Category: Patriots

Patriots Jets Week 17 Preview, Odds, and Storylines

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The last game of the regular season has arrived. And, for the first time in a while, this one matters A LOT.

By this point, the Pats usually have a bye locked up, but depending on what happens on Sunday they could finish anywhere from the No. 1 to the No. 4 seed in the AFC this season. Therefore, they could either have: guaranteed home-field advantage throughout the playoffs; guaranteed home-field advantage for some of the playoffs; or only get to play at home just once (not to mention the fact that the last scenario would mean they would need to play a whole extra game as well).

(CBS Sports lays out all the playoff scenarios here for all you super nerds like me.)

But what it all comes down to for the Pats is this:

As long as they win, they are guaranteed to have at least one of the byes; if they lose, it’s going to be near impossible for that to happen.

Fortunately, we’re going up against a terrible New York Jets squad – who we already beat just a few weeks ago – and this time, it’s at home. Before we hop into the preview, though, here’s a look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 30, 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -13.5 (spread) / Patriots: -730 (moneyline) / 44.5 (total)

The Jets (4-11) are really bad. I know I’ve called plenty of other teams bad throughout many of my previews this year, but I really mean it this time. The Jets have won just once since the middle of October and have given up an average of 29 points per game over that same period. They are also tied for the second-worst record in the league with Oakland and San Francisco.

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Rather than continue to throw a bunch of random stats at you or talk about Jets players to watch out for (are there even any?), I’m going to do it a bit differently this time around and simply focus on a few key things I’ll be keeping an eye on from Brady and the boys on Sunday.

(Can the Offense Keep it Going?): A lot of people were shocked to see the Pats put up almost 400 yards of offense against Buffalo, the league’s No. 2 defense, last week. Much of this had to do with an insane 273-yard rushing output, as the passing offense mustered up a pathetic total of 117. Ironically, this was after two games in which the ground game struggled, failing to crack 100 yards in Weeks 15 and 16, while the passing offense averaged 308 yards. My point is there is just ZERO consistency in this offense right now besides Julian Edelman, and that’s tough to maintain heading into postseason play. Is Cordarrelle Patterson healthy and will he remain the X-factor like he was last week? Has Sony Michel rediscovered his early-season success, and is he now ready to shoulder the team throughout January? I have no idea, but it’d be nice to see some sort of sense of direction from Brady & Co. by the end of the weekend.

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All right, kid, it’s time to earn that first-round money!

(How Injured is Brady?): Everyone knows by now that Brady and the team have not been very forthcoming regarding his injured knee. The team’s always been very secretive in that respect, but I feel like they’re really hiding something this time around. At times over the past few weeks, it has looked like Brady’s been operating purely off of sheer adrenaline and determination, but he’s no longer listed on the injury report and he insists he’s not hurt. Really, Tommy? Prove that to me this Sunday.

(Can the Secondary/Pass-Coverage Finish Strong?): Again, it’s really hard to pick out a “strength” for the Jets, but if it’s anywhere it’s probably in the passing game. Robby Anderson has averaged 104 receiving yards over the past three games, with a touchdown in each contest, as the young wide receiver is having a bit of a late-season resurgence. Chris Herndon has also sneakily been one of the game’s most consistent tight ends this season, and he put up a solid seven catches for 57 yards against the Pats when they played in November. (He also had six for 82 with a score last week against Green Bay.) Fortunately, rookie quarterback Sam Darnold will also be playing his first-ever game in Foxborough, and the Pats should handle whatever he throws at them. (Although Darnold has been excellent lately, with six touchdowns and one pick over his last three games.) Hey, I had to give the Jets something, right?

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The Jets might actually have a nice, young piece in Herndon.

(Will the Boys Behave?): I touched upon this already in my postgame notes from Monday, but the Pats have been called for an average of over eight penalties a game throughout the past five contests. Yes, that number is significantly bumped by a crazy 14 penalties against the Steelers two weeks ago. But, even when removing that game entirely, the Pats have still been responsible for almost six flags a game. That’s not good at any point in the year, but that type of stuff will sink anyone – and quickly – during postseason play.

