Although it’s currently still 36 degrees outside, Opening Day at Fenway marks the real end of winter in Boston and despite the Red Sox projected wins total, it’s impossible to be in a bad mood today. In order to truly and fully move on to 2023 though, first we must take a look back at last season.
To be fair, the Sox were coming off a 92 win season in 2021 and an electric ALCS appearance so I may have gotten wrapped up in the hype a little bit.
This year expectations are, to put it nicely, circling the drain already as the consensus has the Red Sox finishing in last place for the second year in a row. With that being said, let’s not lose sight of all the positives that came out of the disappointing (and confusing) 2022 season. To fully appreciate the full picture of last year, take a look at the 5 Best and 5 Worst Parts of Another Red Sox Last Place Finish.
But, as they famously like to say, if you don’t laugh, you’ll cry.
So with that in mind, have a good deep belly laugh at some of the wildest moments, reflect on the bittersweet moments, get excited about the potential shown, and fire up some game day dogs for Opening Day baby!
The Boston Red Sox are once again at a crossroads when it comes to their organizational philosophy, which is something fans have heard before. The Sox are seemingly stuck between being the free spending free agency big players of yesteryear and the fiscally responsible, efficient, consistent machine they want to become.
The only problem with trying to find and capitalize on every market inefficiency is the boom or bust nature of doing so. Moneyball was the monster hit it was and something that made the sport cool to a generation of baseball “outsiders” because it took something nobody was investing in and spun it into a game in of itself; an entire team building philosophy for organizations. Except, the Red Sox knew that you couldn’t rely on the idea Moneyball alone or else they’d end up like the Oakland A’s; consistently pretty good but not enough star power to push a team over the finish line. So the Sox supplemented OBP diamonds in the rough like Kevin Youkilis and homegrown studs like Dustin Pedroia with highly paid superstars like Ortiz, Schilling, Damon, Foulke, Beckett and on and on.
Now this isn’t to say the team needs to abandon any notion of being creative while opting instead to sign every top tier free agent and trade away every Baseball America darling to essentially buy a World Series. Nor does the team need to go the complete opposite way and try to compete with a model that the Tampa Bay Rays have tried (and failed) to win with for decades.
But there has to be a balance.
The Sox have had Ben Cherington, Dave Dombrowski, and Chaim Bloom all in charge of building this team at various points over the past eight years. Three GMs/Head of Baseball Ops/Chief Baseball Officer or whatever you want to call it these days in eight years is going to make it difficult to find a consistent organizational philosophy and stick to it. Dombrowski and Bloom in particular could not be more antithetical from each other in terms of philosophy.
This goes all the way back to 2014 when the Sox opted to trade Jon Lester to the A’s when they realized they weren’t going to be able to resign him after failed negotiations. Lester then signed with the Cubs in December of 2014 for more than double what the Sox had initially offered him.
The Red Sox had seemingly adopted an organizational philosophy that they don’t sign players on the wrong side of 30 to mega contracts because the value just isn’t there. Not something I agreed with, but sure at least there’s a plan in place. (This is a notion that John Henry has bristled at as an overreaction from fans to comments he made in a 2014 Bloomberg Business article.)
In 2015, the Sox finished in last place, 15 games out of first with only one starter on the staff making 30+ starts and that was Wade Miley.
Just one year after Lester joined the Cubs, the Red Sox reversed course and signed 30-year-old David Price to a 7-year $217 million contract, which at the time was the highest average annual salary for a pitcher ever.
Now obviously the Price contract had its ups and downs as did the 4-year $67.5 deal for Nathan Eovaldi, as has the 5-year $145 extension for Chris Sale. There are pros and cons to building entirely through the farm system and market inefficiencies just like there are pros and cons (albeit more costly cons) of prioritizing top tier free agents.
With Xander Bogaerts skipping town for warmer weather and an astronomical $280 million payday in San Diego, the attention now turns to the impending free agency of another homegrown star in Rafael Devers. As Bloom was recently quoted on Rob Bradford’s podcast, the Sox are willing to resign Devers “if there’s something within reason, or even a little outside of reason.” As history has shown, reasonable may not be enough to get it done with a player of Devers’ caliber. After seeing what Bogaerts got paid, the Sox may have already soured on the idea of spending the dollars that a Devers deal will command, but the market is the market.
As Bill Belichick once famously said, “It’s just our job to do business as business is being done.”
It’s time for the Red Sox to truly decide what they want to be. Pleasing everybody simply isn’t possible, but frequently altering course every few years is a sure-fire way to anger everyone. So whichever direction it decides to go, the team needs to swallow hard and rip the band-aid off, commit to a course of action, burn the boats. Pick whichever figure of speech you prefer.
Whether we’re watching Rafael Devers playing in Petco Park or Fenway Park in 2024 will be the clear anemometer for the Boston Red Sox.
The Red Sox are fresh off of their fifth last place finish in the past 11 seasons. That is absolutely insane for a team with the resources it has and the scrutiny the Sox face year in and year out. Obviously you can’t win the World Series every year and nobody expects that, but you better believe Red Sox fans expect a playoff team every year. Or at the very least a team that is pushing for a playoff spot and not something half the city tuned out in August.
As the baseball season continues for the more fortunate and we all turn our attention to the Bruins and Celtics, I figured what better time to breakdown the 5 Best and 5 Worst parts of this disastrous season? I won’t lie, it was significantly easier (and faster) to make the 5 Worst List than the 5 Best, but as much of a flaming dumpster this season turned into let’s not lose sight of every positive development.
5 Best Parts of the 2022 Red Sox Season
1.) The Youth Movement Has Officially Arrived
The Sox had what some called the worst farm system in all of baseball just a few years ago to being ranked No. 11 in MLB this season. Great, hooray, lets throw a party, I know I know, BUT that tree is starting to bear fruit at the major league level. It’s still early as all three of these guys made their debut in 2022, but Brayan Bello, Triston Casas and to a lesser extent Kutter Crawford showed they are ready to produce at the big league level. Beyond that, there were legitimate showcases of some seriously elite budding talent at Fenway this season.
Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds say that Brayan Bello’s changeup reminds them of Pedro Martínez.
Then you add in Triston Casas, who has shown *prodigious* power and plate discipline along with a really calming influence over at first base defensively. Now we’re cooking with gas.
Top it off with young guys like Tanner Houck (3.15 ERA) and Kutter Crawford (led the rotation in SO/9) and the Red Sox suddenly have some legitimate young talent on their roster, which is something they’ve struggled to restock in recent years.
2.) This Team Isn’t *Too* Far Off
This isn’t a roster that is so bad that it requires a complete tear down. In fact the Red Sox aren’t all that far off from returning to serious contention. Despite their complete cratering after the All-Star break, they were one of the top 3 teams in the AL in the first half so with a couple of key moves in free agency (read: open the damn wallet) and some (any) actual good fortune with injuries, this team could be right back in the mix next year. There will ample opportunity to shore up the rotation this offseason with free agents including guys like Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodón, Just Verlander, Chris Bassitt, and that’s before we mention their own guy Nathan Eovaldi.
As for the lineup, after getting Kike Hernandez back from injury, Casas getting called up, and when Trevor Story is actually healthy, this is still one of the better lineups in baseball when at full Megazord power. Xander Bogaerts and Raffy Devers showcased what the heart of the Red Sox order can look like for the next 5 years IF the team is smart and extends both players.
Obviously when I say “this team isn’t too far off” it implies that only remains the case if they stop pretending to be the Tampa Bay Rays and crack open John Henry’s piggy back, but there is a clear path back to contention.
3.) Garrett Whitlock is the Real Deal
Arguably the biggest pro of the 2022 season was Garrett Whitlock proved his success last year wasn’t just a flash in the pan. However, the Sox did exactly what I didn’t want them to do with Whitlock: jerk him back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation. Shockingly, Whitlock’s body didn’t hold up and he hit the IL multiple times before ending his season early to undergo hip surgery. By all reports it doesn’t seem like a major surgery so he should be fine for next season, but the Sox *have* to pick a role for Whitlock and stick to it. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I want him in the rotation. I understand the game has changed and there is less of an emphasis on starters, less pitchers going through a lineup three or more times, and a greater value placed on middle relievers. But that doesn’t change the fact that a top of the line starter is going to give you 200 innings vs maybe half that for a workhorse reliever. Whitlock is incredibly valuable out of the bullpen because he is lights out, but that value was magnified because the Sox just didn’t have many other reliable relievers to turn to this year. Shore up the bullpen with actual, legitimate additions, set Whitlock up to be a top of the rotation starter and lets go.
4.) Michael Wacha Was a Revelation
If you recall, I was not all that optimistic about Wacha coming to Boston because it had been a while since he was an effective MLB starting pitcher. But, I am not afraid to admit when I am wrong and when healthy (my god I am saying that a lot today), Michael Wacha was arguably the best starter on the team. Wacha finished the season at 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA in 127.1 IP and 104 strikeouts. Having signed a one-year contract for this season, the Sox need to bring this guy back.
Simply put, this is the Chaim Bloom experience. Bloom’s roster management is reminiscent of me walking into Marhsall’s. Sometimes I find really solid workout clothes that are comfortable, affordable, and even name brand. Sometimes I buy a pair of jeans for $12 dollars that rip right down the middle after a couple of times wearing them, ya know because they’re $12 jeans. Once in a while I get a real gem, like the time I found a rare throwback red Patriots Tom Brady jersey for just $20. So there are days I find absolute gold for $20, other times I walk out with an absolute piece of shit that I know I’m probably never going to wear more than once. But like Chaim Bloom, I’m never going to stop shopping at Marshall’s. In case this was too dense to read through, Michael Wacha is the red Brady jersey and the $12 jeans are the $10 million James Paxton contract (0 IP in 2022).
5.) Uhh..
5 Worst Parts of the 2022 Red Sox Season
1.) Finished in Last Place, Yet Again
The Boston #RedSox finished last just once from 1933-2011.
The Sox (72-81) now are on verge of finishing last for the 5th time in 11 years.
It certainly has been feast or famine for Sox during this stretch: 4 first place finishes. 2 World Series titles. 5 last-place finishes.
As I mentioned earlier in this blog, this is the fifth time the Red Sox have finished in the basement in the last 11 seasons. If the two World Series titles sprinkled in over that same period have caused people to overlook the low times, then the tweet above should hit you like a sledgehammer. The wild fluctuation of this franchise from top of the mountain to dumpster fire year after year would be impressive if it weren’t so maddening. For a team with a $200M+ payroll it’s just not acceptable to finish in last place. In fairness the division is much improved from the days when it was a two team race between the Sox and the Yankees back in the day, but the Sox finished a whopping 21 games out of first place.
2.) Absolute Abysmal Record vs AL East
This division has grown into one of the toughest in all of baseball, but the Sox got absolutely walloped by their division rivals this year, going 26-50 vs the AL East. If you can’t keep pace with your peers, take advantage of a distinct home field advantage at Fenway, AND finish behind the perpetually rebuilding Orioles, then something is seriously wrong.
3.) Chris Sale Injured Yet Again
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, just wait until Chris Sale is back, Chris Sale will be better than any trade deadline deal, the Chris Sale injury isn’t considered significant etc. etc. I love Chris Sale so this isn’t Sale Slander, but at 33-years-old and after six(!) years in Boston, he is what he is at this point in his career. Coming back from another offseason injury (broken rib, Tommy John, take your pick) Sale pitched only 5.2 innings this year after a comebacker broke his pinky in just his second start back. I actually felt bad for Sale after this one because it’s just one thing after the next for a guy who clearly relishes pitching in Boston and just wants to be on the mound. With that being said, anything the team gets from Sale here on out has to be considered gravy; not something the team can rely on. In 2021 Sale pitched just 42.2 innings, 0 IP in 2020, 147.1 Ip in 2019, 158 IP in 2018, and 214.1 IP in 2017.
