Tag: Rex Burkhead

Eric Decker Announces Retirement. Who is Going to Catch Passes for the Patriots?

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Okay, now I’m officially nervous. Eric Decker announced his retirement last night and posted the following message on Instagram.

All training camp and preseason I’ve been saying don’t worry about the receiver depth and that the Patriots will figure out a way to patch everything together for the first month until Julian Edelman returns. Then Malcolm Mitchell got cut. Then Jordan Matthews got cut. Then Kenny Britt got cut. Then Eric Decker retired.

Shit.

People obviously weren’t as high on Decker as I was, but I viewed him as a proven veteran who could catch the ball, no more no less. He definitely struggled in his short stint with the Patriots though as he was dropping lots of passes.

I still think Decker would have been able to right the ship. Maybe he’s not blowing by guys off the line anymore, but you don’t just lose the ability to catch the ball overnight. And for a guy that had four 80+ catch seasons I would have given him the benefit of the doubt. But maybe the Pats saw the writing on the wall. With all the drops it looked like Decker may have been on the outside looking in on Brady’s circle of trust. Once that happens its hard to get back in.

Former players were saying that Decker was thinking too much as he was trying to digest the Patriots playbook and was thinking more about where he was supposed to be rather than just catching the ball. Well it would seem like Belichick was over it and was going to cut Decker, but gave him the option to “go out on his own terms” and retire instead, which is exactly what Decker did.

Well now the Patriots receiving corps looks like this:

  • Chris Hogan
  • Phillip Dorsett
  • Cordarrelle Patterson
  • Braxton Berrios
  • Devin Lucien
  • Riley McCarron
  • Paul Turner (aka Paul Turner the IT Guy, or “something called Paul Turner” as Big Jim Murray nicknamed him)
  • Matthew Slater

That is not exactly confidence inspiring. And no, bringing in Dez Bryant is not the solution here, but hell if I know what that answer is.

Not all these guys are even a lock to make the roster and Doug Kyed over at NESN thinks the Pats might only keep 4 receivers total, which includes special teams captain Matthew Slater, and just try to stay above water until Edelman returns from suspension.

I can’t say I’m okay with the Pats slotting in Matthew Slater as the No. 4 WR as we’ve all seen what Slater can(not) do as a pure receiver.

The Pats may just lean on the deep RB group that they have, but even half of those guys are dealing with injuries. Rex Burkhead has missed some time with a tear in his knee, although reports have said he’ll be able to play through it. First round pick Sony Michel remains sidelined with his own knee injury too. Suddenly the RB depth isn’t what it appeared to be a few weeks ago.

Belichick and co. seem to like what they have at the TE position with Rob Gronkowski, Dwayne Allen, and Jacob Hollister has made headlines this preseason for his play. So the Madden expert that I am would not be surprised to see a lot of James White screens and 2 and 3TE sets to start the season for the Patriots.

I honestly doubt the Pats bring in anyone from the FA scrap heap at this point in the season. They’re more likely to see who may be available on the trade block as they did last year with Phillip Dorsett. The hot rumor this past week has the Patriots eyeing Denver’s Demaryius Targaryen, er, Thomas. I would be fine with that if the price is right, plus he’s a big dude at 6’3″, but at $8.5M I can’t see Belichick taking that on as is.

We’ll see what the Patriots do, but either way its time to start battening down the hatches as the regular season kicks off Sunday, Sept. 9th at 1 pm.

Top Patriots Fantasy Football Players for 2018

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Not only have we officially reached the most important week of the NFL preseason, but these next two weeks also mark perhaps the most important time of the year as a fantasy football owner. Unless you are a masochist that likes to watch one of your top draft picks blow out a knee in the preseason Week 3 dress rehearsal, or see one of your “sleepers” get the pink slip before final cuts are even made, there is no way you should have had your fantasy draft by now.

If you’re like me, you’ve got your draft scheduled for one of the next two weekends – I’ve actually got one draft on each of the next two Sundays – and if you haven’t been doing your homework by now…well, quite frankly you’re screwed.

