Tag: Bears

Lets Gamble! NFL Week 2

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All our betting lines are courtesy of CBS Sports so blame them if the numbers change. Anyways its time to start playing fast and loose with our paychecks now that the NFL season is here. Introducing our new weekly NFL gambling column, LETS GO!

Texans (0-1) at Bengals (0-1), Thursday
Opening line: Bengals, -3 points

I expect a bounce back game from the Bengals, especially with so many Texans players getting hurt on Sunday and of course Brian Cushing will miss the game as he got popped for PEDs again. Not to mention the Texans have a rookie making his first career start on a short week. Take the Bengals and take the points.

Jets (0-1) at Raiders (1-0)
Opening line: Raiders, -14 points

14 points is a TON of points to cover and I just don’t feel confident laying my hard earned cash on the line betting the Raiders win by more than TDs. Look for the Raiders to get ahead and then hand off to Marshawn Lynch all game. Take the Jets to cover.

Browns (0-1) at Ravens (1-0)
Opening line: Ravens, -7.5 points

The Browns actually looked surprisingly competent last week, nearly upsetting the Steelers. Did the Ravens look good last week or did the Bengals really play that bad? Hard to say, especially with the Ravens losing Danny Woodhead last week. I would bet against the Browns putting up solid games in back to back weeks until I see it happen so I’m going with the Ravens to cover here.

Cardinals (0-1) at Colts (0-1)
Opening line: Cardinals, -7.5 points

Holy shit the Colts are even worse than we though and may even be starting former Pats 3rd string QB Jacoby Brissett in this one. The Colts are a full blown disaster without Andrew Luck. Take the Cardinals and enjoy your winnings.

Patriots (0-1) at Saints (0-0)
Opening line: Patriots, -4.5 points

-4.5 points? I would HAMMER the Patriots in this game, there’s no way the Pats don’t win by at least a touchdown coming off that shit show in Week 1 against the Chiefs. Bet the house on it.

Vikings (1-0) at Steelers (1-0)
Opening line: Steelers, -7 points

This is probably the toughest game of the week. Minnesota looked excellent on Monday night and so did Sam Bradford. I think the Vikings keep it close and cover.

Dolphins (0-0) at Chargers (0-1)
Opening line: Chargers, -4 points

Chargers are coming off a 3-point loss to a top defense in Denver while the Dolphins are opening the season with their new QB Jay Cutler. I think Cutler is better than people give him credit for, but its his first game on a new team, lets go with the Chargers to cover.

Titans (0-1) at Jaguars (1-0)
Opening line: Titans, -1 point

I think the Titans and Marcus Mariota in particular bounce back this week, plus with a -1 point spread I’m taking the Titans. The Jags want to play a ball control offense and run it with Leonard Fournette, but I got the Duck this week.

Eagles (1-0) at Chiefs (1-0)
Opening line: Chiefs, -4 points

Nelson Agholor and Carson Wentz both looked to finally be on the same page and had a big week together last week, but after watching the Chiefs stomp the Patriots I’m taking Kansas City here. Alex Smith is not gonna throw for 300+ yards and 4 TDs again, but Kareem Hunt is the real deal. KC covers.

Bears (0-1) at Buccaneers (0-0)
Opening line: Buccaneers, -6 points

The Bears nearly topped the defending Super Bowl loser in the Atlanta Falcons, boosted by rookie Tarik Cohen’s explosive game. -6 points is a lot, but I like the Bucs behind Jameis Winston, Mike Evans and new toy Desean Jackson. Lets go with the Bucs to cover.

Redskins (0-1) at Rams (1-0)
Opening line: Rams, -2.5 points

The Rams looked like a competent offense in Sean McVay’s debut, but they also were playing the god awful Colts in Week 1. The R-words bumbled their way to a loss against the Eagles so I anticipate a bounce back game from them and a big game from Terrell Pryor. R-words cover.

Cowboys (1-0) at Broncos (0-0)
Opening line: Cowboys, -2.5 points

Another tough game to pick, but as long as Zeke keeps dodging that suspension I’m riding the Boys. The Broncos had to eke one out against San Diego last week, so I think the Cowboys cover here.

49ers (0-1) at Seahawks (0-1)
Opening line: Seahawks, -12.5 points

This is gonna be a long season for the 49ers as they embark on a long rebuild. The Seahawks did not look great last week as the offensive line is still a disaster and the musical chairs at RB continue. I think Seattle gets on track this week but 13 points is a big spread, so I’m taking San Fran to cover.

