Tag: Jacoby Ellsbury

Red Sox Call Up Top Prospect Jarren Duran

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Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox have finally called up 24-year-old outfield prospect Jarren Duran and is set to make his major league debut against the Yankees Thursday night. The reason I say “finally” is because Duran has been absolutely dominating at Triple-A Worcester hitting 15 HR with 32 RBIs and a .946 OPS in just 46 games. Not to mention 12 swiped bags.

Technically Duran is the Red Sox’ No. 3 prospect, but with guns like these I’m willing to make an exception on the word play.

Duran was a 2018 7th round draft pick out of Long Beach State University so he’s not exactly a can’t miss prospect. Although he is another standout graduate of the Cape Cod Baseball League so the sticker on my cooler remains highly prescient. But my goodness does Duran have some tools. The kid can also fly so expect plenty of Jacoby Ellsbury comparisons early on. Check out the scouting report on his speed in the breakdown below via Boston.com

MLB.com’s scouting profile on Duran lists his speed at a 70 on a scale from 20 to 80. He puts that speed to good use on the base paths.

“Duran’s best offensive tool is his plus-plus speed,” the profile reads, “which helps him routinely beat out grounders and makes him a dangerous basestealing threat, as evidenced by his 70 swipes in 199 games during his first two pro seasons.

SoxProspects.com rates Duran as having “true plus plus speed” and here’s what they had to say about his power potential:

Power: Plus raw power after 2020 swing adjustments. Increased strength and added loft in swing allow him the drive the ball to all fields, but especially to the pull side. Showed improved power at 2020 alternate training site, and quickly showed that his swing changes work in real games in 2021, significantly changing his in-game power projection. Prior to 2020 change, had below-average raw power with a swing not geared for over-the-fence power. Speed also leads to more doubles and triples on hard-hit line drives, inflating his power numbers somewhat. Above-average power potential.

I think it’s safe to say the people are excited. It’s go time baby.

If the Red Sox Trade Xander Bogaerts, We Riot

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There have been more and more rumors circulating that the Red Sox are at least entertaining the idea of trading their best all around player. In the midst of their worst season in decades, the Sox are looking for any and all avenues to rebuild and reload. This ain’t it. 

If the Red Sox punt on this season I’m ok with that because I understand the legitimate need for a bridge year every now and then. It’s something Theo Epstein was adamant about in “Feeding the Monster.” You can’t be good every single year. Even the Yankees adopted this soft reset approach over the past few years to extraordinary (regular season) results. You need to take a step back and reload every once in a while otherwise you’re going to trade all your assets and overextend yourself on overpriced free agents and then you’ll have to do a hard reset. Kind of like what they’re staring at right now.

You saw the full value of the bridge year in 2006 when the Sox were less than two years removed from a World Series title but were coming off getting swept in the 2005 ALDS (thanks Tony Graffanino). Despite winning 95 games in ’05, the Sox recognized they were further away from winning a title than their record reflected. So rather than just double down on an aging core they took a step back and acquired some young talent like Coco Crisp and some veteran placeholders like Mark Loretta until the next wave of prospects like Dustin Pedroia (2007 Rookie of the Year), Kevin Youkilis, Jonathan Papelbon, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Clay Buchholz were ready to truly flourish and/or take over full time. It paid off. In 2007 the Sox recognized they were ready to compete again with a combination of their veteran core (Manny, Ortiz, Varitek, Schilling, Nixon), the aforementioned infusion of young (cheap) talent, and some new acquisitions. So they went all out ahead of the 2007 season and signed JD Drew to a (at the time) massive 5 year $70 million deal as well as Daisuke Matsuzaka to a 6 year $51 million deal (plus the $51 million posting fee). The result? The Sox were the wire to wire best team in baseball winning 96 games and the AL East en route to their second title in 4 years. Yes, the Sox did trade one of their top prospects in Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell before the 2006 season, but Beckett was only 26 at the time and was the anchor of their rotation when the team went for it all in 2007.

The Red Sox have the opportunity to do the same thing here, but if they elect to trade Xander Bogaerts they’re not just punting on a season; they’re removing the core of their rebuild. Why trade a 27-year-old shortstop who just re-signed on a team friendly deal (6 years, $120M) through 2025 and finished 5th in MVP voting last year?

Why trade a guy that you scouted, signed at the age of 16, developed into a player that is just now hitting his prime, is a 2x All-Star, is a 3x Silver Slugger, and became a vital piece of two World Series titles? Yes Bogaerts has a full no-trade clause kick in after the deadline this year, but these are typically the kind of guys you want to build around.  

