Tag: NFL Picks

Gridiron Tales Week 14: You Like That Edition

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Last week: 4-0

Season: 18-9

Highlight the Highs: Everything went well last week, including a Tuesday night special that saw Andy Dalton go over with his completions.

Nothing to loathe when you go 4-0!


The pick: Mike Glennon O23.5 completions (-106) vs Titans

Fact #1: The Titans defense is allowing an average of 26.2 completions per game — the most in the NFL over the past 5 weeks

Fact #2: Glennon turned 31 on Saturday, so this would be a great present to himself and over suitors

Fact #3: They’ll be playing catch-up when their defense lets Mr. Henry run all over them

The pick: Kirk Cousins O22.5 completions (-118) vs the Buccaneers

Fact 1: The Bucs have allowed an average of 31.3 completions per game over the past five weeks — the most in the NFL over this span (4 games played)

Fact #2: Tompa Bay has allowed the fewest rushing yards to RBs over this same 5-week span (233; 58.3 rush yds/game). So as great as Mr. Cook is, Tompa Bay is built to slow him down.

Fact #3: Since Week 7, Teddy “2 Gloves” (18) is the only QB not to complete at least 23 passes against Tompa Bay.

James Koh on Twitter: "PODCAST! Broncos insider @TroyRenck gives us the latest news regarding Kirk Cousins and how keeping or cutting Emmanuel Sanders/Demaryius/CJ Anderson will play a role in signing him. https://t.co/gtQRqGUdD2…

The Pick: Justin Herbert O274.5 passing yards (-129) vs ATL

Fact #1: Everyone and their mother expects Herbert to bounce back after last week’s 45-0 drubbing at the hands of new England

Fact #2: Herbert has attempted 154 passes over the past 3 games, resulting in totals of 366 (vs NYJ), 316 (@ BUF) and 209 against New England last week

Fact #3: The Falcons have allowed the 9th-fewest passing yards over the past 5 weeks for two reasons:

Reason No. 1: They’ve faced Taysom Hill twice

Reason No. 2: They’ve played four games when most have played five (bye week)

Fact #4: Herbert averages 314.8 pass yards per game at home compared to 267 on the road

The Pick: David Montgomery O67.5 rushing yards (-112) vs HOU

Fact #1: Montgomery has eclipsed 70 rushing yards in three of his last four games

Fact #2: The Texans have allowed a league-high 620 rushing yards over the last five weeks

Gridiron Tales Week 12: MNF Birds Edition

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Carson Wentz Finally Has What He's Needed All Along – Dynamic Young Wideouts – NBC10 Philadelphia

Sunday: 2-1

Season: 11-7

Highlight the Highs: Gallman took advantage of Cincy’s porous run defense, while Kirk Cousins dug himself out of a hole for a big passing day

Loathe the Lows: Daniel Jones had success passing on Cincy, but was unable to convert anything into a passing TD, which includes Evan Engram being caught inside the 5 and Darius Slayton not running full speed to track down a deep pass attempt… Oh and the hamstring injury in the second half didn’t help either.

Tonight, we have birds against birds. One team has faired well against the pass the season, while the other team is the league’s get-right pass defense for opponents.

The Pick: Carson Wentz O21.5 completions vs Seahawks (+105)

Fact #1: The Seahawks have allowed an average of 30 completions over their last 5 games

Fact #2: Piggybacking on that, Seattle has allowed the most in each of these categories over the past 5 weeks: completions (30), passing yards (1,668) and QB rushes (35).

Fact #3: Wentz has only reached 22+ completions once in his last 7 games, but the Hawks have allowed every starting QB they’ve faced not named Nick Mullens to complete at least 27 passes.

Sidebar: I know it “Hurts” to watch Wentz play this season and that his backup reportedly has a package this week, but that shouldn’t deter anyone from loving this as a get-right game for the Eagles offense.


The pick: Jalen Reagor O47.5 receiving yards vs SEA

Fact #1: Over the last 5 weeks, Seattle has allowed 105 receptions to WRs — the most in the NFL over that span — and 15 more than the next closest team (TEN)

Fact #2: Over the last 5 weeks, Seattle has allowed a league-worst 1,125 receiving yards to WRs.

Fact #3: Reagor’s snap % has increased each week since returning from injury: 73%, 88% and 93%. Couple this with 18 targets in those 3 games + Philly potentially chasing points and you have a recipe for potential Reagorbombs.

Gridiron Tales: Week 11 Thursday Night Football Edition

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Last week: 2-3
Season: 5-4

Let’s summarize what happened last week real quick.

Lone positive: Nick Chubb broke all gamblers hearts by running out of bounds and not scoring against the Texans, but for your boy, that long run cashed the over on his rushing yards prop.

