Tag: Super Bowl Odds

Patriots Rams SUPER BOWL LIII Preview, Odds, and Predictions

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Photo cred: Roku Blog

Ya know, we really are so incredibly spoiled as Patriots fans.

Just think about it: For the third year in a row – and the ninth time in the past 18 seasons – we’re STILL gearing up for our favorite squad’s upcoming game as the calendar is about to hit February. Not since Buffalo made a run to four-straight Super Bowls in the 1990s has any other group been able to say that, and, in fact, four groups of fans have never had the chance to be in this position. I think it’s pretty well-established by this point that the Pats are quite possibly the greatest dynasty in the history of sports. But I just wanted to provide a friendly little reminder for anyone who forgot. (*He said with a big smirk.*)

All right, enough subtle bragging. Let’s get into the preview.

As always – for those who missed my full breakdown of all the game’s odds and prop bets last week – here’s a quick look at the important game info and latest lines:

  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 3, 6:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Spread*: Patriots -2.5 / Rams -2.5
  • Moneyline*: Patriots -115 / Rams +130
  • Total*: 56.5 (total)

(*All of the information is courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday, January 31.)

Where to begin? Well, for starters, both teams feature top-five offenses which are capable of putting up a lot of points in a hurry, while their defenses sit near the bottom third of the league overall (the Rams are 19th in total defense and the Pats aren’t too far behind at 21). But that does not mean either team is a pushover on the defensive side of the ball; in fact, both sides have Pro Bowlers and/or All-Pros all over the field, including likely NFL Defensive MVP Aaron Donald (Rams), who, in all seriousness, might be one of the greatest defensive lineman to ever play the game. (I’m not kidding.) Don’t also forget that the Pats gave up the seventh-least amount of points per game in the league this season (20.3).

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More on this monster when we get to the storylines.

Again, though, it’s the offensive side of the ball where these two squads really cut their teeth. The Rams were one of three teams to put up over 30 points per game this year (32.9) and can be very explosive; they had the third-most completions over 20 yards this season and averaged the second most yards per play (6.4), only behind Kansas City. The Pats finished fourth in the league with 27.3 points per contest, and their 5.9 yards-per-play mark isn’t all that far behind. The point is: both of these teams know how to move the ball and get into the end zone.

But there’s one pretty notable advantage the Pats have over the Rams on offense, and it should be pretty obvious to even the most casual NFL fans. This will be Tom Brady’s 39th postseason game overall and the ninth time he’s played in the Super Bowl; Jared Goff will be playing in just his fourth playoff game and his first-ever Super Bowl. In fact, Brady has played in as many career postseason games (39) as Goff has played overall career NFL games when you combine regular-season and playoff appearances.

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Goff looked petrified the whole time the two were up on stage together Monday night.

This is the Super Bowl, where experience matters. (Yeah, I know the Eagles pretty much disproved that last year, but I’m going to say that was an aberration.) And I think it’s pretty safe to say the Pats have the upper hand there:

There’s also the whole coaching experience the Pats possess as well. Again, much like Brady, I don’t think I need to waste time waxing poetic about how Bill Belichick is the greatest coach of all-time or talk about how he’s 34 years older than Rams coach Sean McVay, who is only in his second year of running the team. But, as I already pointed out last week, the fact that Belichick has been coaching in the league for over a decade longer than McVay has even been alive is INSANE, and it could certainly present itself as quite important in the game’s biggest moments.

However, McVay truly is an offensive wizard, and you can’t ignore the immense talent the Rams still possess. Fortunately, they may be slightly less talented than they were coming out of the gates this year, as Goff’s binky Cooper Kupp (aka “Julian Edelman Light”) was lost earlier in the year to an ACL tear, and All-World running back Todd Gurley has been slowed by knee issues of his own since the very end of the season. In fact, Gurley touched the ball just five times in the NFC Championship against the Saints for 13 total yards. Yet DO NOT SLEEP ON THIS MAN; he still put up over 1,251 yards on the ground and another 580 receiving this season with 21 total TDs. When healthy, Gurley is probably the top running back in the game right now. (And don’t forget, he’s also had two weeks off to heal up.)

