Tag: Nick Pivetta

The 300s Red Sox 2022 Season Preview

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After another cold, dark, and suspiciously long winter, this afternoon we get The Masters, game day dogs on the grill, and most importantly, Red Sox Opening Day. I wasn’t sure we’d get here after an extensive lockout, constant news of failed negotiations between the players and the owners, and rainouts delaying games further, but we made it guys. It’s baseball season.

After finishing the season 92-70 last year and making a surprise run to the ALCS expectations are high for this Red Sox team. With one of the best lineups in the game expectations should be high as the Sox look to build on last year’s deep postseason run. This season already has a melancholy vibe to it though because there could be some big changes after the season with JD Martinez, Kike Hernandez, and potentially Xander Bogaerts all hitting free agency. The farm system is back in the Top 10 and the Sox finally opened their wallets with the Trevor Story signing so the franchise is in a good position for the long haul, but it’s definitely win now time down on Jersey Street.

The Duct Tape Rotation

The 2022 pitching staff is a mixed bag that should get better when if everyone can get healthy at the same time, but as it currently sits the rotation has some question marks. The staff includes one legit starter in Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 in 2021) but he comes with a long history of injuries, one potential hidden gem in Nick Pivetta (9-8, 4.53) who’s looking to build off an eye opening postseason run (2.63 ERA, 14 K’s in 13.2 IP), a 25-year-old in Tanner Houck (1-5, 3.52) that the Sox kept the training wheels on a bit last year but shows a ton of potential, and then two old and possibly washed up vets in Michael Wacha, yes that Wacha from the 2013 World Series, (5.05, 6.62, 4.76 ERAs the last 3 seasons) and Rich Hill (7-8, 3.86) at 42-years-young is back in Boston to see how long he can survive throwing 88 mph fastballs. Gone is rotation mainstay Eduardo Rodriguez after the Red Sox deemed him expendable and to be honest E-Rod seemed like he was gone the minute Alex Cora publicly scolded him for celebrating too hard in the middle of an ALCS game. A rare miss for Cora.

If it sounds like I’m missing someone, you’re right, I haven’t mentioned Chris Sale who somehow cracked a rib last month throwing a baseball. So I hate to pin my hopes on Chris Sale because while has the stuff to be the best pitcher in the game, he he has struggled mightily to stay healthy the last few years. I still blame the Sox for delaying Sale’s March 2020 Tommy John surgery by several months for no particular reason, which ended up costing Sale nearly two full years. After recently being placed on the 60 day IL, Sale is projected to return the first week of June so I’m cautiously optimistic, but when healthy the lefty has the stuff to carry the Sox down the stretch and into the playoffs.

Welcome to Boston, Trevor Story

I love this signing IF Story is indeed slated to be the second baseman of the future. I don’t however love the optics of the Red Sox signing a career shortstop the same exact year that their own franchise shortstop can opt out of his contract and become a free agent. At best it feels like hedging, at worst it feels like the Sox are preemptively moving on from their team’s de facto leader, homegrown All-Star, and 2x World Series champion.

Garrett Whitlock Will Be Key

For those who don’t know, the Red Sox essentially got Garrett Whitlock off the scrap heap, selecting him in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft off the Yankees roster. Coming off Tommy John surgery, Whitlock was nothing less than a revelation for the Sox last year going 8-4 with a 1.96 ERA and racking up 81 strikeouts in 73.1 IP. Like a child of divorce, Whitlock seems to be stuck between what his dad (Alex Cora) and his mom (Chaim Bloom) want him to be as he gets yo-yo’d back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen. It has a striking similarity to the Jonathan Papelbon situation way back in 2006 when Paps came into the league as a starter before getting shifted to the pen for the postseason and ultimately taking the closer reigns from Keith Foulke. Now, I think Whitlock should be a starter because he has all the tools and multiple legit pitches to become a top of the rotation guy. However, baseball as a whole has really devalued top tier starters as analytics have taken over the game and managers routinely pull starters after a couple of times through the batting order. “Openers” used to be something we all laughed at the Rays for sending out relievers to pitch a few innings to start a game instead of a traditional starter. Now you see it all the time. The workhorse ace of a pitching staff is an endangered species. There were only THREE players with more than 200 innings pitched last year in all of baseball!

