Tag: Buccaneers

Cam Newton is a Patriot. What Should We Realistically Expect?

By on • ( Leave a comment )

As you all have heard by now the Patriots did the most Patriots thing ever this week and signed a former elite player on a massively team friendly deal. The marriage of Cam Newton and the Patriots is not something I expected, but I also was told by the Boston media all offseason how high the team was on Jarrett Stidham with Brian Hoyer being the adult in the room for at least a little while. Welp, it seems like Belichick had merely been eyeing a fancy new toy for months just waiting for the price to drop before finally deciding to pull the trigger. Newton comes to New England on an incentive laden one-year prove it deal as the signal caller looks to bounce back from an injury shortened season last year.

Jarrett Stidham’s head must be spinning right now. The heir apparent to the Patriots QB1 only had to beat out veteran journeyman Hoyer to earn the job. Now he’s got Hoyer and a former league MVP boxing him out of the starting gig. Stidham took a road trip to Texas with the wife and got Wally Pipped before he even got off the Pike. Stidham checking his ESPN notifications and seeing the Newton signing:

By the way, this also goes to show you to never, ever, ever discount what the wise guys are saying in Vegas. Oddsmakers had the Patriots as the favorites to sign Newton months ago and we all thought what the hell are they talking about? Whoops.

Julian Edelman seems to already be on board with the former MVP coming to Gillette though.

Using the infamous and ridiculous Cam Newton font in his post legitimately made me laugh out loud.

Although Tom Brady was immediately in Edelman’s comments like an ex-girlfriend trying to honey dick him.

You left Jules, Tom! Let him be happy with someone else.

I’ve been a big fan of Ham Newton’s game ever since his days at Auburn when he crushed my dreams as a Boston based Oregon stan in the National Championship. So I’m pretty excited to see what one of the most dynamic QBs in the game can do with the best coach in the history of the league.

KEY STATS

People point to Newton’s career 59% completion percentage as a reason why he won’t fit here, but I fully expect the Pats to run the snot out of the ball this year. They were already trending that way the last couple of seasons, drafting Sony Michel in the first round, and this past offseason using the franchise tag to bring back Left Tackle Joe Thuney. Now factor in that Newton’s completion % is nearly 10% higher on play action than it is on non-play action plays. His completion percentage on play action is 68%, which will pick teams apart if the Pats can develop a decent running game in 2020.

If the Pats do want to jam Newton into the Tom Brady quick, short pass offense? His accuracy is not as good as Brady’s (Brady is 63% career), but their time holding onto the ball and average yards per throw is surprisingly close. In 2018 (Newton’s last *almost* full season with 14 games) Cam averaged 2.69 Time to Throw compared to Brady’s 2.62 seconds and 5 Completed Air Yards compared to Brady’s 5.6. He also had a Passer Rating of 94.2 compared to Brady’s 97.7 with a Completion Percentage of 67.9 compared to Brady’s 65.8.

Tom Brady is the GOAT and my favorite athlete of all time, but Cam Newton is not a bad replacement if healthy. Newton also only threw two more picks than Brady despite having an Aggressiveness % of 17.2 to Brady’s 13.9. And if that stat is entirely new to you as it is one I found that fits my agenda, have no fear: “Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts.”

INJURY HISTORY

As with any player, especially at QB, a recent injury history like Newton’s is alarming. Pats Pulpit does a great job of breaking it down extensively, but here are the spark notes.

  • January 2019 – Shoulder surgery on his throwing arm
  • December 2019 – Foot surgery for a Lisfranc fracture
  • 2014 – Ankle Surgery

It’s not an overly lengthy injury history, but it is a very recent one. Shoulder and foot injuries for a 31-year-old mobile QB are not ideal. Thats why he was available though and the last thing you want to do is repeat the Dolphin’s fatal mistake when they passed on Drew Brees in 2006 because of his shoulder injury. They went with Daunte Culpepper instead and have sucked for the past 14 years, meanwhile the Saints took a chance and won a Super Bowl as Brees flourished into a Hall of Famer.

