NOTE FROM BIG Z: I wrote this piece almost five years ago. Tonight is the first Game 7 in any sport since I wrote this piece. I think it holds up quite well. One nugget to add – road teams across the NHL, NBA and MLB have won six straight Game 7’s going back to the 2014 World Series. The road team has won the last three Stanley Cup Final Game 7’s. The last home team to hoist the Cup after a Game 7 was the 2006 Hurricanes.
The @Nationals made history tonight with their first ever franchise win! What a comeback. What a series. We love this game. ⚾️ pic.twitter.com/t2ddjgsoe6
As I’m sure you heard last night, this 2019 World Series was the first best-of-seven postseason series in the history of major North American sports where the road team won all seven games. Pretty remarkable. What’s also remarkable is how well road teams have fared in winner-take-all Game 7’s over the past decade. Not all that long ago you could bet your house on the home team in Game 7. Not any more.
When the Pittsburgh Penguins won Game 7 of the 2009 Stanley Cup Final they were the first team in any of the North American major men’s sports leagues to win a Game 7 of a championship round on the road since, fittingly, the Pittsburgh Pirates won Game 7 of the World Series on the road in 1979. For nearly 30 years, no road team won a championship round Game 7 on the road.
For the Penguins, they were the first NHL team to win a Stanley Cup Final Game 7 on the road since 1971. During the 38 years in between, road teams were 0-6 in Stanley Cup Final Game 7’s. Since 2009, road teams are 3-0 in Stanley Cup Final Game 7’s.
The San Francisco Giants got Major League Baseball road teams off the Game 7 schneid in 2014, when they defeated the Kansas City Royals in Game 7 of the World Series in Kansas City. In between the 1979 Pirates and 2014 Giants, road teams were 0-9 in World Series Game 7’s. Since 2014, road teams are 4-0 in Game 7 of the World Series.
More recently, the Cleveland Cavaliers got NBA teams of the Game 7 schneid when they defeated the Golden State Warriors in Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals. The last NBA team to win Game 7 of the Finals on the road had been the Washington Bullets in 1978. In the 38 years between, road teams went 0-6 in Game 7’s. The 2016 NBA Finals was the last NBA Finals to go seven games.
Across all three leagues (because the NFL, obviously, does not play series), no road team won a Game 7 in the 1980s (0-for-7) or the 1990s (0-for-4). Road teams were nearly blanked in the 2000s (1-for-8), too, until the 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins won the Cup in Detroit. That means road teams lost a mind boggling 18-straight winner-take-all Game 7’s. They’re 7-3 this decade, and have won the most recent Game 7’s in all three leagues. That includes the last NBA Finals Game 7, the last three Stanley Cup Final Game 7’s and the last four World Series Game 7’s.
After losing 18-straight Game 7’s from 1982-2006, road teams in all three leagues are 8-3 in championship round Game 7’s since. So what changed? Some ideas:
Air travel is much easier today than it was in 1984 when the Lakers had to fly to Boston for a Game 7 in the (presumably 94°) Boston Garden (the NBA still followed a 2-2-1-1-1 format at that time). The Cleveland Cavaliers probably had a bit of an easier time flying to the Bay Area in 2016 when they defeated the Warriors on the road in Game 7.
With more players changing teams more frequently, there may be less of a home-field advantage. Justin Verlander didn’t pitch in Game 7 on the road in in 2017, but hear me out. He got traded from Detroit to Houston on August 31st that year. If he had pitched in Game 7 of the World Series in LA, would it have been much different for him than if he had pitched in a Game 7 in Houston? He was traded there less than two months earlier. I know that athletes don’t live like us, but his pad in Houston in October 2017 was probably more like Ryan Bingham’s condo than he would care to admit. He probably wasn’t rolling out of bed in a mansion in Houston at that time before he rolled up to the ballpark. Derek Jeter, on the other hand, had quite the home field advantage. In 80 career playoff games at home he hit .332 in with 12 home runs and 29 RBI in 322 at bats. In 78 road playoff games, he hit .284 with just 8 home runs and 27 RBI in 328 at bats. Playing for one team for 20 years gets you a really nice routine, I suppose.
It seems as if home teams have been awfully tight at home in Game 7’s recently. The Bruins at home against the Blues just four months ago seems like a pretty good example of that. I don’t know how/why the psychology of playing at home would change over the last decade, but maybe fans tweeting on their phones all game and taking selfies has changed the energy levels in these venues? That would certainly seem to hurt the home teams more than the road teams.
A combination of point #1 and #3. With air travel being easier (and cheaper) than ever, maybe more fans are following their teams on the road for Game 7? I bet the Boston Garden was 98% Celtics fans in 1984’s Game 7. What percentage of Minute Maid Park last night was Nationals fans? I’m not sure, but I bet it was substantially more than 2%. That could certainly change the vibe of a building, too.
Whatever the reason, one thing is certain. Boy am I glad I don’t bet on baseball.
If pitchers and catchers report to spring training, but no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?
It’s one thing for fans to be down on a franchise coming off another last place finish, but after an offseason of inactivity, even the national media is smoking this team.
USA Today has the Red Sox sitting at No. 19 in their power rankings, which seems a bit high, but also denotes the ranking is tied to expected hopeful reinforcements being added to the squad. They also gave the Sox a D grade for their offseason so it any sense of optimism comes with a grain of salt.
Yahoo! Sports did not mince words in their prediction of the potential dumpster fire on Landsdowne:
Season prediction: The Red Sox are worse than bad; they are forgettable and irrelevant. Their unwillingness to spend predictably backfires, and the pivot from former head honcho Chaim Bloom to Breslow doesn’t change all that much. The lack of superstardom beyond Devers (and Casas) leads to dwindling interest in the team, and by August, the city of Boston is watching preseason football. Very few people watch the Netflix doc, which, given the circumstances of the season, paints the Red Sox as a disorganized jambalaya of chaos.
So yes the Red Sox are projected to finish last in the AL East by just about everyone, which would accomplish a rare feat for the Sox as that would make it four times in five years and six out of the last 10! If they were to finish in last place yet again, that would mean the Boston Red Sox, over the course of a DECADE, finished in last place 60 percent of the time.
That is absurd.
