Tag: Baseball Prospects

Red Sox Trade Former MVP Mookie Betts to the Dodgers. Lets Break It Down

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ESPN – The Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers have agreed to a blockbuster deal that will send former MVP Mookie Betts and left-hander David Price to Los Angeles for a package that includes outfielder Alex Verdugo, sources tell ESPN.

The trade includes a third team, the Minnesota Twins, with the Dodgers sending starter Kenta Maeda to Minnesota, which in turn will ship hard-throwing pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol to Boston, sources said, confirming a report by The Athletic.

Verdugo, 23, hit .294/.342/.475 with a 2.2 WAR in 377 plate appearances for the Dodgers last season. He took over in center field when A.J. Pollock was out. Verdugo didn’t play after Aug. 4 because of a back injury he re-aggravated while on a rehab assignment in September.

He is excellent against left-handed pitching and is under team control through the 2024 season. He will make the MLB minimum of $563,500 in 2020. He’s also a member of the Mexican national team.

Graterol, a hard-throwing, 21-year-old right-hander, pitched 9⅔ innings last season in the majors, going 1-1 with a 4.66 ERA. In the minors last season, the Venezuelan was 7-0 with a 1.92 ERA across three levels. He was rated the No. 83 overall prospect for 2020 by MLB pipeline.

In the words of Red Sox owner John Henry, “It’s not ideal.”

It is an absolute bummer to trade a dynamic, homegrown, and MVP level talent. Theres no other way to put it. A gross mismanagement of assets if you will, but a situation the Red Sox put themselves in. Mookie Betts seemed like a great teammate, a good dude off the field, and was fun as hell to watch, but he is a businessman. Thats not meant to be a knock because everyone should look to get paid what they think they’re worth, but that meant the Sox were never going to get a hometown discount, let alone sign him before he hit Free Agency. Lou Merloni told a story on NBC Sports last night about how Mookie’s been very consistent over the years on how he approaches these situations. Merloni brought up how the Sox offered Mookie a signing bonus of $300K out of high school, but he counter offered with $750K and threatened to go to college if the Sox didn’t meet his number, which of course they did to sign their 5th round pick. My point is the Red Sox saw the writing on the wall, had a value in their minds of what Mookie was worth and realized it probably wasn’t going to be what he figured to make on the open market next season so they chose to (barely) get ahead of it and recoup some assets.

Maybe if the Sox managed their assets a little better they could have not worried about paying top dollar to re-sign Mookie Betts next offseason. Drunken sailor deals given out to David Price, Nathan Eovaldi, and Chris Sale over the years put them in a tight spot financially. You can’t pay everybody. Or the team could have traded him last year to get a bigger return. However, Mookie was never going to sign before hitting free agency unless the Sox offered him $500 million so lets not pretend otherwise.

Oh, and let us never forget *when* the news of this trade actually broke.

The Return

Not great! This is where I do have a problem with the deal. I am an unabashed “Prospects Guy,” much to the chagrin of Big Z. My stance has always been I am OK trading Mookie Betts if it meant restocking the depleted farm system, which the Red Sox did not do here. They got one young major league outfielder and one pitching prospect. Not exactly a haul for arguably the second best player in the game.

The main piece of the deal is Alex Verdugo, who had a 3.1 WAR in 106 games at 23-years-old and will be under team control for the next five seasons. Not terrible. To be fair, prior to last season Verdugo was the Dodgers’ top prospect.

“One of the best pure hitting prospects in baseball, Verdugo recognizes pitches and controls the strike zone better than most players his age. He uses the whole field, repeatedly barreling balls with a quick left-handed stroke geared for line drives. Though he homered just seven times in 132 games last season, his hitting ability, bat speed and strength should translate into average power if he adds some loft to his swing.

As good as he is in the batter’s box, Verdugo’s best tool actually is his plus-plus arm. Despite average speed, he has spent much of his pro career in center field, where his instincts help him get the job done. Scouts are split on whether he can handle center on a daily basis in the Majors, but no one doubts that his arm would play in right.”

Then there’s also this, which I would like to chalk up to just a young guy being a young guy, but Boston fans will have zero patience for that as the centerpiece of a Mookie Betts deal.