Prediction

The Pats will absolutely wallop the Jets. I have no doubt in my mind about it. With a bye on the line and playing against one of the dregs of the league, there’s just no way that we lose this one. And it won’t even be close. Kansas City will beat Oakland as well, and the Pats will head into the postseason as the No. 2 seed.

Buy or Sell: Tom Brady’s Plans to “Not only Play Next Year, but Beyond That”

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As he does every week, Tom Brady spoke with his buddy Jim Gray of Westwood One on Monday – which also just so happened to be Christmas Eve – and gave Patriots fans what many of them may blindly believe to be the greatest gift they’ll receive this holiday season: his renewed commitment to playing for the long term.

When asked if he’d be playing next season, at the ripe age of 42, Brady said:

“I absolutely believe I will. I know I’ve talked about it for a long time: I have goals to not only play next year, but beyond that. I’m going to try to do it as best I possibly can. I’m going to give it everything I have, like I always have.”

In a vacuum, that quote sounds great. The winningest QB of all time saying that he’s not going anywhere, continuing to display the resolve of a lion refusing to give up his place as the alpha on the Serengeti? Talk about some much-needed motivation for a post-Christmas return to the office!

But, in reality, is what he said really a good thing?

Mattes! How could you??!! That’s Tom FUCKIN’ Brady! The G.O.A.T! The greatest thing to ever happen to the Pats, and possibly New England as a whole! SHAME! SHAME! SHAME!

Look, I’m not denying any of those things. Brady is arguably the greatest athlete in Boston sports history, and for all that he’s done he does deserve the chance to at least try to play as long as he possibly can.

However, the Pats cannot continue to blindly place all of their confidence in Brady’s determination and bravado, completely ignoring the fact that this is man who has already far exceeded the shelf life of most NFL quarterbacks. Yes, what he’s done so far is pretty damn impressive, but let’s also not forget that Brady is indeed still a human being.

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OK, mayyybeee, he’s a bit more special than most humans.

As they say, Father Time always wins, and I believe we’re finally starting to see the old man get his licks in on the legend. Sure, Brady’s 4,105 passing yards and 25 touchdowns this year are still Pro-Bowl-worthy marks, but his 11 interceptions are also the most he’s had since 2013 and are two higher than his career average (with one game still left to play).

Sure. Maybe the 11 picks aren’t all that alarming on paper, but you can’t tell me there haven’t been times this year where you haven’t looked at the T.V. going: “Really, Tommy? What the HELL was that throw?”

All I’m saying is that whether it’s due to his old age, a supposedly “minor” knee issue, or the fact that the offense is in a state of flux, Brady hasn’t looked as infallible or fluid as usual, even being just one year removed from an MVP season. And I’m sorry, but no matter how many tofu cakes he consumes or how many tomatoes he refuses to eat, he’s not going to recuperate like he used to.

So, what are you saying then, Mattes??!! Do you really think we should get rid of Brady?!

NO! Not right now at least. But if we go another offseason without so much as giving a thought to life after Brady, I’m going to be pretty heated. I’m not too upset about them passing on Lamar Jackson this year at the end of the first round, but after trading Jimmy Garoppolo, the team has nothing in terms of future QB prospects.

To be fair, not many teams are lucky enough to have a guy waiting in the wings once a legend decides – or is forced – to hang ’em up for good. But the smart teams DO at least make an effort. The Colts made the tough decision to tank and move on from Peyton Manning in order to nab Andrew Luck. The Packers picked Aaron Rodgers, knowing it would piss Brett Favre off, and while Rodgers had to wait three years to finally get his shot, the Packers barely skipped a beat. Hell, the 49ers even traded Joe Montana in favor of Steve Young, and I’d say that one worked out pretty well.

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Hopefully, this one doesn’t come back to bite the Pats down the line.

The point is that a tough decision is going to have to be made soon. And, if we’re being entirely honest, it’s probably going to come down to the team forcing the player’s hand, because at this point I doubt Brady goes anywhere until he is literally physically unable to move.