This is not the same as Mookie Betts. Mookie Betts wanted a contract that quite literally was 3x the size of what Bogaerts re-signed for last spring. Mookie was in a walk year and was noncommital about even wanting to be in Boston, whereas Xander re-signed early. The irony is that despite Mookie’s career WAR doubling that of Bogaerts, you’d probably get a better return for Xander because he has 4+ seasons left on his contract. Doesn’t mean you should do it though. 

I am a full blown prospect fanatic so while it obviously paid off in 2018 I never loved Dave Dombrowski’s M.O. of ripping apart the farm system. So I understand the value of Bogaerts and the return the team could get, but if you trade him you basically are putting all your chips into the middle of the table and banking on TBD prospects, Rafael Devers, and Alex Verdugo. Not something I want to bet the next 5-10 years of the Red Sox on. 

Obviously Boston’s farm system is not ripe with future All-Stars like the ’06 team was, but thats the best part about currently being on pace for the worst winning percentage in team history; you are in play for the No. 1 overall pick. The Red Sox have never had the first overall pick in the history of the MLB draft. That’s value right there. Combine that with some smaller deals like you’re seeing with Workman and Hembree getting dealt and potentially trading guys like JD Martinez who I love, but is 33-years-old and may be the only valuable asset you have. There’s also Andrew Benintendi who I would have thought unthinkable to trade at the start of last season, but he has seemingly taken a plummet in his development the last two seasons. If the rumors are true and the Sox could get a young, promising starter like Mike Clevinger or Zach Plesac, I’d strongly consider it. 

It’s time for Chaim Bloom to make the smart, unheralded moves that the team brought him here to do. Blowing it up and trading a player that is essentially your captain is not the way to go. Don’t forget, the Sox also have Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale returning to the mound next year. So use the Theo blueprint; take the bridge year, but don’t blow up the damn bridge.

Red Sox Trade Former MVP Mookie Betts to the Dodgers. Lets Break It Down

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ESPN – The Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers have agreed to a blockbuster deal that will send former MVP Mookie Betts and left-hander David Price to Los Angeles for a package that includes outfielder Alex Verdugo, sources tell ESPN.

The trade includes a third team, the Minnesota Twins, with the Dodgers sending starter Kenta Maeda to Minnesota, which in turn will ship hard-throwing pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol to Boston, sources said, confirming a report by The Athletic.

Verdugo, 23, hit .294/.342/.475 with a 2.2 WAR in 377 plate appearances for the Dodgers last season. He took over in center field when A.J. Pollock was out. Verdugo didn’t play after Aug. 4 because of a back injury he re-aggravated while on a rehab assignment in September.

He is excellent against left-handed pitching and is under team control through the 2024 season. He will make the MLB minimum of $563,500 in 2020. He’s also a member of the Mexican national team.

Graterol, a hard-throwing, 21-year-old right-hander, pitched 9⅔ innings last season in the majors, going 1-1 with a 4.66 ERA. In the minors last season, the Venezuelan was 7-0 with a 1.92 ERA across three levels. He was rated the No. 83 overall prospect for 2020 by MLB pipeline.

In the words of Red Sox owner John Henry, “It’s not ideal.”

It is an absolute bummer to trade a dynamic, homegrown, and MVP level talent. Theres no other way to put it. A gross mismanagement of assets if you will, but a situation the Red Sox put themselves in. Mookie Betts seemed like a great teammate, a good dude off the field, and was fun as hell to watch, but he is a businessman. Thats not meant to be a knock because everyone should look to get paid what they think they’re worth, but that meant the Sox were never going to get a hometown discount, let alone sign him before he hit Free Agency. Lou Merloni told a story on NBC Sports last night about how Mookie’s been very consistent over the years on how he approaches these situations. Merloni brought up how the Sox offered Mookie a signing bonus of $300K out of high school, but he counter offered with $750K and threatened to go to college if the Sox didn’t meet his number, which of course they did to sign their 5th round pick. My point is the Red Sox saw the writing on the wall, had a value in their minds of what Mookie was worth and realized it probably wasn’t going to be what he figured to make on the open market next season so they chose to (barely) get ahead of it and recoup some assets.

Maybe if the Sox managed their assets a little better they could have not worried about paying top dollar to re-sign Mookie Betts next offseason. Drunken sailor deals given out to David Price, Nathan Eovaldi, and Chris Sale over the years put them in a tight spot financially. You can’t pay everybody. Or the team could have traded him last year to get a bigger return. However, Mookie was never going to sign before hitting free agency unless the Sox offered him $500 million so lets not pretend otherwise.

