Tag: Saints

Russell Wilson Rumored to Be On the Trade Block and the Patriots Aren’t Even MENTIONED as a Landing Spot

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How is one of the most successful franchises in NFL history that has a gigantic, gaping hole at the quarterback position not even mentioned as a possible landing spot for an elite QB that is suddenly and unexpectedly on the trade block? Whether it was Deshaun Watson, Matthew Stafford, Carson Wentz, and now Russell Wilson the Patriots don’t seem to be in on any of them. Regardless of what you think of each and everyone of those guys, all of them have played at an MVP level yet the Pats have no interest. I know in New England we have somehow fetishized “value” and take pride in our team not overpaying for anything. Well, sometimes you need to overpay a little bit or you get stuck driving a ’95 Civic with cigarette holes in the armrests because you don’t wanna pay for a premium for a gently used 2018 SUV with leather seats.

This team has a lot of holes so understandably Bill Belichick isn’t doing cartwheels when thinking about having to trade 2-4 first rounders for a quarterback. Yes, Russell Wilson will turn 33 next season so thats a consideration as well. But the larger point to be made is there have been some solid to excellent QBs on the market this offseason and there hasn’t been a single peep about the Pats. Are they really that against overpaying to solidify the most important position in sports? Well…probably yes, considering they let Tom Brady walk out the door rather than give the man an extension and some roster input. And Tom Brady these other guys are not.

But maybe it’s something worse…has the allure of the Patriots gone out the door with TB12?

It was widely reported that Stafford specifically said he would not play in New England and we all called him a puss for it. But Adam Schefter also reported that “the Cowboys, Saints, Raiders, and Bears are the only teams Wilson would consider.” So if the Pats don’t want to dump a handful of first rounders into one position I don’t necessarily agree with it, but I understand. However, if it’s more of players simply not wanting to come here then that’s a much larger issue.

Above all else, I just would like to see some semblance of a plan from Belichick. Whether that’s going out and bringing back the prodigal son in Jimmy G, trading up in the draft to get a guy like Trey Lance, or bringing on a bridge QB like Marcus Mariota and then drafting another QB late. Something tangible to build towards. But bringing back Cam Newton on a veteran minimum contract after he threw 8 touchdowns last year is not a plan. That’s just allowing your environment to dictate your actions. It’s time to make a move.

Gridiron Tales: Week 10 Edition Pt 2

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Season total: 4-1


Thanks to my favorite “Rivers,” Philip, we enjoyed a worry-free game as the future Hall of Famer threw the rock all night long.

Let’s move ahead to today’s slate and we’ll start with what I call “low hanging fruit.” You take these apples whenever you can get them and this week’s Tree of Life comes to us in the form of the Seahawks secondary aka the tree that keeps on giving.

Cooper Kupp O6.5 receptions (+122) and Robert Woods O5.5 receptions (-104)

Prior to their bye, Kupp totaled a career-high 20 targets and a career-high-tying 11 receptions against Miami in Week 8. Woods finished with 8 targets and 7 catches. Goff threw a whopping 61 times with only 17 points to show for it.

Fact #1: The Seahawks have allowed two receivers to catch at least 8 passes in three straight games

Fact #2: According to PFF, the Seahawks have allowed the most receiving yards to slot WRs (977). The next closest team is the Browns at 694!

Fact #3: Seattle will be without top corners Shaq Griffin and Quinton Dunbar


Emmanuel Sanders O3.5 receptions (+112)

Fact #1: This is a revenge game. Sanders signed a two-year deal with Nola after not being able to come to terms with a Niners team that traded for him last season.

Fact #2: Sanders has logged 4+ catches in four straight games

Fact #3: Sanders was quoted as saying, “I want to kick their ass, and then after the game we can hug it out.”


Nick Chubb O72.5 rush yards (-112)

Fact #1: The Texans have allowed an average of 127 rush yards per game over their last four contests

Fact #2: The forecast in Cleveland calls for a repeat of what occurred in their Week 8 clash with the Raiders that featured swirling winds and rain throughout. That means fewer throws and more runs

Fact #3: Chubb reportedly will “play until he gets tired” following a 4-game absence with an MCL sprain.


