Tag: Betting

The Gamblers Guide to Betting on the Celtics and the Atlantic Division This Year

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So we’re two weeks into the 2019-20 NBA season and the Celtics are a solid 4-1 with wins over the Knicks (twice), the Raptors, and an incredible comeback win over the Bucks. Their only loss came on opening night to the Sixers, made worse by the sight of Al Horford in a Philly jersey. The Celtics look like they’ll be a pretty good team made better possibly with addition by subtraction. Kemba Walker looks like a match made in heaven as a guy who can drop 30 a night, yet is more than happy to pass up a last shot to blossoming superstars like Jayson Tatum.

What made that Tatum game winner even better was that it was the exact same play that the Celtics ran in Orlando last year leading to Kyrie throwing a fit on the court for not getting the ball. Oh and Kyrie continues to be an absolute PILL in New Jersey, memorialized by Jackie MacMullan’s great piece last week. Enjoy the ride, Nets fans.

Now for the most important part: the gambling.  Its a little early to overreact one way or the other and the Celtics’ unlikely come from behind double digit win over the Bucks probably skews things a little bit. But pick your spots with this C’s team and you could make some decent cash as they continue to surprise people.

  • Philadelphia 76ers
    • ESPN Projected Finish: 57-27, 2nd in the East
    • Key Storylines: Addition of Al Horford, Finally Getting Over the Hump, Overcoming Lack of Depth
    • 5-0 Against the Spread

The Sixers took their biggest weakness last year, a lack of bench depth, and doubled down on it. They lost Jimmy Butler and JJ Reddick, but picked up big man Al Horford to pair with Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. The Sixers have arguably the best starting 5 in the league, but the end of the bench is pretty barren yet again. With that being said they are 5-0 and the current No. 1 seed in the East so while they don’t have much margin for error, they are one of the most talented squads in the league.

  • Boston Celtics
    • ESPN Projected Finish: 48-34, 3rd in the East
    • Key Storylines: Loss of Kyrie Irving and Al Horford, Addition of Kemba Walker, Addition by Subtraction, Jayson Tatum the All-Star
    • 3-2 ATS

If the Celtics are going to go anywhere this year its going to largely be due to Jayson Tatum. Sure Kemba Walker is the latest max free agent in town and Jaylen Brown just got PAID, but this team needs Tatum to become an elite wing player this season if they want to do some damage. I’ve been predicting big things for Tatum despite a less than stellar second season. So far this season he looks excellent averaging 22 PPG while shooting 40% from the field, an impressive 48% from three and an abysmal 75% from the line. Along with Pascal Siakam, Tatum was voted by ESPN as the most likely player to make their first All-Star team in the East, both earning 68.2% of the votes. With Tatum and likely Kemba making the All-Star team, an improved Brown, a finally looking like a basketball player again Gordon Hayward, and All-World defense from Marcus Smart, this team could be in business. As we seem to say every year since KG and Perk left town, the Celtics will need someone to step up as a rim protector/rebounder/big man presence. Whether thats Enes Kanter, Daniel Theis or Robert Williams evolving into the role, the C’s will need someone to step up if they want to compete with the Sixers.

  • Brooklyn Nets
    • ESPN Projected Finish: 45-37, 5th in the East
    • Key Storylines: Addition of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, Kyrie Still a Pill
    • 2-4 ATS

This will be a much safer bet next season when Kevin Durant returns to the court, assuming he’s healthy, but in the meantime they will be a fun team to watch. Despite all his bizarre antics and issues with the media, Kyrie Irving remains one of the most electric one on one players in the league. While thats not necessarily the best path to winning a title, it definitely will steal the Nets some games they have no business winning.

  • Toronto Raptors
    • ESPN Projected Finish: 45-37, 6th in the East
    • Key Storylines: Defending Champs, Loss of Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, Growth of Pascal Siakam
    • 4-2 ATS

Man what a roller coaster ride 2019 has been for Drizzy Drake’s favorite squad. Sorry let me clarify, I meant Drake’s hometown team the Raptors not his other favorite squad the Golden State Warriors. Winning their first title behind a Herculean effort from Kawhi Leonard solidifying his spot as the best player in the NBA…to Kawhi walking away and now defending their title with Pascal Siakam and not much else. Siakam was voted by ESPN as the co-favorite to earn their first time All-Star bid in the East. Its hard to be mad as the defending champs, but they went from the favorites (especially with a rapidly imploding Warriors team) to a team that will be scrapping for a bottom half seed in the East this year.

  • New York Knicks
    • ESPN Projected Finish: 26-56, 13th in the East
    • Key Storylines: ….lottery picks and 2020 Free Agency?
    • 1-6 ATS

If you bet real, actual, American dollars on the New York Knicks then you are on your own. Sure Marcus Morris is great to watch when he’s on, but you are banking on the latest iteration of James Dolan’s madness here. Maybe if you get them in a parlay, but other than that I cannot advise gambling on this dumpster fire.

