Tag: player props

Gridiron Tales Week 3 Continued: Austin (Ekeler) 3:16 Says Edition

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Chargers Austin Ekeler presents problems for Raiders as a receiver | Las Vegas Review-Journal

Thursday: 1-2 (-1.17 units)

Season: 1-7 (-6.17 units)

Recap: CMC getting hurt helped no one, but we wish him a speedy recovery. Mooney had an interesting stat line, recording 4 catches for 20 yards and TD… ugh!

First Sunday Pick: Austin Ekeler O54.5 rushing yards at KC (-115) +104 with 20% DK profit boost

Fact #1: The Chiefs have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to RBs through the first two weeks (260).

Fact #2: Ekeler has posted rushing totals of 57 and 54 yards, respectively this season.

Fact #3: Ekeler ran for over 90 yards in their first meeting last season.

Second Sunday Pick: Derrick Henry O102.5 rushing yards vs IND (-115) +104 with 20% DK profit boost

Fact #1: Henry’s last 3 rushing totals vs Indy: 149, 103 and 178.

Fact #2: Less you forge he ran for 182 on Seattle last week.

Third Sunday Pick: Davante Adams O86.5 receiving yards at SF (-115)

Fact #1: Adams went for 10-173-1 on this San Fran team last season.

Fact #2: Adams is also fresh off an 8-121-0 game on Monday vs Detroit.

I’m also going to sprinkle Adams anytime TD at -110 because he’s without one this season and that’s uncharacteristic as he hasn’t gone three straight games without a TD since November 2019.

Fifth and Sixth Sunday Pick: Matthew Stafford O26.5 completions vs Bucs (-120) +100 with 20% DK profit boost and Robert Woods O5.5 catches (-115)

Fact #1: These two teams clashed last season with Goff at the helm for the Rams and he went 39/51, 376 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT, so using the transitive property, Stafford should be able to do that or better since he’s an upgrade from Goff.

Fact #2: Darrell Henderson is out with a rib injury today and no team has successful rushing outings vs the Bucs anyway, so McVay will be calling passing plays early and often. Last season they attempted just 20 rushes.

Gridiron Tales Week 3: Back The Cats In Houston Edition

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Fantasy football running back depth charts: Safest backfields, committees, handcuffs for 2021 - DraftKings Nation

Last Week: 0-5 (-5 units)

Recap: A lot of bad things occurred; nothing more, nothing less.

First Thursday Pick: Christian McCaffrey O5.5 receptions (-115)

Fact #1: CMC has logged 9 and 5 catches, respectively, over the past two games and the latter came through roughly three quarters of play before he got hurt and did not return.

Fact #2: The Texans have given up an average of 4.5 catches to RBs over the first two weeks.


Second Thursday Pick: Chuba Hubbard O2.5 rec yards (-115)

Fact #1: After playing just 11% of the snaps in Week 1 vs the Jets (a close game), CMC’s injury + the score, raised that percentage to 25% in Week 2 vs the Saints.

Logic point #1: Many pundits except this game to be a very one-sided affair and at just 2.5 rec yards, he literally needs just one catch to make this come to fruition.

Fact #2: This will somehow be a game-long sweat!

Third Thursday Pick: Anthony Miller O22.5 rec yds (-120)

Fact #1: It’s his Texans debut!

Fact #2: Both Danny Amendola and Nico Miller are out with injuries.

Fact #3: I’m skeptical on the Panthers Defense because their first test was Zach Wilson in his NFL debut and their second test was the Saints without eight coaches, most of which were on the offensive side of the ball.

Gridiron Tales Week 2: Dak to Life, Dak to Reality Edition

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What would you do if the Cowboys offered Dak Prescott to the Jets? - Gang Green Nation

Last season: 25-18 (58.1%)

It feels so good to be back. I took Week 1 “off” from making official picks because I didn’t want to write prop suggestions based on feelings because I’m a stats and research kind of guy. Week 1 was enough of a sample size + I’ll very much utilize player history where applicable.

First Pick: Dak Prescott O26.5 completions at LAC (-105)

Fact #1: In 5 full games under Mike McCarthy, Dak’s completion totals are: 25, 34, 37, 14 and 42 last week.

Fact #2: At 55 points, this is the highest O/U this week, so points are expected to come early and often.


Second Pick: Jalen Hurts O19.5 completions vs SF (-130)

Fact #1: In 4 full games as the starter, Hurts has compiled completion totals of 17, 24, 21 and 27 last week.