It doesn’t take an economics degree to see the trend line there.
So while I love Sale, I am not banking on him to be the savior of this rotation anymore. It’s negligent to do so at this point. The Sox need to act as if he’s not coming back and build a pitching staff that if Sale does come back healthy then the team will have a good problem finding him some innings. We’ve seen he can still be a highly effective pitcher, he just isn’t someone the team can bank on for volume.
And it wasn’t just Sale either, injuries absolutely killed this team with a ton of games missed by him, Kike Hernandez, Trevor Story, Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Whitlock and others. If this team can get a little bit of luck with health next season then it’ll make a world of difference.
4.) Somehow STILL Finished Over the Luxury Tax
This is probably the most inexcusable part of the entire last place finish. If you want to clear up dead money and acquire some lottery ticket prospects in the meantime, fine. If your owner ties your hands because of luxury tax penalties so you can’t make any big money moves until the books are in order, then fine. But all of those moves are only tolerated by fans because of the promise that it’s building to something in the near future. To finish in last place, trade away key players, let key free agents walk, and STILL finish over the luxury tax that is the definition of insanity. Moves like eating JBJ’s salary just to scoop up a couple of prospects did not help, made only worse by Bradley playing so poorly that the team ultimately released him. Compare that to the guy we traded away for him in Hunter Renfroe having a career year (28 HR and counting) for a fraction of the price. Oof.
5.) Chaim Bloom’s Plan
In fairness, Bloom does seem to be caught between a rock and a hard place. He now runs a BIG market team and works for an owner who loves to be frugal and efficient and smarter than everyone else, yet is *notorious* for flip flopping on organizational philosophies. Remember the whole mantra about how the Red Sox don’t commit big deals to pitchers over 30? That quote got raked over the coals when the Sox finished in last place their first year without 30+ year old Jon Lester (who flourished for Theo Epstein’s Cubs), and the team immediately signed 30-year-old David Price to a 7-year $217M contract. So I get it that his boss may be moving the goal posts on him a bit, but we are now three years into the Chaim Bloom experience.
It is truly put up or shut up time for Chaim Bloom because I do not want to hear any more talk about his five year plan.
It’s been an up and down tenure for the new face of the Red Sox as the team was surprisingly successful last year reaching the ALCS with a team nobody expected a deep run from. Then came the regrettable Hunter Renfroe trade, the bad gambles on injured free agents, playing stiffs at first base for two years while not even bothering to try and resign Kyle Schwarber (46 HRs for the Phillies and headed for the World Series), the near mutiny in the clubhouse when they didn’t bring in any reinforcements this year, dumping Christian Vazquez, attaching top prospect Jay Groome instead of eating salary in the Eric Hosmer deal, the lowball offer to Xander Bogaerts followed by an entire season of drama and I can go on and on and on.
October 28th marks three years since the Red Sox hired Bloom so its time for the drastic organizational shift away from the Dave Dombrowski (also World Series bound with the Phillies) philosophy to start showing dividends.
Bonus No. 6) Dennis Eckersley Retiring
I could write 10,000 words about Eck and what an excellent broadcaster he is, but for now I’ll just say what a bummer it is to see him go. It was a surprising announcement from Eck mid-season that this year would be his last as he wants to move back to Cali to be closer to his grandkids and for that I can’t fault him. However, that doesn’t make it any less sad to see him go, which I think hit harder for Sox fans as they’ve now seen Eck, the late great Jerry Remy, and Don Orsillo leave the NESN booth in just the last few years. The Red Sox broadcast has a steep, uphill battle to find a crew that comes even close to the entertainment, energy, and chemistry that those three guys displayed on a nightly basis over the years with whoever was beside them. We’ll miss ya Eck, don’t be a stranger.
The trade deadline has come and gone and the Red Sox seemingly want to have their foot in all camps and be everyone to everyone, which is a superb way to run a business. Are they buyers? Are they sellers? After trading the team’s starting catcher and then picking up a new starting first baseman, Chaim Bloom says why choose just one?
An objective observer would have trouble faulting management for wanting to sell after seeing how dreadful the Sox have performed in recent weeks. After lighting the world on fire in June, the Sox had a catastrophic July dropping them into last place in the AL East. It wasn’t until the final day of the month that a Red Sox starting pitcher earned a win. That is not a typo. Not to mention, they still have yet to win a series against the AL East. Sitting at 53-53 and in last place, this doesn’t seem like a squad destined for October greatness.
On the other hand, this is the goddamn Boston Red Sox. This is a franchise that realistically shouldn’t ever be in the position of selling. It is laughable that a team with the resources of the Red Sox has so frequently hit rock bottom over the last 10+ years. They are 3 games out of the final wild card spot with 56 games left to play, there is zero excuse for a team with a $200M+ payroll to not at least try to make the playoffs. This isn’t the NBA where you have an outside shot at the top pick in the draft by missing the playoffs. Sure you aren’t going to trade away top prospects to bring in rental players to support a team you don’t believe in, but it is hard to fathom punting on the season.
Chaim Bloom argues the Red Sox are in just as good of a position to make the playoffs as they were last week, which isn’t exactly a confidence inspiring comment for a GM to make after a trade deadline.
Let’s recap what the Sox actually did over the last few days to reconstruct their roster.
Traded Christian Vazquez
There’s really no way to defend a major market team trading its starting catcher without any legitimate backup options or young player waiting in the wings. Now obviously the team wasn’t planning on resigning Vazquez so Bloom figured he would maximize the asset and get some prospects for him while he still could. It makes sense in a longer term view, but it hands down hurts this year’s team to trade away your starting catcher who’s having his best season in years. The Sox received two minor league prospects in return, but the move also had its team leader openly questioning the direction of the franchise.
