It feels so good to be back. I took Week 1 “off” from making official picks because I didn’t want to write prop suggestions based on feelings because I’m a stats and research kind of guy. Week 1 was enough of a sample size + I’ll very much utilize player history where applicable.
First Pick: Dak Prescott O26.5 completions at LAC (-105)
Fact #1: In 5 full games under Mike McCarthy, Dak’s completion totals are: 25, 34, 37, 14 and 42 last week.
Fact #2: At 55 points, this is the highest O/U this week, so points are expected to come early and often.
Second Pick: Jalen Hurts O19.5 completions vs SF (-130)
Fact #1: In 4 full games as the starter, Hurts has compiled completion totals of 17, 24, 21 and 27 last week.
Fact #2: This is a 9ers team that let Jared Goff and the Lions creep back into last week’s Game with 38 completions on 57 attempts.
Third Pick: David Montgomery O63.5 rush yards vs CIN (-120)
Fact #1: In Week 1, Montgomery turned 16 carries into 108 yards and a score vs a Rams team that did not allow a 100-yard rusher all last season.
Fact #2: I know the Bengals held Dalvin Cook to 61 rush yards on 20 carries, but no one believes Cincy is on the same defensive playing field as the Rams.
Fourth Pick: Chris Carson O68.5 rush yards vs TEN (-115)
Fact #1: Carson turned 16 carries into 91 yards against the Colts, who allowed the third-fewest rushing yards to RBs last season.
Fact #2: In Week 1, the Titans allowed 53 rush yards to James Conner and 63 to Chase Edmonds. With Rashad Penny out, that’s even more breathing room for Carson to take more of the rushing attempts.
Fifth Pick: Christian McCaffrey O6.5 receptions vs NOLA (+105)
Fact #1: CMC caught all nine of his targets vs the Jets.
Fact #2: In 6 career games vs Nola, his reception totals are 9, 5, 8, 1, 9 and 7. New head coach, but the feeding doesn’t look like it will stop.
The Pats pulled out the 38-31 victory in Chicago yesterday, but that was only after the Bears put up a great fight and almost came through with a miracle play at the very last possible moment.
The game ended up being a lot more high-scoring than I anticipated, but it was almost just as close. While they were able to contain most of the Bears’ weapons throughout much of the day, Mitchell Trubisky did post over 400 yards of total offense by himself – looking like Michael freakin’ Vick in his prime at times – and the defense allowed a lot of yards over the middle of the field.
Overall, though, it was a good performance against a still very underrated team. Here are a few postgame tidbits for you to wash down with your Wheaties on this fine Monday morning.
Say It Ain’t So, Sony!
After a string of very impressive performances for the rookie, I cautioned everyone to temper expectations heading into Sunday’s contest against the Bears’ top-10-rated run defense. Michel made me look foolish by ripping off 18 yards on his first carry of the day (although he did only have four yards on three carries after that) before going down with what looked like a gruesome leg injury early in the second quarter. As of early Monday morning, we still don’t know the severity of the injury, but it definitely did not look good, especially for a guy with his injury history. More to come on this story, which should be expected after he undergoes an MRI at some point today.
(MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: So we still don’t officially know the final ruling on the injury, but we did get this from NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport on Monday:
Sources: #Patriots RB Sony Michel’s knee injury is not considered serious following his MRI. His timetable isn’t clear, but this is pretty good news for their impressive rookie runner. He still could miss time, but if he does, it may not be much.
There’s speculation it could be an MCL sprain, but thankfully NOT a tear. We probably won’t know much more until the Pats are forced to release injury updates later on in the week. For now, Pats Nation will hold its collective breath.
ANOTHER UPDATE: Schefty coming in hot with a bit more details later on in the afternoon:
MRI on Patriots’ RB Sony Michel revealed no structural damage, per source. Michel will be considered week to week, per source. Best-case scenario for Michel and Patriots.
The Pats offensive line has been phenomenal all season long, and they continued their excellent performance in the Windy City on Sunday. Although Khalil Mack was playing at less than 100 percent, they still only allowed just one sack on the day (which, by the way, Pro Football Focus blamed on a broken screen play as opposed to any particular lineman’s error [h/t NESN.com]). Shaq Mason, especially, has been playing at an elite level, and he’s certainly proving that he’s worthy of that $50 million extension he signed this offseason. If the line can play this well against one of the league’s premier defensive units, that bodes well for the durability of our elder statesman at quarterback. Big round of applause to the entire offensive line. Just a helluva job all around.
