Tag: Alex Verdugo

The 300s Red Sox 2022 Season Preview

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After another cold, dark, and suspiciously long winter, this afternoon we get The Masters, game day dogs on the grill, and most importantly, Red Sox Opening Day. I wasn’t sure we’d get here after an extensive lockout, constant news of failed negotiations between the players and the owners, and rainouts delaying games further, but we made it guys. It’s baseball season.

After finishing the season 92-70 last year and making a surprise run to the ALCS expectations are high for this Red Sox team. With one of the best lineups in the game expectations should be high as the Sox look to build on last year’s deep postseason run. This season already has a melancholy vibe to it though because there could be some big changes after the season with JD Martinez, Kike Hernandez, and potentially Xander Bogaerts all hitting free agency. The farm system is back in the Top 10 and the Sox finally opened their wallets with the Trevor Story signing so the franchise is in a good position for the long haul, but it’s definitely win now time down on Jersey Street.

The Duct Tape Rotation

The 2022 pitching staff is a mixed bag that should get better when if everyone can get healthy at the same time, but as it currently sits the rotation has some question marks. The staff includes one legit starter in Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 in 2021) but he comes with a long history of injuries, one potential hidden gem in Nick Pivetta (9-8, 4.53) who’s looking to build off an eye opening postseason run (2.63 ERA, 14 K’s in 13.2 IP), a 25-year-old in Tanner Houck (1-5, 3.52) that the Sox kept the training wheels on a bit last year but shows a ton of potential, and then two old and possibly washed up vets in Michael Wacha, yes that Wacha from the 2013 World Series, (5.05, 6.62, 4.76 ERAs the last 3 seasons) and Rich Hill (7-8, 3.86) at 42-years-young is back in Boston to see how long he can survive throwing 88 mph fastballs. Gone is rotation mainstay Eduardo Rodriguez after the Red Sox deemed him expendable and to be honest E-Rod seemed like he was gone the minute Alex Cora publicly scolded him for celebrating too hard in the middle of an ALCS game. A rare miss for Cora.

If it sounds like I’m missing someone, you’re right, I haven’t mentioned Chris Sale who somehow cracked a rib last month throwing a baseball. So I hate to pin my hopes on Chris Sale because while has the stuff to be the best pitcher in the game, he he has struggled mightily to stay healthy the last few years. I still blame the Sox for delaying Sale’s March 2020 Tommy John surgery by several months for no particular reason, which ended up costing Sale nearly two full years. After recently being placed on the 60 day IL, Sale is projected to return the first week of June so I’m cautiously optimistic, but when healthy the lefty has the stuff to carry the Sox down the stretch and into the playoffs.

Welcome to Boston, Trevor Story

I love this signing IF Story is indeed slated to be the second baseman of the future. I don’t however love the optics of the Red Sox signing a career shortstop the same exact year that their own franchise shortstop can opt out of his contract and become a free agent. At best it feels like hedging, at worst it feels like the Sox are preemptively moving on from their team’s de facto leader, homegrown All-Star, and 2x World Series champion.

Garrett Whitlock Will Be Key

For those who don’t know, the Red Sox essentially got Garrett Whitlock off the scrap heap, selecting him in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft off the Yankees roster. Coming off Tommy John surgery, Whitlock was nothing less than a revelation for the Sox last year going 8-4 with a 1.96 ERA and racking up 81 strikeouts in 73.1 IP. Like a child of divorce, Whitlock seems to be stuck between what his dad (Alex Cora) and his mom (Chaim Bloom) want him to be as he gets yo-yo’d back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen. It has a striking similarity to the Jonathan Papelbon situation way back in 2006 when Paps came into the league as a starter before getting shifted to the pen for the postseason and ultimately taking the closer reigns from Keith Foulke. Now, I think Whitlock should be a starter because he has all the tools and multiple legit pitches to become a top of the rotation guy. However, baseball as a whole has really devalued top tier starters as analytics have taken over the game and managers routinely pull starters after a couple of times through the batting order. “Openers” used to be something we all laughed at the Rays for sending out relievers to pitch a few innings to start a game instead of a traditional starter. Now you see it all the time. The workhorse ace of a pitching staff is an endangered species. There were only THREE players with more than 200 innings pitched last year in all of baseball!

