Patriots Chiefs AFC Championship Preview, Odds, and Predictions

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For only just the fourth time this decade, the AFC Championship will not be held at Gillette Stadium. And, for the very first time ever, the game will be held at legendary Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City – long said to be one of the loudest, craziest, and toughest venues to play in throughout the entire NFL.

Some are also saying it could be a symbolic changing of the guard were the Chiefs to win, as 41-year-old Tom Brady – the man, the myth, the legend, the G.O.A.T. – is set to square off against 23-year-old NFL phenom Patrick Mahomes – the young hotshot (and likely MVP) who posted 5,097 passing yards and 50 touchdowns in his first year as a starter. Perhaps not since a young Tom Brady has a signal-caller burst onto the scene so quickly and with such force, and now they’re set to face each other for a chance to win a title. How poetic.

The game will also feature two top-five offenses, which both averaged well over 3.5 touchdowns per game in 2018 and are loaded at pretty much every position on that side of the ball.

On defense, it’s a bit of a different story. Both teams finished in the bottom third of the league in total defense this season, even though the Pats have given up six less points per game. This, coupled with the explosive offenses on both sides, might lead many to believe we’re in for a shootout; however, most reports are predicting single-digit temperatures at kickoff, which is obviously going to affect both teams’ ability to move the ball.

This one is gonna be fun.

Before we get into the preview, here’s a look at when, where, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Jan. 20, 6:40 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: +3 (spread) / Patriots: +145 (moneyline) / 55.5 (total)

For the first time this season, the Patriots actually have a plus sign in front of the spread on their side of the line; that’s because this is the first time, in 17 games this season, that the Pats are the underdog. It is not the first time they’ve ever been a dog in the postseason; in fact, it has happened seven times during the Brady/Belichick era. But most of those games came early on in the run, during TB12’s younger days, as the Pats have been the favorite all but ONCE in their other playoff games since 2006. It’s important to note, though, that the team is 1-4 in their last five road playoff games.

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Things didn’t go so well the last time the Pats played on the road in January.

But rather than continue to get caught up in numbers and past history, let’s instead take a look at who these two teams are this season.

Again, while I did say last week that Los Angeles might have the most talented roster from top to bottom in the AFC, there’s no doubt that Kansas City’s offense is simply unmatched. Anyone who’s paid attention at all to the NFL this year knows just how prolific Mahomes has been, but the Chiefs also feature three other First Team All-Pros on offense (four in total, including Mahomes) and averaged a silly 35.3 points per game in 2018, good for third all-time.

Those other three players are wide receiver Tyreek Hill, tight end Travis Kelce, and offensive tackle Mitchell Schwartz. Hill and Kelce form perhaps the most lethal WR/TE combo in the game right now, as they both combined to total 190 catches, 2,815 yards, and 22 touchdowns on the year. (WHAT???!!!) Those numbers are truly unbelievable, in every sense of the word.

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Seriously, what a freakin’ combo these two are.

Hill also torched the Pats the last time these two teams played, in Week 6, to the tune of 142 yards and three scores. His pure speed is almost superhero-esque, as he has routinely been clocked at speeds of 20-23 miles per hour (as a human being), and no matter whether the Pats choose to bracket him or not, this man can do some damage. No matter what.

Fortunately, the Pats have been great against tight ends this season, finishing eighth in DVOA against the position. They also held Kelce to just five catches and 51 yards back in October. Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, and Duron Harmon will be tasked with keeping him at bay once again, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t with how strong they’ve played all season.

And while many would expect the Chiefs running game to have crumbled after losing Kareem Hunt, they’ve actually been just fine without him. While partly due to injury, which has kept him out the past four games, Spencer Ware has not been as effective as the team hoped in Hunt’s stead. But, Damien Williams – a former Dolphins disappointment – has been reborn in Kansas City; since Week 13, when he was finally given the chance to play meaningful minutes, the 26-year-old has averaged 5.3 yards a carry and four catches per game. He’s also coming off a 154-yard, five-catch, one-score performance against the Colts last week. So, yeah, the Chiefs can still run the ball, too.

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Williams is playing the best football of his life right now.

As pointed out in last night’s podcast, the Pats have actually put up more yards of total offense over the past six games (2,523) than the Chiefs (2,466), so there should be no doubt that they can keep up, especially against Kansas City’s lackluster defense. The only thing that can stop either side is the weather, which I do believe will be a factor.