There are also plenty of other ways to screw yourself before the season even begins. (For more examples of such, check out Red and Big Z’s “Fantasy Football Follies” podcast from last week.)

But perhaps one of the biggest ways to hurt yourself, other than drafting too early, is being too much of a homer. Look, nobody loves the Pats more than me – which I’m sure you could all tell by now – but you’ll see me donning Jets gear before I even think about drafting any Patriot besides Gronk within the first two or three rounds.

Do NOT be this person:

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Great show. AWFUL approach.

Still, I will admit that, yes, it is fun to have some of your hometown heroes on your squad, and I’m not saying you can’t make that happen. You just have to make sure you do it the right way, and ONLY IF the cards fall in your favor.

So, for all my fellow Pats fans out there, here’s a quick ranking of the team’s top fantasy-relevant players in 2018 and where you should be looking to snag them:

(Side note: Rankings are based upon a 12-team, half-point-PPR scoring system. All average draft positions [“ADP”] are courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com)

Rob Gronkowski, Tight End (ADP: Round 2, Pick 11)

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Gronk is the only Patriots player who can truly give you an unquestioned advantage over your opponents each week, as this guy is in his own tier when it comes to the tight end position. While he has finished with 80-plus catches in just two of his eight seasons in the league, that’s not where his value lies. As everyone knows, Gronk is a touchdown machine, the likes of which the game has never seen at the position (or perhaps any position, for that matter), and compiles receiving yards comparable to some WR1s. Taking away the seasons in which he played less than 14 games, the man has averaged 1,051 yards and almost 12 touchdowns a year. Yes, the guy is definitely an injury risk, but it’s a risk worth taking in order to obtain a stranglehold on a position in which its difficult to find a stud outside of the top three or four players. I’d even consider drafting Gronk in the middle of the second round. So draft away, Pats Nation. Go grab Gronk, and do it early.

Chris Hogan, Wide Receiver (ADP: Round 5, Pick 3)

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With the suspension of Julian Edelman and the departure of Brandin Cooks, Hogan will be Brady’s No. 1 option at the wide receiver position to start the season – and could possibly remain the top wide-out even after Edelman comes back in Week 5. Hogan is easily the team’s best red-zone target outside of Gronk and should see an improvement upon the five scores he had in 2017. People will be quick to point out that he only had 34 receptions last year, which, in a vacuum, looks terrible. But he also only played nine games last year after a freak shoulder injury, and, most importantly, he has MUCH less to compete with this year for targets. Brady is going to need to force-feed Hogan, especially in the early part of 2018, and he could be a fine WR2.

Tom Brady, Quarterback (ADP: Round 5, Pick 3)

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There’s really not much that needs to be said here. Besides Aaron Rodgers, there is no more reliable QB in the game, in both fantasy and real-life. You know that with Brady you’re guaranteed to get at least 30 touchdowns and 4,500 passing yards, at minimum. He’s not going to get you anything on the ground, but honestly who cares? The only thing I’d say is that I am usually not a proponent of drafting a QB until the later rounds, as having a top-flight signal-caller really doesn’t give you as much of an advantage over your opponents as studs at the other skill positions. But you can feel good taking TB12 from the fifth round on.

Rex Burkhead, Running Back (ADP: Round 5, Pick 9)

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For a guy who suffered multiple injuries in 2017 and has missed the past few weeks of practice due to a “slight tear” in his knee, Burkhead has been skyrocketing up draft boards lately. It’s actually not too surprising, as the injury is (supposedly) minor and, according to reports, he could have played against the Eagles last week if it were a regular-season game. Either way, he still looks like the top dog at the position with rookie Sony Michel still sidelined with his own knee issues. The guy also had eight touchdowns in just 10 games last year and really came on strong toward the end of the season. He can handle the rock between the tackles and catch the ball out of the backfield, giving him value in both standard and PPR leagues. An 1,100-plus-total-yard, 10-touchdown season is truly not out of the realm of possibility. In fact, if Burkhead stays healthy all year, I can actually see him returning third- or fourth-round value. I’m a big fan of Sexy Rexy this year.

