Tag: Justin Herbert

Gridiron Tales Week 16 Continued: A Thousand Miles (Sanders) Edition

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Eagles RB Miles Sanders week-to-week with lower body injury

Saturday: 0-2

Season: 24-15

Recap: See, what had happened was no one can predict injuries, let alone Stafford suffering an ankle injury early in the first quarter that would naturally sink his completions prop, while also ensuring that Leonard Fournette would only have to play the first half because the Bucs were on fire. We wish Matthew a speedy recovery.

But it’s a new day! Yes, it is!



The First Pick: Miles Sanders O80.5 rushing yards vs DAL (-112)

Fact #1: The Cowboys have allowed 146.2 rushing yards per game over the last 5 weeks, which is the 2nd-most yards allowed over that span.

Fact #2: The Cowboys have allowed 3 RBs (Dalvin Cook, Antonio Gibson and Gus Edwards) to each eclipse 100 yards on the ground.

Fact #3: Miles did eclipse 81 rush yards against the Saints (115), so we know he can do this with Hurts being more mobile than Wentz.


Second Pick: D.K. Metcalf U70.5 receiving yards vs LAR (-112)

Fact #1: Jalen Ramsey is on the other side of the ball.

Fact #2: The last time Ramsey was on the other side of the ball, Metcalf was held to 4 targets and 2 catches for 28 yards.

Fact #3: Metcalf has posted totals of 61 (vs NYJ) and 43 (at WFT) over the past two weeks.


Third Pick: Jalen Hurts O1.5 passing TDs vs DAL (+100)

Fact #1: The only QBs not to pass for at least 2 scores against Dallas this season are Jared Goff (Week 1), Daniel Jones (Week 5), Alex Smith (Week 12) and Brandon Allen (Week 14). Yes, that means Wentz threw 2 scores on Dallas in the first meeting!

Fact #2: Hurts is coming off a 3-pass TD game against Arizona and this game could very much mirror that one for him.


Fourth Pick: Justin Herbert O24.5 completions vs DEN (-112)

Fact #1: In the first matchup, he totaled 29 back in Week 8, albeit with Keenan Allen in the lineup.

Fact #2: Mahomes (25), Bridgewater (30) and Josh Allen (28) have each completed 25+ passes on Denver’s defenses over the last 3 weeks.

Fact #3: Herbert has completed 25+ passes in three of his last 4 games.

Bonus: With many receivers down in this Browns-Jets game, I have to put a sprinkle on fellow Owl Harrison Bryant to score a TD (+300)

Gridiron Tales Week 14: You Like That Edition

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Last week: 4-0

Season: 18-9

Highlight the Highs: Everything went well last week, including a Tuesday night special that saw Andy Dalton go over with his completions.

Nothing to loathe when you go 4-0!


The pick: Mike Glennon O23.5 completions (-106) vs Titans

Fact #1: The Titans defense is allowing an average of 26.2 completions per game — the most in the NFL over the past 5 weeks

Fact #2: Glennon turned 31 on Saturday, so this would be a great present to himself and over suitors

Fact #3: They’ll be playing catch-up when their defense lets Mr. Henry run all over them

The pick: Kirk Cousins O22.5 completions (-118) vs the Buccaneers

Fact 1: The Bucs have allowed an average of 31.3 completions per game over the past five weeks — the most in the NFL over this span (4 games played)

Fact #2: Tompa Bay has allowed the fewest rushing yards to RBs over this same 5-week span (233; 58.3 rush yds/game). So as great as Mr. Cook is, Tompa Bay is built to slow him down.

Fact #3: Since Week 7, Teddy “2 Gloves” (18) is the only QB not to complete at least 23 passes against Tompa Bay.