Compare that to the Orioles who are only going to get better as a team stocked with young talent that already won 101 games last year, the Yankees improved by trading for Juan Soto, the Rays are coming off a 99 win season and always seem to find a way to win 90+ games, and the Blue Jays snatched away one of Boston’s few good players, adding Justin Turner to a team that finished 11 games ahead of the Red Sox last season.
Meanwhile the Sox offseason consisted of whiffing on Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and second tier guys like Aaron Nola in free agency while not even kicking the tires on reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell or World Series hero Jordan Montgomery, who as we all know has literally been hanging out in Boston all winter.
Are either one of Snell or Montgomery take it to the bank, guaranteed 30 starts and sub 3.50 ERA guys? No, but signing one of them would at least be signaling to the fan base that you’re going to at least try and be competitive and hopefully get some productive years out of players with legitimate track records.
Boston also traded its only representable defender in the outfield in Alex Verdugo to the Yankees, while letting productive veterans Turner and Adam Duvall walk for peanuts. They traded away oft injured, yet default ace Chris Sale in a salary dump for a second baseman in Vaughn Grissom who on his absolute best day profiles as a Dan Uggla cosplay. The Sox did bring in Lucas Giolito, who is now probably out for the season with a UCL tear, but this is the man who is best known for surrendering an absolutely preposterous 41 home runs in 2023. You wouldn’t hit that many dingers playing home run derby in Ken Griffey Jr. Baseball.
One of the highlights of the offseason was the Red Sox signing Liam Hendriks and the team Instagram pretending like it’s 2022 All-Star closer Liam Hendriks and not out (at least) through half of the 2024 season Liam Hendriks as he recovers from Tommy John.
Unsurprisingly John Henry declined to speak to the media at the start of Spring Training once again, which extends his vow of silence in official interviews all the way back to the post-Mookie Betts trade press conference. So Sam Kennedy once again stepped in as Henry’s stunt double, taking all the body blows. I was however shocked to hear Kennedy drop the nugget that yes ownership has in fact set parameters for new head of baseball ops Craig Breslow and he is operating within those parameters.
Breslow when asked why he didn’t sign any notable free agents in his first offseason:
What a wild, wild thing for ownership to let slip, essentially acknowledging huge expectations from the fan base, a vaunted history of success over the past 20 years, yet they will actually be shedding payroll. They actively cut payroll by 20% as if Boston isn’t a major market.
The Red Sox are going to be rolling the Six Million Dollar Man onto the field on April 9th
Rather than building for the short term and the long term in tandem, the Red Sox will instead rely on teenagers, minor leaguers, and top prospects all coming up through the system at around the same time (in the near to distant future) and all producing out of the gate like established big leaguers, and quickly becoming all-stars around the same time, and winning a World Series or four, all doing so before any of them can reach arbitration and ask for a raise.
Although it’s currently still 36 degrees outside, Opening Day at Fenway marks the real end of winter in Boston and despite the Red Sox projected wins total, it’s impossible to be in a bad mood today. In order to truly and fully move on to 2023 though, first we must take a look back at last season.
To be fair, the Sox were coming off a 92 win season in 2021 and an electric ALCS appearance so I may have gotten wrapped up in the hype a little bit.
This year expectations are, to put it nicely, circling the drain already as the consensus has the Red Sox finishing in last place for the second year in a row. With that being said, let’s not lose sight of all the positives that came out of the disappointing (and confusing) 2022 season. To fully appreciate the full picture of last year, take a look at the 5 Best and 5 Worst Parts of Another Red Sox Last Place Finish.
But, as they famously like to say, if you don’t laugh, you’ll cry.
So with that in mind, have a good deep belly laugh at some of the wildest moments, reflect on the bittersweet moments, get excited about the potential shown, and fire up some game day dogs for Opening Day baby!
The Boston Red Sox are once again at a crossroads when it comes to their organizational philosophy, which is something fans have heard before. The Sox are seemingly stuck between being the free spending free agency big players of yesteryear and the fiscally responsible, efficient, consistent machine they want to become.
The only problem with trying to find and capitalize on every market inefficiency is the boom or bust nature of doing so. Moneyball was the monster hit it was and something that made the sport cool to a generation of baseball “outsiders” because it took something nobody was investing in and spun it into a game in of itself; an entire team building philosophy for organizations. Except, the Red Sox knew that you couldn’t rely on the idea Moneyball alone or else they’d end up like the Oakland A’s; consistently pretty good but not enough star power to push a team over the finish line. So the Sox supplemented OBP diamonds in the rough like Kevin Youkilis and homegrown studs like Dustin Pedroia with highly paid superstars like Ortiz, Schilling, Damon, Foulke, Beckett and on and on.
Now this isn’t to say the team needs to abandon any notion of being creative while opting instead to sign every top tier free agent and trade away every Baseball America darling to essentially buy a World Series. Nor does the team need to go the complete opposite way and try to compete with a model that the Tampa Bay Rays have tried (and failed) to win with for decades.
But there has to be a balance.
The Sox have had Ben Cherington, Dave Dombrowski, and Chaim Bloom all in charge of building this team at various points over the past eight years. Three GMs/Head of Baseball Ops/Chief Baseball Officer or whatever you want to call it these days in eight years is going to make it difficult to find a consistent organizational philosophy and stick to it. Dombrowski and Bloom in particular could not be more antithetical from each other in terms of philosophy.
This goes all the way back to 2014 when the Sox opted to trade Jon Lester to the A’s when they realized they weren’t going to be able to resign him after failed negotiations. Lester then signed with the Cubs in December of 2014 for more than double what the Sox had initially offered him.
The Red Sox had seemingly adopted an organizational philosophy that they don’t sign players on the wrong side of 30 to mega contracts because the value just isn’t there. Not something I agreed with, but sure at least there’s a plan in place. (This is a notion that John Henry has bristled at as an overreaction from fans to comments he made in a 2014 Bloomberg Business article.)
In 2015, the Sox finished in last place, 15 games out of first with only one starter on the staff making 30+ starts and that was Wade Miley.
Just one year after Lester joined the Cubs, the Red Sox reversed course and signed 30-year-old David Price to a 7-year $217 million contract, which at the time was the highest average annual salary for a pitcher ever.
Now obviously the Price contract had its ups and downs as did the 4-year $67.5 deal for Nathan Eovaldi, as has the 5-year $145 extension for Chris Sale. There are pros and cons to building entirely through the farm system and market inefficiencies just like there are pros and cons (albeit more costly cons) of prioritizing top tier free agents.
