Fact #1: The Bucks (31.5) and Pelicans (29.8) are 1st and 6th, respectively in first quarter point averages this season.
Sixth Pick: Jrue Holiday O16.5 pts vs NOP (-103)
Logic: Holiday is coming off his worst shooting performance of the season against Toronto (2-14), but tonight is his first regular season return to New Orleans, who traded him this past off-season. I’m here for the revenge game narrative.
Seventh Pick: Marvin Bagley III O13.5 pts vs TOR (-110)
Fact #1: The Raptors are allowing 23 PPG to the PF position over their last seven games.
Fact #2: Bagley has eclipsed 14 points in three of his last five and put up 15 against the Raptors in their first meeting back on the 8th.
Eighth Pick: James Harden O27.5 pts vs OKC (-106)
Fact #1: You have to remind your past that you’re better since you left them.
Fact #2: Durant is out tonight.
Fact #3: Harden has 28+ in three of his seven games since joining Brooklyn.
Recap: Last Thursday looked oh, so promising until Malcolm Brogdon decided to hit his over as the game-winning 3-pter in OT against the Magic.
First Pick: Terry Rozier O17.5 pts vs IND (-120)
Fact #1: The Pacers are allowing an average of 25 PPG to the two-guard position over their last seven games.
Fact #2: Rozier has eclipsed 18 pts in four of his last six.
Second Pick: Jerami Grant O23.5 pts vs CLE (-110)
Fact #1: Grant went for 28 the first time these teams played and has eclipsed 24 pts in four of his last six.
Fact #2: The Cavs are allowing 28.5 PPG to the small forward position — the 2nd-most by any team — over their last seven games.
Third Pick: Evan Fournier O17.5 pts vs SAC (-134)
Fact #1: Fournier has eclipsed 18 points in all four games since returning from injury.
Fact #2: The Kings are allowing 27 PPG to the two-guard position over their last seven contests.
Obligatory homer picks incoming…
Fourth Pick: Kyrie Irving O24.5 pts vs ATL (-118)
Fact #1: Irving has hit this number in three of four games since Harden’s arrival
Fact #2: The Hawks allow an average of 25 PPG to the PG position over their last seven.
Fifth Pick: James Harden O9.5 assists vs ATL (+107)
Fact #1: Harden has recorded double-digit assists in five of six games since joining Brooklyn and this game should be very high-paced as the previous two matchups were.
Sixth Pick: Nets -5.5 vs ATL (-110)
Fact #1: The Nets are catching the Hawks in their third-game-in-four-nights and they struggled to get past a Kawhi and PG13-less Clippers team last night.
Seventh Pick: Bucks -2.5 1st quarter vs TOR (-108)
Fact #1: The Bucks are an NBA-best 12-4 against the 1st quarter spread this season. Yes, Toronto is 11-6, but they will be with OG Anunoby, while Siakam is a game-time decision.
First Pick: D’Angelo Russell O23.5 Pts vs ATL (-114) – win
Fact #1: Hawks are allowing 28.3 PPG to the point guard position over their last seven games.
Fact #2: Russell has reached 24+ points in four of his last five.
Second Pick: Clint Capela O14.5 Pts vs MIN (-118) – win
Fact #1: T-Wolves are allowing a league-high 28.5 PPG to the center position over their last seven games.
Fact #2: Capela has eclipsed 15+ in two straight.
Third Pick: Jerami Grant O22.5 Pts vs MIA (-115)
Fact #1: The Heat without Jimmy Butler have struggled to guard the SF position and thus have allowed 25 PPG to that position over their last seven.
Fact #2: Grant has reached 23+ points in five of his last six.
Fourth Pick: Pascal Siakam O7.5 rebs vs DAL (-114)
Fact #1: The Mavs are allowing 12 rebounds/game to the PF position over their last seven.
Fact #2: Siakam has eclipsed 8 rebounds in four of his last six.
Fifth Pick: Kevin Durant O29.5 Pts vs MIL (-122)
Fact #1: Durant has eclipsed 30 points in three of his last four.