Bonus Longshot Anytime TD Scorers:

Marcedes Lewis (+600): Revenge game against his old team (Jaguars)

Eric Ebron (+180): Bengals have allowed a league-high 6 TE TDs over the last five weeks


Lets Talk About What Nobody Wants to Talk About

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It’s been difficult to write much the last week while the country is gripped in protests, riots, civil unrest, and let us not forget about the coronavirus pandemic thats killed more than 100,000 people. 2020 has been the year from hell and the murder of George Floyd was the tipping point for many Americans.

In times like these we typically turn towards sports to help heal the rawest of wounds. It sounds silly, but it’s true. Sports has always been the unifying force that society uses to bring people of all different backgrounds together, if only for a couple of hours.

I’m torn on this because sports have unified people during horrific times like 9/11 and helped kickstart difficult conversations after tragedies like Eric Garner’s death, but maybe not having sports right now is for the best? Without any sports to speak of theres nothing for us to turn our attention towards. We’re all stuck at home and forced to have the difficult conversations that sometimes we’re all too quick to turn the page on.

The 24/7 news cycle never sleeps, but it seems like as a nation we’re all focusing on the same exact thing right now. We may fall on different sides of the issue, but we’re all talking about the same issue, which is how progress begins.

A lot of people are learning, and hopefully growing, in real time. Drew Brees faced the swift wrath of not just twitter, but his own teammates and peers from around the NFL after he denounced protestors kneeling during the anthem.

…and then apologized less than 24 hours later. Life comes at you fast, Drew. It was a shockingly tone deaf statement from one of the faces of the NFL. It’s been 3+ years since Colin Kaepernick started kneeling during the National Anthem to protest police brutality, but plenty of people, Drew Brees front and center, still think it’s about the military or “disrespecting the flag.”

I don’t know what kind of reaction Brees expected from these comments during what may be the height of racial tensions in my lifetime, but he has, unsurprisingly, been getting ripped by players across the league including by his own No. 1 receiver, Michael Thomas.

Malcolm Jenkins put out a heartbreaking video directly responding to Brees’ comments and effectively telling him to just shut up and listen.

The McCourty twins eviscerated Drew Brees for leaning on the military as a reason for denouncing the kneeling protestors.

Brees issued a lengthy apology this morning, less than 24 hours after his original comments, but I find it hard to believe he was this glib to begin with so the apology does ring a bit hollow. Hopefully Brees and everyone who sees this exchange use it as a learning experience.

We try to not get too political here, but after hearing the pain in the voices of some of my black friends it would be selfish to not use the minuscule platform we have here to at least say something. I’m a white guy in his thirties so I’ll never know what it’s like to be a black man in America, but one of the main things I heard from friends of mine is to simply see and acknowledge our differences. Saying you “don’t see color” is misguided because that only blinds you to the issues that people of different races experience on a daily basis. It’s important to see, and celebrate, the differences between us all. Ignoring those differences may be done with good intentions, but it takes away from our ability to use any privilege we do have to help, even if its just calling out a friend or a family member on their shit.

I’ll leave you with this video that former Eagles linebacker Emmanuel Acho put out yesterday: Uncomfortable Conversations With a Black Man

The 300s Staff NFL Bracket Update

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Back before the season started, a handful of The 300s staff made bold predictions about how this NFL season was going to shakedown. With the first round of the playoffs coming up, it’s time to check in and see how everyone is doing.

As a refresher for how the scoring works, in this round you get: 10 points for each correct playoff team, 5 points for correct seed, and 5 points for correct division winner. A perfect score would get you 220 points.

Mattes:

The Chiefs should be in that empty spot…oops

Just like everyone else, Mattes placed a little too much stock in the Browns and Jaguars. Although not everyone saw the Panthers making the playoffs, I doubt anyone thought they’d be as bad as they turned out this season. Although the Patriots are looking like anything but Super Bowl favorites at the moment, they were in a similar position last year. As we all know, the Patriots aren’t out of it until the clock strikes 0:00. Green Bay was able to sneak in for a first round bye, so although Mattes isn’t off to a perfect start, he’s still in good shape.

Total points: 90

Big Z:

Cowboys in the Super Bowl? YUCK!

Big Z may be the only person to pick against the Pats, but his bracket is full of red. Steelers in the AFC title game, Colts and Browns in the playoffs, Dem Boyz in the SUPER BOWL?! Yuck! The only thing Big Z has going for him at this point is his Super Bowl winner. Hey, at least he picked the 49ers in the playoffs.

