Category: NFL

Cam Newton is a Patriot. What Should We Realistically Expect?

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As you all have heard by now the Patriots did the most Patriots thing ever this week and signed a former elite player on a massively team friendly deal. The marriage of Cam Newton and the Patriots is not something I expected, but I also was told by the Boston media all offseason how high the team was on Jarrett Stidham with Brian Hoyer being the adult in the room for at least a little while. Welp, it seems like Belichick had merely been eyeing a fancy new toy for months just waiting for the price to drop before finally deciding to pull the trigger. Newton comes to New England on an incentive laden one-year prove it deal as the signal caller looks to bounce back from an injury shortened season last year.

Jarrett Stidham’s head must be spinning right now. The heir apparent to the Patriots QB1 only had to beat out veteran journeyman Hoyer to earn the job. Now he’s got Hoyer and a former league MVP boxing him out of the starting gig. Stidham took a road trip to Texas with the wife and got Wally Pipped before he even got off the Pike. Stidham checking his ESPN notifications and seeing the Newton signing:

By the way, this also goes to show you to never, ever, ever discount what the wise guys are saying in Vegas. Oddsmakers had the Patriots as the favorites to sign Newton months ago and we all thought what the hell are they talking about? Whoops.

Julian Edelman seems to already be on board with the former MVP coming to Gillette though.

Using the infamous and ridiculous Cam Newton font in his post legitimately made me laugh out loud.

Although Tom Brady was immediately in Edelman’s comments like an ex-girlfriend trying to honey dick him.

You left Jules, Tom! Let him be happy with someone else.

I’ve been a big fan of Ham Newton’s game ever since his days at Auburn when he crushed my dreams as a Boston based Oregon stan in the National Championship. So I’m pretty excited to see what one of the most dynamic QBs in the game can do with the best coach in the history of the league.

KEY STATS

People point to Newton’s career 59% completion percentage as a reason why he won’t fit here, but I fully expect the Pats to run the snot out of the ball this year. They were already trending that way the last couple of seasons, drafting Sony Michel in the first round, and this past offseason using the franchise tag to bring back Left Tackle Joe Thuney. Now factor in that Newton’s completion % is nearly 10% higher on play action than it is on non-play action plays. His completion percentage on play action is 68%, which will pick teams apart if the Pats can develop a decent running game in 2020.

If the Pats do want to jam Newton into the Tom Brady quick, short pass offense? His accuracy is not as good as Brady’s (Brady is 63% career), but their time holding onto the ball and average yards per throw is surprisingly close. In 2018 (Newton’s last *almost* full season with 14 games) Cam averaged 2.69 Time to Throw compared to Brady’s 2.62 seconds and 5 Completed Air Yards compared to Brady’s 5.6. He also had a Passer Rating of 94.2 compared to Brady’s 97.7 with a Completion Percentage of 67.9 compared to Brady’s 65.8.

Tom Brady is the GOAT and my favorite athlete of all time, but Cam Newton is not a bad replacement if healthy. Newton also only threw two more picks than Brady despite having an Aggressiveness % of 17.2 to Brady’s 13.9. And if that stat is entirely new to you as it is one I found that fits my agenda, have no fear: “Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts.”

INJURY HISTORY

As with any player, especially at QB, a recent injury history like Newton’s is alarming. Pats Pulpit does a great job of breaking it down extensively, but here are the spark notes.

  • January 2019 – Shoulder surgery on his throwing arm
  • December 2019 – Foot surgery for a Lisfranc fracture
  • 2014 – Ankle Surgery

It’s not an overly lengthy injury history, but it is a very recent one. Shoulder and foot injuries for a 31-year-old mobile QB are not ideal. Thats why he was available though and the last thing you want to do is repeat the Dolphin’s fatal mistake when they passed on Drew Brees in 2006 because of his shoulder injury. They went with Daunte Culpepper instead and have sucked for the past 14 years, meanwhile the Saints took a chance and won a Super Bowl as Brees flourished into a Hall of Famer.

