This really has just been a disaster of a season. The Patriots just got dunked on by the Buffalo Bills after going 29-3 against them between 2001-2019 with Tom Brady under center. It was a blowout, it was a changing of the guard, but to say it was embarrassing would imply that the end result was surprising. It was not. In the infamous words of Trent Dilfer, the Patriots aren’t good anymore. It’s the first time the Patriots have been swept in a season by a divisional opponent in 20 years, they are dead last in the NFL in passing TDs with 8 (one of which came from WR Jakobi Meyers), and the team is uncharacteristically undisciplined, which was only exacerbated by that head scratching challenge flag Belichick threw on what was clearly a catch directlyin front of him and his son.
Someone clearly told Bill to throw the red flag though so Ernie must be going blind up in that fucking lighthouse.
There is a lot of grave dancing, which is to be expected after the run the Patriots just went on over the last 20 years. But for people to already be comparing the Patriots to the Jets is hyperbole of the highest order. Lets just let this marinate for a little more than 15 weeks before locking the Pats in the NFL basement with the likes of the Jets. I fully expect Bill is going to Execute Order 66 this offseason and just start taking people out left and right because you can tell this season has stung, which can only be worsened seeing Tom Brady’s march to the playoffs down in Tampa. The Pats will have some of, if not the most, cap room in the league this offseason and a Top 15 draft pick so there are some assets there to work with. Whether that means trading up to snag a top tier QB, trading down and rebuilding with even more picks, or hoping another QB shakes loose in free agency, there are plenty of routes back to respectability. I will settle for respectability and then we can discuss returning to championship contender status at a later date.
The best the Patriots can hope for right now is a 2012 Seahawks scenario where they overpay for a backup QB free agent and then hit on a QB with a pick later in the draft. Best case scenario is the Pats sign Marcus Mariota, then draft a QB in the 3rd Round, and Mariota never takes a snap for the team. Similar to how the Seahawks and Pete Carroll gave career backup Matt Flynn a monster 3-year deal before realizing a few weeks later that they had hit the jackpot with Russell Wilson. But stumbling onto another Hall of Fame QB with a late round draft pick isn’t exactlyy probable so I can’t say I am expecting that.
What about former Washington QB Dwayne Haskins? The fastest a 1st Round QB has been outright cut by a team in the last 20 years. Nope. Moving on.
The Patriots unfortunately do not have a lot of elite talent and just about all of their best players are on the wrong side of 30. All of their best offensive players under 30 are linemen and runningbacks, which is why the running game is the only thing thats looked impressive at times. Tight ends we’ll get to in a minute, but the receiving corps is nothing I would bet money on. N’Keal Harry is looking like a gigantic bust and Damiere Byrd and Jakobi Meyers are nice 3rd or 4th receivers, but they are not true No. 1 guys. Things aren’t much better on the defensive side of the ball with their best players under 30 including guys like JC Jackson (who got robbed of a Pro Bowl this year), Chase Winovich, Deatrich Wise, and the book is still out but early signs have looked good on Josh Uche and Kyle Dugger. You can debate anyone I may have left out, but there’s not a lot of young elite talent on the roster except for Jackson (who sneaky got torched last night).
Cam Newton is a great dude, a seemingly beloved teammate, and he has been a model Patriot, but unfortunately he just looks cooked. I don’t know if it’s his shoulder or what, but he just cannot deliver the ball. It’s not all his fault though as the weapons around him have been more like Dollar Store Super Soakers. Even when he does deliver a good pass, he has bum receivers dropping balls like Byrd letting a would be TD bounce off his face mask.
Or rookie (3rd Round pick) TE Devin Asiasi dropping a key first down and adding to his grand total of Zero receptions on the season. Fellow 3rd Round TE Dalton Keene has a measly Two receptions on the year too so Tight End, a historically important position for young/new/mobile QBs, has been BARREN in New England.
Newton can still takeoff for an electric TD run though, which he did Monday night for his 12th of the year. However even that came after what realistically should have been another sack as Newton’s pocket presence and awareness has seemed non-existent this season. But even with the 2nd Most Rushing TDs by a QB in a season (trailing only himself in 2011 with 14), passing for just 5 touchdowns over 14 games simply isn’t going to cut it. I wish it had worked out better, I was really excited to see Cam as a Patriot, but it just hasn’t materialized. It’s not for a lack of effort or attitude, which has been admirable, but even the ever positive Newton sounded dejected after last night’s effort (5/10 for 34 yards, 47.6 QBR).
On Monday he looked exhausted and sounded frustrated. He has been away from his children for months, and not even an admirable work ethic and a team-first attitude has produced much.
“It’s extremely frustrating knowing what you’re capable of but it’s just not showing when it counts the most,” Newton said. “… I’ve sacrificed so much this year and it hurts when you have the outing that you had tonight …
“I’m more or less venting,” he acknowledged.
Jarrett Stidham: Alright down 20+ points, time for me to get in there and start slinging it!
To be fair, Jarrett Stidham, who it looked like might not even see the field, was also terrible, completing 4 of 11 passes for 44 yards with a QBR of 3.7. Again, this team is devoid of elite talent at Wide Receiver (Julian Edelman is still out with a knee injury) and Tight End so it’s hard to evaluate anybody under center, but lets just say Stidham does not appear to be like a young Aaron Rodgers with his path to playing time merely blocked by a former MVP veteran QB.