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A fully healed and rested Gurley is capable of taking over any game at any time.

Even if Gurley doesn’t show up, the Rams have C.J. Anderson, who apparently signed a deal with the Devil this winter. After a 1,200-plus-yard effort with Denver last season, Anderson was let go, and for some reason it took forever for him to find a new home. He then signed with Carolina and struggled through nine games as a backup before being cut in early November. Then, just before Christmas, the Rams signed him due to Gurley’s health, and he’s responded with three 100-plus-yard rushing efforts in four games so far, averaging 5.68 yards per carry!

The Rams also have Robert Woods and former Patriot Brandin Cooks as a very solid wide-receiver pairing. Both guys had at least 80 catches, 1,200 yards, and five TDs this season, and they’ll make it tough for the Pats’ secondary to decide who to focus on. (QUICK PREDICTION: The Pats will likely bracket Cooks with one safety over the top due to his deep-threat ability, basically nullifying him as a weapon. In turn, Goff will have to force the ball to Woods more often than he’d like to, causing a costly interception or two.) As I said, it’s no longer a three-headed monster with Cupp out, but Josh Reynolds has still been a decent No. 3 option who is averaging over 18 yards per catch this postseason. As far as tight ends go, they’re pretty unimpressive in that department, and the Pats should be able to lock them down with ease.

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Old friend Cooks will be looking to actually play in the entire Super Bowl this time around.

Now, let’s get into some of the key matchups and other things I’ll be watching out for specifically on Sunday:

(Rams D-Tackles vs. Pats O-Line): I mentioned Aaron Donald at the top of the piece, and yes, he really is THAT good. He compiled 37 sacks through his first four seasons while also proving to be a force against the run, immediately proving himself to be one of the league’s top defenders after being drafted in the first round out of Pittsburgh in 2014. This season, though, he hit other-worldly levels, posting a league-leading 20.5 sacks, which is even more impressive considering he plays mostly from the interior. Michael Brockers has also been an underrated tackle for years, and let’s not forget the Rams also added former All-Pro Ndamukong Suh to the mix this year as well. Other than these guys, though, the Rams aren’t really all that scary up front (though defensive end and former No. 3 overall pick Dante Fowler can be good in spurts). Luckily, though, the Pats O-line has been even better, allowing zero sacks this postseason. As ferocious as Donald is, I’m really not worried about the Rams’ pass-rush in this one.

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The Pats O-line has truly been exceptional, but they haven’t played this guy yet.

(The Rams Secondary vs. the Pats WRs): The strength of the Rams defense is supposed to lie in their secondary. This offseason, along with Suh, the Rams brought in two former All-Pro corners in Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, and most were ready to hand them the Lombardi Trophy before the season even started (myself included). But, for some reason, Peters has actually been just awful at times this season, Talib missed half the year due to injury, and the team finished right in the middle of the pack in terms of pass-coverage. Safety Lamarcus Joyner has probably been their most consistent player back there in 2018, and I’m scared at how confidently I believe in Brady’s ability to carve them up. Also, even though Nickell Robey-Coleman has been one of the league’s best (if not the best) slot corner this year, I still fully expect Edelman to eat him ALIVE in the slot – hopefully he just doesn’t get away with any more B.S. non-calls:

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(Pats Running Game vs. Rams Front Seven): The Pats were able to use all three of Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead against Kansas City, who collectively give them the best stable of backs they’ve had in years. While Michel is undoubtedly the grinder on the ground, the Pats can keep the Rams off balance with a mix of the other two catching balls out of the backfield. The Rams run defense has been a bit inconsistent this year; they kept guys like Ezekiel Elliot, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram to a total of just 98 rushing yards this postseason, but they’d also given up over 100 ground yards in nine-of their-last-10 before that (including one where they surrendered 273 [!!!] and another in which they gave up 194). They also gave up the highest yard-per-carry average (5.1) to opponents this season. Knowing how good the Pats’ pass-blocking has been and the success they’ve seen with running the ball lately, the Rams will probably focus more on stopping the run. Believe it or not, even as bad as the Rams have been against the ground attack this year, I’m still expecting this one to set up much better for White and Burkhead as opposed to Michel. Cory Littleton (125 total tackles) has also been a revelation at linebacker for L.A. this year, and he could be the X-factor for them on defense in this one.