But the Pats can’t wait that long. They can’t just sit around expecting 3-5 more years of greatness and then just, I don’t know, hope for the best? Because once Brady starts to slip, it’s likely going continue rapidly, as was the case with many before him. (And, like I said, I think we’re already starting to see it.) Or, even worse, as age and body ailments continue to mount, Brady is forced to suddenly retire, against his will and good intentions, leaving the Pats with absolutely ZILCH (and likely a very looooong rebuild).

And – I hope you’re sitting down for this one – if the opportunity comes along where a team is willing to part with a hefty amount of assets in order to bring in that one piece that will take them over the top, then the Pats shouldn’t hesitate to trade Brady.

I’m not saying to simply trade the guy for a first-round pick; he deserves better than that. And I’m not saying we should necessarily do it this offseason. But what if there’s a team out there that is willing to trade multiple draft picks and, say, a top-50 player who’s still in his mid-to-late 20s in order to acquire him? Bill & Co. would be foolish to not at least consider it.

Even outside of the QB position, the Pats have a dearth of young talent on the roster, and even with Brady right now, the Patriots are not the automatic AFC champions that they used to be. And continuing to place their full confidence on Brady’s lip-service and accolades alone could come back to bite the franchise in a big way once the TB12 era is all said and done.

So, I’m happy that still you love the game, Tommy, and I know that the day you’re no longer donning a Pats uniform will truly be one of the saddest of my life. But I’m also not ignorant, and it’s time for Pats Nation to take off those Brady-colored glasses and start looking toward the future.

Patriots Bills Postgame Reaction and Quick Thoughts

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Yesterday, Red already hit you with a bit of a recap and a few postgame thoughts of his own. Now, ya boy Mattes is here to follow it up with even more reaction for the folks.

First and foremost, it’s very important to note the following: Yes, the Pats did indeed lock up the AFC East for the 1,456th time in a row (OK not really, but I’m running out of room in my closet for all these hats and T-shirts); however, they DID NOT lock up the No. 2 seed. Not quiteeeee yet. So before making plans to finally clean out the garage on Wild Card Weekend, I’d wait to see what happens next weekend against the Jets.

I’m not trying to be the turd in the punch bowl here. And as long as the Pats beat the Jets next Sunday, then the team will unquestionably head into the postseason with a bye. However, not only can the Texans still get the No. 2 seed, even after today’s heartbreaking loss to Philly, but even Baltimore can make a leap up to the second spot. No, but seriously:

For the record, I think we’ll pull it off…but we still gotta beat the Jets.

OK, now on to some reaction from this afternoon.

I won’t touch upon much of what Red already wrote here. But I will say that anyone who comes out of this one feeling “great” might need a bit of a reality check, as many of the same problems the team was facing heading into today were still painfully apparent (e.g. Brady’s knee; Gronk’s health/ability to move).

  • Compiling 273 yards on the ground in any game – let alone against a top-10 run defense – should always be applauded. Those yards also helped the Patriots control the clock, as they bested the Bills in time of possession by over 10 minutes. Those numbers are also all the more impressive and important when you consider the current state of the Patriots’ passing game. Sony Michel was solid but unspectacular, mixing in a few big runs with a consistent 3-5 yards on the majority of his other totes. But, outside of James White’s 27-yard TD run, White and Rex Burkhead were pretty lackluster on the ground. (Burkhead did have a solid four catches for 40 yards, though.)
  • Instead, it was Cordarrelle Patterson, and even Phillip Dorsett, who were responsible for for almost 29 percent of the team’s rushing yards on the day. The team finally seems like they’re picking the right spots to call those big WR sweeps – which I admittedly was not a huge fan of at first – and they could be a vital part of the offense moving forward, because the team’s going to need to get creative with the passing game looking as awful as it has.
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The big man was rumblin’ on Sunday afternoon.

  • BUT, OF COURSE, Patterson left the game and didn’t return after suffering a knee injury late in the third quarter. Hopefully, he’s OK. So far, though, all the news we have about it so far is this very “reassuring” tweet from NBC Sports’ Phil Perry:
  • And I have to once again make sure everyone realizes how incredibly good Jason McCourty has been this year. Yes, Josh Allen served him an absolute cupcake interception in the fourth quarter that anyone with a pulse would’ve had, but J-Mac, Stephon Gilmore, and J.C. Jackson – a guy we’ve been telling you about since this summer! – were all solid once again. OH, and McCourty also forced a fumble at the end of the third as the Bills were about to reach the red zone. This secondary is damn good.
  • Trey Flowers also continues to prove why he’s so underappreciated; he had no sacks on the day, but he was still everywhere on defense, finishing with five tackles and even drawing a holding penalty at one point. If he ever goes down, the D will go with him.
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Please don’t let this dude walk this spring. Open the purse, Bill!

