The Boston Red Sox are once again at a crossroads when it comes to their organizational philosophy, which is something fans have heard before. The Sox are seemingly stuck between being the free spending free agency big players of yesteryear and the fiscally responsible, efficient, consistent machine they want to become.
The only problem with trying to find and capitalize on every market inefficiency is the boom or bust nature of doing so. Moneyball was the monster hit it was and something that made the sport cool to a generation of baseball “outsiders” because it took something nobody was investing in and spun it into a game in of itself; an entire team building philosophy for organizations. Except, the Red Sox knew that you couldn’t rely on the idea Moneyball alone or else they’d end up like the Oakland A’s; consistently pretty good but not enough star power to push a team over the finish line. So the Sox supplemented OBP diamonds in the rough like Kevin Youkilis and homegrown studs like Dustin Pedroia with highly paid superstars like Ortiz, Schilling, Damon, Foulke, Beckett and on and on.
Now this isn’t to say the team needs to abandon any notion of being creative while opting instead to sign every top tier free agent and trade away every Baseball America darling to essentially buy a World Series. Nor does the team need to go the complete opposite way and try to compete with a model that the Tampa Bay Rays have tried (and failed) to win with for decades.
But there has to be a balance.
The Sox have had Ben Cherington, Dave Dombrowski, and Chaim Bloom all in charge of building this team at various points over the past eight years. Three GMs/Head of Baseball Ops/Chief Baseball Officer or whatever you want to call it these days in eight years is going to make it difficult to find a consistent organizational philosophy and stick to it. Dombrowski and Bloom in particular could not be more antithetical from each other in terms of philosophy.
This goes all the way back to 2014 when the Sox opted to trade Jon Lester to the A’s when they realized they weren’t going to be able to resign him after failed negotiations. Lester then signed with the Cubs in December of 2014 for more than double what the Sox had initially offered him.
The Red Sox had seemingly adopted an organizational philosophy that they don’t sign players on the wrong side of 30 to mega contracts because the value just isn’t there. Not something I agreed with, but sure at least there’s a plan in place. (This is a notion that John Henry has bristled at as an overreaction from fans to comments he made in a 2014 Bloomberg Business article.)
In 2015, the Sox finished in last place, 15 games out of first with only one starter on the staff making 30+ starts and that was Wade Miley.
Just one year after Lester joined the Cubs, the Red Sox reversed course and signed 30-year-old David Price to a 7-year $217 million contract, which at the time was the highest average annual salary for a pitcher ever.
Now obviously the Price contract had its ups and downs as did the 4-year $67.5 deal for Nathan Eovaldi, as has the 5-year $145 extension for Chris Sale. There are pros and cons to building entirely through the farm system and market inefficiencies just like there are pros and cons (albeit more costly cons) of prioritizing top tier free agents.
With Xander Bogaerts skipping town for warmer weather and an astronomical $280 million payday in San Diego, the attention now turns to the impending free agency of another homegrown star in Rafael Devers. As Bloom was recently quoted on Rob Bradford’s podcast, the Sox are willing to resign Devers “if there’s something within reason, or even a little outside of reason.” As history has shown, reasonable may not be enough to get it done with a player of Devers’ caliber. After seeing what Bogaerts got paid, the Sox may have already soured on the idea of spending the dollars that a Devers deal will command, but the market is the market.
As Bill Belichick once famously said, “It’s just our job to do business as business is being done.”
It’s time for the Red Sox to truly decide what they want to be. Pleasing everybody simply isn’t possible, but frequently altering course every few years is a sure-fire way to anger everyone. So whichever direction it decides to go, the team needs to swallow hard and rip the band-aid off, commit to a course of action, burn the boats. Pick whichever figure of speech you prefer.
Whether we’re watching Rafael Devers playing in Petco Park or Fenway Park in 2024 will be the clear anemometer for the Boston Red Sox.
The Red Sox are fresh off of their fifth last place finish in the past 11 seasons. That is absolutely insane for a team with the resources it has and the scrutiny the Sox face year in and year out. Obviously you can’t win the World Series every year and nobody expects that, but you better believe Red Sox fans expect a playoff team every year. Or at the very least a team that is pushing for a playoff spot and not something half the city tuned out in August.
As the baseball season continues for the more fortunate and we all turn our attention to the Bruins and Celtics, I figured what better time to breakdown the 5 Best and 5 Worst parts of this disastrous season? I won’t lie, it was significantly easier (and faster) to make the 5 Worst List than the 5 Best, but as much of a flaming dumpster this season turned into let’s not lose sight of every positive development.
5 Best Parts of the 2022 Red Sox Season
1.) The Youth Movement Has Officially Arrived
The Sox had what some called the worst farm system in all of baseball just a few years ago to being ranked No. 11 in MLB this season. Great, hooray, lets throw a party, I know I know, BUT that tree is starting to bear fruit at the major league level. It’s still early as all three of these guys made their debut in 2022, but Brayan Bello, Triston Casas and to a lesser extent Kutter Crawford showed they are ready to produce at the big league level. Beyond that, there were legitimate showcases of some seriously elite budding talent at Fenway this season.
Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds say that Brayan Bello’s changeup reminds them of Pedro Martínez.
Then you add in Triston Casas, who has shown *prodigious* power and plate discipline along with a really calming influence over at first base defensively. Now we’re cooking with gas.
Top it off with young guys like Tanner Houck (3.15 ERA) and Kutter Crawford (led the rotation in SO/9) and the Red Sox suddenly have some legitimate young talent on their roster, which is something they’ve struggled to restock in recent years.
