Tag: Jon Heyman

If the Red Sox Trade Xander Bogaerts, We Riot

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There have been more and more rumors circulating that the Red Sox are at least entertaining the idea of trading their best all around player. In the midst of their worst season in decades, the Sox are looking for any and all avenues to rebuild and reload. This ain’t it. 

If the Red Sox punt on this season I’m ok with that because I understand the legitimate need for a bridge year every now and then. It’s something Theo Epstein was adamant about in “Feeding the Monster.” You can’t be good every single year. Even the Yankees adopted this soft reset approach over the past few years to extraordinary (regular season) results. You need to take a step back and reload every once in a while otherwise you’re going to trade all your assets and overextend yourself on overpriced free agents and then you’ll have to do a hard reset. Kind of like what they’re staring at right now.

You saw the full value of the bridge year in 2006 when the Sox were less than two years removed from a World Series title but were coming off getting swept in the 2005 ALDS (thanks Tony Graffanino). Despite winning 95 games in ’05, the Sox recognized they were further away from winning a title than their record reflected. So rather than just double down on an aging core they took a step back and acquired some young talent like Coco Crisp and some veteran placeholders like Mark Loretta until the next wave of prospects like Dustin Pedroia (2007 Rookie of the Year), Kevin Youkilis, Jonathan Papelbon, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Clay Buchholz were ready to truly flourish and/or take over full time. It paid off. In 2007 the Sox recognized they were ready to compete again with a combination of their veteran core (Manny, Ortiz, Varitek, Schilling, Nixon), the aforementioned infusion of young (cheap) talent, and some new acquisitions. So they went all out ahead of the 2007 season and signed JD Drew to a (at the time) massive 5 year $70 million deal as well as Daisuke Matsuzaka to a 6 year $51 million deal (plus the $51 million posting fee). The result? The Sox were the wire to wire best team in baseball winning 96 games and the AL East en route to their second title in 4 years. Yes, the Sox did trade one of their top prospects in Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell before the 2006 season, but Beckett was only 26 at the time and was the anchor of their rotation when the team went for it all in 2007.

The Red Sox have the opportunity to do the same thing here, but if they elect to trade Xander Bogaerts they’re not just punting on a season; they’re removing the core of their rebuild. Why trade a 27-year-old shortstop who just re-signed on a team friendly deal (6 years, $120M) through 2025 and finished 5th in MVP voting last year?

Why trade a guy that you scouted, signed at the age of 16, developed into a player that is just now hitting his prime, is a 2x All-Star, is a 3x Silver Slugger, and became a vital piece of two World Series titles? Yes Bogaerts has a full no-trade clause kick in after the deadline this year, but these are typically the kind of guys you want to build around.  

This is not the same as Mookie Betts. Mookie Betts wanted a contract that quite literally was 3x the size of what Bogaerts re-signed for last spring. Mookie was in a walk year and was noncommital about even wanting to be in Boston, whereas Xander re-signed early. The irony is that despite Mookie’s career WAR doubling that of Bogaerts, you’d probably get a better return for Xander because he has 4+ seasons left on his contract. Doesn’t mean you should do it though. 

I am a full blown prospect fanatic so while it obviously paid off in 2018 I never loved Dave Dombrowski’s M.O. of ripping apart the farm system. So I understand the value of Bogaerts and the return the team could get, but if you trade him you basically are putting all your chips into the middle of the table and banking on TBD prospects, Rafael Devers, and Alex Verdugo. Not something I want to bet the next 5-10 years of the Red Sox on. 

Obviously Boston’s farm system is not ripe with future All-Stars like the ’06 team was, but thats the best part about currently being on pace for the worst winning percentage in team history; you are in play for the No. 1 overall pick. The Red Sox have never had the first overall pick in the history of the MLB draft. That’s value right there. Combine that with some smaller deals like you’re seeing with Workman and Hembree getting dealt and potentially trading guys like JD Martinez who I love, but is 33-years-old and may be the only valuable asset you have. There’s also Andrew Benintendi who I would have thought unthinkable to trade at the start of last season, but he has seemingly taken a plummet in his development the last two seasons. If the rumors are true and the Sox could get a young, promising starter like Mike Clevinger or Zach Plesac, I’d strongly consider it. 

It’s time for Chaim Bloom to make the smart, unheralded moves that the team brought him here to do. Blowing it up and trading a player that is essentially your captain is not the way to go. Don’t forget, the Sox also have Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale returning to the mound next year. So use the Theo blueprint; take the bridge year, but don’t blow up the damn bridge.

The Red Sox Can Pay Mookie Betts $420 Million or Trade Him for Pennies on the Dollar. Clocks Ticking

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I love watching Mookie Betts play. He is one of the best homegrown talents the Red Sox have ever had. Betts has been insistent on reaching free agency, much to the chagrin of the Sox, but I don’t blame him one bit. Know your worth and go out there and get it. If I’m John Henry though, do I really want to pay Mookie $420 Million?? That is a lot of Schrute Bucks.

The answer seems more and more likely to be no he does not.