With Xander Bogaerts skipping town for warmer weather and an astronomical $280 million payday in San Diego, the attention now turns to the impending free agency of another homegrown star in Rafael Devers. As Bloom was recently quoted on Rob Bradford’s podcast, the Sox are willing to resign Devers “if there’s something within reason, or even a little outside of reason.” As history has shown, reasonable may not be enough to get it done with a player of Devers’ caliber. After seeing what Bogaerts got paid, the Sox may have already soured on the idea of spending the dollars that a Devers deal will command, but the market is the market.
As Bill Belichick once famously said, “It’s just our job to do business as business is being done.”
It’s time for the Red Sox to truly decide what they want to be. Pleasing everybody simply isn’t possible, but frequently altering course every few years is a sure-fire way to anger everyone. So whichever direction it decides to go, the team needs to swallow hard and rip the band-aid off, commit to a course of action, burn the boats. Pick whichever figure of speech you prefer.
Whether we’re watching Rafael Devers playing in Petco Park or Fenway Park in 2024 will be the clear anemometer for the Boston Red Sox.
The Red Sox are fresh off of their fifth last place finish in the past 11 seasons. That is absolutely insane for a team with the resources it has and the scrutiny the Sox face year in and year out. Obviously you can’t win the World Series every year and nobody expects that, but you better believe Red Sox fans expect a playoff team every year. Or at the very least a team that is pushing for a playoff spot and not something half the city tuned out in August.
As the baseball season continues for the more fortunate and we all turn our attention to the Bruins and Celtics, I figured what better time to breakdown the 5 Best and 5 Worst parts of this disastrous season? I won’t lie, it was significantly easier (and faster) to make the 5 Worst List than the 5 Best, but as much of a flaming dumpster this season turned into let’s not lose sight of every positive development.
5 Best Parts of the 2022 Red Sox Season
1.) The Youth Movement Has Officially Arrived
The Sox had what some called the worst farm system in all of baseball just a few years ago to being ranked No. 11 in MLB this season. Great, hooray, lets throw a party, I know I know, BUT that tree is starting to bear fruit at the major league level. It’s still early as all three of these guys made their debut in 2022, but Brayan Bello, Triston Casas and to a lesser extent Kutter Crawford showed they are ready to produce at the big league level. Beyond that, there were legitimate showcases of some seriously elite budding talent at Fenway this season.
Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds say that Brayan Bello’s changeup reminds them of Pedro Martínez.
Then you add in Triston Casas, who has shown *prodigious* power and plate discipline along with a really calming influence over at first base defensively. Now we’re cooking with gas.
Top it off with young guys like Tanner Houck (3.15 ERA) and Kutter Crawford (led the rotation in SO/9) and the Red Sox suddenly have some legitimate young talent on their roster, which is something they’ve struggled to restock in recent years.
2.) This Team Isn’t *Too* Far Off
This isn’t a roster that is so bad that it requires a complete tear down. In fact the Red Sox aren’t all that far off from returning to serious contention. Despite their complete cratering after the All-Star break, they were one of the top 3 teams in the AL in the first half so with a couple of key moves in free agency (read: open the damn wallet) and some (any) actual good fortune with injuries, this team could be right back in the mix next year. There will ample opportunity to shore up the rotation this offseason with free agents including guys like Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodón, Just Verlander, Chris Bassitt, and that’s before we mention their own guy Nathan Eovaldi.
As for the lineup, after getting Kike Hernandez back from injury, Casas getting called up, and when Trevor Story is actually healthy, this is still one of the better lineups in baseball when at full Megazord power. Xander Bogaerts and Raffy Devers showcased what the heart of the Red Sox order can look like for the next 5 years IF the team is smart and extends both players.
Obviously when I say “this team isn’t too far off” it implies that only remains the case if they stop pretending to be the Tampa Bay Rays and crack open John Henry’s piggy back, but there is a clear path back to contention.
3.) Garrett Whitlock is the Real Deal
Arguably the biggest pro of the 2022 season was Garrett Whitlock proved his success last year wasn’t just a flash in the pan. However, the Sox did exactly what I didn’t want them to do with Whitlock: jerk him back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation. Shockingly, Whitlock’s body didn’t hold up and he hit the IL multiple times before ending his season early to undergo hip surgery. By all reports it doesn’t seem like a major surgery so he should be fine for next season, but the Sox *have* to pick a role for Whitlock and stick to it. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I want him in the rotation. I understand the game has changed and there is less of an emphasis on starters, less pitchers going through a lineup three or more times, and a greater value placed on middle relievers. But that doesn’t change the fact that a top of the line starter is going to give you 200 innings vs maybe half that for a workhorse reliever. Whitlock is incredibly valuable out of the bullpen because he is lights out, but that value was magnified because the Sox just didn’t have many other reliable relievers to turn to this year. Shore up the bullpen with actual, legitimate additions, set Whitlock up to be a top of the rotation starter and lets go.
4.) Michael Wacha Was a Revelation
If you recall, I was not all that optimistic about Wacha coming to Boston because it had been a while since he was an effective MLB starting pitcher. But, I am not afraid to admit when I am wrong and when healthy (my god I am saying that a lot today), Michael Wacha was arguably the best starter on the team. Wacha finished the season at 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA in 127.1 IP and 104 strikeouts. Having signed a one-year contract for this season, the Sox need to bring this guy back.
Simply put, this is the Chaim Bloom experience. Bloom’s roster management is reminiscent of me walking into Marhsall’s. Sometimes I find really solid workout clothes that are comfortable, affordable, and even name brand. Sometimes I buy a pair of jeans for $12 dollars that rip right down the middle after a couple of times wearing them, ya know because they’re $12 jeans. Once in a while I get a real gem, like the time I found a rare throwback red Patriots Tom Brady jersey for just $20. So there are days I find absolute gold for $20, other times I walk out with an absolute piece of shit that I know I’m probably never going to wear more than once. But like Chaim Bloom, I’m never going to stop shopping at Marshall’s. In case this was too dense to read through, Michael Wacha is the red Brady jersey and the $12 jeans are the $10 million James Paxton contract (0 IP in 2022).
5.) Uhh..
