Tag: Chris Hogan

Top Patriots Fantasy Football Players for 2018

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Not only have we officially reached the most important week of the NFL preseason, but these next two weeks also mark perhaps the most important time of the year as a fantasy football owner. Unless you are a masochist that likes to watch one of your top draft picks blow out a knee in the preseason Week 3 dress rehearsal, or see one of your “sleepers” get the pink slip before final cuts are even made, there is no way you should have had your fantasy draft by now.

If you’re like me, you’ve got your draft scheduled for one of the next two weekends – I’ve actually got one draft on each of the next two Sundays – and if you haven’t been doing your homework by now…well, quite frankly you’re screwed.

There are also plenty of other ways to screw yourself before the season even begins. (For more examples of such, check out Red and Big Z’s “Fantasy Football Follies” podcast from last week.)

But perhaps one of the biggest ways to hurt yourself, other than drafting too early, is being too much of a homer. Look, nobody loves the Pats more than me – which I’m sure you could all tell by now – but you’ll see me donning Jets gear before I even think about drafting any Patriot besides Gronk within the first two or three rounds.

Do NOT be this person:

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Great show. AWFUL approach.

Still, I will admit that, yes, it is fun to have some of your hometown heroes on your squad, and I’m not saying you can’t make that happen. You just have to make sure you do it the right way, and ONLY IF the cards fall in your favor.

So, for all my fellow Pats fans out there, here’s a quick ranking of the team’s top fantasy-relevant players in 2018 and where you should be looking to snag them:

(Side note: Rankings are based upon a 12-team, half-point-PPR scoring system. All average draft positions [“ADP”] are courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com)

Rob Gronkowski, Tight End (ADP: Round 2, Pick 11)

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Gronk is the only Patriots player who can truly give you an unquestioned advantage over your opponents each week, as this guy is in his own tier when it comes to the tight end position. While he has finished with 80-plus catches in just two of his eight seasons in the league, that’s not where his value lies. As everyone knows, Gronk is a touchdown machine, the likes of which the game has never seen at the position (or perhaps any position, for that matter), and compiles receiving yards comparable to some WR1s. Taking away the seasons in which he played less than 14 games, the man has averaged 1,051 yards and almost 12 touchdowns a year. Yes, the guy is definitely an injury risk, but it’s a risk worth taking in order to obtain a stranglehold on a position in which its difficult to find a stud outside of the top three or four players. I’d even consider drafting Gronk in the middle of the second round. So draft away, Pats Nation. Go grab Gronk, and do it early.

Chris Hogan, Wide Receiver (ADP: Round 5, Pick 3)

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With the suspension of Julian Edelman and the departure of Brandin Cooks, Hogan will be Brady’s No. 1 option at the wide receiver position to start the season – and could possibly remain the top wide-out even after Edelman comes back in Week 5. Hogan is easily the team’s best red-zone target outside of Gronk and should see an improvement upon the five scores he had in 2017. People will be quick to point out that he only had 34 receptions last year, which, in a vacuum, looks terrible. But he also only played nine games last year after a freak shoulder injury, and, most importantly, he has MUCH less to compete with this year for targets. Brady is going to need to force-feed Hogan, especially in the early part of 2018, and he could be a fine WR2.

Tom Brady, Quarterback (ADP: Round 5, Pick 3)

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There’s really not much that needs to be said here. Besides Aaron Rodgers, there is no more reliable QB in the game, in both fantasy and real-life. You know that with Brady you’re guaranteed to get at least 30 touchdowns and 4,500 passing yards, at minimum. He’s not going to get you anything on the ground, but honestly who cares? The only thing I’d say is that I am usually not a proponent of drafting a QB until the later rounds, as having a top-flight signal-caller really doesn’t give you as much of an advantage over your opponents as studs at the other skill positions. But you can feel good taking TB12 from the fifth round on.

