Even though free-agent deals and offseason trades cannot be officially announced until Wednesday afternoon, teams were allowed to begin “negotiations” with available players as of Monday morning. But, as we are in the age of social media and “I SAID IT FIRST” journalism, we’ll probably know where most of the top guys are going before we all even sit down for dinner on Tuesday night.
Per Adam Schefter, we already know that Brady’s big ole blindside protector from last season is off to Cali:
Former Patriots’ OT Trent Brown intends to sign a four-year, $66 million contract that includes $36.75 million guaranteed with the Oakland Raiders, per source, making him highest paid OL in NFL history.
Again, it’s no shocker to hear that Trent Brown is heading off to greener pastures. This isn’t to say he’s not deserving. After all, he did serve as the team’s left tackle on what was arguably the league’s best O-line last season.
It’s just that we all knew the Pats weren’t going to pay him, especially at over $16 million per year with more than double that amount guaranteed. (Seriously, though, that is one helluva windfall for a guy who had never been a full-time starting left tackle until 2018. Congrats, big fella!)
Most assume the Pats will simply plug in Isaiah Wynn as Brown’s replacement after spending a first-round pick on the 22-year-old just last season. That very well could happen, but let’s also not forget he lost his entire rookie season due to an Achilles injury he suffered just last August. Those are not easy injuries to come back from, especially for a position which relies so much on quick and stable footwork. I fully expect the Pats to bring in some competition for him, either with a high draft pick or a free-agent signing.
So there you have it: the first domino to fall for the Pats this offseason.
Blogger’s Note: The 2019 NFL Draft Combine ended earlier this week after a grueling four days where players were made to wear spandex while running, lifting, jumping, being asked if they had both nuts, and doing positional drills. Now we’ve been given the yearly transparency into how these players stack up side by side, from a raw athleticism point of view.With that in mind I kicked off a little electronic mail with Mattes, my fellow draft nerd, about this year’s class and what it could mean for the Pats.
Joey B:
Hey Mattes,
So the combine is all over and apart from the Pro days the stage is set for the draft. What are your thoughts coming out of the “underwear olympics” and of this draft class?
Mattes:
I’mma let Maverick sum this one up for me:
Seriously, though, if this weekend didn’t prove how the NFL is all about speed now, then I don’t know what will. Gone are the days where the big, no-neck dudes reign supreme. In today’s NFL, it’s about the more svelte, quick-burst type guys, even at historically beefy positions like D-tackle, D-end, and middle linebacker. Just look at all of the hype surrounding Montez Sweat (DE, Mississippi State) after his 4.41-second performance in the 40 this weekend. That’s an excellent time for anyone to post, but that’s absolutely insane for a defensive lineman. He probably just vaulted himself into the top 10 (top 15, at minimum) after that one. Even Michigan’s Rashan Gary – with his 6’5″, 282-pound frame – posted an impressive 4.58-second mark and undoubtedly moved himself even further up in the first round, too. There were also four linebackers who posted times 4.5 seconds and below. If there’s one area the Pats desperately need to improve, it’s speed over the middle of the defense (e.g. a linebacker with sideline-to-sideline ability). Fortunately, it looks like there might be some help in this year’s crop.
JB: Hah yaaa it was a big long weekend for the front-7. To that end I don’t think it will be one of those “glamorous” draft where we have marquee names at skill positions littering the top-20. Those names just aren’t out there (really outside of Kyler Murray, who are the “10 year” talents?. What there are a lot of are guys like Ed Oliver who can change the game in the trenches and try to alter these pass heavy NFL offenses.
But we’ll get to that. I think it’s important to address how many possible bust situations this combine has created. A lot of guys with not a lot of production in college but eye-popping results in Indianapolis.
Mattes: I agree that the potential for busts has increased significantly over the past few years with all the Combine hype. While there’s no doubt that pure speed is definitely becoming more valuable than pure strength, I do think people put way too much merit in the 40-yard-dash. Not only does it prove absolutely ZILCH in terms of football I.Q. and ability, but very rarely do guys run 40 yards in a straight line. Like ever. To be honest, drills like the shuttles or the three-cone drill are a much better indicator of how well a guy can move all around the field. I think most NFL teams around the league are smart enough to still look at game tape before locking in on their guy, but there are plenty that still fall victim to the all the Combine B.S. (see: Raiders, Oakland).