I don’t know if Mookie wants to be here or not and it’s not really fair to look at contract negotiations and decipher one way or another, especially with both sides so far apart in total dollars. Sure you’d prefer a guy who loves Boston over someone who hates the fishbowl mentality of playing at Fenway, but thats not even my concern. My concern is this contract becoming a disaster relatively quickly. 12 years is a long, long time. We laugh when we look back at the Albert Pujols Angels contract, the second A-Rod Yankees contract,the Giancarlo Stanton contract, the Miguel Cabrera contract etc. etc. Now of course you’re paying for the front half of that contract where guys are racking up MVPs, Triple Crowns, and ideally World Series rings, but a 12 year deal would have the Sox paying Mookie through his age 40 season. How many 40 year old baseball players do you know?

And Dennis Quaid doesn’t count.

Again, it’s not my money so if the Sox want to break the bank then have at it, but the team is already mired in a (self imposed) payroll mess because they can’t (read: won’t) foot the bill.

Betts is an absolute stud and although he had a bit of a down year last year, he is only 2 years removed from an MVP season. I just worry about a 5’9″ guy making $35M a year until I have kids old enough to be wearing their Sox jerseys to MIDDLE SCHOOL. The Sox are in a similar situation right now with another homegrown talent limping to the finish line in Dustin Pedroia. I don’t want to speak ill of a fellow short guy, but Pedroia’s body just could not hold up and the Sox are now on the hook for a player who sadly may never take the field again.

So should the Red Sox trade Mookie? Well if John Henry didn’t show his poker face worse than Teddy KGB with a box of Oreos then yea maybe.

But the entire league knows the Sox are looking to unload Mookie and shed salary so they are getting lowballed by everyone. Granted a lot of the best deals that get done are the ones you never hear of in the press, but the best offer we’ve heard, according to the San Diego Union Tribune, is with the Padres for Wil fucking Myers plus “two young major leaguers and at least one prospect.”

“Myers led the Padres with a 4.4 combined WAR (wins above replacement) in 2017 and ’18 but last season endured significant slumps and finished with a .239/.321/418 batting line and -0.3 WAR.

Betts posted a 33.8 WAR over the past four seasons, second in the major leagues to Mike Trout’s 35.5 in that span.” 

Oh and eating at least half of Myers’ contract to boot? PASS.

God damnit. Always look for the blue check mark kids.

Ken Rosenthal also reported something similar with names like Manuel Margot and Kirby Yates thrown in.

Margot is a 25 years old centerfielder who hit .238 with 12 HRs, 37 RBI, a 3.04 OBP and 1.8 WAR last year. Solid. Kirby Yates (who the Sox actually drafted in 2005) is a legit reliever, was an All-Star last year, and had 41 saves and a 1.19 ERA with a 15.0 SO9 (K’s per 9 innings). However, he’s also going to be 33 before the start of the season and had 15 career saves in the 5 seasons prior to last year. MLB relievers rise and fall like the ocean so I’m not exactly dying to have one be the linchpin of a Mookie trade.

I would rather ride out the season and take one last shot at a World Series with a still borderline elite Red Sox roster (if healthy) and risk losing Mookie for nothing rather than dumping him for 30 cents on the dollar.

Now all the Sox need is a manager…

Dice-K 2.0 Watch is ON as the Red Sox are in on Japanese Phenom Prospect Shohei Otani

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NESN – It appears the Boston Red Sox want a seat at the table of the Shohei Otani sweepstakes. The Red Sox are one of many MLB teams to express interest in the highly-touted Japanese pitcher/outfielder, according to multiple reports. The Sox and New York Yankees have the most international allotment money in the majors — $8 million apiece — and thus are in the best position to pursue a player like Otani, per Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. And according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports and The Athletic, Boston and New York are among 13 teams who have requested to scout Otani in person.

Tomato/to-mah-toh. While some may see Dice-K 2.0 others may see a pitcher/outfielder who excels at both and think of the immortal Casey Kelley! Another can’t miss prospect who was so good at pitching and playing the field that he ended up being good at neither as a pro.

The Sox have been gearing up for a move like this though as they are tied for the most international allotment money in the majors at $8M. Tied with the goddamn Yankees to boot.

So you know the Red Sox are just itching to throw some money at a sexy foreign prospect because they have such a great track record with expensive international players like Dice-K and colossal bust Rusney Castillo. Boston tends to fare better with smaller deals when dipping its toe into the international pool with guys like Junichi Tazawa and Hideki Okajima. We did also get guys like Xander Bogaerts and Yoan Moncada (top prospect in MLB despite his early career struggles).

Obviously the Sox aren’t going to shun the international market, nor should they, because of a few (HUGE) swings and misses, but I am a little reluctant to give another gigantic payday to an unknown player because he’s mowing down 140 pound Japanese guys halfway across the world.

Either way Shohei Otani played in the WBC for Japan and currently plays in the Nippon Pro Baseball League (just like ya boy Dice-K) and is straight up DOMINATING.

“He started 20 games on the mound for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters in 2016, tallying a 10-4 record and a 1.86 ERA. He also has thrown the fastest recorded pitch in NPB history, at 102 mph. Otani excelled as a hitter last season, as well, posting a .322 batting average with 22 home runs and 67 RBIs in 2014 games played.”

So definitely someone to keep an eye on, especially if David Price continues to circle the drain amidst his $217 DL stint. Shohei Otani watch is ON!

PS – Fun fact. A few years ago I made the pilgrimage to Queens to check out Citi Field as the Mets were playing the Red Sox. And who was on the mound? Yup, Dice-K. Didn’t even realize he was still in the league. How’d he do you ask? Left the game due to injury of course. What a career.