Rex Burkhead, Running Back (ADP: Round 5, Pick 9)

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For a guy who suffered multiple injuries in 2017 and has missed the past few weeks of practice due to a “slight tear” in his knee, Burkhead has been skyrocketing up draft boards lately. It’s actually not too surprising, as the injury is (supposedly) minor and, according to reports, he could have played against the Eagles last week if it were a regular-season game. Either way, he still looks like the top dog at the position with rookie Sony Michel still sidelined with his own knee issues. The guy also had eight touchdowns in just 10 games last year and really came on strong toward the end of the season. He can handle the rock between the tackles and catch the ball out of the backfield, giving him value in both standard and PPR leagues. An 1,100-plus-total-yard, 10-touchdown season is truly not out of the realm of possibility. In fact, if Burkhead stays healthy all year, I can actually see him returning third- or fourth-round value. I’m a big fan of Sexy Rexy this year.

Sony Michel, Running Back (ADP: Round 6, Pick 10)

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PROCEED WITH CAUTION. I know everyone’s excited about the electric rookie from Georgia after the Pats surprised everyone and took him with the 31st pick in the draft this year, but there is a ton of risk involved here. First and foremost, besides Laurence Maroney, rarely has Belichick ever put much trust in rookie running backs, and even without his long history of knee issues – which date back to high school  – Michel was not going to be the next Ezekiel Elliot. Now the kid hasn’t played in weeks after a small procedure aimed at resolving a “minor” issue with, you guessed it, his knee, has kept him out a little longer than initially reported. While he’s still on track to be ready for the start of the regular season, knee issues don’t just “go away.” If he stays on the field, though, he could be a nice piece. After all, he averaged an absolutely insane 7.9 yards per carry in the SEC last year and scored 17 total touchdowns. But for now, I’m not touching the guy with a 10-foot pole, especially in PPR leagues (64 total receptions in four years at Georgia). I’m obviously hoping for the best, but let someone else in your league reach for him this year.

Julian Edelman, Wide Receiver (ADP: Round 7, Pick 9)

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Since 2013, there has perhaps been no better possession slot receiver in the NFL (besides maybe Jarvis Landry). In terms of targets and overall receptions, Jules has dominated both when it came to Brady’s favorite targets, and it’s not even close. However, Edelman is now 32 years old, missed all of last season with a torn ACL – after already missing almost half the year due to injury in 2015 – and, though he looked OK during last week’s preseason game against the Eagles, he has looked frustrated at times this offseason. Oh, and there’s the fact he’s set to miss the first quarter of the season due to suspension. He’ll most likely become the target-leader once again after he returns in Week 5, but the year-and-some-change layoff from playing with Brady could have an effect. He’s also not going to get you a ton in the way of yards and touchdowns, and he isn’t as valuable in standard leagues. Still, I think Edelman produces enough to be a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 this year, and his current ADP sounds pretty accurate if you’re willing to eat the first four weeks.

James White, Running Back (ADP: Round 13, Pick 2)

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After Edelman, there’s a pretty big drop-off in terms of Patriots fantasy relevance, with my boy James White currently clocking in around the 13th round. White is one of those guys who, while capable of having solid fantasy games, is much more of a real-life asset. He is the team’s unquestioned passing-down back, receiving at least 70 targets and at least 50 catches over each of the past two seasons. Though he could receive a bump in ball-carrying opportunities this year, especially considering both Burkhead’s and Michel’s injury history, he’s not going to get you much between the tackles. He could be a solid RB3/4, depending on your league, but in no instance should he ever be a weekly starter. Basically, it comes down to this with White: If you’re in a half-point PPR, take him here; if you’re in a full-point PPR, I might even take him a few rounds higher; if you’re in a standard league, leave him alone.

Other than that, while there may be some outbreak performances from some of the under-the-radar guys, there really aren’t many other Pats you should be targeting on draft day. Keep an eye out for them on the waiver wire when opportunity strikes, but for now I wouldn’t touch them.

Best of luck to all my fellow fantasy nerds over the next few weeks – unless you’re in one of my leagues, of course – and be sure to let us know how you like my rankings in the comments below.

BREAKING: Patriots Sign WR Eric Decker to 1-Year Deal

After playing grab ass for the past few months with reported interest from Decker on signing with New England and with the team officially working him out this week, it all came to ahead when Jordan Matthews blew a hammy and the Pats cut him. The Patriots were looking pretty damn barren at receiver with Edelman out for the first month of the season. They would have been relying on Chris Hogan, Philip Dorsett, Cordarrelle Patterson, Kenny Britt, and whoever else winds up actually making the roster. Can’t have that. Can’t pretend its 2006 again and give Brady a bunch of scrubs and expect him to carry the entire team.