FIT WITH PATS

As I mentioned earlier, this Patriots team already seemed poised to run the hell out of the ball so bringing in Cam Newton makes sense as they could utilize any of their half dozen runningbacks (is Damien Harris still alive and well?) and run the old Full House package from Madden ad nauseum. I don’t expect the Patriots to morph into an RPO team overnight like the Ravens did with Lamar Jackson, but I do expect a ton of Shotgun and spreading the defense out so Newton can utilize his strengths.

I honestly think James White might catch 100 balls this year (career high 87 in 2018). Newton looves throwing to his runningbacks. Sure he’s had the best RB in the game in Christian McCaffrey, but Newton threw to his RB1 more and more each year. From 2016-2019 McCaffrey had 80, 107, and 116 receptions on 113, 124, and a whopping 142 targets last year. Somewhat surprisingly that was *only* 8th in the NFL in total targets, but it also was 34 (!) more than any other RB in the game.

Obviously the Patriots have not had a mobile quarterback really ever, even before Brady, but when you see the actual numbers compared to Newton it is jarring.

Mobile quarterbacks have only very recently started to find success in the NFL so it clearly never hurt the Patriots before, but adding this element to their offense will be a welcome bonus to having Newton under center.

Mike Reiss said on ESPN the other day he believes the Pats will keep their offense 75% the same with about 25% changed to suit Newton.

Lets not forget that Josh McDaniels did in fact draft Tim Tebow in the first round back in 2010 while he was the HC in Denver. The Pats also had some fun with their most mobile quarterback since Doug Flutie when Jacoby Brissett was forced into emergency starting duties against the Texans in 2016. The Pats ran some RPO and Brissett ran the ball 10 times that game, including this 30 yard TD on a designed QB run.

And Brissett’s not even a mobile quarterback! He just looked that way compared to the Clydesdale that is TB12. Cam Newton ran a 4.59 40 yard dash at the combine compared to Brissett’s 4.94. Granted Newton has since had foot surgery, but my point is the Pats had a great game plan for a guy that runs a slower 40 time than me. Imagine what kind of damage they can do with a guy like Newton?

EXPECTATIONS

I’ve said in the past that watching Newton last year he looked cooked, but coming off a shoulder surgery less than a year prior and then injuring his foot really decimated any chance he had of stepping into throws. Not to mention his ability to scramble, so its no surprise he looked terrible. But Cam was great as recently as 2018 even though his season was cut short after 14 games with the shoulder injury. In 2018 Newton threw for 3,400 yards, 24 TDs, 13 INTs, 67.9% completion percentage, 94.2 Rating, with 488 yards rushing and 4 TDs. A far cry from his MVP year, but this is also with him throwing to his runningback, DJ Moore, Devin Funchess, Jarius Wright, Curtis Samuel, something called Ian Thomas, and a 33-year-old Greg Olsen. Not a ton of household names in there outside of McCaffrey.

CBS Sports’ Will Brinson was on Toucher and Rich this week calling Cam the greatest QB in league history and is *very* high on the fit.

“I think if Cam is healthy, Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick will unleash a really lethal offense…Rob Gronkowski is the second greatest red zone threat in league history and Cam Newton is No. 1 because he can run the ball.”

Although would it surprise me if Belichick just up and decides it’s not working and cuts Newton in training camp? With an incentive laden one-year contract, it would not shock me. I’d hate to see that happen though because this is the most excited I’ve been to watch the Patriots since Brady left for Tampa.

The fit remains to be seen, but I think Newton is DYING to prove he is still an elite QB in a league that is now littered with mobile QBs. Newton was the prototype so it must really piss him off to see half a dozen QBs winning with his blueprint. He wants to prove he is still the alpha and if he is fully healthy, motivation will not be a problem so I am excited to see what Belichick and McDaniels do with him.

JERSEY TIME?

