Tag: Sunday Night Football

Quick Pats Bills Game Notes/Pats Packers Week 9 Preview

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Remember when the Dolphins were tied with us for first in the AFC East? LOL.

Balance has now been restored in the universe, as the Pats are once again completely in the driver’s seat in the AFC East for the 4,568th year in a row. After Monday night’s 25-6 victory over the Bills, the Pats now lead in the division by two games and soon more.

Ya boy Mattes was in NYC for the past couple of days – and I cannot even TELL you just how good it felt to be rockin’ a Sox hat around that city this week – so I was unable to get up my review of the game on Tuesday. Therefore, before getting into Sunday night’s tilt with the Packers, here are a few quick things of note from the other night in Orchard Park:

  • Even though Derek Anderson is a statue in the pocket, the pass-rush looked excellent. Trey Flowers is an absolute monster, and I will personally pay whatever I have to in order to keep him around (he’s a free agent after this season). He may not have had any sacks, but there was one first quarter sequence where Flowers completely blew up one of the Bills’ cute, little Wildcat plays (what is this? 2008?), and then on the very next play he did his best Vince Carter impression, jumping sky-high in the air to block an Anderson pass attempt. He was just everywhere on Monday night and is the unquestioned heart and soul of the defense. Adrian Clayborn, Malcolm Brown, and Kyle Van Noy, who had two sacks on the night, were also noticeably active up front as well.
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Bill, please pay this man!

  • Although Van Noy was great on Monday night, he is a complete one-trick pony: excellent pass-rusher but absolutely USELESS in coverage. Seriously, he couldn’t cover a guy using a walker. Once again the Pats were able to stop the run but were completely carved up by the receiving game out of the backfield (LeSean McCoy had six catches for 82 yards while totaling just 13 yards on 12 carries). There were rumors this week that the Pats were looking at bringing back old friend Jamie Collins, which shows that even the team knows how soft we are in terms of pass-coverage over the middle. Seriously, it’s bad.
  • We desperately need Sony Michel back. Were it not for Devin McCourty’s key pick-six in the fourth quarter, the game would’ve been a helluva lot closer than it was. Much of that had to do with the fact that the running game was absolutely non-existent. And no, Cordarrelle Patterson absolutely did not look good out there; outside of one big 22-yard run, Patterson had 16 yards on nine carries. Sure, he is a physical specimen, but truthfully for most of the night he looked like a big buck trying to find its way out of a small barn. Nice try, Bill, but please don’t ever try that little experiment ever again.
  • Jason McCourty was solid once more, and he and Patrick Chung really helped to overcompensate for the guys in front of them all game.
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After a rough summer, J-Mac is certainly proving his worth this season.

  • Just like I said, now that Julian Edelman is back and Josh Gordon is in the fold, things have opened up once again for Chris Hogan. He simply cannot be a No. 1 or 2 option, but he is still an above-average third or fourth option for Brady, and some may be surprised to hear that he actually has 190 total receiving yards over the past three games.

On to the Pats/Packers preview, which will be a bit more brief than past primers. As always, here’s a quick look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 4, 8:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBC
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -5.5 (spread)/Patriots: -235 (moneyline)/56.5 (total)

This is a game that has the NFL licking its chops: Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers in a Sunday night primetime matchup. Is that a pylon in your pants Mr. Goodell, or are you just happy to see me?

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But all joking aside, this is truly a treat. It is absolutely criminal that the two greatest quarterbacks, possibly ever but definitely in the game right now, will be squaring off for just the SECOND time ever – the last one being a 26-21 Packers victory all the way back in 2014! That is just shameful.

The debate over who is truly better will rage on in NFL circles forever. Rodgers may not have all the stats and accolades Brady’s compiled throughout his career, but he’s also seven years younger. He’s also touting a pristine 13-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio this season compared to Brady’s 16-to-7 mark, and there’s a great argument to be made that he may have had less talent around him – especially on defense – throughout his entire career. But for now, even Rodgers himself ended the debate on Tuesday, per ESPN:

“I let you guys worry about those types of conversations,” Rodgers said of any debate about which player is better. “I think that’s end-of-career conversations. … I’m just worried about winning right now. He’s got five championships, so that ends most discussions, I think.”