To make matters even worse, the commentators were borderline depressing too. They will usually try to carry a game broadcast during a blowout, but they were talking about Newton and the Patriots like a “too old to be in the ring” heavyweight boxer that they were legitimately concerned for. And this was with 10 minutes left to go in the 4th quarter. Quite a lot of time to fill as the broadcasters pondered the precarious future of the Patriots.
So we’ll see what the Patriots do and whether they attack the offseason like they did after 2006 when they spent big in free agency and made splashy trades for studs like Randy Moss and Wes Welker, but even then that team had elite building blocks already in place.
All we know is this: Bill has the cap space, an unusually high draft pick, and all the motivation in the world to turn this thing around. Now let’s just hope this is a rebuild and not a tear down.
Yesterday the Patriots fell into a 10-0 hole almost immediately after the ball was kicked. Or at least it felt like it. The defense was getting the ball ran down its throat and making Rams’ ball catchers like Tyler Higbee look immortal in the passing game. The offense had had a possession or two and we watched Josh McDaniels again INEXPLICABLY abandon his power running offense to try and revert back to a passing first attack. It was 10-0 and it was already feeling hopeless.
And then Cam Newton threw the softest pick six you might ever see.
To a few different text threads I had the same reaction. I just laughed. Because of course that’s what happened. Our QB1 who just hasn’t been able to figure it the fuck out all year wasn’t able to collect himself when the entire 53 man roster was on its heels and put some points on the board. He couldn’t, even for a moment, look like the Cam of old. National champion, Heisman Trophy winner. First overall pick. Former league MVP. A guy who once threw for over 4,000 yards. And he couldn’t put together an even half decent drive when we really needed it.
But that might not be the worst part. The worst part is I still go into every week wondering if the old Cam, the real Cam, the one teams really didn’t want to play on Sundays, would reappear. The worst part is he, at least outwardly, still has the confidence. Not quite boastful swagger, but the confidence of a QB who just knows he is either gonna sling it or run around you or blast through you but one way or another you’re in for a long day. The worst part is I don’t want to give up on that guy.
Circumstance plays a part in all this optimism, in this hope. I know that. It’s not like we have an exciting option on the bench behind Cam Newton. When he caught the ‘rona earlier this year we started Brian Hoyer. Now sitting at #2 on the depth chart is Jarrett Stidham, which is to say, the Year 2 of Brian Hoyer. So we sort of, whether subconsciously or not, have known all along we NEED Cam to become that guy again. We need him to be the most dynamic QB in the league, maybe ever. There really isn’t another option.
But really the highest contributing part of this is Cam is just so easy to root for. He’s always smiling, he’s always having fun. He’s said to be an immensely hard worker and a football junkie. He ALWAYS owns up for his own play when it, often as of late, isn’t so great. He’s quick to talk up his teammates both to the media and on the sidelines. The entire coaching staff loves him and has called him the leader of this team almost since the minute he was signed. And all of this after overcoming years of debilitating injuries that sought to derail a once singularly promising career. He is literally everything you want in your starting QB, except that little part about getting it done on the field.
To defend Cam as much as possible, he doesn’t exactly have the Roman army-equivalent surrounding him. The patchwork offensive line has held up fairly well this season but when it starts to leak, holy damn does the boat go down quick. Yesterday was a perfect example of that as Jermaine Eluemunor was treated like a revolving door by the majority of the Rams defensive line. The irony is that I’ve derided Cam Newton all year for what appeared to be a complete lack of anything resembling pocket presence or feel, and yesterday he had those things in droves. He was stepping up, moving around the pocket, and feeling the rush. But none of that matters when you are the blood in the water and there is an AaronDonald Shark loose in the backfield. Then there are his his targets. I’m not going too far with this because I have another blog coming later on this very topic. But it isn’t like we’ve set up our new QB with a lot of weapons. Or any really. Julian Edelman, our one (1) mainstay at wide out has been hurt. We literally didn’t have a TE yesterday, did that dawn on anybody? Dalton Keene is at this point a rookie mini-offensive tackle and I’m convinced Devin Asiasi is a Greek myth where a potentially talented is football player is drafted by the game’s most storied franchise only to be super glued to the bench for all of eternity to pay for past transgressions of his family, or fucking something along those lines. It’s not great. But with all that said, there are guys open. And that is really all that matters. You can’t blame who the guys are if they are getting open. Byrd, Meyers, Ryan Izzo when he is healthy, and yes, occasionally, when he isn’t blocking from the back, N’Keal Harry all get open. Yet all Cam Newton can due a good percentage of the time is dump the ball in the dirt, miss them by a mile, hit a defensive back in the chest, or completely question his own ability and not attempt the throw, which has happened all too often. None of that even mentions the ABBBSURD amount of passes the 6’5″ and change Newton has had deflected/knocked down this year. There have been games where our passing attack has looked like Mugsy Bogues shooting jump shots on Hakeem Olajuwon and there has been exactly zero explanation for it. This whole season, where his career is, and his own skill-set just have be in his head at this point. I can’t imagine what else it could be.
Through the deflections, the frustrating sacks taken, the overall lapses in judgement (I would have let Damien Harris taken his chances 1-1 in the open field against a linebacker from the five last night, that’s just me) I’m still rooting for Cam Newton. And that’s the thing. I’m still saying “Come on man, you can do this” when if this was any other QB I’d be anonymously reporting that they were exposed to the rona, robbed a bank, pee in the pool, doesn’t tip, or has bad breath. Anything to get them the fuck off my team. With Newton, I want him to do well, and I want him to do well with the Patriots. Still. Despite the asshole outfits. He’s just that easy to root for.
