Last Week: 2-2

Season: 20-11

Highlight the Highs: David Montgomery is in a groove right now and no one plays catch-up football like Kirk Cousins

Loathe the Lows: The Chargers continue to play funk 4th quarter football as last week’s game vs ATL and now Thursday’s tilt against the Raiders showed. Also, Mike Glennon was well on his way to reaching his completion total until he was benched due to his defense not tackling Derrick Henry.

But today is a special day. Why? Because we get NFL games + it’s Saturday!

And now that you’ve been all in your feelings about how awesome 2001 music was, I bring you today’s first pick:

Drew Lock O21.5 completions (-118) vs BUF

Fact #1: Lock is coming off his best game of the season last week against the Panthers (280 and 4 scores)

Fact #2: Buffalo is allowing an average of 24 completions per game on the road compared to 22.9 at home

Fact #3: Buffalo has allowed four of its last five opponents to complete at least 22 completions, including Russell Wilson (28), Kyler Murray (22), Justin Herbert (31) and Nick Mullens (26).



Robert Tonyan O3.5 receptions (-124) vs CAR

Fact #1: The Panthers have allowed 27 catches to TE over the past 5 weeks — T-5th-most in the NFL over that span — despite only playing 4 games (Avg: 6.75)

Fact #2: Tonyan has 4+ catches in four straight games, including a TD in each of those contests

Fact #3: Since Week 8, Hayden Hurst (5), Travis Kelce (10), T.J. Hockenson (4), Kyle Rudolph (7) and both Nick Vannett (4) and Troy Fumagalli (4) have all caught at least four passes against Carolina.

TLDR: Every TE except Gronk (Bucs) has reached at least 4 receptions against the Panthers since Week 8.

Bonus: Panthers have allowed 3 TE TDs over their last four games, which when combined with Tonyan’s current TD streak, makes it worth a sprinkle at the very least (+160 anytime TD)