I have to admit, I was pretty meh on the new Pats jerseys when they came out, but I think part of that was probably with Brady leaving town there wasn’t really any other players that made me want to buy a $100 jersey. I already have an Edelman jersey, Devin McCourty flirts with retirement more and more these days, Dont’a Hightower is also on the wrong side of 30. I love Chase Winovich, but I need to see him on the field more before I even think about elevating him to jersey status. N’Keal Harry needs to catch about a dozen touchdowns this year to get into this conversation. So who does that leave? Maybe Stephon Gilmore? I guess if I had to pull the trigger it would be either White (a Super Bowl hero) or Patrick Chung (a longtime Patriot who does anything and everything). BUT, I gotta say, this looks pretty sexy.

I have a rule that I don’t buy jerseys of players unless they have recently signed a contract extension so as to not end up with another Sergei Samsonov jersey that immediately became a throwback about a week after I bought it. But if Ham Newton has 10 touchdowns in September, it’s going to be pretty hard to keep my credit card in my pocket. Even if he is only on a one-year contract.

Would still be a better jersey to won than the two *different* guys I’ve seen wearing John Lynch Patriots jerseys in Allston over the years (Lynch retired before the start of the 2008 season).

Or maybe the injuries have finally caught up to a guy who has absolutely abused his body for the past decade and Newton really is cooked. Well its a win-win situation for the Pats. They get a 31-year-old, hyper motivated former MVP QB, who will not be fazed in the slightest about replacing a legend and ultimately dominates with a fresh start OR we get A+ fashion shows every week that will provide weeks worth of content.

Like I said, win-win.

Tom From Toonami Should File a Cease and Desist Against the NFL for These COVID Helmet Designs

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My first thought after seeing these helmet designs is that Tom from Toonami is currently filing a cease and desist against the NFL.

And if you’re too young to get that reference or never watched Toonami on Cartoon Network, then I pity you. Tom used to get me jacked up for all my nerdy anime as a kid. Pretty sure Toonami is singlehandedly responsible for every asshole with an internet connection and iMovie creating their own anime emo rock compilations and uploading them to Napster.

Now back to these space helmets that may or may not be a real thing. Obviously these are designed with player safety in mind as it relates to COVID because players can’t be wearing cotton masks made my Melissa from Etsy. I would however love to hear from the crowd that wanted to ban helmets entirely in an effort to stop defenders from launching into receivers with their heads. How about this astronaut helmet to discourage players from pretending they’re a land to air missile? Damned if you do, damned if you don’t I suppose.

Well, if this helps get players back on the field and brings the NFL back to this sports-less post-apocalyptic world then I am all for it. It’ll be nearly impossible to top the greatest helmet in league history though.

PS – I also just learned that apparently Cartoon Network legitimately killed Tom off? Like straight up gatted him. Wow. RIP brother.

Lets Talk About What Nobody Wants to Talk About

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It’s been difficult to write much the last week while the country is gripped in protests, riots, civil unrest, and let us not forget about the coronavirus pandemic thats killed more than 100,000 people. 2020 has been the year from hell and the murder of George Floyd was the tipping point for many Americans.

In times like these we typically turn towards sports to help heal the rawest of wounds. It sounds silly, but it’s true. Sports has always been the unifying force that society uses to bring people of all different backgrounds together, if only for a couple of hours.

I’m torn on this because sports have unified people during horrific times like 9/11 and helped kickstart difficult conversations after tragedies like Eric Garner’s death, but maybe not having sports right now is for the best? Without any sports to speak of theres nothing for us to turn our attention towards. We’re all stuck at home and forced to have the difficult conversations that sometimes we’re all too quick to turn the page on.

The 24/7 news cycle never sleeps, but it seems like as a nation we’re all focusing on the same exact thing right now. We may fall on different sides of the issue, but we’re all talking about the same issue, which is how progress begins.

A lot of people are learning, and hopefully growing, in real time. Drew Brees faced the swift wrath of not just twitter, but his own teammates and peers from around the NFL after he denounced protestors kneeling during the anthem.