Fact #2: Seems like KD’s over hits just about every night + having Harden on the court should afford him the same room to operate that he enjoyed with Kyrie, if not more.
Fact #1: The Pistons allow 25.9 PPG to the small forward position this season.
Fact #2: Bridges has totaled 12+ points in five of his last six contests.
Second Pick: Zion Williamson O22.5 pts vs CHA (-130)
Fact #1: Zion has outings of 24 and 29 over his past two contests.
Fact #2: The Hornets allow an average of 25 PPG to the power forward position.
Third Pick: Bucks -6 spread vs UTA (-110)
Fact #1: Third game in four nights for Utah and they have looked bad on this road trip.
Fact #2: The Bucks are averaging 127 points per game over their last three, meanwhile the Jazz have only cracked 110 once over their last five contests.
Fourth Pick: Cole Anthony O14.5 pts vs HOU (-110)
Fact #1: Markelle Fultz is out for the season with a torn ACL.
Fact #2: Anthony reportedly won’t play Fultz-like minutes, but he shouldn’t need to do so to hit this number.
Fact #3: The Rockets allow 27.8 PPG to point guards this season.
Recap: We hope Kevin Durant is okay and his over prop wins will be waiting when he gets back.
First Pick: 7:10 PM Sixers -2.5 1st quarter vs Hornets (-117)
The Logic: This is the third game in four nights for the Hornets. Yes, I know they played Philly on Saturday, but Philly ran them amuck in the first quarter and I’d expect another fast start given how the Sixers are playing right now.
Second Pick: 10:10 PM De’Aaron Fox O22.5 points vs Warriors (-134)
Fact #1: Fox has hit this mark in two of his last three and four and three of four overall.
Fact #2: Now that Chef Curry is back (62 points last night), he’ll be expending a lot of energy on offense to continue showing everyone that he takes the slander personally.
Fact #3: Most importantly, the Warriors are allowing the second-most points per game to the PG position at 31.1.
Third Pick: 8:10 PMDonte DiVincenzo O11.5 points vs Pistons (+100)
Fact #1: The Pistons allow an average of 27.1 points per contest to the 2-guard position this season.
Fact #2: Donte has 12+ points in four of six games this season. Said another way, he has hit this number in games where his team wasn’t involved in a blowout.
With so many tasty matchups on the slate, I felt compelled to sample a lot of the action.
Thursday: 1-2 (-1.17 units)
Season: 5-9 (-4.75 units)
Recap: JaVale McGee was unleashed to the tune of 1-for-9 shooting in the first quarter — that’s all you need to know about how Cavs +2.5 1st quarter went. Darius Garland came through on his point total, while I underestimated how not ready the Thunder are with their current roster.
First Pick: Hawks Team Total O119.5 vs BKN (-117)
Fact #1: The first meeting on Wednesday saw these two teams combine for 286, which went well over the closing O/U of 240.5.
Fact #2: The Hawks have eclipsed 120 points in every game following their season-opening total of 117.
Fact #3: Even with Brooklyn adjustments to the slip screens, the pace of this game should be very Big 12 football-like again.
Second Pick: Kevin Durant O27.5 points vs ATL (-110)
Fact #1: Durant has reached 28+ points three of his four games this season, including 33 against the Hawks on Wednesday.
Third Pick: Celtics -5 1st Half spread vs DET
Fact #1: Boston is 5-0 ATS in the first half this season, while Detroit is 2-2
Fact #2: Although it’s not in-his-prime Blake Griffin, he’s still a solid contributor, but he be out tonight as he continues to go through concussion protocol.
Fourth Pick: Clippers -1.5 1st Half spread vs UTA(-117)
Fact #1: The Clippers are 4-1 ATS in the first half this season compared to the Jazz who are 2-2
Fact #2: The lone loss ATS in the first half was that drubbing at the hands of the Mavs when Kawhi didn’t play
Fact #3: The Jazz played last night — granted at home — while the Clippers were resting in Utah. If PG13 and The Claw are playing, the Clippers should wear them down early.
