Tag: Todd Gurley

The 300s First-ish Fantasy Football Round Up Of The Year – Booms, Busts, and Sneaky Picks

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Welcome back, to your favorite fantasy blog as well as mine. It has been a wild ride in the NFL since last fantasy season ended and plenty of players changed teams, retired (COME BACK GRONK), and entered the fold.

With draft season already underway, to be honest (we have jobs leave us alone) we’ve picked the brains of the knowledgeable staff here at The 300s to bring you some players that are a sure thing, some to avoid, and a few to take fliers on later in your draft. Lezgetit.

Red

I am all in on James Conner this year because the guy is the real deal and even if he’s a JAG, he is still playing in Pittsburgh, which has produced a top 5 RB in each of the last 5 years with three different guys. BUY!

Avoid Antonio Brown like the plague this year. The guy has done everything but tell his infamously prickly coach to go shit in a hat. Shooting his way out of Pittsburgh, now the absurd helmet debacle, oh and lets not forget the guy wrecked his feet in a cryogenic chamber. Thats before we even get to the fact that Derek Carr is throwing him the ball, a guy that his own coach doesn’t even believe in. Pass.

My sleeper pick for this year is Ryan Fitzpatrick because you know for a fact he will post 3 or 4 straight weeks of 40 point games as the Dolphins get blown out by anyone and everyone. Pump and dump baby.

Dom (Who had one too many of his own craft cocktails to follow directions but gave some fantastic advice all the same)

I see this as the draft of the cuff running back. I’m buying on Ekeler and Jackson from SD, Henderson from StL, and Pollard from Dallas. It sounds like St Louis is wary of an ongoing injury for Gurley with all of their roster moves in the offseason, and if Gordon and Zeke continue to hold out, those other guys are there to fill the gap. So while I’m not necessarily calling anyone a bust or sleeper, that’s who I’m looking at.

Joey B

Red sort of stole my James Conner idea. He killed it for me last year. With him gone I’m going to go with David Njoku. Ya he’s a Tight End but there are only a handful that are going to produce at such significant levels as I think he will. Add that to Baker Mayfield is settled into year two and the former Hurricane is in for a big year.

I’m staying away from the Dallas football Cowboys. The whole team. It just sounds like a fucking disaster over there and God help them if anything happens to their vaunted offensive line.

For a sleeper I’m going with old friend Chris Hogan. Cam’s receivers occasionally have huge games and he never has had a consistent security blanket in the Hogan mold.

Lippa

Boom: Allen Robinson

People forget just how good Allen Robinson is. He put up 80/1400/14 with BLAKE BORTLES as his QB in 2015. The last two years have been rough for him injury wise, but all reports say that he looks healthy and has been a focal point of the Bears offense. If Trubisky and the Bears offense takes the next step, look out for a big time year from A-Raw.

Bust: Joe Mixon

I am not touching anything with the Cincinnati offense. The Bengals might have the worst offensive line in the league and with no A.J. Green to start the season, defenses will key on Mixon and give him little room to run. I’ll pass here at where he is typically getting drafted.

Sleeper: Damien Harris

So this may take a little while to pan out as Harris is not getting a ton of reps at training camp, but the Patriots took Harris in the third round for a reason. We all know Sony Michel has degenerative knee issues, so the smart bet will be that he isn’t going to hold up for 16 games. If the Patriots trade Rex Burkhead like I expect, Harris is going to be a must-own and will pay dividends as we get deeper into the fantasy season.


Mattes

BOOM/BUY: Kerryon Johnson, RB, Detroit Lions

I’m really hitching my wagon to my BOOM guy this year. Not only have I already chosen the second-year back as my keeper this season, but I’ve also already been telling everyone and their brother how good he is at pretty much every opportunity I’ve had this offseason. Some are sleeping on him after he played in just 10 games as a rookie last year. OK. Yet, when he was on the field, he still averaged 5.4 YPC and displayed the talent which helped him become the 2017 SEC Offensive Player of the Year at Auburn. He’s also a PPR monster, and with Theo Riddick now entirely out of the picture, he could easily approach 60-70 catches in 2019. Also, his new offensive coordinator, Darrell Bevell, loves running backs more than his own family and has seen his rushing attacks finish in the top five for each of the past six seasons he’s coached – including two-straight No. 1 finishes. The only thing I could see hurting Kerryon is C.J. Anderson, who could steal a few carries here and there, especially on the goal line. But it won’t be enough to prevent Kerryon from being a top-15 running back this season – if not even higher – especially in PPR formats.