2.) This Team Isn’t *Too* Far Off
This isn’t a roster that is so bad that it requires a complete tear down. In fact the Red Sox aren’t all that far off from returning to serious contention. Despite their complete cratering after the All-Star break, they were one of the top 3 teams in the AL in the first half so with a couple of key moves in free agency (read: open the damn wallet) and some (any) actual good fortune with injuries, this team could be right back in the mix next year. There will ample opportunity to shore up the rotation this offseason with free agents including guys like Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodón, Just Verlander, Chris Bassitt, and that’s before we mention their own guy Nathan Eovaldi.
As for the lineup, after getting Kike Hernandez back from injury, Casas getting called up, and when Trevor Story is actually healthy, this is still one of the better lineups in baseball when at full Megazord power. Xander Bogaerts and Raffy Devers showcased what the heart of the Red Sox order can look like for the next 5 years IF the team is smart and extends both players.
Obviously when I say “this team isn’t too far off” it implies that only remains the case if they stop pretending to be the Tampa Bay Rays and crack open John Henry’s piggy back, but there is a clear path back to contention.
3.) Garrett Whitlock is the Real Deal
Arguably the biggest pro of the 2022 season was Garrett Whitlock proved his success last year wasn’t just a flash in the pan. However, the Sox did exactly what I didn’t want them to do with Whitlock: jerk him back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation. Shockingly, Whitlock’s body didn’t hold up and he hit the IL multiple times before ending his season early to undergo hip surgery. By all reports it doesn’t seem like a major surgery so he should be fine for next season, but the Sox *have* to pick a role for Whitlock and stick to it. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I want him in the rotation. I understand the game has changed and there is less of an emphasis on starters, less pitchers going through a lineup three or more times, and a greater value placed on middle relievers. But that doesn’t change the fact that a top of the line starter is going to give you 200 innings vs maybe half that for a workhorse reliever. Whitlock is incredibly valuable out of the bullpen because he is lights out, but that value was magnified because the Sox just didn’t have many other reliable relievers to turn to this year. Shore up the bullpen with actual, legitimate additions, set Whitlock up to be a top of the rotation starter and lets go.
4.) Michael Wacha Was a Revelation
If you recall, I was not all that optimistic about Wacha coming to Boston because it had been a while since he was an effective MLB starting pitcher. But, I am not afraid to admit when I am wrong and when healthy (my god I am saying that a lot today), Michael Wacha was arguably the best starter on the team. Wacha finished the season at 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA in 127.1 IP and 104 strikeouts. Having signed a one-year contract for this season, the Sox need to bring this guy back.
Simply put, this is the Chaim Bloom experience. Bloom’s roster management is reminiscent of me walking into Marhsall’s. Sometimes I find really solid workout clothes that are comfortable, affordable, and even name brand. Sometimes I buy a pair of jeans for $12 dollars that rip right down the middle after a couple of times wearing them, ya know because they’re $12 jeans. Once in a while I get a real gem, like the time I found a rare throwback red Patriots Tom Brady jersey for just $20. So there are days I find absolute gold for $20, other times I walk out with an absolute piece of shit that I know I’m probably never going to wear more than once. But like Chaim Bloom, I’m never going to stop shopping at Marshall’s. In case this was too dense to read through, Michael Wacha is the red Brady jersey and the $12 jeans are the $10 million James Paxton contract (0 IP in 2022).
5.) Uhh..
5 Worst Parts of the 2022 Red Sox Season
1.) Finished in Last Place, Yet Again
The Boston #RedSox finished last just once from 1933-2011.
The Sox (72-81) now are on verge of finishing last for the 5th time in 11 years.
It certainly has been feast or famine for Sox during this stretch: 4 first place finishes. 2 World Series titles. 5 last-place finishes.
As I mentioned earlier in this blog, this is the fifth time the Red Sox have finished in the basement in the last 11 seasons. If the two World Series titles sprinkled in over that same period have caused people to overlook the low times, then the tweet above should hit you like a sledgehammer. The wild fluctuation of this franchise from top of the mountain to dumpster fire year after year would be impressive if it weren’t so maddening. For a team with a $200M+ payroll it’s just not acceptable to finish in last place. In fairness the division is much improved from the days when it was a two team race between the Sox and the Yankees back in the day, but the Sox finished a whopping 21 games out of first place.
2.) Absolute Abysmal Record vs AL East
This division has grown into one of the toughest in all of baseball, but the Sox got absolutely walloped by their division rivals this year, going 26-50 vs the AL East. If you can’t keep pace with your peers, take advantage of a distinct home field advantage at Fenway, AND finish behind the perpetually rebuilding Orioles, then something is seriously wrong.
3.) Chris Sale Injured Yet Again
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, just wait until Chris Sale is back, Chris Sale will be better than any trade deadline deal, the Chris Sale injury isn’t considered significant etc. etc. I love Chris Sale so this isn’t Sale Slander, but at 33-years-old and after six(!) years in Boston, he is what he is at this point in his career. Coming back from another offseason injury (broken rib, Tommy John, take your pick) Sale pitched only 5.2 innings this year after a comebacker broke his pinky in just his second start back. I actually felt bad for Sale after this one because it’s just one thing after the next for a guy who clearly relishes pitching in Boston and just wants to be on the mound. With that being said, anything the team gets from Sale here on out has to be considered gravy; not something the team can rely on. In 2021 Sale pitched just 42.2 innings, 0 IP in 2020, 147.1 Ip in 2019, 158 IP in 2018, and 214.1 IP in 2017.
It doesn’t take an economics degree to see the trend line there.
So while I love Sale, I am not banking on him to be the savior of this rotation anymore. It’s negligent to do so at this point. The Sox need to act as if he’s not coming back and build a pitching staff that if Sale does come back healthy then the team will have a good problem finding him some innings. We’ve seen he can still be a highly effective pitcher, he just isn’t someone the team can bank on for volume.