The big fella’s been one of the game’s elite so far in 2018.
Pass-Rush Continues to Improve
OK. OK. So maybe my article from a few weeks ago was a tiny bit Chicken Little-ish. While I’m certainly not going to go so far as to say the Pats have a “great” pass-rush, by any means, it’s definitely not “bad.” The team finished with two sacks in total, but were also credited with 13 hurries and three other QB hits. Adrian Clayborn finally got in on the action with his first takedown of the year, and Kyle Van Noy – while perhaps a bit lacking in terms of coverage yesterday – was able to pin his ears and get in Trubisky’s face with five pressures on the day. The team probably could have had more sacks were it not for Trubisky’s surprising elusiveness (he ran for 81 yards on the day, including this absolutely ridiculous touchdown run). Overall, I’m happy with what I’ve seen from the defensive front past two weeks.
Deatrich Wise continued his strong season yesterday with yet another QB takedown.
Other quick hits:
Josh Gordon continues to prove his worth, playing on 95 percent of the snaps and hauling in four big catches for 100 yards on the day. A few of the catches came at key, momentum-changing moments of the game, and there’s no doubt that he’s become one of Brady’s favorite weapons that he’s had in quite some time. As Julian Edelman said this weekend: “THANK YOU, CLEVELAND!!!”
Cordarrelle Patterson may not be making as much of an impact in the receiving game as many hoped he would, but his impressive 95-yard kickoff return for a score yesterday showed just how impactful he can be in other areas of the game. That vicious jump cut he made just before breaking loose literally made me go “WOOOO,” and he then continued to look like a barreling freight train the rest of the way to pay dirt. That play was the sixth kickoff return TD of his career, tied for third all time and just two behind all-time leaders Josh Cribbs and Leon Washington.
Preseason standout J.C. Jackson saw by far his most action of the season so far, playing on 38 percent of the team’s snaps. He rewarded the team for their confidence in him with a diving interception, and we could soon be seeing a lot more of out of the rookie cornerback from Maryland. Kudos, kid!
Next up is what should be an absolute cupcake of a matchup against the Buffalo Bills (sorry, Papa Giorgio) next Monday night in Foxborough. Be sure to check in on Thursday for the game preview!
Three-straight wins have fans throughout Pats Nation flying high right now. Especially after beating the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night, many might believe that this week’s opponent, the Chicago Bears, should be an absolute cake walk.
However, hubris can often taint reality, and the 3-2 Monsters of the Midway certainly ain’t no slouches. (And truthfully, they should be 4-1 after blowing an 11-point fourth-quarter lead on Sunday, ultimately losing in overtime to BROCK FREAKIN’ OSWEILER and the Miami Dolphins.)
As always, here’s a quick look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:
As I said, the Bears are no longer a pushover after four-straight years which saw them win no more than six games in a season – including a really rough 3-13 performance in 2016. In fact, many people, including myself, had them as one of the top sleeper teams for 2018.
Even before acquiring super human/mutant freak talent Khalil Mack from the Oakland Raiders just days before the season began, the Bears were already pretty solid on the defensive side of the ball. Though they finished with a 5-11 record last year, Chicago still had the league’s 10th-ranked defense and posted 42 sacks, which tied for seventh in the league. Adding Mack to the unit has vaulted them up to third in the league through five games in 2018 (they had a bye in Week 5), and their 18 sacks are good for fifth in the league. They’re also tied for second in the league in interceptions. So let’s just say Brady and the boys may not have as easy of a time moving the ball in the Windy City this weekend as they have the past couple of weeks.
Mack is one of those guy’s truly deserving of being called a “generational” talent. The man is an absolute freak of nature.
(Side note: Mack injured his ankle early on in Sunday’s loss to the Dolphins. He finished the contest but wasn’t quite as effective as the game wore on. Per the team’s website, he’s considered day-to-day and is expected to play, but perhaps he won’t be as much of a force as he typically is.)