…and then apologized less than 24 hours later. Life comes at you fast, Drew. It was a shockingly tone deaf statement from one of the faces of the NFL. It’s been 3+ years since Colin Kaepernick started kneeling during the National Anthem to protest police brutality, but plenty of people, Drew Brees front and center, still think it’s about the military or “disrespecting the flag.”

I don’t know what kind of reaction Brees expected from these comments during what may be the height of racial tensions in my lifetime, but he has, unsurprisingly, been getting ripped by players across the league including by his own No. 1 receiver, Michael Thomas.

Malcolm Jenkins put out a heartbreaking video directly responding to Brees’ comments and effectively telling him to just shut up and listen.

The McCourty twins eviscerated Drew Brees for leaning on the military as a reason for denouncing the kneeling protestors.

Brees issued a lengthy apology this morning, less than 24 hours after his original comments, but I find it hard to believe he was this glib to begin with so the apology does ring a bit hollow. Hopefully Brees and everyone who sees this exchange use it as a learning experience.

We try to not get too political here, but after hearing the pain in the voices of some of my black friends it would be selfish to not use the minuscule platform we have here to at least say something. I’m a white guy in his thirties so I’ll never know what it’s like to be a black man in America, but one of the main things I heard from friends of mine is to simply see and acknowledge our differences. Saying you “don’t see color” is misguided because that only blinds you to the issues that people of different races experience on a daily basis. It’s important to see, and celebrate, the differences between us all. Ignoring those differences may be done with good intentions, but it takes away from our ability to use any privilege we do have to help, even if its just calling out a friend or a family member on their shit.

I’ll leave you with this video that former Eagles linebacker Emmanuel Acho put out yesterday: Uncomfortable Conversations With a Black Man

This ESPN Tom Brady Documentary is Going to Break Me

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Talk about conflicting emotions watching this teaser for Tom Brady’s upcoming documentary, Man in the Arena. This is the type of stuff that was better than porn in my household for the last 20 years: The Brady 6, The Great Brady Heist, Tom vs Time. I could go on and on, hell I wrote a full blog about exactly this: A List of the Top Tom Brady Documentaries, Cameos, and Skits to Watch While Self Quarantining. Watching this now though is bittersweet knowing Brady is no longer a Patriot. Hopefully the NFL is able to play games this season, but even if they are my favorite player of all time is down in Florida and it’s not in a retirement home.

A lot of New England fans hold a grudge against Brady for leaving and while I am upset he left, I can’t hold it against the guy after everything he’s done for this franchise. He became the greatest player of all time with what amounts to two Hall of Fame careers, won 6 Super Bowls, and turned the Patriots into the most successful dynasty in league history. So if after 20 years of working for a hard ass like Belichick he finally had enough and wanted to enjoy himself a bit more, as a person I get that.

I can’t believe he’s partnering with ESPN for this though. Especially after the success of Tom vs Time on Facebook. On the one hand, if I was Tom Brady and the media brand that tried to smear my reputation and destroy my career multiple times asked to partner with me on a documentary I would tell them to go piss up a rope. On the other hand, Brady is trying to get his 199 Productions studio running at full speed right out of the gate and ESPN is is the Worldwide Leader so it makes business sense. I’d rather tell ESPN to kick rocks than go into business with them if I’m Brady, but I guess this is why I wouldn’t be a very good politician.

But my god get the tissues ready because this documentary is going to break me. I feel like my Perfect 10 girlfriend left me and I’ve just been avoiding those emotions for months pretending nothing happened. I advise everyone to take Bill Burr’s sage advice on how to handle a breakup and deal with the little things:

Dolphins Announce Plan for Fans to Attend Games Amidst COVID-19 and Social Distancing Concerns

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Yahoo – Hard Rock Stadium can hold around 65,000 fans, but Garfinkel said it might be closer to a 15,000-fan maximum this season to adjust to social distancing and to keep everyone safe. The Center for Disease Control (CDC) currently recommends keeping six feet (two arms lengths) from other people and to avoid crowded places and mass gatherings.