Fifth Pick: Gordon Hayward O.18.5 points vs MEM (+101)
Fact #1: If you believe in trends like I do, then you’ll appreciate that Hayward’s point totals have been the following through four games: 28 — 12 — 28 — 11… which should the trend continue, indicates a good game on the horizon.
Fact #2: But let’s support that “outlandish claim” with supporting evidence: The Grizzlies are allowing a league-high 32.8 points per contest to the small forward position early on this season, including a 42-point thrashing at the hands Jaylen Brown just the other day.
Sixth and Seventh Picks: Donte DiVincenzo O11.5 points (-110) and O1.5 Made 3Pters (-134) vs CHI
Fact #1: DiVincenzo has hit at least three 3’s in four of five games and the fifth game featured two makes.
Fact #2: He has also scored 13+ points in four of five contests with the outlier game being a 10-point effort in Milwaukee’s uncharacteristic blowout at the hands of the Knicks (same game with only two made 3s.
Fact #3: The Bulls are allowing an average of 26 points per game to the 2-guard position early on this season.
Recap: I’ve already found a trend that I don’t like: the 3 props I’ve incorrectly picked were the result of the player’s team playing too well. On Christmas, Jrue Holiday and company had no reason to play the 4th quarter, ending at 12 points in 25 minutes. It happened on Opening Night with Joe Harris and Kawhi Leonard, too. If only I could predict the potential blowout…
First Pick: James Wiseman O12.5 Pts vs CHI(-134)
Fact #1: The Bulls are allowing 23.5 points per game to the Center position early on.
Fact #2: Wiseman broke out the 3-point shot on Christmas, which is only going to give him more shot opportunities.
Fact #3: Wiseman has posted 19 and 18 points, respectively in his first two games against Brooklyn and Milwaukee, which feature better defensive big men than Chicago.
Fact #4: Draymond Green remains out, which just gives Wiseman more looks in Golden State’s offensive sets.
Second Pick: Kyrie Irving O2.5 Made 3Ptersvs CHA(-120)
Fact #1: Irving has posted 3-pt made totals of 4 (vs GSW) and 7 (vs BOS) through two games.
Fact #2: There are no other facts. Brooklyn has the spacing right now to get any shot they want and we should ride the waves until given a reason not to.
Third Pick is a 5-pt Teaser: Nets -5.5/Bucks -7.5 (-104)
Fact #1: Both teams are catching their opponents on the second half of back-to-back sets. The Hornets lost a last-second shot against the Thunder, while the Knicks were beat by the Sixers.
Fact #2: Both of these teams have put up big point totals to start (124.0 per game an 129.5, respectively). Not having the freshest of legs, I don’t see neither the Hornets, nor the Knicks keeping up by the time this game reaches the 4th quarter.
Recap: Domantas Sabonis reminded us that PFs are going to continue to give the Knicks trouble this year and Rudy Gobert showed the world why he deserved that contract extension.It’s a nice feeling when both player props cash well before the 4th quarter.
First Christmas Pick: Jrue Holiday O16.5 points vs GSW (-120)
Fact #1: Holiday’s Bucks’ debut went well: 25 points on 10-of-16 shooting against a defensive-minded Celtics team.
Fact #2: The Warriors are not a defensive-minded team with this supporting cast around Steph, especially with Draymond being ruled out again today.
Fact #3: Warriors surrendered 26 points to Kyrie Irving in just over 25 minutes of play. Holiday’s only worry in this game is how much he plays in the second half because of the potential rout that could happen early.
Second Christmas Pick: Nets -1 1st quarter vs BOS (-110)
Fact #1: “The preseason doesn’t matter” but the Nets treated it like a real game and blitzed the Celtics out the gate prior to their season opener against Golden State.
Fact #2: The Nets were +15 in the first quarter of their season opener against the Warriors — a quarter in which Steph Curry played all 12 minutes.
Fact #3: In Boston’s season opener against Milwaukee — a solid offense in their own right, but not at Brooklyn’s level — they trailed by three after the first quarter. Boston also ranked 21st in 1st quarter scoring a season ago (26.9)
Fact #4: Kyrie is hopefully going to sage the building (again!) and the Nets are going to back him in a game that we all know he really wants to win.
