Recap: Took yesterday off from doing props for obvious reasons, but on Tuesday, Kyrie’s numbers without Durant were great, while Jokic decided to remind people that his scoring his better than his passing.
First Pick: Sixers -4 spread vs BKN (-112)
Fact #1: Durant (health protocols) is already out and apparently so is Kyrie Irving (personal reasons).
Fact #2: Seth Curry (ankle) is out for the Sixers.
Fact #3: I know this is the third game in four nights for Philly, but they’re rolling and I’m not sure how the Nets keep this within 4 with north of 50 points missing from the starting lineup this evening.
Second Pick: Joe Harris O2.5 made 3pters (+100)
Fact #1: The Sixers are allowing 27.6 PPG to the 2-guard position this season.
Fact #2: Harris has 3+ made 3s in three of his last six contests.
Third Pick: Kyle Anderson O13.5 pts vs CLE (-110)
Fact #1: Yes, I know I missed with him on Tuesday, but today is Thursday (lol).
Fact #2: The Cavs allow an average of 25.3 PPG to the PF position, which is the second-most in the Association.
Fact #3: Anderson has eclipsed 18+ in four of his last six.
Fourth Pick: D’Angelo Russell O22.5 pts vs POR (-110)
Fact #1: The Blazers are allowing a league-high 35.9 PPG to the point guard position — that’s all you need to know.
Recap: The Sixers look great and continue to be a strong 1st quarter spread play. The Bucks scored 125 points and it felt like Giannis scored all of them instead of DiVincenzo. Fox finished 5 points shy of his over and the Kings getting blown out early did us no favors.
First Pick: Kyle Anderson O13.5 pts vs LAK (-118)
Fact #1: Anderson is averaging 18.6 PPG over his last five contests, including 18+ in four of those outings.
Fact #2: In the first game of this series, he totaled 18 on a season-high 19 shots, despite going 1-for-8 from beyond the arc.
Fact #3: The Lakers allow an average of 26 PPG to the small forward position.
Second Pick:Kyrie Irving O27.5 pts vs UTA (-132)
Fact #1: Durant (health and safety protocols) is out tonight, missing his second game of the young season.
Fact #2: There’s an average of 17.5 shots per game up for grabs this evening.
Fact #3: In his first 10 games in BK last season without Durant, Irving averaged 28 PPG and I would expect a similar full-game effort tonight.
That 2nd pick was TLC until I saw he wasn’t starting tonight.
Third Pick: Nikola JokićU24.5pts vs MIN (-120)
Fact #1: Joker is leading the league in assists per game at 12.8, which shows he’s focused more on doing more in the offense than just scoring.
Fact #2: Joker has scored 25+ against the Kings twice this season and is 0-4 at that number against everyone else, including a 19-point triple-double effort in the first game of this 2-game series.
FourthPick: Clippers -2.5 1st quarter spread vs SAS (-118)
Fifth and Sixth Picks: Paul George O3.5 Made 3Pters (-134)and O24.5 points (-110) vs SAS
PG has been ruled out tonight with an ankle injury, so I’m not playing Clippers -3 1dt quarter spread anymore.
Recap: We hope Kevin Durant is okay and his over prop wins will be waiting when he gets back.
First Pick: 7:10 PM Sixers -2.5 1st quarter vs Hornets (-117)
The Logic: This is the third game in four nights for the Hornets. Yes, I know they played Philly on Saturday, but Philly ran them amuck in the first quarter and I’d expect another fast start given how the Sixers are playing right now.
Second Pick: 10:10 PM De’Aaron Fox O22.5 points vs Warriors (-134)
Fact #1: Fox has hit this mark in two of his last three and four and three of four overall.
Fact #2: Now that Chef Curry is back (62 points last night), he’ll be expending a lot of energy on offense to continue showing everyone that he takes the slander personally.
Fact #3: Most importantly, the Warriors are allowing the second-most points per game to the PG position at 31.1.
Third Pick: 8:10 PMDonte DiVincenzo O11.5 points vs Pistons (+100)
Fact #1: The Pistons allow an average of 27.1 points per contest to the 2-guard position this season.
Fact #2: Donte has 12+ points in four of six games this season. Said another way, he has hit this number in games where his team wasn’t involved in a blowout.
Recap: Richaun Holmes made us sweat to get to 9 rebs, but missed a couple of acrobatic layups late in the fourth quarter, so we missed that over by the hook.
First pick: Jaylen Brown O22.5 pts vs DET (-110) – winner
Fact #1: He has totaled 23+ points in four of six games, including 25 on New Year’s Day against these same Pistons.
Fact #2: Detroit allows 25.4 points per game to the 2-guard position, which I would expect Brown to occupy again if Teague comes off the bench rather than starting.
Second pick: Joe Harris O12.5 pts vs WAS (-120)
Fact #1: Harris has 13+ pts in three of his last four
Fact #2: The Wizards give up an average of 26.2 points to the 2-guard position this season
Fact #3: Assuming Russ takes Kyrie, that potential means Harris gets to run Beal around screens all night. We like!
