Last week: 1-5… woof!
Recap: I, like many, thought the Eagles were going to have their will on offense against the Cowboys shaky defense. Late Spoiler: That didn’t happen.
As I said in the title, this slate of games is weird because while seeding and playoff spots are up for grabs, so many notable players are out today:
First Pick: Calvin Ridley O87.5 receiving yards vs TB (-124)
Fact #1: Ridley has four straight games with 100+ receiving yards, including a matchup two weeks ago against the Bucs (14 targets, 10 catches, 163 yards, TD
Fact #2: Ridley is 137 receiving yards behind Stefon Diggs for the receiving title and the Bills will reportedly be doing what’s best for their “team and their players.” So yes, I’m saying there’s a chance…
Fact #3: The Bucs defense has allowed four different receivers to eclipse 88 rec yards over their last five games. In fact, the lowest of those four tallies is 130 yards by Robert Woods.
Second Pick: Kirk Cousins O22.5 completions (-112) vs DET
Fact #1: Cousins has eclipsed 23+ completions in five straight contests
Fact #2: You may look at the first matchup from Week 9 and have some questions about why Cousins only had 13 completions. The reason is Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison combined for 275 yards and 2 scores on 34 carries.
Fact #3: The only real fear is a trilogy of poor defense from the Lions in this one, which is what caused both Ryan Tannehill (21 comps, 273 yds, 3 TD) and Tom Brady (22 comps, 348 yds, 4 TD) to largely sit out the second half of their games.
So based on fact #3, you should also play Kirk Cousins O2.5 pass TDs (+120)
That is what we call a segue “in the biz”
Fact #1: The Lions defense has allowed a whopping 17 pass TDs over the last five weeks (most in NFL) with 0 INT!
Which leads us to the next segue…
Fourth pick is Vikings Team Total O28.5 points (-107)
Fact #1: The Lions have allowed 30+ in five straight contests.
Fifth Pick is Mike Glennon O20.5 completions vs IND (+100)
Fact #1: The Colts have allowed an average of 27.4 completions to QBs over the last five weeks
Fact #2: The only way Mike Glennon doesn’t hit 21 completions is him being benched for Minshew, which better not happen.