Tag: MLB

Joe Kelly is the First Domino to Fall for Sox This Offseason; Signs with Dodgers

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As we pointed out on Tuesday, it’s pretty safe to say that All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel is likely to be playing elsewhere next season, and last night we learned that another bullpen piece is jumping ship as well. On Wednesday night, it was reported that setup man Joe Kelly will be joining the Los Angeles Dodgers on a three-year, $25 million deal.

To be honest, I’m not all that upset, especially considering the amount of dough L.A. is doling out to the electric but all-too-erratic 30-year-old.

While the guy has an absolutely lethal heater that can hit triple-digits and does own a respectable 3.87 career ERA, he did finish the 2018 regular season with a 4.39 mark and walked 4.4 batters per nine innings – numbers that are unacceptable for someone who was supposed to be one of the ones relied upon to hold the fort in the late innings before Kimbrel came in to shut the door.

However, Kelly was then completely untouchable in the playoffs, allowing just one run in 11.1 frames with 13 strikeouts. Unlike Kimbrel, Kelly was probably one of the top reasons the Sox were even able to win the title this year due to his incredible postseason play.

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Seriously, this dude was absolutely DIALED IN two months ago.

But again, inconsistency has always been Kelly’s most glaring issue – posting seasons with ERAs as low as 2.69 and others with ones above 4.50, including a 5.18 mark in 2016 – and maybe his performance this past October finally gave him the confidence he needed to pitch to his full potential going forward. But, with an already enormous payroll – one which the Sox are apparently focused on cutting significantly this offseason – it just didn’t make sense to take that risk at over $8 million per season.

Thanks for everything, Joe, and I’ll never forget your magical October run. Best of luck out in La La Land.

“I Would Strike Babe Ruth Out Every Time”

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ESPN – Whichever team signs free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino will have a confident pitcher. Assessing the state of today’s game on MLB’s Statcast podcast, the 33-year-old right-hander said that Babe Ruth couldn’t keep up.

“I had an argument with a coach in Triple-A about Babe Ruth’s effectiveness in today’s game,” Ottavino said. “I said, ‘Babe Ruth, with that swing, swinging that bat, I got him hitting .140 with eight homers.’

“He was like, ‘Are you nuts? Babe Ruth would hit .370 with 60 homers,’ and I’m like, ‘I would strike Babe Ruth out every time.’

“I’m not trying to disrespect him, you know, rest in peace, you know, shoutout to Babe Ruth. But it was a different game. I mean, the guy ate hot dogs and drank beer and did whatever he did. It was just a different game.”

As everyone knows, Babe Ruth is regarded as the greatest player in the history of baseball. He had a career batting average of .342 with 714 home runs and is the all-time leader in slugging % at .690 and OPS at 1.164. Pretty, pretty, pretty good.

But that was playing against guys that worked in factories and delivered milk in the morning. Not to mention he played against white guys and white guys only. Ruth retired 12 years before Jackie Robinson made his major league debut. So there are a lot of arguments to be made if you want to poke some holes in the legend that is Babe Ruth.

Babe Ruth played the cards he was dealt though and absolutely dominated the competition that was put in front of him for 22 years. Can’t knock the hustle. But if he played today?

6’2″ and north of 250 pounds? Yea that guy might struggle against hyper-specialized relievers throwing 100 mph on the black.

It’s impossible to really know how he would fare in today’s game. You know what is a much more fun argument? How would players from today fare in Babe Ruth’s era? In any sport really. Imagine LeBron James playing in the 1950s against a bunch of 5’11” dudes in short shorts? He would score 80 points a night without even breaking a sweat.

Leave it to a guy from New York who went to school in Boston to make national headlines for spitting the truth.

Craig Kimbrel and His Insane Beard Likely on the Way Out of Boston

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So it looks like there’ll be a lot less facial hair and excessive body-leaning in the ninth inning for the Sox next season. (Seriously, though, Kimbrel’s pre-pitch shtick drives me NUTS. I don’t exactly know why, but I’ve always hated it.)

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WHY, though??!!

On Monday, Sox GM Dave Dombroski issued this little nugget about the 30-year-old free agent and the likelihood of him being back in Boston next season:

OK then.

