Fact #1: The Bucks (31.5) and Pelicans (29.8) are 1st and 6th, respectively in first quarter point averages this season.
Sixth Pick: Jrue Holiday O16.5 pts vs NOP (-103)
Logic: Holiday is coming off his worst shooting performance of the season against Toronto (2-14), but tonight is his first regular season return to New Orleans, who traded him this past off-season. I’m here for the revenge game narrative.
Seventh Pick: Marvin Bagley III O13.5 pts vs TOR (-110)
Fact #1: The Raptors are allowing 23 PPG to the PF position over their last seven games.
Fact #2: Bagley has eclipsed 14 points in three of his last five and put up 15 against the Raptors in their first meeting back on the 8th.
Eighth Pick: James Harden O27.5 pts vs OKC (-106)
Fact #1: You have to remind your past that you’re better since you left them.
Fact #2: Durant is out tonight.
Fact #3: Harden has 28+ in three of his seven games since joining Brooklyn.
Recap: Last Thursday looked oh, so promising until Malcolm Brogdon decided to hit his over as the game-winning 3-pter in OT against the Magic.
First Pick: Terry Rozier O17.5 pts vs IND (-120)
Fact #1: The Pacers are allowing an average of 25 PPG to the two-guard position over their last seven games.
Fact #2: Rozier has eclipsed 18 pts in four of his last six.
Second Pick: Jerami Grant O23.5 pts vs CLE (-110)
Fact #1: Grant went for 28 the first time these teams played and has eclipsed 24 pts in four of his last six.
Fact #2: The Cavs are allowing 28.5 PPG to the small forward position — the 2nd-most by any team — over their last seven games.
Third Pick: Evan Fournier O17.5 pts vs SAC (-134)
Fact #1: Fournier has eclipsed 18 points in all four games since returning from injury.
Fact #2: The Kings are allowing 27 PPG to the two-guard position over their last seven contests.
Obligatory homer picks incoming…
Fourth Pick: Kyrie Irving O24.5 pts vs ATL (-118)
Fact #1: Irving has hit this number in three of four games since Harden’s arrival
Fact #2: The Hawks allow an average of 25 PPG to the PG position over their last seven.
Fifth Pick: James Harden O9.5 assists vs ATL (+107)
Fact #1: Harden has recorded double-digit assists in five of six games since joining Brooklyn and this game should be very high-paced as the previous two matchups were.
Sixth Pick: Nets -5.5 vs ATL (-110)
Fact #1: The Nets are catching the Hawks in their third-game-in-four-nights and they struggled to get past a Kawhi and PG13-less Clippers team last night.
Seventh Pick: Bucks -2.5 1st quarter vs TOR (-108)
Fact #1: The Bucks are an NBA-best 12-4 against the 1st quarter spread this season. Yes, Toronto is 11-6, but they will be with OG Anunoby, while Siakam is a game-time decision.
Recap: Friendly reminder to you all + self: make sure to see if the player you pick is starting before selecting him for two props (i.e. Joe Harris).
First Pick: Lauri Markkanen O17.5 pts vs CHA (-125)
Fact #1: Markkanen has eclipsed 18+ points in two straight.
Fact #2: The Hornets are allowing an average of 24 PPG to the SF position over their last seven games.
Second Pick: Bulls 1st Quarter ML vs CHA (+105)
Fact #1: Due to a postponed game against Washington on Wednesday, the Hornets have had the past five days off, so I’d expect the tiniest bit of rust to be shaken off through the first 12 minutes.
Fact #2: The Bulls are 9-5 ATS in the 1st quarter this season.
Third and Fourth Picks: Mason Plumlee O8.5 pts (-110) and O7.5 rbs (-122) vs HOU
Fact #1: Christian Wood is out tonight. For you “casuals” out there like Shaq, that means there are a lot of rebounds up for grabs tonight.