But enough about those two. I think even the most casual fan understands that they’re both pretty good at football.

As far as Rodgers’s receiving options go, other than No. 1 receiver Davante Adams it’s a complete crapshoot each week regarding who the other top pass-catchers will be, much to the chagrin of fantasy owners everywhere. Adams is one of the game’s very best receivers – currently fifth in the league in receiving yards per game (98.5) – and will likely match up with Stephon Gilmore. But after that it’s between the oft-injured but resilient Randall Cobb or younger guys like Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. And don’t forget about Jimmy Graham, no longer one of the game’s elite tight ends but still a decent player nonetheless.

Aaron Jones and his 6.2 yards per carry will most likely lead the way in the backfield, especially after this week’s trade of Ty Montgomery, with Jamaal Williams serving as a more-than-capable No. 2 guy. This used to be a three-headed approach, but Jones’s 86-yard and one-score performance on just 14 touches Sunday presumably solidified his spot as the top dog.

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Go get this guy on your fantasy squad immediately.

As pointed out by Joey Ballgame earlier today, the Packers feature a top-10 defense and are fifth-best against the pass (even though they did trade away star safety HaHa Clinton-Dix to Washington this week, which is certainly not insignificant). They are beatable on the ground, though, coming in at No. 22, so hopefully Sony’s back this week in what should be a great matchup for him.

Prediction

This one’s tough to gauge, as it could really be anybody’s game. Both teams feature solid, multi-pronged offensive attacks, with the Packers gaining a significant edge on defense. I feel like it’ll be a beautiful boxing match between two heavyweights that goes the full 12 rounds. In the end, though, youth wins out and the Pats fall at home 28-24.

This Green Bay Game Is Stressing Me Out and We Still Have No Clue What This Pats Team Is

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This, dear children, is the life of a Pats fan. This is what we signed up for. The crushing duality of being both the hunted and the hunter at all times, week in and week out. Most teams, and fan bases, would be pleased sitting at 6-2, first in their division, with a hard but manageable path to a playoff berth. Maybe even a playoff win, huh? Not us, and not our Patriots. Certainly not the High Triumvirate of Brady-Kraft-Belichick. No, we aspire to play in championship games and win championships. Therefore, a Week 9 game against an NFC team becomes a big, stressful to-do.

Green Bay represents a stiff challenge from a name-brand NFL foe and long-time power, and that is why this game is both important and stressful. They have an all-time great under center in Aaron Rodgers, who is smart, has a cannon of an arm, and a sometimes overwhelming ability to extend a play with his legs. The Packers also, if you have not been paying attention, have the 7th ranked D in the NFL in terms of total yards allowed. This can be a deceiving stat but still, it shows they are no slouch on that side of the ball either. So even if the Packers currently sit at a medicore 3-3-1, the Pats have to march onto the field to play a strong team with strong pieces, and a number of questions to answer in their own locker room. It’s not as much of a true test of who we are as it is a pop quiz.

To start with the offense, just who the fuck does Brady really trust throwing the ball to? His persistent praise and backing of Josh Gordon shows that he indeed desires to have a true #1 receiver, a la Cooks and Moss, in his arsenal. “Do not let this fearless freak of nature go,” thinks Tom between spoonfuls of avocado ice cream while Alex G. rubs his feet…sorry got off track. Other than Gordon, we have a still studly Edelman and RB/pass catching savage James White. Then things get interesting. Apart from those three, both in terms of production and where they sit in the Brady Trust Tree, we have a MAX 1/2 healthy Gronk, a timid Chris Hogan, and Philip Dorsett, whose rise and fall in the pecking order this year makes me wonder if he asked Giselle to sign a copy of the Swimsuit issue for him. So what is the answer here? Going up against some of the better defenses in the league down the stretch and in the playoffs Brady and Josh McDaniels CANNOT only have Edelman, a still working out the kinks Gordon, and James White to count on in the passing game. Just can’t have it. The running game I’m less worried about. Obviously Michel needs to be healthy as the team was shaky at best on the ground without him, but I think if he gets patched up and we get Barner and White cooking out of the backfield-wise, the latter depending on if we can dial 28 back in the passing game, we should be cool.