(Rams Running Game vs. the Pats Front Seven): I already mentioned how the Rams feature not only the game’s premier running back in Todd Gurley, but they’ve also received some unreal production out of C.J. Anderson lately as well. Whether Gurley is fully healed and rested in this one or not, Anderson has proven to be more than capable of carrying the load. The Pats have struggled against running backs at times this year, allowing 4.9 yards a tote, but they’ve given up just 60 rushing yards in total this postseason and a total of just 176 combined in the last two games of the regular season. However, Gurley can hurt them as a receiver out of the backfield, which is perhaps the Pats’ biggest area of weakness on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, Chiefs running back Damien Williams posted a solid five-catch, 66-yard, two-TD performance against the team less than two weeks ago. Dont’a Hightower, Elandon Roberts, and Kyle Van Noy are going to need to step their game up big time in this one.

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Van Noy has been one of the team’s best pass-rushers and all-around defensive contributors this season, but he leaves a lot to be desired in terms of pass-coverage. A LOT.

(Watch out for “Greg the Leg”): The Rams have one the league’s top kickers in Greg Zuerlein. He missed a couple games with an injury this year but has otherwise been money for the past three seasons, nailing 90 percent of his attempts over that time (including 95 percent of them last season). Not only is he accurate, but he’s got an incredibly powerful leg that pretty much puts the Rams in scoring position any time they’re on the opponent’s side of the field (10-for-13 on 50-plus-yarders the past two seasons). If the game’s close at the end and the Rams have the ball, this dude could end up being the dagger that takes down the throne.

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This guy can seriously kick the ball to outer space.

Prediction

While both teams are pretty close in terms of talent level, I feel like experience will end up being the key to victory here. Again, I know the Eagles had a first-year head coach and a backup quarterback win them a title last season, but the Pats defense was also really, reaallllyyy bad in that game. This year, they’re much more refined on that side of the ball, and the Rams aren’t playing at full strength. Above all, I just can’t see Jared Goff beating the G.O.A.T. coming off a Super Bowl loss. I just can’t. Edelman, White, and an adrenaline-filled Gronk will lead the way on offense, and the Pats end up winning with a bit more ease than expected, 34-27.

AND DON’T FORGET: Be sure to tune in on Facebook Live this Sunday from 1-3 p.m. – or come hang with us at Oak Square Liquors in Brighton – as The 300s crew brings you our first-ever LIVE podcast, giving you even more predictions, insight, and crazy shenanigans until just hours before kickoff!

Breaking Down the Super Bowl Odds and Prop Bets

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Each week throughout the season, we’ve provided our 300s faithful with detailed game previews along with weekly lines. But truthfully, we haven’t spent much time breaking down spreads or betting odds perhaps as much as we should have.

But that’s all changing now, as there is no more fun time of year to wager a little dough than during the Super Bowl.

The reason why it’s so fun is because of all the prop bets (aka “proposition bets”). Basically, these are bets which allow you to make guesses on what can sometimes be the most obscure things – all the way down to what color Gatorade will be poured on the winning coach – for no reason other than pure degenerateness. (Yes, I’m making up that word.)

Before we get into those, though, here’s a quick overview of the important game info and lines that everyone usually cares about:

  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 3, 6:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Spread*: Patriots -2.5 / Rams -2.5
  • Moneyline*: Patriots -115 / Rams +130
  • Total*: 56.5 (total)

(*All of the information is courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday, January 31.)

First and foremost, if you can get the Pats at -2.5, TAKE IT. That half-point difference is huge, because that means they only need to win by a field goal. For what it’s worth, I like the Pats in this one, so I’d be all over them and that spread. (I know. I know. BIG SURPRISE, right??) As far as the total, I’m very torn; both teams are capable of playing great defense, but they also both have two of the best offenses in the league. Gun to my head, though, I’m taking the over. Who wants to root for a low-scoring, boring Super Bowl anyway?