And it wasn’t just Sale either, injuries absolutely killed this team with a ton of games missed by him, Kike Hernandez, Trevor Story, Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Whitlock and others. If this team can get a little bit of luck with health next season then it’ll make a world of difference.
4.) Somehow STILL Finished Over the Luxury Tax
This is probably the most inexcusable part of the entire last place finish. If you want to clear up dead money and acquire some lottery ticket prospects in the meantime, fine. If your owner ties your hands because of luxury tax penalties so you can’t make any big money moves until the books are in order, then fine. But all of those moves are only tolerated by fans because of the promise that it’s building to something in the near future. To finish in last place, trade away key players, let key free agents walk, and STILL finish over the luxury tax that is the definition of insanity. Moves like eating JBJ’s salary just to scoop up a couple of prospects did not help, made only worse by Bradley playing so poorly that the team ultimately released him. Compare that to the guy we traded away for him in Hunter Renfroe having a career year (28 HR and counting) for a fraction of the price. Oof.
5.) Chaim Bloom’s Plan
In fairness, Bloom does seem to be caught between a rock and a hard place. He now runs a BIG market team and works for an owner who loves to be frugal and efficient and smarter than everyone else, yet is *notorious* for flip flopping on organizational philosophies. Remember the whole mantra about how the Red Sox don’t commit big deals to pitchers over 30? That quote got raked over the coals when the Sox finished in last place their first year without 30+ year old Jon Lester (who flourished for Theo Epstein’s Cubs), and the team immediately signed 30-year-old David Price to a 7-year $217M contract. So I get it that his boss may be moving the goal posts on him a bit, but we are now three years into the Chaim Bloom experience.
It is truly put up or shut up time for Chaim Bloom because I do not want to hear any more talk about his five year plan.
It’s been an up and down tenure for the new face of the Red Sox as the team was surprisingly successful last year reaching the ALCS with a team nobody expected a deep run from. Then came the regrettable Hunter Renfroe trade, the bad gambles on injured free agents, playing stiffs at first base for two years while not even bothering to try and resign Kyle Schwarber (46 HRs for the Phillies and headed for the World Series), the near mutiny in the clubhouse when they didn’t bring in any reinforcements this year, dumping Christian Vazquez, attaching top prospect Jay Groome instead of eating salary in the Eric Hosmer deal, the lowball offer to Xander Bogaerts followed by an entire season of drama and I can go on and on and on.
October 28th marks three years since the Red Sox hired Bloom so its time for the drastic organizational shift away from the Dave Dombrowski (also World Series bound with the Phillies) philosophy to start showing dividends.
Bonus No. 6) Dennis Eckersley Retiring
I could write 10,000 words about Eck and what an excellent broadcaster he is, but for now I’ll just say what a bummer it is to see him go. It was a surprising announcement from Eck mid-season that this year would be his last as he wants to move back to Cali to be closer to his grandkids and for that I can’t fault him. However, that doesn’t make it any less sad to see him go, which I think hit harder for Sox fans as they’ve now seen Eck, the late great Jerry Remy, and Don Orsillo leave the NESN booth in just the last few years. The Red Sox broadcast has a steep, uphill battle to find a crew that comes even close to the entertainment, energy, and chemistry that those three guys displayed on a nightly basis over the years with whoever was beside them. We’ll miss ya Eck, don’t be a stranger.
After another cold, dark, and suspiciously long winter, this afternoon we get The Masters, game day dogs on the grill, and most importantly, Red Sox Opening Day. I wasn’t sure we’d get here after an extensive lockout, constant news of failed negotiations between the players and the owners, and rainouts delaying games further, but we made it guys. It’s baseball season.
After finishing the season 92-70 last year and making a surprise run to the ALCS expectations are high for this Red Sox team. With one of the best lineups in the game expectations should be high as the Sox look to build on last year’s deep postseason run. This season already has a melancholy vibe to it though because there could be some big changes after the season with JD Martinez, Kike Hernandez, and potentially Xander Bogaerts all hitting free agency. The farm system is back in the Top 10 and the Sox finally opened their wallets with the Trevor Story signing so the franchise is in a good position for the long haul, but it’s definitely win now time down on Jersey Street.
The Duct Tape Rotation
The 2022 pitching staff is a mixed bag that should get better when if everyone can get healthy at the same time, but as it currently sits the rotation has some question marks. The staff includes one legit starter in Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 in 2021) but he comes with a long history of injuries, one potential hidden gem in Nick Pivetta (9-8, 4.53) who’s looking to build off an eye opening postseason run (2.63 ERA, 14 K’s in 13.2 IP), a 25-year-old in Tanner Houck (1-5, 3.52) that the Sox kept the training wheels on a bit last year but shows a ton of potential, and then two old and possibly washed up vets in Michael Wacha, yes that Wacha from the 2013 World Series, (5.05, 6.62, 4.76 ERAs the last 3 seasons) and Rich Hill (7-8, 3.86) at 42-years-young is back in Boston to see how long he can survive throwing 88 mph fastballs. Gone is rotation mainstay Eduardo Rodriguez after the Red Sox deemed him expendable and to be honest E-Rod seemed like he was gone the minute Alex Cora publicly scolded him for celebrating too hard in the middle of an ALCS game. A rare miss for Cora.
Eduardo Rodriguez got an earful from Alex Cora after mocking Carlos Correa’s celebration. 😳
If it sounds like I’m missing someone, you’re right, I haven’t mentioned Chris Sale who somehow cracked a rib last month throwing a baseball. So I hate to pin my hopes on Chris Sale because while has the stuff to be the best pitcher in the game, he he has struggled mightily to stay healthy the last few years. I still blame the Sox for delaying Sale’s March 2020 Tommy John surgery by several months for no particular reason, which ended up costing Sale nearly two full years. After recently being placed on the 60 day IL, Sale is projected to return the first week of June so I’m cautiously optimistic, but when healthy the lefty has the stuff to carry the Sox down the stretch and into the playoffs.