James Koh on Twitter: "PODCAST! Broncos insider @TroyRenck gives us the latest news regarding Kirk Cousins and how keeping or cutting Emmanuel Sanders/Demaryius/CJ Anderson will play a role in signing him. https://t.co/gtQRqGUdD2…

The Pick: Justin Herbert O274.5 passing yards (-129) vs ATL

Fact #1: Everyone and their mother expects Herbert to bounce back after last week’s 45-0 drubbing at the hands of new England

Fact #2: Herbert has attempted 154 passes over the past 3 games, resulting in totals of 366 (vs NYJ), 316 (@ BUF) and 209 against New England last week

Fact #3: The Falcons have allowed the 9th-fewest passing yards over the past 5 weeks for two reasons:

Reason No. 1: They’ve faced Taysom Hill twice

Reason No. 2: They’ve played four games when most have played five (bye week)

Fact #4: Herbert averages 314.8 pass yards per game at home compared to 267 on the road

The Pick: David Montgomery O67.5 rushing yards (-112) vs HOU

Fact #1: Montgomery has eclipsed 70 rushing yards in three of his last four games

Fact #2: The Texans have allowed a league-high 620 rushing yards over the last five weeks

Gridiron Tales: NFL Week 9 Picks

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Folks, let me introduce myself. I have gone by many names: Big Game, G-Smooth, Jimmy Lips, etc. But for these exercises, I’m just the dude who researches sports information and makes educated guesses on the outcomes of player performances. There will be facts. There will be jokes. And hopefully, there will be success. 

Let’s start out west in the Raiders and Chargers game.

Justin Herbert O270.5 pass yds (-115)

Co-Rookie of the Year favorite, Justin Herbert has been money both on the field and for fantasy owners this season. He has passed for over 271 yards in five of his six starts and the only time he didn’t was in his MNF showdown in Nola, when he finished with 264.

Over the past four games, the Raiders have allowed the following passing yard totals: 

  • Josh Allen – 288
  • Patrick Mahomes – 340
  • Tom Brady – 369 
  • Baker Mayfield – 122

Context is needed for the Mayfield outlier and it should be noted that the winds were howling and it was raining the entire game last Sunday.

DJ Chark O50.5 rec yds (-112)

Jaguars WR DJ Chark was not originally going to make the cut, but sometimes you have to wait (5 days) for good things to happen. 

Texans CB Bradley Roby is out on Sunday due to disciplinary reasons. 

“So what, James?!”

Well, that’s significant because that frees up Chark to roam a bit more comfortably. You’ll recall that Davante Adams just torched the Texans in Week 7 for 13-196-2. I am in no way implying that DJ Chark doo doo doo doo doo doo is Adams, but that Week 7 performance came with Roby on the field. 

Over the past 5 weeks, the Texans have allowed just under 200 rec yds per game to WRs and the 2nd-most TDs to that position over that span (9).

Sterling Shepard O4.5 catches (-118) and O54.5 rec yds (-112)

I know what you’re thinking: “James, I don’t even know you, and yet I can tell this is a homer pick.”

Hear me out with these quick facts, though:

-Shepard has 18 targets over the past two games

-Shepard has has gone over 54 in each of those contests

-Shepard has 6+ catches in three of his four games this season

-WFT has allowed 3 WRs (Kupp, Woods & Cooper) to go over 54 yds in the last 3 gms

So this may very well be a homer pick, but it's a well-researched pick.

If the World Ends and Tom Brady Does Leave, Who Do You Want at QB for the Patriots?

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I hate even typing these words, it’s like saying Candyman five times in the mirror; just don’t. But what if Tom Brady does leave? What are the options and who do you want under center in Foxborough? With the legal tampering period beginning on March 16th and Free Agency beginning on March 18th, we should have an answer one way or another in the next 2 weeks. If Brady does decide to take his talents elsewhere, the Patriots have a host of different options available, some more attractive than others. Lets break it down.