Sony Michel, Running Back (ADP: Round 6, Pick 10)

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PROCEED WITH CAUTION. I know everyone’s excited about the electric rookie from Georgia after the Pats surprised everyone and took him with the 31st pick in the draft this year, but there is a ton of risk involved here. First and foremost, besides Laurence Maroney, rarely has Belichick ever put much trust in rookie running backs, and even without his long history of knee issues – which date back to high school  – Michel was not going to be the next Ezekiel Elliot. Now the kid hasn’t played in weeks after a small procedure aimed at resolving a “minor” issue with, you guessed it, his knee, has kept him out a little longer than initially reported. While he’s still on track to be ready for the start of the regular season, knee issues don’t just “go away.” If he stays on the field, though, he could be a nice piece. After all, he averaged an absolutely insane 7.9 yards per carry in the SEC last year and scored 17 total touchdowns. But for now, I’m not touching the guy with a 10-foot pole, especially in PPR leagues (64 total receptions in four years at Georgia). I’m obviously hoping for the best, but let someone else in your league reach for him this year.

Julian Edelman, Wide Receiver (ADP: Round 7, Pick 9)

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Since 2013, there has perhaps been no better possession slot receiver in the NFL (besides maybe Jarvis Landry). In terms of targets and overall receptions, Jules has dominated both when it came to Brady’s favorite targets, and it’s not even close. However, Edelman is now 32 years old, missed all of last season with a torn ACL – after already missing almost half the year due to injury in 2015 – and, though he looked OK during last week’s preseason game against the Eagles, he has looked frustrated at times this offseason. Oh, and there’s the fact he’s set to miss the first quarter of the season due to suspension. He’ll most likely become the target-leader once again after he returns in Week 5, but the year-and-some-change layoff from playing with Brady could have an effect. He’s also not going to get you a ton in the way of yards and touchdowns, and he isn’t as valuable in standard leagues. Still, I think Edelman produces enough to be a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 this year, and his current ADP sounds pretty accurate if you’re willing to eat the first four weeks.

James White, Running Back (ADP: Round 13, Pick 2)

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After Edelman, there’s a pretty big drop-off in terms of Patriots fantasy relevance, with my boy James White currently clocking in around the 13th round. White is one of those guys who, while capable of having solid fantasy games, is much more of a real-life asset. He is the team’s unquestioned passing-down back, receiving at least 70 targets and at least 50 catches over each of the past two seasons. Though he could receive a bump in ball-carrying opportunities this year, especially considering both Burkhead’s and Michel’s injury history, he’s not going to get you much between the tackles. He could be a solid RB3/4, depending on your league, but in no instance should he ever be a weekly starter. Basically, it comes down to this with White: If you’re in a half-point PPR, take him here; if you’re in a full-point PPR, I might even take him a few rounds higher; if you’re in a standard league, leave him alone.

Other than that, while there may be some outbreak performances from some of the under-the-radar guys, there really aren’t many other Pats you should be targeting on draft day. Keep an eye out for them on the waiver wire when opportunity strikes, but for now I wouldn’t touch them.

Best of luck to all my fellow fantasy nerds over the next few weeks – unless you’re in one of my leagues, of course – and be sure to let us know how you like my rankings in the comments below.

The 300s Previews the Patriots: Part 1

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*Insert over-used “It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year” reference here.* (Go ahead and even sing it in your head, if you want.)

FOOTBALL IS BACK, BABY!

The Patriots officially kicked off training camp in Foxborough today, and per usual there are plenty of storylines to get to.

But this year feels a little bit different. Instead of focusing on positional battles or guessing which player you’ll invest a high fantasy draft pick on only to see Belichick bury them on the bottom of the depth chart before the first leaves even change color (see: Dobson, Aaron; Gillislee, Mike; Ochocinco, Chad; Ridley, Stevan; Taylor, Fred), people seem to be much more concerned with how much “fun” the team is having, how “mean” Belichick really is, or why Tom Brady doesn’t eat tomatoes (no, but really, he doesn’t).