Fact #2: With PJ Tucker playing the 5, I have to imagine he draws Plumlee and Blake is matched with Boogie Cousins on both sides. That’s a 5-6 inch advantage for Plums.
Fact #3: Plumlee has eclipsed 9+ points in three straight and has 8+ boards in three of his last five.
Fifth Pick: Malcolm Brogdon U22.5 pts vs ORL (+105)
Fact #1: Brogdon has yet to string together consecutive games over 23 points — that’s literally the logic behind this pick.
Sixth Pick: Kyrie Irving O26.5 pts vs CLE (-117)
Fact #1: Collin Sexton got the best of Irving, so it’s only fair for Kyrie to return the favor. Irving returned with 37 points on Wednesday and no Durant should mean he could get at least 30 this season.
Seventh Pick: James Harden O28.5 pts vs CLE (-110)
Fact #1: Harden’s point totals in three games with BRK are 32, 34 and 21. The 21 came with Durant on the floor. With him out tonight, that’s a lot of shots for him and Kyrie to have in their quest for 30 each.
Recap: The Bucks were leading by 5 with 2:20 left in the first and then surrendered an 11-0 run by the Heat to close the quarter. Elsewhere, Durant did everything against the Hawks, except cook three times from behind the arc.
First Pick: Cavs +2 1st Quarter vs IND(-109) – Loser
Fact #1: The Pacers have yet to hold a lead entering the 2nd quarter in this young season and are 0-4 ATS in the 1st quarter thus far
Fact #2: The Cavs are 3-1 ATS in the first quarter thus far
Second Pick: Darius Garland O14.5 pts vs IND(-121) – winner
Fact #1: Garland has posted 15+ points in three of four games this season
Fact #2: The Pacers are allowing an average of 28.5 points to the 2-guard position through 4 games
Third Pick: Pascal Siakam O19.5 pts vs NYK (-110)
Fact #1: I’m not stopping this “Skilled Big Man Point Total Over vs NYK” narrative until it goes ice cold. I played Drummond on my own the other night, but felt shaky about it blog wise and it didn’t hit because he didn’t get the shot attempts. So it’s like it never happened in our world.
Fact #2: Siakim dominated this matchup a season ago, posting point totals of 23 and 31 points, respectively.
Fact #3: Siakim has eclipsed 20+ points in two of three games thus far and the Knicks allow an average of 25.6 points to the PF position.
Fourth Pick:5-Pt Teaser of Thunder +10.5/Suns +9 (+107)
Logic: The Thunder have been playing close games to start, so the points are just for comfort here against a Pelicans team off to a 2-2 start. On the other side, the Suns played the Jazz well in two meetings last season + aside from a thrashing of the Blazers to open the season, teams have kept it close with Utah out the gate
Tuesday Recap: Kawhi needed 26 shots to reach 26 points and we lost by the hook. On the East Coast, the Nets played “too well” and it forced Joe Harris to get rest for most of the second half. Mind you he had 6 points after the first quarter and finished with 10 — a bucket shy of his over.
I just want to preface these picks with a quick mention that I had amazing reasons to play Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s O22.5 points tonight against the Rockets, including an excuse to use a “Hamilton” gif and the Rockets ruined this opportunity.
First Pick: Domantas Sabonis O18.5 Pts (-121) vs NYK
Fact #1: Sabonis faced the Knicks 3x last season totaling 19, 25 and 24 points respectively.
Fact #2: The Knicks’ front court is returning both Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson, which are matchups that Sabonis took advantage of last season.
Second Pick: Rudy Gobert O13.5 Pts (-117) vs POR
Fact #1: In three meeting last season, Gobert totaled 16, 6 and 16 respectively.
Fact #2: Subtract: Hassan Whiteside (Sac-Town)… Add: Enes Kanter back in Portland and you have a recipe for success
Fact #3: Jusuf Nurkić will reportedly be a minutes restriction (20), which means more Kanter, which means Gobert should get easy looks at the rim.