Traded for Eric Hosmer
In a vacuum this is a good move, it legitimately makes the team better, but thats because the Boston Red Sox went the better part of two years without rostering an actual big league first baseman. I was starting to genuinely feel bad for Franchy Cordero after the three error game the other day so it will be nice to have a guy who actually has “1B” written on his trading card finally manning the position again.
It’s important to point out that the Sox only made this move because it fell into their lap though. They only made this move because they got Hosmer for literal pennies on the dollar. Why not make this move in May when it was clear Bobby Dalbec and co. were not cutting it at first base? Because then the move would have cost something. I heard Lou Merloni summarize it aptly saying Bloom is great at taking advantage of other team’s desperation (the Padres had to dump Hosmer after the Soto trade chaos), but has yet to really show a knack for preemptively identifying and targeting big league talent.
To top it off, rather than take on more of Hosmer’s contract to help the Padres shed salary and in return pick up higher rated prospects (as most big market teams do), instead the Sox opted to take on the bare minimum amount of Hosmer’s salary.
According to the Associated Press, the Red Sox owe Eric Hosmer:
If I were an accountant, that would have me running out of the tunnel like Tom Brady shouting obscenities. But I’m not, so I don’t really care that the Sox got a guy for cheap UNLESS they use that money to pay some of their own upcoming free agents. Now the trade off for taking on such little salary is that the Sox instead picked up a couple of lower level prospects AND had to attach their No. 11 ranked prospect in Jay Groome. That move really is the one that set me off. If you want to sell then fine go ahead and sell, but don’t half ass it.
Chaim Bloom can trade everyone on the team to acquire more and more and more lottery ticket prospects so he can continue to play Franchise Mode on his computer. But to then turn around and start dumping your own top prospects just to save money? That should make fans lose their minds. So now the Boston Red Sox, who seemingly want to rebuild the farm system with as many prospects as possible, are sending former first round picks out the door to save a few million dollars.
As Big Z so perfectly put it, “Classic Moneyball move by one of the richest teams in North America.”
Traded Jake Diekman for Reese McGuire
I cry no tears for Diekman, who was a high wire act in the truest sense of the term. He was Bloom’s highest price bullpen offseason addition though so that’s an L for Chaim. As for McGuire, the internet and talk radio has already shredded this guy to pieces for his, um, fondness for Dollar Store parking lots so I’ll just post my joke and move on.
Chaim, this is Reese McGuire. He is a catcher in the Top 10 in Defensive WAR and runners Caught Stealing. His only flaw is that he cannot legally be within 200 feet of a school. #RedSox | #DirtyWater | #MLBpic.twitter.com/CCLYb2MBue
The Sox added Pham for almost literally nothing as they gave the Reds the illustrious “player to be named later or cash considerations” in exchange. Pham has some pop with 11 home runs this year, but is only hitting .238 so not a massive upgrade. He is however the guy that punched Joc Pederson in the face over a fantasy football dispute so he definitely has a bit of an edge!
Released Jackie Bradley Jr.
I was honestly surprised to hear this news today because it seemed like the Sox were so smitten with his defense that JBJ would be penciled into the lineup until someone ripped the lineup card out of Alex Cora’s hands. Let us never forget the otherworldly performance Bradley had in the 2018 ALCS when he picked up MVP honors, but he was a streaky player who’s hot streaks were becoming shorter and further apart every day. He was batting .210 with a negative WAR so while he was a joy to watch in the outfield, a championship caliber team needs more out of an everyday outfielder.
So did this team get better? Did it get worse? Who knows, it kind of seems like a shell game of asset management at this point, but it’s hard to say winning this year was a priority of ownership. The Sox probably weren’t going to win the World Series this year, but nobody expected them to reach the ALCS last year either. My concern is on the direction of the franchise and the overall plan to make this team better. God help me if this team lets Xander Bogaerts walk and/or trades Rafael Devers because I can only handle the Tampa Bay Red Sox blueprint for so long.
If you gave him some truth serum and asked Chaim Bloom when he thinks the Red Sox will contend for a World Series, I imagine his answer would sound something like Cal from the 40 Year Old Virgin.
To be fair, if Bloom and his legion of prospects win a championship down the road then fine, but don’t just punt on this year because you have your eyes on four years from now. You run the Boston Red Sox, don’t be afraid to act like a big market bully once in a while.
After another cold, dark, and suspiciously long winter, this afternoon we get The Masters, game day dogs on the grill, and most importantly, Red Sox Opening Day. I wasn’t sure we’d get here after an extensive lockout, constant news of failed negotiations between the players and the owners, and rainouts delaying games further, but we made it guys. It’s baseball season.
After finishing the season 92-70 last year and making a surprise run to the ALCS expectations are high for this Red Sox team. With one of the best lineups in the game expectations should be high as the Sox look to build on last year’s deep postseason run. This season already has a melancholy vibe to it though because there could be some big changes after the season with JD Martinez, Kike Hernandez, and potentially Xander Bogaerts all hitting free agency. The farm system is back in the Top 10 and the Sox finally opened their wallets with the Trevor Story signing so the franchise is in a good position for the long haul, but it’s definitely win now time down on Jersey Street.
The Duct Tape Rotation
The 2022 pitching staff is a mixed bag that should get better when if everyone can get healthy at the same time, but as it currently sits the rotation has some question marks. The staff includes one legit starter in Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 in 2021) but he comes with a long history of injuries, one potential hidden gem in Nick Pivetta (9-8, 4.53) who’s looking to build off an eye opening postseason run (2.63 ERA, 14 K’s in 13.2 IP), a 25-year-old in Tanner Houck (1-5, 3.52) that the Sox kept the training wheels on a bit last year but shows a ton of potential, and then two old and possibly washed up vets in Michael Wacha, yes that Wacha from the 2013 World Series, (5.05, 6.62, 4.76 ERAs the last 3 seasons) and Rich Hill (7-8, 3.86) at 42-years-young is back in Boston to see how long he can survive throwing 88 mph fastballs. Gone is rotation mainstay Eduardo Rodriguez after the Red Sox deemed him expendable and to be honest E-Rod seemed like he was gone the minute Alex Cora publicly scolded him for celebrating too hard in the middle of an ALCS game. A rare miss for Cora.
