Week 3 was a rollercoaster with a lot of upsets that I did not see coming (I’m looking at you Denver), but Week 4 is a new day. As always, all of our betting lines are courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook so blame them if the numbers change. Its that time once again to start playing fast and loose with our paychecks. Its Week 4 in the NFL, LETS GO.
Overall Record (14-16)
Last week (6-9)
Thursday, Sept. 28
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7, 45.5)
The Bears just keep making me look bad, but I refuse to put my hard earned dollars on Mike Glennon. And I need to see back to back solid games out of Jordan Howard before I trust him. Usually the tired rhetoric about Thursday Night Football is its sloppy, the passing is out of sync and teams lean on their running game. Welp, the Rams and Niners blew that one up last week. So I’m taking the Packers to cover here.
Sunday, Oct. 1
9:30 a.m. ET (at London)
New Orleans Saints (-3, 49.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
I gotta go Saints here. I know they’ve been up and down, but I don’t know if Smokin Jay Cutler and the Dolphins have enough offensive firepower to keep up with the saints. Saints will cover.
1 p.m. ET
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-9, 48.5)
Another big spread for the Pats at (-9) which is a tricky one because the Panthers have been pretty shaky so far this year, but similar to last week against Deshaun Watson, the Pats have historically struggled against mobile QBs. I think its gonna be a game the Pats pull away, but Panthers make it respectable. I got Patriots by 10 to cover.
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5, 46)
Rams looked great last week putting up 41 points buttt that was on San Francisco. Cowboys gotta win by more than a TD here, whereas the Rams haven’t lost by more than 7 yet this season and have put up 40+ points twice already. But again the competition has been pretty mediocre (Indy, Washington, San Fran) so I’m picking the Cowboys to keep rolling and cover.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (no line)
Does Westgate have something against the Vikings? There’s no line for them for the second week in a row.
Tennessee Titans (-1.5, 44) at Houston Texans
Texans could go one of two ways in this game. Defeated and beat down after dropping a game they probably should have won to the Patriots last week or they’ll come firing out of the gates for sticking with the best team in football for 58 minutes last week. I think Deshaun Watson found his groove last week so I’m taking the Texans to cover here.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5, 39.5) at New York Jets
Bet on this game at your own risk. Jags cruised to victory last week, but they’re more of a running team these days and the Jets have a solid D-line if nothing else. Jets surprised me last week with a W over the Dolphins, but I think Fournette and the gang are too much for the Jets here. Jags cover.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 40) at Cleveland Browns
Another game I cringe to even put money on, but hey thats what leaders do, they take the ball and they bring their team down the field. Bengals shit the bed last week, but Cleveland cannot be trusted. Bengals cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 43.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Ravens had an absolutely embarrassing game last week so they should bounce back. Problem is though, so did the Steelers. After losing in OT to the goddamn Bears, I expect Big Ben and co. to smash the Ravens. Steelers cover.
Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (-8, 48.5)
Bills are sneaky tied for 1st place in the AFC East and look a lot better than most people thought they would before the season. I think the Bills keep it within a score and cover.
4 p.m. ET
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 44)
This year’s Hard Knocks darlings have yet to beat anyone great yet as their first game got postponed, then they beat the Bears, and then got smoked by the Vikings last week. ODB looks healthy once again, but the Giants are 0-3 and could be reeling so I’m going with the Bucs to cover.
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (-1, 47)
Despite being 0-3, the Chargers have had some bad breaks and could easily be 2-1 so I think they’re due, plus it likely will take the Eagles a little while to figure out how to best replace Darren Sproles with Smallwood and others. Chargers are due, I’m picking them to cover.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-7, 44.5)
The Niners got blown out in their opener, but then nearly beat Seattle in Week 2, which looking back now seems to have more to do with the Seahawks offensive line than anything. Then they kept it close before losing to the Rams last week. Arizona looks to rebound after an L in Dallas in which Larry Fitzgerald looked 10 years younger. Their running game is still a disaster without David Johnson, but wth Fitz and Jaron Brown stepping up in the receiving core I’m picking the Cardinals to cover.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 46.5)
This is a heavyweight matchup of AFC playoff teams and the Broncos are favored by a FG. Both teams had disappointing losses last week so everyone’s looking to get back on track. Oakland has been leaning on Marshawn Lynch here early and Denver is one of the worst teams to try and run on so I’m going with the Broncos to cover here.
8:30 p.m. ET
Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13, 41.5)
God the Colts suck, but a two TD spread is huge for a team thats been struggling offensively. As much as I want to pick the Colts, Russell Wilson looked great last week and if the Seahawks can get him out of the pocket he’ll shred the Colts D. So while I usually hate picking the favorite in huge spreads like this, Dangeruss is looking good, and the Seahawks are at home where they are loud as shit. I’ll take Seattle to cover.
Monday, Oct. 2
Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 49.5)
I’m going to continue to roll with the Chiefs who have looked awesome so far this year. Kareem Hunt is scary good and the R-words have yet to really find a groove as guys like Terrell Pryor continue to underwhelm. I got the Chiefs covering here.