Folks, let me introduce myself. I have gone by many names: Big Game, G-Smooth, Jimmy Lips, etc. But for these exercises, I’m just the dude who researches sports information and makes educated guesses on the outcomes of player performances. There will be facts. There will be jokes. And hopefully, there will be success.
Let’s start out west in the Raiders and Chargers game.
Justin Herbert O270.5 pass yds (-115)
Co-Rookie of the Year favorite, Justin Herbert has been money both on the field and for fantasy owners this season. He has passed for over 271 yards in five of his six starts and the only time he didn’t was in his MNF showdown in Nola, when he finished with 264.
Over the past four games, the Raiders have allowed the following passing yard totals:
- Josh Allen – 288
- Patrick Mahomes – 340
- Tom Brady – 369
- Baker Mayfield – 122
Context is needed for the Mayfield outlier and it should be noted that the winds were howling and it was raining the entire game last Sunday.
DJ Chark O50.5 rec yds (-112)
Jaguars WR DJ Chark was not originally going to make the cut, but sometimes you have to wait (5 days) for good things to happen.
Texans CB Bradley Roby is out on Sunday due to disciplinary reasons.
“So what, James?!”
Well, that’s significant because that frees up Chark to roam a bit more comfortably. You’ll recall that Davante Adams just torched the Texans in Week 7 for 13-196-2. I am in no way implying that DJ Chark doo doo doo doo doo doo is Adams, but that Week 7 performance came with Roby on the field.
Over the past 5 weeks, the Texans have allowed just under 200 rec yds per game to WRs and the 2nd-most TDs to that position over that span (9).
Sterling Shepard O4.5 catches (-118) and O54.5 rec yds (-112)
I know what you’re thinking: “James, I don’t even know you, and yet I can tell this is a homer pick.”
Hear me out with these quick facts, though:
-Shepard has 18 targets over the past two games
-Shepard has has gone over 54 in each of those contests
-Shepard has 6+ catches in three of his four games this season
-WFT has allowed 3 WRs (Kupp, Woods & Cooper) to go over 54 yds in the last 3 gms
So this may very well be a homer pick, but it's a well-researched pick.