FIT WITH PATS

As I mentioned earlier, this Patriots team already seemed poised to run the hell out of the ball so bringing in Cam Newton makes sense as they could utilize any of their half dozen runningbacks (is Damien Harris still alive and well?) and run the old Full House package from Madden ad nauseum. I don’t expect the Patriots to morph into an RPO team overnight like the Ravens did with Lamar Jackson, but I do expect a ton of Shotgun and spreading the defense out so Newton can utilize his strengths.

I honestly think James White might catch 100 balls this year (career high 87 in 2018). Newton looves throwing to his runningbacks. Sure he’s had the best RB in the game in Christian McCaffrey, but Newton threw to his RB1 more and more each year. From 2016-2019 McCaffrey had 80, 107, and 116 receptions on 113, 124, and a whopping 142 targets last year. Somewhat surprisingly that was *only* 8th in the NFL in total targets, but it also was 34 (!) more than any other RB in the game.

Obviously the Patriots have not had a mobile quarterback really ever, even before Brady, but when you see the actual numbers compared to Newton it is jarring.

Mobile quarterbacks have only very recently started to find success in the NFL so it clearly never hurt the Patriots before, but adding this element to their offense will be a welcome bonus to having Newton under center.

Mike Reiss said on ESPN the other day he believes the Pats will keep their offense 75% the same with about 25% changed to suit Newton.

Lets not forget that Josh McDaniels did in fact draft Tim Tebow in the first round back in 2010 while he was the HC in Denver. The Pats also had some fun with their most mobile quarterback since Doug Flutie when Jacoby Brissett was forced into emergency starting duties against the Texans in 2016. The Pats ran some RPO and Brissett ran the ball 10 times that game, including this 30 yard TD on a designed QB run.

And Brissett’s not even a mobile quarterback! He just looked that way compared to the Clydesdale that is TB12. Cam Newton ran a 4.59 40 yard dash at the combine compared to Brissett’s 4.94. Granted Newton has since had foot surgery, but my point is the Pats had a great game plan for a guy that runs a slower 40 time than me. Imagine what kind of damage they can do with a guy like Newton?

EXPECTATIONS

I’ve said in the past that watching Newton last year he looked cooked, but coming off a shoulder surgery less than a year prior and then injuring his foot really decimated any chance he had of stepping into throws. Not to mention his ability to scramble, so its no surprise he looked terrible. But Cam was great as recently as 2018 even though his season was cut short after 14 games with the shoulder injury. In 2018 Newton threw for 3,400 yards, 24 TDs, 13 INTs, 67.9% completion percentage, 94.2 Rating, with 488 yards rushing and 4 TDs. A far cry from his MVP year, but this is also with him throwing to his runningback, DJ Moore, Devin Funchess, Jarius Wright, Curtis Samuel, something called Ian Thomas, and a 33-year-old Greg Olsen. Not a ton of household names in there outside of McCaffrey.

CBS Sports’ Will Brinson was on Toucher and Rich this week calling Cam the greatest QB in league history and is *very* high on the fit.

“I think if Cam is healthy, Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick will unleash a really lethal offense…Rob Gronkowski is the second greatest red zone threat in league history and Cam Newton is No. 1 because he can run the ball.”

Although would it surprise me if Belichick just up and decides it’s not working and cuts Newton in training camp? With an incentive laden one-year contract, it would not shock me. I’d hate to see that happen though because this is the most excited I’ve been to watch the Patriots since Brady left for Tampa.

The fit remains to be seen, but I think Newton is DYING to prove he is still an elite QB in a league that is now littered with mobile QBs. Newton was the prototype so it must really piss him off to see half a dozen QBs winning with his blueprint. He wants to prove he is still the alpha and if he is fully healthy, motivation will not be a problem so I am excited to see what Belichick and McDaniels do with him.

JERSEY TIME?

I have to admit, I was pretty meh on the new Pats jerseys when they came out, but I think part of that was probably with Brady leaving town there wasn’t really any other players that made me want to buy a $100 jersey. I already have an Edelman jersey, Devin McCourty flirts with retirement more and more these days, Dont’a Hightower is also on the wrong side of 30. I love Chase Winovich, but I need to see him on the field more before I even think about elevating him to jersey status. N’Keal Harry needs to catch about a dozen touchdowns this year to get into this conversation. So who does that leave? Maybe Stephon Gilmore? I guess if I had to pull the trigger it would be either White (a Super Bowl hero) or Patrick Chung (a longtime Patriot who does anything and everything). BUT, I gotta say, this looks pretty sexy.