Our D is also a fucking mystery. I’ve seen quite a few folks get down on our pass rush/front 4, but check this out:

 

I’ve touched on this in a grab bag but this is something that grinds my gears with Pats critics, especially when it comes to our pass rushers. We’ve had 10+ sack guys like Chandler Jones and Mike Vrabel, we’ve had low-numbers guys who just get pressure. Currently, we’re working with the latter. Maybe our guys are not filling up the stat sheet, but we are putting QBs under pressure, forcing decisions, and capitalizing off mistakes, whether that be turnovers or regaining possession of the ball off punts. So lay off my bezerkers please.

The middle of that line has been up and down. I’ve been a Malcolm Brown stan since day 1 but him, Shelton, and Adam Butler have been Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde. Clean it up guys.

I don’t think the back half gets enough credit for being solid, albet not spectacular. They don’t seem to be asked to play traditional smash mouth, stop them at all costs defense, rather the “bend and not break and make them take 3 points” style we’ve grown accustom to. It just has become a lot more visible in this air it out age of football. Elandon Roberts continues to show he was a great snag, Hightower is Hightower, Van Noy is officially an animal, McCourty and Gilmore are studly in the secondary, and guys like Jason McCourty, Jonathan Jones, and, most recently, John Simon, have had their moments of solid play, although with ones of suckiness to go with it.

To summarize the D, who is next to step up? While our offense seems to be a trust and comfort issue, on D we just need someone to volunteer and say “I got this”. The last guy to do it was Van Noy. We need one or two more. Can Rivers or Wise start wreaking true havoc? Can the second (first in the league) McCourty twin start really locking people down? Can Simon cement himself as a go-to LB? We need someone to put their hand up.

To bring it back to the first paragraph of this rant of a mad man, none of this would matter if the Pats eternally sucked and we had no business being football fans. Year after year they play this game where they put together a great record while slowly getting themselves organized and eventually start cooking as we approach the playoffs and it it exhausting. But with Brady not being a spring chicken and our team looking more listless than normal earlier this season, I am stressed the fuck out about a 6-2 team almost 20 years into a Goddam dynasty and it STINKS. I need Brown/Shelton to be Wilfork, Simon/Roberts to be Ted Johnson, and Hogan to be Topher Playoffs (working on it) right stat now. And you know what? Wiping the floor with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers would be a great fucking start.

 

 

 

 

 

Patriots Chiefs Week 6 Game Preview, Odds, and Things to Watch For

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Two straight wins have vaulted the Pats right back up to the top of the AFC East heading into Week 6. Go ahead and smile, Pats Nation. It’s OK. But don’t get too cocky, as the SCORCHING-HOT, undefeated Kansas City Chiefs are coming to town this weekend for a Sunday night showdown.

As always, here’s a quick look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 14, 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBC
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -3.5 (spread)/Patriots: -175 (moneyline)/59.5 (total)

Just by looking at the numbers, you can see that this one is expected to be a barn burner and an absolute shoot-out. In fact, the current 59.5-point total is slated to be the second-highest over/under for any game within the last 15 years (just behind the 60-point total which closed for a game between the Chiefs and Raiders in 2003). Points are going to be scored in this one. Get ready for some major offensive firepower – on both sides.

The Chiefs currently have the league’s fourth-ranked offense and are averaging 35 points per game, which is the second-highest mark in the league behind the New Orleans Saints. The team is being led by MVP-candidate Patrick Mahomes, a second-year quarterback who was given the keys to the car this year and has rewarded Kansas City for that move with a league-leading 16 total touchdowns so far.

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Here’s Mahomes – probably getting ready to embarrass some poor defensive back in front of thousands of people.

It’s worth noting that he’s only got a five-game track record – six, if you want to include the one game he started as a rookie last year – and young signal-callers usually end up defecating all over themselves their first time playing in Foxborough. But this kid has been absolutely electric this year, and while Belichick probably has a few tricks up his sleeve to slow Mahomes down, the Pats defense just doesn’t have the talent needed to shut down a player of his caliber completely.