So perhaps Whitlock has a higher objective value coming out of the pen as the team’s Rover, but I still would rather seem him as a starter. Then again, Papelbon went on to become the greatest closer in team history so what do I know. Let’s not forget that the team did jerk around guys like Daniel Bard who eventually fell apart and the Yankees did the same thing with Joba Chamberlain. I once saw Chamberlain start a game at Fenway where he struck out 11 guys before the Yankees move him back to the pen. Then again he was a dominant reliever and was the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera before also falling apart. So I guess my main point is let’s just make a decision and stick with it rather than hem and haw to the point that the team screws up another young pitcher.

Rafael Devers Poised for Another MVP Season

Contract extension talks have stalled between the Sox and Bogaerts and Devers so that’s been a bit of a downer heading into the season. Devers just turned 25 in October and posted a season of 38 HR, 113 RBI while hitting .279/.352/.538 last year. He led the Red Sox in HR, RBI, Runs, Hits, Total Bases, Slugging and OPS en route to his first All-Star selection and finishing 11th in MVP voting. No player has more extra base hits than Rafael Devers over the last three seasons. Get. The. Deal. Done.

Closing Time

Matt Barnes was an All-Star last season lest anyone forget after his second half ERA of 6.48 and ya know being left off the ALCS roster. It didn’t help that Barnes seemingly fell apart right around the time the Spider Tack story broke and was suddenly explicitly banned. Maybe it was just a mental thing and he needed a full winter away from the ballpark to reset, but I’m not exactly penciling Barnes in for 40 saves this year. Whitlock could step in and handle the role, but again with baseball overindexing in middle relief guys, the Sox may not want to pigeonhole Whitlock to 1-inning outings. Cora has gone out of his way to not name a closer, which is fine, but I don’t love a revolving door at the end of games.

“They don’t want to call it closer by committee so they’re not gonna use that term is because they know theres a negative connotation. The reason Cora hasn’t named a closer is because they’re not going to use one.” – Tony Mazz on 98.5

It seems like the Sox are just throwing arms against the wall to see what sticks and that could be a problem, but then again relievers are notoriously fickle. So the team will need to define some roles in the pen, but expect the Sox to be active in the reliever market if Barnes and co. don’t bounce back.

This is a Flawed But Dangerous Team

Vegas has the over/under set for the 2022 Red Sox at 85.5 after winning 92 last year. With a loaded lineup that will mash its way to a ton of wins on its own and a potentially sneaky good bullpen, the Sox should be a lock to hit the over. The rotation could be a disaster if there are any more injuries, but with Sale due back in June they should be good enough at the front end. The only thing that could hinder them is how the AL East has seemingly become the best division in baseball. Vegas has the Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays all projected to win more games than the Sox this season, which Boston is intimately aware of after all-time classic playoff battles against the Yankees and Rays just last fall. With all that being said, I like my chances with a lineup featuring Kike Hernandez, Rafael Devers, Xander Boagaerts, JD Martinez, Alex Verdugo, Trevor Story, and even Bobby Dalbec if he keeps up his second half surge from last season. I think this team will definitely need to add an outfield bat if they’re going to reach the World Series because I love former ALCS MVP Jackie Bradley’s defense, but the man did hit .163 in his lone season with the Brewers last year. Maybe that bat off the bench comes in the form of top prospect Triston Casas, but even then, the kid plays first base. So Chaim will likely need to find an OF bat at the deadline in the same vein as Steve Pearce if the Sox are to go the distance.

Media predictions are all over the place too so nobody knows what to expect from this team. The Ringer has the Sox as the 12th ranked team in baseball behind the Jays, Rays and Yankees, Felger has the Sox winning 95 games, and Chris Gasper has called the upcoming season a bridge year. Then again media predictions are just that, fugazi attempts at defining a team before the first pitch of Opening Day. A lot of people picked the Sox to finish a distant 4th in the division last year, but the team clicked and ended up winning 92 games en route to the ALCS.