Third pick: Kevin Durant O27.5 pts vs WAS (-120)
Fact #1: Durant has 28+ points four of his five games this season, so I’m going to keep playing this until it doesn’t hit.
Recap: I, like many, thought the Eagles were going to have their will on offense against the Cowboys shaky defense. Late Spoiler: That didn’t happen.
As I said in the title, this slate of games is weird because while seeding and playoff spots are up for grabs, so many notable players are out today:
1/3 Players out Sunday include Tyreek Hill, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Sammy Watkins, Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Joey Bosa, Dalvin Cook, Kenny Golladay, Damien Harris, Frank Gore, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Cole Beasley, DJ Chark, James Robinson, Julio Jones, Devin White, Shaq Barrett.
And Schefter had two more tweets of players out for Sunday!
First Pick: Calvin Ridley O87.5 receiving yards vs TB (-124)
Fact #1: Ridley has four straight games with 100+ receiving yards, including a matchup two weeks ago against the Bucs (14 targets, 10 catches, 163 yards, TD
Fact #2: Ridley is 137 receiving yards behind Stefon Diggs for the receiving title and the Bills will reportedly be doing what’s best for their “team and their players.” So yes, I’m saying there’s a chance…
Fact #3: The Bucs defense has allowed four different receivers to eclipse 88 rec yards over their last five games. In fact, the lowest of those four tallies is 130 yards by Robert Woods.
Second Pick: Kirk Cousins O22.5 completions (-112) vs DET
Fact #1: Cousins has eclipsed 23+ completions in five straight contests
Fact #2: You may look at the first matchup from Week 9 and have some questions about why Cousins only had 13 completions. The reason is Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison combined for 275 yards and 2 scores on 34 carries.
Fact #3: The only real fear is a trilogy of poor defense from the Lions in this one, which is what caused both Ryan Tannehill (21 comps, 273 yds, 3 TD) and Tom Brady (22 comps, 348 yds, 4 TD) to largely sit out the second half of their games.
So based on fact #3, you should also play Kirk Cousins O2.5 pass TDs (+120)
That is what we call a segue “in the biz”
Fact #1: The Lions defense has allowed a whopping 17 pass TDs over the last five weeks (most in NFL) with 0 INT!
Which leads us to the next segue…
Fourth pick is Vikings Team Total O28.5 points (-107)
Fact #1: The Lions have allowed 30+ in five straight contests.
Fifth Pick is Mike Glennon O20.5 completions vs IND (+100)
Fact #1: The Colts have allowed an average of 27.4 completions to QBs over the last five weeks
Fact #2: The only way Mike Glennon doesn’t hit 21 completions is him being benched for Minshew, which better not happen.
Recap: We can only go up from here. Donte DiVincenzo had 11 points at the half and because the Bucks were thrashing the Bulls, he had no reason to take another shot. The Clippers looked like they were on the second end of a back-to-back and the Celtics forgot to bring their scoring prowess from the Memphis game into Detroit. Lastly, Gordon Hayward was well on his way to reaching 19, but they got the doors blown off them and the starters were pulled.
First and second Picks: Richaun Holmes O11.5 Pts (-141) and O8.5 Reb(-106)vs HOU
Fact #1: Holmes got busy in this first half of this 2-game series, posting 22 points and 13 rebounds on Christmas Eve.
Fact #2: Holmes has 20+ points in two straight contests.
Fact #3: Holmes has secured 9+ rebounds in four of five games this season.
Fact #4: The Rockets are 27th in rebounds per game.
With so many tasty matchups on the slate, I felt compelled to sample a lot of the action.
Thursday: 1-2 (-1.17 units)
Season: 5-9 (-4.75 units)
Recap: JaVale McGee was unleashed to the tune of 1-for-9 shooting in the first quarter — that’s all you need to know about how Cavs +2.5 1st quarter went. Darius Garland came through on his point total, while I underestimated how not ready the Thunder are with their current roster.
First Pick: Hawks Team Total O119.5 vs BKN (-117)
Fact #1: The first meeting on Wednesday saw these two teams combine for 286, which went well over the closing O/U of 240.5.
Fact #2: The Hawks have eclipsed 120 points in every game following their season-opening total of 117.
Fact #3: Even with Brooklyn adjustments to the slip screens, the pace of this game should be very Big 12 football-like again.
Second Pick: Kevin Durant O27.5 points vs ATL (-110)
Fact #1: Durant has reached 28+ points three of his four games this season, including 33 against the Hawks on Wednesday.
Third Pick: Celtics -5 1st Half spread vs DET
Fact #1: Boston is 5-0 ATS in the first half this season, while Detroit is 2-2
Fact #2: Although it’s not in-his-prime Blake Griffin, he’s still a solid contributor, but he be out tonight as he continues to go through concussion protocol.