The team would also schedule arrivals and assist with exiting after the game. The plans include fans being required to wear masks...The examples show colored spots on the ground to show what six feet of distancing looks like, not unlike what grocery stores have done near registers to keep from having a mass crush of people together in one spot.

Attendees would order food from their seats and leave to pick it up instead of waiting in line, just as people are doing elsewhere with curbside pickup.

I’m holding out hope for some semblance of sports to resume later this summer, but I’m not exactly optimistic. By all accounts, it would seem our best bet of sports returning any time soon is some form of games without fans in attendance. Even that has plenty of hurdles to overcome, most of which revolve around logistics. The NBA has kicked around the idea of every team playing a tournament in Las Vegas, while basically on lockdown in a bubble. MLB has considered restructuring leagues and having teams play games in just a handful of Spring Training stadiums to reduce cross country travel, but even that would require players to be away from their families for four months straight. So every story you read about how or when sports can return leaves me with a pretty bleak outlook.

However, a failure to plan is a plan to fail so teams are doing their due diligence and trying to figure out how exactly they could safely allow fans back in the stadiums.

The Dolphins came out with a proposed plan of how to safely bring back fans once the government gives the green light and it has a serious dystopian future vibe.

  • 15,000 fans allowed in the stadium (compared to 65,000 normally)
  • All fans required to wear masks
  • Order food and drinks from your seats rather than waiting in line
  • Staggered arrival times and exiting “much like a church environment, where each row exits so people aren’t filing out all at the same time in a herd.”

Before all this I was a borderline germaphobe, so I am not going to be one of the first fans jumping through hoops just to pay $200 to attend a game in person. Sports on TV would be more than enough for me right now, but you know plenty of people are dying to get out of the house and return to something resembling normal.

Who knows, maybe this becomes the preferred way of going to a game and it acts like a form of EZ-Pass. With just 15,000 people and assigned entrance times you could just breeze into town and right up to your seat. Anyone who has been to a Pats game in the last decade knows its a 3 hour tour just getting out of the parking lot and back home after a game. OR the demand for tickets will go through the roof because of the limited supply and we’ll all look back and laugh at how cheap $200 Patriots tickets were before COVID.

It’s crazy to think about how the next Patriots home game could look more like a college lacrosse game with less than a quarter of the seats filled, and have it not be because Tom Brady’s gone. It’s going to take a long time for things to return to normal, if at all, depending on how long the coronavirus lingers. So until then we’ll have to take what we can get as everything from our offices to bars and restaurants to concerts and games at Gillette Stadium slowly figures out how to bring people back together once again.

Patriots Fullback James Develin Announces His Retirement

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Patriots fan favorite fullback James Develin announced his retirement out of nowhere this afternoon on Instagram. It’s a damn shame because the neck injury that ended his 2019 season after just two games seems to still be lingering.

“Due to unforeseen complications with the injury that ended my season last year, I have decided it is both in my and my family’s best interest to retire from the game of football,” Devlin wrote. “I’ve always maintained a belief that in the sport, the team is MUCH more important than myself as an individual … and that belief still rings true, as I have to prioritize my team at home before anything else.”

Develin retires after a 7 year career in which he helped the Patriots develop a legitimate edge in the running game. Develin was a rarity in today’s NFL as fewer teams even utilize the FB position than ever before. He was an absolute monster clearing lanes for Sony Michel en route to a Super Bowl title in 2018 for a Pats team that leaned more heavily on the run than any team in recent memory.

A real life Danny Bateman with the neckroll and everything, James Develin was a true throwback.

He wasn’t a complete meathead like most fullbacks though, Develin earned a degree in mechanical engineering at Brown.

Develin also got robbed of a Super Bowl MVP, and a potential down payment on a house if you hit the bet, if you remember correctly

Best of luck to you in your post playing career James, you were a blast to watch and we’ll miss ya.

