Tag: Travis Kelce

Silver Linings from the Patriots’ Loss to the Chiefs

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I am not a silver linings type of guy, as I said yesterday there are no moral victories in the National Football League. Yes, the Patriots lost 26-10 to the Chiefs last night, BUT there are some things to build on here for a team that was not playing with a full deck.

Defense Delights
The Patriots defense was masterful for much of the night (except for 2 dropped picks) holding the Chiefs to their lowest offensive yards total all season, just a week after they dropped 517 yards and 34 points on the Ravens. Patrick Mahomes was held to 236 yards and 2 TDs (both of which were about 2 foot tosses). The Pats also stifled Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the Chiefs running game all day, holding CEH to just 64 yards on 20 carries. Travis Kelce only had 3 catches for 70 yards on the night, but killed the Pats on a 45 yard reception late in the game.

RIP to the Brian Hoyer Era
The Brian Hoyer era lasted a grand total of 44 minutes.

Hoyer killed the Patriots with rookie mistakes all night long before mercifully getting benched by Belichick. I am normally a pretty calm guy watching the game and scrolling twitter in between plays, but I literally YELLED at my TV when Hoyer took that sack to end the first half and cost the Pats a field goal.

You can argue that the team was too cavalier with their timeouts, but thats because they had a guy in his 12th year in the NFL under center. He should know better so that was infuriating to watch. Hoyer only made it worse later in the game when a pass rusher blew by him and instead of immediately getting the ball out, he patted the ball somehow thinking the defender was gone. Nope, that guy immediately peeled back and forced the fumble on Hoyer who for some god forsaken reason still had the ball in his hands. Hoyer’s Awareness rating in Madden must have taken a nosedive after this performance.

In came Jarret Stidham, who the Pats finally reached their breaking point and relented on letting him play after Stid had the gall to go to a wedding over the summer. All it took was less than 3 quarters of watching Brian Hoyer playing for Belichick to pull the plug on that experiment. Physically Stidham looked pretty good as he chucked the ball around with ease. He made the typical mistakes of a young QB, but he also had some alarmingly bad throws with 3 picks (1 of which was called back). I don’t know if thats an accuracy issue or a decision making issue, but one of his interceptions was on an underthrown ball in the face of pressure. If he just steps up in the pocket to avoid the rush, this is a TD.

He did hit N’Keal Harry with a pretty touch pass in the back of the end zone for a touchdown on his first career completion though so that was nice to see.

Harry was a huge disappointment last year for various reasons, but it seems the experience of being in Year 2 combined with the power of positive reinforcement from Cam Newton hyping him up has paid huge dividends. Ironic, considering one of Tom Brady’s best friends is Tony Robbins, the de facto king of positive thinking, but it takes Cam Newton to bring it out of Harry.

Turnovers Galore
The Pats were uncharacteristcally sloppy, turning the ball over four times compared to just once by the Chiefs. You’re rarely going to win a game when you lose the turnover battle, you are never going to win a game against the Chiefs when you spot them points.

Young Guys Shine
Chase Winovich has officially arrived this season and particularly in this game as he was wrecking havoc and hurrying Mahomes all night long. Very encouraging to see for a team that is desperate for some pass rushers after all the players that either left via free agency or opted out this season.

Damiere Byrd looked like a legit NFL receiver yet again with five catches for 80 yards, but he also saw 10 targets so the QBs (not just Cam Newton) seem to trust him to make plays.

Damien Harris FINALLY stepped onto the field and he did not disappoint, racking up 100 yards in his first significant NFL game action. Harris only had 4 touches all of last season and was a scratch most weeks so I have been dying to see the former Alabama back get some significant work. With Sony Michel back on IR this is Harris’ time to shine and I think he probably takes the RB1 job for good. Granted the Pats routinely roll out multiple runningbacks on any given week, but I think Harris is the locked in bellcow back moving forward if he stays healthy.

Kyle Dugger looked great and his athleticism was apparent as he made some touch tackles, which impressed me the most considering the Patriots’ top pick was essentially playing Division II football last year.