This entire offseason has felt like an episode of General Hospital, and I’m honestly done with all the soap opera bullshit. I’m just ready to watch some good action on the gridiron.

Here’s the first of a weekly series from The 300s focusing on actual football-related issues pertaining to Brady & Co. before Christmas finally arrives on Sunday, September 9:

Sexy Rexy vs. the New Kid: Who Ya Got?

The Pats surprised a lot of people in May when they selected former Georgia stud running back Sony Michel with the 31st pick in this year’s NFL draft.

Sure, Dion Lewis – who totaled over 1,100 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns last season – had signed with the Titans two months before, but the team still had Rex Burkhead, James White, and Mike Gillislee, the last of whom people thought maybe (JUST MAYBE) could have a bounce-back season after the Pats signed him to a two-year, $6.4 million deal last summer. (OK, I know most people forgot Gillislee was even on the team, but let’s not forget that this was a guy who averaged just under six yards a carry and scored 12 total touchdowns from 2015-2016 as a backup to LeSean McCoy in Buffalo. He also had 98 carries for the Pats through the first eight weeks of last season before being banished to the bench for the rest of the year, save for six carries in Week 16 against Buffalo. He’s most likely going to be cut unless he has a monster camp, but he’s really not a bad player and should re-emerge somewhere throughout the league this season.)

Nevertheless, Belichick and McDaniels saw something in the 23-year-old Michel, who finally signed his rookie deal on Monday and looks primed for a feature role in the offense.

But wait a minute, Mattes, what about Burkhead – who had eight touchdowns in 10 games last season – and White – the loveable, reliable pass-catching specialist who got robbed of a Super Bowl MVP award against the Falcons two years ago? (Sorry, Tom, but White was absolutely the MVP of that Super Bowl. Period.)

First and foremost, White’s role is locked in, and regardless of whether or not the Pats took Michel this past spring, not much is set to change for him. He’s still going to get the bulk of the targets out of the backfield, finish with 50-70 catches, and serve as the emergency ball-carrier in the event Burkhead and/or Michel go down.

But what about Burkhead?

After signing with the team as a free agent last summer, Burkhead played in just 12.3% and 10.5% of the team’s offensive snaps, respectively, through the first two games of the season before sitting out the next four games due to injury. However, after returning against the Falcons in Week 7, Burkhead played in about a third of the team’s offensive snaps the rest of the way, ultimately becoming the team’s main goal-line back and secondary pass-catcher out of the backfield – before missing the team’s final two games of the season, again due to injury.

So while durability issues may be a bit of concern for Burkhead, there is no doubt that he is a true all-around threat at the running back position. And after re-signing with the team yet again this offseason, the coaching staff obviously plans to use him.

Sooooo where does that leave Michel?

Well, no team in their right mind is going to use a first-round pick on a running back only to have him ride the pine for the majority of his rookie season. We may see this happen with quarterbacks, even more so in recent years, but first-round picks are not spent on running backs unless the team believes they can handle the rock right away. Michel is going to get his.

Even with Burkhead in the fold last year, Lewis still received the lion’s share of the playing time in the backfield, averaging exactly 15 carries per game over the team’s final 10 contests. He also hauled in 25 catches over that same stretch.

There were also five instances last season where both Burkhead and Lewis each surpassed 50 total yards in the same game, demonstrating that the Pats, much like the vast majority of the NFL, are furthering the belief that the days of a bell-cow back are truly coming to an end. (OK, sorry, I see you Le’Veon Bell. You’re a freakin’ machine. OK??)

Also, while there is no doubt that Michel was an absolute FORCE to be reckoned with at the college level – 1,227 rushing yards, 17 total touchdowns, and an out-of-this-world 7.9 yards per carry average (WHAT??!!) last season – he was never truly a bell-cow back himself. Michel only exceeded 156 carries in a season one time in four seasons, and he actually shared a feature role in Georgia’s backfield for the past few years with fellow NFL rookie and Cleveland Browns second-round pick Nick Chubb. He also averaged just 16 receptions per year as a Bulldog, so he is no threat to White’s status either.