5 Worst Parts of the 2022 Red Sox Season
1.) Finished in Last Place, Yet Again
The Boston #RedSox finished last just once from 1933-2011.
The Sox (72-81) now are on verge of finishing last for the 5th time in 11 years.
It certainly has been feast or famine for Sox during this stretch: 4 first place finishes. 2 World Series titles. 5 last-place finishes.
As I mentioned earlier in this blog, this is the fifth time the Red Sox have finished in the basement in the last 11 seasons. If the two World Series titles sprinkled in over that same period have caused people to overlook the low times, then the tweet above should hit you like a sledgehammer. The wild fluctuation of this franchise from top of the mountain to dumpster fire year after year would be impressive if it weren’t so maddening. For a team with a $200M+ payroll it’s just not acceptable to finish in last place. In fairness the division is much improved from the days when it was a two team race between the Sox and the Yankees back in the day, but the Sox finished a whopping 21 games out of first place.
2.) Absolute Abysmal Record vs AL East
This division has grown into one of the toughest in all of baseball, but the Sox got absolutely walloped by their division rivals this year, going 26-50 vs the AL East. If you can’t keep pace with your peers, take advantage of a distinct home field advantage at Fenway, AND finish behind the perpetually rebuilding Orioles, then something is seriously wrong.
3.) Chris Sale Injured Yet Again
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, just wait until Chris Sale is back, Chris Sale will be better than any trade deadline deal, the Chris Sale injury isn’t considered significant etc. etc. I love Chris Sale so this isn’t Sale Slander, but at 33-years-old and after six(!) years in Boston, he is what he is at this point in his career. Coming back from another offseason injury (broken rib, Tommy John, take your pick) Sale pitched only 5.2 innings this year after a comebacker broke his pinky in just his second start back. I actually felt bad for Sale after this one because it’s just one thing after the next for a guy who clearly relishes pitching in Boston and just wants to be on the mound. With that being said, anything the team gets from Sale here on out has to be considered gravy; not something the team can rely on. In 2021 Sale pitched just 42.2 innings, 0 IP in 2020, 147.1 Ip in 2019, 158 IP in 2018, and 214.1 IP in 2017.
It doesn’t take an economics degree to see the trend line there.
So while I love Sale, I am not banking on him to be the savior of this rotation anymore. It’s negligent to do so at this point. The Sox need to act as if he’s not coming back and build a pitching staff that if Sale does come back healthy then the team will have a good problem finding him some innings. We’ve seen he can still be a highly effective pitcher, he just isn’t someone the team can bank on for volume.
And it wasn’t just Sale either, injuries absolutely killed this team with a ton of games missed by him, Kike Hernandez, Trevor Story, Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Whitlock and others. If this team can get a little bit of luck with health next season then it’ll make a world of difference.
4.) Somehow STILL Finished Over the Luxury Tax
This is probably the most inexcusable part of the entire last place finish. If you want to clear up dead money and acquire some lottery ticket prospects in the meantime, fine. If your owner ties your hands because of luxury tax penalties so you can’t make any big money moves until the books are in order, then fine. But all of those moves are only tolerated by fans because of the promise that it’s building to something in the near future. To finish in last place, trade away key players, let key free agents walk, and STILL finish over the luxury tax that is the definition of insanity. Moves like eating JBJ’s salary just to scoop up a couple of prospects did not help, made only worse by Bradley playing so poorly that the team ultimately released him. Compare that to the guy we traded away for him in Hunter Renfroe having a career year (28 HR and counting) for a fraction of the price. Oof.
5.) Chaim Bloom’s Plan
In fairness, Bloom does seem to be caught between a rock and a hard place. He now runs a BIG market team and works for an owner who loves to be frugal and efficient and smarter than everyone else, yet is *notorious* for flip flopping on organizational philosophies. Remember the whole mantra about how the Red Sox don’t commit big deals to pitchers over 30? That quote got raked over the coals when the Sox finished in last place their first year without 30+ year old Jon Lester (who flourished for Theo Epstein’s Cubs), and the team immediately signed 30-year-old David Price to a 7-year $217M contract. So I get it that his boss may be moving the goal posts on him a bit, but we are now three years into the Chaim Bloom experience.
It is truly put up or shut up time for Chaim Bloom because I do not want to hear any more talk about his five year plan.
It’s been an up and down tenure for the new face of the Red Sox as the team was surprisingly successful last year reaching the ALCS with a team nobody expected a deep run from. Then came the regrettable Hunter Renfroe trade, the bad gambles on injured free agents, playing stiffs at first base for two years while not even bothering to try and resign Kyle Schwarber (46 HRs for the Phillies and headed for the World Series), the near mutiny in the clubhouse when they didn’t bring in any reinforcements this year, dumping Christian Vazquez, attaching top prospect Jay Groome instead of eating salary in the Eric Hosmer deal, the lowball offer to Xander Bogaerts followed by an entire season of drama and I can go on and on and on.
October 28th marks three years since the Red Sox hired Bloom so its time for the drastic organizational shift away from the Dave Dombrowski (also World Series bound with the Phillies) philosophy to start showing dividends.
Bonus No. 6) Dennis Eckersley Retiring
I could write 10,000 words about Eck and what an excellent broadcaster he is, but for now I’ll just say what a bummer it is to see him go. It was a surprising announcement from Eck mid-season that this year would be his last as he wants to move back to Cali to be closer to his grandkids and for that I can’t fault him. However, that doesn’t make it any less sad to see him go, which I think hit harder for Sox fans as they’ve now seen Eck, the late great Jerry Remy, and Don Orsillo leave the NESN booth in just the last few years. The Red Sox broadcast has a steep, uphill battle to find a crew that comes even close to the entertainment, energy, and chemistry that those three guys displayed on a nightly basis over the years with whoever was beside them. We’ll miss ya Eck, don’t be a stranger.
The trade deadline has come and gone and the Red Sox seemingly want to have their foot in all camps and be everyone to everyone, which is a superb way to run a business. Are they buyers? Are they sellers? After trading the team’s starting catcher and then picking up a new starting first baseman, Chaim Bloom says why choose just one?