Get Well Soon Cam
The Patriots showed they can hang with the class of the league if they play their best football, which they did for large shares of the night. Their QB play is what ultimately sunk them, but if these two teams meet again later this season it would be with Newton under center who obviously turns the Patriots offense into a completely different beast.

Edelman Drops
Jules had the dropsies last night, including a pass deflected off his hands that turned into a walk-in pick six for the Chiefs.

It’s tough to see Edelman drop more and more balls as he gets up there because he has been so money for so long for this Patriots team. It’s something to keep an eye on. He is far from washed, as we saw in the Seattle matchup when Edelman had one of the best games of his entire career with Newton slinging him the ball. But it makes sense for the Pats to not have their entire offense depend on a 34-year-old receiver.

Although Edelman’s potential heir to the New England Slot only had one catch last night, Gunner Olszewski sure as shit made it count with this one.

Give Me a Break
Looot of breaks went the Chiefs way last night and the Pats were still hanging around for most of the game. By far the worst was the fumble return that was whistled dead WAY too quickly and ultimately ruled a sack.

The clear strip and fumble return was blown dead by the refs who said they thought Mahomes was “in the grasp” of defenders.

Now I understand the irony of a Patriots fan complaining about a quarterback sack not being called a fumble, but that call was horrific. Total hose job.

There was also the Chiefs punt returner somehow not touching that bouncing ball a la Edelman in the AFC Championship, and the brutal roughing the passer call on Mahomes who should have won an Oscar on the play.

Overall this team looked pretty good playing the defending SB champs with their 2nd and 3rd string quarterback after commuting to Kansas City the day of the game. They showed they can hang with the best of them so I look forward to seeing this team back at full strength. The Pats are now 2-2 and 2 games back in the AFC East though trailing the Bills who look legit behind sudden MVP candidate Josh Allen. I knew the Bills would be good this year, but I did not expect this type of jump from Allen so kudos to them. The race for the AFC East crown is on now.

Patriots Chiefs AFC Championship Preview, Odds, and Predictions

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For only just the fourth time this decade, the AFC Championship will not be held at Gillette Stadium. And, for the very first time ever, the game will be held at legendary Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City – long said to be one of the loudest, craziest, and toughest venues to play in throughout the entire NFL.

Some are also saying it could be a symbolic changing of the guard were the Chiefs to win, as 41-year-old Tom Brady – the man, the myth, the legend, the G.O.A.T. – is set to square off against 23-year-old NFL phenom Patrick Mahomes – the young hotshot (and likely MVP) who posted 5,097 passing yards and 50 touchdowns in his first year as a starter. Perhaps not since a young Tom Brady has a signal-caller burst onto the scene so quickly and with such force, and now they’re set to face each other for a chance to win a title. How poetic.

The game will also feature two top-five offenses, which both averaged well over 3.5 touchdowns per game in 2018 and are loaded at pretty much every position on that side of the ball.

On defense, it’s a bit of a different story. Both teams finished in the bottom third of the league in total defense this season, even though the Pats have given up six less points per game. This, coupled with the explosive offenses on both sides, might lead many to believe we’re in for a shootout; however, most reports are predicting single-digit temperatures at kickoff, which is obviously going to affect both teams’ ability to move the ball.

This one is gonna be fun.

Before we get into the preview, here’s a look at when, where, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Jan. 20, 6:40 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: +3 (spread) / Patriots: +145 (moneyline) / 55.5 (total)

For the first time this season, the Patriots actually have a plus sign in front of the spread on their side of the line; that’s because this is the first time, in 17 games this season, that the Pats are the underdog. It is not the first time they’ve ever been a dog in the postseason; in fact, it has happened seven times during the Brady/Belichick era. But most of those games came early on in the run, during TB12’s younger days, as the Pats have been the favorite all but ONCE in their other playoff games since 2006. It’s important to note, though, that the team is 1-4 in their last five road playoff games.

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Things didn’t go so well the last time the Pats played on the road in January.

But rather than continue to get caught up in numbers and past history, let’s instead take a look at who these two teams are this season.