Eduardo Rodriguez got an earful from Alex Cora after mocking Carlos Correa’s celebration. 😳
If it sounds like I’m missing someone, you’re right, I haven’t mentioned Chris Sale who somehow cracked a rib last month throwing a baseball. So I hate to pin my hopes on Chris Sale because while has the stuff to be the best pitcher in the game, he he has struggled mightily to stay healthy the last few years. I still blame the Sox for delaying Sale’s March 2020 Tommy John surgery by several months for no particular reason, which ended up costing Sale nearly two full years. After recently being placed on the 60 day IL, Sale is projected to return the first week of June so I’m cautiously optimistic, but when healthy the lefty has the stuff to carry the Sox down the stretch and into the playoffs.
Welcome to Boston, Trevor Story
I love this signing IF Story is indeed slated to be the second baseman of the future. I don’t however love the optics of the Red Sox signing a career shortstop the same exact year that their own franchise shortstop can opt out of his contract and become a free agent. At best it feels like hedging, at worst it feels like the Sox are preemptively moving on from their team’s de facto leader, homegrown All-Star, and 2x World Series champion.
Garrett Whitlock Will Be Key
For those who don’t know, the Red Sox essentially got Garrett Whitlock off the scrap heap, selecting him in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft off the Yankees roster. Coming off Tommy John surgery, Whitlock was nothing less than a revelation for the Sox last year going 8-4 with a 1.96 ERA and racking up 81 strikeouts in 73.1 IP. Like a child of divorce, Whitlock seems to be stuck between what his dad (Alex Cora) and his mom (Chaim Bloom) want him to be as he gets yo-yo’d back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen. It has a striking similarity to the Jonathan Papelbon situation way back in 2006 when Paps came into the league as a starter before getting shifted to the pen for the postseason and ultimately taking the closer reigns from Keith Foulke. Now, I think Whitlock should be a starter because he has all the tools and multiple legit pitches to become a top of the rotation guy. However, baseball as a whole has really devalued top tier starters as analytics have taken over the game and managers routinely pull starters after a couple of times through the batting order. “Openers” used to be something we all laughed at the Rays for sending out relievers to pitch a few innings to start a game instead of a traditional starter. Now you see it all the time. The workhorse ace of a pitching staff is an endangered species. There were only THREE players with more than 200 innings pitched last year in all of baseball!
So perhaps Whitlock has a higher objective value coming out of the pen as the team’s Rover, but I still would rather seem him as a starter. Then again, Papelbon went on to become the greatest closer in team history so what do I know. Let’s not forget that the team did jerk around guys like Daniel Bard who eventually fell apart and the Yankees did the same thing with Joba Chamberlain. I once saw Chamberlain start a game at Fenway where he struck out 11 guys before the Yankees move him back to the pen. Then again he was a dominant reliever and was the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera before also falling apart. So I guess my main point is let’s just make a decision and stick with it rather than hem and haw to the point that the team screws up another young pitcher.
Rafael Devers Poised for Another MVP Season
Contract extension talks have stalled between the Sox and Bogaerts and Devers so that’s been a bit of a downer heading into the season. Devers just turned 25 in October and posted a season of 38 HR, 113 RBI while hitting .279/.352/.538 last year. He led the Red Sox in HR, RBI, Runs, Hits, Total Bases, Slugging and OPS en route to his first All-Star selection and finishing 11th in MVP voting. No player has more extra base hits than Rafael Devers over the last three seasons. Get. The. Deal. Done.
“We are talking cheapies here. The big boys came through.” – Eck
Matt Barnes was an All-Star last season lest anyone forget after his second half ERA of 6.48 and ya know being left off the ALCS roster. It didn’t help that Barnes seemingly fell apart right around the time the Spider Tack story broke and was suddenly explicitly banned. Maybe it was just a mental thing and he needed a full winter away from the ballpark to reset, but I’m not exactly penciling Barnes in for 40 saves this year. Whitlock could step in and handle the role, but again with baseball overindexing in middle relief guys, the Sox may not want to pigeonhole Whitlock to 1-inning outings. Cora has gone out of his way to not name a closer, which is fine, but I don’t love a revolving door at the end of games.
“They don’t want to call it closer by committee so they’re not gonna use that term is because they know theres a negative connotation. The reason Cora hasn’t named a closer is because they’re not going to use one.” – Tony Mazz on 98.5
It seems like the Sox are just throwing arms against the wall to see what sticks and that could be a problem, but then again relievers are notoriously fickle. So the team will need to define some roles in the pen, but expect the Sox to be active in the reliever market if Barnes and co. don’t bounce back.
This is a Flawed But Dangerous Team
Vegas has the over/under set for the 2022 Red Sox at 85.5 after winning 92 last year. With a loaded lineup that will mash its way to a ton of wins on its own and a potentially sneaky good bullpen, the Sox should be a lock to hit the over. The rotation could be a disaster if there are any more injuries, but with Sale due back in June they should be good enough at the front end. The only thing that could hinder them is how the AL East has seemingly become the best division in baseball. Vegas has the Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays all projected to win more games than the Sox this season, which Boston is intimately aware of after all-time classic playoff battles against the Yankees and Rays just last fall. With all that being said, I like my chances with a lineup featuring Kike Hernandez, Rafael Devers, Xander Boagaerts, JD Martinez, Alex Verdugo, Trevor Story, and even Bobby Dalbec if he keeps up his second half surge from last season. I think this team will definitely need to add an outfield bat if they’re going to reach the World Series because I love former ALCS MVP Jackie Bradley’s defense, but the man did hit .163 in his lone season with the Brewers last year. Maybe that bat off the bench comes in the form of top prospect Triston Casas, but even then, the kid plays first base. So Chaim will likely need to find an OF bat at the deadline in the same vein as Steve Pearce if the Sox are to go the distance.
