Category: Gambling

Totally Uninformed Bowl Game Gambling Picks – Round 6

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Finally some good news. Thursday was my best day of picks so far this bowl season. It looked like it would be a good day when Virginia took the opening kickoff of the Military Bowl back for a touchdown. That optimism quickly evaporated, though, as Virginia went on to allow 49 unanswered points to a team that did not complete a single pass the entire game.

Thankfully I was able to rebound with the three late games all going my way. Even Stanford, who blew a 21-3 lead, held on to cover.

Here are the picks for Friday. Hopefully this bike doesn’t fall apart on me.

Round 5 (3-1) / Overall (8-17) 

BELK BOWL – Wake Forest vs. Texas A&M – 1 p.m. ET WAKE FOREST -3.5

SUN BOWL – No. 24 NC State vs. Arizona State – 2 p.m. ET NC STATE -6.5

MUSIC CITY BOWL – Kentucky vs. No. 21 Northwestern – 4:30 p.m. ET NORTHWESTERN -9.5

ARIZONA BOWL – Utah State vs. New Mexico State – 5:30 p.m. ET NEW MEXICO STATE -4

COTTON BOWL CLASSIC – No. 8 USC vs. No. 5 Ohio State – 8:30 p.m. ET USC +7.5

Totally Uninformed Bowl Game Gambling Picks – Round 5

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I can’t believe I picked Boston College. I knew better. Again, it’s clear that I’ve learned nothing this month.

This is starting to get serious and I’m starting to get worried. Round 4 of my picks, Wednesday in particular, was another rough outing. We’re going to take it one day at a time from here on out. And because I’m just throwing darts at this point, no explanation of my picks is warranted. They’re getting tougher to defend anyways.

Round 4 (1-6) / Overall (5-16)

MILITARY BOWL – Virginia vs. Navy – 1:30 p.m. ET VIRGINIA +1.5

CAMPING WORLD BOWL – No. 19 Oklahoma State vs. No. 22 Virginia Tech – 5:15 p.m. ET
OKLAHOMA STATE -5.5

ALAMO BOWL – No. 13 Stanford vs. No. 15 TCU – 9 p.m. ET STANFORD +3

HOLIDAY BOWL – No. 16 Michigan State vs. No. 18 Washington State – 9 p.m. ET MICHIGAN STATE -2

Totally Uninformed Bowl Game Gambling Picks – Round 4

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My picks went 2-2 over the weekend, and I’ll take anything just to get back on the board at this point. With seven games today and tomorrow, there’s a good chance to get my head close to back above water.

Record in Round 3 (2-2) / Overall (4-10)

HEART OF DALLAS BOWL – Utah vs. West Virginia – Dec. 26, 1:20 p.m. ET
Mostly a pick against Utah, as they went 2-6 over their last 8 games. WEST VIRGINIA+6.5

QUICK LANE BOWL – Duke vs. Northern Illinois – Dec. 26, 5:15 p.m. ET
Duke has won two in a row, but Northern Illinois feels like a better pick. NORTHERN ILLINOIS +6.5

CACTUS BOWL – Kansas State vs. UCLA – Dec. 26, 10 p.m. ET
Kansas State fared better versus ranked teams this season. KANSAS STATE -6.5

INDEPENDENCE BOWL  – Florida State vs. Southern Miss – Dec. 27, 1:30 p.m. ET
Florida State should win, but Southern Miss should cover. Clearly I haven’t learned anything this month. SOUTHERN MISS +16.5

PINSTRIPE BOWL – Boston College vs. Iowa – Dec. 27, 5:15 p.m. ET
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but BC played pretty well the second half of the season. BOSTON COLLEGE +2.5

FOSTER FARMS BOWL – Arizona vs. Purdue – Dec. 27, 8:30 p.m. ET
Going with the high-flying offense in this one. ARIZONA -3

TEXAS BOWL  – Texas vs. Missouri – Dec. 27, 9 p.m. ET
Looking for Mizzou to make it 7 straight to close out the season. MISSOURI -2.5

Totally Uninformed Bowl Game Gambling Picks – Round 3

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It was a very rough week for my picks, no two ways about it. The favorites went 4-1 and I picked four dogs. Even worse, none of the games were even close. No game this week was closer than three scores. The average margin of victory was 34.2 points.