The Bears are very talented on offense as well, and the entire unit has been opened up this year with first-year head coach Matt Nagy, an offensive whiz who helped Andy Reid run the show in Kansas City for the past two seasons. Not only has he helped fuel quarterback Mitchell Trubisky’s development tremendously, but his scheme allows for multiple guys to be involved each week, so it’s not like Belichick can simply hone in on taking away the opponent’s top weapon like he usually does.
Allen Robinson – just three year’s removed from a 1,400-yard season in Jacksonville – leads the way for the receiving corps. Speedster Taylor Gabriel has really come on lately as well, posting two-straight 100-yard performances and proving that he’s not simply just the gadget, change-of-pace player he was before coming to Chicago this season. His 27 receptions in 2018 are just nine short of his career high, which is a mark he should easily surpass within the next couple of weeks, if not sooner.
Speed has hurt the Pats this year, and Gabriel has PLENTY of it.
Also, tight end Trey Burton is an athletic piece who came over from Philly this offseason. While his 15 catches at this point are perhaps a little less than some anticipated, he’s still averaging over 13 yards per grab and can hurt you if you’re not careful. Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen form a nice thunder-and-lighting combo out of the backfield as well, with the former being more of a grinder and Cohen being the electric, do-it-all wildcard who’s totaled 295 yards (!) of offense over the last two games.
(FIRE FLAMESALERT 🔥🔥🔥: Cohen is going to go bananas in this game. Again, not only has the guy compiled almost 300 yards of offense on just 32 touches the past two games – averaging out to 9.2 yards per touch – but only four teams have given up more receiving yards to opposing running backs this season than the Pats (349). Everyone thought Howard was going to be the No. 1 guy in the offense for the Bears this year – much to the chagrin of his fantasy owners, which includes yours truly – but Cohen is looking like he might take the job from him outright.)
He might be little (5’6″, 179 pounds), but don’t let his size fool you; the kid is a baller.
Back to Trubisky. After a pretty lackluster showing through 12 games as a rookie last year – a year in which he completed just 59 percent of his passes for 2,193 yards with seven scores and seven picks – he’s made quite the leap so far in 2018. Not only is he completing a very healthy 70 percent of his tosses, but his 11-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio is also pretty solid. He also threw SIX touchdowns in Week 4 against Tampa Bay. (To be fair, I think I could probably get at least one or two against the Bucs this season, as their defense is simply atrocious. But what Trubisky did is still impressive nonetheless.) And he’s averaged over 32 yards a game on the ground this season, with 100 rushing yards over the past two games alone, so he can get it done with his legs as well.
Mitchy’s looking like he might be worth that high draft price after all.
This team is extremely balanced, and they’ve got enough on both sides of the ball to keep up with the Pats in this one.
Storylines
(Continue to Keep Brady Clean): The Pats have done a very nice job of protecting Brady so far this year, surrendering just eight sacks in total so far. Considering they’ve faced the likes of Houston, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis – all teams with 15-plus sacks already – that is extremely impressive. Add in the fact that Tommy Boy is no spring chicken and may not be quite as nimble as he once was, and it’s definitely a stat the O-lineman can hang their hats on. As mentioned above, the Bears are tied for fifth in the league with 18 QB takedowns this year, and Mack is an absolute demon to be reckoned with (although his ankle could slow him down a bit this week). Trent Brown and the rest of the boys up front should have their hands full again in this one.
(Michel and White to Face First Real Test): The Bears are the first top-10 run defense that Pats rookie Sony Michel will face this year, as he didn’t play in the team’s season-opener against the Texans, and they’ll be just the second for James White. Michel’s tough running style should allow him to at least grind out the clock if the Pats have the lead and maybe get a goal line score, but don’t expect much from White on Sunday. Not only do I expect White’s ball-carrying opportunities to be scaled back this week, but the Bears also only allow 25.6 receiving yards out of the backfield per game. The Bears also haven’t allowed even one rushing touchdown so far this season. Brady’s going to need to get it done through the air this week.
Love ya, James, but I don’t think this is gonna be your week, bud.
Prediction
Both teams get off to a slow start, with each of them only scoring around 10 points by halftime. Due to the physical, old-school nature of the game, the defense wears down a bit on each side in the second half. This will allow for a couple nice drives from the Pats and one or two big plays from the Bears (see: Gabriel, Taylor and Cohen, Tarik) later in the game. In the end, this one will be close, with the Pats eeking out a 24-20 victory.
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The 300s 