So to wrap it up, who has the best shot at winning the division? Lets not get ahead of ourselves and ask who’s going to take down LeBron and the Lakers or Kawhi and the Clippers in the Finals quite yet. As of late October, the Sixers had become -200 favorites to win the Atlantic, improving from -160 on opening night. The Celtics remained the second-favorite, but were well back at +420, only a shade ahead of the new-look Raptors at +490 with all odds via Sports Betting Dime. Expect those odds to be a little closer together when they’re updated next. Boston’s impressive 116-105 win over the 60-win Bucks made a statement that Brad Stevens’ team is going to be a tough out this year.

I LOVE the Celtics at +420 to win the division. Sure that means catching the Sixers and winning 50+ games, who ESPN has them finishing 9 games behind, but those are odds to bet on. The Sixers at -160 is almost even money and forget it if Embiid misses time with the annual injury or load management concerns. The Raptors feel pretty unlikely to leapfrog both Boston and Philly so I’m not sold on them, and I think this season is a holding pattern for Brooklyn and yet another rebuilding year for the Knicks. So slap down some cash on the Celtics and enjoy the ride.

The 300s Bloggers’ Fantasy Football Round Up – Week 1

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Hey Everybody,

So I am going to start posting this every week. An opportunity for you the reader  to both revel and commiserate with your favorite (Me, maybe Big Z) or least favorite (Bills Fan) 300s blogger. So without further or do……….

Papa Giorgio
(Joey B’s Note: PG’s starting quarterback IRL is Nathan Peterman)

“Two words: Total Domination. Was it easy? No. Did I almost throw up blood when Aaron Rodgers was carted off the field with a knee injury? You betcha! Someone I managed to come out of week one 3-0 in all my leagues combined. As someone who does not take fantasy football too seriously, it was a nice start to what inevitably will be a horrifying, disastrous finish.”

Big Z

“I kept Le’Veon Bell in My keeper league. I picked up James Conner as his handcuff, but played Devonta Freeman instead in Week 1. Figured Pittsburgh had lots of other weapons, and might not lean too heavily on the second year player. Conner outscored Freeman by a cool 28 points, as I lost my Week 1 matchup by 12.”

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Joey B

I had a solid, straightforward week 1 win. I only do one team because I honestly just can’t keep track of more than one. Team-wise, I grabbed Gronk in the first because it’s smart and I picked up/started James Connor because the Steelers have relied heavily on the run since Lincoln still had the back of his head. The only thing grinding my gears a bit is that I lost out on the league high score for the week because rather than having even an underwhelming, sub-average game Matthew Stafford shat the bed completely. Oh well, 1-0.

Now we get to the absolute novels written by Red and MATTES GOOOODDDAMN. Asked these guys for a blurb on their fantasy football week and I got Will Hunting’s thesis on the market economy in the southern colonies.

Red

“Ya know, I was initially pretty upset about accidentally drafting Matt Stafford in the 8th round because time ran out on my pick, but now? Well now I’m fucking furious. Thats what I get for playing chicken with the Yahoo fantasy football draft pick timer.

I won a fantasy league I was in with Donovan McNabb as my QB that I picked up in like the 15th round. It was his last year in Philly and his last year as a productive NFL starter, which was perfect for me. Drafting a QB late has been my template ever since. Welp, not this year.

Sure you could attribute my opening day loss to lack of preparation (I didn’t buy an $11 draft magazine this year) or the fact that I continue to rely on Seahawks running backs not named Marshawn Lynch prior to 2015, but I prefer to point out that Matthew Stafford threw 4 picks in the same week Alvin Kamara dropped 38 points on me.

Here’s to hoping Sam Darnold continues to do just what I had hoped and throw the ball to my sleeper pick, Quincy Enunwa, more than anyone else on the Jets. Quincy had 10 targets last night compared to 11 for the rest of the team combined.

On my bench, of course.

Goddamnit, why do I play this game?”

 

Mattes

“I tell ya, it really sucks to be 0-2 after just one week of football. BOTH sqauds lost this weekend, and neither matchup was close in either league. Even worse is the fact I was expected to be the week’s high-scorer in my full-point PPR league – with guys like Larry Fitz, Michael Thomas, David Johnson, and Jarvis Landy – but only two of those guys actually showed up. There was a few fleeting minutes of hope in my matchup against our very own Papa Giorgio, when Aaron Rodgers looked like he was about to be placed on the shelf for the second straight season. But alas, the legend came back and put up another THIRTY-TWO points to crush my Week 1 dreams. Although, with Amari Cooper putting up two whole points on Monday night, maybe it wouldn’t have mattered anyway. It also didn’t help to have the Saints defense in both leagues, who fell victim to some serious FitzMagic and blew chunks in their home opener. In one league, the got me -4, and the other they got me -8.