I think the best example of a “look before you leap” candidate this year is wide receiver D.K. Metcalf from Ole Miss. Besides Sweat, this is the dude who has been getting the most attention in Indy, and rightfully so. It all started last week with him looking like he was formed straight from Zeus’s forehead on Instagram.
Then, the guy ran a 4.33-second 40-time, posted 27 reps on the bench press, and almost jumped through the roof of Lucas Oil Stadium with a 40.5-inch vertical – all at 6’3″ and 228 pounds. But let’s not forget that this guy has just 67 catches in 21 college games (although he did average over 21 yards per catch in 2018). So, again, all the measurables are there with this guy, and then some, but I’m not sure if he’s truly worthy of a spot in the top half of the first round. At least, he certainly doesn’t come without risk. I’d be more comfortable with a guy like Arizona State’s N’Keal Harry, who posted just as many reps on the bench, is about the same size (6’4″, 213 pounds), and has over 200 catches and 25 total TDs over the past three years.
JB: Yup! Metcalf is certainly going to now be picked higher than necessary. I actually REALLY like his teammate from Ole Miss, A.J Brown. He has Q Boldin-like (<3) size (6’0 226lb) and caught over 1,300 yards with 6 TDs this year.
Moving onto the Pats, one of the funkier things about looking at their drafts is that obviously you have to always keep the past season in mind. Not to sound like jackass New England fans but we’re always a top team year to year so it’s sort of difficult to peg where our most glaring need is, especially in the top few rounds. Where do you think positionally we could use some draft help?
Mattes: Wide receiver is the most obvious, and there could be some good guys to be had at the end of Round 1. I’ve seen as many as three or four wideouts being taken in the first round of some mocks; there’s just not really a consensus as to how the top ones all shake out. Metcalf and Brown are likely to be gone early on, but I wouldn’t mind a guy like Harry at No. 32. I’m also a really big fan of Marquise Brown from Oklahoma.
Tight end is another area they should look at, whether Gronk comes back or not. The reason why is because there’s actually a very rare amount of tight end talent near the top of the draft, and it could be worth nabbing one of them, possibly by even trading up in the first round to do so. Somehow, two of them are from Iowa, T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant, with the former being more of a pass-catching/blocking combo (a la Gronk) and the latter being a more athletic, Evan Engram-esque type. Alabama’s Irv Smith Jr. is another solid option, and he caught everything thrown his way in the gauntlet drill this weekend. I know I’m on the record as saying they shouldn’t reach on a tight end this year just because we’re nearing the end with Gronk, but if any of these guys are somehow still there at the end of the first round, Belichick shouldn’t even blink before handing in the card.
Finally, I’d like to see them add to the defensive front, especially at linebacker and especially in terms of speed. I just want guys who can cover someone – ANYONE – over the middle of the field and who don’t look like their feet are stuck in concrete half the time. We could also use some reinforcements along the line with the potential to lose three rotation guys in free agency, most notably Trey Flowers. Fortunately, this draft is absolutely LOADED in terms of pass-rushing talent, so the Pats can probably wait on selecting one. Although perhaps an interior guy with some ability to get to the quarterback (Ohio State’s Dre’Mont Jones and Notre Dame’s Jerry Tillery come to mind) wouldn’t be a bad choice at 32.
What do you think?
JB: While I agree WR is a huge position of need and would love to grab Harry or M.Brown we just don’t have the history of drafting them that high. Action Jackson was the only one we’ve even reached into RD2 for to my memory (I’m probably forgetting a couple). Maybe Belichick just likes to stick to vets who can prove they can do the “little” things at WR the “right way” (he loves the little things).