Media predictions are all over the place too so nobody knows what to expect from this team. The Ringer has the Sox as the 12th ranked team in baseball behind the Jays, Rays and Yankees, Felger has the Sox winning 95 games, and Chris Gasper has called the upcoming season a bridge year. Then again media predictions are just that, fugazi attempts at defining a team before the first pitch of Opening Day. A lot of people picked the Sox to finish a distant 4th in the division last year, but the team clicked and ended up winning 92 games en route to the ALCS.
With the addition of a healthy Chris Sale I have this team winning 95 games this year, which should be enough to get them into the new 12-team playoff format. Is this a World Series winning team? I’m not sold on that without some additions, but this should be a team that is threatening for the pennant.
Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox have finally called up 24-year-old outfield prospect Jarren Duran and is set to make his major league debut against the Yankees Thursday night. The reason I say “finally” is because Duran has been absolutely dominating at Triple-A Worcester hitting 15 HR with 32 RBIs and a .946 OPS in just 46 games. Not to mention 12 swiped bags.
Technically Duran is the Red Sox’ No. 3 prospect, but with guns like these I’m willing to make an exception on the word play.
Duran was a 2018 7th round draft pick out of Long Beach State University so he’s not exactly a can’t miss prospect. Although he is another standout graduate of the Cape Cod Baseball League so the sticker on my cooler remains highly prescient. But my goodness does Duran have some tools. The kid can also fly so expect plenty of Jacoby Ellsbury comparisons early on. Check out the scouting report on his speed in the breakdown below via Boston.com
MLB.com’s scouting profile on Duran lists his speed at a 70 on a scale from 20 to 80. He puts that speed to good use on the base paths.
“Duran’s best offensive tool is his plus-plus speed,” the profile reads, “which helps him routinely beat out grounders and makes him a dangerous basestealing threat, as evidenced by his 70 swipes in 199 games during his first two pro seasons.
SoxProspects.com rates Duran as having “true plus plus speed” and here’s what they had to say about his power potential:
Power:Plus raw power after 2020 swing adjustments. Increased strength and added loft in swing allow him the drive the ball to all fields, but especially to the pull side. Showed improved power at 2020 alternate training site, and quickly showed that his swing changes work in real games in 2021, significantly changing his in-game power projection. Prior to 2020 change, had below-average raw power with a swing not geared for over-the-fence power. Speed also leads to more doubles and triples on hard-hit line drives, inflating his power numbers somewhat. Above-average power potential.
Jarred Duran taking early BP at the Stadium. Last swing on this clip was 20 rows up in the bleachers. pic.twitter.com/Puk1qo3JJc
I think it’s safe to say the people are excited. It’s go time baby.
Give me all your Jarren Duran predictions, no matter how outlandish. I have him achieving the power of flight by the 6th inning of Saturday’s game. Possible Soul Stone acquisition by Sunday.
The #RedSox today traded OF Andrew Benintendi and cash considerations to the KC Royals, in exchange for OF Franchy Cordero & 2 players to be named later.
Additionally, the Red Sox received minor league RHP Josh Winckowski & a player to be named later from the New York Mets.
I know using “former top prospect” to describe a 26-year-old that just got dumped by his current team is a tale as old as time, but I’m pretty down on this move considering the return. Just a year after signing Andrew Benintendi to a relatively inexpensive 2-year $10M extension, the Sox decided to part ways with the former No. 7 overall pick. Granted, I have not been studying my Baseball Prospectus manual so I know nothing about the guys they got in return except that they are also underperforming castoffs from their previous teams.
In return for Benintendi the Red Sox received OF Franchy Cordero and pitcher Josh Winckowski, both of whom I’m not too familiar with. It kiiiind of seems like the Sox are just throwing shit against the wall though hoping they can catch lightning in a bottle with another team’s failed projects.
“I guess you never know, but the odds seem slim that the tools will ever come together. Maybe the Red Sox see something they believe they can fix, but the scouting reports on Cordero have always mentioned that he simply scores low in his natural baseball instincts.” – David Schoenfield, ESPN
“In fairness to the Red Sox, Winckowski sounds like he has a chance. And let me emphasize – a CHANCE. He won’t be 23 until June. He’s 6-foot-4 and 202 pounds. In 54 career minor-league games – 53 starts – he has a 3.35 ERA with 237 strikeouts and 86 walks in 263 innings. But he’s also been traded twice already…Cordero doesn’t sound like much of a baseball player. When I read his profile, the first name I thought of was Wily Mo Pena, a physically imposing power hitter whom the Red Sox acquired in 2006. He basically lasted a year here before they became the second team to give up on his “potential,” which is a dirty word in sports. It’s a euphemism for “underachiever.” There’s nothing worse than a great athlete who doesn’t have the skills to play baseball. And Cordero doesn’t feel like much of a ball player.“
Not to mention this deal happened one year to the day of the Mookie Betts trade. This franchise really should just teach a PR masterclass because there’s always drama surrounding every single move they make.
Maybe it’s elite foresight from Chaim Bloom and he’s seeing what nobody else sees…which is exactly why John Henry hired him. BUT, Benintendi is literally less than a full season removed from being a pretty good and promising young player. In fairness that was two years ago, but with a Covid shortened 2020 season shortened even further due to injuries + the 2019 season Benintendi is only 152 games removed from finishing 2018 hitting .290/.366/.465 with 16 HR, 41 doubles, and 21 Stolen Bases. You can’t tell me that guy just forgot how to play ball.
To make matters worse the Sox are even paying a little over $2M of Benintendi’s salary just for the Royals to take him. Making a little over $6 million this season, Benintendi would be arbitration eligible in 2022 and become a free agent in 2023. It would appear Bloom saw no future for Benny with the Sox so decided to get something in return while he still could.