Luckily, we’re only a quarter of the way through bowl season. There’s still time to turn this ship around. And this week reminded me that favorites are favored for a reason. Just like March Madness, you need to pick a few upsets but you can’t pick three 14 seeds to win in the first round. I won’t be afraid to go with the chalk more frequently the rest of the way.

With three games scheduled for Saturday and one for Sunday night, here are my picks for the remaining games through Christmas.

Record in Round 2 (0-5) / Overall (2-8)

BIRMINGHAM BOWL – Texas Tech vs. South Florida – Dec. 23, 12 p.m. ET on
I’ll go with one of the highest scoring offenses in the country here. USF -2

ARMED FORCES BOWL – Army vs. San Diego State – Dec. 23, 3:30 p.m. ET
No line on this game but I’ll pick the Aztecs to win. SDSU

DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL  – Appalachian State vs. Toledo – Dec. 23, 7 p.m. ET
Appalachian State lost to UMass this year. TOLEDO -8

HAWAI’I BOWL – Fresno State vs. Houston – Dec. 24, 8:30 p.m. ET
Boise State proved me right, so I’ll show some more love to the Mountain West.
FRESNO STATE +2

Totally Uninformed Bowl Game Gambling Picks – Round 1

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College football bowl season kicks off tomorrow with five games on the docket. This year’s bowl season will feature 40 games, culminating with the College Football Playoff National Championship game on January 8.

We here at The 300s aren’t experts on all 130 Division I Football Bowl Subdivision teams, but we have wasted more Saturday afternoons in October than we care to admit. So if your fantasy football season was a train wreck, jump on our train as we pick every game this bowl season. After all, what the hell else will there be to watch on TV the day after Christmas? Might as well make things interesting.

(All lines are from from the Westgate Las Vegas.)

NEW ORLEANS BOWL Troy vs. North Texas
Troy has won six games in a row and is 5-1 away from home this season. Meanwhile North Texas is 3-4 on the road and coming off a loss in their conference championship game. TROY -7

CURE BOWL  Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky
Bit of a toss up here, so I’ll go with the team with the better passing attack. WESTERN KENTUCKY +6.5

LAS VEGAS BOWL Oregon vs. No. 25 Boise State
The Mountain West champs are getting points. Also, Oregon went 0-3 against ranked teams this season, never losing by less than three touchdowns.  BOISE STATE +7

NEW MEXICO BOWL Marshall vs. Colorado State
Marshall has lost four of tits last five games and has to travel across the country to take on Colorado State. COLORADO STATE -5.5

CAMELLIA BOWL Middle Tennessee vs. Arkansas State
Arkansas State is coming off a tough loss but is the better team. ARKANSAS STATE -4

Sean Payton Was Mad As Hell On Thursday Night

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CBS Sports – It’s not often that an NFL coach gets called for a pivotal penalty, but that’s exactly what happened to Sean Payton on Thursday. 

With just 65 seconds left in Atlanta’s wild 20-17 win over New Orleans, Payton got called for a controversial unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that gave the Falcons a first down and killed any chance the Saints had of winning the game. 

You could be forgiven if you didn’t stay up until almost midnight for the end of a Thursday Night, NFC South, Color Rush spectacle. But if you did stay up for the end of it, you saw just the latest example of why Bill Belichick is the best coach in the league and why it’s not even close.

Belichick is like the card counter at the blackjack table. It doesn’t mean he is going to win every hand or game, but he’s never going to do something stupid to hurt his chances of winning. Like split 10’s. Or run on to the field like a jerk and get flagged for a 15-yard penalty.

Even if the Saints got the ball back around their 30-yard line with 18 seconds left to play they probably weren’t going to win the game. But if Brees could get lucky on one sideline pass the Saints could have attempted a long-range field goal to tie the game. Assuming they could line up right. Then who knows what happens in overtime. Instead of getting to play one more hand, though, Payton essentially called the dealer an asshole and got bounced from the table.

Thursday Night Football goes to Indianapolis next week when the 3-9 Colts will host the 3-9 Broncos. If that doesn’t excite you right now, just wait. SKY CAM WILL BE BACK!!!