Even though this technically doesn’t mean anything for certain, Dombrowski’s always been pretty direct, and he’s typically not one to beat around the bush. His comments yesterday combined with the fact that Kimbrel is allegedly looking for a six-year deal (LOL!!!) pretty much signals the end for the bearded one’s time in The Bean.

Easily the game’s top closer for the first five years of his career in Atlanta (186 saves and a 1.43 ERA in 289 innings), Kimbrel has been a bit up-and-down since, hovering between above-average and dominant for the past four seasons, the last three of which being with the Sox.

With the Sox, Kimbrel has seen his seasonal ERA go from 3.40 to 1.43 to 2.74, further demonstrating the inconsistency he’s shown ever since leaving the Peach State. Such is the risk you take with most flamethrowers as they get older, and overall his time in Boston was likely more “good” than “bad.”

BUT there’s no denying the fact that he was atrocious this past postseason, sporting a 5.91 ERA and allowing 19 baserunners in just 10.2 innings pitched. (And this was after a season in which he sported the second-highest walk rate and the highest home-run rate of his career.) Somehow, he never technically blew a save in October, but he certainly wasn’t one of the reasons the Sox won the Series this year. In fact, he was probably one of the main reasons why they could’ve just as easily lost.

But again, I’m not trying to tear the guy down on his way out. After all, he was pretty damn good at times here, and when he’s on his game he can be downright untouchable. However, he’s not “six years” or “$16 million per year” good anymore, and I agree that it’s time to part ways.

I’m with ya on this one, Dave. Now who are we gonna get to replace him?

ESPN Will Start Sunday Night Baseball One Hour Earlier in 2019

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Yahoo – ESPN will begin broadcasting baseball games on Sunday nights an hour earlier beginning in 2019, with first pitch scheduled shortly after 7 PM EDT, Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports. Games had typically started shortly after 8 PM EDT. ESPN has not made an official announcement but is expected to do so at the Winter Meetings.

It’s about time. Baseball games take 3-4 hours these days and god forbid its a Red Sox Yankees game. I know I sound like an old man, but I’m simply just not going to stay up until 11 or 12 at night to watch a baseball game.

Who the hell is actually up watching these games besides college kids and the unemployed?

This Yahoo story cites “player rest” as the main reason for the change, which may be true but I can’t imagine one hour making that much of a difference for players. This is a move that all fans should love, unless of course you live on the West Coast, but nobody cares what you think. Support a big market franchise when it’s not the best team in the league and maybe we’ll give you a spot at the table. Until then let the East Coast worry about these things.

Baines and Smith Get the Call to the Hall

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Congratulations to Harold Baines and Lee Smith. They just received their game’s highest honor after long and distinguished careers. The National Baseball Hall of Fame is one of the most exclusive clubs in sports. Receiving the call to the Hall yesterday must have been an honor and a thrill. But if we’re being honest, it was probably also a bit of a surprise.

In his 22 seasons in Major League Baseball from 1980 to 2001, Baines led his league in an offensive category once. In 1984, Baines led the American League with a .541 slugging percentage. That’s it. He was a six-time all-star, and won a Silver Slugger award in 1989, but he never placed higher than ninth in MVP voting. He received MVP votes for only four seasons, 1982, 1983, 1984 and 1985. He never played in a World Series.

Baines certainly had an enviable career. He played in the big leagues for more than two decades and compiled some great numbers. He’s in the top 50 all time in hits (46th), total bases (43rd) and runs batted in (34th), though that’s due in large part to his longevity. He’s 20th in career games and 33rd in career at bats. Still a wildly successful career, but it’s hard to say that he was one of the all-time greats or even one of the best of his era.

That seems to be the opinion of the vast majority of the baseball writers, too. He appeared on the baseball writers’ ballot five times and never received more than 6.1% of the vote before falling off the ballot after 2011.

Lee Smith has a better Hall of Fame case. A seven-time all-star, Smith led his league in saves four times and retired as the all-time saves leader. He’s currently third on the all-time saves list behind Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera. Good company. Smith finished in the top five in Cy Young Award voting three times in the early ’90s, and posted a career ERA of 3.03 in 1022 career games, 12th most by a pitcher.