Okay, so maybe the C’s didn’t get the W we were all hoping for. To be honest, if you had to pick one game the Celtics were likely to lose out of the seeding games, this was clearly the one. Yes the Bucks were without Eric Bledsoe and Pat Connaughton, but it’s not all bad. As a matter of fact, I feel pretty good about the first game back. Here’s why:
The Bucks are a great team. There’s no denying that. On the surface they don’t appear to be much more than Giannis throwing down Stretch Armstrong dunks and Kris Middleton chucking 3’s, but they are. They have great depth, plenty of shooters, they protect the rim (how many times did Tatum get stuffed at the rim? 4? 5?), and they get out fast in transition. But, despite all of that, Kemba’s minute restriction and Jayson Tatum playing the worst game of his professional career, this game was tied with 90 seconds to go. And I’m good with that.
Bearing that in mind, here are my takeaways from the game. I’ll start with the things I liked:
-Mike Breen saying BANG! -Jaylen being aggressive. I always love to see JB attacking the paint. He didn’t shoot the ball well, but he got to the line 9 times, hitting 7. -Going off that, the whole team did a good job of getting to the Free Throw line, something Celtics teams of the past have struggled at. Smart shot 8 FT’s, and the team as a whole went 27-34. That may be an off night for James Harden, but it’s good for the green. -Marcus being Marcus. Whether he’s flopping, knocking down 3’s that make me say “don’t shoot!”, or turning defense into offense, I love it all. If I had to put money on one Celtics player not missing a beat, it would be Marcus Smart. The guy is an animal and I love it. -Gordon Hayward doing a bit of everything. Gordon got off to a slow start in the first half, but he finished with 17 points, 9 boards and 6 assists. The Celtics are at their best when he contributes in every facet of the game and quietly fills the stat sheet. He did that last night. -Kemba looked unimpeded in limited minutes. His burst was there, he hit three 3’s, got to the line, and made a few nice passes. Brad has indicated that he will increase his minutes tonight, so I look forward to that.
-Not a Celtic, but Sideshow Rob-in Lopez. Man, I wish this guy was a Celtic. His game is ugly, but he’s entertaining to watch. The way he moves makes me think of some weirdly athletic combination of Sideshow Bob and Jason Segel. He knocks down 3’s with his feet together, hits post moves with arms rotating like helicopter blades, and mean mugs the entire time he’s doing it. Hilarious.
There was a lot not to like as well, with these two plays being the most obvious. Now, I have to agree with the Bucks that the second play was a block. Smart was there before contact, but he was still moving out of the restricted section when Giannis rose into his shot. That’s why it was called a block.
In my opinion, that play never should have happened because he punched Theis in the kidney a minute earlier. Wanamaker had a foul for less contact on a screen earlier in the quarter and he got called, so it’s not hard to believe the refs simply didn’t want to foul out Giannis. A minute after the first no call the block happens, the Bucks go up 3 with 90 seconds left, and that’s the game.
Some other things I didn’t like:
-Mark Jackson. -Fouling jump shooters. I think this was a product of being rusty because both teams did this early and got better as the game progressed, but please stop. -Everything about Jayson Tatum’s game. Yikes. He SUCKED. The stat sheet says he went 2-18, but that’s generous considering the first basket should actually have been credited to the Bucks when two players failed to make a rebound and knocked it in themselves. That means Tatum actually shot 1-17 (a solid 5.8%), was a team worst -13 and made one of the dumbest defensive gambles in that unnecessary reach that led to the play above. DO NOT REACH ON GIANNIS WHEN HE’S 5 FEET BEHIND THE ARC!
To reiterate what I said at the start of this post, I’m fine with the way things went. Sometimes you get calls, sometimes you don’t. The Bucks are good and this wasn’t a playoff game, so I’m not worried about it. Tatum and the rest of the team have 7 more games to find their shots, hopefully starting with the Blazers tonight. Until then, go green!
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The 300s 