We dropped, in all probability, out of playoff contention last night. So Cam Newton probably will not bring the Pats to the heights that we once hoped, and for a lot of us, kept hoping for. This was most likely a one season thing. It won’t have the same feeling, desperately begging Newton to put it together to win these next few, meaningless games; to dig deep for the moral victories that will let us all sleep easier at night. And that just sucks. Because he is so damn easy to root for.
Patriots (2-5) vs Jets (0-8) MetLife Stadium Kickoff: 8:15 pm
I spent more time than I care to admit this morning looking for the old Keyshawn Johnson “Key Matchups” SportsCenter commercial, but it’s nowhere to be found. For a network that has made feature film length highlight shows of nothing but SportsCenter commercials to have one of the best examples completely scrubbed from the internet is odd, but I digress.
Patriots Inactives (Stephon Gilmore, N’Keal Harry, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Lawrence Guy, JJ Taylor) via PatsPulpit
The Patriots also have more than a dozen players listed as Questionable heading into Monday night including Ryan Izzo, who if you’ve been paying attention is the only active tight end on the roster that traveled with the team. So Cam Newton may have to just forget the tight end position is even an actual eligible receiver at this point. Not to mention, Julian Edelman is still on IR with a knee injury so it’ll be another night of throwing to Jakobi Meyers, Damiere Byrd, and the stable of running backs.
Sam Darnold is also doubtful to play with Joe Flacco most likely to get the start. I don’t know how the typical Jets fan feels about Darnold, but I like the player and I’d take him tomorrow if the Jets decide to draft a QB and move on. I get the sense that he’s yet another player that has been poisoned by the touch of offensive guru Adam Gase (see Tannehill, Drake, Stills etc.). Calling Gase an offensive guru at this point is, well, offensive.
Joe Flacco is forever living off that 6 week stretch when he got HOT and lead the Ravens to a Super Bowl in 2012. He was rewarded handsomely for that run with a 6-year $120 million extension, making him the highest paid player in the NFL at the time. All this for a player who ProFootballReference.com says has had a comparable career to that of Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, and Matt Hasselbeck. And that seems pretty accurate. Flacco has/had the physical tools to be elite at times, but was often a middle of the road QB and at times a complete bum. With that being said he’s been OK this year despite an 0-2 record, throwing for 1 TD and 1 INT albeit with a garish completion percentage of 51.9% So the Jets best hopes of finally stomping out the Patriots probaly went out the window once Darnold was ruled out, but the Pats are so bad this year you can’t rule it out.
Cam Newton/Jarrett Stidham/Brian Hoyer have not been much better though aside from the Seattle game, which seems like it was years ago at this point. I’m curious to see if the Pats double down on keeping the ball in Cam’s hands as much as possible with designed runs or if they take a step back after last week’s game ending fumble. This is a roster devoid of offensive talent outside of the running back position though so there aren’t a ton of other options for Josh McDaniels and the Patriots.
Jamison Crowder is expected to play after missing yet another game last week. When Crowder does play he has been a high end WR2, but he’s already missed four games this season so he’s been impossible for fantasy owners (like me) to rely on. Despite missing four games, Crowder still leads the Jets in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big game from him, especially if the Pats go up early.
Spread Patriots (-9.5) vs Jets (+9.5)
Despite being 2-5, the Pats are still nearly double digits favorites over the Jets (they’re even getting 10 points in some books). But even against the 0-8 Jets, I’m not comfortable laying 10 points with this increasingly ineffectual Patriots team. This is not the Patriots offense of my twenties so I’m not expecting a blowout tonight.
Prediction: Pats 17 Jets 10
The Jets have only scored more than 14 points twice this season so that doesn’t bode well for Gang Green, even with Stephon Gilmore out tonight. On the other side, Cam Newton has only thrown for 2 touchdowns with 7 picks in 6 games against varying strengths of defense. So I think the Patriots run day and night, control the clock, pop a couple TDs and get the hell out of there with an ugly W as the Jets continue their lonely march towards drafting Trevor Lawrence next year.
I’m not going to put the blame all on Cam Newton here despite the way that game ended. This team is clearly just not that good and Newton’s top receiver yesterday was a former quarterback, and no I’m not talking about Julian Edelman. The offensive play calling was suspect at best. With all that being said, Newton hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since Week 3. And I’m no NFL scout but it did look like Newton was laboring on a lot of his throws yesterday as he was still skipping passes on easy 5-10 yard routes. The offensive game plan yesterday was almost as if they were protecting Newton from himself. Newton was 15/25 with no touchdowns and no interceptions and there was almost nothing thrown deep. I looked at the drive charts for the Pats to see if my memory served me right and Newton had one completion of 28 yards, but that was thanks to a huge YAC play by James White. There was one medium range 22 yard completion to Damiere Byrd, but other than that there was nothing completed longer than 16 yards. So unsurprisingly the Bills were crowding the hell out of the box.
Meanwhile the Pats ran the ball 34 times, including 9 by Newton. So there was a lot of handing it off and more designed QB runs than we’ve seen in a while. I guess thats to be expected playing in the wind in Buffalo with two of your receivers out, but hey as Newton himself said the excuse basket is getting low. In the end the running was exactly what did them in as Newton failed to protect the ball while scrambling for a first and fumbled the game away.