Oh, and let us never forget *when* the news of this trade actually broke.

The Return

Not great! This is where I do have a problem with the deal. I am an unabashed “Prospects Guy,” much to the chagrin of Big Z. My stance has always been I am OK trading Mookie Betts if it meant restocking the depleted farm system, which the Red Sox did not do here. They got one young major league outfielder and one pitching prospect. Not exactly a haul for arguably the second best player in the game.

The main piece of the deal is Alex Verdugo, who had a 3.1 WAR in 106 games at 23-years-old and will be under team control for the next five seasons. Not terrible. To be fair, prior to last season Verdugo was the Dodgers’ top prospect.

“One of the best pure hitting prospects in baseball, Verdugo recognizes pitches and controls the strike zone better than most players his age. He uses the whole field, repeatedly barreling balls with a quick left-handed stroke geared for line drives. Though he homered just seven times in 132 games last season, his hitting ability, bat speed and strength should translate into average power if he adds some loft to his swing.

As good as he is in the batter’s box, Verdugo’s best tool actually is his plus-plus arm. Despite average speed, he has spent much of his pro career in center field, where his instincts help him get the job done. Scouts are split on whether he can handle center on a daily basis in the Majors, but no one doubts that his arm would play in right.”

Then there’s also this, which I would like to chalk up to just a young guy being a young guy, but Boston fans will have zero patience for that as the centerpiece of a Mookie Betts deal.

The Red Sox also received the No. 83 ranked prospect in baseball from Minesota with pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol, who’s *ceiling* is a No. 2-3 starter according to baseball guys like Sean McAdam.

The realistic hope is that Graterol turns into a young, cheap closer for the Sox. Boston absolutely needs a young flamethrower in the pen, but it seems like a player of that caliber could have come much cheaper. Graterol will be under team control until 2026.

Oh and the Sox will also be paying HALF of David Price’s remaining contract for him to play elsewhere for the next three years! Good grief.

The Red Sox screwed this up by not having a long term plan, which they haven’t had since Theo Epstein left town. They change organizational philosophies at the drop of a hat, which leaves you with these gigantic problems down the line.

Also, can someone make sure John Henry never gets in front of a microphone again? He hamstrung Chaim Bloom from Day 1 by announcing to the rest of the league that the Sox were looking to get under the luxury tax so every team in baseball knew the Sox HAD to trade Mookie. Add in the fact they were trying to shed Price’s contract too and the Dodgers were one of the only teams in the league that could make a deal work, and the Dodgers knew it.

Get your “It’s Not Ideal” shirts now!

The Contract

I don’t feel comfortable giving any player in the league a 12 year $400+ million contract, let alone a 5’9″ guy. If his power slips at all, that contract will be an absolute albatross, making Jacoby Ellsbury look like a bargain. Granted on those mega contracts you’re paying for the front half and hoping for the best in the second half, but tell that to the teams paying Ellsbury, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and Robinson Cano just to name a few recent examples.

“Stop Rooting for Rich Guys to Save Money.”

Okay, this is one I need to address because I could not care less what John Henry’s ROI is on the Red Sox so I’m not rooting for one of the most valuable franchises in the world to save money. However, I am also an adult and realize the situation the team was in. Every business has a budget and yes the Sox could absolutely “afford” Mookie Betts, but by doing so they would blow through their budget, not to mention the landfall of luxury tax penalties they would have to bear for being a repeat offender. I’m talking fines, lost draft picks, international signing money etc. etc. You would be strapping your team by overreaching on one contract. Not an efficient way to run a business. And thats if Mookie plays at an MVP level for the next 5-12 years, which he won’t.

Looking Ahead

So by making the impossible decision to trade a home grown superstar player the Sox have freed up a ton of money AND gotten ride of that pill David Price. This is what Theo and his disciples fetishized as a “bridge year.” Take a step back in order to take two steps forward rather than dumping more money into the problem, which is exactly what got them into this situation in the first place.

You could say I’m a bit more optimistic, or at least pragmatic, than most of what I’m seeing on Twitter today, but make no mistake: the Red Sox just punted on the 2020 season. Ownership could have kept Mookie and made one last run at it this year even if they knew he wasn’t going to resign, but maybe they saw the writing on the wall. Eovaldi, Sale, and Price are always hurt, the Yankees are loaded, and this team’s chances of winning a World Series were precarious. So they figured to punt on 2020, and dump Mookie and Price rather than pay through the nose to field a Wild Card team.

Here’s hoping they now put together an actual organizational plan for the first time in a decade and get after it next year. At least we’ll have the XFL to watch this spring!