Category: Fantasy

1.22.21 Hoop Tales: You’re on the Mark-kanen, Lauri Edition

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Lauri Markkanen Close to Returning - On Tap Sports Net

Wednesday: 1-4 (-3.25 units)

Season: 23-30 (-10.46 units)

Recap: Friendly reminder to you all + self: make sure to see if the player you pick is starting before selecting him for two props (i.e. Joe Harris).


First Pick: Lauri Markkanen O17.5 pts vs CHA (-125)

Fact #1: Markkanen has eclipsed 18+ points in two straight.

Fact #2: The Hornets are allowing an average of 24 PPG to the SF position over their last seven games.


Second Pick: Bulls 1st Quarter ML vs CHA (+105)

Fact #1: Due to a postponed game against Washington on Wednesday, the Hornets have had the past five days off, so I’d expect the tiniest bit of rust to be shaken off through the first 12 minutes.

Fact #2: The Bulls are 9-5 ATS in the 1st quarter this season.


Third and Fourth Picks: Mason Plumlee O8.5 pts (-110) and O7.5 rbs (-122) vs HOU

Fact #1: Christian Wood is out tonight. For you “casuals” out there like Shaq, that means there are a lot of rebounds up for grabs tonight.

Fact #2: With PJ Tucker playing the 5, I have to imagine he draws Plumlee and Blake is matched with Boogie Cousins on both sides. That’s a 5-6 inch advantage for Plums.

Fact #3: Plumlee has eclipsed 9+ points in three straight and has 8+ boards in three of his last five.


Fifth Pick: Malcolm Brogdon U22.5 pts vs ORL (+105)

Fact #1: Brogdon has yet to string together consecutive games over 23 points — that’s literally the logic behind this pick.


Sixth Pick: Kyrie Irving O26.5 pts vs CLE (-117)

Fact #1: Collin Sexton got the best of Irving, so it’s only fair for Kyrie to return the favor. Irving returned with 37 points on Wednesday and no Durant should mean he could get at least 30 this season.


Seventh Pick: James Harden O28.5 pts vs CLE (-110)

Fact #1: Harden’s point totals in three games with BRK are 32, 34 and 21. The 21 came with Durant on the floor. With him out tonight, that’s a lot of shots for him and Kyrie to have in their quest for 30 each.

1.20.21 Hoop Tales: Scary Hours in Cleveland Edition

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Nets news: James Harden intrigued with Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving team

Monday: 4-1 (+2.35 units)

Season: 22-26 (-7.21 units)


First and Second Picks: Joe Harris O12.5 Pts (-107) and O2.5 3Pters (+105) vs CLE

Fact #1: The debut of Brooklyn’s Big Three is tonight.

Fact #2: As a result, Joe Harris should never see a contested three-point attempt when they are on the court with him.

Fact #3: Harris has 15+ pts in 4 straight and has attempted exactly 8 3pters/gm over his last three.


Third Pick: D’Angelo Russell O24.5 Pts vs ORL (-130)

Fact #1: Russell worked for us on Monday against Atlanta, so let’s go back to the well.

Fact #2: The Magic are allowing an average of 28.4 PPG to point guards over their last seven.

Fact #3: Russell has hit 25+ in three straight and five of his last six.


Fourth Pick: Nikola Vucevic O23.5 Pts vs MIN (-134)

Fact #1: Vucevic has eclipsed 24+ in two straight and four of his last five.

Fact #2: The Wolves are giving up a league-high 28.4 PPG to the center position over their last seven.


Fifth Pick: Kings/Clippers O59 Pts 1st Quarter

Fact #1: The Kings 1st quarter over is 10-4 this season, while the Clippers is 8-6 — 1st and 4th most overs, respectively.

Fact #2: These teams combined for 65 when they played 5 days ago.