I have a rule that I don’t buy jerseys of players unless they have recently signed a contract extension so as to not end up with another Sergei Samsonov jersey that immediately became a throwback about a week after I bought it. But if Ham Newton has 10 touchdowns in September, it’s going to be pretty hard to keep my credit card in my pocket. Even if he is only on a one-year contract.

Would still be a better jersey to won than the two *different* guys I’ve seen wearing John Lynch Patriots jerseys in Allston over the years (Lynch retired before the start of the 2008 season).

Or maybe the injuries have finally caught up to a guy who has absolutely abused his body for the past decade and Newton really is cooked. Well its a win-win situation for the Pats. They get a 31-year-old, hyper motivated former MVP QB, who will not be fazed in the slightest about replacing a legend and ultimately dominates with a fresh start OR we get A+ fashion shows every week that will provide weeks worth of content.

Like I said, win-win.

(Retired) Rob Gronkowski Traded to Tampa Bay to Reunite With Tom Brady

By on • ( Leave a comment )

Somebody needs to do a wellness check on Julian Edelman and take away his shoelaces. But seriously, you have got to be shitting me Gronk. I’m seriously going to have to watch two of my favorite athletes of all time play together for another team this season? Holy shit did the devil collect quickly on the deal for my soul after Super Bowl No. 6.

This all came out of thin air after RapSheet tweeted Gronk was interested in coming back and was a done deal in a matter of about 30 minutes, which made it all the more jarring.

I didn’t even have time to craft a witty tweet before the next breaking news siren sounded. Now we’re just reacting to the cold hard news that is in fact a done deal.

If we’re being honest I was hoping for more than a 4th for Gronk and a 7th, but I guess objectively speaking it makes sense as he has just one year left on his deal and hasn’t played football in more than a year. When Marshawn Lynch decided he wanted to come out of retirement to play for the Raiders, the Seahawks were only able to swap a 6th for a 5th and thats probably the closest comparison.

But in the span of 32 days to lose the greatest quarterback of all time for nothing and now arguably the greatest tight end of all time for a 4th stings a bit.

Karen Guregian also reported that this wasn’t just a sudden urge from Gronk to play football again.

I can’t say that surprises me all that much since Gronk confirmed rumors of a nixed trade to the Lions before the 2018 season, saying he’d retired before playing for another QB.

After a year doing TV, selling CBD, hosting music festivals, and winning WWE belts Gronk will be back catching balls in 2020 from none other than Tompa Brady. His off the field stuff was hit or miss, but let us never forget his Hall of Fame meathead moment on New Years Eve.

Well if sports ever do come back I’ll be drunk and crying in the stands watching Tom Brady throw TDs to Rob Gronkowski in motherfucking Tampa Bay.

Lets Grieve Tom Brady’s Departure Together

By on • ( 1 Comment )

Tom Brady Sr. always said it was going to end badly in New England and that’s exactly what happened. It wasn’t a Drew Bledsoe-esque ending where he got hurt, benched, and traded, but it was an awkward, tense, anticlimactic close to Tom Brady’s Patriots career.

It was a less than stellar final season in NE where Brady just didn’t have the weapons, the defense slowly fell apart, leading to an upset loss on Wild Card weekend to Ryan Tannehill and the Titans, with a pick-six being Brady’s final play. Now with Brady announcing his decision to move on from New England we’re left to grieve the greatest quarterback to ever play the game.

It’s yet to be announced where Brady will sign, but guys like Colin Cowherd are starting to report that he’s headed to Tampa Bay. Imagine TB12 in 70 degree weather throwing to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, OJ Howard (and maybe Antonio Brown)? Good god. Tampa Bay also has the 16th hardest schedule in the NFL this year, compared to the No. 1 most difficult schedule facing New England.

We all knew this day was coming, but it still sucks to see the end of an era. I don’t fault Brady, especially if he did get a massive payday somewhere else and the Pats offered him peanuts. Can’t blame the guy for wanting to make market value after taking discounts his entire career. Especially if the Patriots and Belichick wanted him to sing for his supper just to lowball him again.