So I love the move, I’ve always been a big Eric Decker guy. Only had 1 TD last year, but he caught 54 balls for 563 yards. Not bad with a mobile QB in Marcus Mariota throwing you the ball. Cut out 2016 when he was limited to just 3 games because of injury and Decker had 4 straight years of 74+ catches.

Not to mention Josh McDaniels drafted him in Denver and knows Decker’s strengths inside and out so I would expect him to be a great fit. He’s always been solid, he’s got good hands, he’s handsome AF and his wife is an absolute must follow on twitter.

Jessie James Decker is a true ride or die that you don’t see the likes of these days and I for one am psyched to have the Deckers in my life once again.

I say once again because I have watched multiple, multiple episodes of Eric and Jessie while hungover on the coach and it is an excellent show. I suggest you all catch up so you know what we’re dealing with here.

Plus it would be an added bonus to take a guy the Jets couldn’t get much out of and make him a stud again as the Patriots tend to do.

I’m Not Worried About All the Patriots Injuries, You Are

The Patriots cruised to a blowout win over the Saints yesterday so its all popsicles and sunshine around here. Kind of. Not to throw cold water on a great victory, but we saw some key players exit the game or clearly playing at less than 100% with various injuries. I’m not yet in panic mode, but this shit has me straight up concerned.

  • Julian Edelman (IR)
  • Malcolm Mitchell (IR)
  • Matthew Slater (OUT – hammy)
  • Danny Amendola (OUT – concussion/knee)
  • Philip Dorsett (came out of the game)
  • Chris Hogan (was in and out of game, severely limping)

“It really, really sucks that Edelman is done for the year, but if there was ever a year to have an injury at receiver, its this year.” I said those words after Edelman went down because we still had Hogan, Amendola, Mitchell, and of course the newly acquired Brandin Cooks. Now? Frighteningly thin. Sure, Brady went out there and had one of his best games ever with fucking fullbacks lining up out wide, but that game had an eerily-2006 feel to it when Brady was basically throwing to trashcans in the AFC championship game.

  • Dont’a Hightower (OUT – knee)

Reports are still pegging this at  2-3 week “minor” injury, but the fact that it happened in Week 1 after the Pats and other teams in Free Agency were concerned with Hightower’s health is not a great sign. If he misses a lengthy period of time, then this Pats defense is cooked against the better teams in this league.

  • Rob Gronkowski (left the game with a groin injury)

Here’s my real-time reaction to Gronk making a reception and taking a hit before gingerly getting up and taking himself out of the game.

And its true, I legit can’t bear to watch the guy take hits anymore because you never know which one is gonna be the one that ends his season this time. But in the sick paradox that is football, its the only way for Gronk to be effective. If he’s not out there being a physical monster, then he’s just not making an impact. It seems like this is a groin injury and not too serious; Gronk said he was “fine” after the game. Thankfully its not the back as Tony Romo pointed out multiple times on the broadcast. Romo’s career was effectively ended by back injuries so this guy knows what he’s talking about, which is scary. Hopefully its just a tweak and Gronk’s back out there next week.

  • Eric Rowe (left the game with a groin injury)

Role players for the Pats (except both started against the Saints) so to see these guys exit the game with injuries is concerning as well. Rowe is the 2nd or 3rd corner depending on what day it is, so to lose that guy for any period of time is a huge hit for the D.

  • Rex Burkhead (left the game with a rib injury)

Burkhead looked like yet another wrinkle in the Pats offense that McDaniels could have some fun with before leaving the game with a rib injury. Its unclear how serious that injury is, but he didn’t return to the game. Sure the Pats have a stable of RBs, but their effectiveness is in the combined efficiency of their diversity, ya know kind of like the Captain Planet Planeteers. So the more of them that are healthy the better off the Pats will be.

So long story short, injuries are starting to pile up for the Patriots and its not even October yet, which has me concerned. Combine the recent injuries with preseason losses like top draft pick Derek Rivers (ACL) and Rob Ninkovich (delicious Bud Lights in retirement and arguing with Felger on TV) and the Pats are getting thinner each week on both sides of the ball. They looked awesome against the Saints, but hopefully some of these injuries clear up or Tom Brady will literally have to carry this team on his back like the old 2006 squad.