Mahomes’s historic season has certainly been aided by the plethora of offensive weapons at his disposal. Seriously, this offense is LOADED. Tyreek Hill is one of the league’s most explosive talents at wide receiver. Travis Kelce is the easily best tight end behind Gronk. Former first-rounder Sammy Watkins is a solid, albeit inconsistent, No. 3 option in the passing game. And Kareem Hunt – last season’s league-leading rusher – is off to another great start with 376 yards on the ground so far, good for fourth in the league. (Oddly, though, for a guy who had over 50 catches last year, Hunt is not getting the ball thrown his way anymore and has just five receptions in 2018. Mahomes has pretty much been getting it done with his wide receivers and tight ends all year.)

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Hunt (27), Hill (10), and Kelce (87) are one nasty trio.

Fortunately, the Chiefs’ defense is ranked dead-last in the NFL, and they have given up by far the most passing yards in the league. Therefore, Brady & Co. should have no trouble keeping up on the scoreboard. And while our defense doesn’t come without it’s own issues (gee, have I mentioned that before?), I have much more confidence in the Pats’ ability to stem the tide than I do the Chiefs.

Also, after coming out EN FUEGO the first few weeks, Mahomes is actually starting to come back down to earth. Over the past two weeks, he’s only thrown for one score while tossing two picks; the yards have still have still been there, though, and the team hasn’t lost, so he’s still moving the ball. However, maybe he’s not completely impossible to stop after all.

Storylines

(Can Jason McCourty Solidify His Spot in the Secondary?): After going from exciting new offseason addition to potential final-roster cut candidate and starting the season buried on the depth chart, Jason McCourty has played outstanding the past couple of weeks and seems to be quite rejuvenated. He’s truly been one of the team’s very best defenders and was all over the Colts receivers last Thursday night. Eric Rowe, who started the season as the team’s No. 2 corner, is now probably unlikely to reclaim his starting spot when he returns from injury. That is, of course, unless McCourty gets torched by Mahomes and his minions this week. This is a huge game for Jason McCourty, and I’ll be watching him very closely on Sunday night.

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You’ve been playing great lately, Jason. Don’t blow it.

(Will Chris Hogan Finally Wake Up?): There is no doubt that Hogan has been one of the team’s biggest disappointments this season. With Julian Edelman out for the first four weeks of the season and a dearth of other receiving options on the team, many expected Hogan to serve as a bona fide No. 1 wide-out for as long as needed. Except for a lucky two-touchdown game in Week 2 against the Jags, Hogan has yet to surpass 34 yards in a game this season. There’s also two games this year where he’s hauled in just one pass. To be fair, he hasn’t been getting many targets, but that probably has to do with him being unable to get any separation. I believe Hogan is much better served as a No. 2 or 3 option in an offense, and Edelman’s return should actually open more things up for him. But if he can’t get it going against Kansas City’s horrendous pass-coverage, YIKES.

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EARTH TO CHRIS HOGAN! Where ya been, bud?

(Two of the Best Minds in the Game Go Head-to-Head): I’m pretty sure by now everyone’s heard of that guy Bill Belichick and how great of a coach he is. And even the most casual of NFL fans should know about Andy Reid, now in his sixth year as head coach of the Chiefs after spending 13 years as the leading man in Philadelphia. Both men have a pretty extensive track record of success, but I’m unsure if people realize just how much of an offensive visionary Reid is. Not only are his offenses always near the top of the league each season, but he was the one who decided to go all in and draft Mahomes last season, even when most others throughout the franchise were fine sticking with Alex Smith. The guy is an offensive visionary, and this will be a fun chess match to watch between two of the game’s best and brightest.

Prediction

As I said, this one is going to be a whirlwind, with tons of yards and points galore. I do think the Pats will tame Mahomes much more than people expect, but don’t forget about Kareem Hunt and the running game; this is not a one-dimensional offense. This one could be a real boxing match, with both teams trading blows all night long. In the end, I think the Pats benefit from some home cooking and eek out a win, 33-30, with a late Stephen Gostkowski field goal.