Welcome to Boston, Trevor Story
I love this signing IF Story is indeed slated to be the second baseman of the future. I don’t however love the optics of the Red Sox signing a career shortstop the same exact year that their own franchise shortstop can opt out of his contract and become a free agent. At best it feels like hedging, at worst it feels like the Sox are preemptively moving on from their team’s de facto leader, homegrown All-Star, and 2x World Series champion.
Garrett Whitlock Will Be Key
For those who don’t know, the Red Sox essentially got Garrett Whitlock off the scrap heap, selecting him in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft off the Yankees roster. Coming off Tommy John surgery, Whitlock was nothing less than a revelation for the Sox last year going 8-4 with a 1.96 ERA and racking up 81 strikeouts in 73.1 IP. Like a child of divorce, Whitlock seems to be stuck between what his dad (Alex Cora) and his mom (Chaim Bloom) want him to be as he gets yo-yo’d back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen. It has a striking similarity to the Jonathan Papelbon situation way back in 2006 when Paps came into the league as a starter before getting shifted to the pen for the postseason and ultimately taking the closer reigns from Keith Foulke. Now, I think Whitlock should be a starter because he has all the tools and multiple legit pitches to become a top of the rotation guy. However, baseball as a whole has really devalued top tier starters as analytics have taken over the game and managers routinely pull starters after a couple of times through the batting order. “Openers” used to be something we all laughed at the Rays for sending out relievers to pitch a few innings to start a game instead of a traditional starter. Now you see it all the time. The workhorse ace of a pitching staff is an endangered species. There were only THREE players with more than 200 innings pitched last year in all of baseball!
So perhaps Whitlock has a higher objective value coming out of the pen as the team’s Rover, but I still would rather seem him as a starter. Then again, Papelbon went on to become the greatest closer in team history so what do I know. Let’s not forget that the team did jerk around guys like Daniel Bard who eventually fell apart and the Yankees did the same thing with Joba Chamberlain. I once saw Chamberlain start a game at Fenway where he struck out 11 guys before the Yankees move him back to the pen. Then again he was a dominant reliever and was the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera before also falling apart. So I guess my main point is let’s just make a decision and stick with it rather than hem and haw to the point that the team screws up another young pitcher.
Rafael Devers Poised for Another MVP Season
Contract extension talks have stalled between the Sox and Bogaerts and Devers so that’s been a bit of a downer heading into the season. Devers just turned 25 in October and posted a season of 38 HR, 113 RBI while hitting .279/.352/.538 last year. He led the Red Sox in HR, RBI, Runs, Hits, Total Bases, Slugging and OPS en route to his first All-Star selection and finishing 11th in MVP voting. No player has more extra base hits than Rafael Devers over the last three seasons. Get. The. Deal. Done.
“We are talking cheapies here. The big boys came through.” – Eck
Matt Barnes was an All-Star last season lest anyone forget after his second half ERA of 6.48 and ya know being left off the ALCS roster. It didn’t help that Barnes seemingly fell apart right around the time the Spider Tack story broke and was suddenly explicitly banned. Maybe it was just a mental thing and he needed a full winter away from the ballpark to reset, but I’m not exactly penciling Barnes in for 40 saves this year. Whitlock could step in and handle the role, but again with baseball overindexing in middle relief guys, the Sox may not want to pigeonhole Whitlock to 1-inning outings. Cora has gone out of his way to not name a closer, which is fine, but I don’t love a revolving door at the end of games.
“They don’t want to call it closer by committee so they’re not gonna use that term is because they know theres a negative connotation. The reason Cora hasn’t named a closer is because they’re not going to use one.” – Tony Mazz on 98.5
It seems like the Sox are just throwing arms against the wall to see what sticks and that could be a problem, but then again relievers are notoriously fickle. So the team will need to define some roles in the pen, but expect the Sox to be active in the reliever market if Barnes and co. don’t bounce back.
This is a Flawed But Dangerous Team
Vegas has the over/under set for the 2022 Red Sox at 85.5 after winning 92 last year. With a loaded lineup that will mash its way to a ton of wins on its own and a potentially sneaky good bullpen, the Sox should be a lock to hit the over. The rotation could be a disaster if there are any more injuries, but with Sale due back in June they should be good enough at the front end. The only thing that could hinder them is how the AL East has seemingly become the best division in baseball. Vegas has the Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays all projected to win more games than the Sox this season, which Boston is intimately aware of after all-time classic playoff battles against the Yankees and Rays just last fall. With all that being said, I like my chances with a lineup featuring Kike Hernandez, Rafael Devers, Xander Boagaerts, JD Martinez, Alex Verdugo, Trevor Story, and even Bobby Dalbec if he keeps up his second half surge from last season. I think this team will definitely need to add an outfield bat if they’re going to reach the World Series because I love former ALCS MVP Jackie Bradley’s defense, but the man did hit .163 in his lone season with the Brewers last year. Maybe that bat off the bench comes in the form of top prospect Triston Casas, but even then, the kid plays first base. So Chaim will likely need to find an OF bat at the deadline in the same vein as Steve Pearce if the Sox are to go the distance.
Media predictions are all over the place too so nobody knows what to expect from this team. The Ringer has the Sox as the 12th ranked team in baseball behind the Jays, Rays and Yankees, Felger has the Sox winning 95 games, and Chris Gasper has called the upcoming season a bridge year. Then again media predictions are just that, fugazi attempts at defining a team before the first pitch of Opening Day. A lot of people picked the Sox to finish a distant 4th in the division last year, but the team clicked and ended up winning 92 games en route to the ALCS.