Full statement below:

Some Devlin highlights

Lets Break Down the Patriots’ 2020 Draft Picks

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I am not a draft expert nor do I do enough research to put together mock drafts like some of the other bloggers here at The 300s, but hindsight is more fun anyways. With that being said, I have a pretty wait and see type attitude on the draft because it’s impossible to grade a draft before anyone even laces up their Nikes. Anyone who says they know otherwise is lying to you.

1st Round: Patriots trade the No. 22 pick to the Charges for two 3rd rounders, No. 37 and No. 71

Least surprising (non) pick of the draft, which doesn’t make it any less frustrating for everyone waiting for the Patriots to pick for 3 hours before they traded out. Schefter also said the Pats could still get the guy they wanted at No. 37 instead of picking him at No. 22. Well I guess give them credit for not reaching on their first pick THIS far, but maybe that says more about overvaluing a guy a bit much? Remains to be seen.

2nd Round No. 37: Lenoir-Rhyne S – Kyle Dugger (6’2″ 220 lbs):

Their first pick of the night was a safety from a Division II school I’ve never even heard of. At first glance this seems like an absolutely bananas reach, but most mock drafts didn’t have Dugger too much lower than where the Pats took him. From all the reports I’ve read he seems to be a freak athlete with the ability to float around position-wise on the field plus he returns punts, which the Pats desperately need someone besides Edelman to do well. All things that Belichick loves. At 6’2″ he adds another big body at corner for the Pats next to 6’1″ Stephon Gilmore and 6’3″ Joejuan Williams. Projects to be an eventual replacement for Patrick Chung and could likely drop down to cover tight ends like Chung.

Also, Scott Zolak shamed anyone for shitting on a Division II player because of his experience playing with a DII player himself.

2nd Round No. 60: Michigan LB Josh Uche (6’3″ 226 lbs):

Uche is an undersized edge guy who didn’t start a game at Michigan until his senior year, which doesn’t sound great, but is a high ceiling freak athlete who excelled at the Senior Bowl against other top competition. He also has the positional flexibility to play LB or on the line, which the Pats love.

3rd Round No. 87: Alabama DE Anfernee Jennings (6’3″ 259 lbs):

First Team All-SEC at Bama so I’m good with this one. Seems like the Pats may have a role in mind for Jennings already.

3rd Round No. 91: UCLA TE Devin Asiasi (6’3″ 279 lbs):

This team is BARREN at tight end so I expect Asiasi to compete for the starting role Day 1 if he can pick up the playbook.

3rd Round No. 101: Virginia Tech TE Dalton Keene (6’4″ 253 lbs):

Dalton “The Cooler” Keene. Dalton “Pain Don’t Hurt” Keene. This kid better have seen Roadhouse because I am not referring to him as anything other than Swayze references from here on out. People complained the Patriots did nothing to plan for life after Gronk last year so this year they went ahead and drafted two tight ends back to back in the 3rd. Seems aggressive, but the Pats got next to nothing out of the position last year and had one of the worst tight end groups in the league (37 catches, 2 TDs). The Pats haven’t taken two tight ends in the same draft, let alone back to back, since the Gronk/Hernandez draft in 2010.

5th Round No. 159: Marshall K Justin Rohrwasser (6’3″ 230 lbs):

Kicker was a big need for the Pats after the debacle last season and cutting Gostkowski this offseason. Taking a kicker in the fifth round though is questionable. Taking a kicker that wasn’t really on anyone’s board also isn’t ideal. Oh and apparently there wasn’t even much game film of him except for a few YouTube clips. Sweet! Before the next pick was even in though the internet had descended on Rohrwasser for a tattoo on his arm that apparently symbolizes some right wing gun nut group the 3 Percenters. Jemelle Hill wasted no time in labeling his a white supremacist. Rohrwasser quickly denied that he supported the group saying he didn’t understand what the tat meant and he’d be getting it covered up. A bad look for the kid out of the gate, but not entirely unbelievable. He also had a questionable IG post about a controversial public speaker. Not a great start, but maybe we give the kid more than five minutes in the public eye before collectively deciding to #cancel him.