The Red Sox also received the No. 83 ranked prospect in baseball from Minesota with pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol, who’s *ceiling* is a No. 2-3 starter according to baseball guys like Sean McAdam.

The realistic hope is that Graterol turns into a young, cheap closer for the Sox. Boston absolutely needs a young flamethrower in the pen, but it seems like a player of that caliber could have come much cheaper. Graterol will be under team control until 2026.

Oh and the Sox will also be paying HALF of David Price’s remaining contract for him to play elsewhere for the next three years! Good grief.

The Red Sox screwed this up by not having a long term plan, which they haven’t had since Theo Epstein left town. They change organizational philosophies at the drop of a hat, which leaves you with these gigantic problems down the line.

Also, can someone make sure John Henry never gets in front of a microphone again? He hamstrung Chaim Bloom from Day 1 by announcing to the rest of the league that the Sox were looking to get under the luxury tax so every team in baseball knew the Sox HAD to trade Mookie. Add in the fact they were trying to shed Price’s contract too and the Dodgers were one of the only teams in the league that could make a deal work, and the Dodgers knew it.

Get your “It’s Not Ideal” shirts now!

The Contract

I don’t feel comfortable giving any player in the league a 12 year $400+ million contract, let alone a 5’9″ guy. If his power slips at all, that contract will be an absolute albatross, making Jacoby Ellsbury look like a bargain. Granted on those mega contracts you’re paying for the front half and hoping for the best in the second half, but tell that to the teams paying Ellsbury, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and Robinson Cano just to name a few recent examples.

“Stop Rooting for Rich Guys to Save Money.”

Okay, this is one I need to address because I could not care less what John Henry’s ROI is on the Red Sox so I’m not rooting for one of the most valuable franchises in the world to save money. However, I am also an adult and realize the situation the team was in. Every business has a budget and yes the Sox could absolutely “afford” Mookie Betts, but by doing so they would blow through their budget, not to mention the landfall of luxury tax penalties they would have to bear for being a repeat offender. I’m talking fines, lost draft picks, international signing money etc. etc. You would be strapping your team by overreaching on one contract. Not an efficient way to run a business. And thats if Mookie plays at an MVP level for the next 5-12 years, which he won’t.

Looking Ahead

So by making the impossible decision to trade a home grown superstar player the Sox have freed up a ton of money AND gotten ride of that pill David Price. This is what Theo and his disciples fetishized as a “bridge year.” Take a step back in order to take two steps forward rather than dumping more money into the problem, which is exactly what got them into this situation in the first place.

You could say I’m a bit more optimistic, or at least pragmatic, than most of what I’m seeing on Twitter today, but make no mistake: the Red Sox just punted on the 2020 season. Ownership could have kept Mookie and made one last run at it this year even if they knew he wasn’t going to resign, but maybe they saw the writing on the wall. Eovaldi, Sale, and Price are always hurt, the Yankees are loaded, and this team’s chances of winning a World Series were precarious. So they figured to punt on 2020, and dump Mookie and Price rather than pay through the nose to field a Wild Card team.

Here’s hoping they now put together an actual organizational plan for the first time in a decade and get after it next year. At least we’ll have the XFL to watch this spring!

Who Was the Red Sox Prospect You Thought Couldn’t Miss But Flamed Out?

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The Globe raised this question and I immediately shouted CRAIG HANSEN at my computer. I’ll never forget seeing a guy walking around in a legit stitched Hansen jersey one summer weeks before the kid even got called up. People, including myself, were that confident in the St. John’s closer. Welp, he never really panned out. Him and Manny Delcarmen were supposed to lock down the 8th and the 9th at Fenway for a decade but it just didn’t happen. Craig Hansen only played four seasons and finished with an 6.34 ERA and now is literally an insurance salesman. One of my old buddies always theorized Hansen didn’t work out because of the stitches on the baseball. Supposedly he was so dominant in college because college baseballs have stitches that are more raised so it was easier to throw wicked breaking balls. Whether thats true or not I have no idea, but it was interesting to ponder. Well what about you? Who were you CONVINCED was going to be a stud but never made it? Cla Meredith? Anderson Espinoza?