The Patriots are Back Tonight to Light the Biggest Fire the North Has Ever Seen

LETS GOOO. LETS GOOO. Your Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots are back tonight after 7 months without football. Tonight they’re gonna light the biggest fire the north has ever seen.

The last time we saw this team they were lifting the Lombardi Trophy after completing the greatest comeback in NFL history and giving Roger Goodell and the league a gigantic middle finger. As Robert Kraft once said, this one is unequivocally the sweetest.

The Pats had to literally redesign the goddamn stadium to make room for Super Bowl Champs banner No. 5. That is preposterous and tonight we get to see Tom Brady and the boys drop another banner on the rest of the NFL.

It sucks that we lost Julian Edelman for the year with a knee injury, but this team is still stacked. We’ve got Gronk back, added Brandon Cooks, and brought in Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee. Another year in the system for Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell. Dion Lewis, Danny Amendola, Dont’a Hightower, Malcolm Butler, Devin McCourty, Stephon Gilmore, GET OFF THE TRACKS BECAUSE THE TRAIN IS LEAVING THE STATION.

We’re on to Minneaposix. See ya in February.

Edelman Out, but the Work Goes on for the Patriots

As was suspected Friday night when Julian Edelman left the Patriots’ third preseason game with an injury, Edelman tore his ACL and will miss the entire 2017 season.

A lot of fans on social media were quick to decry the NFL preseason but the truth is that this injury could have happened at any time. Tom Brady didn’t play at all in the 2008 preseason and suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1 of the regular season. Wes Welker tore his left ACL and MCL in Week 17 in 2009. Rob Gronkowski has suffered a wide range of injuries during his seven year career, including a broken arm while playing on field goal protection (!) against the Colts in Week 11 in 2012.

Time and again, the Patriots have shown the ability to adapt and not only survive, but excel. The Patriots won the Super Bowl last season despite not having Gronkowski for the last five games of the regular season or the playoffs. They won the Super Bowl in 2003 after cutting Lawyer Milloy four days before the start of the regular season. And they won 11 games in 2008 without Brady, becoming the first 11-win team to miss the playoffs in more than two decades.

This season will be no different. It’s always disappointing to see a star player go down, but Bill Belichick never lets emotions affect his team’s play. The Patriots still have a very talented wide receiver corps that includes Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola. Future hall of famer Rob Gronkowski is apparently healthy and ready to go, and the Patriots should still be able to cobble together a pretty good running game (to the chagrin of fantasy football players). With the AFC East still consisting of the Jets, Bills and Dolphins, it’s hard to bet against this team making it back to at least the AFC Championship game in January.

If you’re still down about Edelman, though, rest assured. He will be back, and it will be a hell of story in the updated afterword to his memoir in a few years.

Would This Be Tom Brady’s Most Impressive Super Bowl Win Ever?

So we talked about this on this week’s episode of The 300s Podcast, but would winning Super Bowl 51 be Tom Brady’s most impressive Super Bowl win ever? When you look around at his supporting cast on offense you have:

  • Julian Edelman (7th round pick)
  • Chris Hogan (undrafted lacrosse player)
  • Danny Amendola (undrafted)
  • Martellus Bennett (4th team in 8 years and acquired for a 4th round pick)
  • Dion Lewis (traded and cut by multiple teams)
  • LaGarrette Blount (originally acquired via trade for JEFF DEMPS and then resigned after he was cut by Pittsburgh)
  • James White (4th round pick)

If you want to go by what Keyshawn Johnson said this week, not one of these Patriots receivers would even make the 53-man roster of another NFL team. Bennett was an unwanted malcontent on a last place Bears team. Lewis and Blount were castoffs and White is Brady’s latest shotgun running back that he’s molded to his whims. It’s like he builds these guys in a lab somewhere with Ernie Adams.

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Oh and he also missed four games, which could have easily derailed the season or at the very least caused Brady to not be at the top of his game. But nope, he went out and played at an MVP level.