An objective observer would have trouble faulting management for wanting to sell after seeing how dreadful the Sox have performed in recent weeks. After lighting the world on fire in June, the Sox had a catastrophic July dropping them into last place in the AL East. It wasn’t until the final day of the month that a Red Sox starting pitcher earned a win. That is not a typo. Not to mention, they still have yet to win a series against the AL East. Sitting at 53-53 and in last place, this doesn’t seem like a squad destined for October greatness.
On the other hand, this is the goddamn Boston Red Sox. This is a franchise that realistically shouldn’t ever be in the position of selling. It is laughable that a team with the resources of the Red Sox has so frequently hit rock bottom over the last 10+ years. They are 3 games out of the final wild card spot with 56 games left to play, there is zero excuse for a team with a $200M+ payroll to not at least try to make the playoffs. This isn’t the NBA where you have an outside shot at the top pick in the draft by missing the playoffs. Sure you aren’t going to trade away top prospects to bring in rental players to support a team you don’t believe in, but it is hard to fathom punting on the season.
Chaim Bloom argues the Red Sox are in just as good of a position to make the playoffs as they were last week, which isn’t exactly a confidence inspiring comment for a GM to make after a trade deadline.
Let’s recap what the Sox actually did over the last few days to reconstruct their roster.
Traded Christian Vazquez
There’s really no way to defend a major market team trading its starting catcher without any legitimate backup options or young player waiting in the wings. Now obviously the team wasn’t planning on resigning Vazquez so Bloom figured he would maximize the asset and get some prospects for him while he still could. It makes sense in a longer term view, but it hands down hurts this year’s team to trade away your starting catcher who’s having his best season in years. The Sox received two minor league prospects in return, but the move also had its team leader openly questioning the direction of the franchise.
Traded for Eric Hosmer
In a vacuum this is a good move, it legitimately makes the team better, but thats because the Boston Red Sox went the better part of two years without rostering an actual big league first baseman. I was starting to genuinely feel bad for Franchy Cordero after the three error game the other day so it will be nice to have a guy who actually has “1B” written on his trading card finally manning the position again.
It’s important to point out that the Sox only made this move because it fell into their lap though. They only made this move because they got Hosmer for literal pennies on the dollar. Why not make this move in May when it was clear Bobby Dalbec and co. were not cutting it at first base? Because then the move would have cost something. I heard Lou Merloni summarize it aptly saying Bloom is great at taking advantage of other team’s desperation (the Padres had to dump Hosmer after the Soto trade chaos), but has yet to really show a knack for preemptively identifying and targeting big league talent.
To top it off, rather than take on more of Hosmer’s contract to help the Padres shed salary and in return pick up higher rated prospects (as most big market teams do), instead the Sox opted to take on the bare minimum amount of Hosmer’s salary.
According to the Associated Press, the Red Sox owe Eric Hosmer:
If I were an accountant, that would have me running out of the tunnel like Tom Brady shouting obscenities. But I’m not, so I don’t really care that the Sox got a guy for cheap UNLESS they use that money to pay some of their own upcoming free agents. Now the trade off for taking on such little salary is that the Sox instead picked up a couple of lower level prospects AND had to attach their No. 11 ranked prospect in Jay Groome. That move really is the one that set me off. If you want to sell then fine go ahead and sell, but don’t half ass it.
Chaim Bloom can trade everyone on the team to acquire more and more and more lottery ticket prospects so he can continue to play Franchise Mode on his computer. But to then turn around and start dumping your own top prospects just to save money? That should make fans lose their minds. So now the Boston Red Sox, who seemingly want to rebuild the farm system with as many prospects as possible, are sending former first round picks out the door to save a few million dollars.
As Big Z so perfectly put it, “Classic Moneyball move by one of the richest teams in North America.”
Traded Jake Diekman for Reese McGuire
I cry no tears for Diekman, who was a high wire act in the truest sense of the term. He was Bloom’s highest price bullpen offseason addition though so that’s an L for Chaim. As for McGuire, the internet and talk radio has already shredded this guy to pieces for his, um, fondness for Dollar Store parking lots so I’ll just post my joke and move on.
Chaim, this is Reese McGuire. He is a catcher in the Top 10 in Defensive WAR and runners Caught Stealing. His only flaw is that he cannot legally be within 200 feet of a school. #RedSox | #DirtyWater | #MLBpic.twitter.com/CCLYb2MBue
The Sox added Pham for almost literally nothing as they gave the Reds the illustrious “player to be named later or cash considerations” in exchange. Pham has some pop with 11 home runs this year, but is only hitting .238 so not a massive upgrade. He is however the guy that punched Joc Pederson in the face over a fantasy football dispute so he definitely has a bit of an edge!
Released Jackie Bradley Jr.
I was honestly surprised to hear this news today because it seemed like the Sox were so smitten with his defense that JBJ would be penciled into the lineup until someone ripped the lineup card out of Alex Cora’s hands. Let us never forget the otherworldly performance Bradley had in the 2018 ALCS when he picked up MVP honors, but he was a streaky player who’s hot streaks were becoming shorter and further apart every day. He was batting .210 with a negative WAR so while he was a joy to watch in the outfield, a championship caliber team needs more out of an everyday outfielder.
So did this team get better? Did it get worse? Who knows, it kind of seems like a shell game of asset management at this point, but it’s hard to say winning this year was a priority of ownership. The Sox probably weren’t going to win the World Series this year, but nobody expected them to reach the ALCS last year either. My concern is on the direction of the franchise and the overall plan to make this team better. God help me if this team lets Xander Bogaerts walk and/or trades Rafael Devers because I can only handle the Tampa Bay Red Sox blueprint for so long.
If you gave him some truth serum and asked Chaim Bloom when he thinks the Red Sox will contend for a World Series, I imagine his answer would sound something like Cal from the 40 Year Old Virgin.
To be fair, if Bloom and his legion of prospects win a championship down the road then fine, but don’t just punt on this year because you have your eyes on four years from now. You run the Boston Red Sox, don’t be afraid to act like a big market bully once in a while.
After another cold, dark, and suspiciously long winter, this afternoon we get The Masters, game day dogs on the grill, and most importantly, Red Sox Opening Day. I wasn’t sure we’d get here after an extensive lockout, constant news of failed negotiations between the players and the owners, and rainouts delaying games further, but we made it guys. It’s baseball season.