Defenses Should Not Win Fantasy Football Championships

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With another fantasy football regular season in the books and the playoffs starting tonight, it’s time for me to share my biggest takeaway from the 2017 campaign.  The time has come for the Defense/Special Teams position in fantasy football to be completely reevaluated and be massively overhauled or eliminated completely.

The NFL is constantly evolving. The NFL is not afraid to make changes that make the game more exciting, fairer and (hopefully) safer. In just the last few years extra points have been moved out to the 15-yard line, overtime has been made (slightly) more equitable, and kickoffs and touchbacks have been moved around. It’s time for fantasy football to show that same ingenuity.

The top scoring defensive unit in fantasy football last week was Miami. In a standard Yahoo! league, the Miami defense posted 28 points and was the fourth-highest scorer of the week. The same Miami defense that is 15th in real football against the pass, 21st against the run and 24th in points allowed.

Among the top 20 scorers in fantasy football last week, 7 were quarterbacks, 6 were running backs, 3 were wide receivers, 1 was a tight end and 3 were defenses. I know the Dolphins were playing against the rudderless Denver Broncos offense – making them a smart waiver wire pick up – but are you comfortable with a defense being as important to a fantasy football lineup as every other position? I’m not. Especially considering how fickle fantasy defenses can be.

The top defense in fantasy football this season, Jacksonville, has had four weeks with 20+ points, five weeks with 10-19 points, two weeks with 0-9 points and one week with negative points. On what planet does it make sense that they scored 15 points in a 23-20 loss to the Jets and only 5 points in a 20-17 win over the Chargers? I thought football was a results oriented business? I don’t care how many sacks or interceptions my team has, I’ll take the 20-17 win over the 23-20 loss every damn week.

How do we solve this problem? I’d be fine eliminating the position from fantasy football all together. Picking up Miami last week may have been smart, but I say it was more like winning on a scratch ticket. Don’t tell me there is skill in fantasy football and then tell me the goddam Dolphins defense was the fourth-best play of the week. A defensive unit owned in a whopping 11% of leagues last week.

I’d also be fine going back to the old days and only awarding points for safeties and defensive touchdowns. Denver gave up 35 points to Miami, but did manage a pick six. It’s akin to a quarterback throwing TD passes when his team is down by four touchdowns in the fourth quarter. It still got on the scoreboard.

My last proposal would be for defenses to go head-to-head. If my opponent played the Minnesota Defense (9 points allowed) last week and I played the New England Defense (3 points allowed), only my team would score points at the defense position. It could be a set point total every week, such as 1, 3 or 6, to keep defenses from becoming more important than real position players. Or it could be the difference in points allowed (6 in this example). That would value actual, real-world defense. Not fluky kick returns and flashy INTs.

If you have any better ideas, please let me know.

Thursday Night Pick Em: Chiefs vs Raiders (Bonus: Color Rush Breakdown)

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As always, all our lines come from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook so blame them if the numbers change. Tonight we’ve got the Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 47) at Oakland Raiders.

Derek Carr still doesn’t look right, not surprisingly, just a couple of weeks after breaking his fucking back. So the Raiders are hard to trust here. Especially with the hottest team in the NFL coming to town in the Kansas City Chiefs. Travis Kelce is back, allegedly, to 100% after a concussion, Kareem Hunt is still the most electric RB in the league, and Tyreek Hill is still on this team. Not to mention Alex Smith is FEELING himself for the first time in a long time. No more checkdown Alex safe throw Smith. Dude is letting it fly. Sure being in a contract year with a QB drafted in the 1st Round behind you probably doesn’t hurt, but the guy has some legit weapons around him in KC for the first time. KC is a (-3) point favorite and that is easy money. That is nothing. Slap your money down on the table confidently and sit back and watch the Chiefs make us all rich.

Now, onto the unis.

I’ve heard a lot of Raiders fans complaining about the Color Rush jerseys, with Oakland going white on white tonight. It does seem like a missed opportunity to have a total blackout. Just go old school villain, make everything black, but nay. The Chefs are going red on red, which is a good look, but they’re both wearing the same uni combos when they played each other last year. Should’ve been Raiders decked out in black with the Chiefs rocking all yellow with red highlights. Now thats a Color Rush I can get excited about. And if you complain about that because you’re colorblind well then tough shit; Thursday Night Football just isn’t for you then.