  • Options Currently on the Patriots Roster
    • Jarret Stidham
      • Drafted in the 4th round last year, the Patriots clearly saw something in Stidham who has impressed in the pre-season, but most fans remember him as the guy that blew the spread with a pick six against the Jets in relief duty of Brady last season. It’s too early to say if Stidham is the guy or not, but I don’t think his presence will prevent the Patriots from exploring any and all other options.
    • Cody Kessler
      • Kessler has been running the scout team on the Patriots practice squad and despite Belichick’s odd fascination with the career backup, he’s not the answer.
  • Trade Options
    • Andy Dalton
      • I hate to besmirch a fellow redhead because these are my people, but I just cannot get behind the Patriots starting the post-Tom Brady era with the Red Rifle. He’s had some decent seasons and has been dealing with a TON of injuries over the years to his top weapons in AJ Green and Tyler Eifert so maybe take his lack of sustained success with a grain of salt. He’s only thrown more than 25 touchdowns twice in his career though and hasn’t done it since 2013 so he hasn’t exactly been lighting it up. Whether thats more of a reflection on him or the disaster that is the Bengals is debatable, but this isn’t the guy I am pining for.
    • Matt Stafford
      • This one gained steam towards the end of last week when Patriots color commentator Scott Zolak floated it out of nowhere on 98.5 so it probably has at least been discussed by the Pats. Stafford has never gotten a ton of love, but has always been a legitimate (fantasy) quarterback despite playing for a desolate franchise in the Lions. His contract is also surprisingly cheap based on the way it’s structured so it definitely makes sense for the Patriots if they can get Stafford for a reasonable price. However he did BREAK HIS BACK last year though so proceed with caution on this one. With the No. 3 pick in this year’s draft the Lions could be thinking the same thing and looking to move on from Stafford so keep your eye on this one.
  • Free Agency
    • Marcus Mariota
      • Alright, hand up, I am a Mariota stan and watched as many of his games at Oregon as I possibly could so this may be a little biased. Granted, he’s not the only Heisman winning QB to flame out in the NFL (looking at you Troy Smith), but I honestly think with Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick coaching him the Pats could turn him into a legit starter. Like most scrambling QBs, Mariota hasn’t been the same since he broke his fibula in Week 16 of the 2016 season. Before that though he was pretty solid with 26 TDs and 9 INTs in his first full season before his TDs and Yards dropped off for 2+ seasons resulting in him getting benched. With a 7.5 Yards per Attempt he definitely doesn’t air it out, but even Brady was 26th in the league at 6.6 Yards per Attempt last season. In fact, you know what Brady’s average Yards per Attempt is for his career? That would be the same exact 7.5 as Mariota so you obviously don’t need to air it out to be successful in this offense.
    • Philip Rivers
      • I wouldn’t hate it as Rivers is only one season removed from making the Pro Bowl with 32 TDs and 12 INTs before getting upset by the Pats in the playoffs. He has thrown 15+ INTs six different times though so the Pats may not be keen on a 38-year-old cowboy.
    • Jameis Winston
      • Winston most likely gets franchised by the Bucs unless Tampa somehow convinces Brady to sign there. It would be a hard sell to bring in a guy that just threw 30 picks too. So despite Bruce Arians’ complete inability to hide his disdain for Winston, he may not be on the market unless Brady shocks everyone and moves to the strip club capital of the world.
    • Ryan Tannehill
      • Similar to the situation in Tampa, the Titans will probably franchise or workout a deal with Tannehill unless Brady signs with the Titans, which is the reported favorite outside of New England. Tannehill was excellent last year as were many of his former Dolphins teammates who all seemed to thrive after Miami traded them away. After never posting a rating higher than 94 in six years as the Dolphins QB, Tannehill had a rating of 117.5 last year for the Titans. That’s an absurd improvement. So I wouldn’t bank on Tannehill all of a sudden having turned into an elite QB.
  • Dip Into the Draft
    • Tua Tagovailoa
      • Barring a massive and unforeseen slide in the draft, the Pats would have to trade an absolute haul of picks to move up far enough to snag Tua so this ain’t happening.
    • Justin Herbert
      • The former Duck could go anywhere from No. 5-25 depending on how his combine and interviews go so it’s possible the Pats could trade up if he slides a bit, but I doubt they lust after him enough to move up too much.
    • Jake Fromm
      • This is the guy that I think makes the most sense for the Pats. An undervalued, smart guy who doesn’t have a monster arm but can still make all the throws, ran a pro style offense and has a ton of experience with 43 starts at Georgia. As someone who’s projected to go late in the first (or later), Fromm is someone the Pats could take without overextending themselves.
    • Jordan Love
      • A big arm, scrambling ability, and a ton of potential without a lengthy track record, Jordan Love is basically the 2020 version of Josh Allen. The Patriots have met with the Utah State QB so there is some interest, but this isn’t the type of player Belichick typically wants under center.
    • Random 6th round dart throw
      • Hey it worked for them once right?