1.18.21 Hoop Tales: Access (Jerami) Grant-ed Edition

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Jerami Grant Records First Double-Double with Detroit Pistons - Sports Illustrated Syracuse Orange News, Analysis and More
Courtesy: SI

Last Time Out: 1-2

Season: 18-25 (-9.56 units)



First Pick: D’Angelo Russell O23.5 Pts vs ATL (-114) – win

Fact #1: Hawks are allowing 28.3 PPG to the point guard position over their last seven games.

Fact #2: Russell has reached 24+ points in four of his last five.


Second Pick: Clint Capela O14.5 Pts vs MIN (-118) – win

Fact #1: T-Wolves are allowing a league-high 28.5 PPG to the center position over their last seven games.

Fact #2: Capela has eclipsed 15+ in two straight.


Third Pick: Jerami Grant O22.5 Pts vs MIA (-115)

Fact #1: The Heat without Jimmy Butler have struggled to guard the SF position and thus have allowed 25 PPG to that position over their last seven.

Fact #2: Grant has reached 23+ points in five of his last six.


Fourth Pick: Pascal Siakam O7.5 rebs vs DAL (-114)

Fact #1: The Mavs are allowing 12 rebounds/game to the PF position over their last seven.

Fact #2: Siakam has eclipsed 8 rebounds in four of his last six.


Fifth Pick: Kevin Durant O29.5 Pts vs MIL (-122)

Fact #1: Durant has eclipsed 30 points in three of his last four.

Fact #2: Seems like KD’s over hits just about every night + having Harden on the court should afford him the same room to operate that he enjoyed with Kyrie, if not more.

1.9.21 Hoop Tales: Dear John (Collins) Edition

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John Collins' return won't save the Hawks this season -- because they don't need saving - CBSSports.com

Friday: 2-2 (-0.32 units)

Season: 17-23 (-8.47 units)


First Pick: John Collins O19.5 pts vs CHA (-121)

Fact #1: Collins has 20+ in three of his last five, including 23 against these same Hornets on Wednesday.

Fact #2: Hornets allow a league-high 28 PPG to the PF position over their last seven games.


Second Pick: Domantas Sabonis O19.5 pts vs PHX (-110)

Fact #1: The Suns are allowing an average of 24 PPG to the PF position over the last seven.

Fact #2: Sabonis has 20+ points in two of his last four.


Third Pick: Duncan Robinson O12.5 pts vs WAS (-105)

Fact #1: The Wizards can’t guard a parked car according to Bradley Beal.

Fact #2: The Wiz have allowed an average of 25 PPG to the two-guard position over their last seven.

1.8.21 Hoop Tales: Build (Mikal) Bridges, Not Walls Edition

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Case Study: Mikal Bridges is one of the best defenders in the NBA - Bright Side Of The Sun

Thursday: 2-2 (-0.09 units)

Season: 15-21 (-8.14 units)


First Pick: Mikal Bridges O11.5 pts vs DET (-125)

Fact #1: The Pistons allow 25.9 PPG to the small forward position this season.

Fact #2: Bridges has totaled 12+ points in five of his last six contests.


Second Pick: Zion Williamson O22.5 pts vs CHA (-130)

Fact #1: Zion has outings of 24 and 29 over his past two contests.

Fact #2: The Hornets allow an average of 25 PPG to the power forward position.


Third Pick: Bucks -6 spread vs UTA (-110)

Fact #1: Third game in four nights for Utah and they have looked bad on this road trip.

Fact #2: The Bucks are averaging 127 points per game over their last three, meanwhile the Jazz have only cracked 110 once over their last five contests.


Fourth Pick: Cole Anthony O14.5 pts vs HOU (-110)

Fact #1: Markelle Fultz is out for the season with a torn ACL.

Fact #2: Anthony reportedly won’t play Fultz-like minutes, but he shouldn’t need to do so to hit this number.

Fact #3: The Rockets allow 27.8 PPG to point guards this season.