If you’re feeling a bit, well, underwhelmed by this offseason then you my friend are not alone. When the biggest moves of the offseason are signing OF Hunter Renfroe to a 1-year $3M deal, Kike Hernandez (a nice utility player) to a 2-year $14M deal and RHP Garrett Richards (who is always hurt) to a one year $10M deal, fans have a right to be less than enthused. With Chris Sale out until at least mid-season while he recovers from Tommy John, the Sox have done almost nothing to improve the roster that finished with one of the worst records in team history last season.
Obviously the Red Sox are looking at 2021 as a bridge year while they try to get as far under the luxury tax as possible. Even Dustin Pedroia’s $13.75M AAV still counts against the luxury tax despite retiring so Bloom appears to be resetting the roster before hopefully jumping back into free agency next offseason. This is the kind of stuff that Theo Epstein used to preach, you can’t compete for a World Series and spend big in free agency, and trade prospects every year. It’s just not sustainable. So I understand that, but this franchise does feel a little rudderless. Especially for a franchise that changes its organizational philosophy every 2 years. I can take a down year or two if the team has a legitimate plan in place, but that blueprint remains to be seen if we’re being honest. At the start of next season the Sox will have their two best players in Xander Bogaerts entering his age-29 season and Rafael Devers entering his age-25 season so both guys will be in their prime. Now all Bloom has to do is build an entire roster of players around them in the next 15 months. No pressure.
Say what you want about Benintendi, but he still has the potential to be an All-Star and let us never forget him saving the ALCS for the Red Sox against Houston en route to the 2018 championship. Best of luck to ya in KC, Benny.
NBCSports – Per reports in the Wall Street Journal and Axios, Henry’s Fenway Sports Group — which includes not only the Red Sox, but Liverpool, Roush Racing, and stakes in other sports ventures — is negotiating to sell a stake of 20-25 percent to Redball Acquisition Corp., which Beane co-chairs. That portion of the club would then be taken public.
The shocking part is Beane’s reported role. Because he cannot maintain financial relationships with two MLB teams — he retains a small ownership stake in the A’s while continuing to oversee their baseball operations — he’d have to leave Oakland. But his plan isn’t to join Boston’s front office. Instead, he would reportedly help marshal FSG’s ventures in European soccer, where he’s already a minority owner of a Dutch team.
I’ll be honest, this is not how I expected John Henry to finally get his guy, but it seems like Billy Beane may be finally coming to work at Fenway…Sports Group. You can read the financial details at Axios, which help explain the nature of the deal better, but essentially Beane’s company Redball Acquisition is looking to buy a stake in FSG so he would be more of a partner or a chairman rather than an employee of Henry’s. Beane has been quietly building a sports empire since Michael Lewis profiled him and the A’s in the era defining Moneyball. Beane currently chairs the Redball company, has an ownership stake in the A’s along with his role running baseball ops, and even bought a Dutch soccer team so he’s not exactly looking to make a lateral move to be the GM of the Red Sox.
John Henry has lusted after Billy Beane for nearly 20 years. So much so that there was an entire scene devoted to it in the Moneyball movie where Henry is trying to lure him away from Oakland to join the Red Sox and become the highest paid GM in the league.
“Anybody who’s not tearing their team down right now and rebuilding it using your model? They’re dinosaurs.”
Now this could be disheartening to Red Sox fans, especially those of us who read Moneyball and have always daydreamed of Beane using his model and John Henry’s money to turn the Sox into the consistent behemoth they could be. But, it seems like that ship has sailed as Beane has his sights set on bigger fish. As does John Henry who, at least in the court of public opinion, seems to be drifting further and further from the Sox being his top priority. In case you’ve lost track, Henry now owns the Red Sox, Liverpool, Roush Fenway Racing, and The Boston Globe. Whether that has any real tangible effect on the day to day success of the Sox is debatable, but for a city as provincial as Boston this could actually anger a lot of fans.
What do you mean you’re bringing in the most famous brain in baseball to manage your SOCCAH TEAM??
He’s looking for Billy Beane to unleash Moneyball on the English Premier League and build Liverpool into a juggernaut.
I get it. John Henry is a guy who literally made his fortune by understanding market inequities in finance and trading “with the explicit intention of precluding not only human emotion, but also any subjective evaluation of factors outside of price behavior.” Sound familiar? He buys a couple of baseball teams (Henry owned the Marlins from 99-02) and then in the early 2000s emerges Billy Beane, a baseball GM that unlike anyone before him starts using data, analytics, and economics to build a baseball team with an AJ Wright level budget. Of course Henry was smitten. This was like a kindred spirit for him in the game of baseball. So he’s tried to lure Beane away for years with gigantic contracts, but Beane always opted to stay in Oakland. Henry even tried to snag Beane once again in 2019 before they hired Chaim Bloom.
Billy Beane has been John Henry’s white whale for nearly 20 years.
CBS Boston – Andrew Benintendi’s 2020 season has come to an end. The Red Sox transferred the injured outfielder to the 45-day injured list, and manager Ron Roenicke said the team is shutting Benintendi down for the rest of the shortened season.
This nightmare of a season continues for the Red Sox. Andrew Benintendi, who was having a disastrous year at the plate and had missed the last month due to a ribcage injury, is now out for the rest of the season. Just a reminder that this injury happened when Benintendi literally fell down running the bases on August 11th.
Well falling down running the bases is not gonna help Benintendi’s case these days. #RedSox
The shutdown was alluded to by Ron Roenicke last week so it doesn’t come as a total surprise. 2020 was simply a lost season for Benintendi, who for whatever reason just could never get it going. He ends the year with just four hits and a .103 batting average in 14 games. The ultimate sign that things were not turning around was when Roenicke dropped him in the order at the end of July behind career .219 hitter Kevin Plawecki.
Also, I’ll just call Old Takes Exposed on myself right now for this scorching hot take.