In his 18-year career, though, Smith pitched in just four playoff games. He suited up for eight teams in 18 seasons. That’s not unusual for a relief pitched, but you wouldn’t expect an all-time great to bounce around like that.

The Hall of Fame Eras Committees, formerly the Veterans Committee, should be tasked with electing to the Hall of Fame players who may have been unfairly overlooked in their time. They should not look to push in borderline candidates like Baines, Smith and Jack Morris and Alan Trammell last year, players who already had their fair shot on the writers’ ballot.

The election process isn’t perfect, but it does seem to get it right more often than not. More inductees like this from the Eras Committees will water down the baseball Hall of Fame and turn it into the basketball Hall of Fame. And if that happens, you better believe I’ll be pushing hard for Johnny Damon the next time the Today’s Game Committee meets.

 

Red Sox Have Re-signed Nathan Eovaldi

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WEEI – The Red Sox are reportedly nearing a deal with free agent right-hander Nathan Eovaldi on a four-year contract that could be worth nearly $70 million…Eovaldi, 28, was a tremendous find at the trade deadline, going 3-3 with a 3.33 ERA after arriving from Tampa, and then following it up with a dominating postseason that saw him go 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA. He delivered one of the signature performance of the playoffs, even though it ended in defeat, when he tossed six innings of three-hit relief in an 18-inning loss to the Dodgers in Game 3 of the World Series.

While the terms of the deal are still unknown, most of the big baseball writers have been speculating 4 years at $70 million, which is $17.5 per year. It might sound like a lot for a guy who was a midseason pickup that had a really strong second half and an incredible playoff run, but I’m totally on board with this move. The Red Sox needed Nathan Eovaldi for this upcoming season, but more importantly for the next few years.

The Red Sox rotation is stacked, but is also top heavy and comprised of expensive guys in contract years. Chris Sale has had his last 2 seasons start off incredible only to stumble down the stretch due to injuries and is a free agent after this upcoming season. Are the Red Sox prepared to give him a $200 Million contract? I’m not so sure. Rick Porcello is also in a walk year and while he’s had his ups and downs over the years, he will be a 30-year-old free agent with a Cy Young Award under his belt next winter so don’t expect him to come cheap. That leaves the Red Sox with David Price, who has ranged from trainwreck to solid to elite so your guess is as good as mine for what to expect, but Price is signed for the next four years at least. After that the Sox are left with Eduardo Rodriguez, who seems to miss extended time with injuries every year, and a bunch of Triple-A pitchers.

Simply put, the Sox need someone to anchor this staff alongside David Price beyond just next season.

So the Sox needed to make this move. I’m less concerned with Eovaldi’s injury history as I am with projecting future performance. Even though he’s had two Tommy John surgeries, as we’ve said here before; that’s basically a prerequisite to being a great starting pitcher these days. Alex Speier dove a little deeper on that issue:

“The idea that a two-time Tommy John recipient could be seen as something other than an extreme risk illustrates how drastically the landscape has changed over the last decade…the chief risk appears to be whether a pitcher returns to his prior level from a second Tommy John surgery. There is a survival effect. Roughly 20-25 percent of pitchers never make it back from a first or second Tommy John, but those who do appear at no greater risk than other pitchers who hadn’t undergone even a single Tommy John procedure.”

Would I be shocked to see Eovaldi’s performance regress back to the mean next year though? No I would not. But at 4 years this deal is a drop in the bucket for John Henry and the Red Sox. Dave Dombrowski loved what he saw, primarily because Eovaldi saved his bacon and the Boston bullpen en route to a World Series title. Now Dealer Dave likely smells blood and sees a ripe opportunity for the Sox to repeat (and clinch Dombrowski’s spot in the Hall of Fame) so why pinch pennies now? Welcome back to Boston, Nate.

Red Sox Top Prospect Jay Groome Back to Throwing After Tommy John Surgery

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For a Red Sox team that is suddenly pretty light on talent in the minor leagues, this is great to see. Jay Groome projects as a stud front of the line pitcher. I know, I know, I can hear Big Z groaning from here about another “top prospect.” But this is a guy who the Red Sox drafted No. 12 overall in 2016 thanks to their wild first place/last place fluctuations earlier this decade.