After finishing the season 92-70 last year and making a surprise run to the ALCS expectations are high for this Red Sox team. With one of the best lineups in the game expectations should be high as the Sox look to build on last year’s deep postseason run. This season already has a melancholy vibe to it though because there could be some big changes after the season with JD Martinez, Kike Hernandez, and potentially Xander Bogaerts all hitting free agency. The farm system is back in the Top 10 and the Sox finally opened their wallets with the Trevor Story signing so the franchise is in a good position for the long haul, but it’s definitely win now time down on Jersey Street.
The Duct Tape Rotation
The 2022 pitching staff is a mixed bag that should get better when if everyone can get healthy at the same time, but as it currently sits the rotation has some question marks. The staff includes one legit starter in Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 in 2021) but he comes with a long history of injuries, one potential hidden gem in Nick Pivetta (9-8, 4.53) who’s looking to build off an eye opening postseason run (2.63 ERA, 14 K’s in 13.2 IP), a 25-year-old in Tanner Houck (1-5, 3.52) that the Sox kept the training wheels on a bit last year but shows a ton of potential, and then two old and possibly washed up vets in Michael Wacha, yes that Wacha from the 2013 World Series, (5.05, 6.62, 4.76 ERAs the last 3 seasons) and Rich Hill (7-8, 3.86) at 42-years-young is back in Boston to see how long he can survive throwing 88 mph fastballs. Gone is rotation mainstay Eduardo Rodriguez after the Red Sox deemed him expendable and to be honest E-Rod seemed like he was gone the minute Alex Cora publicly scolded him for celebrating too hard in the middle of an ALCS game. A rare miss for Cora.
Eduardo Rodriguez got an earful from Alex Cora after mocking Carlos Correa’s celebration. 😳
If it sounds like I’m missing someone, you’re right, I haven’t mentioned Chris Sale who somehow cracked a rib last month throwing a baseball. So I hate to pin my hopes on Chris Sale because while has the stuff to be the best pitcher in the game, he he has struggled mightily to stay healthy the last few years. I still blame the Sox for delaying Sale’s March 2020 Tommy John surgery by several months for no particular reason, which ended up costing Sale nearly two full years. After recently being placed on the 60 day IL, Sale is projected to return the first week of June so I’m cautiously optimistic, but when healthy the lefty has the stuff to carry the Sox down the stretch and into the playoffs.
Welcome to Boston, Trevor Story
I love this signing IF Story is indeed slated to be the second baseman of the future. I don’t however love the optics of the Red Sox signing a career shortstop the same exact year that their own franchise shortstop can opt out of his contract and become a free agent. At best it feels like hedging, at worst it feels like the Sox are preemptively moving on from their team’s de facto leader, homegrown All-Star, and 2x World Series champion.
Garrett Whitlock Will Be Key
For those who don’t know, the Red Sox essentially got Garrett Whitlock off the scrap heap, selecting him in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft off the Yankees roster. Coming off Tommy John surgery, Whitlock was nothing less than a revelation for the Sox last year going 8-4 with a 1.96 ERA and racking up 81 strikeouts in 73.1 IP. Like a child of divorce, Whitlock seems to be stuck between what his dad (Alex Cora) and his mom (Chaim Bloom) want him to be as he gets yo-yo’d back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen. It has a striking similarity to the Jonathan Papelbon situation way back in 2006 when Paps came into the league as a starter before getting shifted to the pen for the postseason and ultimately taking the closer reigns from Keith Foulke. Now, I think Whitlock should be a starter because he has all the tools and multiple legit pitches to become a top of the rotation guy. However, baseball as a whole has really devalued top tier starters as analytics have taken over the game and managers routinely pull starters after a couple of times through the batting order. “Openers” used to be something we all laughed at the Rays for sending out relievers to pitch a few innings to start a game instead of a traditional starter. Now you see it all the time. The workhorse ace of a pitching staff is an endangered species. There were only THREE players with more than 200 innings pitched last year in all of baseball!
So perhaps Whitlock has a higher objective value coming out of the pen as the team’s Rover, but I still would rather seem him as a starter. Then again, Papelbon went on to become the greatest closer in team history so what do I know. Let’s not forget that the team did jerk around guys like Daniel Bard who eventually fell apart and the Yankees did the same thing with Joba Chamberlain. I once saw Chamberlain start a game at Fenway where he struck out 11 guys before the Yankees move him back to the pen. Then again he was a dominant reliever and was the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera before also falling apart. So I guess my main point is let’s just make a decision and stick with it rather than hem and haw to the point that the team screws up another young pitcher.
Rafael Devers Poised for Another MVP Season
Contract extension talks have stalled between the Sox and Bogaerts and Devers so that’s been a bit of a downer heading into the season. Devers just turned 25 in October and posted a season of 38 HR, 113 RBI while hitting .279/.352/.538 last year. He led the Red Sox in HR, RBI, Runs, Hits, Total Bases, Slugging and OPS en route to his first All-Star selection and finishing 11th in MVP voting. No player has more extra base hits than Rafael Devers over the last three seasons. Get. The. Deal. Done.
“We are talking cheapies here. The big boys came through.” – Eck
Matt Barnes was an All-Star last season lest anyone forget after his second half ERA of 6.48 and ya know being left off the ALCS roster. It didn’t help that Barnes seemingly fell apart right around the time the Spider Tack story broke and was suddenly explicitly banned. Maybe it was just a mental thing and he needed a full winter away from the ballpark to reset, but I’m not exactly penciling Barnes in for 40 saves this year. Whitlock could step in and handle the role, but again with baseball overindexing in middle relief guys, the Sox may not want to pigeonhole Whitlock to 1-inning outings. Cora has gone out of his way to not name a closer, which is fine, but I don’t love a revolving door at the end of games.
“They don’t want to call it closer by committee so they’re not gonna use that term is because they know theres a negative connotation. The reason Cora hasn’t named a closer is because they’re not going to use one.” – Tony Mazz on 98.5
It seems like the Sox are just throwing arms against the wall to see what sticks and that could be a problem, but then again relievers are notoriously fickle. So the team will need to define some roles in the pen, but expect the Sox to be active in the reliever market if Barnes and co. don’t bounce back.