Total points: 95

Joey Ballgame:

The Bengals? Really?

Joey Ballgame wins worst pick of the challenge. The Bengals? In the playoffs? Now, everyone in the world had a hard time picking the AFC, but that doesn’t mean a team led by Andy Dalton was going anywhere. Most people were riding high on the Browns, and Joey fell into that trap as well. Surprisingly, Joey is in pretty good shape here, with both of his SB teams and 3/4 championship teams still in it. He also picked the seeding right on 4 teams, which is better than anyone else.

Total Points: 115

Dom:

You know you messed up when you’re NFC title prediction happens in the Wild Card Round.

Just because I invented this new way to gamble doesn’t mean I’m any good at it. Red and I were the only guys to pick the Ravens in the playoffs, albeit losing to a team that’s getting a top 10 pick at next years draft. Just like Joey, I’m riding high on a Brady-Brees matchup in the Super Bowl, but since the Pats need to go through KC to get to the AFC title game and the Vikings play the Saints in the Wild Card, I’m going to have a hard time accumulating points.

Total Points: 100

Red:

Red is in surprisingly good shape here.

Last but not least, we have Red. Which is ironic, because his bracket has the least red of all. Red not only had the Ravens in the playoffs, but also was the only one to have the Seahawks in there. Even though the Eagles take on the Seahawks this weekend, Red still has a chance to get 6/8 Divisional Round teams and all 4 championship teams. However, it seems highly unlikely that the Eagles and Texans make it past the second round.

Total Points: 110

As you can see, these brackets are a huge challenge, especially in the NFL. Nobody had the Ravens or 49ers getting past the first round of the playoffs. The Browns, Jaguars and Cowboys were all major disappointments, and all of us homers were riding a little too high on the Patriots. Over the course of a season, anything can happen. I’ll be checking back next week with another update. LFG PATRIOTS!

Drew Brees Becomes the All-Time Passing TD Leader. Until Tom Brady Passes Him Next Week and Round and Round We Go

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Drew Brees broke Peyton Manning’s record for the most (regular season) Passing TDs in NFL history with No. 540 last night. However, Tom Brady is right behind him with 538 touchdowns of his own. These two guys might play until they’re both in wheel chairs just to outlast the other and hold onto the TD crown.

Luckily, Peyton already recorded his congratulatory video for Brees last year.

I’m just glad the Saints didn’t turn this milestone into another cringeworthy celebration like last year when they legit stopped an NFL game after Brees broke the Passing Yards record.

But in all seriousness congrats to Brees on standing alone atop the record book. For the next 5 days at least. Brady is just two TDs behind him so a good week from TB12 and we could be having this same conversation all over again next weekend. This is why it always seemed humorous to me that ESPN pushes these records so hard when they frequently are changing hands. Either way one of these two will finish as the all-time leader in TD throws when all is said and done.

Live look at Peyton Manning:

Michael Thomas Becomes the NFL’s Highest Paid Receiver

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I’d be completely lying and also deceiving the readers here if I didn’t confess that my first thought upon reading this was that the highest paid WR in the NFL now makes the same as a sixth man in the NBA. That’s how astronomical the contracts have become on the hardwood. But I digress from the jump.

Michael Thomas,  a fairly unheralded (2nd round pick) Wide Receiver out of Ohio State just became the NFL’s most paid receiver a mere three years into his career. This past year, the big, rangy target (6’3) caught 125 balls for over 1,400 yards and found the end zone 9 times. And it’s the catches, along with a more derived characteristic we’ll get into later, where you really see #13’s value. He rarely drops a ball that comes his way (I think he literally had three or four drops last year) and gives his gracefully aging, but aging nonetheless, QB a large, ultra-reliable target to throw the ball to.

In terms of the contract itself, Thomas’ $20,000,000 yearly average puts him above Beckham, Brown, Green, and Evans in terms of big Wide Receiver deals. Overall, all positions included, I’d guess this would put him in the top-20, above some eyebrow-raising names but below most elite QBs and some perennially nasty pass rushers. The deal includes $61,000,000 guaranteed, so going by yearly averages the Saints can consider cutting bait after three years without feeling horrible about themselves.

I don’t think they will.