Projected to go in the first few picks, Groome fell to the Red Sox at No. 12 for perceived issues like signability. But he was also working out with current Red Sox ace Chris Sale last offseason so I love that.

As a 6’6″ lefty though there’s not much to dislike. Sure he’s coming back from Tommy John, but as sad as it sounds that almost seems like a prerequisite for young pitchers coming up these days. SoxProspects.com projects Groome as a No. 2-3 starter.

“Has the potential to develop into one of the top left-handed pitching prospects in baseball. Projects as a solid number three starter. Has the ceiling of a high-end number two starter. Has the build of a workhorse starting pitcher and clean, repeatable mechanics to be able to sustain 200-plus innings a year.”

I would gladly take that as the Red Sox haven’t developed a good starter since Jon Lester. Seriously, it’s bad.

“Jon Lester made his big league debut on June 10, 2006, 14 months before Clay Buchholz first scaled the mound at Fenway Park. Others have come and gone, but 10 years after Buchholz‘s arrival, he and Lester remain the only viable starters the Red Sox have developed during the 15-year stewardship of John Henry’s ownership group. No other homegrown Sox starter has logged more than 450 career innings in that time span.”

Groome has been ranked as high as the No. 23 prospect in baseball and as low as No. 85 over the past two seasons so the potential is definitely there. After getting surgery in May 2018, a return mid-season in 2019 is what I would expect, but he’s probably still a couple of years away from a Fenway debut.

The Marlins Are Replacing the Ugly Home Run Statue With Irony

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That statue perfectly encapsulates the Miami Marlins; gaudy, over priced, and out of place. It’s one I’ve written about extensively in the past.

“Did anyone else realize this sculpture that goes off after every home run cost $2.5 MILLION DOLLARS. That is fucking bananas. The sculpture that looks like Miami Vice got drunk and puked in a coy pond. The thing that looks like a mashup between the New York Mets apple in center field and the old Lets Go Fishin game.”

You knew it was going to be the first thing Derek Jeter kicked to the curb when he moved in. Derek Jeter is a man of class and sophistication. The technicolor pyrotechnic fish statue?

Not so much. So the team that had 39 of the 50 lowest attended games in baseball last year is solving their problem by adding the one thing they absolutely don’t need….more seats.

The Marlins couldn’t fill a minor league ballpark and now they’re adding even more seats? Brilliant. The absolute definition of irony. Hey, at least it’ll drive ticket prices down even further than they already are if I’m ever in southern Florida like Big Z was.

Keep doing you, Jeets.

Former Red Sox Top Prospect Yoan Moncada Likely to Switch Positions; Dombrowski Deserves Credit for This Move

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Yahoo – White Sox second baseman Yoán Moncada is “open to a position change,” according to comments made by GM Rick Hahn over the weekend. It appears to be something the club is considering as they head into their third rebuilding year, though Hahn noted that the decision would hinge on any pickups the club makes over the offseason.

It’s not the first time Hahn or Moncada has addressed the potential shift away from second base. After the 23-year-old infielder closed out his 2018 run with 21 errors and a .963 fielding percentage (eclipsed only by the Reds’ José Peraza and Red Sox’ Rafael Devers, the latter of whom committed 24 errors with a .926 fielding percentage), Hahn told reporters he believes Moncada’s athleticism will make him an “above-average defender at other positions.” Moncada himself said he’d be willing to move back to third base, a position he occupied during his rookie campaign with the Red Sox in 2016. There’s also a possibility that he could be considered at shortstop or center field, although he has yet to play either position at the major league level.

Full disclosure: I am a HUGE prospect guy. I hem and haw about every trade the Red Sox make that involves high level prospects. For better or for worse, I am very reluctant to include top prospects in a deal. Maybe it’s the Theo Epstein in me, who knows? Big Z is the exact opposite when it comes to handling prospects, but it’s what makes us different that makes us great, guys.

I think Dealer Dave has as much regard for individual prospects as a college kid has for what brand of beer he drinks, but Dombrowski deserves credit for making the right decision here.

I have been fond of beating on the drum that Dave Dombrowski primarily makes moves that any of us could make like signing the most expensive free agents in David Price and JD Martinez or trading top prospects for premiere talent like Craig Kimbrel and Chris Sale. Something that I have yet to give him credit for though is making the absolute correct decision in the Chris Sale trade.