Those are the best options barring a blockbuster move nobody sees coming, but the list of Free Agent quarterbacks is LITTERED with bums so pick your poison. If you don’t like any of the names above you can always pick from the likes of Case Keenum, Colt McCoy, AJ McCarron, Blaine Gabbert, Blake Bortles, Geno Smith ALRIGHT ALRIGHT ENOUGH. The point has been made.

An intriguing option nobody has mentioned is Kyle Allen, who had a pretty good stretch filling in for Cam Newton before falling back to Earth. The Panthers have said they are planning to roll with Newton in 2020, but Carolina may be wary of trading a solid backup with Newton’s health far from certain. Allen’s numbers weren’t exactly lights out finishing with 17 TDs, 16 INTs, 3,322 Yards, and an abysmal 6.79 Yards per Attempt, but he could be a dark horse candidate for a young QB the Pats think they can coach up.

So lets all just pray to the old gods and the new that Tom Brady doesn’t go anywhere, but if he does who do you want under center next season?

Oregon Sports Minute: QB Justin Herbert Likely to Stay for His Senior Season

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CBS – Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert is becoming a consensus top-overall pick candidate in the 2019 draft, but multiple league sources indicated it is far more likely that the junior actually remains in school for another year.

Teams have begun falling in love with the strapping prospect – a 6-foot-6, athletic, former multi-sport star who is evolving into a pure passer – and his prospects continue to rise by the game, but numerous sources said that there is a very strong sentiment from the Oregon program that Herbert will remain in school for 2019. Several scouts from NFL teams who have held informal discussions with friends and contacts on the Oregon staff said they would be very surprised if the quarterback opted to turn pro this spring.

Furthermore, there are strong signals throughout the agent community that Herbert is going to stay in school. Several of the top agencies generally in line to represent such talents are becoming pessimistic about him entering the draft.

I love this if for no other reason than it will punish the New York Giants for being morons and taking a RB at No. 2 overall this year when they desperately needed a QB. Well it looked like they were going to fall ass backwards into another stud QB prospect with the No. 1 overall pick this year, thus causing them to learn nothing. Now, according to reports Justin Herbert is likely to stay for his senior season and the Giants are back to being hosed under center.

Now if Herbert does stay at Oregon, it’s for a number of reasons. I won’t bore you with all the details so here are reasons No. 1 and No. 2.

Herbert is a native of Eugene, Oregon, who absolutely loves the school, badly wants to win there and is very eager to play with his younger brother. Patrick Herbert is a four-star tight end prospect who is committed to going to Oregon in 2019.

Herbert is legitimately born and raised in Eugene, Oregon. How a kid from Eugene turns into one of the best quarterbacks in the entire country and winds up playing at Oregon is incredible. Usually those guys go to Florida and Georgia and Oklahoma. The last great QB the Ducks had was a guy named Marcus Mariota and they had to pluck him from the ends of the Earth aka Hawaii.

Reason No. 2 – apparently his brother is a stud Tight End prospect who has committed to play at Oregon next season. Imagine going out on top leading the school you bled for since you were a kid to its first ever national championship while throwing to your kid brother? Yea this guy ain’t going anywhere.

Maybe the Giants can take another RB this year and build the greatest 4-12 team this league has ever seen.

I don’t know if I’ve blogged about how a guy from Boston became an Oregon Ducks fan, but allow me to elaborate. Aside from 2007 when Matt Ryan was tearing up the NCAA or in the 80s when Doug Flutie was at Chestnut Hill, Boston College has never been a legitimate college football team. And they never will be. The best seasons they’ve had were when they dipped into the post-grad pool to pluck former SEC guys like Tyler Murphy. Wouldn’t you know having actual talent at positions other than OL and MLB lead to an upset win over a national powerhouse like USC in 2014?

So I came to grips with despite the fact that I live a mile from the BC football stadium, they ain’t ever gonna compete for anything bigger than a Meineke Car Care Bowl trophy. Enter Chip Kelly in 2009 who was running his team like I ran my Madden franchise in college. 90+ plays a game, HB screens all day, 5 wide receiver bubble screens, mobile QB, speed, speed, speed. And. The. Jerseys.

For a free agent college football fan I was sold, which explains the bright yellow Mariota jersey hanging in my closet.

This has been the Oregon Sports Minute.