This is a Flawed But Dangerous Team
Vegas has the over/under set for the 2022 Red Sox at 85.5 after winning 92 last year. With a loaded lineup that will mash its way to a ton of wins on its own and a potentially sneaky good bullpen, the Sox should be a lock to hit the over. The rotation could be a disaster if there are any more injuries, but with Sale due back in June they should be good enough at the front end. The only thing that could hinder them is how the AL East has seemingly become the best division in baseball. Vegas has the Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays all projected to win more games than the Sox this season, which Boston is intimately aware of after all-time classic playoff battles against the Yankees and Rays just last fall. With all that being said, I like my chances with a lineup featuring Kike Hernandez, Rafael Devers, Xander Boagaerts, JD Martinez, Alex Verdugo, Trevor Story, and even Bobby Dalbec if he keeps up his second half surge from last season. I think this team will definitely need to add an outfield bat if they’re going to reach the World Series because I love former ALCS MVP Jackie Bradley’s defense, but the man did hit .163 in his lone season with the Brewers last year. Maybe that bat off the bench comes in the form of top prospect Triston Casas, but even then, the kid plays first base. So Chaim will likely need to find an OF bat at the deadline in the same vein as Steve Pearce if the Sox are to go the distance.
Media predictions are all over the place too so nobody knows what to expect from this team. The Ringer has the Sox as the 12th ranked team in baseball behind the Jays, Rays and Yankees, Felger has the Sox winning 95 games, and Chris Gasper has called the upcoming season a bridge year. Then again media predictions are just that, fugazi attempts at defining a team before the first pitch of Opening Day. A lot of people picked the Sox to finish a distant 4th in the division last year, but the team clicked and ended up winning 92 games en route to the ALCS.
With the addition of a healthy Chris Sale I have this team winning 95 games this year, which should be enough to get them into the new 12-team playoff format. Is this a World Series winning team? I’m not sold on that without some additions, but this should be a team that is threatening for the pennant.
While my life would not be terribly impacted by a protracted baseball labor dispute, it is good to see that we will be getting a relatively normal baseball season this year. While the season may be starting a few days later than originally planned, I consider that win. Who wants to watch baseball in Cleveland in March anyway? My ideal opening day is actually the same day as the NCAA men’s basketball National Championship game. It won’t work out that way this year, but if it gets us out of Cleveland in March I’ll take it.
It’ll be good to have more than a dozen games to choose from on most nights. I’d rather watch a few innings of a Cubs/Cardinals game than scroll to the bottom of Netflix just to watch “The Comeback” for the 300th time.
Also, I’ll be a part of that thirty-something bachelor party Joe talked about a few weeks ago (no word if I’m a Stu or a Phil) and am thankful that baseball will be played that weekend. It’s always nice to have a sporting event to build those weekends around. Especially in flyover country. It’ll be a hell of a lot cheaper to put back some beers at a baseball game I won’t pay attention to than at a country music concert I won’t pay attention to (which was the backup plan).
But in addition to just getting baseball back, and some important financial gains for players, it sounds like there will be some improvements to the on-field product as well. A subtitle for this CBA could well be The Base Ball Modernization Act of 2022.
I am all in favor of the Universal Designated Hitter. If Shohei Ohtani wants to hit on days he pitches, he still can! That is fun to watch, and it’s always fun to see a pitcher go deep! But that so rarely happened. Most plate appearances for pitchers were perfunctory bunts, strikeouts, or groundouts. This adds more action to the game by replacing these plate appearances with more competitive plate appearances. It also speeds the game up by reducing pinch hitters and pitching changes.
I could go either way on expanded playoffs. A 12-team playoff sure beats a 14 or 16-team playoff, though. I’ll miss the potential for chaos with no more tiebreaker games, but if that means the playoffs can start the day after the regular season ends I’m for it. Also of note, the playoff teams in each league will not be reseeded after the first round. Not sure why hockey and football reseed, while basketball and now baseball don’t, but I am firmly against reseeding. If #8 beats #1, they shouldn’t be rewarded with #2 in the next round. They’ve earned the right to take on the #4/#5 winner.
Starting in 2023, every team will play every other team every year. This is a huge step forward. While it might not mean every team visits every stadium each year, at least you’ll get to see everyone else at least once. There’s no need to play half of your games against your four divisional opponents any more. Variety in scheduling is good, and allows MLB to schedule more creatively if/when necessary. Red Sox fans in Colorado and Phoenix rejoice!
Also in 2023 we could see larger bases, the dreaded pitch clock, and the shift banned. I have absolutely no opinion on the size of the bases. I do not care. I don’t love the pitch clock, but it has become a necessity. I am 100% in favor of banning the shift. You can’t play zone defense in the NBA. You can’t drill the center on special teams plays in the NFL. Ban the shift, improve the game, and move on.
It took longer to get a deal done than fans and players wanted, but it seems like there is enough here to make it worth it. I’m ready for winter to be over and to throw back some crispy boys at the ballpark. Let’s go.
Update: Tom Brady has officially announced he is retiring from football.
Tom Brady is officially probably retiring from the NFL after 22 seasons, seven Super Bowl titles, three MVPs, and five Super Bowl MVPs. He is without a shred of doubt the greatest quarterback in NFL history, likely the greatest player in league history, and arguably the greatest athlete in American sports history. As we process the end of an era, only the most somber of songs will suffice. Hit it, acoustic Josie.