And did we mention that he doesn’t have his best weapon, one of the most most dominant players in the NFL in Rob Gronkowski? Name one other team that could stand losing a player of Gronk’s caliber, I’ll wait. Instead the Pats haven’t missed a beat and finished with a top 3 offense in the league.

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Brady’s done this his whole career with guys like Troy Brown, Deion Branch, Wes Welker, Shane Vereen, Danny Woodhead etc. The one time he had a Hall of Fame talent was with Randy Moss in 2007 and he threw 50 fucking touchdowns.

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So would winning a Super Bowl title without his best weapon, a stable of late round picks, undrafted players and castoffs from other teams all while missing a quarter of the season be Brady’s best ever? Without a doubt. Now hit the music.

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Patriots Dismantle the Steelers On The Way to Their 9th Super Bowl Appearance

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The Patriots are going to their 9th Super Bowl. The most in NFL history. Bill Belichick is going to his 7th Super Bowl as a head coach. The most in NFL history. And Tom Brady is going to his 7th Super Bowl as player. The most in NFL history.

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The Patriots played their best game of the year in all 3 phases of the game and Pittsburgh just had no answer. Tom Brady went 32 for 42 for 384 yards and 3 TD’s in the 36-17 dismantling of Pittsburgh. A handful of those incompletions were drops or intentional throwaways too. And Brady now has 22 TD’s and 0 INTs in his last 7 games against Mike Tomlin and the Steelers.

Sure, LeVeon Bell getting hurt did not help the Steelers (who appeared very LaDanian Tomlinson-esque on the sidelines), but the Pats shut down Deangelo Williams (34 yards and a TD), who in the past has roasted New England. But they also held All-Pro receiver Antonio Brown in check to just 7 catches for 77 yards. Kudos to Malcolm Butler and also to Mark Zuckerberg for setting up shop in Brown’s head with the whole Facebook Live debacle.

Patriots corner Eric Rowe does scare the shit out of me though. The stats say he had a pick and no huge plays given up, but in reality he was getting burned all night and if it wasn’t for 2 or 3 drops by Pittsburgh receivers this could have been a much tighter game. So he should be a blast to watch against the No. 1 offense in the NFL during the Super Bowl.

The Pats running game wasn’t great, save for that pile-carrying run Blount had down to the 1. But it didn’t need to be as Chris Hogan and Julian Edelman lit up the Steelers questionable secondary all night. The two combined for 17 catches, 298 yards and 3 TD’s. Hogan in fact broke the Patriots record for receiving yards in a playoff game with his 9 for 180, which is all you need to know about last night’s game. The Steelers either didn’t respect him or just forgot to cover him because he found holes all night long for big plays and 2 TD’s. He should have had another huge play too, but Brady underthrew him on a deep crossing route.

Tom Brady was brilliant once again. Completing passes to 9 different receivers. I’m sure the entire week of talk radio and ESPN saying how poorly Brady played against the Texans the previous week and how vulnerable they looked was a good boost of extra motivation.

The Patriots have now won 17 of 20 home playoff games with Belichick and Brady. That is bananas.

And, my goodness this ESPN the Magazine cover. Just look at it. You’ve done a lot of terrible, unforgivable things ESPN, but goddamnit will I be purchasing this beauty.

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We’re on to the Super Bowl.

Patriots Advance to SIXTH Straight AFC Championship Game

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So last night the Patriots advanced to their SIXTH straight AFC Championship game (NFL record) after topping the Texans 34-16. It wasn’t exactly the easy street blowout most of us expected, even though the Pats did cover the highest playoff point spread in 20 years. But a win is a win is a win. TB12 was rushed and hit all night (2 sacks, at least 6 hits), with a couple of late hits from JeDeveon Clowney as the Texans D tried to do something, anything to stop the Patriots.

As they came to learn though, the Patriots are like the goddamn tide on the beach, they cannot be stopped. Any time the Texans D did anything positive to get some momentm, Brock Osweiler immediately reminded everyone why he’s been a huge waste of $70 million.

Dude threw 3 picks last night to destroy any chance the Texans had of staying in the game. And I would be remiss to not mention Dion Lewis having an absolutely befuddling game, all while dominating. Three touchdowns. Two fumbles. Receiving, rushing and a kickoff returned for a TD. Have a day kid.

