Tag: David Montgomery

Gridiron Tales Week 2: Dak to Life, Dak to Reality Edition

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What would you do if the Cowboys offered Dak Prescott to the Jets? - Gang Green Nation

Last season: 25-18 (58.1%)

It feels so good to be back. I took Week 1 “off” from making official picks because I didn’t want to write prop suggestions based on feelings because I’m a stats and research kind of guy. Week 1 was enough of a sample size + I’ll very much utilize player history where applicable.

First Pick: Dak Prescott O26.5 completions at LAC (-105)

Fact #1: In 5 full games under Mike McCarthy, Dak’s completion totals are: 25, 34, 37, 14 and 42 last week.

Fact #2: At 55 points, this is the highest O/U this week, so points are expected to come early and often.


Second Pick: Jalen Hurts O19.5 completions vs SF (-130)

Fact #1: In 4 full games as the starter, Hurts has compiled completion totals of 17, 24, 21 and 27 last week.

Fact #2: This is a 9ers team that let Jared Goff and the Lions creep back into last week’s Game with 38 completions on 57 attempts.


Third Pick: David Montgomery O63.5 rush yards vs CIN (-120)

Fact #1: In Week 1, Montgomery turned 16 carries into 108 yards and a score vs a Rams team that did not allow a 100-yard rusher all last season.

Fact #2: I know the Bengals held Dalvin Cook to 61 rush yards on 20 carries, but no one believes Cincy is on the same defensive playing field as the Rams.


Fourth Pick: Chris Carson O68.5 rush yards vs TEN (-115)

Fact #1: Carson turned 16 carries into 91 yards against the Colts, who allowed the third-fewest rushing yards to RBs last season.

Fact #2: In Week 1, the Titans allowed 53 rush yards to James Conner and 63 to Chase Edmonds. With Rashad Penny out, that’s even more breathing room for Carson to take more of the rushing attempts.


Fifth Pick: Christian McCaffrey O6.5 receptions vs NOLA (+105)

Fact #1: CMC caught all nine of his targets vs the Jets.

Fact #2: In 6 career games vs Nola, his reception totals are 9, 5, 8, 1, 9 and 7. New head coach, but the feeding doesn’t look like it will stop.

Gridiron Tales Week 13

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Last week: 3-2

Season: 14-9

Highlight the Highs: I was proud of myself for nailing Wentz’s over completion total given that he and the Eagles had an abysmal start on MNF against the Seahawks.

Loathe the Lows: I expected Jalen Reagor to catch one deep ball on that suspect Seahawks secondary and it just never came to fruition.


The Pick: David Montgomery O61.5 rushing yards vs DET (-148)

Let me preface this with the fact that when I looked at this prop on Saturday night, it was around the -110/-120 area. Even with the heavier juice, I still like it and here’s why:

Fact #1: The Lions have allowed the second-most rushing yards over the last five weeks (594)

Fact #2: Back in Week 1, Montgomery finished with 13 carries for 64 yards

Fact #3: Montgomery has had rushing totals of 89, 30 and 103, respectively, over his last three games



The Pick: Derek Carr O23.5 completions vs NYJ (+101)

Fact #1: This prop is more about the opposing defense than it is the QB

Fact #2: The Jets have allowed the 5th-most completions (122) to QBs over the last five weeks, despite only playing 4 games in that span (avg of 30.5)

Fact #3: Since Week 5, only one QB (Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 6) has failed to complete fewer than 24 passes against New York.



The Pick: Baker Mayfield O227.5 passing yards vs TEN (-112)

Fact #1: The Titans have allowed the 3rd-most completions (132) and fifth-most passing yards (1,373) to QBs over the last five weeks (avg of 274.6)

Fact #2: Over the last four weeks, only Lamar Jackson (186) failed to pass for fewer than 295 yards against TEN, which includes QBs Nick Foles and Philip Rivers x2