Patriots Lions Week 3 Game Preview, Odds, and Things to Watch For

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I may have been off by about five points in terms of point differential, but I pretty much nailed last week’s game prediction. The Jags simply look like the team to beat in the AFC right now, and I am not surprised at all that Brady & Co. took an L down in the Sunshine State in Week 2.

Fortunately, the Pats have a good chance at a bounce-back game in a prime-time matchup against old friend Matt Patricia and the 0-2 Detroit Lions this Sunday – which also just so happens to be the date on which ya boy Mattes graced the world with his presence 29 years ago, so it’s only right that they’ll be victorious on such an important day.

(Also, I know everyone is all excited about Josh Gordon. Settle down; we’ll get there.)

Before we get into the game preview, here’s a quick look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Ford Field (Detroit, MI)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 23, 8:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBC (Check local listings)
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -6.5 (spread)/Patriots: -265 (moneyline)/51.5 (total)

As you can see from the 51.5-point total, which is the fourth-highest total in the league this week, this game figures to be high-scoring. Both teams have a potent offense which overcompensates for a mediocre defense that is susceptible to giving up a lot of yards and points. Basically, if you got fantasy players on either side this week, feel free to go ahead and put pretty much all of them in your starting lineup.

So, who are some of the weapons that Detroit has? Well, they’re found mostly in the receiving corps, and their success all hinges upon the play of much-maligned quarterback Matthew Stafford.

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After an abysmal Week 1 performance, during which he threw FOUR picks in a loss to the New York Jets, people were calling for Stafford’s head (including our very own Red, who has him as his fantasy signal-caller this year). However, I thought it was a bit much. For as much as he turned the ball over during his first few years in the league (four seasons with 15-plus interceptions), he has an 89:37 TD-to-INT ratio over the past four seasons, which includes 2018. He’s also one of only five players to ever throw for over 5,000 yards in a season, and I bet you didn’t know that he was the fastest quarterback ever to reach 20,000 yards, 25,000 yards, AND 30,000 yards on his career. The guy’s also coming off of a 347-yard, three-touchdown, zero-pick performance against San Francisco.

The point is: this dude can sling the rock, and the only reason he gets so much criticism is because he’s yet to win one playoff game in 11 NFL seasons. (I get it, Detroit; you’re hungry.) And with Detroit’s nasty group of receivers, coupled with the fact that the Pats have given up the fifth-most passing yards in the league through two games, Stafford could do some damage on Sunday.

Of the receivers, I expect Golden Tate to have the most success. The game’s most underappreciated slot receiver has 14 catches on a ridiculous 28 targets through two games so far as Stafford’s No. 1 guy. The Lions also have two big boys on the outside in Marvin Jones (6’2″, 198 pounds) and Kenny Golloday (6’4″, 214 pounds), both of whom use their size and unfair athleticism to gain big chunks of yards in a hurry, averaging 13.5 and 15.6 yards per catch, respectively. The Pats are definitely going to give up some real estate through the air this week – especially if either Trey Flowers and/or Patrick Chung, who both haven’t practiced this week due to being in concussion protocol, are ruled out.

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Sure, I’m excited about Gordon. But MAN, I really wish those Golden Tate trade rumors weren’t just all talk. This dude can BALL.

Fortunately, they could have success containing Detroit’s very lackluster running game. Right now, the team is using a three-pronged “attack” of Kerryon Johnson, Theo Riddick, and former Patriot LeGarrette Blount.

Riddick has been one of the Lions’ key offensive pieces for the past five seasons as the team’s third-down/pass-catching specialist. While he is not built to be any team’s primary ball-carrier, he does have 234 (!) receptions since 2014, including 14 already this season. He’s going to be targeted and used a lot.

Johnson, a rookie, is by far the most talented back of the bunch from an overall standpoint, but for some reason he has been sharing the load with Blount between the tackles so far. Truthfully, Johnson – who also has eight receptions on the year and is by no means a one-trick pony – should have been given the starting role right out of the gate, and maybe this is the game he finally takes a stranglehold on the role for good. It’s only a matter of time until Blount fades away entirely. Either way, I don’t expect the Lions to kill the Pats on the ground.