If, like me, you fully expect a bounce back season from Benintendi then $10M for two years is a steal. #RedSoxhttps://t.co/hwak0ZCqeF
But lets not throw the kid on the scrap heap quite yet either. He’s the former No. 1 prospect in all of baseball and he just turned 26-years-old. This is a guy that hit 36 home runs and stole 41 bases in his first two seasons. Oh and he can also make big time season saving plays like this:
Andrew Benintendi's diving catch to end Game 4 of the ALCS was named the 2018 Associated Press Play of the Year.
I hope Chaim Bloom agrees with me. This Red Sox team is in full blown rebuild mode as we’ve seen Bloom trade players left and right for any possible building blocks for the next great Red Sox team. At just 26-years-old though Benintendi will only be coming into his prime when the Sox do ultimately turn things around. Not to mention after a down season in 2019 and a .104 average in 2020 his stock is at an all-time low. I’m not a financial analyst, but I’m pretty sure you want to buy low and sell high, not the other way around.
So my advice to Benny is to take some time off to get healthy, get your head right, get your swing back, and put some Counting Crows on repeat because there’s reason to believe, maybe this year will be better than the last.
The MLB trade deadline is today at 4 pm and the last place Red Sox are in full blown sell mode. I wrote last week about how this team doesn’t need to completely blow it up and trade cornerstones like Xander Boagerts, but it’s hard to predict what the team will do since it’s Chaim Bloom’s first deadline as the guy in charge. Lets take a look at what they’ve already done, what could be in the works, and what Sox fans might actually have to look forward to.
Brandon Workman and Heath HembreeTraded to the Phillies
Crowned the Red Sox closer heading into the season, the team just never really needed Workman because they were so bad there were rarely many save opportunities. Usually the team was getting blown out long before the final frame so Workman only had seven appearances before getting dealt. Both players were in contract years so the deal makes sense for a basement team. In return the Red Sox received 27-year-old RHP Nick Pivetta and 23-year-old RHP Connor Seabold.
Pivetta is a 6’5″ 220 pound former 4th round draft pick of the Nationals, who actually traded Pivetta to the Phillies in 2015 for Jonathan Papelbon. Pivetta was a starter for the Phillies and flashed at times with his “front of the rotation potential,” but was pretty up and down before getting relegated to the bullpen so he’s a buy low candidate that the Sox are smart to take the chance on.
Seabold has never pitched higher than AA, but had a 2.25 ERA last season in the Eastern League and was a 3rd round pick for the Phillies in 2017 so this is a solid prospect to get back.
Mitch Moreland Traded to the Padres
Moreland was an excellent role player for the Red Sox over the last 2+ seasons, making his lone All-Star team in 2018 as the Sox battered everyone en route to a World Series title (including a clutch pinch hit 3 run HR in Game 4). He was having an even better season this year hitting .328 with 8 home runs and 21 RBIs in just 22 games. Although he was limited by injuries last year, Moreland was a legit power bat for the Sox hitting 15 home runs in 2018 and then 19 in 2019 even though he had 124 less plate appearances. So its a bummer to see him go, but he was essentially a victim of his own success while the Sox transitioned to a rebuild.
In return for Moreland the Sox received outfielder Jeisson Rosario and infielder Hudson Potts. Potts is a 21-year-old 3B and was actually the 24th overall pick just four years ago so there is a pedigree there. Rosario is a 20-year-old outfielder that hasn’t played above A ball yet so this guy is a ways off from the big leagues. You can read the scouting reports of the two players via MassLive, but keep in mind Potts and Rosario were just the Padre’s No. 17 and No. 28 ranked prospects according to Baseball America.
The Moreland trade did however clear the way for Bobby Dalbec, the Red Sox’ No. 3 ranked prospect according to MLB.com, who hit a dinger in his major league debut.
On MLB Network, @Ken_Rosenthal says the Red Sox are "entertaining anything and everything"… specifically talking about Christian Vazquez and the Mets' interest.
I think this would be a mistake because he is a player on a cheap contract at a premium position with elite defense and pretty good power. Although he is a bit older than I realized at 30-years-old, but he’s an energy guy that I think the Sox would be wise to keep around.
Trade Rumors Around Xander, JD Martinez, Jackie Bradley Jr, Andrew Benintendi, Nathan Eovaldi
I wrote about this the other day and I think Bogaerts should be untouchable, but you never know. The other guys I would listen to offers on, but the hottest Benintendi rumors were focused on a deal with Cleveland for Mike Clevinger, who they just traded to San Diego. So maybe none of these guys get dealt, but we’ll see today.
Joey B also pointed out the Sox are also exploring a potential trade/salary dump of Eovaldi.
Sources: In a money swap deal, Rangers have discussed Odor for Nathan Eovaldi. Could involve Rangers taking on money extra money. Could involve a prospect going to Boston. Could go nowhere.
This is about the only thing for Red Sox fans to be excited about these days. With the 3rd worst record in ALL of baseball and just 2 games better than the Pirates for the worst record, the Sox are in play for potentially the No. 1 overall pick next year. Due to a myriad of reasons the Sox could potentially finish with the worst record and still not get the top pick, which would be the most 2020 thing ever, but it’s fun to daydream about the most likely No. 1 overall pick pitching at Fenway, Vanderbilt flamethrower Kumar Rocker.
Luxury Tax Reset Day
Finally and probably the most exciting thing to come out of this shit season is that by getting through today the Red Sox officially (kinda/sort) have their luxury tax penalties reset. This means the Sox have had to dump Mookie Betts, David Price and endure this disastrous season, but by doing so have climbed out of the hell zone that because of gigantic tax penalties would have kept John Henry from making any big moves for YEARS.
Once the trade deadline passes at 4 p.m., MLB's luxury tax rates will reset for 2021 based on what teams spend in 2020. So: technically the luxury tax rates *don't* reset today, but the *possibility* of rates resetting based on 2020 luxury tax payroll will exist.
The 300s 