Lets Gamble! NFL Week 5

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Overall Record (14-16)
Last week (9-6)

Another week, another one of the worst beats I’ve ever seen in a football game with the ending of that Kansas City game. Just ruthless. As always, all of our betting lines are courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook so blame them if the numbers change. Its that time once again to start playing fast and loose with our paychecks. Its Week 5 in the NFL, LETS GO


New England Patriots (-5.5, 55.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I picked the Pats to cover and cover they did.

Sunday, Oct. 8
1 p.m. ET

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-1.5, 39)
There’s no way you’re going to actually put money on the Browns as a favorite are you? I sure as shit am not going to. I’ll take the Jets here.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-3, 44)
Coming off their walkoff win over the Patriots, the Panthers have some momentum heading into Detroit. But the Lions are looking legit this year sitting at 3-1 in first place in the NFC North. It seems the Panthers are slowly figuring out the best way to use Christian McCaffrey with Jonathan Stewart together though so I’m taking the Panthers to cover here.

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 43.5)


Tennessee Titans (NL) at Miami Dolphins
No Line for this game, so nothing to see here.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 38)
Call me crazy, I’m taking the Bills here. I like Tyrod Taylor to have a big game against the struggling Bengals.

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants (-3.5, 44.5)
A battle of two 0-4 teams. Woof. I’ve been picking the Chargers all year and they keep disappointing so its hard to rely on them here. Giants are in the same boat, but with a fully healthy Odell Beckham I think they finally get on the board here. I’ll take the G-Men to cover.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5, 44)
Steelers are pretty big favorites at (-8.5) so thats asking a lot, but it is the Jaguars. I can definitely see Pittsburgh winning by 10. Fournette’s been solid in his first year rushing for 285 yards and 3 TDs, but Big Ben is rolling with Antonio Brown whos got 30 catches for 388 yards and a score. So I’m taking the Steelers to cover the big spread.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 45)
Eagles look like they’ve found their QB of the future with Carson Wentz and while I’m still bummed about Short Guy Hall of Famer Darren Sproles going down, Philly is still rolling along. Not a huge fan of old man Carson Palmer, especially with the non-existant run gam post David Johnson, so I’m taking the Eagles to cover.

4 p.m. ET
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 47)
You gotta be shitting me? I know the Rams are off to a 3-1 start, but I refuse to take them as favorites over the Seahawks on a (-2.5) spread. Put some respeck on Seattle’s name. I’m taking Dangeruss and the Seahawks here.


Baltimore Ravens (NL) at Oakland Raiders
Seems to be a lot of No Lines this season, soo nothing to bet on here.

 

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-2, 52.5)
Its hard to bet against the Packers, who are 3-1 on the season going against the 2-2 Cowboys. The Pack just continue to plug and play guys like Aaron Jones and not miss a beat, but I like Dallas here. Feed Zeke all night long and win by a FG, I’ll take the Boys.


Kansas City Chiefs (NL) at Houston Texans
Another game with No Line. Moving on.

Monday, Oct. 9
8:30 p.m. ET


Minnesota Vikings (NL) at Chicago Bears
No reason to watch MNF if theres No Line. Carry on.

Lets Gamble! NFL Week 4

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Week 3 was a rollercoaster with a lot of upsets that I did not see coming (I’m looking at you Denver), but Week 4 is a new day. As always, all of our betting lines are courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook so blame them if the numbers change. Its that time once again to start playing fast and loose with our paychecks. Its Week 4 in the NFL, LETS GO.

Overall Record (14-16)
Last week (6-9)

Thursday, Sept. 28
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7, 45.5)
The Bears just keep making me look bad, but I refuse to put my hard earned dollars on Mike Glennon. And I need to see back to back solid games out of Jordan Howard before I trust him. Usually the tired rhetoric about Thursday Night Football is its sloppy, the passing is out of sync and teams lean on their running game. Welp, the Rams and Niners blew that one up last week. So I’m taking the Packers to cover here.