With the addition of a healthy Chris Sale I have this team winning 95 games this year, which should be enough to get them into the new 12-team playoff format. Is this a World Series winning team? I’m not sold on that without some additions, but this should be a team that is threatening for the pennant.

If the Red Sox Trade Xander Bogaerts, We Riot

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There have been more and more rumors circulating that the Red Sox are at least entertaining the idea of trading their best all around player. In the midst of their worst season in decades, the Sox are looking for any and all avenues to rebuild and reload. This ain’t it. 

If the Red Sox punt on this season I’m ok with that because I understand the legitimate need for a bridge year every now and then. It’s something Theo Epstein was adamant about in “Feeding the Monster.” You can’t be good every single year. Even the Yankees adopted this soft reset approach over the past few years to extraordinary (regular season) results. You need to take a step back and reload every once in a while otherwise you’re going to trade all your assets and overextend yourself on overpriced free agents and then you’ll have to do a hard reset. Kind of like what they’re staring at right now.

You saw the full value of the bridge year in 2006 when the Sox were less than two years removed from a World Series title but were coming off getting swept in the 2005 ALDS (thanks Tony Graffanino). Despite winning 95 games in ’05, the Sox recognized they were further away from winning a title than their record reflected. So rather than just double down on an aging core they took a step back and acquired some young talent like Coco Crisp and some veteran placeholders like Mark Loretta until the next wave of prospects like Dustin Pedroia (2007 Rookie of the Year), Kevin Youkilis, Jonathan Papelbon, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Clay Buchholz were ready to truly flourish and/or take over full time. It paid off. In 2007 the Sox recognized they were ready to compete again with a combination of their veteran core (Manny, Ortiz, Varitek, Schilling, Nixon), the aforementioned infusion of young (cheap) talent, and some new acquisitions. So they went all out ahead of the 2007 season and signed JD Drew to a (at the time) massive 5 year $70 million deal as well as Daisuke Matsuzaka to a 6 year $51 million deal (plus the $51 million posting fee). The result? The Sox were the wire to wire best team in baseball winning 96 games and the AL East en route to their second title in 4 years. Yes, the Sox did trade one of their top prospects in Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell before the 2006 season, but Beckett was only 26 at the time and was the anchor of their rotation when the team went for it all in 2007.

The Red Sox have the opportunity to do the same thing here, but if they elect to trade Xander Bogaerts they’re not just punting on a season; they’re removing the core of their rebuild. Why trade a 27-year-old shortstop who just re-signed on a team friendly deal (6 years, $120M) through 2025 and finished 5th in MVP voting last year?

Why trade a guy that you scouted, signed at the age of 16, developed into a player that is just now hitting his prime, is a 2x All-Star, is a 3x Silver Slugger, and became a vital piece of two World Series titles? Yes Bogaerts has a full no-trade clause kick in after the deadline this year, but these are typically the kind of guys you want to build around.  

This is not the same as Mookie Betts. Mookie Betts wanted a contract that quite literally was 3x the size of what Bogaerts re-signed for last spring. Mookie was in a walk year and was noncommital about even wanting to be in Boston, whereas Xander re-signed early. The irony is that despite Mookie’s career WAR doubling that of Bogaerts, you’d probably get a better return for Xander because he has 4+ seasons left on his contract. Doesn’t mean you should do it though. 

I am a full blown prospect fanatic so while it obviously paid off in 2018 I never loved Dave Dombrowski’s M.O. of ripping apart the farm system. So I understand the value of Bogaerts and the return the team could get, but if you trade him you basically are putting all your chips into the middle of the table and banking on TBD prospects, Rafael Devers, and Alex Verdugo. Not something I want to bet the next 5-10 years of the Red Sox on. 