Former Red Sox Top Prospect Yoan Moncada Likely to Switch Positions; Dombrowski Deserves Credit for This Move

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Yahoo – White Sox second baseman Yoán Moncada is “open to a position change,” according to comments made by GM Rick Hahn over the weekend. It appears to be something the club is considering as they head into their third rebuilding year, though Hahn noted that the decision would hinge on any pickups the club makes over the offseason.

It’s not the first time Hahn or Moncada has addressed the potential shift away from second base. After the 23-year-old infielder closed out his 2018 run with 21 errors and a .963 fielding percentage (eclipsed only by the Reds’ José Peraza and Red Sox’ Rafael Devers, the latter of whom committed 24 errors with a .926 fielding percentage), Hahn told reporters he believes Moncada’s athleticism will make him an “above-average defender at other positions.” Moncada himself said he’d be willing to move back to third base, a position he occupied during his rookie campaign with the Red Sox in 2016. There’s also a possibility that he could be considered at shortstop or center field, although he has yet to play either position at the major league level.

Full disclosure: I am a HUGE prospect guy. I hem and haw about every trade the Red Sox make that involves high level prospects. For better or for worse, I am very reluctant to include top prospects in a deal. Maybe it’s the Theo Epstein in me, who knows? Big Z is the exact opposite when it comes to handling prospects, but it’s what makes us different that makes us great, guys.

I think Dealer Dave has as much regard for individual prospects as a college kid has for what brand of beer he drinks, but Dombrowski deserves credit for making the right decision here.

I have been fond of beating on the drum that Dave Dombrowski primarily makes moves that any of us could make like signing the most expensive free agents in David Price and JD Martinez or trading top prospects for premiere talent like Craig Kimbrel and Chris Sale. Something that I have yet to give him credit for though is making the absolute correct decision in the Chris Sale trade.

The Red Sox coveted Chris Sale for years and the season before they finally pried him away from Chicago, reports had mentioned the White Sox wanted Mookie Betts AND Andrew Benintendi in any deal.

Obviously that didn’t happen, but when the trade was finally consummated the Red Sox and Dombrowski essentially said to Chicago we can’t give you those two guys, but we can give you our *top* prospect in Yoan Moncada, who was also the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball at the time. And again, full disclosure, I was big on Moncada so this is far from revisionist history.

Some of my commentary aged better than others…

“I feel like Costanza after he ate one of Kramer’s mangoes from Joe’s fruit shop. You want to talk about excited? How about having a player waiting in the wings that many scouts say projects to be most similar to Mike Trout…Whether he sticks at 2B remains to be seen, Pedroia is signed through 2021 so that could be a logjam issue.” – April 25, 2016

So while Chris Sale has been lights out (when healthy), it was still hard to trade away a guy as talented as Moncada. Things haven’t really gone so well for him thus far though. While still only 23 years old, Moncada has been an unmitigated disaster to put it lightly.

In 901 Plate Appearances in 211 games over parts of three seasons, Moncada is batting .234/.319/.399. That amounts to a little less than two full seasons so it’s not a huge sample size, but Moncada also led the league in strike outs last season with 217 K’s, which is alarming.

But at least he can play defense right? Well, actually he made 21 errors at second base last year, good for third in the league.

Now Chicago has publicly broached the idea of moving Moncada to another position like third base, center field or even shortstop, which makes no sense. Shortstop is a much harder position defensively with a longer throw to first. It seems like the White Sox are just looking for somewhere to plant Moncada while they shuffle some roster pieces around. It’s been reported that the White Sox are going to court Manny Machado who could play either SS or 3B and they also have another first round pick coming up in the system that apparently is a stud 2B and Moncada seems like anything but a natural second baseman.

Now just to go back to me giving Dombrowski some credit for a second; the Red Sox could have very easily traded Benintendi as part of that deal instead. So lets take a look at how Benny’s numbers stack up when compared to Moncada.

Benintendi is nearly a year older than Moncada and has a bit more experience at the major league level with 1,437 Plate Appearances over 333 games in parts of three seasons. For his career, Benintendi is slashing .282/.359/.447. The power is about even so far between the two as Benintendi wacked 16 dingers to Moncada’s 17 last season. Whether you value it or not, Benintendi also topped him in steals 21 to 12 last year. I won’t get into RBIs because thats largely dependent on the team around you, which is garbage in Chicago. In another display of power, Benintendi also bested Moncada in doubles last season 41 to 32.