I agree the DL could use the pick as much as any other positional group. Dre’Mont Jones is an excellent call. I could also see them looking local and grabbing Zach Allen out of BC. Allen is a similar size ( 6’4 280lb) as Jones but is more an End to Jones’ Tackle. He’s got a little Trey Flowers in him as he is a guy who can play the edge on 1st and 2nd and then move inside on passing downs. Finally, if he is around, and this is a HUGE if, I wouldn’t mind landing Dexter Lawrence, a DT from Clemson. He is a MAMMOTH tackle (350lb) who we could potentially use as a run stuffer a la Big Vince.
What about past round 1? Any wildcards you like for the Pats or otherwise?
Mattes: You are correct, sir: Belichick has never taken a wide receiver in Round 1. But hey, there’s a first time for everything, right? We shall see.
And nice choice with Allen there. He’s very Flowers-like in that he can both defend the run and rush the quarterback. As far as Dexter Lawrence goes, while I’m not denying how much of a force he can be, I think Lawrence Guy proved last season that he is more than capable of being our big run-stuffer. Sure, we could always use more than one, but I think there’s much more value to be had in bringing in high-end talent at other positions with such a high pick. Like I mentioned above with Jones and Tillery, I wouldn’t mind bringing in more guys who can bring some interior pressure at first and then looking at guys who play more on the outside a little later on.
As far as a wild card pick at the end of Round 1, don’t be shocked if the team decides to bring in more help on the offensive line. Even after what was an historic year for the O-line as a whole, we’re likely going to lose Trent Brown in free agency this offseason. And Isaiah Wynn, who wasn’t even a full-time left tackle in college, is coming off a tough injury and is entirely unproven. What if he doesn’t work out? Also, Joe Thuney is scheduled to be a free agent after next season. With an aging QB and a much bigger focus on the ground game going forward, Belichick could continue to bolster the boys up front. (Kansas State’s Dalton Risner is a name to keep an eye on near the end of the first.)
What about some late-round guys? Who are some sneaky sleepers for the folks?
JB: I think Thuney is a prototypical “guy we’ll actually pay” but the OL is something I’m never going to be comfortable with. I like Risner a lot. That’d be a great get. I also like Mike Jordan (yup) out of Ohio State. He’s a bit of an odd fit as he’s about 6’6 but projected as an interior lineman. He is a Pats-type player, though, as he can play multiple positions (Guard or Center). To add to that though people are saying “no way” to Jordan being a Tackle, I think even either of us, weighing maybe 300lb combined, could probably play a down or two after a couple months training with Dante Scarnecchia.
O YOU WANT TO TALK SLEEPERS?
Keeping with the Pats you have to love David Sills. Once offered a scholarship by the USC Trojans as the next big thing at QB, his career didn’t pan out under center and he ended being a productive WR for the West Virginia Mountaineers. He still has the QB size (6’4 210lb) and you can’t ever wipe the “QB brain” for the game, something you know Belichick would love. He’s not freaky-athletic, posting a 4.57 and a 37.5 jump, but maybe a big body who can move the chains.
Next the cure to your TE ills we have Donald Parham out of the powerhouse known as Stetson. He is from the Jimmy Graham-Tony G mould where he began on the hardwood and transitioned to football. That’s the high school hardwood. He then had to prove himself for a few years on the Hatters football team before going off for 1,300+ yards and 8 TDs this past year. O and he’s 6’8. Parham might never be a blocking talent but a jump-ball end zone threat? Maybe.
Lastly I’m going with Justin Hollins out of Oregon. He is an edge rusher, probably a 3/4 OLB, who steadily progressed over his career with the Ducks rather than making one giant “leap”. His teammate and fellow pass rusher Jalen Jelks is getting more burn on the draft circuit, but Hollins might end up being the better player.
O and ya I know, Tyree Jackson is gigantic and fast and can throw the ball hard.
Mattes: HA! Tyree Jackson is a MONSTER (think Cam Newton but two inches taller). I think probably the funniest moment of the weekend is former NFL stud receiver Steve Smith having to go over to tell Jackson to stop throwing the ball so damn hard at receivers in the gauntlet drill. But being so raw and after playing for a small school like Buffalo, I think there are much better options on which to take a stab at QB, even though he’d be a blast to watch.