With the addition of a healthy Chris Sale I have this team winning 95 games this year, which should be enough to get them into the new 12-team playoff format. Is this a World Series winning team? I’m not sold on that without some additions, but this should be a team that is threatening for the pennant.
Just like that the Red Sox fall to 0-3 and are already chasing a losing record less than a week into the 2021 season.
Nathan Eovaldi and Tanner Houck looked great in the Red Sox first two games of the season, which was super encouraging to see. Eovaldi struck out 4 in 5.1 innings giving up just 1 run and only got pulled because of the analytics (rather than his performance) and the fact that you don’t want your injury prone 1A starter throwing 120 pitches on Opening Day. Houck was also dynamite as he struck out 8 in 5 innings and surrendered just 2 earned runs. Obviously Eovaldi is an injury waiting to happen and Houck has thrown 22 innings in his entire career so the optimism here is fragile. Oh and in the last game of the opening series Garrett Richards did exactly what we all knew he would do and got shelled giving up 6 earned runs in just 2 innings.
I’m not about to freak out but getting off to a fast start is more important than you think. Just about every time the Sox have had a losing record in April over the past decade they’ve missed the playoffs. Do you realized that despite their massive achievements (two World Series titles since 2013) the Red Sox have missed the playoffs 7 out of the last 11 seasons?? This is no time to start slow because the Sox have shown they cannot dig themselves out down the stretch.
Now there is reason for some optimism here. If Eovaldi (injury prone) and Houck (young and unproven) can be a solid No. 2 and No. 3 and if Eduardo Rodriguez can come back and be the ace the Red Sox expect him to be, then the team’s pitching staff could be…I’m gonna say it…pretty good. At least in the sense that you only need 3 starters to get through a playoff series. Now, I say ace with a small “A” until E-Rod shows he can return to and improve upon his 2019 form (19-6, 3.81 ERA) after a year plus missed due to Covid and now dead arm etc.
That’s before you even start to think about Chris Sale coming back from Tommy John. The team has been very tight lipped about the time table for his return, but mid-late summer would make sense based on when he got the surgery. I’m not pinning my hopes on another guy coming off Tommy John, but if the Sox are in contention by late summer then the return of Sale could be a huge shot in the arm for this team.
The biggest disappointment of this young season though has without a doubt been the offense. Say what you will about the absolute disaster of historic proportions the 2020 Red Sox were, but they still finished 2nd in Hits, 5th in Total Bases, 3rd in batting average, and 8th in Slugging Percentage in all of baseball last season. So we know if nothing else this team can hit. So to get swept by the Orioles with little to no production from the lineup was ugly. Sure it was the first series of the year with temperatures just above freezing at times, but to score just 5 runs in 3 games against the Orioles and the corpse of Matt Harvey is concerning.
The Sox have no time to dwell as they’re right back at it tonight against the defending AL champs, Tampa Bay. With Nick Pivetta and Martin Perez starting the first two games of the series though the Sox will need to finally get the offense going if they want to avoid really falling into an early season hole.
The MLB trade deadline is today at 4 pm and the last place Red Sox are in full blown sell mode. I wrote last week about how this team doesn’t need to completely blow it up and trade cornerstones like Xander Boagerts, but it’s hard to predict what the team will do since it’s Chaim Bloom’s first deadline as the guy in charge. Lets take a look at what they’ve already done, what could be in the works, and what Sox fans might actually have to look forward to.
Brandon Workman and Heath HembreeTraded to the Phillies
Crowned the Red Sox closer heading into the season, the team just never really needed Workman because they were so bad there were rarely many save opportunities. Usually the team was getting blown out long before the final frame so Workman only had seven appearances before getting dealt. Both players were in contract years so the deal makes sense for a basement team. In return the Red Sox received 27-year-old RHP Nick Pivetta and 23-year-old RHP Connor Seabold.
Pivetta is a 6’5″ 220 pound former 4th round draft pick of the Nationals, who actually traded Pivetta to the Phillies in 2015 for Jonathan Papelbon. Pivetta was a starter for the Phillies and flashed at times with his “front of the rotation potential,” but was pretty up and down before getting relegated to the bullpen so he’s a buy low candidate that the Sox are smart to take the chance on.
Seabold has never pitched higher than AA, but had a 2.25 ERA last season in the Eastern League and was a 3rd round pick for the Phillies in 2017 so this is a solid prospect to get back.
Mitch Moreland Traded to the Padres
Moreland was an excellent role player for the Red Sox over the last 2+ seasons, making his lone All-Star team in 2018 as the Sox battered everyone en route to a World Series title (including a clutch pinch hit 3 run HR in Game 4). He was having an even better season this year hitting .328 with 8 home runs and 21 RBIs in just 22 games. Although he was limited by injuries last year, Moreland was a legit power bat for the Sox hitting 15 home runs in 2018 and then 19 in 2019 even though he had 124 less plate appearances. So its a bummer to see him go, but he was essentially a victim of his own success while the Sox transitioned to a rebuild.
In return for Moreland the Sox received outfielder Jeisson Rosario and infielder Hudson Potts. Potts is a 21-year-old 3B and was actually the 24th overall pick just four years ago so there is a pedigree there. Rosario is a 20-year-old outfielder that hasn’t played above A ball yet so this guy is a ways off from the big leagues. You can read the scouting reports of the two players via MassLive, but keep in mind Potts and Rosario were just the Padre’s No. 17 and No. 28 ranked prospects according to Baseball America.
The Moreland trade did however clear the way for Bobby Dalbec, the Red Sox’ No. 3 ranked prospect according to MLB.com, who hit a dinger in his major league debut.
On MLB Network, @Ken_Rosenthal says the Red Sox are "entertaining anything and everything"… specifically talking about Christian Vazquez and the Mets' interest.