Again, while I did say last week that Los Angeles might have the most talented roster from top to bottom in the AFC, there’s no doubt that Kansas City’s offense is simply unmatched. Anyone who’s paid attention at all to the NFL this year knows just how prolific Mahomes has been, but the Chiefs also feature three other First Team All-Pros on offense (four in total, including Mahomes) and averaged a silly 35.3 points per game in 2018, good for third all-time.

Those other three players are wide receiver Tyreek Hill, tight end Travis Kelce, and offensive tackle Mitchell Schwartz. Hill and Kelce form perhaps the most lethal WR/TE combo in the game right now, as they both combined to total 190 catches, 2,815 yards, and 22 touchdowns on the year. (WHAT???!!!) Those numbers are truly unbelievable, in every sense of the word.

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Seriously, what a freakin’ combo these two are.

Hill also torched the Pats the last time these two teams played, in Week 6, to the tune of 142 yards and three scores. His pure speed is almost superhero-esque, as he has routinely been clocked at speeds of 20-23 miles per hour (as a human being), and no matter whether the Pats choose to bracket him or not, this man can do some damage. No matter what.

Fortunately, the Pats have been great against tight ends this season, finishing eighth in DVOA against the position. They also held Kelce to just five catches and 51 yards back in October. Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, and Duron Harmon will be tasked with keeping him at bay once again, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t with how strong they’ve played all season.

And while many would expect the Chiefs running game to have crumbled after losing Kareem Hunt, they’ve actually been just fine without him. While partly due to injury, which has kept him out the past four games, Spencer Ware has not been as effective as the team hoped in Hunt’s stead. But, Damien Williams – a former Dolphins disappointment – has been reborn in Kansas City; since Week 13, when he was finally given the chance to play meaningful minutes, the 26-year-old has averaged 5.3 yards a carry and four catches per game. He’s also coming off a 154-yard, five-catch, one-score performance against the Colts last week. So, yeah, the Chiefs can still run the ball, too.

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Williams is playing the best football of his life right now.

As pointed out in last night’s podcast, the Pats have actually put up more yards of total offense over the past six games (2,523) than the Chiefs (2,466), so there should be no doubt that they can keep up, especially against Kansas City’s lackluster defense. The only thing that can stop either side is the weather, which I do believe will be a factor.

Now, let’s get into some storylines and matchups to watch out for:

(Neutralize the Pass-Rush): For as much flak as Kansas City’s defense gets, they have a pretty good trio of pass-rushers in Justin Houston, Dee Ford, and Chris Jones. Ford (13 sacks in 2018) and Houston (a former All-Pro with nine sacks in just 12 games this year) are known commodities, but Jones exploded onto the scene this year with 15.5 QB takedowns of his own. We’ve talked at length about how good the Pats O-line has been this year, and they completely shut down Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa last week. They’ll have their hands full again in this one, though.

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Impending free agent, Dee Ford, is going to be playing for his next contract in this one.

(Another Prime Spot for Sony): I said that Sony Michel would need to have a big game last week for the Pats to win, and he did just that with 129 rushing yards and three scores. He’s a big reason why the Pats were able to dominate time of possession, and he’ll need to do that again this week to keep the ball away from Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs attack. Before last week, the Chiefs were giving up an average of 164.2 yards on the ground to opponents in the five games prior, and the rookie did have 106 yards and two scores against Kansas City in Week 6. Hopefully the kid steps up big once again on Sunday night.

(OH, and The Other Backs, Too): “Big Game James” White came to play when it mattered most once again, with 15 catches last week, tying an NFL postseason record for running backs. He’ll likely be relied upon once again to move the chains on short passes out of the backfield against a team that struggles mightily against the short-to-intermediate passing game. Rex Burkhead could also be called upon to share the load as well to keep the Chiefs guessing. Theoretically, the Patriots offense could actually run entirely through the running back corps on Sunday night, with a heavy dose of Julian Edelman sprinkled in as well – pretty much exactly the offense they ran to beat L.A. last week. (The Chiefs are also terrible against tight ends, so maybe we see good old Gronk helping out a bit as well. This is as good as spot as any for him to do so.)