All right, now let’s get into the fun stuff. Here’s a list of some (but certainly not all) of the best prop bets you can take a stab at for Super Bowl LIII, again courtesy of Odds Shark:

(Side note: Rather than bog you down with the money line for each and every bet, which you can check in the link above, I’m instead going to talk in broad strokes about each one along with which way I think you should go.)

Length of the National Anthem

This is usually one of the more popular ones each year. This year, it will be sung by the legendary Gladys Knight, and the over/under is set at 1:47. The all-time record for the longest rendition of the classic tune is held by Alicia Keys, after her epic 156.4-second performance in 2013. (That’s over two-and-a-half minutes.) On the flip side, Kelly Clarkson lasted just over a minute-and-a-half the year before. Keys was also using a piano during her performance, and perhaps that helped her drag it out a little. Knight – another soulful, powerful voice – might be able to use those pipes to belt out some long notes, but I bet she just barely finishes under the mark. The pick: under.

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What you got in store for us, Gladys?

Coin Toss

This is literally a 50/50. And regardless of what others try to tell you, past history has absolutely ZILCH to do with it. I’m honestly just spitballing here. The pick: heads.

How Many Times Will Broadcast Mention Sean McVay’s Age?

For those who don’t know, Sean McVay is the Rams 32-year-old head coach, who is now in his second year running the team. It’s actually pretty insane to see how much success he’s had so far, as most guys aren’t even lucky enough to get their first coordinator gig after only just entering their third decade on Earth. The fact that he’s going against the 66-year-old Bill Belichick – who’s been coaching in the league for over a decade longer than McVay has even been alive – is something that the network will OBSESS over, ad nauseam. The over/under is set at 1.5, so they literally only need to say it more than once for the over to hit. This might be the easiest prop bet of the night. The pick: over.

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What Will Be the Predominant Color of Adam Levine’s Top at the Halftime Show?

Again, some of those prop bets are just absurd, but what the hell? I’ll bite. It’s also pretty much a 50/50 choice, as the options are “black” or “any other color.” A quick Google search shows that Maroon 5’s leading man LOVES wearing black shirts. But, this is the freakin’ Super Bowl. You gotta show out! Plus, he’ll probably want to prove all the haters wrong, as I’m sure they are fully expecting him to wear the same old thing. The pick: any other color. (BONUS BET: You can also bet on whether or not he’ll be wearing a hat. I don’t think I’ve ever seen the dude wearing one, so I’m going to go with “no.”)

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See, it’s happened before.

How Many Songs Will Be Played at the Halftime Show?

The over under is set at 7.5. I couldn’t really find any stats on the average amount of songs played per halftime show in the past, and every artist is different. At first, I thought 7.5 seemed like too many. HOWEVER, Maroon 5 will be joined by both Big Boi AND Travis Scott, who will both also want some shine on their stuff as well. I’m going to say it’s a bunch of short clippings from all three. The pick: over.

OK, now it’s time to step away from the silly stuff and talk about some bets that involve the actual action on the field.

Will a Non-QB Throw a Touchdown?

This is usually a very easy “no” in most NFL games. But this isn’t just “any” game, and these aren’t just “any” two offenses. McVay and Josh McDaniels are two of the best and brightest offensive minds in the game right now, and they’re going to throw everything they’ve got out there in this one. Still, I don’t think either will get quite that cute with it. The pick: no.

Will Any QB Throw for 400 or More Yards?

Jared Goff is not throwing for over 400 yards. He’s just not. Not against this defense. Not on any planet. I’m not saying Goff’s a slouch, and he’s actually surpassed the mark two different times this season. But he’s not doing it on February 3. Bank on it. But what about Brady? Well, he’s actually already done so twice in the Super Bowl; he had 466 yards against Atlanta in 2017, and he passed for over 500 (!) yards against the Eagles last year. The Rams have a really good defense, though, and they kept Drew Brees and the Saints’ high-powered attack at bay last week. The pick: no.

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The kid isn’t going gangbusters on us in this one.