I think this would be a mistake because he is a player on a cheap contract at a premium position with elite defense and pretty good power. Although he is a bit older than I realized at 30-years-old, but he’s an energy guy that I think the Sox would be wise to keep around.
Trade Rumors Around Xander, JD Martinez, Jackie Bradley Jr, Andrew Benintendi, Nathan Eovaldi
I wrote about this the other day and I think Bogaerts should be untouchable, but you never know. The other guys I would listen to offers on, but the hottest Benintendi rumors were focused on a deal with Cleveland for Mike Clevinger, who they just traded to San Diego. So maybe none of these guys get dealt, but we’ll see today.
Joey B also pointed out the Sox are also exploring a potential trade/salary dump of Eovaldi.
Sources: In a money swap deal, Rangers have discussed Odor for Nathan Eovaldi. Could involve Rangers taking on money extra money. Could involve a prospect going to Boston. Could go nowhere.
This is about the only thing for Red Sox fans to be excited about these days. With the 3rd worst record in ALL of baseball and just 2 games better than the Pirates for the worst record, the Sox are in play for potentially the No. 1 overall pick next year. Due to a myriad of reasons the Sox could potentially finish with the worst record and still not get the top pick, which would be the most 2020 thing ever, but it’s fun to daydream about the most likely No. 1 overall pick pitching at Fenway, Vanderbilt flamethrower Kumar Rocker.
Luxury Tax Reset Day
Finally and probably the most exciting thing to come out of this shit season is that by getting through today the Red Sox officially (kinda/sort) have their luxury tax penalties reset. This means the Sox have had to dump Mookie Betts, David Price and endure this disastrous season, but by doing so have climbed out of the hell zone that because of gigantic tax penalties would have kept John Henry from making any big moves for YEARS.
Once the trade deadline passes at 4 p.m., MLB's luxury tax rates will reset for 2021 based on what teams spend in 2020. So: technically the luxury tax rates *don't* reset today, but the *possibility* of rates resetting based on 2020 luxury tax payroll will exist.
Boston.com – Red Sox fans are not at all happy, and the team knows it.
Well before the Red Sox traded away one of the best players in Major League Baseball, fans had begun to tune out, either by turning off NESN or not filling the seats at Fenway Park toward the end of last year’s 84-win, playoff-whiff of a season...Kennedy said last fall that attendance over 79 games at Fenway Park last season was down 0.7 percent, while NESN ratings dropped 23 percent.
The day after the Betts trade, Kennedy said overall ticket sales were behind last year’s pace by more than 15 percent, and that the renewal rate of season-ticket holders was down from the usual percentage in the high 80s to the low 80s.
Ticket sales are down. Season ticket renewals are down. Ratings were *significantly* down already last year. THEN the Red Sox traded Mookie Betts and David Price. I wrote extensively about the trade and how I’m not losing any sleep over it, but Betts was a fan favorite and arguably the best player in the game so a little fan backlash was to be expected. Yet, Red Sox ownership somehow still looked wildly unprepared for the heat. John Henry, Tom Werner, and Sam Kennedy had their annual picnic table presser down in Fort Myers this morning and it went about as well as a Jeb Bush pep rally.
Sam Kennedy: “To the extent that fans haven’t been to Fenway, please come out and support this team.”
Henry then released a statement on the team’s twitter account that compared trading a former MVP to the time they traded a burnt out, broken down player in Nomar. Not exactly the same, John.
“I know many of you – particularly our youngest fans – are angry or disbelieving or sad about it. I know it’s difficult and disappointing. Some of you no doubt felt the same way when we traded Nomar in 2004.”
I am amazed at how poorly the Red Sox handle the media year after year. Few organizations in America would benefit as much as the Red Sox from a complete PR overhaul. Henry was not only glib to the reception of the Mookie trade, but he openly scoffed at legitimate criticisms.
Kennedy said nobody has asked for a refund – “I think you underestimate our fans,” said Henry at the suggestion – and that the team will not roll back the ticket price increase, another idea that amused Henry.
“As a result of making trades?” he asked.
Red Sox fans don’t complain about paying one of the highest ticket prices in the league, but thats only because they expect the team to compete and spend, every year. It may not be fair to expect the Sox to have the top payroll in the league every year, but it is fair for fans to be upset when the team raises prices (again) and subsequently dumps two of their best players to shed payroll.
Henry can continue to spin tall tales every time he denies this trade was a salary dump, but thats exactly what this was. As I said in my blog about the trade last week, I am an adult and I understand there are budgets in business so while fans may not be happy about it, I get it. But when Henry continues to outright deny it after saying it *himself* just a few months ago is a bad look for the team.
Both Henry and Kennedy wanted to alter, by almost 180 degrees, the prevailing and understandable perception that the Betts trade was made for purely financial reasons. It’s a line of reasoning that was launched last September by Henry himself when he told reporters “This year we need to be under the [competitive balance tax].”
Henry downplayed the notion that financial tailwinds steered the trade.
“…It’s surprising that anyone would think we would outspend every other team in baseball every single year. To me, that’s a little surprising…it has nothing to do with CBT.”
To be fair, this could still be a very good Red Sox team heading into the 2020 season. With young studs like Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Eduardo Rodriguez and veterans like JD Martinez and Chris Sale (if healthy) – it would not shock me to see this team in the mix for a playoff spot. Boston fans aren’t stupid though. This team could be pretty good, but this trade was still a way to shed payroll while recouping assets. Both can be true.
Henry and co. tried to stump on their track record of spending, which includes leading the league the last two years, and never being outside of the Top 5 in terms of payroll since they took over.
Guys, thats what you’re supposed to do.