So I literally would’ve been better off not even starting a D/ST this week. COOL. I did have one particular Saints player, though, who went absolutely BANANAS, catching 16 balls for 180 yards and a score; his name is Michael Thomas, as previously mentioned, and I’m glad I snagged him for the second year in a row. Jordan Howard and Carlos Hyde look like a decent back pairing in one league, but David Johnson and Alex Collins didn’t live up to expectations in the other. Hopefully Kerryon Johnson, my sneaky pick for Rookie of the Year, takes the job away from a hopefully-washed-up LeGarrette Blount and serves as a solid No. 3 behind Howard and Hyde. And if Rex Burkhead ends up being the Patriots offensive MVP, as I predicted in the Pats preview podcast, I could be OK in my other league, too. Russell Wilson also proved he’s matchup-proof, putting up over 30 against a nasty Broncos D. Philip Rivers and Kirk Cousins look like a solid pairing in my two-QB league as well, so I’m not getting too down after the first week. It can only go up from here…right?”

Robert Kraft Keeps His Stake in DraftKings as They Transition to Sports Book. Umm, Why Wouldn’t He?

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ESPN – Two prominent NFL owners have a stake in a bookmaker as the first season with expanded legal sports betting in the U.S. gets ready to kick off.

New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft and Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones have retained their investments in DraftKings, sources confirmed to ESPN, even as the company has shifted some of its focus from daily fantasy to traditional sports betting.

Umm yea, no kidding. Robert Kraft is no dummy. He realizes that his family stands to potentially make more money with DraftKings and legalized gambling than they could ever hope to make running a football team. While some want to straddle the fence as gambling is seen as “seedy” it is actually on the verge of being legalized in every state in the country. I can literally see the Everett casino being built from my office window in Boston.

“The NFL has been a staunch opponent of sports betting for decades and remains concerned about its impact on the integrity of the game. The NFL fought New Jersey’s efforts to offer Las Vegas-style sports betting all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court.”

…..because they weren’t getting a cut of the action. The NFL was more than happy to promote and advertise “fake” gambling in the form of fantasy football over the past 15 years because it drove billions of dollars back into the NFL.

Now? Like a bookie, they want the juice on the action.

So for Kraft or Jerry Jones to cut bait now, just because DraftKings changed their position (and millions of dollars of lawyer fees arguing) from “We are NOT gambling” to now saying “um forget all that, we are NOW a sports book” is crazy. DK is going to only become exponentially more valuable with the influx of legalized gambling and I can imagine Kraft didn’t just buy a handful of shares. A guy like that jumped in with both feet and realizes how much money his family could earn in the long run. Thats a smart guy right there.

Also, I will never forget the look of disappointment in Papa Giorgi’s eyes when I told him that Robert Kraft did not actually earn his fortune running the Kraft Macaroni and Cheese empire, rather he made his money in paper products. It was like telling a kid theres no Santa Claus.

Richard Sherman is Launching His Own Daily Fantasy Sports Site

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ESPN – San Francisco 49ers cornerback Richard Sherman is entering the daily fantasy sports business. Sherman announced Thursday that his new fantasy site, Daily Number, will be launching paid contests in 23 states. Sherman is the co-founder, along with CEO Tom McAuley, and will be the chief brand ambassador, appearing in an upcoming video ad campaign.

While many NFL stars have endorsed fantasy sites, Sherman is believed to be one of the first, if not the first, to have a founding stake in a fantasy game.

I don’t know if now is the best time to just be getting into the daily fantasy business if you’re a competitor, but Richard Sherman’s a smart dude so I’ll give his new venture, Daily Number, a shot.

I try not to shoot down these equity based deals athletes sign and give it a chance first. Not because of how great or not their company is, but because of the power of branding.

Just look at Kobe Bryant and the sports drink he invested in, BodyArmor. If you asked me what BodyArmor was a few years ago I would have had no idea. If you showed me a bottle I would have said “oh right its that bootleg sports drink they sell at gas stations.”

Well Kobe’s magic branding powers touched BodyArmor, along with his $6 million investment, and less than 5 years later that investment is worth $200 MILLION. Good for him, Kobe really needed it.

So my point is, it doesn’t matter how big the competition is, there’s always room for the new guy on the block.

“Daily Number features a unique twist on traditional fantasy, with entrants creating seven-player rosters that attempt to eclipse a predetermined total amount of fantasy points, set by the site and known as the “daily number.” Each roster is given a rating. The more superstars on a roster the lower the payout is for teams that score more points than the daily number.”

The idea behind Sherman’s daily fantasy site is that instead of picking players based on monetary values like you do with DraftKings or Fan Duel, you pick a team of 7 players. Its like a middle ground between daily fantasy and regular fantasy football leagues, which is actually kind of smart. I don’t really mess with DK too much because I feel like I’m just getting hustled by algorithms and MIT math nerds. Sherman’s venture could provide the best of both worlds and help dummies like me feel, probably incorrectly, that they have a shot at winning some cash on daily fantasy.

I can’t imagine the NFL is thrilled with one of its most prominent players being a founding member of a company thats sole purpose is to gamble on games he is actively playing in. It would be hard for a cornerback to have a huge effect on someone’s fantasy day with thousands of different lineups running all at the same time, but it sure as shit won’t be hard for someone to poke holes in it.

Either way you know the commercials for this thing is gonna be dynamite with an older Richard Sherman who gives even less of a fuck what the NFL thinks about what he says or does. So you got me Richard, I’ll try it.