Negatives: Jared Goff decided to continue to feed Josh Reynolds as much as he did Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, which meant we narrowly missed our reception totals for both players.

But like Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus say:

“Everybody makes mistakes
Everybody has those days (oh yeah)
Everybody knows what I’m talkin’ ’bout
Everybody gets that way (that’s right)”

And with that we’re onto Week 11 : Belichick voice

The pick: D.K. Metcalf Under 79.5 receiving yards

Unless there are major snowfalls or torrential downpours, I loathe unders because what’s fun about rooting for no points?! But tonight will be football at its best because we get Metcalf vs Patrick Peterson (again).

Flashback: Week 7 featured a classic that resulted in a 37-34 OT win for the Cardinals.

Fact #1: In that high-scoring affair, Metcalf was limited to 5 targets, 2 catches, 23 yards — all season lows.

Fact #2: According to NextGenStats, Peterson shadowed Metcalf on 42 of his 49 routes during that game. Metcalf recorded 1 catch for six yards on four targets with Peterson on him.

Fact #3: In 3 career meetings vs ARI, Metcalf has posted a combined total of 10 targets, 3 catches and 29 yards.

Fact #4: Metcalf has been held below 30 yards in two of his last four games (Other game: Jalen Ramsey).

Gridiron Tales: Week 10 Thursday Night Football Edition

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Last week: 3-1

It felt like a possible 4-0 week was in the cards as soon as D.J. Chark caught a 70+ yd TD pass in the opening minute of last Sunday’s contest against Houston. But Sterling Shepard wasn’t able to get the yardage total we needed, despite logging six catches.

Let’s talk about tonight: Colts at Titans

Philip Rivers O23.5 pass completions (-134)

“But why, James?!”

Fact 1: Tennessee’s pass defense has not been good over the last 5 weeks:

Passing yards allowed 1,472 4th-most

Pass TDs allowed 12 T-2nd most

Completions allowed 151 Most

To quote the kids, “That’s it; that’s the (only) fact.”

With that said, Philip Rivers has completed O23.5 passes in two of his last three with those totals being 29, 23, and 25, respectively. The Titans boast the league’s 7th-highest scoring offense this season, which lends itself to believe the Colts will need to pass a lot in this one, especially given their RBBC approach.

Bonus, just for fun: Corey Davis anytime TD (+175)


I’ll be back Sunday morning to hit you with some gems for the afternoon slate.

Gridiron Tales: NFL Week 9 Picks

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Folks, let me introduce myself. I have gone by many names: Big Game, G-Smooth, Jimmy Lips, etc. But for these exercises, I’m just the dude who researches sports information and makes educated guesses on the outcomes of player performances. There will be facts. There will be jokes. And hopefully, there will be success. 

Let’s start out west in the Raiders and Chargers game.

Justin Herbert O270.5 pass yds (-115)

Co-Rookie of the Year favorite, Justin Herbert has been money both on the field and for fantasy owners this season. He has passed for over 271 yards in five of his six starts and the only time he didn’t was in his MNF showdown in Nola, when he finished with 264.

Over the past four games, the Raiders have allowed the following passing yard totals: 

  • Josh Allen – 288
  • Patrick Mahomes – 340
  • Tom Brady – 369 
  • Baker Mayfield – 122

Context is needed for the Mayfield outlier and it should be noted that the winds were howling and it was raining the entire game last Sunday.

DJ Chark O50.5 rec yds (-112)

Jaguars WR DJ Chark was not originally going to make the cut, but sometimes you have to wait (5 days) for good things to happen. 

Texans CB Bradley Roby is out on Sunday due to disciplinary reasons. 

“So what, James?!”

Well, that’s significant because that frees up Chark to roam a bit more comfortably. You’ll recall that Davante Adams just torched the Texans in Week 7 for 13-196-2. I am in no way implying that DJ Chark doo doo doo doo doo doo is Adams, but that Week 7 performance came with Roby on the field. 

Over the past 5 weeks, the Texans have allowed just under 200 rec yds per game to WRs and the 2nd-most TDs to that position over that span (9).

Sterling Shepard O4.5 catches (-118) and O54.5 rec yds (-112)

I know what you’re thinking: “James, I don’t even know you, and yet I can tell this is a homer pick.”

Hear me out with these quick facts, though:

-Shepard has 18 targets over the past two games

-Shepard has has gone over 54 in each of those contests

-Shepard has 6+ catches in three of his four games this season

-WFT has allowed 3 WRs (Kupp, Woods & Cooper) to go over 54 yds in the last 3 gms

So this may very well be a homer pick, but it's a well-researched pick.