So perhaps Whitlock has a higher objective value coming out of the pen as the team’s Rover, but I still would rather seem him as a starter. Then again, Papelbon went on to become the greatest closer in team history so what do I know. Let’s not forget that the team did jerk around guys like Daniel Bard who eventually fell apart and the Yankees did the same thing with Joba Chamberlain. I once saw Chamberlain start a game at Fenway where he struck out 11 guys before the Yankees move him back to the pen. Then again he was a dominant reliever and was the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera before also falling apart. So I guess my main point is let’s just make a decision and stick with it rather than hem and haw to the point that the team screws up another young pitcher.

Rafael Devers Poised for Another MVP Season

Contract extension talks have stalled between the Sox and Bogaerts and Devers so that’s been a bit of a downer heading into the season. Devers just turned 25 in October and posted a season of 38 HR, 113 RBI while hitting .279/.352/.538 last year. He led the Red Sox in HR, RBI, Runs, Hits, Total Bases, Slugging and OPS en route to his first All-Star selection and finishing 11th in MVP voting. No player has more extra base hits than Rafael Devers over the last three seasons. Get. The. Deal. Done.

Closing Time

Matt Barnes was an All-Star last season lest anyone forget after his second half ERA of 6.48 and ya know being left off the ALCS roster. It didn’t help that Barnes seemingly fell apart right around the time the Spider Tack story broke and was suddenly explicitly banned. Maybe it was just a mental thing and he needed a full winter away from the ballpark to reset, but I’m not exactly penciling Barnes in for 40 saves this year. Whitlock could step in and handle the role, but again with baseball overindexing in middle relief guys, the Sox may not want to pigeonhole Whitlock to 1-inning outings. Cora has gone out of his way to not name a closer, which is fine, but I don’t love a revolving door at the end of games.

“They don’t want to call it closer by committee so they’re not gonna use that term is because they know theres a negative connotation. The reason Cora hasn’t named a closer is because they’re not going to use one.” – Tony Mazz on 98.5

It seems like the Sox are just throwing arms against the wall to see what sticks and that could be a problem, but then again relievers are notoriously fickle. So the team will need to define some roles in the pen, but expect the Sox to be active in the reliever market if Barnes and co. don’t bounce back.

This is a Flawed But Dangerous Team

Vegas has the over/under set for the 2022 Red Sox at 85.5 after winning 92 last year. With a loaded lineup that will mash its way to a ton of wins on its own and a potentially sneaky good bullpen, the Sox should be a lock to hit the over. The rotation could be a disaster if there are any more injuries, but with Sale due back in June they should be good enough at the front end. The only thing that could hinder them is how the AL East has seemingly become the best division in baseball. Vegas has the Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays all projected to win more games than the Sox this season, which Boston is intimately aware of after all-time classic playoff battles against the Yankees and Rays just last fall. With all that being said, I like my chances with a lineup featuring Kike Hernandez, Rafael Devers, Xander Boagaerts, JD Martinez, Alex Verdugo, Trevor Story, and even Bobby Dalbec if he keeps up his second half surge from last season. I think this team will definitely need to add an outfield bat if they’re going to reach the World Series because I love former ALCS MVP Jackie Bradley’s defense, but the man did hit .163 in his lone season with the Brewers last year. Maybe that bat off the bench comes in the form of top prospect Triston Casas, but even then, the kid plays first base. So Chaim will likely need to find an OF bat at the deadline in the same vein as Steve Pearce if the Sox are to go the distance.