Benintendi has essentially been twice as valuable to the Red Sox with a career WAR of 7.0 to Moncada’s 3.5 (3.9 to 2.0 in 2018 alone).

So it would take some serious mental gymnastics to argue that Moncada has been or remains the better prospect thus far, especially with Benintendi playing such a vital role in the playoffs for a 108 win Red Sox team.

The best prospect Chicago got in the Sale trade now seems more likely to be Michael Kopech than it is Moncada. Kopech is the No. 4 overall prospect in all of baseball on MLB.com and looks like an absolute stud in the making. Just look at his MLB.com scouting report:

“Kopech throws as hard and is as difficult to hit as any starter in the Minor Leagues, which has prompted comparisons to Noah Syndergaard. His fastball, which sits at 96-99 mph, repeatedly hits triple digits with late run that keeps it off barrels. Hitters who try to sit on his heater get embarrassed by his upper-80s slider, which features two-plane break and is a plus-plus offering at its best.

Kopech just needs some refinement before he’s ready to pitch at the front of a big league rotation.”

Butttt he only threw 14.1 innings last year as he tore his UCL and underwent Tommy John Surgery because of course he did. So as big as I am on Kopech, his timeline was obviously pushed back a couple of years with the elbow injury.

Dombrowski swung and missed on the Drew Pomeranz – Anderson Espinoza trade, but he absolutely nailed the Chris Sale – Yoan Moncada trade and to that I tip my cap.

 

Henry Owens Still Can’t Throw a Strike: Should Probably Be On Suicide Watch

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Seriously, someone better take away Henry Owens’ shoelaces and bedsheets.

“CONTROL REMAINS ISSUE FOR OWENS IN AFL
Henry Owens made his first start for the Peoria Javelinas of the Arizona Fall League on Thursday, walking five and allowing four runs on two hits in just an inning of work. The left-hander issued 115 free passes in 126 innings in the minors this year.”

This guy just cannot get the ball over the plate. Every time I hear a story about him its about how many batters he walked. Honestly feel bad for the guy who clearly has some sort of mental block. Someone please get this guy to a sports psychologist before he just burns the ballpark down.

For a player that was once an untouchable prospect its crazy that now he can’t get through two innings of fall ball without walking a half dozen guys. He does seem to be trying out some new mechanics though dropping down to more of a sidearm release point, so maybe that helps, maybe not, but the guy has to try anything and everything to just get the ball over the plate at this point.

In his last 3 seasons in the minors (leaving his MLB experience out because its limited) his walks have gone from 56 in 122 IP, to 81 in 137 IP, to 115 in 126 IP. Meanwhile the League average in 2017 for Walks per 9 IP (BB9) was 3.2. Owens comes in at a cool 4.9 BB9 career average, but has only gotten worse over the past 3 years with his BB9 going from 4.1 in 2015 to 5.3 in 2016 and 8.2 in 2017 (minor league stats).

Red Sox Ownership Blocked Dombrowski from Trading More Top Prospects. Good.

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WEEI – After a number of deals involving top-level prospects thinned the Red Sox farm system, ownership ordered president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski not to deal any top-end talent at the July 31 trade deadline, according to a report. Per Sean McAdam of Boston Sports Journal (subscription required), ownership made it clear to Dombrowski at the deadline that he was not to touch the top of the farm system. He instead dealt middle-tier prospects to acquire infielder Eduardo Nunez and reliever Addison Reed.

I know, I know, the Red Sox brought Dave Dombrowski in to build the team his way. And his way just happens to be to trade every prospect under the fucking sun to win now. Except theres GOT to be a point where you sit back and think hey maybe lets pump the breaks so we have SOME young guys in the pipeline. I am far from a bleeding heart prospect hoarder. I’ve seen too many “untouchable” prospects turn into absolute scrubs like Henry Owens (Baseball America No. 44 prospect in 2015). And for every Anthony Rizzo (Red Sox No. 8 prospect before getting dealt) you regret trading away there are 10 Casey Kellys (as high as Baseball America No. 24 prospect in 2009).