6th Round No. 182: Michigan OG Mike Onwenu (6’3″ 350 lbs):

6th Round No. 195: Wake Forest OL Justin Herron (6’5″ 305 lbs):

Herron was a four year starter and a team captain at Wake Forest last year.

6th Round No. 204: Wyoming LB Cassh Maluia (6′ 248 lbs):

Absolute MONEY name. Mike Reiss projects him as a special teamer.

7th Round No. 230: Memphis C Dustin Woodard (6’2″ 291 lbs):

Numbers lie, but the numbers around Woodward are pretty damn great if you believe Pro Football Focus.

My biggest gripe with this draft was that the Patriots didn’t take a single WR in a loaded receiver class or a single QB even as guys like Jake Fromm continued to slide. It seems like Bill is pretty comfortable with Stidham throwing to the current depth chart of Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry, Mohamed Sanu, and Jacoby Meyers. Not terrible, but it also wasn’t enough last year with Tom Brady throwing to them. So hopefully the combination of a young QB actually throwing to fellow young players, the addition of a couple tight ends, Sanu getting healthy, oh and the addition (for now) of WR Marquise Lee is a serviceable receiver core.

Almost as if he could hear all of our bitching from his place on Nantucket, Bill then signed two quarterbacks, four receivers, and another pair of tight ends (not including Thaddeus Moss) immediately following the draft. All four receivers are 5’11” or shorter though as the team may be looking to plan for the future at slot.

Undrafted free agents signed by the Patriots (via Patriots.com)

  • QB Brian Lewerke, Michigan State (6’2″, 213 lbs)
  • QB J’Mar Smith, Louisiana Tech (6′, 228 lbs)
  • WR Will Hastings, Auburn (5’10”, 175 lbs)
    • This one intrigues me the most as Hastings was Jarret Stidham’s go to slot receiver at Auburn.
  • WR Sean Riley, Syracuse (5’8″, 178 lbs)
  • WR Isaiah Zuber, Mississippi State (5’11”, 184 lbs)
  • WR Jeff Thomas, Miami (5’9″, 170 lbs)
  • TE Rashod Berry, Ohio State (6’3″, 263 lbs)
  • TE Jake Burt, Boston College (6’3″, 260 lbs)
    • Hey a guy I’ve actually seen play in person before! He also got a pretty big signing bonus so the Pats clearly see something.
  • RB J.J. Taylor, Arizona (5’5″, 185 lbs)
    • As a fellow short, I love this pickup. The little wrecking ball racked up over 3,000 rushing yards in college so he’s not just a third down guy.
  • DT Bill Murray, William & Mary (6’4″, 280 lbs)
  • DE Nick Coe, Auburn (6’4″, 280 lbs)
  • DE Trevon Hill, Miami (6’3″, 248 lbs)
  • LB Kyahva Tezino, San Diego State (6′, 235 lbs)
  • LB De’Jon Harris, Arkansas (5’11”, 234 lbs)
    • “Per NESN, the Patriots gave Harris a significant deal to join the team, perhaps illustrating how high his chances are to make the team as an Elandon Roberts, early-down linebacker replacement.”
  • CB Myles Bryant, Washington (5’7″, 183 lbs)

Are the Patriots Going to Trade Up for Tua Tagovailoa?

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NFL mock drafts are largely useless, except The 300s Mock Draft from Mattes, but nobody really knows what the hell is going to happen in the draft. Joe Burrow is definitely going No. 1 overall, but after that its anyones guess which way the draft unfolds. With that being said there has been some chatter around the potential of the Patriots going against everyone’s expectations and trading up to draft Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa.

Is that really a possibility?