  • Penalties continue to be a killer for this team lately. After getting called for 14 (!!!) against the Steelers last Sunday, some might think I’m overreacting to an outlier. However, the team was called for another five today, giving them 42 over their past five games alone (8.4 per game). That’s very uncharacteristic for this team, and it’s certainly not a good trend heading into postseason play.

So, again, while I’m very happy with the win, I’m definitely not heading into January with the warm and fuzzies. This team still needs some serious help to get anywhere close to Atlanta in February. A win against the Jets next week and a first-round bye would be an excellent way to start though.

Be sure to check in at the end of the week for the preview of the regular-season finale!

The Patriots Back Door Their Way Into the No. 2 Seed and a First Round Bye!

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This is why you play the game people! Are the Bills and the Jets a mere formality for the Patriots to close out the season? I hope. Of course. But the Patriots needed some outside help for the first time in a long time and old friend Nick Foles did just that as the Eagles knocked off the Texans behind his 400+ yard day. This was not a regular back door cover though as the Texans were doing everything they could to steal a W. Seriously, just look at this play from Deshaun Watson that set up the Texans TD to take the lead with less than 2 minutes to go.

Naturally I was shouting at my TV cussing out the Eagles like it was February all over again, but the enigma that is Nick Foles wasn’t ready to go home yet. Despite nearly getting his sternum broken in half by Jadeveon Clowney, he missed 1 play, came back and led the Eagles to a game winning FG.

The Patriots win coupled with the Texans loss moves New England back into the No. 2 seed and back into the driver seat as they, somehow, once again control their own destiny. LETS. GO.

Now just don’t implode against Sam Darnold and the Jets next Sunday and we’ll all be resting our ailing MCLs on Wild Card Weekend.

Lets get to a few rapid reactions from this Patriots Bills game that, despite a slow start and a less than ideal game from Tom Brady, ended up being a 24-12 blowout.

-Tom Brady did not look great. He finished the day 13/24 for 126 yards 1 TD and 2 INT, which gives him 11 on the year, his most since 2013. One of those picks came on a deflection off Gronk’s banana hands that should have been an easy catch and the other came on a miscommunication with Rex Burkhead zigging when Brady thought he was going to zag. But, he still had a lot of missed throws and generally seemed out of sync all day aside from the Edelman TD.

-Two reasons for concern moving forward though.

-I take little joy in this win in of itself because Josh Allen is AWFUL. Yes, the guy can scramble and has an absolute cannon for an arm, but the guy has worse accuracy than Tebow.

-Rob Gronkowski looked straight up old in this game. He was on the sidelines in favor of Dwayne Allen on a lot of early downs as the Pats ran the ball almost exclusively to open the game. Gronk used to be one of, if not the, best blocking tight ends in the NFL though so this is concerning. He couldn’t really get open and even when he did he was dropping bunnies.

-Josh McDaniels continues to mystify me with his shitty play calling in big spots. It obviously didn’t seriously jeopardize the Patriots’ chances of winning the game, but some of McDaniel’s play calls were real head scratchers.

A win is a win is a win though and the Patriots improve to 10-5 on the season with one game to go. Mattes will break down this game a little bit further later this week and preview next Sunday’s regular season finale against the Jets!

The 300s Podcast – Are the Patriots Cooked Without Josh Gordon?

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After an uncharacteristically bad stretch for the Patriots, Red and Big Z dive into what ails this team plus we discuss the Josh Gordon news that broke before we even finished our coffee.

-Josh Gordon had worked himself into a key cog in the New England offense so how badly does this suspension hose the Patriots?

-Is this a fatally flawed Patriots team? Whether it’s struggles playing on the road, sloppy penalties, or just poor execution this team does not look like a typical Patriots team.