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Johnson will be a household name soon enough, giving the Lions their first good back since Barry Sanders – and Mattes’s fantasy squad a much-needed boost.

On defense, there’s not much to talk about besides the fact that the Lions are expected to be without stud corner Darius Slay, per Kyle Meinke of MLive, which must be music to Brady’s ears. After a brutal dogfight against the Jags vaunted secondary last week, things won’t be nearly as difficult for the offense on Sunday night. (Especially if Flash Gordon is ready to go!) (UPDATE: Slay did return to Lions practice in a non-contact jersey on Friday, but he is still unlikely to play [h/t Rotoworld].)

Storylines to Keep An Eye On

(What Will We See from Josh Gordon?): This is obviously the biggest storyline heading into the game. Pats Nation is absolutely giddy with excitement over this week’s acquisition of the uber-talented but oft-troubled 27-year-old receiver. He has the skills to make a Randy-Moss-level impact on the team’s offense, or he could easily succumb to past transgressions and fade out in a “Flash.” I’m remaining hopeful, but I’m also not expecting a huge impact from him in Game 1. As we’ve discussed before, the Patriots system has claimed the careers of many former standout pass-catchers in the past, and while Gordon has practiced the past two days, he’s going to need a little more time to get up to speed. He’s also dealing with a minor hamstring issue, so don’t expect him to be truly unleashed until at least next week. If Bill does decide to throw him right into the fire, though, I’d say 4-5 targets, max, isn’t an unreasonable expectation.

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Apparently, Flash is going to be rocking No. 10 as a Patriot.

(So…Maybe Sony Michel is the Guy Now?): After missing basically all summer plus the season opener, Michel was immediately granted 11 touches (12 if you include his kick return) in his debut against the Jags last Sunday. He was even thrown to on two separate occasions. Meanwhile, Rex Burkhead rushed the ball six times and wasn’t targeted once in the passing game. (James White also got eight targets and seven receptions, but that’s always going to happen. He’s basically our Riddick.) Typical. Friggin. Belichick. Some believe it’s because Burkhead was dealing with concussion symptoms earlier in the week and the team was taking it easy with him; I believe, in typical Belichick fashion, he likes to choose which back will be the horse each week depending on the matchup. Until one of them, likely Michel, busts out and locks down the role as top dog, I’m done trying to project anything regarding the team’s group of backs. (My Burkhead for offensive MVP prediction could be in some serious doubt. But hey, at least the rookie finally got on the field!)

(Reunited and It Feels So Goooood): For the 21st time in his Patriots career, Belichick will face off against one of his former assistants, against whom he has a combined 14-6 record. This time it’s former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, who’s currently suffering through a tough start to his NFL head-coaching career. There’s really not much to be said here, as it’s really only a fluffy storyline being used to try and create some more drama and intrigue. Still, it’s always fun to see if the grasshopper can successfully take down the master…even though he probably won’t.

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Always remember the good times, boys.

Prediction

The Pats are able to come out and establish the run early on. Detroit’s defense has been absolutely GASHED so far on the ground, giving up 179.5 rushing yards per game, which is good for dead last in the league. (I know it’s only been two games, but the next-worst mark is Oakland with 154. The Lions run D is horrendous.) Brady is also able to move the ball pretty well through the air and puts up over 20 points before the half. Not to be outdone, Stafford also has his way with the Pats defense, but the Pats clock-killing offensive game plan doesn’t give him a ton of opportunities to keep up. In the end, the game will be close and high-scoring, but the Pats will ultimately tame the Lions, 38-28.

Brock Osweiler May Have Killed a Guy Last Night With This Errant Throw

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I was watching the Patriots smother Brock Osweiler all night, but when I saw that blue hat FLY up into the air after this throw I had to rewind it. When I realized it was some poor shmuck getting smoked right in the head I had to watch it about 5 more times and cackle like a maniac each time. There’s really only one way to sum this up.

This will suffice as well.