Speaking of, one of my big sleepers for the Pats is Northwestern’s Clayton Thorson. A 32-to-27 TD-to-INT ratio over the past two seasons might give some people pause, but he’s started more games (53) than anyone in Big Ten history and has more wins than any other N.U. Wildcat that ever lived. He’s also posted two straight seasons with QB ratings over 120. What’s most impressive, though, is that he played a full season of football in 2018 after tearing his ACL just last January. So he’s one tough S.O.B., and he’s also 6’4″, 226 pounds. Above all, though, his last name is “Thor-son.” Just think of how much fun we could have with that name.
I also like Anthony Nelson, a D-end from Iowa. Like A LOT. The 6’7″ defensive end might be one of the draft’s best-kept secrets due to an abnormal amount of talent depth at the position this year. His 9.5 sacks were good for second in the Big Ten last season, after totals of 6.0 and 7.5, respectively, in his previous two years. He has the ability to play in multiple schemes, potentially even as a standup linebacker, and the guy also recorded the fifth-fastest 40-time for all D-lineman at the Combine this weekend. He could stand to add some beef to his sub-275-pound frame, but he could be a steal in the middle rounds.
JB: Well buddy we have about a month and a half left before we see how this all plays out. And before that we have the Pro Days and all the other little rumors trickling in. I’d argue from now until April 25th is the fun part.
After a solid performance against the Texans at home in Week 1, the Patriots already have their first tough matchup of the year. This Sunday, they’re set to square off on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who, were it not for a big fourth-quarter Patriots comeback – capped off by a HUGE touchdown from Danny “Playoff” Amendola with 2:48 remaining – would have been last year’s AFC champions.
As always, here’s a quick snapshot of when, where, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:
Somehow, the Patriots are favored in this one, but BUYER BEWARE. I don’t know if people are still somehow basing their opinion off of old, outdated perceptions, but these ain’t your granddaddy’s Jaguars.
Again, this is a team that was leading 20-10 early on in the fourth quarter against the Pats in last year’s AFC championship, and one that is bringing back pretty much every starter from a truly stifling defense that finished second in both yards allowed and points per game allowed in 2017. They also finished second in both sacks and interceptions to boot. Point being: their D is absolutely lethal, perhaps even “all-time” good. (Yes, they really are that freakin’ good.)
Jalen Ramsey (left) and A.J. Bouye (right) form unquestionably the best corner pairing in the game right now.
On the offensive side of things, the Jags are not quite as daunting, but they’re certainly not bereft of talent. Stud running back Leonard Fournette is expected to play, as long as his hamstring, which forced him out of action early on in Week 1, holds up at practice on Friday:
It’s the Patriots game. Only way Fournette is missing that is if there’s a setback. Hard to do with more rest. So, I’d relax. @_fournette also gotta keep snacking on kale, avocado, beans, & nuts etc.. #AntiCrampingFoods and of course stay hydrated. https://t.co/zuo4ohtoaN
Even though the Pats held him to just 3.2 yards per carry in January, he’s still probably one of the game’s best. Also, backup T.J. Yeldon, one of this week’s hottest fantasy pickups, is no slouch either; he finished the game with almost 70 total yards in relief of Fournette last Sunday, and let’s not forget he averaged 5.2 yards per carry as the team’s backup ball-carrier last year. Both backs can also catch balls out of the backfield, so the Pats will need to watch out for them all over the field on Sunday.
Fortunately, the Jaguars have Blake Bortles and a depleted receiving corps responsible for the other half of the offense. Bortles is perhaps one of the most intriguing players in the entire league; here’s a guy who’s thrown over 20 touchdowns in three straight seasons, including 35 of them in 2015, but one who has also thrown 48 picks over that same time frame and can oftentimes look like a lost Pop Warner player on the field.
To be fair, though, Bortles did come on strong toward the end of last season, and he played very well in the AFC championship (23/36, 293 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 98.5 RTG). You could do a lot worse than him at quarterback, and if you’re not careful he can flame you. However, after letting Allen Hurns walk this offseason and losing Marquis Lee for the year due to injury, the Jags receiving corps is still trying to flesh itself out. Besides Keelan Cole – who I’m expecting a big year from and who truly might’ve been one of the best receivers in the NFL over the last five or so weeks of 2017 – it’s a lot of young, highly-drafted guys (Dede Westbrook, D.J. Chark) or extremely overrated veterans (Donte Moncrief, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins) to choose from for Blakey Boy.