Obviously Boston’s farm system is not ripe with future All-Stars like the ’06 team was, but thats the best part about currently being on pace for the worst winning percentage in team history; you are in play for the No. 1 overall pick. The Red Sox have never had the first overall pick in the history of the MLB draft. That’s value right there. Combine that with some smaller deals like you’re seeing with Workman and Hembree getting dealt and potentially trading guys like JD Martinez who I love, but is 33-years-old and may be the only valuable asset you have. There’s also Andrew Benintendi who I would have thought unthinkable to trade at the start of last season, but he has seemingly taken a plummet in his development the last two seasons. If the rumors are true and the Sox could get a young, promising starter like Mike Clevinger or Zach Plesac, I’d strongly consider it. 

It’s time for Chaim Bloom to make the smart, unheralded moves that the team brought him here to do. Blowing it up and trading a player that is essentially your captain is not the way to go. Don’t forget, the Sox also have Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale returning to the mound next year. So use the Theo blueprint; take the bridge year, but don’t blow up the damn bridge.

Mookie Betts Close to MASSIVE Deal With Dodgers. Here’s 5 Reasons Why I’m Still OK With It

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  1. I am kind of shocked of the size of this deal if the reports saying it’ll be $350-$400 million are true. That number, while absurd, sounded completely likely 6 months ago, but then when COVID cancelled sports for half the year a lot of people like baseball Hall of Famer Peter Gammons speculated this could tank the Free Agent market. A lot of teams are eating a lot of money and with no fans in attendance for the foreseeable future they will be eating a lot more. So a $400m deal seemed unlikely even for a free agent of Mookie’s stature. But then again it’s the Dodgers so I guess I shouldn’t be surprised. The Dodgers don’t know the meaning of fiscal responsibility. They are the Yankees of the mid 2000s without the actual success.
  2. I am still OK with the Mookie trade. I saw a ton of sad Sox fans on Twitter this morning as the rumors of the deal spread like wildfire, going so far as to compare it to losing Jon Lester. The Lester comparison is lazy and not even close to the same thing. Lester was an excellent, home grown, fan favorite and a reasonable guy by all accounts yet the Sox still lowballed the shit out of him with a $70m contract offer. He would rightfully so be insulted by the offer, get traded to Oakland, and then sign a 6-year $155 million deal with the Cubs. Thats the definition of misreading the market. With Mookie he is looking to reset the market and become the top 2 or 3 highest paid player of all-time. And the Sox have been offering him deals north of $200m for years, but the former MVP doesn’t want to take a penny less than top dollar. And thats fine! Get your money dude, but that doesn’t mean it makes sense for the Sox to just give Mookie a blank check.
  3. I seem to be in the minority around here, but I don’t think there is a shot in hell a $400m Mookie deal ages well. I love Mookie, I own a Mookie shirt, and he’s arguably the best homegrown prospect the Sox have produced since Roger Clemens. But, he’s also a 5’9″ 180 pound guy with massive up and down seasons on his resume. Over the last four seasons Mookie’s batting avg has been .318, .264, .346, .295. I know batting avg is an old guard stat, but even his WAR has been all over the place (9.5, 6.3, 10.6, 6.9). Those are still great numbers (Betts finished No. 8 in WAR for position players in 2019), but those variances would give me concern if I’m writing the check.
  4. For $400m you need to produce power consistently and to be honest you need to be built like a linebacker so I won’t worry about your body breaking down. Obviously you can never predict injuries and big guys are just as likely to break down (Mo Vaughn, A-Rod), but I have more faith in a big guy continuing to hit for power than I do in a 180 pounder hitting 30+ home runs a year into his late 30s. Mookie’s true value is in being a five tool player. He hits for average, power, steals bases, throws well, and plays elite defense, but 5 tool players rarely age well so while I love Mookie I’m not banking $400m on him being the same player in 2032 (!) that he is today.
  5. I’m not going to give John Henry and the Sox credit for this because they fell ass backwards into it, but with a 60 game season this year the Mookie trade looks even better. You’re essentially trading 2 months of a guy who was not going to resign here for promising big leaguer Alex Verdugo and a top prospect in Jeter Downs.