What a start to 2020 huh? A homegrown MVP in Mookie Betts gets traded, literally every sports league in America shuts down, the entire country is isolating themselves due to the Coronavirus pandemic, and now TB12 is gone.

This is going to be weird. Since 2001 the only QB to play anything more than garbage time was Matt Cassel after Brady got hurt in 2008. So who the hell is going to play QB for the Pats next season? I broke down all the potential QB options a couple weeks ago, but I still keep hearing *Andy Dalton’s* name for some reason.

Marcus Mariota and Ryan Tannehill are both off the market. Teddy Bridgewater apparently is going to get $30M a year so I’ll pass on that. Philip Rivers is also an old so I don’t see the Pats going that way. I can’t imagine Belichick wanting to sign a guy in Jameis Winston who just threw 30 goddamn INTs. Maybe the Pats do swing a trade for Matt Stafford if the Lions draft a QB?

Or if we’re being honest with ourselves, it’s starting to look like the dawn of the Jarret Stidham era, folks.

Something that I have not been eager to explore about myself is how Tom Brady leaving will affect me as a sports fan. Brady has been under center in Foxborough since I was 12-years-old. As a 30-year-old that is aging in dog years, Brady was one of the few remaining Boston sports icon that is older than me. I’m a full blown Jersey Guy, but I do feel a little odd dishing out $100 bucks for a jersey of a guy that literally just became old enough to buy a beer. With Brady’s departure the best player in Boston is probably 21-year-old Jayson Tatum or maybe 34-year-old Patrice Bergeron or 31-year-old Brad Marchand. But with all due respect, none of those players really compare to Tom Brady.

After Mookie Betts got traded I talked with Big Z about how it didn’t really bother me all that much. Probably because we’re jaded and it’s hard to care as much as you did when you were 15. Tom Brady was the exception to that.

Now as we look to rebuild, to all my friends that are fans of the Jets, Bills, Dolphins, Giants, Colts, Steelers, Chiefs and any other fanbase crawling out of their dumpsters?

Tom Brady is Leaving the Patriots

By on • ( 1 Comment )

I can’t believe the day has finally come. Tom Brady is leaving the New England Patriots. Despite days, months, and even years of preparing for this it still doesn’t feel real. I feel like Cameron in Ferris Bueller’s day off right now; catatonic.

This one hurts. It kind of feels like the Patriots dared Brady to leave and he did just that. As we saw all the potential weapons and upgrades around the league come off the market things started to look worse and worse. Austin Hooper, Deandre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs, Jimmy Graham. Meanwhile the Pats were erasing their cap space with extensions for Devin McCourty and the franchise tag on Joe Thuney so it looks like the team had no intention of bringing Brady back.

We’ll find out soon, but as of right now we don’t know where Brady is going. We can fully expect that he got PAID by LA or maybe Tampa Bay. The numbers will really decide the reaction of Patriots fans towards Belichick and Kraft because if it’s $30 million a year for 3 years then I think people will understand. If it’s even a moderately reasonable deal and the Pats lowballed him yet again then Belichick and Kraft will get roasted for years to come.

The LA Chargers make the most sense in my opinion as Brady wants to grow his brand, he pals around with Hollywood elite already, his wife would love the glitz and glamor, oh and don’t forget the production company he started last week.

Tampa probably backed up the Brinks truck and that team has a *nice* set of offensive weapons, but I just find it hard to believe Brady and Giselle are going to move to the strip club capital of the world.

We’ll have more blogs today as we grieve, but for right now I’m still in a state of shock.

With Ryan Fitzpatrick Joining His Third AFC East Team, I Have Found the Perfect Group Halloween Costume

By on • ( Leave a comment )

I remember seeing this idea a few years back when Jaromir Jagr was playing for the Bruins en route to finishing his NHL career having played for 9 teams over 24 years.

Well I would say we’ve officially reached that point with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Everyone’s favorite gigantic bearded, wedding ring wearing, smart as hell, bridge quarterback will join his 8th NFL team in Miami this season. It also will mark him playing for 3/4ths of the AFC East. So who knows, maybe if he kicks around for a couple of more years he could complete the rounds and be a veteran backup QB to the next great Patriots signal caller? We can only hope.