Now, let’s get into some storylines and matchups to watch out for:

(Neutralize the Pass-Rush): For as much flak as Kansas City’s defense gets, they have a pretty good trio of pass-rushers in Justin Houston, Dee Ford, and Chris Jones. Ford (13 sacks in 2018) and Houston (a former All-Pro with nine sacks in just 12 games this year) are known commodities, but Jones exploded onto the scene this year with 15.5 QB takedowns of his own. We’ve talked at length about how good the Pats O-line has been this year, and they completely shut down Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa last week. They’ll have their hands full again in this one, though.

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Impending free agent, Dee Ford, is going to be playing for his next contract in this one.

(Another Prime Spot for Sony): I said that Sony Michel would need to have a big game last week for the Pats to win, and he did just that with 129 rushing yards and three scores. He’s a big reason why the Pats were able to dominate time of possession, and he’ll need to do that again this week to keep the ball away from Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs attack. Before last week, the Chiefs were giving up an average of 164.2 yards on the ground to opponents in the five games prior, and the rookie did have 106 yards and two scores against Kansas City in Week 6. Hopefully the kid steps up big once again on Sunday night.

(OH, and The Other Backs, Too): “Big Game James” White came to play when it mattered most once again, with 15 catches last week, tying an NFL postseason record for running backs. He’ll likely be relied upon once again to move the chains on short passes out of the backfield against a team that struggles mightily against the short-to-intermediate passing game. Rex Burkhead could also be called upon to share the load as well to keep the Chiefs guessing. Theoretically, the Patriots offense could actually run entirely through the running back corps on Sunday night, with a heavy dose of Julian Edelman sprinkled in as well – pretty much exactly the offense they ran to beat L.A. last week. (The Chiefs are also terrible against tight ends, so maybe we see good old Gronk helping out a bit as well. This is as good as spot as any for him to do so.)

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Perhaps one of the most underrated players in Patriots history, White will be called upon once again in K.C.

Prediction

It’s going to be cold, it’s going to be a battle, and it’s going to result in the Patriots going to yet another Super Bowl. Maybe it’s recency bias; maybe it’s because we got a guy named Tom Brady; or maybe it’s because I really just want it to happen. Regardless, I say the game remains close until late in the second half, when the Chiefs start to fade and Belichick out-coaches Andy Reid in the big moments with the game on the line. The Pats will take it 27-20 and head to Atlanta to try and secure ring No. 6.

The 300s Marvel Cinematic Rewind Presents: Captain America: The First Avenger

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The first time I watched Captain America: The First Avenger, I had zero expectations. I was won over by Iron Man, disappointed by The Incredible Hulk, flat out angered by Iron Man 2, and bypassed Thor altogether. Hell, I didn’t even see this movie until two weeks before The Avengers hit theaters. The Avengers hype was in full swing at this point and I was struggling to get on board. Maybe this whole MCU thing just wasn’t for me? At the time I was living in Los Angeles with some friends and all we did was watch movies during the week, so eventually this was bound to be thrown on the TV some random night. I always enjoyed the work of Chris Evans, who at the time really wasn’t in a heck of a lot. I adored Sunshine (the highly underrated sci-fi thriller) and of course who could forget his starring role as Jake Wyler in the amazing Not Another Teen Movie (you did remember that was him, right?)

Captain America: The First Avenger is set in 1940s New York City and tells the story of Steve Rogers. Rogers, a Brooklyn native, has his heart set on joining the armed forces, but is consistently shot down based on his small physique and a laundry list of health issues. He attends the Stark Expo in Queens (as seen in Iron Man 2, albeit many years earlier) with his best friend Bucky Barnes. His plan there is to try once again to sign up for the military as he thinks by doing so there they’ll be a little more lenient on who they let in. Bucky, who is ready to ship out the next day, frowns upon Rogers idea and encourages him not to keep trying to enlist under different names, which he warns is highly illegal. Rogers expresses to Bucky just how badly he wants to join and feels he could be doing so much more for his country. Overhearing this conversation is Dr. Abraham Erskine (Stanley Tucci). Dr. Erskine approaches Rogers while taking his enlistment physical and offers him a “chance” at becoming something more.