Fact #2: This is a 9ers team that let Jared Goff and the Lions creep back into last week’s Game with 38 completions on 57 attempts.


Third Pick: David Montgomery O63.5 rush yards vs CIN (-120)

Fact #1: In Week 1, Montgomery turned 16 carries into 108 yards and a score vs a Rams team that did not allow a 100-yard rusher all last season.

Fact #2: I know the Bengals held Dalvin Cook to 61 rush yards on 20 carries, but no one believes Cincy is on the same defensive playing field as the Rams.


Fourth Pick: Chris Carson O68.5 rush yards vs TEN (-115)

Fact #1: Carson turned 16 carries into 91 yards against the Colts, who allowed the third-fewest rushing yards to RBs last season.

Fact #2: In Week 1, the Titans allowed 53 rush yards to James Conner and 63 to Chase Edmonds. With Rashad Penny out, that’s even more breathing room for Carson to take more of the rushing attempts.


Fifth Pick: Christian McCaffrey O6.5 receptions vs NOLA (+105)

Fact #1: CMC caught all nine of his targets vs the Jets.

Fact #2: In 6 career games vs Nola, his reception totals are 9, 5, 8, 1, 9 and 7. New head coach, but the feeding doesn’t look like it will stop.

1.29.31 Hoop Tales: Who Doesn’t Love Revenge Games?!

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If Nets get Harden, where should New Orleans Pelicans trade Jrue Holiday?

Wednesday: 5-2 (+2.41 units)

Season: 32-35 (-7.53 units)


First Pick: Devonte’ Graham O15.5 pts vs IND (-118)

Fact #1: Graham has eclipsed 16 points in four of his last five games.

Fact #2: Indiana is allowing an average of 26.5 PPG to the two-guard position over their last seven games — the second most in the NBA over this span.


Second Pick: De’Andre Hunter O16.5 pts vs WAS (-106)

Fact #1: Hunter has eclipsed 17 points in three straight.

Fact #2: The Wizards are allowing 26.5 PPG to the small forward position over their last seven games.


Third and Fourth Picks: Trae Young O2.5 made 3pters (-105) and O28.5 pts (-120) vs WAS

Fact #1: Young has eclipsed 3+ made three’s in four straight.

Fact #2: Young has eclipsed 29+ in three of his last four.

Fact #3: The Wizards are allowing 28.1 PPG to the point guard position over their last seven.


Fifth Pick: Bucks/Pelicans O57 1st quarter points (-112)

Fact #1: The Bucks (31.5) and Pelicans (29.8) are 1st and 6th, respectively in first quarter point averages this season.


Sixth Pick: Jrue Holiday O16.5 pts vs NOP (-103)

Logic: Holiday is coming off his worst shooting performance of the season against Toronto (2-14), but tonight is his first regular season return to New Orleans, who traded him this past off-season. I’m here for the revenge game narrative.


Seventh Pick: Marvin Bagley III O13.5 pts vs TOR (-110)

Fact #1: The Raptors are allowing 23 PPG to the PF position over their last seven games.

Fact #2: Bagley has eclipsed 14 points in three of his last five and put up 15 against the Raptors in their first meeting back on the 8th.


Eighth Pick: James Harden O27.5 pts vs OKC (-106)

Fact #1: You have to remind your past that you’re better since you left them.

Fact #2: Durant is out tonight.

Fact #3: Harden has 28+ in three of his seven games since joining Brooklyn.

1.27.21 Hoop Tales: What’s your Favorite Scary (Terry) Movie Edition?

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Terry Rozier at the forefront of Hornets' youth movement - The Boston Globe

Last Thursday: 4-3 (+.52 units)

Season: 27-33 (-9.93 units)

Recap: Last Thursday looked oh, so promising until Malcolm Brogdon decided to hit his over as the game-winning 3-pter in OT against the Magic.


First Pick: Terry Rozier O17.5 pts vs IND (-120)

Fact #1: The Pacers are allowing an average of 25 PPG to the two-guard position over their last seven games.

Fact #2: Rozier has eclipsed 18 pts in four of his last six.


Second Pick: Jerami Grant O23.5 pts vs CLE (-110)

Fact #1: Grant went for 28 the first time these teams played and has eclipsed 24 pts in four of his last six.

Fact #2: The Cavs are allowing 28.5 PPG to the small forward position — the 2nd-most by any team — over their last seven games.