Media predictions are all over the place too so nobody knows what to expect from this team. The Ringer has the Sox as the 12th ranked team in baseball behind the Jays, Rays and Yankees, Felger has the Sox winning 95 games, and Chris Gasper has called the upcoming season a bridge year. Then again media predictions are just that, fugazi attempts at defining a team before the first pitch of Opening Day. A lot of people picked the Sox to finish a distant 4th in the division last year, but the team clicked and ended up winning 92 games en route to the ALCS.

With the addition of a healthy Chris Sale I have this team winning 95 games this year, which should be enough to get them into the new 12-team playoff format. Is this a World Series winning team? I’m not sold on that without some additions, but this should be a team that is threatening for the pennant.

Desperately Needing a Quick Start, Red Sox Go 0-3 Against Orioles

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Just like that the Red Sox fall to 0-3 and are already chasing a losing record less than a week into the 2021 season.

Nathan Eovaldi and Tanner Houck looked great in the Red Sox first two games of the season, which was super encouraging to see. Eovaldi struck out 4 in 5.1 innings giving up just 1 run and only got pulled because of the analytics (rather than his performance) and the fact that you don’t want your injury prone 1A starter throwing 120 pitches on Opening Day. Houck was also dynamite as he struck out 8 in 5 innings and surrendered just 2 earned runs. Obviously Eovaldi is an injury waiting to happen and Houck has thrown 22 innings in his entire career so the optimism here is fragile. Oh and in the last game of the opening series Garrett Richards did exactly what we all knew he would do and got shelled giving up 6 earned runs in just 2 innings.

I’m not about to freak out but getting off to a fast start is more important than you think. Just about every time the Sox have had a losing record in April over the past decade they’ve missed the playoffs. Do you realized that despite their massive achievements (two World Series titles since 2013) the Red Sox have missed the playoffs 7 out of the last 11 seasons?? This is no time to start slow because the Sox have shown they cannot dig themselves out down the stretch.

Now there is reason for some optimism here. If Eovaldi (injury prone) and Houck (young and unproven) can be a solid No. 2 and No. 3 and if Eduardo Rodriguez can come back and be the ace the Red Sox expect him to be, then the team’s pitching staff could be…I’m gonna say it…pretty good. At least in the sense that you only need 3 starters to get through a playoff series. Now, I say ace with a small “A” until E-Rod shows he can return to and improve upon his 2019 form (19-6, 3.81 ERA) after a year plus missed due to Covid and now dead arm etc.

That’s before you even start to think about Chris Sale coming back from Tommy John. The team has been very tight lipped about the time table for his return, but mid-late summer would make sense based on when he got the surgery. I’m not pinning my hopes on another guy coming off Tommy John, but if the Sox are in contention by late summer then the return of Sale could be a huge shot in the arm for this team.

The biggest disappointment of this young season though has without a doubt been the offense. Say what you will about the absolute disaster of historic proportions the 2020 Red Sox were, but they still finished 2nd in Hits, 5th in Total Bases, 3rd in batting average, and 8th in Slugging Percentage in all of baseball last season. So we know if nothing else this team can hit. So to get swept by the Orioles with little to no production from the lineup was ugly. Sure it was the first series of the year with temperatures just above freezing at times, but to score just 5 runs in 3 games against the Orioles and the corpse of Matt Harvey is concerning.

The Sox have no time to dwell as they’re right back at it tonight against the defending AL champs, Tampa Bay. With Nick Pivetta and Martin Perez starting the first two games of the series though the Sox will need to finally get the offense going if they want to avoid really falling into an early season hole.

Today is the Trade Deadline, Lets Look at Where the Red Sox Currently Stand

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The MLB trade deadline is today at 4 pm and the last place Red Sox are in full blown sell mode. I wrote last week about how this team doesn’t need to completely blow it up and trade cornerstones like Xander Boagerts, but it’s hard to predict what the team will do since it’s Chaim Bloom’s first deadline as the guy in charge. Lets take a look at what they’ve already done, what could be in the works, and what Sox fans might actually have to look forward to.

Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree Traded to the Phillies

Crowned the Red Sox closer heading into the season, the team just never really needed Workman because they were so bad there were rarely many save opportunities. Usually the team was getting blown out long before the final frame so Workman only had seven appearances before getting dealt. Both players were in contract years so the deal makes sense for a basement team. In return the Red Sox received 27-year-old RHP Nick Pivetta and 23-year-old RHP Connor Seabold.

Pivetta is a 6’5″ 220 pound former 4th round draft pick of the Nationals, who actually traded Pivetta to the Phillies in 2015 for Jonathan Papelbon. Pivetta was a starter for the Phillies and flashed at times with his “front of the rotation potential,” but was pretty up and down before getting relegated to the bullpen so he’s a buy low candidate that the Sox are smart to take the chance on.

Seabold has never pitched higher than AA, but had a 2.25 ERA last season in the Eastern League and was a 3rd round pick for the Phillies in 2017 so this is a solid prospect to get back.

Mitch Moreland Traded to the Padres

Moreland was an excellent role player for the Red Sox over the last 2+ seasons, making his lone All-Star team in 2018 as the Sox battered everyone en route to a World Series title (including a clutch pinch hit 3 run HR in Game 4). He was having an even better season this year hitting .328 with 8 home runs and 21 RBIs in just 22 games. Although he was limited by injuries last year, Moreland was a legit power bat for the Sox hitting 15 home runs in 2018 and then 19 in 2019 even though he had 124 less plate appearances. So its a bummer to see him go, but he was essentially a victim of his own success while the Sox transitioned to a rebuild.

In return for Moreland the Sox received outfielder Jeisson Rosario and infielder Hudson Potts. Potts is a 21-year-old 3B and was actually the 24th overall pick just four years ago so there is a pedigree there. Rosario is a 20-year-old outfielder that hasn’t played above A ball yet so this guy is a ways off from the big leagues. You can read the scouting reports of the two players via MassLive, but keep in mind Potts and Rosario were just the Padre’s No. 17 and No. 28 ranked prospects according to Baseball America.

The Moreland trade did however clear the way for Bobby Dalbec, the Red Sox’ No. 3 ranked prospect according to MLB.com, who hit a dinger in his major league debut.

Trade Rumors Surrounding Christian Vazquez

I think this would be a mistake because he is a player on a cheap contract at a premium position with elite defense and pretty good power. Although he is a bit older than I realized at 30-years-old, but he’s an energy guy that I think the Sox would be wise to keep around.

Trade Rumors Around Xander, JD Martinez, Jackie Bradley Jr, Andrew Benintendi, Nathan Eovaldi

I wrote about this the other day and I think Bogaerts should be untouchable, but you never know. The other guys I would listen to offers on, but the hottest Benintendi rumors were focused on a deal with Cleveland for Mike Clevinger, who they just traded to San Diego. So maybe none of these guys get dealt, but we’ll see today.

Joey B also pointed out the Sox are also exploring a potential trade/salary dump of Eovaldi.

Red Sox Draft Position

This is about the only thing for Red Sox fans to be excited about these days. With the 3rd worst record in ALL of baseball and just 2 games better than the Pirates for the worst record, the Sox are in play for potentially the No. 1 overall pick next year. Due to a myriad of reasons the Sox could potentially finish with the worst record and still not get the top pick, which would be the most 2020 thing ever, but it’s fun to daydream about the most likely No. 1 overall pick pitching at Fenway, Vanderbilt flamethrower Kumar Rocker.

Luxury Tax Reset Day

Finally and probably the most exciting thing to come out of this shit season is that by getting through today the Red Sox officially (kinda/sort) have their luxury tax penalties reset. This means the Sox have had to dump Mookie Betts, David Price and endure this disastrous season, but by doing so have climbed out of the hell zone that because of gigantic tax penalties would have kept John Henry from making any big moves for YEARS.