I was starting to sweat a little bit down the stretch, not because the game was in doubt, but because Tom Brady, Martellus Bennett and other key players were taking unnecessary shots in a game that was already decided. Not to mention Tom Brady had a relatively mediocre game (47% completion percentage) so expect to come out and tear it up next week. Edelman and Hogan were huge per usual, making a bunch of clutch catches to bail out the Patriots offense. Now its time to watch the Steelers and Chiefs beat the crap out of each other to earn the right to play the role of sacrificial lamb next week. ONE MORE!

 

Patriots Pull Out 30-23 Win Over the Ravens: The Good and the Bad

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A quick breakdown of the Patriots 30-23 win over the Ravens last night, which featured a lot of good (Tom Brady) and a lot of bad. All in all, an impressive win over the best defense in the NFL.

The Good

  • Tom Brady: Brady was at his finest last night. Hyped up, pissed off and shredding the defense. 3 Touchdowns and 400+ passing yards against the No. 1 defense in the NFL. Pretty, pretty, pretty good. That touchdown to Malcolm Mitchell in the Red Zone was an absolute missile in a window the size of a coast and is a throw most QB’s probably don’t even try. Also, getting on Edelman and Chris hogan to get their shit together after a less than ideal start seemed to really give those guys a much needed kick in the ass.
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  • Chris Hogan: Hogan earned his excellent nickname 7-11 last night as he really was open all day. Seemed like Brady had to give him a little shit to get back on the field after hurting his hand early in the game, but its hard to argue with 5 catches for 129 yards and a TD. That 79 yard TD was money as Hogan seems to have another gear in the open field I didn’t even know about.
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  • Martellus Bennett’s Health: This was huge last night after there were reports circulating that Marty was less than 100%, which is a scary thing to hear with Gronk done for the year. If Bennett goes down or can’t get the job done then the Pats are probably screwed with zero tight end presence. But Bennett looked great last night especially one his nearly 1 handed TD catch when the defender was draped all over him and Bennett ripped the ball off the guy and held on for the score. Plus the 3 TE set on play action where Bennett lined up in the middle of the other two “tight ends” and slipped into an opening for an easy first down. Great sign.
  • Special Teams: That blocked field goal by Shane McClellin was an absolute thing of beauty. Perfectly timed, incredibly athletic play by a prototypical Bill Belichick guy; a former top pick he peeled off the scrap heap of another team for peanuts. Great play against the best kicker in the league who was the only kicker in the NFL to not miss a kick yet. Jamie Collins who? And the punt coverage unit was on fire as well. Downing a punt at the 1 yard line leading to the safety, which put the Pats on the board and set the tone for the whole game.

The Bad

  • Special Teams: Holy shit talk about a Jekyll and Hyde performance from the special teams last night. They were absolutely carrying the Pats in the beginning of the game. All of Twitter was gleefully ripping off tweets about how special teams is 1/3 of the game and just as important. Then a couple fumbled punts later and suddenly the Pats are only up a field goal. I’ve never seen a BB special teams unit that hot and cold in the *same game* Thankfully TB12 saved the day, but relying too much on Brady is what has usually killed the Pats in the past. Brady has a slightly off day and the rest of the team can’t pick up the slack. Something to keep an eye on.
  • Cyrus Jones: Jesus christ, this kid is shook. Last night he could not get out of his own way and now has FOUR fumbled punts on the year. It’s clearly a mental thing, but its at the point now he just cannot be trusted back there. I also don’t get why the insist on putting him as a PR, apparently he only has 12 career punt returns in college. Maybe it was just me being dumb, but I was lead to believe he was some kind of PR specialist? Either way, hopefully he can make an impact as a depth safety because right now he is looking like a real bungle of a 2nd round pick.
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  • Linebackers Covering RBs Out of the Backfield: Said it last night and I’ll say it again; the Patriots are the only team that can give up a 40 yard screen play to a freakin full back and it doesn’t shock me. They just cannot cover running backs out of the backfield and that is a huge issue heading into the playoffs. This is where a guy like Collins would have been valuable, they just don’t really have the speed to cover guys coming out of the backfield on screens. Giving up 40 to a fullback is an embarrassment though and is probably a bigger reflection of poor tackling than anything else. This could be their potential undoing in the playoffs. Woof.
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