Despite losing to the Magic, the Celtics have backed their way into the 4 seed thanks to a loss by the Pacers last night.
I know I’ve been slacking on the Celtics content lately, but I have my reasons. Firstly, there really hasn’t been much to comment on over the last two weeks. They’ve played pretty much the way I’ve expected: some stupid, disappointing losses mixed in with solid wins. Secondly, it has been harder for me to watch games. As you’d expect for someone living on the VA-DC line, the Celtics don’t get a lot of airtime at the bar, even when the hometown team is a red hot piece of trash that just fired their GM. Lastly, and this is the bigger reason why I haven’t been writing much, I’ve done a lot of drinking since I moved to Virginia.
Maybe I’m just out of the loop because I’m from Massachusetts, but they have real happy hours down here. They’re amazing and probably my favorite thing in the world right now (unless my wife is reading this). From at least 5-7 at just about every bar, and with extended hours at a lot of them, you can get seriously discounted drinks and small plates in half the city. It’s incredible. Mass has a rip off happy hour where you get $1 off of nachos or some shit you can make at your house, but this shit is legit. And rest assured I’ve been taking full advantage of it.
As for the Celtics, although they had a 4-game losing streak in the middle of March, including a pathetic showing against the Hornets in Charlotte, they were able to come away with wins in the two most important games down the stretch: a home and away against the Pacers that has left me 100% sure we will make it to the second round. Although the game at the Garden was a close one, this last win in Indy without Brown and Morris proved that we are a legit force. With multiple games against the Pacers and a home-and-away mini-series against the Heat, the Celtics have actually had a little taste of the playoff format already. Al Horford said having games like this were good practice for the playoffs, and I’m in full agreement.
This guy is going to be an X-factor in the playoffs.
The biggest factor in getting this team playoff ready for me is moving Morris to the bench and replacing him with All of Australia. Baynes brings toughness in the paint and relegates more scoring the to second unit, two things that were much needed. Playoff basketball is very different than regular season basketball, and something the Celtics have lacked since the days of KP43 is a force in the paint. Baynes, in the two games against the Pacers, put up 13 and 13 at home at 11 and 11 on the road with a few blocks mixed in. He’s also done it without fouling, something isn’t always able to avoid.
Consistent scoring from Hayward is the key to a deep playoff run.
Another great sign in the blowout the other night was the perfect game (9-9 from the field, 3-3 from the line) from Gordon Hayward. This was the best such performance since Kevin McHale had 25 in a perfect game back in 1986. It was also the first time this season Gordon put up 20+ in consecutive games, pushing the Celtics to 6-0 when he hits that scoring mark. He’s been more physical and aggressive every game, and I think he’s really starting to show that confidence that was missing for the first several months of the season. I mean shit, he played 38 minutes last night. He may not have lit up the scoreboard, but he was very efficient. The more consistent he can be, the deeper we’ll go in the playoffs. If Gordon and Baynes play at a high level, and Kyrie, Brown and Al continue to play the way they have been, that will open up the floor for everyone else. Tatum looked to be back on track against Indy as well, leading the team in minutes and scoring.
— Celtics on NBC Sports Boston (@NBCSCeltics) April 8, 2019
Health will be a concern for sure, especially after last night. However, I don’t expect the shin contusion Tatum suffered to be all that serious. We’ll see about the hip injury to Marcus Smart, but he’s a tough bastard that will fight through it. I would expect Tatum, Smart and Irving at the very least to be out for tomorrow’s matchup against the Wizards, but only for a little extra rest. The only disappointing part about the rest is I will be at the game tomorrow rooting on….idk, Yabu I guess? I really don’t expect many people to play, and wouldn’t be surprised if those three I named aren’t the only ones missing time. Oh well. If all of the pieces fall where they should, this team can be the title contender that we all thought they’d be at the start of the season. I can’t wait to watch what they can do and find my hopes rising every day for this team.
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The 300s 