Third Pick: Evan Fournier O17.5 pts vs SAC (-134)

Fact #1: Fournier has eclipsed 18 points in all four games since returning from injury.

Fact #2: The Kings are allowing 27 PPG to the two-guard position over their last seven contests.


Obligatory homer picks incoming…

Fourth Pick: Kyrie Irving O24.5 pts vs ATL (-118)

Fact #1: Irving has hit this number in three of four games since Harden’s arrival

Fact #2: The Hawks allow an average of 25 PPG to the PG position over their last seven.


Fifth Pick: James Harden O9.5 assists vs ATL (+107)

Fact #1: Harden has recorded double-digit assists in five of six games since joining Brooklyn and this game should be very high-paced as the previous two matchups were.


Sixth Pick: Nets -5.5 vs ATL (-110)

Fact #1: The Nets are catching the Hawks in their third-game-in-four-nights and they struggled to get past a Kawhi and PG13-less Clippers team last night.


Seventh Pick: Bucks -2.5 1st quarter vs TOR (-108)

Fact #1: The Bucks are an NBA-best 12-4 against the 1st quarter spread this season. Yes, Toronto is 11-6, but they will be with OG Anunoby, while Siakam is a game-time decision.

1.22.21 Hoop Tales: You’re on the Mark-kanen, Lauri Edition

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Lauri Markkanen Close to Returning - On Tap Sports Net

Wednesday: 1-4 (-3.25 units)

Season: 23-30 (-10.46 units)

Recap: Friendly reminder to you all + self: make sure to see if the player you pick is starting before selecting him for two props (i.e. Joe Harris).


First Pick: Lauri Markkanen O17.5 pts vs CHA (-125)

Fact #1: Markkanen has eclipsed 18+ points in two straight.

Fact #2: The Hornets are allowing an average of 24 PPG to the SF position over their last seven games.


Second Pick: Bulls 1st Quarter ML vs CHA (+105)

Fact #1: Due to a postponed game against Washington on Wednesday, the Hornets have had the past five days off, so I’d expect the tiniest bit of rust to be shaken off through the first 12 minutes.

Fact #2: The Bulls are 9-5 ATS in the 1st quarter this season.


Third and Fourth Picks: Mason Plumlee O8.5 pts (-110) and O7.5 rbs (-122) vs HOU

Fact #1: Christian Wood is out tonight. For you “casuals” out there like Shaq, that means there are a lot of rebounds up for grabs tonight.

Fact #2: With PJ Tucker playing the 5, I have to imagine he draws Plumlee and Blake is matched with Boogie Cousins on both sides. That’s a 5-6 inch advantage for Plums.

Fact #3: Plumlee has eclipsed 9+ points in three straight and has 8+ boards in three of his last five.


Fifth Pick: Malcolm Brogdon U22.5 pts vs ORL (+105)

Fact #1: Brogdon has yet to string together consecutive games over 23 points — that’s literally the logic behind this pick.


Sixth Pick: Kyrie Irving O26.5 pts vs CLE (-117)

Fact #1: Collin Sexton got the best of Irving, so it’s only fair for Kyrie to return the favor. Irving returned with 37 points on Wednesday and no Durant should mean he could get at least 30 this season.


Seventh Pick: James Harden O28.5 pts vs CLE (-110)

Fact #1: Harden’s point totals in three games with BRK are 32, 34 and 21. The 21 came with Durant on the floor. With him out tonight, that’s a lot of shots for him and Kyrie to have in their quest for 30 each.

1.20.21 Hoop Tales: Scary Hours in Cleveland Edition

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Nets news: James Harden intrigued with Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving team

Monday: 4-1 (+2.35 units)

Season: 22-26 (-7.21 units)


First and Second Picks: Joe Harris O12.5 Pts (-107) and O2.5 3Pters (+105) vs CLE

Fact #1: The debut of Brooklyn’s Big Three is tonight.

Fact #2: As a result, Joe Harris should never see a contested three-point attempt when they are on the court with him.

Fact #3: Harris has 15+ pts in 4 straight and has attempted exactly 8 3pters/gm over his last three.


Third Pick: D’Angelo Russell O24.5 Pts vs ORL (-130)

Fact #1: Russell worked for us on Monday against Atlanta, so let’s go back to the well.

Fact #2: The Magic are allowing an average of 28.4 PPG to point guards over their last seven.

Fact #3: Russell has hit 25+ in three straight and five of his last six.