So if 7 of my other friends want to create the greatest Halloween costume of the season, the Ryan Fitzpatrick group costume is the way to go boys.

Despite All the Dirt Thrown On Him, Josh McDaniels Still Drawing Interest from Multiple Teams as Head Coach

By on • ( Leave a comment )

CBS Sports – Less than one year after spurning the Colts, it doesn’t appear that Josh McDaniels is going to have any issues finding a head coaching job this offseason if he wants one.

The Patriots offensive coordinator is expected to land multiple interviews over the next few weeks and it looks like one of those will be going down in Green Bay. According to NFL.com, the Packers are expected to hold an interview with McDaniels on Friday. Since the Patriots have a bye this week, McDaniels is allowed to interview for open jobs this weekend. The Packers moved quickly to land an interview with McDaniels with the team sending in a formal request to interview him just one day after the NFL regular season ended.

Despite all the dirt thrown on his name after backing out of the Colts job, Josh McDaniels is still very much in on several head coaching job openings this offseason.

And I love it.

This may be the height of my “Patriots against the world” complex, but hey thats what happens when everyone calls you a cheater and openly roots for your demise for over a decade. Thats also what makes winning so much sweeter though. So yes, rooting for Josh McDaniels to get a head coaching job primarily out of spite against anyone that talked ill of a Patriots employee is petty, bizarre even; I fully admit that. Doesn’t change the facts though.

“Besides the Packers, the Browns and Bengals have also requested to interview McDaniels. CBS Sports NFL Insider Jason La Canfora reported on Dec. 30 that the Browns owner Jimmy Haslam is “very high” on McDaniels, which could make Cleveland a wild-card in the sweepstakes for the Patriots offensive coordinator.”

This comes less than a year after talking heads around the interwebs all but buried the guy under Gillette Stadium. The simple fact of the matter though is who would you rather have? There are a TON of head coaching vacancies this offseason and not nearly enough competent names to fill them. Eight to be exact. Yup, the Browns, Packers, Jets, Broncos, Dolphins, Bucs, Bengals, and Cardinals are all in the market for a new head coach.

Now as always, this comes with the disclaimer that Josh McDaniels has worked under potentially the greatest head coach of all time along with the greatest quarterback of all time for years. Lets be honest, I could be Tom Brady’s offensive coordinator and the Pats would probably still win the division. So aside from a brief stint with the Broncos (11-17), it’s hard to really peg McDaniels’ true value.

But thats also what makes him such an intriguing candidate.

If I’m the owner of an NFL franchise do I want someone from the Belichick Coaching Tree (more on this in a moment) that is young, innovative, and has worked with the best in the business for the past 10+ years? Or do I want to hire a guy thats already been a head coach for a long time and has already proven multiple times that he’s not a difference maker? Would you rather hire Josh McDaniels or Jeff Fisher?

Granted the Belichick Coaching Tree hasn’t exactly flourished when Bill’s assistants have gone on to set up their own programs, but this is a quarterback driven league. A lot of these coaches simply haven’t had “the guy.”

Romeo Crennel (28-55) had Trent Dilfer, Charlie Frye, Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn, Matt Cassel, and Brady Quinn again at quarterback over the years before being axed for the final time. Eric Mangini (33-47) had Chad Pennington, 39-year-old Brett Favre, Brady Quinn (again!), and Colt McCoy at QB before he got axed for the final time. Charlie Weis (41-49) went over to the NCAA, which is an entirely different animal and failed at multiple schools. More recently we’ve seen Bill O’Brien (42-38) have moderate success in Houston, relatively speaking. Sure, he was rumored to be on the hot seat this year, but they’ve made the playoffs 3 out of the last 4 years. Before Deshaun Watson, O’Brien had Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, Brock Osweiller (which was his own fault), and Tom Savage. So now that he has an actual QB in Watson you see what that team is capable of. Not a lot of Pro Bowl quarterbacks in there guys. Then theres Matt Patricia (6-10), who’s first season in Detroit can be described as nothing but disastrous.

So 1 out of 5 ain’t good, but hey I’d rather take a chance on a young guy with a great pedigree than hire a guy that I KNOW will have my team going 8-8 every year.