Rogers then ships off to boot camp where he meets Colonel Chester Phillips and Agent Peggy Carter (the former played by Tommy Lee Jones and the latter Hayley Atwell). Agent Carter immediately takes a liking to Rogers and motivates him along the way while Colonel Phillips sees him as wasting his time. After a brief competition to show off his determination and character as an individual (a scene incredibly reminiscent of Will Smith in the beginning of Men In Black just without all the humor, and hey! Tommy Lee Jones was in that too!) Rogers is selected by Dr. Erskine to participate in the super soldier program that he’s been working on.

Rogers is transported to a secret facility in Brooklyn where many government officials are standing by to watch the experiment take place. Rogers is injected with a serum and placed in what could only be described as a coffin-looking chamber where he evolves like a Pokemon into the Captain America we all know and love.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmWLLempSyI

Unbeknownst to everyone in attendance, a Hydra agent has infiltrated the facility and sets off an explosion, devastating the lab and killing Dr. Erskine in the process. The devastation prevents further experiments from taking place, causing Rogers to be the only one of his kind. Convenient!

Meanwhile on the other side of the pond, Red Skull, the leader of Hydra, is testing weapons based off the technology of the Tesseract, aka the Space Stone of Infinity Stone fame. He plans to overthrow Hitler and the Nazis and take over the world himself. His weapons technology has the ability to vaporize people with a single blast!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cE8hO79bsOc

After the whole ordeal at the lab, Rogers is shunned by the military as some sort of science project gone wrong. He wants to help in the fight against the Nazis, but he is instead cast as the lead in a traveling stage show who’s purpose is to sell war bonds. Rogers is forced to wear a rather garish costume, a uniform he would later adopt into his Captain America persona. Rogers feels underutilized and wishes he could be making an actual difference. Agent Carter reminds him that she believes he is meant for more.

Rogers discovers his friend Bucky and his unit have been captured inside enemy lines. Against Colonel Phillips wishes, Rogers and a platoon of men go and rescue Bucky and his guys where they run into Red Skull, who narrowly escapes.

When they arrive back at the base, Phillips is incredibly impressed with Rogers and his whole attitude towards him changes. He learns to trust him as a leader and embraces him for the super soldier that he really is. Howard Stark then provides Rogers with the notorious shield Captain America fans have come to know and love. Rogers and his team go on to assault various Hyrda bases across Europe, but when the group attacks a train transporting Zola, Red Skull’s #2 henchman, Bucky falls to his death (well, not really, but we’ll get to that at some other point).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZq-dH0ymXw

After interrogating Zola, the final Hydra base is discovered and Rogers decides to take on Red Skull once and for all. He boards a plane that contains bombs designated for various cities across the United States. In the ensuing fight, the Tesseract is damaged and a portal is opened to space where Red Skull is sucked in before it closes for good. With time running out, Rogers is forced to down the plane to save the lives of millions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nxfP0d5EVQ

Flash forward 70 something years where Rogers wakes up in a “hospital room” that turns out to be a sound stage. Naturally freaking out and feeling something is off, Rogers flees and discovers he is in the year 2012 in the middle of Times Square. Nick Fury shows up just in time for the credits to roll.

I should probably go ahead and say I absolutely love this movie. It has the strongest plot, message, and cast out of any of the Marvel films at this point. The film felt like it served an actual purpose, unlike some of its predecessors. Doesn’t hurt that it was directed by Joe Johnston, of Jumanji, Honey, I Shrunk The Kids, and October Sky fame. So what did I like?

Chris Evans

He’s perfect for this role. They took a chance casting him and as I stated earlier, he really hadn’t been in a hell of a lot up until this point. Now obviously he’ll be known as Captain America forever.

Hayley Atwell

I adore Hayley Atwell for many, many reasons.

World War II Setting

I’m a sucker for all things World War II. It was a surprise considering we all knew The Avengers was on the horizon and I wasn’t really sure how it would line up without having Cap in a nursing home. The movie did patriotism well, without going completely overboard.

Captain America as a Franchise

While the MCU as a whole is awesome, my one complaint is that nothing aside from Infinity War/Endgame feels essential. We’ve been building for 11 years to a grand finale, yet each movie comes with the knowledge that there’s always a follow up film on the schedule. We’re constantly waiting to see what happens next while not giving enough merit to what’s currently on the screen in front of us. Think about it. Iron Man as a character is deeply loved by the community that enjoys these films, yet arguably there’s really only one good Iron Man movie. The sequels felt like filler, plagued with bad writing and just enough Tony Stark banter to distract us from realizing what we were watching wasn’t that essential. The Captain America films I would argue are the strongest standalone movies in the whole universe. They advanced the plot forward, yet are good enough to watch without thinking about what’s next in the queue. They also tend to have the most crossover with other characters from the universe. I mean, let’s be real, Civil War is an Avengers movie with a different title.

