Last season: 25-18 (58.1%)
It feels so good to be back. I took Week 1 “off” from making official picks because I didn’t want to write prop suggestions based on feelings because I’m a stats and research kind of guy. Week 1 was enough of a sample size + I’ll very much utilize player history where applicable.
First Pick: Dak Prescott O26.5 completions at LAC (-105)
Fact #1: In 5 full games under Mike McCarthy, Dak’s completion totals are: 25, 34, 37, 14 and 42 last week.
Fact #2: At 55 points, this is the highest O/U this week, so points are expected to come early and often.
Second Pick: Jalen Hurts O19.5 completions vs SF (-130)
Fact #1: In 4 full games as the starter, Hurts has compiled completion totals of 17, 24, 21 and 27 last week.
Fact #2: This is a 9ers team that let Jared Goff and the Lions creep back into last week’s Game with 38 completions on 57 attempts.
Third Pick: David Montgomery O63.5 rush yards vs CIN (-120)
Fact #1: In Week 1, Montgomery turned 16 carries into 108 yards and a score vs a Rams team that did not allow a 100-yard rusher all last season.
Fact #2: I know the Bengals held Dalvin Cook to 61 rush yards on 20 carries, but no one believes Cincy is on the same defensive playing field as the Rams.
Fourth Pick: Chris Carson O68.5 rush yards vs TEN (-115)
Fact #1: Carson turned 16 carries into 91 yards against the Colts, who allowed the third-fewest rushing yards to RBs last season.
Fact #2: In Week 1, the Titans allowed 53 rush yards to James Conner and 63 to Chase Edmonds. With Rashad Penny out, that’s even more breathing room for Carson to take more of the rushing attempts.
Fifth Pick: Christian McCaffrey O6.5 receptions vs NOLA (+105)
Fact #1: CMC caught all nine of his targets vs the Jets.
Fact #2: In 6 career games vs Nola, his reception totals are 9, 5, 8, 1, 9 and 7. New head coach, but the feeding doesn’t look like it will stop.