The Red Sox coveted Chris Sale for years and the season before they finally pried him away from Chicago, reports had mentioned the White Sox wanted Mookie Betts AND Andrew Benintendi in any deal.

Obviously that didn’t happen, but when the trade was finally consummated the Red Sox and Dombrowski essentially said to Chicago we can’t give you those two guys, but we can give you our *top* prospect in Yoan Moncada, who was also the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball at the time. And again, full disclosure, I was big on Moncada so this is far from revisionist history.

Some of my commentary aged better than others…

“I feel like Costanza after he ate one of Kramer’s mangoes from Joe’s fruit shop. You want to talk about excited? How about having a player waiting in the wings that many scouts say projects to be most similar to Mike Trout…Whether he sticks at 2B remains to be seen, Pedroia is signed through 2021 so that could be a logjam issue.” – April 25, 2016

So while Chris Sale has been lights out (when healthy), it was still hard to trade away a guy as talented as Moncada. Things haven’t really gone so well for him thus far though. While still only 23 years old, Moncada has been an unmitigated disaster to put it lightly.

In 901 Plate Appearances in 211 games over parts of three seasons, Moncada is batting .234/.319/.399. That amounts to a little less than two full seasons so it’s not a huge sample size, but Moncada also led the league in strike outs last season with 217 K’s, which is alarming.

But at least he can play defense right? Well, actually he made 21 errors at second base last year, good for third in the league.

Now Chicago has publicly broached the idea of moving Moncada to another position like third base, center field or even shortstop, which makes no sense. Shortstop is a much harder position defensively with a longer throw to first. It seems like the White Sox are just looking for somewhere to plant Moncada while they shuffle some roster pieces around. It’s been reported that the White Sox are going to court Manny Machado who could play either SS or 3B and they also have another first round pick coming up in the system that apparently is a stud 2B and Moncada seems like anything but a natural second baseman.

Now just to go back to me giving Dombrowski some credit for a second; the Red Sox could have very easily traded Benintendi as part of that deal instead. So lets take a look at how Benny’s numbers stack up when compared to Moncada.

Benintendi is nearly a year older than Moncada and has a bit more experience at the major league level with 1,437 Plate Appearances over 333 games in parts of three seasons. For his career, Benintendi is slashing .282/.359/.447. The power is about even so far between the two as Benintendi wacked 16 dingers to Moncada’s 17 last season. Whether you value it or not, Benintendi also topped him in steals 21 to 12 last year. I won’t get into RBIs because thats largely dependent on the team around you, which is garbage in Chicago. In another display of power, Benintendi also bested Moncada in doubles last season 41 to 32.

Benintendi has essentially been twice as valuable to the Red Sox with a career WAR of 7.0 to Moncada’s 3.5 (3.9 to 2.0 in 2018 alone).

So it would take some serious mental gymnastics to argue that Moncada has been or remains the better prospect thus far, especially with Benintendi playing such a vital role in the playoffs for a 108 win Red Sox team.

The best prospect Chicago got in the Sale trade now seems more likely to be Michael Kopech than it is Moncada. Kopech is the No. 4 overall prospect in all of baseball on MLB.com and looks like an absolute stud in the making. Just look at his MLB.com scouting report:

“Kopech throws as hard and is as difficult to hit as any starter in the Minor Leagues, which has prompted comparisons to Noah Syndergaard. His fastball, which sits at 96-99 mph, repeatedly hits triple digits with late run that keeps it off barrels. Hitters who try to sit on his heater get embarrassed by his upper-80s slider, which features two-plane break and is a plus-plus offering at its best.

Kopech just needs some refinement before he’s ready to pitch at the front of a big league rotation.”

Butttt he only threw 14.1 innings last year as he tore his UCL and underwent Tommy John Surgery because of course he did. So as big as I am on Kopech, his timeline was obviously pushed back a couple of years with the elbow injury.

Dombrowski swung and missed on the Drew Pomeranz – Anderson Espinoza trade, but he absolutely nailed the Chris Sale – Yoan Moncada trade and to that I tip my cap.