Something we talked about on our all Red Sox podcast this week (SUBSCRIBE!) was how Big Z and I disagreed on what to do with prospects. He says ship em all out because you’re going to miss with prospects more than you hit. I disagree. Not because I think they’re all going to be studs. I’m more concerned with the PERCEPTION of value they bring, which is why I always hated the Pomeranz trade. Admittedly he’s been pitching really well of late and Anderson Espinoza just blew his arm out and will have to get Tommy John. BUT, at the time Espinoza was your top pitching prospect and one of the most highly regarded prospects in all of baseball. Dombrowski traded him for a reliever turned starter who ultimately ended up being a middle innings mop up guy for the Red Sox down the stretch.

Sure he’s pitched well as of late, but you can’t point to the Espinoza injury and say Dombrowski won the trade. Thats using the benefit of hindsight. My point is the PERCEPTION of Espinoza’s value was much higher and the Sox should have gotten a lot more for him or held onto him. Not because I think he’s going to be the next Pedro, but because the consensus around the league was he would be a stud, which means you gotta get more.

Not to mention, take a look at Dombrowski’s last place of employment; the Detroit Tigers. Dombrowski had them humming along pretty good for a couple of years but he GUTTED the farm system and now they are in the middle of a brutal rebuild. I would hate to see the Sox in a similar position in 3-4 years. You can always add expensive free agents, but you need to supplement that with young, cheap prospects or you’ll quickly turn into the pre-Baby Bomber Yankees with Teixeira, CC Sabathia, A-Rod and others collecting paychecks on their way out the door towards retirement.

All of this is a long winded way of saying I’m glad someone put the stop sign up on Dombrowski IF it was over concerns of dealing more top prospects. If it was about concerns of going over the luxury tax then I retract this whole blog post because you’re the fucking Red Sox, you can afford it. But since he took over as President of baseball operations Dombrowski has stripped the farm system. In the two years since taking over he has traded 16+ prospects. You can read Alex Speier’s breakdown of them all, but here are the highlights below.

  • Manuel Margot (Part of the Craig Kimbrel trade: the No. 14 prospect in MLB at the start of 2016 and last week’s NL Player of the Week)
  • Yoan Moncada (Part of the Chris Sale trade: Sale has been a stud so no regrets about this, but Moncada was the No. 2 prospect in MLB this season behind only…Andrew Benintendi)
  • Michael Kopech (Sale trade: 100 mph heater with a 3.25 ERA and 134 K’s in 105 innings in Triple-A this year)
  • Travis Shaw (Tyler Thornburg trade: not technically a prospect, but Thornburg has yet to pitch for the Sox and Shaw is batting a cool .291 with 24 HR and 74 RBI for the Brewers)

I’m just not sold on Dombrowski’s player evaluation, which is probably my biggest concern. At least when it comes to the health or mental fortitude of players. Guys he’s traded for that have gotten injured include Thornbug, Carson Smith, Drew Pomeranz and not to mention signing David Price who has battled injuries as well as the local media. Yuck.

At some point you have to hold onto the young guys. The current team is littered with home grown talent (that are cheap too) including Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi. Thats a pretty stocked roster why not trade away some young guys then? Well because when the Red Sox have needed depth due to injuries they’ve basically been up shits creek because of all those prospects dealt. Thats how you get Henry Owens (now in Double-A) and Doug Fister making starts. Thank God for the way Devers has played or the Sox might be in a real bad place down the stretch.

The Red Sox currently have 3 prospects in Baseball America’s 2017 Top 100 – Benintendi (No. 1), Devers (No. 18) and Jason Groome (No. 43) — down from 5 in 2016 when they had Moncada (No. 3), Benintendi (No. 15), Devers (No. 18), Espinoza (No. 19) and Kopech (No. 89). Kopech jumped from 89 to 32, Moncada jumped from 3 to. 2, Benintendi jumped to 15 to 1, Devers stayed at No. 18, Espinzoa actually went down from 19 to 21 (2017 is Groome’s first year in pro ball).

My point is you don’t need to hold onto ALL of the prospects, but you do need to hold onto SOME of them. Your move, Dave.