That’s the beauty of Michael Thomas. Apart from the 125 catches, a 1,400/9 yearly stat line is excellent but maybe not eye popping. I believe Julio Jones had over 1,700 yards last year (to go along with his 2 TDs)(just kidding Julio). I also know, via recent fantasy football research, that a young man by the name of Tyler Lockett caught 10 TD passes last year, so Thomas’ 9, while a fantastic number, doesn’t wow you in necessarily.

But he is so. Goddam. Consistent. That is what the Saints are committing to. They are aren’t dumping a ton of money into a player who will go awwwfffff a couple of times a year for a few years. They are paying a premium for a player that will, week in and week out be one the most, consistent Wide Receivers in football. In looking at my fantasy line up from last year, I see Thomas hit:T

The 90 yard mark 6 times
The 70 yard mark 10 times
The 5 catch mark 12 times
The 10+ catch mark 4 times.

I know the scoring could improve, and I’m guessing it will, but basically he gets it done. Add this to the fact that he is a legit deep threat (remember when he torched Marcus Peters, one of the games best CBs, for a 72 yard catch and run?), he is only 26, and that off the field he’s been no trouble so far (knock on every wood) and this is the exact kind of guy I’d want my team to spend this kind of money on.

Anyway, what will be interesting to see is what this means for the next wave of talented, productive Wide Receivers. Juju Smith-Schuster (UFA in 2021) and Tyler Boyd (free agent in 2023 after his 4-year extension) are names that come to mind. Hell, if he has a bonkers year Mr. 99 in Madden, DeAndre Hopkins, could decide the deal he signed about two years ago is weak compared to his contemporary Thomas and demand that Jamal Murray money (kidding). Either way this really table sets for the next wave of skill position players.

So congrats to Michael Thomas for securing the bag. And to Drew Brees for having a top-5 target for his remaining seasons. Maybe there’s still one miracle left in Music City.

-Joey B.

NFL Divisional Round Picks

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Image result for nfl field

Many football fans will tell you that AFC/NFC Championship weekend is the best football weekend of the year, but the Divisional Round weekend is nothing to sneeze at. The best eight teams remain and there are four great games on the slate this weekend. And boy do I love professional football games on Saturday afternoons. The only way this weekend could be any better is if I were in Rhode Island. [I could’ve paid my rent betting against the Irish two weeks ago.]

With that said, here are The 300s staff picks for this weekend.

Papa Giorgio: I bet money line, so my picks are straight up.

Colts +165 The Chiefs haven’t won a home playoff game since January 8th, 1994. Enough said.
Cowboys +240 No LA team has home field advantage. Maybe the Raiders if they didn’t blow that whole scenario.
Pats -180 Never bet against the Pats, ever. A trick I learned over the years being the only anti-Pats staffer of The 300s is you bet the Pats. This way, if they win, you make money and if they lose, well, at least they’re out.
Eagles +270 Nick Foles the playoff legend.

Joey Ballgame: We have two action packed games per night over the course of the next 48 hours.

For the first time in a long time the AFC is an absolute crap shoot. Since 2001, save a year here or there, the AFC title game has been played by that year’s contender against the Patriots. This year it’s an honest to God four-team race. Possibly the most intriguing team out of the four is the Colts, who started out sluggish and now just seem to forget how to lose.

In the NFC, it for me really comes to the Saints and Philly. I think New Orleans has enough on both sides of the ball to negate the late cancellation of  Nick Foles’ vacation two years in a row.

Mattes:

Indy +4.5 / Over 54
Dallas +7 / Over 49
LA Chargers +4 / Under 48
New Orleans -8 / Under 52

Red:

Indy vs KC Its going to be a cold night with the possibility of more snow coming down so who does that benefit more? I know the Colts have developed a strong running game behind Marlon Mack over the latter part of the year, but I just don’t have a lot of faith in a dome team going out and winning in a cold, sloppy Kansas City. The Chiefs have been a high powered passing game in particular, which is the kind of offense that doesn’t typically do well in poor weather. However KC has been more of a big play offense rather than a timing based offense and are the No. 1 seed coming off a bye so I have to go with the Chiefs winning and covering the 5 point spread on Saturday.