    I know Big Z accuses me of being a prospect hoarder, but I’m playing the odds here and with arguably the worst pitching staff of my lifetime I don’t think the Sox were a threat to win it all this year anyways. Theo Epstein stepped on a hornets nest when he coined the term “bridge year,” but its true you can’t just pay everyone all the time without taking a step back every one in a while to retool and reload.

So the Red Sox Let Fan Favorite Brock Holt Walk Over Chump Change

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Brock Holt was your classic overachiever; a super utility guy that turned into a legitimate All-Star for the Red Sox. I think he gets a little overrated by Boston fans as most fan favorite dirt dog type players do, but he was a solid contributor and great clubhouse guy. Well the Sox let him walk over what amounts to peanuts as the details of his contract with the Brewers finally came out.

So for a team that doesn’t have a proven every day second baseman, 4th outfielder, and is cobbling together first base just let it’s best utility guy go for nothing. I don’t get it.

Not to mention the Sox could use a little good PR after this tumultuous offseason so maybe giving Brock Holt $3 million would have been worth the good will it would have garnered with fans. I mean the guy all but said he hates Milwaukee in his first interview wearing a Brewers hat.

So you can’t tell me the guy wouldn’t been open to coming back if the Sox offer was even remotely close.

The team’s top 3 outfielders currently are Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr. and JD Martinez, who cannot play outfield every day. Then you have Kevin Pillar ($4.25M), who’s fine, and Alex Verdugo as your 4th OF except he has a little thing called a broken back so it might be hard for him to patrol Fenway in the near future.

Is this a move thats going to make or break the season? Of course not, but after trading Mookie Betts and David Price in salary dumps, taking Eduardo Rodriguez to salary arbitration over $600K, and Dustin Pedroia all but certain to announce his retirement sooner than later, the Red Sox probably could have ponied up the $3M to re-sign a fan favorite.

Red Sox Ownership Defiant in the Face of Fan Backlash

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Boston.com – Red Sox fans are not at all happy, and the team knows it.

Well before the Red Sox traded away one of the best players in Major League Baseball, fans had begun to tune out, either by turning off NESN or not filling the seats at Fenway Park toward the end of last year’s 84-win, playoff-whiff of a season...Kennedy said last fall that attendance over 79 games at Fenway Park last season was down 0.7 percent, while NESN ratings dropped 23 percent.

The day after the Betts trade, Kennedy said overall ticket sales were behind last year’s pace by more than 15 percent, and that the renewal rate of season-ticket holders was down from the usual percentage in the high 80s to the low 80s.

Ticket sales are down. Season ticket renewals are down. Ratings were *significantly* down already last year. THEN the Red Sox traded Mookie Betts and David Price. I wrote extensively about the trade and how I’m not losing any sleep over it, but Betts was a fan favorite and arguably the best player in the game so a little fan backlash was to be expected. Yet, Red Sox ownership somehow still looked wildly unprepared for the heat. John Henry, Tom Werner, and Sam Kennedy had their annual picnic table presser down in Fort Myers this morning and it went about as well as a Jeb Bush pep rally.

Henry then released a statement on the team’s twitter account that compared trading a former MVP to the time they traded a burnt out, broken down player in Nomar. Not exactly the same, John.

“I know many of you – particularly our youngest fans – are angry or disbelieving or sad about it. I know it’s difficult and disappointing. Some of you no doubt felt the same way when we traded Nomar in 2004.”

I am amazed at how poorly the Red Sox handle the media year after year. Few organizations in America would benefit as much as the Red Sox from a complete PR overhaul. Henry was not only glib to the reception of the Mookie trade, but he openly scoffed at legitimate criticisms.

Kennedy said nobody has asked for a refund – “I think you underestimate our fans,” said Henry at the suggestion – and that the team will not roll back the ticket price increase, another idea that amused Henry.

“As a result of making trades?” he asked.

Red Sox fans don’t complain about paying one of the highest ticket prices in the league, but thats only because they expect the team to compete and spend, every year. It may not be fair to expect the Sox to have the top payroll in the league every year, but it is fair for fans to be upset when the team raises prices (again) and subsequently dumps two of their best players to shed payroll.