 

BUST/AVOID: Phillip Lindsay, RB, Denver Broncos

Let me start by saying perhaps it’s a bit unfair to label an undrafted free agent who totaled almost 1,300 yards as a rookie as a BUST in any way. Lindsay was awesome last season. There’s no doubt about that. But this is about this season, where things have changed significantly out in the Mile High City. New coach. New quarterback. And above all, there’s much healthier direct competition than there was at any point last year. While Lindsay stole the show last year, he only had the chance to do so because the team’s other rookie running back, Royce Freeman – whom the Broncos actually drafted in the third round after a standout career at Oregon – was slowed by nagging injuries all year. Freeman’s been getting rave reviews all offseason for how good he’s looked, and the team has already said he’s going to get plenty more opportunities to showcase himself this year. Theo Riddick is also now in the picture, too. I’m not saying to avoid Lindsay entirely, and he could still end being a solid low-end RB2. But drafting him as a foolproof, bellcow RB1 this year is a big mistake.

 

SLEEPER/UNDERVALUED: Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

It’s funny how just last season this guy was a locked-and-loaded first-round pick. Now, he has an ADP of 2.11 in half-point PPR leagues, and I’ve even seen some mocks where he’s not going until Round 3. Have people forgotten how good this dude is? He was an absolute animal at LSU, and he had a fantastic rookie season in 2017 before being slowed by injuries and dumb off-field behavior last year. Apparently, though, he’s learned from his past transgressions and is working hard to get back on track. There’s also reports that they’ve got big plans for him in the passing attack, and the team finally has a quarterback who is actually, ya know, GOOD at football. And above all: Fournette literally has ZERO competition. Seriously, I might even be able to crack the depth chart behind him. Fournette is someone whom I could easily see piling up 1,300 yards on the ground with 10-plus TDs and 40-50 catches to boot. I’m expecting a huge bounce-back year from this dude. Big time.

The 300s Live Super Bowl Sunday Podcast Now on iTunes

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The 300s Podcast was LIVE at Oak Square Liquors in Brighton on Super Bowl Sunday previewing the game, the prop bets, fan predictions, and we even diverged into some NBA Super Team talk, and MLB Hot Stove (or lack thereof) discussions. Lets GO!

Listen to The 300s Podcast on:

Patriots Rams SUPER BOWL LIII Preview, Odds, and Predictions

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Image result for super bowl liii

Photo cred: Roku Blog

Ya know, we really are so incredibly spoiled as Patriots fans.

Just think about it: For the third year in a row – and the ninth time in the past 18 seasons – we’re STILL gearing up for our favorite squad’s upcoming game as the calendar is about to hit February. Not since Buffalo made a run to four-straight Super Bowls in the 1990s has any other group been able to say that, and, in fact, four groups of fans have never had the chance to be in this position. I think it’s pretty well-established by this point that the Pats are quite possibly the greatest dynasty in the history of sports. But I just wanted to provide a friendly little reminder for anyone who forgot. (*He said with a big smirk.*)

All right, enough subtle bragging. Let’s get into the preview.

As always – for those who missed my full breakdown of all the game’s odds and prop bets last week – here’s a quick look at the important game info and latest lines:

  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 3, 6:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Spread*: Patriots -2.5 / Rams -2.5
  • Moneyline*: Patriots -115 / Rams +130
  • Total*: 56.5 (total)

(*All of the information is courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday, January 31.)

Where to begin? Well, for starters, both teams feature top-five offenses which are capable of putting up a lot of points in a hurry, while their defenses sit near the bottom third of the league overall (the Rams are 19th in total defense and the Pats aren’t too far behind at 21). But that does not mean either team is a pushover on the defensive side of the ball; in fact, both sides have Pro Bowlers and/or All-Pros all over the field, including likely NFL Defensive MVP Aaron Donald (Rams), who, in all seriousness, might be one of the greatest defensive lineman to ever play the game. (I’m not kidding.) Don’t also forget that the Pats gave up the seventh-least amount of points per game in the league this season (20.3).