To his credit he looked like he wanted to sit down in the shower and cry afterwards so I feel for him. But if you are unable to consistently move the ball through the air and are relying on your legs to make big plays then you have to protect the ball. The flashes this team showed on offense earlier in the season are now the Ghosts of Girlfriends Past.
I respect the hell out of the venom from FS1’s Tanya Ray Fox though. Say it louder for those in the back!
It only took Tom Brady leaving, no OTAs, no preseason, a bunch of starters opting out of the season, delayed games, weeks with no practice, Cam Newton getting and recovering from COVID, some bad weather and the world's stupidest fumble. Congrats on your big win, guys 🙃 https://t.co/BW3D2urnlk
So we now have to ask ourselves, is it time to move on from the Cam Newton experiment?
Sitting at 2-5 and having suffered four losses in a row this team is moving in reverse. They’ve guaranteed their worst record since 2018 (won the Super Bowl btw) and thats assuming they win out. I don’t know about you but I have a hard time imagining this team ripping off a 9-0 run. If they lose one more game, it’s their worst record since 2009 when they went 10-6 and lost in the Wild Card round. If they lose 2 more games it’s their worst record since 2002 when they went 9-7 and missed the playoffs sandwiched between two SB titles. And if they lose any more than that it would be their worst record since 2000 when they went 5-11 in Belichick’s first year at the helm.
Now I’m not excited for it, but I think its time to rip the Jarrett Stidham band-aid off and find out what exactly the Patriots have here. The team needs to figure out whether he’s the next guy or not. If that means trotting him out there for ritual sacrifice then so be it, but the Pats need to determine if Stidham can get it done. If not then they have to make a move this offseason. Theres 3-4 potential first round QBs likely coming out this year and the Patriots should be in a good position to get one of them, even if it’s not Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields.
There’s also been rumors about the return of the prodigal son Jimmy Garoppolo since the 49ers have reportedly been meh on him as the QB of the future.
But he did re-injure his ankle last night and according to Schefter will be out “indefinitely.” That comes after having already missed 2 games and then getting pulled in his first game back. Garoppolo has only made 30 starts out of a possible 56 games in four years in San Francisco due to various injuries including a torn ACL. My point being, I would not be shocked if the Niners decide to move on from him after this season. So if you’re a Patriots fan do you still want him? Do you think Bill can rekindle whatever magic he thought he had with the young QB? I’m not so sure of that as I was just a week ago. Especially after this latest injury since Belichick loves to say the best ability is availability. Either way the Pats will undoubtedly be kicking the tires on anyone with an arm attached to their body this offseason.
The Patriots are in a tough position brought on by the greatest player of all time leaving town, but also from poor drafting over the last few years finally catching up to them. The Pats are one of the oldest teams in the league as a result. Think about it, all of their best players are on the wrong side of 30: Edelman, Stephon Gilmore, both McCourtys, Matthew Slater, plus all the guys who opted out.
The book is out on this year’s draft class, but offensive lineman Michael Onwenu may have been a steal in the 6th round as Pro Football Focus has him ranked as the No. 1 rookie in the league. It’s debatable how much stock to put into PFF rankings, but being No. 1 on any list is pretty damn good.
Michael Onwenu is @PFF's highest-graded rookie in 2020.
He's played 80+ snaps at three different positions along the offensive line.
The books is probably still out on last year too. Chase Winovich looks like a nice role player, Joejuan Williams has shown potential, as has Damien Harris (now that he’s on the field), but N’Keal Harry has been underwhelming and we may soon find out with Jarrett Stidham. 2018 highlights include Isaiah Wynn and Sony Michel. Sigh. Ja’Waun Bentley has flashed at times, other than that there was Ryan Izzo, Braxton Berrios, and Danny Etling as notable names that year. 2017 landed them Deatrich Wise and three whiffs. 2016 was the year they took Cyrus Jones with their first pick and he was an unmitigated disaster. They did draft Joe Thuney that year though who’s been great, Ted Karras has been a solid contributor on the OL, Jacoby Brissett filled in for a game, Elandon Roberts, and a huge what if player in Malcolm Mitchell who looked awesome before knee injuries prematurely ended his career.
So yea, 5 years and arguably two elite players in Thuney and *maybe* Onwenu, but it’s way too early to tell. Other than that Belichick has collected role players, which is a far cry from the 2010 draft he absolutely NAILED, picking up Devin McCourty, Gronk, Brandon Spikes, pre-murderous Aaron Hernandez, and even a starting punter in Zoltan Mesko.
Bill Belichick on @OMFonWEEI: "I mean, look, we paid Cam Newton $1 million. It’s obvious that we didn’t have any money. It’s nobody’s fault. That’s what we did the last five years. We sold out. We won three Super Bowls, played in a fourth and played in an AFC Championship Game." pic.twitter.com/5LGeUboNGA
I don’t say all this to be an alarmist, I say it to be pragmatic. This team is facing a tall order and needs to really nail their next series of moves and the next draft to set themselves up for a rebound. If nothing else do it to shut up the Fired Football Coaches of America chirping from the peanut gallery like Rex Ryan.
I was watching this live yesterday and Rex was trying to play it cool and say it matter of factly, but you could feel the simmering rage in his voice after getting beat like a drum by Belichick and Brady for years.
Sitting at 2-4 and coming off the worst loss in the Belichick era, the Patriots are at a crossroads. Not to be dramatic, but the result of this game could decide the next two years of this franchise’s direction. If the Pats lose Sunday they’ll have five losses for just the second time in the last 10 years and I’ll be forced to drink whiskey by the fire while playing old highlights on my phone.