DAL vs LAR The Rams are the No. 2 seed in the NFC and got off to a blazing 8-0 start before finishing 13-3, including 2 losses in December. The 3 losses they had this year? Philadelphia, Chicago, and New Orleans; all playoff teams. I think we see a high scoring game, but the Cowboys will lean on Ezekiel Elliot (1,434 rushing yards and another 567 receiving yards on the season) to take advantage of the Rams’ porous run defense, which allowed 5.1 yards per carry during the regular season. The Cowboys will kick the trend of playoff flameouts over the past 20 years and give us the biggest upset of the NFL playoffs thus far.

NE vs LAC We discussed this at length on The 300s Podcast the other day, but I have the Patriots winning by a FG and continuing the trend of Philip Rivers unable to top Tom Brady. Patriots won’t cover, but they’ll advance to their EIGHTH straight AFC Championship game. 

PHI vs NO The Saints have been one of the consistently best teams in the NFL this year and as impressive as the defending champs have been with their backup QB, I think this is where the legend of Nick Foles finally dies. Philadelphia won’t be able to keep up with a well rested Saints team playing at home in the dome. (-8) is a big spread though so I have the Eagles covering with the Saints winning by a TD.

Big Z:

Indy +4.5 / Over 54 This Indy team looks like it’s a team on a run with a healthy Andrew Luck. KC is a good team but with a young QB they still might be a year or two away.

Dallas +7 / Under 49 I like the ‘boys and Zeke in a grind-it-out win.

LA Chargers +4 / Under 48 As I said on the podcast I think the Pats win but it’s a tight one. Call me crazy, but I have feeling Gostkowski misses bunny tomorrow too.

Philly +8 / Over 52 I have a hard time seeing a good team getting blow out at this time of year. Saints win but it’s not a laugher. Also, gotta like the over indoors.


Unfortunate News: My Guy Reggie Bush Just Came Out as an Anti Vaxxer

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Yahoo – Now enjoying retirement following an 11-year NFL career, Reggie Bush took to Twitter on Sunday with a question he wanted his 2.88 million followers to answer: Do they believe this extremely anti-vaccine video he just found?…the 33-year-old linked to a video of a retired nurse castigating a CDC panel over its vaccine regulations and pushing the widely debunked theory that vaccines cause autism. The video has since been deleted for violating YouTube’s terms of service.

Anti vaxxers are the absolute worst. Listen if you don’t want to take scientifically proven medicine that’s fine, but don’t push that onto your kids so they can become Patient Zero in the next Polio outbreak.

The common misconception among anti vaxxers is that vaccinations don’t necessarily protect you, they protect literally everyone else around you. If you get a vaccine, it prevents you from getting polio and all sorts of weird diseases. If you don’t get a vaccine then you’re likely to 1.) get the disease and then 2.) pass on a new mutated strand of the disease that literally nobody else is vaccinated against. You’re just creating mutant strands of diseases to more easily wipe out the rest of your kids school. Smart.

I’ll let Bill Nye explain it a little more succinctly below.

It would be funny if it wasn’t so terrifying. Literally just look at recent cases in Minnesota, and North Carolina, and California where parents decided vaccines weren’t for their family and what do ya know?

“What’s sad about this – tragic, really – is that we eliminated measles from the U.S. in the year 2000, thanks to the measles vaccine. As this CDC graph shows, we’ve had fewer than 100 cases every year since.

But we had 644 cases in 27 states in 2014, the most in 20 years.”

One of my favorites was this old Kmarko headline about just how bad anti vaxxers had gotten in one California neighborhood: “Hollywood Schools Have Lower Vaccination Rates Than The Sudan Because Parents Say Vaccines “Don’t Make Instinctive Sense” – Now Everyone Has Whooping Cough”

And before you say what’s wrong with starting a friendly debate? Reggie was just trying to start a civil conversation like we all do on Twitter! Except for the fact this isn’t a debate, it hasn’t been for a long, long time.

Like Mike Leach before him, Bush took a video and tried to host a conversation with his followers about the topic, even though hosting a neutral conversation is borderline impossible when you begin with a video espousing an extreme and demonstrably false premise.

Bush, who currently works as an analyst for NFL Network, spent the next few hours retweeting and replying to followers from both sides of an argument in which every reputable scientist and doctor stands together.

In one tweet in which Bush’s beliefs are hard to ascertain, he asks one user what was the last reported case of measles or smallpox. The answer is yesterday.