The Red Sox and Fenway Sports Group as a whole are one of the most valuable franchises on the entire planet. You don’t get credit for acting accordingly.
Not to mention, A LOT of that spending that Henry and Kennedy are fond of pointing to is littered with horrific contracts that nearly sunk the team for years at a time. Carl Crawford, Pablo Sandoval, Rusney Castillo, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi etc. etc.
So we are now just 38 days away from Opening Day, but it seems like the noise surrounding the team is only rising. This is before we even get into Alex Verdugo’s stress fracture in his back and the troubling allegations against him, injuries to Sale and Eovaldi, the term “Opener” being thrown around a bit too much for my liking, and the fact this team still doesn’t have a real closer.
It seems like 2020 could be quite the rocky ride for the Red Sox as they prepare to cross what ownership doesn’t want to admit this is; a bridge year.
Dombrowski: “We are going to add Nathan Eovaldi. For some reason, people seem to, not, like, grasp on to that. He’s a big addition for us coming and we feel he’ll be ready to go within about a week to join us on a full-time basis out there.”
So Dave Dombrowski threw a temper tantrum over the weekend because nobody lauded his ingenious “additions” to the bullpen. I mean, by all accounts, he’s not wrong. Nathan Eovaldi can be a very effective reliever when healthy. We saw him do just that in the playoffs last year so why aren’t people falling all over themselves to pat Dombrowski on the back?
Oh yea, thats right because this isn’t an addition you disingenuous dummy. This is a guy the Sox paid big bucks to anchor their rotation down who was IMMEDIATELY injured and has missed all but 4 games this season. So forgive me if I’m not super excited for an injured starter coming back being hailed as the savior of the bullpen.
For Dombrowski to get all pissy because “people seem to, not, like grasp” this is hilarious. This is exactly what I said would happen last year after the Sox won the World Series too. I know this will come off as peak whiny Boston fan, but that doesn’t mean its not true. Last year Dombrowksi punted on making real additions to the bullpen and pulled Nathan Eovaldi and Ryan Brasier out of his ass while David Price pitched out of the pen, and Joe Kelly went on an all-time postseason run.
All that did was embolden Dombrowski to again make no real additions to the bullpen, let Joe Kelly go to the Dodgers, AND let their closer walk all in one offseason. “Hey I did it last year, why can’t I patch this thing together on the fly again?” Because thats not how baseball usually works. Thats why they call it lightning in a bottle.
If Nathan Eovaldi goes on to record 20 saves in the second half of the season then please disregard this blog.
NESN – The Boston Red Sox spent an off-day trying to recover from a transatlantic flight and two losses to the New York Yankees. The bullpen again became a concern as the Yankees scored 22 runs in 12 2/3 innings of work by Red Sox relievers over the weekend. And now the team has decided to make a move to shore up that bullpen. Multiple sources have told NESN’s Tom Caron that Nathan Eovaldi will serve as the closer for the Red Sox when he returns from the injured list. They also told Caron that he will serve as a traditional closer, and not as part of a bullpen-by-committee. Last postseason Eovaldi made four appearances out of the bullpen, tossing 9 1/3 innings and giving up just one run — the Max Muncy home run in the 18th inning of Game 3 of the World Series after Eovaldi set a series record throwing 97 pitches in relief. In addition to helping the bullpen, the Red Sox believe bringing Eovaldi back as a reliever will get him back on the roster sooner, meaning they won’t have to wait for him to get stretched out in multiple starts over a long rehab stint.
We all saw what Nathan Eovaldi can do out of the bullpen in the playoffs last year, but that was out of necessity. Coming into this year the Red Sox resigned Eovaldi to a 4-year $67.5M contract to be a STARTER and now the Sox will once again turn to Nasty Nate to save the pen. I think we all had a feeling the Sox would mess around with this because with how good Eovaldi was in the postseason, how could you not think about him back in the pen?
This makes sense when you’re paying Eovaldi like a mid-season acquisition. When you’re paying him like a top starter though, and at the same time completely cheaping out on adding any bullpen help, then it starts to look like a piss poor management of resources.
Sweet Lou may have a stroke covering this year’s Sox team, but he seems to be in the same boat as me here.
He OK’d $240 million to be spent on his team. He hired someone to find the best way to allocate it. Dombo gave Eovaldi $17 to take over for Porcello. Ignored the bullpen and now what? Eovaldi goes to the bullpen. Could have got 2 relievers for the price he’s paying his closer. https://t.co/jy3P3vFiB8
Its not like anyone could have predicted this right?? This is why I was ecstatic the Sox won the World Series yet also a bit annoyed at how they got there because it only emboldened Dave Dombrowski. He punted on fixing the bullpen all last season and then fell ass backwards into a journeyman starter with a bum elbow that turned into a super reliever, along with Price, and Porcello acting as roamers. Winning the title last year had Dombrowski feeling himself a bit too much because hey we did it last year so we’ll figure it out again on the fly this year.
Thats how $240 Million teams end up 11 games out of first place in July.
All last week I was thinking about writing an article about how bad this Red Sox team has been playing so far. I kept putting it off because most of my attention is on the Celtics and Bruins, and honestly, it’s still April. No need to panic just yet, right? A 6-13 start, a run differential of -42 (barf), and the second worst pitching staff in all of baseball. In the words of Dennis Eckersley, YUCK! Going into the weekend, they were taking on a Tampa team that was an AL East leading 14-5 and had allowed the second least amount of runs in baseball. Well, just when you think the season can’t get any worse, they go and do something like this……AND TOTALLY REDEEM THEMSELVES.