-Is Tom Brady hurt? Many have speculated recently that TB12 could be dealing with an MCL injury…

-New 300s SWAG! The 300s Store is now open and you can get our designs on t shirts, hoodies, coffee mugs, stickers, flags, hell I’m buying a literal Time Lord clock that will go up behind me in the podcast studio after the holidays.

Patriots Bills Week 16 Preview, Odds, and Storylines

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So these last two Sundays have been really disheartening. (And now Josh Gordon is gone, too! Let’s just keep piling it on!)

After a shocking loss in Miami and then a shameful defeat in Pittsburgh, the Patriots (9-5) are now sitting as the No. 3 seed in the AFC. And though they’re guaranteed to finish no lower than No. 4 as a division winner, Baltimore (8-6) and the Steelers (8-5-1) remain right on their heels. On the flip side, however, the Pats still do have a chance at a bye if they win out AND Houston were to lose to either the Eagles or Jags.

Either way, we’re not typically used to seeing such uncertainty in December, as the Pats being a top-two seed is usually a foregone conclusion by now. But things are different this year; the team just suffered two-straight December losses for the first time since 2002 and are now 3-5 on the road this season.

Now we get our second matchup of the year with a surprisingly decent Buffalo Bills squad. This time it’s at home, and this time the Bills have a much more talented – albeit more inexperienced – signal-caller leading the charge than they did the last time these two played just before Halloween.

But before we get into this week’s primer, here’s a look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 23, 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -13 (spread) / Patriots: -755 (moneyline) / 44.5 (total)

Winners of three of their last five contests, the Bills have far exceeded my expectations this year. That’s probably because while their offense has still been pretty terrible, coming in at No. 31 overall, their defense has been absolutely nasty. Currently sitting at No. 2 overall, the Bills D has allowed just 187.4 yards per game through the air in 2018, tops in the league, and they are also the 10th-best team against the run. And since giving up 41 points to Chicago on November 4, the Bills have only allowed just over 18 points per contest in the five games since.

On offense, the Bills are a bit of an enigma, and it all starts with rookie quarterback Josh Allen. After spending the No. 7 overall pick in this year’s draft to select him, the Bills were without Allen the first time they played the Pats this season. But since returning just after Thanksgiving, Allen is 2-2 with over 1,150 total yards and seven scores.

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Allen is proving all the doubters wrong lately with his moxie and strong play.

Notice, though, that I said “total” yards; over 30 percent of those yards have actually come on the ground for Allen – with two 100-plus-yard rushing games – and he’s only completed 50 percent of his passes since making his return. So Allen can be a bit of a conundrum; while he won’t hurt you much in the air just yet, he does have the ability to do some damage with his legs.

The Pats have actually done a great job of containing mobile QBs this year; outside of the 81 rushing yards they gave up to Mitchell Trubisky out in Chicago, they’ve held others like Deshaun Watson (40), Patrick Mahomes (9), and Marcus Mariota (21) to relatively low numbers on the ground. Still, the Pats continue to be horrendous against the run overall, allowing opponents to average 5.0 yards per carry on the season and coming off of two straight in which they’ve given up over 150 yards on the ground. Allen, along with running back LeSean McCoy, who is expected back after missing last week’s game, could put up some serious rushing totals in Foxborough on Sunday.

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I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: do not sleep on this dude.

Fortunately, the Pats should be able to shut down the Bills air game with ease. As I said, Allen still has quite a ways to go as a passer, and besides this Robert Foster kid – who has come out of NOWHERE with three 100-plus-yard games (!) in the last month – the Bills have absolutely nothing at receiver. (No, really, it’s kinda sad.) The Pats also have a pretty stout secondary, and there’s the fact that a rookie QB has never beaten Belichick in Foxborough in the month of December.

All I’m saying is that Allen better put on his PF Flyers if he wants any chance of having success on Sunday.