Now listen I love Reggie Bush, the guy was an absolute joy to watch at USC and then at New Orleans before slowing down and playing out his days in Miami/Detroit/SF/Buffalo. But the guy was ELECTRIC. Doesn’t mean I want to get medical advice from him though. Maybe the guy who’s been getting hit in the head for the better part of the past 15 years is not the person to be handing out advice that goes directly against what the CDC recommends. Come on Reggie, be better.

At least we’ll always have the back juke highlights from USC.

Lets Gamble! NFL Week 5

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Overall Record (14-16)
Last week (9-6)

Another week, another one of the worst beats I’ve ever seen in a football game with the ending of that Kansas City game. Just ruthless. As always, all of our betting lines are courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook so blame them if the numbers change. Its that time once again to start playing fast and loose with our paychecks. Its Week 5 in the NFL, LETS GO


New England Patriots (-5.5, 55.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I picked the Pats to cover and cover they did.

Sunday, Oct. 8
1 p.m. ET

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-1.5, 39)
There’s no way you’re going to actually put money on the Browns as a favorite are you? I sure as shit am not going to. I’ll take the Jets here.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-3, 44)
Coming off their walkoff win over the Patriots, the Panthers have some momentum heading into Detroit. But the Lions are looking legit this year sitting at 3-1 in first place in the NFC North. It seems the Panthers are slowly figuring out the best way to use Christian McCaffrey with Jonathan Stewart together though so I’m taking the Panthers to cover here.

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 43.5)


Tennessee Titans (NL) at Miami Dolphins
No Line for this game, so nothing to see here.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 38)
Call me crazy, I’m taking the Bills here. I like Tyrod Taylor to have a big game against the struggling Bengals.

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants (-3.5, 44.5)
A battle of two 0-4 teams. Woof. I’ve been picking the Chargers all year and they keep disappointing so its hard to rely on them here. Giants are in the same boat, but with a fully healthy Odell Beckham I think they finally get on the board here. I’ll take the G-Men to cover.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5, 44)
Steelers are pretty big favorites at (-8.5) so thats asking a lot, but it is the Jaguars. I can definitely see Pittsburgh winning by 10. Fournette’s been solid in his first year rushing for 285 yards and 3 TDs, but Big Ben is rolling with Antonio Brown whos got 30 catches for 388 yards and a score. So I’m taking the Steelers to cover the big spread.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 45)
Eagles look like they’ve found their QB of the future with Carson Wentz and while I’m still bummed about Short Guy Hall of Famer Darren Sproles going down, Philly is still rolling along. Not a huge fan of old man Carson Palmer, especially with the non-existant run gam post David Johnson, so I’m taking the Eagles to cover.

4 p.m. ET
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 47)
You gotta be shitting me? I know the Rams are off to a 3-1 start, but I refuse to take them as favorites over the Seahawks on a (-2.5) spread. Put some respeck on Seattle’s name. I’m taking Dangeruss and the Seahawks here.


Baltimore Ravens (NL) at Oakland Raiders
Seems to be a lot of No Lines this season, soo nothing to bet on here.

 

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-2, 52.5)
Its hard to bet against the Packers, who are 3-1 on the season going against the 2-2 Cowboys. The Pack just continue to plug and play guys like Aaron Jones and not miss a beat, but I like Dallas here. Feed Zeke all night long and win by a FG, I’ll take the Boys.


Kansas City Chiefs (NL) at Houston Texans
Another game with No Line. Moving on.

Monday, Oct. 9
8:30 p.m. ET


Minnesota Vikings (NL) at Chicago Bears
No reason to watch MNF if theres No Line. Carry on.

Lets Gamble! NFL Week 4

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Week 3 was a rollercoaster with a lot of upsets that I did not see coming (I’m looking at you Denver), but Week 4 is a new day. As always, all of our betting lines are courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook so blame them if the numbers change. Its that time once again to start playing fast and loose with our paychecks. Its Week 4 in the NFL, LETS GO.

Overall Record (14-16)
Last week (6-9)

Thursday, Sept. 28
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7, 45.5)
The Bears just keep making me look bad, but I refuse to put my hard earned dollars on Mike Glennon. And I need to see back to back solid games out of Jordan Howard before I trust him. Usually the tired rhetoric about Thursday Night Football is its sloppy, the passing is out of sync and teams lean on their running game. Welp, the Rams and Niners blew that one up last week. So I’m taking the Packers to cover here.