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More on this monster when we get to the storylines.

Again, though, it’s the offensive side of the ball where these two squads really cut their teeth. The Rams were one of three teams to put up over 30 points per game this year (32.9) and can be very explosive; they had the third-most completions over 20 yards this season and averaged the second most yards per play (6.4), only behind Kansas City. The Pats finished fourth in the league with 27.3 points per contest, and their 5.9 yards-per-play mark isn’t all that far behind. The point is: both of these teams know how to move the ball and get into the end zone.

But there’s one pretty notable advantage the Pats have over the Rams on offense, and it should be pretty obvious to even the most casual NFL fans. This will be Tom Brady’s 39th postseason game overall and the ninth time he’s played in the Super Bowl; Jared Goff will be playing in just his fourth playoff game and his first-ever Super Bowl. In fact, Brady has played in as many career postseason games (39) as Goff has played overall career NFL games when you combine regular-season and playoff appearances.

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Goff looked petrified the whole time the two were up on stage together Monday night.

This is the Super Bowl, where experience matters. (Yeah, I know the Eagles pretty much disproved that last year, but I’m going to say that was an aberration.) And I think it’s pretty safe to say the Pats have the upper hand there:

There’s also the whole coaching experience the Pats possess as well. Again, much like Brady, I don’t think I need to waste time waxing poetic about how Bill Belichick is the greatest coach of all-time or talk about how he’s 34 years older than Rams coach Sean McVay, who is only in his second year of running the team. But, as I already pointed out last week, the fact that Belichick has been coaching in the league for over a decade longer than McVay has even been alive is INSANE, and it could certainly present itself as quite important in the game’s biggest moments.

However, McVay truly is an offensive wizard, and you can’t ignore the immense talent the Rams still possess. Fortunately, they may be slightly less talented than they were coming out of the gates this year, as Goff’s binky Cooper Kupp (aka “Julian Edelman Light”) was lost earlier in the year to an ACL tear, and All-World running back Todd Gurley has been slowed by knee issues of his own since the very end of the season. In fact, Gurley touched the ball just five times in the NFC Championship against the Saints for 13 total yards. Yet DO NOT SLEEP ON THIS MAN; he still put up over 1,251 yards on the ground and another 580 receiving this season with 21 total TDs. When healthy, Gurley is probably the top running back in the game right now. (And don’t forget, he’s also had two weeks off to heal up.)

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A fully healed and rested Gurley is capable of taking over any game at any time.

Even if Gurley doesn’t show up, the Rams have C.J. Anderson, who apparently signed a deal with the Devil this winter. After a 1,200-plus-yard effort with Denver last season, Anderson was let go, and for some reason it took forever for him to find a new home. He then signed with Carolina and struggled through nine games as a backup before being cut in early November. Then, just before Christmas, the Rams signed him due to Gurley’s health, and he’s responded with three 100-plus-yard rushing efforts in four games so far, averaging 5.68 yards per carry!

The Rams also have Robert Woods and former Patriot Brandin Cooks as a very solid wide-receiver pairing. Both guys had at least 80 catches, 1,200 yards, and five TDs this season, and they’ll make it tough for the Pats’ secondary to decide who to focus on. (QUICK PREDICTION: The Pats will likely bracket Cooks with one safety over the top due to his deep-threat ability, basically nullifying him as a weapon. In turn, Goff will have to force the ball to Woods more often than he’d like to, causing a costly interception or two.) As I said, it’s no longer a three-headed monster with Cupp out, but Josh Reynolds has still been a decent No. 3 option who is averaging over 18 yards per catch this postseason. As far as tight ends go, they’re pretty unimpressive in that department, and the Pats should be able to lock them down with ease.

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Old friend Cooks will be looking to actually play in the entire Super Bowl this time around.

