Tag: Alex Speier

Today is the Trade Deadline, Lets Look at Where the Red Sox Currently Stand

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The MLB trade deadline is today at 4 pm and the last place Red Sox are in full blown sell mode. I wrote last week about how this team doesn’t need to completely blow it up and trade cornerstones like Xander Boagerts, but it’s hard to predict what the team will do since it’s Chaim Bloom’s first deadline as the guy in charge. Lets take a look at what they’ve already done, what could be in the works, and what Sox fans might actually have to look forward to.

Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree Traded to the Phillies

Crowned the Red Sox closer heading into the season, the team just never really needed Workman because they were so bad there were rarely many save opportunities. Usually the team was getting blown out long before the final frame so Workman only had seven appearances before getting dealt. Both players were in contract years so the deal makes sense for a basement team. In return the Red Sox received 27-year-old RHP Nick Pivetta and 23-year-old RHP Connor Seabold.

Pivetta is a 6’5″ 220 pound former 4th round draft pick of the Nationals, who actually traded Pivetta to the Phillies in 2015 for Jonathan Papelbon. Pivetta was a starter for the Phillies and flashed at times with his “front of the rotation potential,” but was pretty up and down before getting relegated to the bullpen so he’s a buy low candidate that the Sox are smart to take the chance on.

Seabold has never pitched higher than AA, but had a 2.25 ERA last season in the Eastern League and was a 3rd round pick for the Phillies in 2017 so this is a solid prospect to get back.

Mitch Moreland Traded to the Padres

Moreland was an excellent role player for the Red Sox over the last 2+ seasons, making his lone All-Star team in 2018 as the Sox battered everyone en route to a World Series title (including a clutch pinch hit 3 run HR in Game 4). He was having an even better season this year hitting .328 with 8 home runs and 21 RBIs in just 22 games. Although he was limited by injuries last year, Moreland was a legit power bat for the Sox hitting 15 home runs in 2018 and then 19 in 2019 even though he had 124 less plate appearances. So its a bummer to see him go, but he was essentially a victim of his own success while the Sox transitioned to a rebuild.

In return for Moreland the Sox received outfielder Jeisson Rosario and infielder Hudson Potts. Potts is a 21-year-old 3B and was actually the 24th overall pick just four years ago so there is a pedigree there. Rosario is a 20-year-old outfielder that hasn’t played above A ball yet so this guy is a ways off from the big leagues. You can read the scouting reports of the two players via MassLive, but keep in mind Potts and Rosario were just the Padre’s No. 17 and No. 28 ranked prospects according to Baseball America.

The Moreland trade did however clear the way for Bobby Dalbec, the Red Sox’ No. 3 ranked prospect according to MLB.com, who hit a dinger in his major league debut.

Trade Rumors Surrounding Christian Vazquez

I think this would be a mistake because he is a player on a cheap contract at a premium position with elite defense and pretty good power. Although he is a bit older than I realized at 30-years-old, but he’s an energy guy that I think the Sox would be wise to keep around.

Trade Rumors Around Xander, JD Martinez, Jackie Bradley Jr, Andrew Benintendi, Nathan Eovaldi

I wrote about this the other day and I think Bogaerts should be untouchable, but you never know. The other guys I would listen to offers on, but the hottest Benintendi rumors were focused on a deal with Cleveland for Mike Clevinger, who they just traded to San Diego. So maybe none of these guys get dealt, but we’ll see today.

Joey B also pointed out the Sox are also exploring a potential trade/salary dump of Eovaldi.

Red Sox Draft Position

This is about the only thing for Red Sox fans to be excited about these days. With the 3rd worst record in ALL of baseball and just 2 games better than the Pirates for the worst record, the Sox are in play for potentially the No. 1 overall pick next year. Due to a myriad of reasons the Sox could potentially finish with the worst record and still not get the top pick, which would be the most 2020 thing ever, but it’s fun to daydream about the most likely No. 1 overall pick pitching at Fenway, Vanderbilt flamethrower Kumar Rocker.

Luxury Tax Reset Day

Finally and probably the most exciting thing to come out of this shit season is that by getting through today the Red Sox officially (kinda/sort) have their luxury tax penalties reset. This means the Sox have had to dump Mookie Betts, David Price and endure this disastrous season, but by doing so have climbed out of the hell zone that because of gigantic tax penalties would have kept John Henry from making any big moves for YEARS.

Red Sox Are Nearing Extension With Chris Sale

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I love this move for the Red Sox. Granted Chris Sale has had his injury concerns the past two seasons, he has still been hands down the best pitcher on the roster and a Cy Young front runner the past two seasons. David Price turned things around last year and was excellent in the ALCS and World Series, but I would still feel a whole lot more comfortable with a savage like Chris Sale as my ace on the mound. 5 years $150 Million is a bargain at this point too, which speaks to Sale preferring comfort over maximizing every last dollar, which is even more impressive having been on team friendly deals his whole career. Sale hasn’t been shy about telling people how much he loves playing in Boston so this deal makes a ton of sense for both sides. Assuming he stays healthy its a steal for the Sox, but if he does get hurt a 5 year contract won’t totally sink the team like an 8 or 10 year deal would.

Just 8 days shy of his 30th birthday too so the Red Sox can stick to their “we don’t sign pitchers over 30” shtick too if they want, which as we all know lost them Jon Lester. Win win for everyone!

I do think this brings us one step closer to the end of the Mookie Betts era in Boston though. The timing is just too perfect. Maybe the Sox saw the recent deals signed by Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, made one last pitch to Mookie, got rejected and turned to the next guy in line due to get paid; Chris Sale. If you believe the reports the Sox have tried to negotiate long term deals with Betts in the past including an 8 year $200 Million offer last year that he turned down. Now with Trout signing a 12 year $430 Million extension just the other day you would think thats what Mookie will be looking for, assuming he keeps up his MVP-level performance over the next two seasons.