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Perhaps one of the most underrated players in Patriots history, White will be called upon once again in K.C.

Prediction

It’s going to be cold, it’s going to be a battle, and it’s going to result in the Patriots going to yet another Super Bowl. Maybe it’s recency bias; maybe it’s because we got a guy named Tom Brady; or maybe it’s because I really just want it to happen. Regardless, I say the game remains close until late in the second half, when the Chiefs start to fade and Belichick out-coaches Andy Reid in the big moments with the game on the line. The Pats will take it 27-20 and head to Atlanta to try and secure ring No. 6.

Patriots Chiefs Week 6 Game Preview, Odds, and Things to Watch For

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Two straight wins have vaulted the Pats right back up to the top of the AFC East heading into Week 6. Go ahead and smile, Pats Nation. It’s OK. But don’t get too cocky, as the SCORCHING-HOT, undefeated Kansas City Chiefs are coming to town this weekend for a Sunday night showdown.

As always, here’s a quick look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 14, 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBC
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -3.5 (spread)/Patriots: -175 (moneyline)/59.5 (total)

Just by looking at the numbers, you can see that this one is expected to be a barn burner and an absolute shoot-out. In fact, the current 59.5-point total is slated to be the second-highest over/under for any game within the last 15 years (just behind the 60-point total which closed for a game between the Chiefs and Raiders in 2003). Points are going to be scored in this one. Get ready for some major offensive firepower – on both sides.

The Chiefs currently have the league’s fourth-ranked offense and are averaging 35 points per game, which is the second-highest mark in the league behind the New Orleans Saints. The team is being led by MVP-candidate Patrick Mahomes, a second-year quarterback who was given the keys to the car this year and has rewarded Kansas City for that move with a league-leading 16 total touchdowns so far.

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Here’s Mahomes – probably getting ready to embarrass some poor defensive back in front of thousands of people.

It’s worth noting that he’s only got a five-game track record – six, if you want to include the one game he started as a rookie last year – and young signal-callers usually end up defecating all over themselves their first time playing in Foxborough. But this kid has been absolutely electric this year, and while Belichick probably has a few tricks up his sleeve to slow Mahomes down, the Pats defense just doesn’t have the talent needed to shut down a player of his caliber completely.

Mahomes’s historic season has certainly been aided by the plethora of offensive weapons at his disposal. Seriously, this offense is LOADED. Tyreek Hill is one of the league’s most explosive talents at wide receiver. Travis Kelce is the easily best tight end behind Gronk. Former first-rounder Sammy Watkins is a solid, albeit inconsistent, No. 3 option in the passing game. And Kareem Hunt – last season’s league-leading rusher – is off to another great start with 376 yards on the ground so far, good for fourth in the league. (Oddly, though, for a guy who had over 50 catches last year, Hunt is not getting the ball thrown his way anymore and has just five receptions in 2018. Mahomes has pretty much been getting it done with his wide receivers and tight ends all year.)

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Hunt (27), Hill (10), and Kelce (87) are one nasty trio.

Fortunately, the Chiefs’ defense is ranked dead-last in the NFL, and they have given up by far the most passing yards in the league. Therefore, Brady & Co. should have no trouble keeping up on the scoreboard. And while our defense doesn’t come without it’s own issues (gee, have I mentioned that before?), I have much more confidence in the Pats’ ability to stem the tide than I do the Chiefs.

Also, after coming out EN FUEGO the first few weeks, Mahomes is actually starting to come back down to earth. Over the past two weeks, he’s only thrown for one score while tossing two picks; the yards have still have still been there, though, and the team hasn’t lost, so he’s still moving the ball. However, maybe he’s not completely impossible to stop after all.