12.31.20 Hoop Tales: 2020 Will End, but the Props Never Will Edition

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Cleveland Cavaliers vs. San Lorenzo de Almagro recap”: Darius Garland impresses in his debut - Fear The Sword

Wednesday: 0-2 (-2 units)

Season: 4-7 (-3.58 units)

Recap: The Bucks were leading by 5 with 2:20 left in the first and then surrendered an 11-0 run by the Heat to close the quarter. Elsewhere, Durant did everything against the Hawks, except cook three times from behind the arc.


First Pick: Cavs +2 1st Quarter vs IND (-109) – Loser

Fact #1: The Pacers have yet to hold a lead entering the 2nd quarter in this young season and are 0-4 ATS in the 1st quarter thus far

Fact #2: The Cavs are 3-1 ATS in the first quarter thus far


Second Pick: Darius Garland O14.5 pts vs IND (-121) – winner

Fact #1: Garland has posted 15+ points in three of four games this season

Fact #2: The Pacers are allowing an average of 28.5 points to the 2-guard position through 4 games


Third Pick: Pascal Siakam O19.5 pts vs NYK (-110)

Fact #1: I’m not stopping this “Skilled Big Man Point Total Over vs NYK” narrative until it goes ice cold. I played Drummond on my own the other night, but felt shaky about it blog wise and it didn’t hit because he didn’t get the shot attempts. So it’s like it never happened in our world.

Fact #2: Siakim dominated this matchup a season ago, posting point totals of 23 and 31 points, respectively.

Fact #3: Siakim has eclipsed 20+ points in two of three games thus far and the Knicks allow an average of 25.6 points to the PF position.


Fourth Pick: 5-Pt Teaser of Thunder +10.5/Suns +9 (+107)

Logic: The Thunder have been playing close games to start, so the points are just for comfort here against a Pelicans team off to a 2-2 start. On the other side, the Suns played the Jazz well in two meetings last season + aside from a thrashing of the Blazers to open the season, teams have kept it close with Utah out the gate

12.27.20 Hoop Tales: A (James) Wiseman Once Told Me Edition

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Hornets, Warriors reportedly 'covet' Wiseman | Yardbarker

Christmas: 1-1

Season 3-3 (-.41 units)

Recap: I’ve already found a trend that I don’t like: the 3 props I’ve incorrectly picked were the result of the player’s team playing too well. On Christmas, Jrue Holiday and company had no reason to play the 4th quarter, ending at 12 points in 25 minutes. It happened on Opening Night with Joe Harris and Kawhi Leonard, too. If only I could predict the potential blowout…

First Pick: James Wiseman O12.5 Pts vs CHI (-134)

Fact #1: The Bulls are allowing 23.5 points per game to the Center position early on.

Fact #2: Wiseman broke out the 3-point shot on Christmas, which is only going to give him more shot opportunities.

Fact #3: Wiseman has posted 19 and 18 points, respectively in his first two games against Brooklyn and Milwaukee, which feature better defensive big men than Chicago.

Fact #4: Draymond Green remains out, which just gives Wiseman more looks in Golden State’s offensive sets.


Second Pick: Kyrie Irving O2.5 Made 3Pters vs CHA (-120)

Fact #1: Irving has posted 3-pt made totals of 4 (vs GSW) and 7 (vs BOS) through two games.

Fact #2: There are no other facts. Brooklyn has the spacing right now to get any shot they want and we should ride the waves until given a reason not to.


Third Pick is a 5-pt Teaser: Nets -5.5/Bucks -7.5 (-104)

Fact #1: Both teams are catching their opponents on the second half of back-to-back sets. The Hornets lost a last-second shot against the Thunder, while the Knicks were beat by the Sixers.

Fact #2: Both of these teams have put up big point totals to start (124.0 per game an 129.5, respectively). Not having the freshest of legs, I don’t see neither the Hornets, nor the Knicks keeping up by the time this game reaches the 4th quarter.

Gridiron Tales Week 16: Thy Rod and Thy (Matthew) Stafford, They Comfort Me Edition

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Last Week: 4-2

Season: 24-13

Recap: After a disappointing start with the Saturday games, DeAndre Hopkins and Rashard Higgins provided us with a 3-0 Sunday/Monday bounce back.