Sunday, Oct. 1
9:30 a.m. ET (at London)
New Orleans Saints (-3, 49.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
I gotta go Saints here. I know they’ve been up and down, but I don’t know if Smokin Jay Cutler and the Dolphins have enough offensive firepower to keep up with the saints. Saints will cover.

1 p.m. ET
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-9, 48.5)
Another big spread for the Pats at (-9) which is a tricky one because the Panthers have been pretty shaky so far this year, but similar to last week against Deshaun Watson, the Pats have historically struggled against mobile QBs. I think its gonna be a game the Pats pull away, but Panthers make it respectable. I got Patriots by 10 to cover.

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5, 46)
Rams looked great last week putting up 41 points buttt that was on San Francisco. Cowboys gotta win by more than a TD here, whereas the Rams haven’t lost by more than 7 yet this season and have put up 40+ points twice already. But again the competition has been pretty mediocre (Indy, Washington, San Fran) so I’m picking the Cowboys to keep rolling and cover.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (no line)
Does Westgate have something against the Vikings? There’s no line for them for the second week in a row.

Tennessee Titans (-1.5, 44) at Houston Texans
Texans could go one of two ways in this game. Defeated and beat down after dropping a game they probably should have won to the Patriots last week or they’ll come firing out of the gates for sticking with the best team in football for 58 minutes last week. I think Deshaun Watson found his groove last week so I’m taking the Texans to cover here.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5, 39.5) at New York Jets
Bet on this game at your own risk. Jags cruised to victory last week, but they’re more of a running team these days and the Jets have a solid D-line if nothing else. Jets surprised me last week with a W over the Dolphins, but I think Fournette and the gang are too much for the Jets here. Jags cover.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 40) at Cleveland Browns
Another game I cringe to even put money on, but hey thats what leaders do, they take the ball and they bring their team down the field. Bengals shit the bed last week, but Cleveland cannot be trusted. Bengals cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 43.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Ravens had an absolutely embarrassing game last week so they should bounce back. Problem is though, so did the Steelers. After losing in OT to the goddamn Bears, I expect Big Ben and co. to smash the Ravens. Steelers cover.

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (-8, 48.5)
Bills are sneaky tied for 1st place in the AFC East and look a lot better than most people thought they would before the season. I think the Bills keep it within a score and cover.

4 p.m. ET
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 44)
This year’s Hard Knocks darlings have yet to beat anyone great yet as their first game got postponed, then they beat the Bears, and then got smoked by the Vikings last week. ODB looks healthy once again, but the Giants are 0-3 and could be reeling so I’m going with the Bucs to cover.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (-1, 47)
Despite being 0-3, the Chargers have had some bad breaks and could easily be 2-1 so I think they’re due, plus it likely will take the Eagles a little while to figure out how to best replace Darren Sproles with Smallwood and others. Chargers are due, I’m picking them to cover.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-7, 44.5)
The Niners got blown out in their opener, but then nearly beat Seattle in Week 2, which looking back now seems to have more to do with the Seahawks offensive line than anything. Then they kept it close before losing to the Rams last week. Arizona looks to rebound after an L in Dallas in which Larry Fitzgerald looked 10 years younger. Their running game is still a disaster without David Johnson, but wth Fitz and Jaron Brown stepping up in the receiving core I’m picking the Cardinals to cover.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 46.5)
This is a heavyweight matchup of AFC playoff teams and the Broncos are favored by a FG. Both teams had disappointing losses last week so everyone’s looking to get back on track. Oakland has been leaning on Marshawn Lynch here early and Denver is one of the worst teams to try and run on so I’m going with the Broncos to cover here.

8:30 p.m. ET
Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13, 41.5)
God the Colts suck, but a two TD spread is huge for a team thats been struggling offensively. As much as I want to pick the Colts, Russell Wilson looked great last week and if the Seahawks can get him out of the pocket he’ll shred the Colts D. So while I usually hate picking the favorite in huge spreads like this, Dangeruss is looking good, and the Seahawks are at home where they are loud as shit. I’ll take Seattle to cover.

Monday, Oct. 2
Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 49.5)
I’m going to continue to roll with the Chiefs who have looked awesome so far this year. Kareem Hunt is scary good and the R-words have yet to really find a groove as guys like Terrell Pryor continue to underwhelm. I got the Chiefs covering here.