I would think the Red Sox could realistically have three $30 Million players on their roster. David Price is one (albeit the first year of Mookie’s new deal would be the last year of Price’s contract), this new contract would make Chris Sale two, and then the Sox would likely need to pick between Mookie and Xander Bogaerts. I just don’t see this team paying Xander $200+ Million and then Mookie $400+ Million.

So the Sox can go one of two ways: double down on the next two years and maximize your time with Mookie, Xander, Chris Sale, David Price, JD Martinez and co. or privately admit that you have no intentions of paying Mookie half a billion dollars in the near future and sell high for a boatload of prospects. This is the Boston Red Sox though so I can’t see them trading away a homegrown MVP player in his prime because they’re worried about footing the bill. And its not my checkbook so I’ll be fine if they extend him tomorrow, but I would probably be wary of signing a 5’9″ 180 lbs guy with two 30 HR seasons under his belt to a $400+ Million contract. He’d still only be 28 when he hits free agency in two years, but a 12 year deal puts him into his Age 40 season and I don’t want any part of the back-9 on that deal for any player.

I think we all know which direction Dave “trade every prospect who ever sniffed a Top 100 list” Dombrowski is going to lean though. We’re riding this baby into the ground so hopefully the Sox can reel off another World Series or two before Dealer Dave rides off into the sunset.

 

Red Sox Have Re-signed Nathan Eovaldi

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WEEI – The Red Sox are reportedly nearing a deal with free agent right-hander Nathan Eovaldi on a four-year contract that could be worth nearly $70 million…Eovaldi, 28, was a tremendous find at the trade deadline, going 3-3 with a 3.33 ERA after arriving from Tampa, and then following it up with a dominating postseason that saw him go 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA. He delivered one of the signature performance of the playoffs, even though it ended in defeat, when he tossed six innings of three-hit relief in an 18-inning loss to the Dodgers in Game 3 of the World Series.

While the terms of the deal are still unknown, most of the big baseball writers have been speculating 4 years at $70 million, which is $17.5 per year. It might sound like a lot for a guy who was a midseason pickup that had a really strong second half and an incredible playoff run, but I’m totally on board with this move. The Red Sox needed Nathan Eovaldi for this upcoming season, but more importantly for the next few years.

The Red Sox rotation is stacked, but is also top heavy and comprised of expensive guys in contract years. Chris Sale has had his last 2 seasons start off incredible only to stumble down the stretch due to injuries and is a free agent after this upcoming season. Are the Red Sox prepared to give him a $200 Million contract? I’m not so sure. Rick Porcello is also in a walk year and while he’s had his ups and downs over the years, he will be a 30-year-old free agent with a Cy Young Award under his belt next winter so don’t expect him to come cheap. That leaves the Red Sox with David Price, who has ranged from trainwreck to solid to elite so your guess is as good as mine for what to expect, but Price is signed for the next four years at least. After that the Sox are left with Eduardo Rodriguez, who seems to miss extended time with injuries every year, and a bunch of Triple-A pitchers.

Simply put, the Sox need someone to anchor this staff alongside David Price beyond just next season.

So the Sox needed to make this move. I’m less concerned with Eovaldi’s injury history as I am with projecting future performance. Even though he’s had two Tommy John surgeries, as we’ve said here before; that’s basically a prerequisite to being a great starting pitcher these days. Alex Speier dove a little deeper on that issue:

“The idea that a two-time Tommy John recipient could be seen as something other than an extreme risk illustrates how drastically the landscape has changed over the last decade…the chief risk appears to be whether a pitcher returns to his prior level from a second Tommy John surgery. There is a survival effect. Roughly 20-25 percent of pitchers never make it back from a first or second Tommy John, but those who do appear at no greater risk than other pitchers who hadn’t undergone even a single Tommy John procedure.”

Would I be shocked to see Eovaldi’s performance regress back to the mean next year though? No I would not. But at 4 years this deal is a drop in the bucket for John Henry and the Red Sox. Dave Dombrowski loved what he saw, primarily because Eovaldi saved his bacon and the Boston bullpen en route to a World Series title. Now Dealer Dave likely smells blood and sees a ripe opportunity for the Sox to repeat (and clinch Dombrowski’s spot in the Hall of Fame) so why pinch pennies now? Welcome back to Boston, Nate.

Eduardo Rodriguez Out 6 Months With…Wait for it….a Knee Injury!

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When the Red Sox first acquired Eduardo Rodriguez in 2014 from the Orioles in the Andrew Miller trade it was deemed a steal for a half season rental of Miller. (Side note: the Red Sox do not get ANY credit for legitimately rebuilding Andrew Miller from the Florida Marlins/Detroit Tigers castoff failed starter that he was to the dominant, lights out bullpen weapon that he is.) E-Rod started off his career lights out going 10-6 with a 3.85 ERA at just 22 years old, but has been routinely derailed by injuries since then.

Seriously, take a look at the number of starts he’s made each season since the Red Sox acquired him.

  • 2015: 21
  • 2016: 20
  • 2017: 24

Not exactly workhorse type stuff. I mean E-Rod is still only making $500K a year so its not a huge financial burden, but in the same vein as Clay Buchholz you need to be able to rely on a guy to make the majority of his starts. Especially when that guy has the ability to be your No. 3 starter. Hopefully this horrific sounding “knee ligament reconstruction” that the Red Sox are describing it as helps get his knee back to where it needs to be. Otherwise break out the duct tape and bubblegum.