Storylines

(What Does the Offense Do Now?): Things are looking pretty bleak for the offense right now. After a fool’s gold performance in Miami two weeks ago, Gronk went right back to looking worn out and put up a dud against the Steelers. Brady also looks off – and has for weeks – and now there’s speculation he might legitimately be hurt. Sony Michel has cooled off significantly after a hot start to his career, with James White and Rex Burkhead not really doing much behind him either. And today we find out that the Josh Gordon Experience is over in Foxborough, suddenly leaving the Pats without a true No. 1 outside receiver. Considering there’s two weeks left of regular-season play, they need to figure it out fast, and it all starts this week against one of the game’s top defensive units.

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Yeah, Gronk, I agree. That’s pretty much exactly how I’ve been looking at my T.V. these past few Sundays.

(Will This Team Ever Stop the Run?): As mentioned above, the Pats have been one of the absolute worst teams against the run this year. They’ve given up over 115 rushing yards to four of their last six opponents (including three games in which they gave up over 150!). Dalvin Cook would’ve made it five-out-of-six if the Vikings didn’t stop giving him the ball a few weeks ago after he racked up over 90 rushing yards on just nine carries. So not only do I fear that the offense won’t be able to keep up in the playoffs, but the unit won’t even have a chance to get on the field if the Pats’ opponents can simply just run the clock out on them. This week is their last chance to prove their worth against the league’s ninth-ranked rushing offense.

Prediction

I know this preview seems a bit “doom and gloom,” but, come on, can you blame me? After these past two weeks? Also, I’m supposed to have confidence that this offense, in its current state, will blow doors on the second-best defense in the league? Furthermore, the Bills solid running game might actually allow them to hang around and dictate the pace of the contest. These Bills are also tough and pretty resilient; each of their past four games were decided by four points or less. The ONLY reason I am picking the Pats to win this week is because it’s in Foxborough, but it won’t be pretty. The Pats take it 21-17.

Josh Gordon Reportedly Facing Another Suspension; Stepping Away from the Patriots

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Welp that only took 11 weeks. Just when the Patriots are rolling and firing on all cylinders too. Oh wait no the team has lost two in a row for the second time this season and looks increasingly like a team in free fall ready for a Wild Card weekend exit. Ideal time for Josh Gordon to get busted once again for a to be determined drug offense.

Hopefully Gordon gets the help he needs because you need to be jonesing bad to continuously throw away opportunities to play in the National Football League. Going into the can on the Browns is one thing, but to blow a golden opportunity to be the No. 1 receiver for the New England Patriots is unbelievable. This could in all likelihood be the last we see of Josh Gordon in the NFL and thats a real shame because after watching him firsthand for the past several weeks the guy’s talent is undeniable.

This really, really hoses the Patriots though. Rob Gronkowski clearly isn’t himself, Julian Edleman is definitely dealing with some kind of lingering injury, and Tom Brady may be playing on a torn MCL. Now they’ll be without Josh Gordon and will be forced to lean on guys like Cordarrelle Patterson and Phillip Dorsett! This could be the nail in the coffin that is the clusterfuck of the 2018 Patriots season.

We’ll break this whole story down further when more details become available.

Patriots Steelers Week 15 Preview, Odds, and Storylines

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This is the one we’ve all been waiting for.

While the Pats have played premiere squads like Houston, Chicago, and Minnesota this season, there’s no doubt that this weekend’s bout with the Steelers is the one that most have had marked on their calendars since September. Though Pittsburgh is in the midst of a three-game skid, they’re still one of the AFC’s most talented and dangerous squads, and these two teams always have memorable battles – often with huge playoff implications – what seems like every year now. And this year is no different.

At 7-5-1, Pittsburgh still sits atop the AFC North; their shot at a bye is likely gone, but with Baltimore nipping at their heels for the division title, they won’t be taking this one lightly.

Before we get to the preview, here’s a look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Heinz Field (Pittsburgh, PA)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 16, 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -2 (spread) / Patriots: -132 (moneyline) / 52 (total)

It’s almost surprising to see the Pats favored in this one; the fact of the matter is the Pats have been a terrible road team this year, with a 2-4 record in games outside of Gillette. On the flip side, Pittsburgh is struggling a bit when playing in the Steel City this year, as they are 3-3 at home, surprising for a team that has typically had one of the strongest home-field advantages in the league in years past. The Pats have also won five straight against the Steelers, including the playoffs, but they barely escaped with a win in Pittsburgh last December on a very controversial overturned touchdown call late in the game.