Here are some of the other candidates with previous head coaching experience just to name a few.

  • Mike McCarthy (125-77-2, 10-8 in the playoffs)
  • Adam Gase (23-25, 0-1 in the playoffs)
  • Todd Bowles (26-41)
  • Bruce Arians (49-30, 1-2 in the playoffs)
  • Vance Joseph (11-21)
  • Jim Caldwell (62-50, 2-4 in the playoffs)

Do ANY of those candidates excite you if you’re a fan of one of those teams that has an opening at HC? Maybe Bruce Arians, but he retired after the 2017 season and would be the 3rd oldest coach in the NFL, were he to come back, behind only Belichick and Pete Carroll. I’m looking for someone at least *a little* bit different if I’m an owner. Hell I’d take a shot on Lincoln Riley (Riley legit just signed an extension with Oklahoma yesterday) or Kliff Kingsbury over any of those guys. Am I biased because I’m 29 and I want to see more young blood in the league? Yea, probably. But these teams that are mired in mediocrity year after year, make the same dumb decisions every season and wonder why they never go anywhere. Hell it took the Bengals 16 years to get out of their own way before finally firing Marvin Lewis and his 0-7 playoff record. (Although they might step right back into their own way and hire Hue Jackson)

So yea McDaniels is kind of a dick for leaving the Colts at the altar last offseason (and hosing a few assistants in the process). I can understand why you wouldn’t want to grab a beer with the guy. But this is the NFL where the only thing that matters are results and Josh McDaniels has 5 Super Bowl rings working with the Patriots in various roles. And before you say it’s all because of the head coach and the QB, whether thats true or not, the Offensive Coordinator of the Kansas City Chiefs, Eric Bieniemy is rumored to be a hot head coaching candidate despite this being his FIRST year as an OC. Why? Because of what the head coach and the QB have been able to do this season. This comes less than a year after Bieniemy’s predecessor Matt Nagy was hired by the Chicago Bears as their new head coach who also had just one year as an OC on his resume. So you can’t have it both ways folks — the OC matters or he doesn’t.

TLDR; I think Josh McDaniels is as good as gone this offseason and I’d take McDaniels over a ton of other guys in this league as a head coach. Now, Bill Belichick isn’t one of them though so if it’s between him and McDaniels? Best of luck, Josh!

Lets Gamble! NFL Week 5

By on • ( Leave a comment )

Overall Record (14-16)
Last week (9-6)

Another week, another one of the worst beats I’ve ever seen in a football game with the ending of that Kansas City game. Just ruthless. As always, all of our betting lines are courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook so blame them if the numbers change. Its that time once again to start playing fast and loose with our paychecks. Its Week 5 in the NFL, LETS GO


New England Patriots (-5.5, 55.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I picked the Pats to cover and cover they did.

Sunday, Oct. 8
1 p.m. ET

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-1.5, 39)
There’s no way you’re going to actually put money on the Browns as a favorite are you? I sure as shit am not going to. I’ll take the Jets here.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-3, 44)
Coming off their walkoff win over the Patriots, the Panthers have some momentum heading into Detroit. But the Lions are looking legit this year sitting at 3-1 in first place in the NFC North. It seems the Panthers are slowly figuring out the best way to use Christian McCaffrey with Jonathan Stewart together though so I’m taking the Panthers to cover here.

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 43.5)


Tennessee Titans (NL) at Miami Dolphins
No Line for this game, so nothing to see here.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 38)
Call me crazy, I’m taking the Bills here. I like Tyrod Taylor to have a big game against the struggling Bengals.

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants (-3.5, 44.5)
A battle of two 0-4 teams. Woof. I’ve been picking the Chargers all year and they keep disappointing so its hard to rely on them here. Giants are in the same boat, but with a fully healthy Odell Beckham I think they finally get on the board here. I’ll take the G-Men to cover.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5, 44)
Steelers are pretty big favorites at (-8.5) so thats asking a lot, but it is the Jaguars. I can definitely see Pittsburgh winning by 10. Fournette’s been solid in his first year rushing for 285 yards and 3 TDs, but Big Ben is rolling with Antonio Brown whos got 30 catches for 388 yards and a score. So I’m taking the Steelers to cover the big spread.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 45)
Eagles look like they’ve found their QB of the future with Carson Wentz and while I’m still bummed about Short Guy Hall of Famer Darren Sproles going down, Philly is still rolling along. Not a huge fan of old man Carson Palmer, especially with the non-existant run gam post David Johnson, so I’m taking the Eagles to cover.