Now, let’s get into some of the key matchups and other things I’ll be watching out for specifically on Sunday:

(Rams D-Tackles vs. Pats O-Line): I mentioned Aaron Donald at the top of the piece, and yes, he really is THAT good. He compiled 37 sacks through his first four seasons while also proving to be a force against the run, immediately proving himself to be one of the league’s top defenders after being drafted in the first round out of Pittsburgh in 2014. This season, though, he hit other-worldly levels, posting a league-leading 20.5 sacks, which is even more impressive considering he plays mostly from the interior. Michael Brockers has also been an underrated tackle for years, and let’s not forget the Rams also added former All-Pro Ndamukong Suh to the mix this year as well. Other than these guys, though, the Rams aren’t really all that scary up front (though defensive end and former No. 3 overall pick Dante Fowler can be good in spurts). Luckily, though, the Pats O-line has been even better, allowing zero sacks this postseason. As ferocious as Donald is, I’m really not worried about the Rams’ pass-rush in this one.

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The Pats O-line has truly been exceptional, but they haven’t played this guy yet.

(The Rams Secondary vs. the Pats WRs): The strength of the Rams defense is supposed to lie in their secondary. This offseason, along with Suh, the Rams brought in two former All-Pro corners in Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, and most were ready to hand them the Lombardi Trophy before the season even started (myself included). But, for some reason, Peters has actually been just awful at times this season, Talib missed half the year due to injury, and the team finished right in the middle of the pack in terms of pass-coverage. Safety Lamarcus Joyner has probably been their most consistent player back there in 2018, and I’m scared at how confidently I believe in Brady’s ability to carve them up. Also, even though Nickell Robey-Coleman has been one of the league’s best (if not the best) slot corner this year, I still fully expect Edelman to eat him ALIVE in the slot – hopefully he just doesn’t get away with any more B.S. non-calls:

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(Pats Running Game vs. Rams Front Seven): The Pats were able to use all three of Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead against Kansas City, who collectively give them the best stable of backs they’ve had in years. While Michel is undoubtedly the grinder on the ground, the Pats can keep the Rams off balance with a mix of the other two catching balls out of the backfield. The Rams run defense has been a bit inconsistent this year; they kept guys like Ezekiel Elliot, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram to a total of just 98 rushing yards this postseason, but they’d also given up over 100 ground yards in nine-of their-last-10 before that (including one where they surrendered 273 [!!!] and another in which they gave up 194). They also gave up the highest yard-per-carry average (5.1) to opponents this season. Knowing how good the Pats’ pass-blocking has been and the success they’ve seen with running the ball lately, the Rams will probably focus more on stopping the run. Believe it or not, even as bad as the Rams have been against the ground attack this year, I’m still expecting this one to set up much better for White and Burkhead as opposed to Michel. Cory Littleton (125 total tackles) has also been a revelation at linebacker for L.A. this year, and he could be the X-factor for them on defense in this one.

(Rams Running Game vs. the Pats Front Seven): I already mentioned how the Rams feature not only the game’s premier running back in Todd Gurley, but they’ve also received some unreal production out of C.J. Anderson lately as well. Whether Gurley is fully healed and rested in this one or not, Anderson has proven to be more than capable of carrying the load. The Pats have struggled against running backs at times this year, allowing 4.9 yards a tote, but they’ve given up just 60 rushing yards in total this postseason and a total of just 176 combined in the last two games of the regular season. However, Gurley can hurt them as a receiver out of the backfield, which is perhaps the Pats’ biggest area of weakness on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, Chiefs running back Damien Williams posted a solid five-catch, 66-yard, two-TD performance against the team less than two weeks ago. Dont’a Hightower, Elandon Roberts, and Kyle Van Noy are going to need to step their game up big time in this one.

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Van Noy has been one of the team’s best pass-rushers and all-around defensive contributors this season, but he leaves a lot to be desired in terms of pass-coverage. A LOT.

(Watch out for “Greg the Leg”): The Rams have one the league’s top kickers in Greg Zuerlein. He missed a couple games with an injury this year but has otherwise been money for the past three seasons, nailing 90 percent of his attempts over that time (including 95 percent of them last season). Not only is he accurate, but he’s got an incredibly powerful leg that pretty much puts the Rams in scoring position any time they’re on the opponent’s side of the field (10-for-13 on 50-plus-yarders the past two seasons). If the game’s close at the end and the Rams have the ball, this dude could end up being the dagger that takes down the throne.

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This guy can seriously kick the ball to outer space.