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The fallout from this play dominated the sports talk air waves for weeks last winter.

Typically built entirely upon their offense the past couple of seasons, Pittsburgh has stepped it up big time on defense this year. That is not to say their offense, currently ranked fourth overall in the league, hasn’t still been great; it’s just that they also feature the league’s sixth-ranked defense against the run and are 12th against the pass. After struggling to run the ball against Miami’s putrid front last week, I’d leave Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead on your fantasy bench this week.

With two top-seven passing offenses, as well as a future H.O.F. quarterback and a lethal 1-2 combo at wide out on both sides, expect to see an air show on Sunday. As pointed out by Rotoworld’s Rich Hribar, the Steelers have also thrown the ball over 65 percent of the time since Week 6, the highest rate in the league, and with running back James Conner still being uncertain to play this week with an ankle injury, Big Ben might be forced to chuck it even more. However, Roethlisberger also injured his ribs this past Sunday against the Raiders, and while he should still play this week he could be a bit hindered. We shall see.

(SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: James Conner is out this week. That’s good news for the Pats and their pathetic run defense [seriously, it’s been awful]. Jaylen Samuels and old friend Stevan Ridley will handle the load for Pitt in Conner’s stead.)

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It’s always a sight to behold when these two square off.

It should also be noted that Gronk was basically the reason the Pats were able to beat the Steelers last year, absolutely dominating the stat line with nine catches for 168 yards. As I’ve pointed out numerous times this year, the big fella just doesn’t look the same lately, and the Pats might not have as big of an advantage heading into this game as they did a year ago.

Fortunately, though, we still have Bill Belichick, and the Steelers have Mike Tomlin. That’s probably the biggest chip the Pats will be playing with this weekend, and there’s no doubt which team holds the leg up there.

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Be sure to stay tuned for the always entertaining Tomlin postgame presser on Sunday night.

Simply put: we’re in for a fun one on Sunday.

Storylines

To be entirely honest, it’s tough to pick which of the many different factors that will affect this game to highlight here. Due the long history between the two teams, I could probably write an entire book on them. There are such questions as: Are Brady’s (knee) and Roethlisberger’s recent “minor” health issues going to rear their ugly heads at some point?; Has Gronk finally put his long list of nagging ailments behind him?; Will James Conner play, and if so, how much?; Can Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty continue their strong play against the likes of Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster? I think I already pretty much covered most of what you need to know above. I just CANNOT WAIT for Sunday afternoon.

Prediction

This one’s almost impossible to predict, as I really feel like it could go either way. One thing’s for sure, I think Vegas got it right this week; neither team is going to come out on top by much more than a couple points, at most. Due to the Pats’ struggles when traveling this year, I’m actually giving the slight edge to Pittsburgh. Especially if the team can’t establish anything on the ground, Brady’s going to need to eat his Wheaties for breakfast that morning if he wants to keep up with the Steelers’ high-powered O. In the end, I think the Pats suffer a heartbreaker, 31-27.

Patriots Dolphins Postgame Thoughts and Quick Hits

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Yeah. Wow. I’m just as speechless as everyone else is right now. That was about the worst way imaginable to lose a game.

But, in truth, the Dolphins shouldn’t have even had the ability to win the game on that final drive. The Pats left a lot of points on the table in this one, and there were numerous mistakes and missed opportunities that allowed Miami to even have a snowball’s chance to win in the end.

TWO missed kicks from Gostkowski; an inexcusable sack taken by Brady to end the first half; a pathetic effort on the ground against a bottom-of-the-barrel run defense, which was allowing over 140 yards per game across its previous 12 contests; a dropped interception by Stephon Gilmore – each of which had a direct effect on the outcome of the nightmare we experienced on Sunday.

(Or maybe – juuuust maybe – there’s some sort of voodoo magic at play, because it’s almost becoming hard to fathom the incredible misfortune the team has had down in Miami for multiple years in a row now.)