Now, I’m not trying to make it seem as though I’m not absolutely amped to see this kid play. (Again, he averaged SEVEN-POINT-EFFING-NINE YARDS PER CARRY last year against the toughest conference in the country.) I’m just saying that people need to temper expectations if they expect him to be the next Zeke Elliott or Leonard Fournette.

Editor’s note: AJ Green begs to differ:

It should also be noted that since 2004, only three guys – BenJarvus Green-Ellis (2010), Stevan Ridley (2012), and LeGarrette Blount (2016) – have toted the rock more than 200 times in a season for the Pats, and there’s no reason to expect that trend to change this season.

While it’s often an exercise in futility to try and predict exactly what Belichick and McDaniels are going to do in any scenario, I am still going to provide you with my completely meaningless 2018 stat prediction for the Pats three-headed monster at running back:

  • Rex Burkhead: 141 carries; 544 yards; 42 catches; 382 yards; 10 total touchdowns
  • Sony Michel: 192 carries; 839 yards; 11 catches; 45 yards; 7 total touchdowns
  • James White: 55 carries; 205 yards; 61 catches; 510 yards; 4 total touchdowns

All I know is, Belichick knows how to use running backs of all shapes, sizes, creeds, and colors; he’s proven it throughout his career. Not since the days of Clock Killin’ Corey Dillon has Bill invested his entire stock into one running back, and he both understands and appreciates the value of having multiple guys who can carry the load.

So no matter what happens, it’s nice to know the Pats shouldn’t be in dire straits without Lewis this season, and it’ll be fun to watch how it all shakes out.

Be sure to check in with The 300s next week for Part 2 of the series!

I’m Not Worried About All the Patriots Injuries, You Are

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The Patriots cruised to a blowout win over the Saints yesterday so its all popsicles and sunshine around here. Kind of. Not to throw cold water on a great victory, but we saw some key players exit the game or clearly playing at less than 100% with various injuries. I’m not yet in panic mode, but this shit has me straight up concerned.

  • Julian Edelman (IR)
  • Malcolm Mitchell (IR)
  • Matthew Slater (OUT – hammy)
  • Danny Amendola (OUT – concussion/knee)
  • Philip Dorsett (came out of the game)
  • Chris Hogan (was in and out of game, severely limping)

“It really, really sucks that Edelman is done for the year, but if there was ever a year to have an injury at receiver, its this year.” I said those words after Edelman went down because we still had Hogan, Amendola, Mitchell, and of course the newly acquired Brandin Cooks. Now? Frighteningly thin. Sure, Brady went out there and had one of his best games ever with fucking fullbacks lining up out wide, but that game had an eerily-2006 feel to it when Brady was basically throwing to trashcans in the AFC championship game.

  • Dont’a Hightower (OUT – knee)

Reports are still pegging this at  2-3 week “minor” injury, but the fact that it happened in Week 1 after the Pats and other teams in Free Agency were concerned with Hightower’s health is not a great sign. If he misses a lengthy period of time, then this Pats defense is cooked against the better teams in this league.

  • Rob Gronkowski (left the game with a groin injury)

Here’s my real-time reaction to Gronk making a reception and taking a hit before gingerly getting up and taking himself out of the game.

And its true, I legit can’t bear to watch the guy take hits anymore because you never know which one is gonna be the one that ends his season this time. But in the sick paradox that is football, its the only way for Gronk to be effective. If he’s not out there being a physical monster, then he’s just not making an impact. It seems like this is a groin injury and not too serious; Gronk said he was “fine” after the game. Thankfully its not the back as Tony Romo pointed out multiple times on the broadcast. Romo’s career was effectively ended by back injuries so this guy knows what he’s talking about, which is scary. Hopefully its just a tweak and Gronk’s back out there next week.