Meanwhile Tom Brady is ripping it up in Tampa, was just named the NFC Offensive Player of the Month, and leads the NFC in QB Rating. Compared to Cam Newton and Jarrett Stidham who rank 39th and 40th respectively.
Julian Edelman just underwent a knee procedure and was placed on IR so he’s out for at least the next three weeks, N’Keal Harry is out this week with a concussion, and Stephon Gilmore is out with a knee injury too. So good luck to whoever is under center for the Pats today.
Oh and Stephon Gilmore just put his house on the market so thats encouraging.
Win or lose today, the NFL trade deadline is Tuesday. So the Patriots will have to decide whether they want to say fuck it and double down on a flawed squad and bring in reinforcements or concede this just isn’t their year and start selling off assets to stock the war chest for the future. Thats why this game is so monumental, if the Pats fall to 2-5, I fully expect them to trade off some key players, which would put this team into rebuild mode.
With that being said, I find it downright impossible the Patriots continue to play as poorly as they have the last two weeks and sink to the bottom of the league. Thats why I don’t think Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence is a realistic possibility so lets get that out of our heads right now. However, the Pats do need to find out in the coming weeks whether Jarrett Stidham is the next guy or not. Because if he’s not the Pats need to make a move this offseason. Whether thats the return of the prodigal son Jimmy G or it’s Belichick drafting a quarterback higher than he ever has before. I don’t know what has happened to Newton, I don’t know if he’s hurt, if he doesn’t have enough “weapons,” if he’s cashed, or if this offense just ultimately isn’t a good fit for his style of play. But the guy we saw in Seattle who looked like he would threaten for MVP votes has been a no show the past month. So this game is huge for him too because if Newton no shows again and the team sells off key players at the trade deadline, it’s going to be even more difficult for him to rebuild his value for next season.
So nothing to worry about in Buffalo except just the future of the franchise, no big deal. I did not expect to be staring at our worst record in a decade all before Thanksgiving so show us something today boys.
Spin cycle activated. Yes, Brian Hoyer hype videos do indeed exist.
Now that Cam Newton is out for at least this game if not multiple games after testing positive for COVID, we get a peak at what the Patriots would have looked like had they never signed Cam in the first place since Hoyer was QB1 earlier this summer.
If that highlight video doesn’t make you feel any better, well let’s take a look at Hoyer’s career stats. Hoyer’s teams are 16-22 when he is the starter and he has a career 59.1 completion percentage, 7 yards per attempt career avg, 52 touchdowns and 32 picks, with an 82.5 career QBR.
Time to test the theory that Belichick can win with anybody under center, but this is his biggest test since Matt Cassel was taking snaps in 2008.
There’s also Jarrett Stidham on the bench, but if you believe what you hear on talk radio, which I take with a gigantic grain of salt, the team apparently buried him on the depth chart after he took a road trip to Texas for a wedding during the offseason. I always found that, if true, to be an over the top punishment, even for Belichick. But hey when the greatest quarterback of all time leaves town creating a wide open, glowing opportunity for you to become a starter in the NFL, you probably don’t want your boss to think you’re doing anything other than playing, practicing, studying, and dreaming about football.
With on again, off again Patriots QB Hoyer most likely getting the start tonight the Pats have gone from -7 point underdogs to -11, which would be the third largest spread in the league this week. So Vegas is not feeling it.
I think the Pats are probably going to get dusted tonight if we’re being honest. They were already big underdogs to begin with, now they’re starting their backup QB on the road, on short notice, and are straight up commuting to Kansas City on game day to play the defending Super Bowl champs.
Theres no moral victories in the NFL, but hey if you want a silver lining, maybeeee this helps the Patriots if they end up playing the Chiefs again in the playoffs since KC won’t have any game tape of Cam vs the Chiefs. I don’t want to come off like an In Belichick We Trust goon so I’m going to leave it at that, but hey you asked for a silver lining.
The real problem is what if Cam misses multiple games? The Patriots play the Broncos next week, who they should be able to beat without Newton and then thankfully Week 6 is their bye. So that would give Newton three weeks before hopefully returning for Week 7 vs the 49ers, who would presumably have Jimmy G back by then. But you never know, Eduardo Rodriguez came down with COVID and missed the rest of the season due to complications.
Also considering not a single other Patriots player tested positive, for a guy who is renting a place, who intentionally did not move his family to New England because it’s a “business trip,” and orders vegan takeout food rather than going out — how the hell did he even get coronavirus?
Welp, hopefully Newton, as we hope for anyone that has contracted COVID, recovers and is back to full strength quickly. Until then, enjoy the Brian Hoyer Experience.
Patriots’ QB Jarrett Stidham was taken to a local hospital on Thursday for precautionary tests on his upper leg that came back negative, per league sources. Stidham returned to the team this morning and went through practice Friday, though with a lighter load than usual.
From Inside Training Camp Live: #Patriots QB Jarrett Stidham is dealing with a hip injury that won’t be 100% for a few weeks… though he is fighting to play through it, anyway. pic.twitter.com/GcOIYtmmgH
So it came out this morning that Jarrett Stidham suffered an injury, the extent of which is anyone’s guess, but it was serious enough for the team to take him to the hospital.