Now I know the Sox still have a long way to go, but a road sweep of the best team in the division goes a long way this early in this season. It’s great for clubhouse morale, especially considering how awful this pitching staff has been so far. Statistically, only the Orioles pitching staff is worse, allowing 149 runs to our 131. Aside from David Price, all of our starters have ERA’s over 6. Sale and Porcello have both allowed more runs than strikeouts and have ERA’s at 8.5! That’s atrocious coming from a former Cy Young winner and a guy who just signed a $145 million extension. Our bullpen hasn’t been much better, but at least a few guys in the pen have been reliable enough.
Email Red@The300s.com to buy your YUCK sticker!
Then this weekend happened. Not that they were dominant by any means, but they did what they needed to do to eke out three wins against a tough team. All three wins came together late in the game, when good teams find ways to win. First on Friday, Mookie and Big Mitch went back to back in the eighth to put the team ahead for good. Then on Saturday, Benintendi hits a grand slam and a 9th inning sac fly to put the team up one, and Vazquez finishes off the Rays with this walk off pick off, resulting in our first series win of the season. Then the icing on the cake came on Sunday after the Celtics completed their sweep of the Pacers and the Bruins held off the Leafs to force game 7. To make for an amazing Boston Easter, the Sox won with a Vazquez sac fly in the top of the 11th, while Brasier shut the door for the third time in three nights. Man, what a day.
Unfortunately, it wasn’t all good news this weekend. Nathan Eovaldi was placed on the 10-day IL, with all signs pointing to a much longer stint on the injured list. You can read more about it here, but the short of it is Nathan has loose bodies in his throwing elbow that are more than likely going to need to be removed with arthroscopic surgery. The recovery period on this would be about 6 weeks, with range of motion coming back in about 2 weeks. This is the same surgery he had last spring, when he was out the first two months of the season. Bobby Poyner has been called up in his place.
Dallas Keuchel to the Red Sox rumors are heating up.
What do I think the Sox should do to address their pitching staff? Easy. Sign Dallas Keuchel. He’s said he’ll sign a one-year deal where he can compete for about $18 mil a year, or a longer deal for less money. We already have a ridiculous payroll of $236 mil, including 18 million/year we’re still paying that fat panda Pablo Sandoval, so what’s another $18 for another dominant starter? Now it may take Keuchel a month or so before he’s ready to pitch to live hitters, but reports are that he’s been on a throwing schedule where he’s throwing 95-pitch simulated games every 5 days. This way, when Eovaldi comes back, he can be our closer and we can cut it out with this closer-by-committee trash. Not to knock on Brasier, who’s been great so far, but I just can’t see him being an effective closer for the whole season. The guys been in the majors for less than a year, only strikes out 5.5 batters per 9 innings, and looks more like the dudes I used to sell beer to 4 times a week than a professional athlete. Plus, imagine having to face a 101mph Eovaldi fastball in the 9th inning? Fuck that. This could be exactly the signing the Sox need to put them back in the drivers seat.
WEEI – The Red Sox are reportedly nearing a deal with free agent right-hander Nathan Eovaldi on a four-year contract that could be worth nearly $70 million…Eovaldi, 28, was a tremendous find at the trade deadline, going 3-3 with a 3.33 ERA after arriving from Tampa, and then following it up with a dominating postseason that saw him go 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA. He delivered one of the signature performance of the playoffs, even though it ended in defeat, when he tossed six innings of three-hit relief in an 18-inning loss to the Dodgers in Game 3 of the World Series.
Free-agent RHP Nathan Eovaldi in agreement with #RedSox, pending physical, sources tell The Athletic.
While the terms of the deal are still unknown, most of the big baseball writers have been speculating 4 years at $70 million, which is $17.5 per year. It might sound like a lot for a guy who was a midseason pickup that had a really strong second half and an incredible playoff run, but I’m totally on board with this move. The Red Sox needed Nathan Eovaldi for this upcoming season, but more importantly for the next few years.
The Red Sox rotation is stacked, but is also top heavy and comprised of expensive guys in contract years. Chris Sale has had his last 2 seasons start off incredible only to stumble down the stretch due to injuries and is a free agent after this upcoming season. Are the Red Sox prepared to give him a $200 Million contract? I’m not so sure. Rick Porcello is also in a walk year and while he’s had his ups and downs over the years, he will be a 30-year-old free agent with a Cy Young Award under his belt next winter so don’t expect him to come cheap. That leaves the Red Sox with David Price, who has ranged from trainwreck to solid to elite so your guess is as good as mine for what to expect, but Price is signed for the next four years at least. After that the Sox are left with Eduardo Rodriguez, who seems to miss extended time with injuries every year, and a bunch of Triple-A pitchers.
Simply put, the Sox need someone to anchor this staff alongside David Price beyond just next season.
So the Sox needed to make this move. I’m less concerned with Eovaldi’s injury history as I am with projecting future performance. Even though he’s had two Tommy John surgeries, as we’ve said here before; that’s basically a prerequisite to being a great starting pitcher these days. Alex Speier dove a little deeper on that issue:
“The idea that a two-time Tommy John recipient could be seen as something other than an extreme risk illustrates how drastically the landscape has changed over the last decade…the chief risk appears to be whether a pitcher returns to his prior level from a second Tommy John surgery. There is a survival effect. Roughly 20-25 percent of pitchers never make it back from a first or second Tommy John, but those who do appear at no greater risk than other pitchers who hadn’t undergone even a single Tommy John procedure.”
Would I be shocked to see Eovaldi’s performance regress back to the mean next year though? No I would not. But at 4 years this deal is a drop in the bucket for John Henry and the Red Sox. Dave Dombrowski loved what he saw, primarily because Eovaldi saved his bacon and the Boston bullpen en route to a World Series title. Now Dealer Dave likely smells blood and sees a ripe opportunity for the Sox to repeat (and clinch Dombrowski’s spot in the Hall of Fame) so why pinch pennies now? Welcome back to Boston, Nate.
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