The crazy part is, Brady actually had a great game based purely upon his stat line: 27/43, 358 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs. Also, his 37-yard touchdown pass to Cordarrelle Patterson in the second quarter was truly a thing of beauty. But, otherwise, his mind just wasn’t really in it. I honestly believe that he’s just completely in his own head whenever he plays down there, and he even admitted as much when talking about the sack he took to end the first half on MIAMI’s 9-YARD LINE – when he completely mismanaged the clock and failed to allow the team to secure what should have been, at the very least, an easy three points:

“That was a terrible play by me. That should never happen. I lost track. I thought we had one time out. We called the one, and we ran a couple plays, and I was just not thinking on third down.”

You’re right; that can’t happen there, Tommy. Even a rookie knows that.

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Even Brady couldn’t absolve himself of blame for that one.

And don’t even get me started on Gostkowski. Not only did he miss an extra point, but he also missed a 42-yarder, his fifth miss of the year. Sure, he’s been one of the league’s most productive kickers for the past 13 years, and you can do much worse. But he’s also missed some pretty big ones over that time, and often times it’s in the most inopportune of spots:

  • A shanked last-second field goal attempt in a regular season game against the Cardinals in 2012 – a game the Pats lost by two
  • A missed extra point against the Broncos in the AFC Championship in 2016, which forced the Pats to go for two late in the game; they failed, lost by two, and allowed Peyton Manning to get his second ring
  • Missed extra point in the Super Bowl against the Falcons a year later, which would have cost the game had the Pats not converted on TWO separate two-point conversions
  • A missed field goal AND a missed extra point against the Eagles in the Super bowl last year

Again, Gostkowski’s had a great career overall, but he certainly hasn’t been infallible, and he is far from “clutch.”

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You’ve done it again, Magoo!

Technically, the Pats are still the No. 2 seed in the AFC: With Kansas City’s overtime win against Baltimore yesterday, the Chiefs still sit in the top spot at 11-2; Los Angeles may have a better record than the Pats (10-3), but they play in the same division as Kansas City and can’t win a bye as a wild card; Houston, who lost to Indy yesterday, is tied with the Pats at 9-4, but the Pats beat them in Week 1 and hold the tie-breaker; and Pittsburgh all but eliminated themselves from contention with their fifth loss yesterday.

Still, Brady & Co. pretty much need to win out in order to keep their spot in the playoff pecking order.

A few more things of note from the debacle in Vice City:

  • Gronk, like Brady, may have had a solid stat line (8 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD), but he is visibly hurt, or worn down, or both, and – as I’ve noted before – we could truly be seeing the beginning of the end. Not only was he blown by and completely WHIFFED on what should have been an easy tackle on the last play, but each of his catches on Sunday were pretty much just chain-moving plays with little to no yards after the catch. The explosive, rumbling freight train we’re used to seeing is having trouble leaving the station.
  • To be fair, that last play is probably more on the coaching staff than Gronk. I disagree with Red’s take that he should have been in on that play; I get that he was in to prevent the Hail Mary play, but, I’m sorry, Tannehill wasn’t reaching the end zone from 70 freakin’ yards away. Devin McCourty – or anyone with a good pair of legs – should’ve been in there instead. Bad call there. Very bad call.
  • Shoutout to Albert McClellan for his stellar special teams play. He had two blocked punts, including one that set the Pats up for what should have been a cupcake touchdown right before halftime. Not his fault the offense couldn’t punch it in.
  • Another shoutout to Julian Edelman for being such a consistent, reliable target for Brady. He did commit one pretty bad drop, but otherwise had nine catches on 12 targets, with a score to boot. He and Josh Gordon continue to be a great 1-2 punch at wide out.
  • Danny Shelton failed to see the field again for the second straight week. It seems as though that ship has sailed.
  • One quick Dolphins/NFL note: Frank Gore might be the most disrespected and underappreciated player in NFL history. I’m not even slightly exaggerating. Many might be shocked to hear he is SIXTH all-time in terms of total yards from scrimmage, and the 35-year-old still looked explosive on Sunday – rumbling for 92 yards on just 12 carries and adding a 24-yard catch and run. The guy is one of the best ever, and most don’t even realize it.

As mentioned above, next is up what is easily the biggest and most important game of the year, especially now, against the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Sunday. As always, be sure to check in at the end of the week for our preview of the big showdown.