Packers (1-0) at Falcons (1-0)
Opening line: Falcons, -2.5 points

I’m taking the Packers all day on this. Green Bay’s offense looked great in the second half against Seattle last week and the Falcons look primed for a Super Bowl hangover.

Lions (1-0) at Giants (0-1), Monday
Opening line: Giants, -5 points

This all depends on ODB availability. If he’s in the game I’m taking the Giants to cover, but if he’s not I’m taking the Lions to win outright. The G-Men looked hapless without their blonde burner so keep close tabs on that.

Smokin Jay Cutler is Back!

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You thought this guy was going to go quietly into the night? I don’t think so. Not if there’s a $10 million offer on the table from the Miami Dolphins. I think Jay Cutler is a better QB than he’s ever gotten credit for, but I also think his biggest problem has always been perception. He looks like a guy that does not give a shit and doesn’t really want to play. Whether thats actually true or not nobody except maybe Kristin Cavallari knows, but hey perception is reality.

Which is why Cutler signing with the Dolphins is very interesting. Its the best team he’s been on, at least offensively, in years plus its in the warm and comfortable city of Miami. Maybe he puts the Menthols down for a few months and has a mini career resurgence a la Kurt Warner in Arizona. Or maybe he collects $10 Million to half-ass a season before going into the FOX booth.

Cutler started his career off as a promising young QB, then became salty as fuck when new Denver coach Josh McDaniels tried to trade him for Matt Cassel, forced a trade, landed with the Bears, played pretty well there for a couple of years with Brandon Marshall, then the team started to get worse before bottoming out last year and becoming a complete dumpster fire. Add all that to the fact that Chicago is a miserably cold city during the football season and I can see how Smokin Jay Cutler was born.

BUT, Cutler’s also only thrown for 4,000+ yards once in a season, and thrown 25+ TDs 3 times in 10 years. For a quick AFC East comparison, Tom Brady has thrown for 4,000+ yards 8 different times and has thrown 25+ TDs 12 times in his career. So Tom Brady he is not.

But the Dolphins don’t really need him to be. They just need him to be similar, if not better, than the level of production they were getting out of Ryan Tannehill. I think its a pretty safe bet to assume most Dolphins fans are pretty lukewarm on Tannehill. He’s been good, not great. He hasn’t made the jump to a top tier QB like most hoped he would. Again for comparisons sake, Tannehill has thrown for 4,000+ yards twice in five years and thrown 25+ TDs just once in his career. His career completion percentage of 62.7 is just a tick higher than Cutler’s 61.9. Tannehill is more mobile, but the difference is not as much as you would think. The last four years Tannehill has rushed for 164, 141, 311, 238 and 211 yards (4.9 Yards per Attempt for his career) with 6 TDs. In that same timespan Cutler has rushed for 24 (limited to 5 games by injury), 201, 191, 118, and 233 (4.5 Yards per Attempt for his career) with 3 TDs. So not a huge difference.

My point is the Dolphins aren’t completely and totally fucked. Cutler is not Tom Brady, but he’s better than most people think.

Okay, okay, you want to see how he stacks up against the most famous free agent QB ever in Colin Kaepernick too? Despite his gazelle like speed, Kaepernick “only” averages 6.1 Yards per Rushing Attempt. People remember those who huge runs in the playoffs a few years back and it skews perception. In the 2012 playoffs he rushed for 264 yards and in the 2013 playoffs he rushed for 243 yards and 4 total TDs, which is 9.9 Yards per Attempt). Overall though? Not that much better. Not so much better you want to deal with bitchy questions from everyone holding a microphone for the next 6 months. His passing stats? Career completion percentage of 59.8 (lower than both Cutler and Tannehill). He’s never thrown for 4,000+ yards. He’s never thrown for 3,500+ yards. Never threw 25+ TDs, he’s only topped 20 once. Kaepernick obviously has a much smaller sample size of games started than Cutler, but those are the numbers guys.

So if anything the Dolphins will be interesting to watch, assuming Jay Cutler wants to do more than just collect a paycheck. But if he truly just wanted to snake another check, Cutler could have signed with the Jets months ago. Maybe he sees a legit opportunity here with Miami. The Patriots have had the AFC East on lock for a while now so its not like they will suddenly contend for the division. But similar to the Vikings getting Sam Bradford last year, except much better because Miami didn’t have to give up a FIRST round draft pick to get Cutler, brining in a solid, veteran QB probably keeps them in contention for a Wild Card spot. Smokin Jay Cutler is back indeed.