Prediction

While both teams are pretty close in terms of talent level, I feel like experience will end up being the key to victory here. Again, I know the Eagles had a first-year head coach and a backup quarterback win them a title last season, but the Pats defense was also really, reaallllyyy bad in that game. This year, they’re much more refined on that side of the ball, and the Rams aren’t playing at full strength. Above all, I just can’t see Jared Goff beating the G.O.A.T. coming off a Super Bowl loss. I just can’t. Edelman, White, and an adrenaline-filled Gronk will lead the way on offense, and the Pats end up winning with a bit more ease than expected, 34-27.

AND DON’T FORGET: Be sure to tune in on Facebook Live this Sunday from 1-3 p.m. – or come hang with us at Oak Square Liquors in Brighton – as The 300s crew brings you our first-ever LIVE podcast, giving you even more predictions, insight, and crazy shenanigans until just hours before kickoff!

The Rams are 4-0 and It’s All Because of Rams Mafia

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Three years ago Red and myself decided to hop on the Rams bandwagon when it was announced they were heading back to Los Angeles. At the time, the team was in shambles. Jeff Fisher was still a real person, Todd Gurley was not great at running with a football, and the Inglewood stadium was still a pipe dream. Fast forward to Week 4 Thursday Night Football in 2018 and the Rams are nothing short of ELECTRIC. J Goff went off last night for 465 yards and 5 TDs with 0 interceptions. I may be new around here, but even I know that’s a big boy showing from the sexiest man under center west of the Mississippi. He made the Vikings wet themselves on national television and if you ask me, that’s pretty damn impressive.

Now sitting at 4-0, I feel like all my work with Rams Mafia has finally paid off. I took a chance on a team that was going nowhere in the standings. I’d like to take this opportunity to declare my efforts as the turning point for this team. Rams Mafia stuck through all the bad just to get to where we are now. Sure, I tweeted my first tweet from the account today for the first time since the 2016 draft, but I’ve just been incredibly busy motivating, supporting, and standing up for Mr. Goff and Mr. Gurley III all while spreading the gospel from the ground level.

Unfortunately I never was able to honor the above tweet, (as I stated I was busy rallying the troops) but if you see me this weekend in Los Angeles the beers are on me.

All aboard, Rams Mafia has officially left the station!

 

If you’d like to come along for the ride of a lifetime, follow us @RamsMafia on Twitter

This is Why You Don’t Gamble Kids

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Last night was the most entertaining Thursday Night Football game I can ever remember watching. Now obviously these go back to like 2006, but that was a great game that I did not expect. First off, fire flames Color Rush jerseys by the Rams.

Props to them for actually wearing an absurdly loud uniform like the Bills and Jets original Color Rush jerseys before all the blindos complained.

BUT, if you had money on the Rams then you were well within your rights to smash everything in the house. The Rams were a (-2.5) point favorite, meaning they had to win by at least 3 to cover, which we said they would in our Week 3 picks.

So, after a Sammy Watkins’ TD catch midway through the 4th quarter the Rams go up by 15 with a little under 9 minutes left in the game. At that point I’m feeling pretty good about my pick.

That tweet was where it all started to unravel. After the Watkins TD the two sides exchanged punts and then the 49ers get the ball back with a little over 6 minutes left. From there on out it was Brian Hoyer time. Dude completes a 59 yard BOMB to Pierre Garcon in stride.

Now I’m getting a little nervous.

Hoyer promptly throws for another TD, the kick is good, and now the Niners are down 8 with a little over 5 mins to go.

OK, Todd Gurley time to run out the clock. Grind time baby. Oh wait nevermind, the Rams fucking FUMBLE the ball on the kickoff return. Niners ball. On a short field the Niners take 8 plays for Carlos Hyde to punch it in for a 1-yard TD with 2:17 left in the game.

The 49ers are now down 2 before they elect to go for the 2-point conversion. At this point I am PRAYING that they convert so the Rams will actually have a reason to move the ball and score again. Nope, of course Brian Hoyer throws a goddamn pick and they don’t convert the 2-point attempt. Shit.

The 49ers onside kick it and the ball perfectly bounces off a guys head before the Niners RECOVER IT! We’re back in business baby! If the Niners score then the Rams have to go all out. Lets see what you got Hoyer.

Two incompletions. Offensive holding penalty. Incompletion. Sacked on 4th down. Game over. Rams win by 2 points.