Henry can continue to spin tall tales every time he denies this trade was a salary dump, but thats exactly what this was. As I said in my blog about the trade last week, I am an adult and I understand there are budgets in business so while fans may not be happy about it, I get it. But when Henry continues to outright deny it after saying it *himself* just a few months ago is a bad look for the team.

Both Henry and Kennedy wanted to alter, by almost 180 degrees, the prevailing and understandable perception that the Betts trade was made for purely financial reasons. It’s a line of reasoning that was launched last September by Henry himself when he told reporters “This year we need to be under the [competitive balance tax].”

Henry downplayed the notion that financial tailwinds steered the trade.

“…It’s surprising that anyone would think we would outspend every other team in baseball every single year. To me, that’s a little surprising…it has nothing to do with CBT.”

To be fair, this could still be a very good Red Sox team heading into the 2020 season. With young studs like Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Eduardo Rodriguez and veterans like JD Martinez and Chris Sale (if healthy) – it would not shock me to see this team in the mix for a playoff spot. Boston fans aren’t stupid though. This team could be pretty good, but this trade was still a way to shed payroll while recouping assets. Both can be true.

Henry and co. tried to stump on their track record of spending, which includes leading the league the last two years, and never being outside of the Top 5 in terms of payroll since they took over.

Guys, thats what you’re supposed to do.

The Red Sox and Fenway Sports Group as a whole are one of the most valuable franchises on the entire planet. You don’t get credit for acting accordingly.

Not to mention, A LOT of that spending that Henry and Kennedy are fond of pointing to is littered with horrific contracts that nearly sunk the team for years at a time. Carl Crawford, Pablo Sandoval, Rusney Castillo, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi etc. etc.

So we are now just 38 days away from Opening Day, but it seems like the noise surrounding the team is only rising. This is before we even get into Alex Verdugo’s stress fracture in his back and the troubling allegations against him, injuries to Sale and Eovaldi, the term “Opener” being thrown around a bit too much for my liking, and the fact this team still doesn’t have a real closer.

It seems like 2020 could be quite the rocky ride for the Red Sox as they prepare to cross what ownership doesn’t want to admit this is; a bridge year.

So the Red Sox Traded for a Shortstop Named Jeter

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Did he come with a gift basket?

So the Red Sox and Dodgers mercifully completed the Mookie Betts/David Price trade this week. The Twins backed out of the trade so the Dodgers had to throw in some additional prospects to get the deal done. In addition to Alex Verdugo the Dodgers will now also send catching prospect Connor Wong and shortstop prospect Jeter Downs.

Listen I have never heard of Jeter Downs before this so I won’t pretend to be well versed in his potential, BUT my god would it be great if this guy became a stud for the Red Sox. Nothing would be sweeter than snatching back the name “Jeter” from Yankees fans. He is their sacred cow. If there were Jeter shirts all over Landsdowne, and trust me there will be – just look at all the “Mookie” shirts:

It might just make a Yankees fan hang up his gold chain and unbuttoned pinstriped jersey for good.

Ok so lets get down to brass tacks. Jeter Downs was a 1st round pick by the Cincinnati Reds in 2017 before being traded to the Dodgers in the Yasiel Puig trade in 2018. Downs was ranked the No. 87 prospect on the MLB 2019 Prospect Watch and jumped up to No. 44 on the 2020 list, which would immediately make him Boston’s top ranked prospect. (I’m not counting Alex Verdugo here since he’s not a rookie anymore, but heading into 2019 he was ranked anywhere from No. 35 to No. 19, depending on who you read.) Brusdar Graterol, the guy who’s injury history apparently blew up the first version of the Mookie trade, is ranked No. 83 for comparison’s sake so a nice little upgrade from the Sox here.

Here’s his scouting report via MLB.com:

“Despite being one of the youngest regulars (age 19) in the pitcher-friendly Class A Midwest League, he produced 13 homers and 37 steals in his first full pro season — numbers matched by only one other Minor Leaguer (Padres outfielder Buddy Reed). The Dodgers acquired him in December as part of a package for Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Wood and Kyle Farmer.