4 p.m. ET
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 47)
You gotta be shitting me? I know the Rams are off to a 3-1 start, but I refuse to take them as favorites over the Seahawks on a (-2.5) spread. Put some respeck on Seattle’s name. I’m taking Dangeruss and the Seahawks here.


Baltimore Ravens (NL) at Oakland Raiders
Seems to be a lot of No Lines this season, soo nothing to bet on here.

 

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-2, 52.5)
Its hard to bet against the Packers, who are 3-1 on the season going against the 2-2 Cowboys. The Pack just continue to plug and play guys like Aaron Jones and not miss a beat, but I like Dallas here. Feed Zeke all night long and win by a FG, I’ll take the Boys.


Kansas City Chiefs (NL) at Houston Texans
Another game with No Line. Moving on.

Monday, Oct. 9
8:30 p.m. ET


Minnesota Vikings (NL) at Chicago Bears
No reason to watch MNF if theres No Line. Carry on.

The Patriots Win! The Buccaneers Cover! We All Go Home Happy!

By on • ( Leave a comment )

Are people listening to me yet? Are you making money yet? In tonight’s Patriots Pick Em I was not exactly overflowing with confidence about our boys. With the Pats being a (-5.5) favorite coming off a walkoff loss to the Panthers and still having the Patriots defense I felt that was a little rich and had the Bucs covering.

“Even with Brady having one of the best starts of his entire career, the guy can’t play defense. So while I’m not saying the Pats are necessarily gonna lose, I don’t see them winning by a touchdown or more. I think if anything they squeak by with a FG or less so I’m picking the Bucs to cover.”

What happened? The Bucs hang around and score a late TD with just over 2 minutes left to bring that Pats lead down to 5. Very, very close to blowing everything to hell, but as John Sterling would say THEEEE BUCCANEEERSSSS COVERRR!!!

Patriots Pick Em Week 5

By on • ( 2 Comments )

I’m writing this after the Red Sox just finished getting bent over by the Astros so I’m a little bit jaded right now. So tonight on the American tradition that is Thursday Night Football Color Rush, the Patriots are a (-5.5) point favorite over the Buccaneers….and I don’t feel great about that line. (As always, all of our betting lines are courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook so blame them if the numbers change.) The Pats defense has obviously looked like shit. Well, no actually they’ve looked like a defense on pace to be the worst defense in NFL HISTORY. Alan Branch got left at home and now Gronk is out. That is not a great equation especially on a short week. Even with Brady having one of the best starts of his entire career, the guy can’t play defense. So while I’m not saying the Pats are necessarily gonna lose, I don’t see them winning by a touchdown or more. I think if anything they squeak by with a FG or less so I’m picking the Bucs to cover.

PS – I saw Rich Keefe tweet earlier today the payoff of an anti-Boston parlay today and I’m kinda wishing I took that right about now.

Lets Gamble! NFL Week 4

By on • ( Leave a comment )

Week 3 was a rollercoaster with a lot of upsets that I did not see coming (I’m looking at you Denver), but Week 4 is a new day. As always, all of our betting lines are courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook so blame them if the numbers change. Its that time once again to start playing fast and loose with our paychecks. Its Week 4 in the NFL, LETS GO.

Overall Record (14-16)
Last week (6-9)

Thursday, Sept. 28
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7, 45.5)
The Bears just keep making me look bad, but I refuse to put my hard earned dollars on Mike Glennon. And I need to see back to back solid games out of Jordan Howard before I trust him. Usually the tired rhetoric about Thursday Night Football is its sloppy, the passing is out of sync and teams lean on their running game. Welp, the Rams and Niners blew that one up last week. So I’m taking the Packers to cover here.