Final rating: 8.0 out 10.

Next up for The 300s Marvel Cinematic Rewind, The Avengers.

 

 

#RushHourRap – Rick Ross – Everyday I’m Hustling

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Some days I bring you introspective, insightful rap music. Other days I bring you B-side tracks from some of the most popular albums that you may have forgotten about. Today? Today I bring you the one and only Ricky Rozay. It’s Thursday, the weekend isn’t quite here yet so I need something that bangs to get me through the day. Now lets go back to 2006 before everyone knew that Rick Ross was in reality about as big of a drug dealer as I am, but don’t let that phase you because Maybach Music still brings the heat THIRTEEN YEARS later.

PS – This song will never not be associated in my brain with the old Katt Williams bit. THATS MY SHIT!

The Razr is Making a Comeback as a Foldable Smartphone

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Techcrunch – Motorola has revived the Razr name a few times over the years, but the once-mighty brand has failed to regain the heights of its early days as an ultra-slim flip phone. But what better time for the phone maker’s parent Lenovo to bring back the brand in earnest as the mobile world is readying itself for a wave of foldable smartphones?

There was nothing more satisfying than snapping your Motorola Razr shut to end a call. Nothing. I remember getting the black one sophomore year of high school and it being the hottest thing in the streets since DVDs. You could use .mp3’s as ringtones, it had like a 1 pixel camera, and you could even use this wizardry called Bluetooth to send and receive files. Crazy.

It was also a simpler time because the only worry you had about your phone was your buddy texting you too much and your parents chewing you out because man those 5¢ text fees add up quick. No worries about smashing the screen or constantly checking your IG to see how many likes your last pic got, no incessant “always on” mentality. That was the biggest perk in my nostalgia book looking back.

So I am ALL for the Razr making a comeback, but do not bring it back as a smart phone. Just do what Nintendo does. Port it. Give me the same exact thing, except charge me the same price for technology thats over a decade old and I will buy it.

Get everyone off social media and in a state of constant contact. I will text you back on my flip phone when free nights and weekends kicks in and not a second sooner.

The Patriots Broke the Record for Most Wins in a Decade…Previously Held by the Patriots

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ProFootballTalk – The New England Patriots on Sunday won their 127th game since 2010, which makes this the winningest decade in NFL history. Breaking a record set by the Patriots last decade.

As noted by the Patriots’ Twitter, the previous record for most wins in a decade was 126, set by the Patriots from 2000 to 2009.

Strength of schedule. Strength of division. In-season injuries to opponents. I feel like every year opposing fans have a different excuse as to why the Pats succeeded that season, some barely tangible proof that they aren’t as good as meets the eye.

Well, through the past decade, where over at least 160 games I would think the variables involved in all 32 NFL teams’ success cancel each other out to an extent, the Patriots have won more than any other team in NFL history. Over a full ten years, they have had more success and earned more victories than any previous team in that same, long, frame of reference. They won 127 times.

O, in case you were wondering whether or not the Patriots were truly a dynasty? I mean sure someone is trying to form as argument stating that this sustained success was is sort of smoke and mirrors. I mean we did go what, 10 years between Super Bowls? Sure. But the previous most successful team decade over decade? That would also be the Patriots, of the decade prior. From 2000 through 2009, we had 126 wins. In summary, we’ve had 20 straight years of running shit in the NFL AND I CANNOT WAIT for people like poor Bobby Kravitz to call the wambulance about a guy with a video camera and a few underinflated footballs. Because I am SURE that is how we’ve logged 253 wins since George W. Bush’s presidency began.

As we enter, as we seemingly do every year, the most important week of our football fandom careers, let’s quickly reflect. For those of us old enough to remember, times weren’t always good. We had some shitty teams, man – Drew Bledsoe trying to single-handedly win despite barely being mobile enough to do a 5 step drop, Terry Allen being signed at like 40 years old as a stop gap at RB, every promising pick we made, defense or offense, either busting out or suffering some sort of freak injury. But we stood strong. Every Sunday as our Dads and Uncles and whoever would crack a beer, we’d sit on the couch and nurse an apple juice and imagine what it would be like to be the Cowboys or the 9ers, and briefly the Packers, Broncos, or Rams.