Downs has the tools to hit for average and power. He combines a simple right-handed swing with a patient, all-fields approach. He’s strong for his size, delivering most of his home runs to his pull side and driving the ball to both gaps.

Downs gets the most out of his average speed, parlaying his aggressiveness and instincts into stolen bases. He played shortstop in his pro debut but spent more time in 2018 at second base, where his arm and range are better fits. He returned to shortstop at the beginning of 2019 and there’s also a possibility that he winds up in center field, but the good news is that he has the bat to profile at all three positions.”

Yea Jeets.

Red Sox Trade Former MVP Mookie Betts to the Dodgers. Lets Break It Down

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ESPN – The Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers have agreed to a blockbuster deal that will send former MVP Mookie Betts and left-hander David Price to Los Angeles for a package that includes outfielder Alex Verdugo, sources tell ESPN.

The trade includes a third team, the Minnesota Twins, with the Dodgers sending starter Kenta Maeda to Minnesota, which in turn will ship hard-throwing pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol to Boston, sources said, confirming a report by The Athletic.

Verdugo, 23, hit .294/.342/.475 with a 2.2 WAR in 377 plate appearances for the Dodgers last season. He took over in center field when A.J. Pollock was out. Verdugo didn’t play after Aug. 4 because of a back injury he re-aggravated while on a rehab assignment in September.

He is excellent against left-handed pitching and is under team control through the 2024 season. He will make the MLB minimum of $563,500 in 2020. He’s also a member of the Mexican national team.

Graterol, a hard-throwing, 21-year-old right-hander, pitched 9⅔ innings last season in the majors, going 1-1 with a 4.66 ERA. In the minors last season, the Venezuelan was 7-0 with a 1.92 ERA across three levels. He was rated the No. 83 overall prospect for 2020 by MLB pipeline.

In the words of Red Sox owner John Henry, “It’s not ideal.”

It is an absolute bummer to trade a dynamic, homegrown, and MVP level talent. Theres no other way to put it. A gross mismanagement of assets if you will, but a situation the Red Sox put themselves in. Mookie Betts seemed like a great teammate, a good dude off the field, and was fun as hell to watch, but he is a businessman. Thats not meant to be a knock because everyone should look to get paid what they think they’re worth, but that meant the Sox were never going to get a hometown discount, let alone sign him before he hit Free Agency. Lou Merloni told a story on NBC Sports last night about how Mookie’s been very consistent over the years on how he approaches these situations. Merloni brought up how the Sox offered Mookie a signing bonus of $300K out of high school, but he counter offered with $750K and threatened to go to college if the Sox didn’t meet his number, which of course they did to sign their 5th round pick. My point is the Red Sox saw the writing on the wall, had a value in their minds of what Mookie was worth and realized it probably wasn’t going to be what he figured to make on the open market next season so they chose to (barely) get ahead of it and recoup some assets.

Maybe if the Sox managed their assets a little better they could have not worried about paying top dollar to re-sign Mookie Betts next offseason. Drunken sailor deals given out to David Price, Nathan Eovaldi, and Chris Sale over the years put them in a tight spot financially. You can’t pay everybody. Or the team could have traded him last year to get a bigger return. However, Mookie was never going to sign before hitting free agency unless the Sox offered him $500 million so lets not pretend otherwise.

Oh, and let us never forget *when* the news of this trade actually broke.

The Return

Not great! This is where I do have a problem with the deal. I am an unabashed “Prospects Guy,” much to the chagrin of Big Z. My stance has always been I am OK trading Mookie Betts if it meant restocking the depleted farm system, which the Red Sox did not do here. They got one young major league outfielder and one pitching prospect. Not exactly a haul for arguably the second best player in the game.

The main piece of the deal is Alex Verdugo, who had a 3.1 WAR in 106 games at 23-years-old and will be under team control for the next five seasons. Not terrible. To be fair, prior to last season Verdugo was the Dodgers’ top prospect.