Stephon Gilmore and the rest of the secondary should be able to keep Bortles and the receivers at bay in this one, but Fournette and Yeldon could do some work against a Pats defense that gave up the second most receiving yards out of the opposing backfield last season. The Patriots also allowed the Texans to rush for over five yards per carry as a team last week – even when taking Deshaun Watson out of the picture and only accounting for their running backs – so the team could struggle to stop the ground game this week.
Though he was sacked three times, Brady played great against the Jags in January (26/38, 290 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT, 108.4 RTG), but with much less to work with in terms of talent around him, things could be a bit more difficult this time around. Jalen Ramsey should be able to lock down Hogan (if, of course, he’s not on Gronk instead) and A.J. Bouye should be able to take care of whoever else. (Yeah, I know how good Phillip Dorsett looked last week, but don’t expect a repeat performance in Jacksonville.) Rex Burkhead and James White will likely be relied upon heavily again down in the Sunshine State as well.
Storylines to Keep an Eye On
(Can Trent Brown and the Boys Up Front Keep it Up?): Brown passed his first test in a Patriots uniform last week against a strong Texans pass-rush, but Houston’s front pales in comparison to the group the Jags possess. From monster-man Calais Campbell (12.5 sacks in 2017) to guys like Dante Fowler, Yannick Ngakoue, and Malik Jackson, Brown and the rest of the O-line are going to have their hands full once again.
(Will We See Sony Michel?/Running Back Rotation): After missing Week 1 while still recovering from a knee injury, rookie Sony Michel has been participating in positional drills once again at practice this week. While there’s been no real indication from anyone of note as to whether or not he’ll play this Sunday, Kevin Duffy of the Boston Herald points out that the rookie is hopeful:
“I’m doing all I can do to prepare,” Michel said in his first interview since suffering the knee injury. “Whatever coach’s plan is, I don’t know what his plan is, but my mindset is prepare as if I’m playing.”
After losing Jeremy Hill for the season this week to an ACL tear, Michel would certainly be a welcomed presence. I am unsure if the team wants the rookie to begin his NFL life against such a tough defense, but then again Bill is certainly not averse to throwing people right into the fire. If not, then newly signed Kenjon Barner might get a little more run than expected. Kenneth Farrow (Melvin Gordon’s backup with the then-San Diego Chargers in 2016) or preseason standout Ralph Webb could also get promoted from the practice squad. Otherwise, Burkhead and White are both going to be in for a long afternoon.
Come ahhhn, Sony. We’re getting anxious over here.
Prediction
The Patriots come out trying to establish the run and are not so successful. With Hogan and Gronk being locked down by the Jags secondary, this ultimately causes Brady to have to force balls to the likes of Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson, and that doesn’t go so well. Meanwhile, Bortles is able to move the ball a little better than expected against the Pats defense, to the tune of 300 yards and two scores. Brady, as he always does, finds a way to finally punch one or two in later in the game. Unfortunately, though, the Jags win out in the end 20-14.
Last week, we kicked things off with a look at what is likely to be a committee approach at running back for the Pats this season – a group which, come to find out, might actually have a pretty cool nickname – even with shiny new toy Sony Michel in town.
Now a full week into training camp, most people are focusing on exactly whom is going to replace the production of both Brandin Cooks – who was responsible for 1,082 receiving yards and seven touchdowns last season – and Julian Edelman – who may not have played last year but was expected to be Brady’s main target once again in 2018 and now won’t be available for the team’s first four games.
To be entirely honest, while guys like Jacob Hollister and Phillip Dorsett are getting quite a bit of love from local-area beat guys over the past week, I still feel like it’s just way too early to speculate on anything on that front.
We’ll get there, but this time around let’s focus on who’s going to protect Brady’s ass (literally) this season. I’m talking, of course, about the battle at left tackle.
It all really comes down to two guys: rookie Isaiah Wynn and fourth-year man Trent Brown, the latter I have decided to give the nickname “Juggernaut” (for all my X-Men fans out there).