Storylines

(Can Jason McCourty Solidify His Spot in the Secondary?): After going from exciting new offseason addition to potential final-roster cut candidate and starting the season buried on the depth chart, Jason McCourty has played outstanding the past couple of weeks and seems to be quite rejuvenated. He’s truly been one of the team’s very best defenders and was all over the Colts receivers last Thursday night. Eric Rowe, who started the season as the team’s No. 2 corner, is now probably unlikely to reclaim his starting spot when he returns from injury. That is, of course, unless McCourty gets torched by Mahomes and his minions this week. This is a huge game for Jason McCourty, and I’ll be watching him very closely on Sunday night.

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You’ve been playing great lately, Jason. Don’t blow it.

(Will Chris Hogan Finally Wake Up?): There is no doubt that Hogan has been one of the team’s biggest disappointments this season. With Julian Edelman out for the first four weeks of the season and a dearth of other receiving options on the team, many expected Hogan to serve as a bona fide No. 1 wide-out for as long as needed. Except for a lucky two-touchdown game in Week 2 against the Jags, Hogan has yet to surpass 34 yards in a game this season. There’s also two games this year where he’s hauled in just one pass. To be fair, he hasn’t been getting many targets, but that probably has to do with him being unable to get any separation. I believe Hogan is much better served as a No. 2 or 3 option in an offense, and Edelman’s return should actually open more things up for him. But if he can’t get it going against Kansas City’s horrendous pass-coverage, YIKES.

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EARTH TO CHRIS HOGAN! Where ya been, bud?

(Two of the Best Minds in the Game Go Head-to-Head): I’m pretty sure by now everyone’s heard of that guy Bill Belichick and how great of a coach he is. And even the most casual of NFL fans should know about Andy Reid, now in his sixth year as head coach of the Chiefs after spending 13 years as the leading man in Philadelphia. Both men have a pretty extensive track record of success, but I’m unsure if people realize just how much of an offensive visionary Reid is. Not only are his offenses always near the top of the league each season, but he was the one who decided to go all in and draft Mahomes last season, even when most others throughout the franchise were fine sticking with Alex Smith. The guy is an offensive visionary, and this will be a fun chess match to watch between two of the game’s best and brightest.

Prediction

As I said, this one is going to be a whirlwind, with tons of yards and points galore. I do think the Pats will tame Mahomes much more than people expect, but don’t forget about Kareem Hunt and the running game; this is not a one-dimensional offense. This one could be a real boxing match, with both teams trading blows all night long. In the end, I think the Pats benefit from some home cooking and eek out a win, 33-30, with a late Stephen Gostkowski field goal.

Travis Kelce is Bizarro Ben Watson After Big Timing His Own Team

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In another edition of Thank God I’m a Patriots fan, we have Travis Kelce completely big timing his own team after another shitty Alex Smith interception.

Listen it must be enraging to play with Alex Smith. The guy sucks, then he doesn’t, then he plays at an MVP level at the beginning of this season, but it seems like he’s finally turned back into a pumpkin. And for a really good tight end like Kelce thats gotta be a pain in the ass to deal with, but you’re also a captain my man so being a massive dickhead by throwing your arms up in the air and giving up on a play is not a good look.

In contrast lets take a look at the classic play by Ben Watson against the Broncos years ago when Brady threw an absolute back breaker of an interception.

Unlike Kelce, Watson busts his balls, running from the other side of the field and sprinting around defenders to chase down All-Pro cornerback Champ Bailey at the Patriots goal line. Watson runs at least 110 yards full speed to catch one of the best athletes of our generation and fucking SMOKE Bailey to force the fumble. Didn’t win us the game, but was an all effort play that basically gave Watson a free pass in my brain for all those passes he dropped over the years. Hell I used to joke with my brother that I wonder if Ben Watson’s wife lets him hold the baby. But after that play, I’ll let it slide. Not to mention he’s STILL in the league, playing for the Ravens now. So, long story short, Travis Kelce is bizarro Ben Watson.

PS – In the interest of full disclosure I must confess to having watched several episodes of Catching Kelce while hungover on the couch. Goddamn VH1 just makes such awesomely bad shows I binge watch the shit out of while nursing a hangover.

I also have seen many episodes of Eric Decker’s VH1 show Eric & Jessie.

Okay, now I feel better.