“One of the best pure hitting prospects in baseball, Verdugo recognizes pitches and controls the strike zone better than most players his age. He uses the whole field, repeatedly barreling balls with a quick left-handed stroke geared for line drives. Though he homered just seven times in 132 games last season, his hitting ability, bat speed and strength should translate into average power if he adds some loft to his swing.

As good as he is in the batter’s box, Verdugo’s best tool actually is his plus-plus arm. Despite average speed, he has spent much of his pro career in center field, where his instincts help him get the job done. Scouts are split on whether he can handle center on a daily basis in the Majors, but no one doubts that his arm would play in right.”

Then there’s also this, which I would like to chalk up to just a young guy being a young guy, but Boston fans will have zero patience for that as the centerpiece of a Mookie Betts deal.

The Red Sox also received the No. 83 ranked prospect in baseball from Minesota with pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol, who’s *ceiling* is a No. 2-3 starter according to baseball guys like Sean McAdam.

The realistic hope is that Graterol turns into a young, cheap closer for the Sox. Boston absolutely needs a young flamethrower in the pen, but it seems like a player of that caliber could have come much cheaper. Graterol will be under team control until 2026.

Oh and the Sox will also be paying HALF of David Price’s remaining contract for him to play elsewhere for the next three years! Good grief.

The Red Sox screwed this up by not having a long term plan, which they haven’t had since Theo Epstein left town. They change organizational philosophies at the drop of a hat, which leaves you with these gigantic problems down the line.

Also, can someone make sure John Henry never gets in front of a microphone again? He hamstrung Chaim Bloom from Day 1 by announcing to the rest of the league that the Sox were looking to get under the luxury tax so every team in baseball knew the Sox HAD to trade Mookie. Add in the fact they were trying to shed Price’s contract too and the Dodgers were one of the only teams in the league that could make a deal work, and the Dodgers knew it.

Get your “It’s Not Ideal” shirts now!

The Contract

I don’t feel comfortable giving any player in the league a 12 year $400+ million contract, let alone a 5’9″ guy. If his power slips at all, that contract will be an absolute albatross, making Jacoby Ellsbury look like a bargain. Granted on those mega contracts you’re paying for the front half and hoping for the best in the second half, but tell that to the teams paying Ellsbury, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and Robinson Cano just to name a few recent examples.

“Stop Rooting for Rich Guys to Save Money.”

Okay, this is one I need to address because I could not care less what John Henry’s ROI is on the Red Sox so I’m not rooting for one of the most valuable franchises in the world to save money. However, I am also an adult and realize the situation the team was in. Every business has a budget and yes the Sox could absolutely “afford” Mookie Betts, but by doing so they would blow through their budget, not to mention the landfall of luxury tax penalties they would have to bear for being a repeat offender. I’m talking fines, lost draft picks, international signing money etc. etc. You would be strapping your team by overreaching on one contract. Not an efficient way to run a business. And thats if Mookie plays at an MVP level for the next 5-12 years, which he won’t.

Looking Ahead

So by making the impossible decision to trade a home grown superstar player the Sox have freed up a ton of money AND gotten ride of that pill David Price. This is what Theo and his disciples fetishized as a “bridge year.” Take a step back in order to take two steps forward rather than dumping more money into the problem, which is exactly what got them into this situation in the first place.

You could say I’m a bit more optimistic, or at least pragmatic, than most of what I’m seeing on Twitter today, but make no mistake: the Red Sox just punted on the 2020 season. Ownership could have kept Mookie and made one last run at it this year even if they knew he wasn’t going to resign, but maybe they saw the writing on the wall. Eovaldi, Sale, and Price are always hurt, the Yankees are loaded, and this team’s chances of winning a World Series were precarious. So they figured to punt on 2020, and dump Mookie and Price rather than pay through the nose to field a Wild Card team.

Here’s hoping they now put together an actual organizational plan for the first time in a decade and get after it next year. At least we’ll have the XFL to watch this spring!