Fourth Pick: Clippers -1.5 1st Half spread vs UTA(-117)
Fact #1: The Clippers are 4-1 ATS in the first half this season compared to the Jazz who are 2-2
Fact #2: The lone loss ATS in the first half was that drubbing at the hands of the Mavs when Kawhi didn’t play
Fact #3: The Jazz played last night — granted at home — while the Clippers were resting in Utah. If PG13 and The Claw are playing, the Clippers should wear them down early.
Fifth Pick: Gordon Hayward O.18.5 points vs MEM (+101)
Fact #1: If you believe in trends like I do, then you’ll appreciate that Hayward’s point totals have been the following through four games: 28 — 12 — 28 — 11… which should the trend continue, indicates a good game on the horizon.
Fact #2: But let’s support that “outlandish claim” with supporting evidence: The Grizzlies are allowing a league-high 32.8 points per contest to the small forward position early on this season, including a 42-point thrashing at the hands Jaylen Brown just the other day.
Sixth and Seventh Picks: Donte DiVincenzo O11.5 points (-110) and O1.5 Made 3Pters (-134) vs CHI
Fact #1: DiVincenzo has hit at least three 3’s in four of five games and the fifth game featured two makes.
Fact #2: He has also scored 13+ points in four of five contests with the outlier game being a 10-point effort in Milwaukee’s uncharacteristic blowout at the hands of the Knicks (same game with only two made 3s.
Fact #3: The Bulls are allowing an average of 26 points per game to the 2-guard position early on this season.
Recap: The Bucks were leading by 5 with 2:20 left in the first and then surrendered an 11-0 run by the Heat to close the quarter. Elsewhere, Durant did everything against the Hawks, except cook three times from behind the arc.
First Pick: Cavs +2 1st Quarter vs IND(-109) – Loser
Fact #1: The Pacers have yet to hold a lead entering the 2nd quarter in this young season and are 0-4 ATS in the 1st quarter thus far
Fact #2: The Cavs are 3-1 ATS in the first quarter thus far
Second Pick: Darius Garland O14.5 pts vs IND(-121) – winner
Fact #1: Garland has posted 15+ points in three of four games this season
Fact #2: The Pacers are allowing an average of 28.5 points to the 2-guard position through 4 games
Third Pick: Pascal Siakam O19.5 pts vs NYK (-110)
Fact #1: I’m not stopping this “Skilled Big Man Point Total Over vs NYK” narrative until it goes ice cold. I played Drummond on my own the other night, but felt shaky about it blog wise and it didn’t hit because he didn’t get the shot attempts. So it’s like it never happened in our world.
Fact #2: Siakim dominated this matchup a season ago, posting point totals of 23 and 31 points, respectively.
Fact #3: Siakim has eclipsed 20+ points in two of three games thus far and the Knicks allow an average of 25.6 points to the PF position.
Fourth Pick:5-Pt Teaser of Thunder +10.5/Suns +9 (+107)
Logic: The Thunder have been playing close games to start, so the points are just for comfort here against a Pelicans team off to a 2-2 start. On the other side, the Suns played the Jazz well in two meetings last season + aside from a thrashing of the Blazers to open the season, teams have kept it close with Utah out the gate
Recap: I’ve already found a trend that I don’t like: the 3 props I’ve incorrectly picked were the result of the player’s team playing too well. On Christmas, Jrue Holiday and company had no reason to play the 4th quarter, ending at 12 points in 25 minutes. It happened on Opening Night with Joe Harris and Kawhi Leonard, too. If only I could predict the potential blowout…
First Pick: James Wiseman O12.5 Pts vs CHI(-134)
Fact #1: The Bulls are allowing 23.5 points per game to the Center position early on.
Fact #2: Wiseman broke out the 3-point shot on Christmas, which is only going to give him more shot opportunities.
Fact #3: Wiseman has posted 19 and 18 points, respectively in his first two games against Brooklyn and Milwaukee, which feature better defensive big men than Chicago.
Fact #4: Draymond Green remains out, which just gives Wiseman more looks in Golden State’s offensive sets.
Second Pick: Kyrie Irving O2.5 Made 3Ptersvs CHA(-120)
Fact #1: Irving has posted 3-pt made totals of 4 (vs GSW) and 7 (vs BOS) through two games.
Fact #2: There are no other facts. Brooklyn has the spacing right now to get any shot they want and we should ride the waves until given a reason not to.
Third Pick is a 5-pt Teaser: Nets -5.5/Bucks -7.5 (-104)
Fact #1: Both teams are catching their opponents on the second half of back-to-back sets. The Hornets lost a last-second shot against the Thunder, while the Knicks were beat by the Sixers.
Fact #2: Both of these teams have put up big point totals to start (124.0 per game an 129.5, respectively). Not having the freshest of legs, I don’t see neither the Hornets, nor the Knicks keeping up by the time this game reaches the 4th quarter.
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The 300s 