Sunday, Oct. 1
9:30 a.m. ET (at London)
New Orleans Saints (-3, 49.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
I gotta go Saints here. I know they’ve been up and down, but I don’t know if Smokin Jay Cutler and the Dolphins have enough offensive firepower to keep up with the saints. Saints will cover.

1 p.m. ET
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-9, 48.5)
Another big spread for the Pats at (-9) which is a tricky one because the Panthers have been pretty shaky so far this year, but similar to last week against Deshaun Watson, the Pats have historically struggled against mobile QBs. I think its gonna be a game the Pats pull away, but Panthers make it respectable. I got Patriots by 10 to cover.

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5, 46)
Rams looked great last week putting up 41 points buttt that was on San Francisco. Cowboys gotta win by more than a TD here, whereas the Rams haven’t lost by more than 7 yet this season and have put up 40+ points twice already. But again the competition has been pretty mediocre (Indy, Washington, San Fran) so I’m picking the Cowboys to keep rolling and cover.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (no line)
Does Westgate have something against the Vikings? There’s no line for them for the second week in a row.

Tennessee Titans (-1.5, 44) at Houston Texans
Texans could go one of two ways in this game. Defeated and beat down after dropping a game they probably should have won to the Patriots last week or they’ll come firing out of the gates for sticking with the best team in football for 58 minutes last week. I think Deshaun Watson found his groove last week so I’m taking the Texans to cover here.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5, 39.5) at New York Jets
Bet on this game at your own risk. Jags cruised to victory last week, but they’re more of a running team these days and the Jets have a solid D-line if nothing else. Jets surprised me last week with a W over the Dolphins, but I think Fournette and the gang are too much for the Jets here. Jags cover.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 40) at Cleveland Browns
Another game I cringe to even put money on, but hey thats what leaders do, they take the ball and they bring their team down the field. Bengals shit the bed last week, but Cleveland cannot be trusted. Bengals cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 43.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Ravens had an absolutely embarrassing game last week so they should bounce back. Problem is though, so did the Steelers. After losing in OT to the goddamn Bears, I expect Big Ben and co. to smash the Ravens. Steelers cover.

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (-8, 48.5)
Bills are sneaky tied for 1st place in the AFC East and look a lot better than most people thought they would before the season. I think the Bills keep it within a score and cover.

4 p.m. ET
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 44)
This year’s Hard Knocks darlings have yet to beat anyone great yet as their first game got postponed, then they beat the Bears, and then got smoked by the Vikings last week. ODB looks healthy once again, but the Giants are 0-3 and could be reeling so I’m going with the Bucs to cover.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (-1, 47)
Despite being 0-3, the Chargers have had some bad breaks and could easily be 2-1 so I think they’re due, plus it likely will take the Eagles a little while to figure out how to best replace Darren Sproles with Smallwood and others. Chargers are due, I’m picking them to cover.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-7, 44.5)
The Niners got blown out in their opener, but then nearly beat Seattle in Week 2, which looking back now seems to have more to do with the Seahawks offensive line than anything. Then they kept it close before losing to the Rams last week. Arizona looks to rebound after an L in Dallas in which Larry Fitzgerald looked 10 years younger. Their running game is still a disaster without David Johnson, but wth Fitz and Jaron Brown stepping up in the receiving core I’m picking the Cardinals to cover.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 46.5)
This is a heavyweight matchup of AFC playoff teams and the Broncos are favored by a FG. Both teams had disappointing losses last week so everyone’s looking to get back on track. Oakland has been leaning on Marshawn Lynch here early and Denver is one of the worst teams to try and run on so I’m going with the Broncos to cover here.

8:30 p.m. ET
Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13, 41.5)
God the Colts suck, but a two TD spread is huge for a team thats been struggling offensively. As much as I want to pick the Colts, Russell Wilson looked great last week and if the Seahawks can get him out of the pocket he’ll shred the Colts D. So while I usually hate picking the favorite in huge spreads like this, Dangeruss is looking good, and the Seahawks are at home where they are loud as shit. I’ll take Seattle to cover.

Monday, Oct. 2
Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 49.5)
I’m going to continue to roll with the Chiefs who have looked awesome so far this year. Kareem Hunt is scary good and the R-words have yet to really find a groove as guys like Terrell Pryor continue to underwhelm. I got the Chiefs covering here.