I guess this eliminates the need for a blog I had started writing yesterday morning: Would the Patriots Ever Really Run Multiple QBs in the Regular Season? Someone asked Belichick if he would consider the option since all three QBs were splitting reps pretty evenly until yesterday. And I don’t mean play multiple QBs when Hoyer starts the first 3 games and throws 9 interceptions and gets benched. I’m talking about a college style offense where Stidham plays 20 snaps and then Josh McDaniels sends Cam Newton in with his own package of plays. You know the old saying, if you have two quarterbacks you have none. It’s an old saying because it’s true.
Well it would seem like thats out the window now if Stidham is in fact injured. Unless Cam is an absolute bonehead and can’t pick up any of the playbook, which he’s not, then there’s no reason to start Brian Hoyer over a former MVP. I’ll roll the dice with a former MVP every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Sorry Brian, you definitely got a raw deal here but those are the facts.
Granted the Patriots don’t every say anything about anything, but the team is already downplaying the significance of Stidham’s injury.
Patriots OC Josh McDaniels says of Jarrett Stidham: “I’m pretty sure he’ll be ready to roll the next time we practice.” https://t.co/lN13oHWXkQ
Who knows whats true and whats not, but I do know that you don’t go to the hospital unless something is seriously wrong. This isn’t the UFC where guys go to the hospital as a post fight routine. So something was hurting him enough that the team thought a visit to the hospital was warranted. Either way, this conveniently wraps up the QB “competition” before it ever really heated up. There were reports of Newton starting to take over more of the first team reps while Stidham had been having an atrocious week throwing multiple picks. So this makes it that much easier for Belichick to give the job to Newton while the team quietly reassesses what it has with Stidham and makes a long term decision at the QB position.
As you all have heard by now the Patriots did the most Patriots thing ever this week and signed a former elite player on a massively team friendly deal. The marriage of Cam Newton and the Patriots is not something I expected, but I also was told by the Boston media all offseason how high the team was on Jarrett Stidham with Brian Hoyer being the adult in the room for at least a little while. Welp, it seems like Belichick had merely been eyeing a fancy new toy for months just waiting for the price to drop before finally deciding to pull the trigger. Newton comes to New England on an incentive laden one-year prove it deal as the signal caller looks to bounce back from an injury shortened season last year.
Jarrett Stidham’s head must be spinning right now. The heir apparent to the Patriots QB1 only had to beat out veteran journeyman Hoyer to earn the job. Now he’s got Hoyer and a former league MVP boxing him out of the starting gig. Stidham took a road trip to Texas with the wife and got Wally Pipped before he even got off the Pike. Stidham checking his ESPN notifications and seeing the Newton signing:
By the way, this also goes to show you to never, ever, ever discount what the wise guys are saying in Vegas. Oddsmakers had the Patriots as the favorites to sign Newton months ago and we all thought what the hell are they talking about? Whoops.
Julian Edelman seems to already be on board with the former MVP coming to Gillette though.
Using the infamous and ridiculous Cam Newton font in his post legitimately made me laugh out loud.
Although Tom Brady was immediately in Edelman’s comments like an ex-girlfriend trying to honey dick him.
You left Jules, Tom! Let him be happy with someone else.
I’ve been a big fan of Ham Newton’s game ever since his days at Auburn when he crushed my dreams as a Boston based Oregon stan in the National Championship. So I’m pretty excited to see what one of the most dynamic QBs in the game can do with the best coach in the history of the league.
KEY STATS
People point to Newton’s career 59% completion percentage as a reason why he won’t fit here, but I fully expect the Pats to run the snot out of the ball this year. They were already trending that way the last couple of seasons, drafting Sony Michel in the first round, and this past offseason using the franchise tag to bring back Left Tackle Joe Thuney. Now factor in that Newton’s completion % is nearly 10% higher on play action than it is on non-play action plays. His completion percentage on play action is 68%, which will pick teams apart if the Pats can develop a decent running game in 2020.
If the Pats do want to jam Newton into the Tom Brady quick, short pass offense? His accuracy is not as good as Brady’s (Brady is 63% career), but their time holding onto the ball and average yards per throw is surprisingly close. In 2018 (Newton’s last *almost* full season with 14 games) Cam averaged 2.69 Time to Throw compared to Brady’s 2.62 seconds and 5 Completed Air Yards compared to Brady’s 5.6. He also had a Passer Rating of 94.2 compared to Brady’s 97.7 with a Completion Percentage of 67.9 compared to Brady’s 65.8.
Tom Brady is the GOAT and my favorite athlete of all time, but Cam Newton is not a bad replacement if healthy. Newton also only threw two more picks than Brady despite having an Aggressiveness % of 17.2 to Brady’s 13.9. And if that stat is entirely new to you as it is one I found that fits my agenda, have no fear: “Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts.”
INJURY HISTORY
As with any player, especially at QB, a recent injury history like Newton’s is alarming. Pats Pulpit does a great job of breaking it down extensively, but here are the spark notes.
January 2019 – Shoulder surgery on his throwing arm
December 2019 – Foot surgery for a Lisfranc fracture
2014 – Ankle Surgery
It’s not an overly lengthy injury history, but it is a very recent one. Shoulder and foot injuries for a 31-year-old mobile QB are not ideal. Thats why he was available though and the last thing you want to do is repeat the Dolphin’s fatal mistake when they passed on Drew Brees in 2006 because of his shoulder injury. They went with Daunte Culpepper instead and have sucked for the past 14 years, meanwhile the Saints took a chance and won a Super Bowl as Brees flourished into a Hall of Famer.