Today’s Pick: Matthew Stafford O23.5 completions vs TB (-112)

Fact #1: Tampa has allowed the 4th-most completions over the past five weeks (33.5 per game), despite only playing four games in this span.

Fact #2: Since Week 7, Teddy Bridgewater (18 in Week 10) is the only opposing QB that hasn’t reached at least 24 completions vs TB.

Fact #3: Stafford is averaging 25.3 completions over his last four, including 24+ in three of those contests.


Second Pick: Leonard Fournette O65.5 rushing yards vs DET (-118)

Fact #1: The Bucs are again without Ronald Jones.

Fact #2: Over the last three weeks, the Lions have allowed David Montgomery (72), Aaron Jones (69) and Derrick Henry (147) to all eclipse 65 rushing yards.

Fact #3: Fournette turned 14 rushes in 49 yards and two scores last week against a much better run defense in Atlanta, so one can reasonably assume he reaches his total against a struggling run defense.

Hoop Tales: Christmas is a (Jrue) Holiday Worth Celebrating Edition

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Wednesday: 2-0

Season: 2-2 (-0.32 units)

Recap: Domantas Sabonis reminded us that PFs are going to continue to give the Knicks trouble this year and Rudy Gobert showed the world why he deserved that contract extension. It’s a nice feeling when both player props cash well before the 4th quarter.

First Christmas Pick: Jrue Holiday O16.5 points vs GSW (-120)

Fact #1: Holiday’s Bucks’ debut went well: 25 points on 10-of-16 shooting against a defensive-minded Celtics team.

Fact #2: The Warriors are not a defensive-minded team with this supporting cast around Steph, especially with Draymond being ruled out again today.

Fact #3: Warriors surrendered 26 points to Kyrie Irving in just over 25 minutes of play. Holiday’s only worry in this game is how much he plays in the second half because of the potential rout that could happen early.

Second Christmas Pick: Nets -1 1st quarter vs BOS (-110)

Fact #1: “The preseason doesn’t matter” but the Nets treated it like a real game and blitzed the Celtics out the gate prior to their season opener against Golden State.

Fact #2: The Nets were +15 in the first quarter of their season opener against the Warriors — a quarter in which Steph Curry played all 12 minutes.

Fact #3: In Boston’s season opener against Milwaukee — a solid offense in their own right, but not at Brooklyn’s level — they trailed by three after the first quarter. Boston also ranked 21st in 1st quarter scoring a season ago (26.9)

Fact #4: Kyrie is hopefully going to sage the building (again!) and the Nets are going to back him in a game that we all know he really wants to win.


12.23.20 Hoop Tales: The Rockets Ruin A Good Thing Edition

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Record: 0-2 (-2 units)

Tuesday Recap: Kawhi needed 26 shots to reach 26 points and we lost by the hook. On the East Coast, the Nets played “too well” and it forced Joe Harris to get rest for most of the second half. Mind you he had 6 points after the first quarter and finished with 10 — a bucket shy of his over.

I just want to preface these picks with a quick mention that I had amazing reasons to play Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s O22.5 points tonight against the Rockets, including an excuse to use a “Hamilton” gif and the Rockets ruined this opportunity.


First Pick: Domantas Sabonis O18.5 Pts (-121) vs NYK

Fact #1: Sabonis faced the Knicks 3x last season totaling 19, 25 and 24 points respectively.

Fact #2: The Knicks’ front court is returning both Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson, which are matchups that Sabonis took advantage of last season.


Second Pick: Rudy Gobert O13.5 Pts (-117) vs POR

Fact #1: In three meeting last season, Gobert totaled 16, 6 and 16 respectively.

Fact #2: Subtract: Hassan Whiteside (Sac-Town)… Add: Enes Kanter back in Portland and you have a recipe for success

Fact #3: Jusuf Nurkić will reportedly be a minutes restriction (20), which means more Kanter, which means Gobert should get easy looks at the rim.