 

Red Sox Adviser and Sabermetrics Guru Bill James in Hot Water for Saying MLB Players Are as Valuable to Baseball as Beer Vendors

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CBS Sports –  In a series of since deleted tweets, sabermetrics godfather and Red Sox special consultant Bill James responded to general criticism by agent Scott Boras, who ripped teams for tanking during the GM Meetings earlier this week. In those since-deleted tweets, James called all players replaceable (transcript via Hardball Talk):

If the players all retired tomorrow, we would replace them, the game would go on; in three years it would make no difference whatsoever. The players are NOT the game, any more than the beer vendors are.

Yikes. Bill James is the godfather of modern day baseball. He made analytics, sabermetrics and Moneyball cool. He changed the game, there’s no denying that. But he’s also been know to say some pretty outlandish shit. Like back in 2012 when he defended Joe Paterno for turning a blind eye to child rape.

“During an interview on ESPN radio, James claimed…that it wasn’t Paterno’s responsibility to report allegations of child molestation to the police… When asked if he knew anyone who had showered with a boy they were not related to, James said it was a common practice when he was growing up. “That was actually quite common in the town I grew up in. That was quite common in America 40 years ago.”

Soo yea, Bill James is all over the place. Revolutionary baseball mind? Yup. A guy that probably has a few screws loose after spending the majority of his life playing baseball in excel sheets? You bet.

I can kind of understand what he means when he says baseball is bigger than any one player; its the centuries of fandom, its listening to the game on the radio with your dad, the old adage we all root for laundry. But to flat out say that if Mookie Betts, Chris Sale, JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts and the rest of the Red Sox quit it wouldn’t make a difference?

If a high school baseball team was playing under the lights at Fenway rocking the classic white and red home unis, ya know what? That game would be unwatchable. There’s a reason minor league baseball is a niche sport in terms of spectators. Theres a reason nobody gives a shit about the CFL. Theres a reason nobody watches Boston College football. Theres a reason only degenerate gamblers watch Division II football. It’s the players. It’s the talent. If your team, league, or sport doesn’t have the best talent in the world then I’m not really interested.

Well it came as no surprise that the MLB Players Association was pretty cheesed when they heard Bill James say the players are as valuable to the game as BEER VENDORS!

MLBPA chief Tony Clark responded to James’ stunningly dense tweets with a statement Thursday morning.

“These comments Bill James made yesterday are both reckless and insulting considering our game’s history regarding the use of replacement players. The Players ARE the game. And our fans have an opportunity to enjoy the most talented baseball Players in the world every season. If these sentiments resonate beyond this one individual, then any challenges that lie ahead will be more difficult to overcome than initially anticipated.”

Not to mention, Bill James’ comments come right on the heels of Scott Boras accusing the entire league of collusion against big money free agents. So Tony Clark has every right to be bullshit here. If an employee consultant of the Boston Red Sox and someone with a vast influence as the most respected sabermatrician ever is publicly downplaying the value of the league’s players, you can imagine the conflict of interest. Maybe the GM of one team says you know what he’s right, I’ll just pay 25 beer vendors the league minimum instead and people will still show up. I mean, the Marlins tried it and they had 39 of the 50 Lowest Attended Games in baseball last year, but you get my point.

Players around the league, including the one who just won the Gold Glove for the team that employs Bill James, were less than pleased with his comments.

Even the guy who credits analytics for making him his fortune, Red Sox owner John Henry, is side stepping the bus to let his old friend Bill James take this hit on his own.

The Red Sox issued the following statement Thursday afternoon in response to James’ comments:

“Bill James is a consultant to the Red Sox. He is not an employee, nor does he speak for the club. His comments on Twitter were inappropriate and do not reflect the opinions of the Red Sox front office or its ownership group. Our Championships would not have been possible without our incredibly talented players — they are the backbone of our franchise and our industry. To insinuate otherwise is absurd.”

Live look at the Red Sox front office calling Bill James in for a meeting:

While nothing is quite as entertaining as the drama that is the NBA offseason, the MLB offseason is off to a roaring start with Bryce Harper turning down $300 Million contracts, Craig Kimbrel claiming to be the GOAT, Scott Boras blaming everyone for everything, and now Bill James is referring to real life MLB players like they’re his own personal MVP 2005 on PS2.