FIT WITH PATS
As I mentioned earlier, this Patriots team already seemed poised to run the hell out of the ball so bringing in Cam Newton makes sense as they could utilize any of their half dozen runningbacks (is Damien Harris still alive and well?) and run the old Full House package from Madden ad nauseum. I don’t expect the Patriots to morph into an RPO team overnight like the Ravens did with Lamar Jackson, but I do expect a ton of Shotgun and spreading the defense out so Newton can utilize his strengths.
I honestly think James White might catch 100 balls this year (career high 87 in 2018). Newton looves throwing to his runningbacks. Sure he’s had the best RB in the game in Christian McCaffrey, but Newton threw to his RB1 more and more each year. From 2016-2019 McCaffrey had 80, 107, and 116 receptions on 113, 124, and a whopping 142 targets last year. Somewhat surprisingly that was *only* 8th in the NFL in total targets, but it also was 34 (!) more than any other RB in the game.
Obviously the Patriots have not had a mobile quarterback really ever, even before Brady, but when you see the actual numbers compared to Newton it is jarring.
Mobile quarterbacks have only very recently started to find success in the NFL so it clearly never hurt the Patriots before, but adding this element to their offense will be a welcome bonus to having Newton under center.
Mike Reiss said on ESPN the other day he believes the Pats will keep their offense 75% the same with about 25% changed to suit Newton.
Lets not forget that Josh McDaniels did in fact draft Tim Tebow in the first round back in 2010 while he was the HC in Denver. The Pats also had some fun with their most mobile quarterback since Doug Flutie when Jacoby Brissett was forced into emergency starting duties against the Texans in 2016. The Pats ran some RPO and Brissett ran the ball 10 times that game, including this 30 yard TD on a designed QB run.
And Brissett’s not even a mobile quarterback! He just looked that way compared to the Clydesdale that is TB12. Cam Newton ran a 4.59 40 yard dash at the combine compared to Brissett’s 4.94. Granted Newton has since had foot surgery, but my point is the Pats had a great game plan for a guy that runs a slower 40 time than me. Imagine what kind of damage they can do with a guy like Newton?
EXPECTATIONS
I’ve said in the past that watching Newton last year he looked cooked, but coming off a shoulder surgery less than a year prior and then injuring his foot really decimated any chance he had of stepping into throws. Not to mention his ability to scramble, so its no surprise he looked terrible. But Cam was great as recently as 2018 even though his season was cut short after 14 games with the shoulder injury. In 2018 Newton threw for 3,400 yards, 24 TDs, 13 INTs, 67.9% completion percentage, 94.2 Rating, with 488 yards rushing and 4 TDs. A far cry from his MVP year, but this is also with him throwing to his runningback, DJ Moore, Devin Funchess, Jarius Wright, Curtis Samuel, something called Ian Thomas, and a 33-year-old Greg Olsen. Not a ton of household names in there outside of McCaffrey.
CBS Sports’ Will Brinson was on Toucher and Rich this week calling Cam the greatest QB in league history and is *very* high on the fit.
“I think if Cam is healthy, Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick will unleash a really lethal offense…Rob Gronkowski is the second greatest red zone threat in league history and Cam Newton is No. 1 because he can run the ball.”
Although would it surprise me if Belichick just up and decides it’s not working and cuts Newton in training camp? With an incentive laden one-year contract, it would not shock me. I’d hate to see that happen though because this is the most excited I’ve been to watch the Patriots since Brady left for Tampa.
The fit remains to be seen, but I think Newton is DYING to prove he is still an elite QB in a league that is now littered with mobile QBs. Newton was the prototype so it must really piss him off to see half a dozen QBs winning with his blueprint. He wants to prove he is still the alpha and if he is fully healthy, motivation will not be a problem so I am excited to see what Belichick and McDaniels do with him.
JERSEY TIME?
I have to admit, I was pretty meh on the new Pats jerseys when they came out, but I think part of that was probably with Brady leaving town there wasn’t really any other players that made me want to buy a $100 jersey. I already have an Edelman jersey, Devin McCourty flirts with retirement more and more these days, Dont’a Hightower is also on the wrong side of 30. I love Chase Winovich, but I need to see him on the field more before I even think about elevating him to jersey status. N’Keal Harry needs to catch about a dozen touchdowns this year to get into this conversation. So who does that leave? Maybe Stephon Gilmore? I guess if I had to pull the trigger it would be either White (a Super Bowl hero) or Patrick Chung (a longtime Patriot who does anything and everything). BUT, I gotta say, this looks pretty sexy.
I have a rule that I don’t buy jerseys of players unless they have recently signed a contract extension so as to not end up with another Sergei Samsonov jersey that immediately became a throwback about a week after I bought it. But if Ham Newton has 10 touchdowns in September, it’s going to be pretty hard to keep my credit card in my pocket. Even if he is only on a one-year contract.
Would still be a better jersey to won than the two *different* guys I’ve seen wearing John Lynch Patriots jerseys in Allston over the years (Lynch retired before the start of the 2008 season).
Or maybe the injuries have finally caught up to a guy who has absolutely abused his body for the past decade and Newton really is cooked. Well its a win-win situation for the Pats. They get a 31-year-old, hyper motivated former MVP QB, who will not be fazed in the slightest about replacing a legend and ultimately dominates with a fresh start OR we get A+ fashion shows every week that will provide weeks worth of content.
To kick this off. Who do you see, Good performance or not, off the Pats roster after this game?