Sunday, Oct. 1
9:30 a.m. ET (at London)
New Orleans Saints (-3, 49.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
I gotta go Saints here. I know they’ve been up and down, but I don’t know if Smokin Jay Cutler and the Dolphins have enough offensive firepower to keep up with the saints. Saints will cover.

1 p.m. ET
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-9, 48.5)
Another big spread for the Pats at (-9) which is a tricky one because the Panthers have been pretty shaky so far this year, but similar to last week against Deshaun Watson, the Pats have historically struggled against mobile QBs. I think its gonna be a game the Pats pull away, but Panthers make it respectable. I got Patriots by 10 to cover.

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5, 46)
Rams looked great last week putting up 41 points buttt that was on San Francisco. Cowboys gotta win by more than a TD here, whereas the Rams haven’t lost by more than 7 yet this season and have put up 40+ points twice already. But again the competition has been pretty mediocre (Indy, Washington, San Fran) so I’m picking the Cowboys to keep rolling and cover.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (no line)
Does Westgate have something against the Vikings? There’s no line for them for the second week in a row.

Tennessee Titans (-1.5, 44) at Houston Texans
Texans could go one of two ways in this game. Defeated and beat down after dropping a game they probably should have won to the Patriots last week or they’ll come firing out of the gates for sticking with the best team in football for 58 minutes last week. I think Deshaun Watson found his groove last week so I’m taking the Texans to cover here.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5, 39.5) at New York Jets
Bet on this game at your own risk. Jags cruised to victory last week, but they’re more of a running team these days and the Jets have a solid D-line if nothing else. Jets surprised me last week with a W over the Dolphins, but I think Fournette and the gang are too much for the Jets here. Jags cover.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 40) at Cleveland Browns
Another game I cringe to even put money on, but hey thats what leaders do, they take the ball and they bring their team down the field. Bengals shit the bed last week, but Cleveland cannot be trusted. Bengals cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 43.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Ravens had an absolutely embarrassing game last week so they should bounce back. Problem is though, so did the Steelers. After losing in OT to the goddamn Bears, I expect Big Ben and co. to smash the Ravens. Steelers cover.

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (-8, 48.5)
Bills are sneaky tied for 1st place in the AFC East and look a lot better than most people thought they would before the season. I think the Bills keep it within a score and cover.

4 p.m. ET
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 44)
This year’s Hard Knocks darlings have yet to beat anyone great yet as their first game got postponed, then they beat the Bears, and then got smoked by the Vikings last week. ODB looks healthy once again, but the Giants are 0-3 and could be reeling so I’m going with the Bucs to cover.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (-1, 47)
Despite being 0-3, the Chargers have had some bad breaks and could easily be 2-1 so I think they’re due, plus it likely will take the Eagles a little while to figure out how to best replace Darren Sproles with Smallwood and others. Chargers are due, I’m picking them to cover.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-7, 44.5)
The Niners got blown out in their opener, but then nearly beat Seattle in Week 2, which looking back now seems to have more to do with the Seahawks offensive line than anything. Then they kept it close before losing to the Rams last week. Arizona looks to rebound after an L in Dallas in which Larry Fitzgerald looked 10 years younger. Their running game is still a disaster without David Johnson, but wth Fitz and Jaron Brown stepping up in the receiving core I’m picking the Cardinals to cover.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 46.5)
This is a heavyweight matchup of AFC playoff teams and the Broncos are favored by a FG. Both teams had disappointing losses last week so everyone’s looking to get back on track. Oakland has been leaning on Marshawn Lynch here early and Denver is one of the worst teams to try and run on so I’m going with the Broncos to cover here.

8:30 p.m. ET
Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13, 41.5)
God the Colts suck, but a two TD spread is huge for a team thats been struggling offensively. As much as I want to pick the Colts, Russell Wilson looked great last week and if the Seahawks can get him out of the pocket he’ll shred the Colts D. So while I usually hate picking the favorite in huge spreads like this, Dangeruss is looking good, and the Seahawks are at home where they are loud as shit. I’ll take Seattle to cover.

Monday, Oct. 2
Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 49.5)
I’m going to continue to roll with the Chiefs who have looked awesome so far this year. Kareem Hunt is scary good and the R-words have yet to really find a groove as guys like Terrell Pryor continue to underwhelm. I got the Chiefs covering here.