  • Eric Rowe (left the game with a groin injury)

Role players for the Pats (except both started against the Saints) so to see these guys exit the game with injuries is concerning as well. Rowe is the 2nd or 3rd corner depending on what day it is, so to lose that guy for any period of time is a huge hit for the D.

  • Rex Burkhead (left the game with a rib injury)

Burkhead looked like yet another wrinkle in the Pats offense that McDaniels could have some fun with before leaving the game with a rib injury. Its unclear how serious that injury is, but he didn’t return to the game. Sure the Pats have a stable of RBs, but their effectiveness is in the combined efficiency of their diversity, ya know kind of like the Captain Planet Planeteers. So the more of them that are healthy the better off the Pats will be.

So long story short, injuries are starting to pile up for the Patriots and its not even October yet, which has me concerned. Combine the recent injuries with preseason losses like top draft pick Derek Rivers (ACL) and Rob Ninkovich (delicious Bud Lights in retirement and arguing with Felger on TV) and the Pats are getting thinner each week on both sides of the ball. They looked awesome against the Saints, but hopefully some of these injuries clear up or Tom Brady will literally have to carry this team on his back like the old 2006 squad.

The Patriots are Back Tonight to Light the Biggest Fire the North Has Ever Seen

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LETS GOOO. LETS GOOO. Your Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots are back tonight after 7 months without football. Tonight they’re gonna light the biggest fire the north has ever seen.

The last time we saw this team they were lifting the Lombardi Trophy after completing the greatest comeback in NFL history and giving Roger Goodell and the league a gigantic middle finger. As Robert Kraft once said, this one is unequivocally the sweetest.

The Pats had to literally redesign the goddamn stadium to make room for Super Bowl Champs banner No. 5. That is preposterous and tonight we get to see Tom Brady and the boys drop another banner on the rest of the NFL.

It sucks that we lost Julian Edelman for the year with a knee injury, but this team is still stacked. We’ve got Gronk back, added Brandon Cooks, and brought in Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee. Another year in the system for Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell. Dion Lewis, Danny Amendola, Dont’a Hightower, Malcolm Butler, Devin McCourty, Stephon Gilmore, GET OFF THE TRACKS BECAUSE THE TRAIN IS LEAVING THE STATION.

We’re on to Minneaposix. See ya in February.

Adrian Peterson, a 32 Year Old RB Coming Off Knee Surgery, is Shockingly Still a Free Agent

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Yahoo Sports – Adrian Peterson is still waiting. As incomprehensible as it seemed only a few weeks ago, one of the greatest running backs in NFL history is still waiting for significant pursuit one full week into free agency. Largely thanks to a depressed running backs market and Peterson’s age (he turns 32 on Tuesday), the final destination of the seven-time Pro Bowler remains unknown, even as running backs like Eddie Lacy, Latavius Murray, Danny Woodhead and Rex Burkhead each found landing spots before Peterson.

Why does this surprise anyone? Guy is a 32 year old running back coming off KNEE surgery and in the middle of a trial for beating the shit out of his toddler son? Doesn’t exactly seem like a product that would be flying off the shelves like a Malibu Stacy doll.

Look is the guy totally done? I don’t know, but he’s certainly not someone I’m giving much more than the veteran’s minimum to and I’m sure as shit not relying on him to be my go-to RB. So he’s gonna be a guy who will hang around looking for one, last big deal that he’s not going to get. So he’ll end up signing as a backup somewhere else.

This isn’t a “frosty” situation, this is an entirely predictable situation if you just take AP’s name out of the equation. In 2016 Player X rushed for 72 yards in 3 games with an Avg Yards per Attempt of 1.9 and 0 Touchdowns. Then got knee surgery. WHY would that player have a booming free agency market? Yes, I know he rushed for almost 1,500 yards and 11 TD’s the year before, but that will have been 2+ years ago by the time next season starts. When he was 30. Where do RB’s fall off? Yup, after 30. Especially power backs with knee surgeries. So please national media don’t pretend to be surprised with stuff like this, you’re better than that.