Mattes: Brian Hoyer. While a lot of people may be averse to placing so much confidence in the preseason play of a rookie QB, the fact is that Jarrett Stidham has looked pretty sharp. This is also a kid who was once viewed as a first- or second-round pick before a “down” season at Auburn last year. And above all, there are too many other depth questions at other positions throughout the roster to keep three QBs – something, by the way, that Belichick has done only TWICE in the past decade. It would just be straight foolish. I’d much rather keep an extra WR or DL than keep a mediocre-at-best backup QB who may never even need to see the field. I’d actually be pretty pissed if they do keep Hoyer. There’s no reason for him to be here anymore.
Joey B: Agreed 100% on Hoyer. My only caveat would be I could see them keeping until after final cuts, which gives him less of a chance of getting snatched up right away and us a better chance of resigning him should something to Stidham or….I’m not saying his name.
I personally think it’s curtains for Duke Dawson. Despite his size and balls skills he just never has been able to actually cover anyone. Much like your stance on Hoyer, why keep an extra player here when we could use depth somewhere else.
You mentioned the WR group. Give me your 5 and 6 man versions of our corps after this week. Who stays and who goes?
Mattes: I agree; I don’t expect them to cut Hoyer tomorrow. In fact, I could see them trying to trade him to someone first. (Maybe the Colts?? I mean, they already have one former Pats backup QB, so why not another?) And I totally agree on Dawson, too. He was a real talented kid coming out of Florida, but injuries set him back pretty far, and there is just too much talent and depth at the corner position otherwise. Especially with guys like Jonathan Jones and Keion Crossen (one of my guys I said to watch in camp this year) playing so well – not to mention rookie JoeJuan Williams – I just don’t see how Dawson makes the final cut.
My prediction for the final group at wide receiver is as follows: Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, N’Keal Harry, Phillip Dorsett, Jakobi Meyers, and Demaryius Thomas. Some may be surprised to see Thomas, who just got back onto the field this week, make the roster, but apparently the team loves him. He’s a great veteran influence in a very young/inexperienced group outside of Jules, and I think they want to see if the former perennial Pro Bowler still has something left in the tank before cutting bait. Also, people might be shocked to see Berrios not make the cut. To be honest, though, he really hasn’t done much to stand out this summer, and there are even reports that he’s struggled mightily in terms of getting past coverage and muscling through defenders in practice. He’s displayed some solid punt-return ability, but to this point he’s not really proven why he’s any more special than any other “slot guy with potential” throughout the league. Hopefully the Pats get lucky and can slide him to the practice squad, because there’s some potential there. But I don’t think he’s quite NFL ready yet.
Joey B: No arguments here, I don’t think Berrios makes it either. He just hasn’t panned out plain and simple. Also, am I wrong in remembering he has actually muffed a punt or two aside from his decent returning resume so far?
The only threat to Thomas might be Gunner Olszewski. the team seems high on the kid and he has that “scrappiness” they like. If they don’t keep him then definitely expect them to try and stash him on the practice squad.
The other overload of players I see us having is on the D-Line. Any surprising stayers or goers there?
Mattes: I just can’t see Olszewski making the cut. He’s a cool story, but he’s a flash in the pan. Maybe he’s another one who can sneak onto the P-squad or something.
And there aren’t really any big surprise cuts that I’m expecting. I would’ve said Duron Harmon, because while he has been a solid role player in the secondary for years, I think he’s hit his ceiling and perhaps the staff might’ve been willing to try and get some more young talent on the roster. Further, I think newcomer Terrence Brooks has already won the staff over, and he’s a special teams stud. However, with the whole Pat Chung situation, I think Harmon is pretty much a lock to make the team now.
One surprise roster “make,” though, is DT Byron Cowart. Cowart is a former five-star recruit who the team drafted in the fifth round out of Maryland this year. Due to being misused by the coaching staff and other “issues,” he slipped a bit in the draft, but he has been a monster this summer. He really broke out against the Titans in the second preseason game, and scouts around the league are saying the Pats might have nabbed one of the biggest steals of the draft with him. Especially after the team cut bait with Mike Pennel last week, I’m excited to see what this Cowart kid could do with this opportunity.
Joey B: Hmm Harmon would be a surprise. He’s just always been rock solid and I think between him and the snaps J.McCourty has seen at Safety the Pats have any Chung absence covered. I can’t see them entrusting a newcomer like Brooks with the magnitude of Chung’s role.
Cowart has indeed been a stud. He might take Derek Rivers spot which is kind of a shame considering his promise coming out.
I kicked this thought around with Friend Of The Blog, Patty B., but I think Phillip Dorsett could be a surprise cut. I have no tangible evidence to support this, but Dorsett has always been a “one or two big plays” guy rather than a steady presence and so I wouldn’t be completely shocked if the Pats lets him go in favor of one of the young guns. I hope not though.
Either way things are going to get interesting over the next week. Hold onto ya butts.
Okay so maybe *technically* speaking I wasn’t on the show, but I’ll take the exposure however I can get it so shoutout to my guy Tom E. Curran. For anyone thats too lazy to watch the clip Tom says I should zero in on the middle guy there in Ryan Mallet for the most appropriate comparison to Jarrett Stidham and thats not exactly promising.
Although I have to admit I am shocked and offended and hurt that Tom didn’t name drop us on the air. Had me feeling like Walter White, aside from all the blue meth making and money laundering.
The 300s 