Last week: 3-2
Highlight the Highs: I was proud of myself for nailing Wentz’s over completion total given that he and the Eagles had an abysmal start on MNF against the Seahawks.
Loathe the Lows: I expected Jalen Reagor to catch one deep ball on that suspect Seahawks secondary and it just never came to fruition.
The Pick: David Montgomery O61.5 rushing yards vs DET (-148)
Let me preface this with the fact that when I looked at this prop on Saturday night, it was around the -110/-120 area. Even with the heavier juice, I still like it and here’s why:
Fact #1: The Lions have allowed the second-most rushing yards over the last five weeks (594)
Fact #2: Back in Week 1, Montgomery finished with 13 carries for 64 yards
Fact #3: Montgomery has had rushing totals of 89, 30 and 103, respectively, over his last three games
The Pick: Derek Carr O23.5 completions vs NYJ (+101)
Fact #1: This prop is more about the opposing defense than it is the QB
Fact #2: The Jets have allowed the 5th-most completions (122) to QBs over the last five weeks, despite only playing 4 games in that span (avg of 30.5)
Fact #3: Since Week 5, only one QB (Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 6) has failed to complete fewer than 24 passes against New York.
The Pick: Baker Mayfield O227.5 passing yards vs TEN (-112)
Fact #1: The Titans have allowed the 3rd-most completions (132) and fifth-most passing yards (1,373) to QBs over the last five weeks (avg of 274.6)
Fact #2: Over the last four weeks, only Lamar Jackson (186) failed to pass for fewer than 295 yards against TEN, which includes QBs Nick Foles and Philip Rivers x2