And guess what? We transcended that. We smashed through that ceiling and now have the two winningest decades in football history. No one can take that away. So as we go into this weekend, watching our boys march in Arrowhead as underdogs. The scarred, outgunned veterans against an army of fast, young warriors, remember that we’ve been playing this very same game for 20 years straight. And we usually win.

Let’s fucking go Pats nation. Let’s fucking go.

-Joey B.

13 Year Old Andy Reid Was a Freakin’ MANCHILD

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Our faithful 300s readers know that we’ve got you covered on any and all things Patriots this week, both on the field and off, leading up to Sunday’s big game.

But this one has nothing to do with the upcoming AFC Championship; rather, we’re going to take a trip back in time to a “Monday Night Football” showdown between the Rams and Washington in 1971, when current Chiefs head coach Andy Reid was but a mere 13-year-old lad.

But, you see, Reid wasn’t just any 13 year old; he was an absolute freaking BEHEMOTH who probably went on packy runs for his friends before he was even allowed to drive.

Seriously, just LOOK at the size of this “child”:

He legitimately had an entire foot and a half on all of his fellow “peers” in line behind him along with a solid 75 bills. Not only that, but no young adolescent should be able to chuck the ball over a quarter of the way down the field. Ever.

It’s not surprising to find out that Reid went on to become an offensive tackle for BYU just seven years later and then went on to serve as a college offensive line coach for over a decade, before breaking into the NFL as an assistant with the Packers in the early ’90s.

Reid has had a pretty impressive NFL coaching career that has spanned over two and a half decades, which is no easy feat. But his most noteworthy football moment of his life actually occurred before he even took the SATs.

Happy Hump Day.

This Tom Brady Bill Belichick LEGO Mural is the Most Impressive Thing I’ve Ever Seen

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Lets just point out that this was in fact made by children. This magnificent magic eye mural of LEGO artwork was made by small humans. To put that into context, I did a 100 piece Snoopy puzzle on Christmas with the family and I almost flipped the table in blind rage nine times. HOW AM I SUPPOSED TO KNOW WHICH BLUE SKY PIECE GOES WHERE??

Well done, children. Well done.

The Consistency in Which Tom Brady Makes the AFC Championship Game is Unparalleled in the Most Literal Sense of the Word

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To recap and present optically so that this can be easily digested:

Rate Category                                                                                 Percentage

-Tom Brady making the AFC Championship game                        76.5%
-NFL QB (Drew Brees) completing passes, per season                  74.4%
-Lebron James making free throws (because ESPN                       73%
is required to talk about Lebron James every story)
-Best putter in PGA between 5ft-10ft makes putt, 2018 season     68%

Let’s really let that sink in. To do that, you have to remember that every other category other than Brady’s is measured in single occurrences. A golfer putts once. The ball is only thrown once per attempt. Queen James only shoots once, and probably draws a foul from the foul line because an opposing player looked at him too aggressively.

Now think that in Brady’s category, he had to win 17 OR 18 professional football games to to work his way to a 76.5% percentage rate. Floyd Mayweather is 50-0 currently right? He beat 50 different opponents (with the exception of a couple rematches) one time on one night without ever losing. Now imagine if he had to fight 17 or 18 guys on those one nights to earn that “1” win. THAT IS FUCKING PREPOSTEROUS.

Now dig deeper and think about the times we layed eggs against the Colts and the Ravens and how this number could very well be even higher. For us, Pats Nation, that are numb to Tom Brady’s greatness and consistency; who have long since lost gratitude for the blessing of having him Quarterback our team for so long, this data puts things back in perspective. Thomas Edward Patrick Brady brings us within a hair of a championship at a more regular clip than a safe and sound golfer shielded from so much as a PEEP OF CROWD NOISE is able to tap a ball into a hole from 5ft-10ft. Brady does what he does with 300lb men trying to murder him and threats to his family and genitals being rained down upon him from the crowd.

So next time someone who has not seen a clenched fist, a field, a court, a sheet of ice, or in Max Kellerman’s case, the outside of a pilates studio, since they were 10 tried to come at the GOAT, Just remind, say, Max Kellerman that Tom Brady “dinks and dunks” his way to the AFC Championship game at a better clip than he gets shutdown by FS1 hair stylists.

LONG MAY HE REIGN.

-Joey B.