Fourth Pick: Nikola Vucevic O23.5 Pts vs MIN (-134)

Fact #1: Vucevic has eclipsed 24+ in two straight and four of his last five.

Fact #2: The Wolves are giving up a league-high 28.4 PPG to the center position over their last seven.


Fifth Pick: Kings/Clippers O59 Pts 1st Quarter

Fact #1: The Kings 1st quarter over is 10-4 this season, while the Clippers is 8-6 — 1st and 4th most overs, respectively.

Fact #2: These teams combined for 65 when they played 5 days ago.

1.18.21 Hoop Tales: Access (Jerami) Grant-ed Edition

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Jerami Grant Records First Double-Double with Detroit Pistons - Sports Illustrated Syracuse Orange News, Analysis and More
Courtesy: SI

Last Time Out: 1-2

Season: 18-25 (-9.56 units)



First Pick: D’Angelo Russell O23.5 Pts vs ATL (-114) – win

Fact #1: Hawks are allowing 28.3 PPG to the point guard position over their last seven games.

Fact #2: Russell has reached 24+ points in four of his last five.


Second Pick: Clint Capela O14.5 Pts vs MIN (-118) – win

Fact #1: T-Wolves are allowing a league-high 28.5 PPG to the center position over their last seven games.

Fact #2: Capela has eclipsed 15+ in two straight.


Third Pick: Jerami Grant O22.5 Pts vs MIA (-115)

Fact #1: The Heat without Jimmy Butler have struggled to guard the SF position and thus have allowed 25 PPG to that position over their last seven.

Fact #2: Grant has reached 23+ points in five of his last six.


Fourth Pick: Pascal Siakam O7.5 rebs vs DAL (-114)

Fact #1: The Mavs are allowing 12 rebounds/game to the PF position over their last seven.

Fact #2: Siakam has eclipsed 8 rebounds in four of his last six.


Fifth Pick: Kevin Durant O29.5 Pts vs MIL (-122)

Fact #1: Durant has eclipsed 30 points in three of his last four.

Fact #2: Seems like KD’s over hits just about every night + having Harden on the court should afford him the same room to operate that he enjoyed with Kyrie, if not more.

1.9.21 Hoop Tales: Dear John (Collins) Edition

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John Collins' return won't save the Hawks this season -- because they don't need saving - CBSSports.com

Friday: 2-2 (-0.32 units)

Season: 17-23 (-8.47 units)


First Pick: John Collins O19.5 pts vs CHA (-121)

Fact #1: Collins has 20+ in three of his last five, including 23 against these same Hornets on Wednesday.

Fact #2: Hornets allow a league-high 28 PPG to the PF position over their last seven games.


Second Pick: Domantas Sabonis O19.5 pts vs PHX (-110)

Fact #1: The Suns are allowing an average of 24 PPG to the PF position over the last seven.

Fact #2: Sabonis has 20+ points in two of his last four.


Third Pick: Duncan Robinson O12.5 pts vs WAS (-105)

Fact #1: The Wizards can’t guard a parked car according to Bradley Beal.

Fact #2: The Wiz have allowed an average of 25 PPG to the two-guard position over their last seven.

1.8.21 Hoop Tales: Build (Mikal) Bridges, Not Walls Edition

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Case Study: Mikal Bridges is one of the best defenders in the NBA - Bright Side Of The Sun

Thursday: 2-2 (-0.09 units)

Season: 15-21 (-8.14 units)


First Pick: Mikal Bridges O11.5 pts vs DET (-125)

Fact #1: The Pistons allow 25.9 PPG to the small forward position this season.

Fact #2: Bridges has totaled 12+ points in five of his last six contests.


Second Pick: Zion Williamson O22.5 pts vs CHA (-130)

Fact #1: Zion has outings of 24 and 29 over his past two contests.

Fact #2: The Hornets allow an average of 25 PPG to the power forward position.


Third Pick: Bucks -6 spread vs UTA (-110)

Fact #1: Third game in four nights for Utah and they have looked bad on this road trip.

Fact #2: The Bucks are averaging 127 points per game over their last three, meanwhile the Jazz have only cracked 110 once over their last five contests.


Fourth Pick: Cole Anthony O14.5 pts vs HOU (-110)

Fact #1: Markelle Fultz is out for the season with a torn ACL.

Fact #2: Anthony reportedly won’t play Fultz-like minutes, but he shouldn’t need to do so to hit this number.

Fact #3: The Rockets allow 27.8 PPG to point guards this season.