That is if you believe the likes of Adam Schefter and Jeff Darlington, two of the most tied-in guys in all of sports media. What started as rumors of Brady making a decision on his future sooner than later quickly turned into the breaking news alarm being sounded on Saturday afternoon. It was clearly not something ESPN was prepared for at that exact moment because they had wall to wall college basketball games airing and the regional sports networks like NESN and NBC Sports Boston are usually just airing infomercials when there’s not a game on. So kudos to the radio guys for doing the news justice all day while the snow piled up. But then there were conflicting reports that started coming in quoting sources like Brady’s agent Don Yee and even his own father saying he had not made a decision yet on his future. Mike Silver even reported that Tom Brady actually called Tampa Bay GM Jason Licht to tell him he had not made a decision yet. Welp, ESPN, the NFL Network, all of the internet, even TB12’s own Twitter account tweeted out notes of congratulations on a great career. Sports Center seemed to have taken Schefty at his reporting because they ran non-stop coverage and heart wrenching Tom Brady retirement packages. As they should because whether it was Giselle, Alex Guerrero or someone else that leaked the decision; I would bet my car that Brady is retiring. He’s just pissed he got scooped before he could announce it himself in his own way. (i.e. the mysteriously yet to be aired final episode of his ESPN+ show)
With all that being said, I am going to move forward with this blog assuming Brady is in fact retiring. I really hope this isn’t a Brett Favre situation and he hems and haws. Make a decision and stick with it. I personally don’t think he should walk away because he clearly is still one of the best QBs in the league, but hey if he is calling it a career I get it. He’s won seven Super Bowls, he has every significant NFL record for a QB, he’s got multiple budding businesses to tend to now, and most importantly he has his health. If this it for Tom Brady, what an incredible career it has been. Equally as impressive is the fact that he will be retiring at the height of his powers as he finishes his final season as a legit MVP candidate
So he calls it a career, rather than wait to get hurt or face an inevitable possible decline in skills, even as Brady once famously said “I’ll retire when I suck.” Suck, Tom Brady does not. There aren’t many guys that are able to walk away at the top of their game though. The only recent comp I can think of is David Ortiz, who retired after a 2016 All-Star season in which he hit .315 with 38 home runs and 127 RBIs. Absolutely mind boggling. As badly as Tom Brady wants to play until he’s in his fifties, there is something to be said about walking away before the wheels come off. Nobody wants to remember their idols stumbling around the field, clearly diminished and just chasing former greatness.
Speaking of David Ortiz, the fact that he gets elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame the same week that Tom Brady announces his retirement has me feeling straight up geriatric. My childhood idols now have their numbers retired, streets named after them, HOF inductions, and before long will have statues in their honor. We have truly lived through the greatest era in Boston sports history and to quote Henry Hill “and now it’s all over.”
Didn’t matter. It didn’t mean anything. When I was down, I’d go out and win some more. We won everything. We beat other teams, we battled the league, we even came back from 28-3. Everybody had their hands out. Everything was for the taking. And now it’s all over.
Sure Mac Jones looked pretty good, he helped bring the Patriots back to the playoffs as a rookie, and is technically a Pro Bowl level QB now as an alternate replacement. But it’ll never be the same, and I can already feel my future children rolling their eyes as I tell yet another story championing Tom Brady’s greatness.
In his final season, Tom Brady led the NFL in Passing Touchdowns, Yards, Completions, and Pass Attempts, all at the age of 44 and the oldest player in the league. That is otherworldly in a career of god level accomplishments. I’m not sure if this StatMuse graphic is completely up to date, but it paints the picture of just how utterly dominant Brady has been in his 40s compared to every other QB in league history. Sure he has way more games played, but that’s not a knock, in fact that’s a testament to his…pliability (sorry, I couldn’t help myself).
If this is in fact it, I have to give Brady props for not doing the whole gross Mariano Rivera Retirement Tour. Rivera was the greatest closer in baseball history and was a joy/terror to watch for all those years. But announcing you’re going to retire after one more season just opens the gates for distractions and gifts and media fawning every single week and it sounds exhausting if not outright off putting. Assuming the retirement takes, like a successful transplant operation, he will retire after his age-44 season, which is actually one season shy of the 45-years-old end date he had not so subtly hinted at for years. I’ve personally always thought the “45-years-old” timeline was thrown out there by Brady to throw us off the scent so he could play into his 40’s and then retire at some point before the media started asking him every single offseason about his plans. However, as he continued to play I was less sure of that because let’s face it, if he remained healthy Tom Brady could have played until he was registering for his AARP membership. I can even picture the Instagram promo video for TB12 introducing its most famous Medicare client.
Now in the interest of continuing to process my Tom Brady Leaving the Patriots grief, I’m only briefly going to go back to the Bargaining stage here for a second. Simply put, only playing two seasons in Tampa Bay makes his late career departure hurt a little bit less. A lot of Patriots fans will never forgive Brady for leaving, but I think the majority of fans recognized Brady was essentially forced out of town by Belichick and/or after 20 years it may have just been time to move on. So with that being said, I know a lot of Pats fans were rooting for Brady to play well and even win another ring down in Florida if not to stick it to Belichick, at least to incentivize the Patriots to get their shit together, and fast.
However, if Brady had continued to win in Tampa Bay for several years, it suddenly becomes a very real possibility that the lines of allegiance start to blur. Just think about it, do you look back at Peyton Manning as a Colt or a Bronco? It’s not as clear cut as you might think because although Manning had the bulk of his record breaking HOF career in Indy, he had an ugly breakup with the team that drafted him, then went on to set single season TD records in Denver, continued to have legendary battles against Tom Brady and the Pats, went to two Super Bowls, and won another ring with the Broncos. I think that was starting to become an unspoken fear of Patriots fans who don’t even want to entertain the discussion of who claims Tom Brady as their own.
Getting back on track with my stages of processing the post-Brady grief, I think the Week 4 game this season in Foxborough provided a lot of closure for fans who felt blindsided by his departure nearly two years prior. Not to mention an all-time promo from the Sunday Night Football team.
Speaking of closure, goddamnit am I glad I dragged my lazy ass off the couch in Boston and drove the five hours down to the Meadowlands just to see Tom Brady play in person (and witness him rip out the heart of the Jets) one last time. We even joked in the pre-game tailgate that we’d probably be back in the same parking lot four years from now seeing Tom light up another generation of Jets players, but in the back of our minds we knew this could be it. And it was.
We’ll continue to work through this news and process Tom Brady’s retirement when he finally makes it official. Or if he pulls a Wolf of Wall Street and declares he’s not leaving, we’ll cover that too. If this is it though, I can promise you one thing: Five years from now I will without a doubt be in Canton, OH to witness Tom Brady’s Hall of Fame induction speech. And I’m not a meterologist, but I already know it will be incredibly dusty that day.
The Red Sox ain’t dead yet, which Nate Eovaldi and Hunter Renfroe made sure of last night practically willing the team to a must have W against the Rays. This team is moving in the right direction and reinforcements are on the way, but lets not forget about the big trade deadline acquisition, the Ginger Ale Man himself, Kyle Schwarber. All he’s done since arriving in Boston is hit .321 with 4 Home Runs and an OPS of .999 so if there was ever a new guy in need of a t-shirt it’s him.
Buy yours now before the Sox go on a deep playoff run and you’re stuck without a crisp new tee.
The 300s 