Just in case you’re wondering, he’s listed at 6’8″, 380 pounds, per the team’s website. Good Lord.
(Also, here’s a picture of Juggernaut for those who aren’t a nerd like me):
After Nate Solder departed via free agency this offseason, as expected, one of the team’s top offseason priorities was finding someone to protect Brady’s blindside. All in all, Solder was a pretty solid left tackle who, except for an injury-plagued 2015 campaign, kept TB12 pretty clean for the past seven seasons.
Still, he wasn’t worth the nearly $16 million a year the New York Giants decided to give him, and the Pats instead chose to select Wynn out of Georgia with the first of their two first-round selections in the draft this past May. While Michel might be getting most of the attention, Wynn was actually the top BULLdog (GET IT??!!) in the war room that night.
Horrible pun aside, I actually liked the pick. Even though I definitely thought we could have addressed other positions of need first, after doing a bit of research on Wynn it was hard not to get excited.
First and foremost, he’s extremely versatile, as he played both tackle and guard in college – and we all know Belichick loves versatility. Most experts projected Wynn to strictly be a guard at the NFL level due to his “smaller” size (6’2″, 310 pounds), but the guy was a Second Team All-American as a tackle last year and absolutely DOMINATED Alabama in the national championship. Even though his Bulldogs lost the game, Wynn looked flawless and didn’t allow one sack against one of the very best defenses in the country, which featured two 2018 first-round picks as well as another fourth-rounder.
Seriously, check out how good he looked (he’s No. 77):
If that didn’t do it for ya, I’mma just leave this right here:
1,104 pass blocking snaps by Isaiah Wynn (at guard and tackle) since 2014.
Before even selecting Wynn with the 23rd pick in the draft, Belichick traded the 95th overall pick to San Francisco at the end of April in exchange for the 25-year-old and a fifth-rounder (which ended up becoming Ja’Whaun Bentley, a linebacker out of Purdue).
After being selected by the 49ers in the seventh round of the draft in 2015, Brown didn’t play very much until the end of his rookie season. However, he took over the right tackle spot completely in Year 2, starting all 16 games at the position in 2016 and continuing to do so last season until he was placed on injured reserve with a shoulder issue in December.
As if going from seventh-rounder to starter in less than a year wasn’t impressive enough, how about this quote from Von freakin’ Miller (h/t San Francisco Gate):
“He’s the best right tackle in the National Football League. And he may even be a top-five tackle, period, in the National Football League. There’s not another tackle who’s that tall, that big and can move the way he moves.”
That’s some pretty insane praise from a guy who many consider to be one the very best defenders in the league, if not THE best.
As of right now, it looks like the big(ger) fella is in the lead. Even though he has been a right tackle throughout his career, it seems like the team is confident that Brown’s beautiful synergy of size, strength, and mobility make him a perfect fit for the left side.
So where does that leave Wynn? If he loses out to Brown for the left tackle spot, is he going to replace Joe Thuney or Shaq Mason at guard – two really good lineman in their own right who were both ranked as top-15 players at their position last season, according to Pro Football Focus? Probably not. He’s also not going to replace David Andrews at center or Marcus Cannon at the other tackle spot.
So then what the hell? Would the Pats really spend such a high pick on a reserve offensive lineman? I certainly hope not, but here are a few different ways I can see this playing out:
Maybe the Pats decide to move Thuney or Mason via trade this summer. Though Mason is definitely the better of the two, he is also in the final year of his current deal; since we all know Belichick won’t break the bank for offensive lineman, maybe he’ll try to get something for him now.
Wynn really does serve as the team’s top reserve/swing lineman in 2018, and he simply takes over one of the guard spots next season after Mason walks.
Besides that, I really don’t see any other logical explanation for the embarrassment of riches the Pats currently have up front.
Either way, it’s a good “problem” to have, and it’s nice to know our elder statesman at quarterback will have some good protection in front of him once again in 2018.
Be sure to check in with The 300s next week for Part 3 of the series before the Pats kick off the preseason schedule against Washington next Thursday night!
The 300s 