Over at Pro Football Talk Peter King has the Patriots trading up to No. 13 to snag a sliding Tua after the Dolphins take Oregon QB Justin Herbert at No. 5. Well that would assume Detroit (could use a young QB), Jacksonville (could definitely use a QB), and the Chargers (Tyrod Taylor is QB1 right now) all pass on him. Even with the medical red flags considered, I find that pretty hard to believe. King’s breakdown of the scenario below:

Ben Volin also has the Patriots trading all the way up to No. 3 to draft Tua, which would require an absolute truck load of picks and/or players.

I don’t think that would even be enough to get up to No. 3, especially considering Thuney’s on the franchise tag for one year at $15M.

In the past 20 years Belichick has traded up in the first round four times, but not since 2012 when he traded up twice to land Dont’a Hightower and Chandler Jones. They do have 12 draft picks and obviously BB loves to wheel and deal having made 77 draft day trades over the years so the Pats will likely be moving one way or the other.

On Sports Illustrated Bert Breer has the Dolphins taking Justin Herbert at No. 5 and Tua going No. 6 overall to the Chargers, but hedges by saying it’s a hunch because the Chargers GM Tom Telesco is “as cagey as they come.” Meaning they could legitimately take a Tackle here and ride with Tyrod Taylor at QB or it could just be the Chargers trying to throw people off the scent. Breer does go on to say though,

“And if Tagovailoa doesn’t go here? I really don’t know how far he’ll fall.”

That would seem to be the prime scenario for the Patriots and potentially fit in with King’s prediction. Tua slides a bit so the Pats don’t have to give up the farm to trade into the Top 5. Maybe Tua does fall to No. 13 and Bill swings a deal with San Francisco who just so happen to owe the Pats a franchise QB after the Jimmy G deal.

And with reports of the Patriots being nowhere close to an extension with Joe Thuney, who they franchise tagged, maybe he gets included to sweeten the deal for SF along with a few picks. This almost makes too much sense because what kind of team is going to trade for a guard on a one year $15 million deal? Oh I don’t know, maybe a team that feels like it’s on the cusp of a title and maybe even lost a close one in the Super Bowl last year?

The biggest knock on Tua leading up to the Draft has obviously been his health after dislocating his hip last season at Alabama. He’s also has had surgery on both of his ankles and has broken his wrist twice.

Belichick has NEVER been shy about drafting guys in the first round with blatant injury histories though, sometimes bordering on malpractice as the GM. Sony Michel has been on the field, but already had a repaired ACL when the Pats took him in 2018 and just this past offseason had a “minor” knee surgery quietly. In 2014 Dominique Easley already had two ACL tears when he was coming out of Florida and wouldn’t ya know it, could never stay on the field for the Pats because of ACL injuries. So don’t let injury history make you think Belichick won’t take a guy with potential because he will.

Plus then we have the well known Belichick mouthpiece Michael Lombardi with this quote below.

“That’s got to get around, that at least one team failed the physical on Tua,” Lombardi said on The GM Shuffle podcast. “Others have to be concerned now as well. … It’s not just his hip. … I mean, he’s brittle. You can’t deny it. … Look, I’m not disputing the evaluation. I’m saying that they flunked him on not just the hip [but] on the multitude of injuries. The risk far outweighs the reward.”

Is that Bill using an NFL media pundit to try and tank Tua’s stock value around the league?

Jesus christ did I just talk myself into Bill Belichick trading up to draft an injury prone QB? I think I did. If Tua slides and the team can get him without completely mortgaging the future with a Ricky Williams type trade then I say absolutely do it. I’m of the mindset that you should draft a QB every single year because they’re that valuable. Throw as many darts at the board as possible until you hit the bullseye because until then it doesn’t really matter how strong the rest of your roster is. With Tom Brady gone, that should be a draft strategy the Patriots strongly consider. Does Tua’s injury history and size concern me? Sure, but this is also a league that just saw a 5’9″ guy in Kyler Murray go No. 1 overall last year as QBs get hit less and less every year. Tua’s ceiling is so high as he was the hands down No. 1 pick heading into last season and was the 1A after Joe Burrow’s monster year before his hip injury. So if you can get him without completely hamstringing yourself, do it.

Scared money don’t make no money.