Will Either Team Not Punt During the Game?

This is an interesting one. Again, these are two top-five offenses this year, and the Pats were money on that side of the ball last week in Kansas City. Los Angeles, however, wasn’t quite as spectacular, and they have a 24-year-old QB playing on the biggest stage in the world. And even as good as the Pats have looked lately, I don’t think either side will be flawless in this one. The pick: no. (Be careful here; the bet is asking if any team will “NOT” punt during the game. Semantics, people!)

Will Both Teams Combine to Score 76 or More Points, Breaking the Super Bowl Record?

I did say earlier that I like the over in this one, but 76 is a bit much. Both teams would need to score into the 30s, or at least one would need to score well into the 40s to hit the mark. As good as these offenses are, the defense on both sides is no joke. The pick: no.

Will There Be a Penalty for Roughing the Passer?

With everyone outside of New England being up in arms about the ticky-tack roughing the passer called against the Chiefs at the end of the game last week, OF COURSE this would be a prop bet. The fact that Rams defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is playing in this game ups the chances of this happening by at least 50 percent, but in truth no quarterback is averaging more than 0.36 RTP calls per game against them this season. It really does not happen as much as people think. The pick: no.

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Perhaps no player in the game has taken more cheap shots on opposing passers than this A-hole. But, with so much on the line, maybe he’ll actually behave himself in this one.

Then there are a bunch of scoring-related prop bets which can technically be based upon research, but they’re really more of a crapshoot than anything else. But, just for kicks, here’s a quick rundown of my picks for some of those bets:

  • First TD scorer for the Pats: Sony Michel
  • First TD scorer for the Rams: Brandin Cooks
  • Total TDs combined: Over 6.5
  • Total successful field goals: Under 4.5
  • Team to score longest TD (in terms of yards): Rams
  • Will a special teams or defensive TD be scored: No

And finally…

SUPER BOWL MVP

As much as I’d love James White to win it after getting ROBBED of the award against the Falcons two years ago, or for Rex Burkhead to win it and give me some shred of vindication for predicting him to be the team’s offensive MVP this season, I’m instead going with none other than Tom Brady. (I know. BOORRINNGG.) The man is the whole reason we’re even here, and with the Patriots relying on so many different pieces to keep the offense moving, it almost makes too much sense. Brady goes for 380 yards and four TDs, helping him become the ONLY man to win six rings. (Wooo! I just got the chills.) The pick: Tom Brady.

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This ain’t his first rodeo, guys.

And that still doesn’t cover everything, but hopefully it’s a nice little primer for you as you get set to make your picks for next weekend.

Be sure to stay tuned to the 300s all the way up until kickoff next Sunday for all the best Pats coverage you can find!

Jets Are Now 1,000-1 Odds to Win the Super Bowl; the Worst Odds Ever

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1,000-1. Those are the Jets odds of winning the Super Bowl. The same odds as the Warriors NOT making the playoffs. Insane. Just for comparisons sake, the Patriots odds to win the Super Bowl are currently 11/4. Just slightly better.

I guess if you’re a Jets fan, the one saving grace is that this year they are intentionally bad. Sure if they had really tried they still wouldn’t have been great, but by getting rid of Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Sheldon Richardson and other players they have basically punted on the season. And as painful as this season will be for those dummies in green, its a smart play long term. Especially with a pretty solid looking crop of top QB prospects this year. UCLA’s Josh Rosen looked like a goddamn stud this weekend.

But it is the Jets, so odds are they luck into like 3-4 wins and lose out on a franchise QB. It really is amazing to have witnessed three peaks and valleys in the Jets franchise all while the Patriots have remained consistently dominant the entire time. Think about it. We’ve witnessed the rise (and fall) of Eric Mangini, the Rex Ryan era featuring the roughly 3 year reign of Bart Scott and the mouthy assholes, and most recently the moderately successful 1-year reign of Todd Bowles and Ryan Fitzpatrick before falling back to earth and saying screw it lets be REALLY bad.

All sandwiched between a mere 5 Patriots Super Bowl victories. What a goddamn shadow over the New York Jets of New Jersey.