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jimmylips

During the day, I do grad school, watch New Girl reruns and contribute to The 300s on NBA and NFL gambling props. At night, I crush it for some sports networks as a writer, researcher and associate producer.

Gridiron Tales Week 12: MNF Birds Edition

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Carson Wentz Finally Has What He's Needed All Along – Dynamic Young Wideouts – NBC10 Philadelphia

Sunday: 2-1

Season: 11-7

Highlight the Highs: Gallman took advantage of Cincy’s porous run defense, while Kirk Cousins dug himself out of a hole for a big passing day

Loathe the Lows: Daniel Jones had success passing on Cincy, but was unable to convert anything into a passing TD, which includes Evan Engram being caught inside the 5 and Darius Slayton not running full speed to track down a deep pass attempt… Oh and the hamstring injury in the second half didn’t help either.

Tonight, we have birds against birds. One team has faired well against the pass the season, while the other team is the league’s get-right pass defense for opponents.

The Pick: Carson Wentz O21.5 completions vs Seahawks (+105)

Fact #1: The Seahawks have allowed an average of 30 completions over their last 5 games

Fact #2: Piggybacking on that, Seattle has allowed the most in each of these categories over the past 5 weeks: completions (30), passing yards (1,668) and QB rushes (35).

Fact #3: Wentz has only reached 22+ completions once in his last 7 games, but the Hawks have allowed every starting QB they’ve faced not named Nick Mullens to complete at least 27 passes.

Sidebar: I know it “Hurts” to watch Wentz play this season and that his backup reportedly has a package this week, but that shouldn’t deter anyone from loving this as a get-right game for the Eagles offense.


The pick: Jalen Reagor O47.5 receiving yards vs SEA

Fact #1: Over the last 5 weeks, Seattle has allowed 105 receptions to WRs — the most in the NFL over that span — and 15 more than the next closest team (TEN)

Fact #2: Over the last 5 weeks, Seattle has allowed a league-worst 1,125 receiving yards to WRs.

Fact #3: Reagor’s snap % has increased each week since returning from injury: 73%, 88% and 93%. Couple this with 18 targets in those 3 games + Philly potentially chasing points and you have a recipe for potential Reagorbombs.

Gridiron Tales: Week 12 Edition

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Last Week: 3-2

Season: 9-6


Recap the Hits: Metcalf went way under vs the Cards, Herbert went well over vs the Jets and the Chiefs needed all 60 minutes to score 4 TDs, but we got there.

Recap the Misses: Julio Jones’s nagging hamstring resurfaced and despite having 30ish rushing yards and a TD in the first quarter, Damien Harris did not draw many more touches after that against Houston.


The Pick: Kirk Cousins O227.5 passing yards vs CAR (-112)

Fact #1: Cousins has passed for 290+ yards in two straight games

Fact #2: The Panthers have allowed the 4th-most passing yards over the last 5 weeks (1,459) — an average of 291.8 per game

Fact #3: Yes, there is no Adam Thielen today, which conventional wisdom suggests leads to the Vikings selling out to stop Dalvin Cook. Justin Jefferson would appreciate the focus not being on him.

Wayne Gallman O56.5 rushing yards vs CIN (-130)

Fact #1: The Bengals defense is allowing 122.5 rushing yards per game to RBs over its last four games

Fact #2: Gallman’s rushing attempts have gone up each of the past 4 games: 10, 12, 14 and 18.

Fact #3: Down Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon on offense, this is a game the Giants should be able to dictate from the beginning, meaning there should be lots of running

Fun Fact: Gallman has a rushing TD in 4 straight (5 in span). I don’t hate his +105 anytime TD prop as a bonus play.


Daniel Jones O1.5 passing TDs vs CIN (-112)

Fact #1: The Bengals have allowed 12 TD passes to QBs over their last 4 games

Fact #2: 6 of the last 7 QBs the Bengals have faced have thrown for at least 2 scores

Fact: #3: Jones has thrown for 2 scores in 2 of his last 4 games

Gridiron Tales: Week 11 Part 2

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Thursday: 1-0

Season: 6-4

TNF Recap: If you had D.K. Metcalf going in PPR fantasy, he gave you a respectable, 3-46-1, and I’m happy for you. Thankfully, those 46 yards fell well under his prop total of 79.5 receiving yards. As Hannah Montana would say, “you get the best of both worlds.”

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert appears in a news conference over video, left, on Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2020, and during NFL football training camp in August 2020. Herbert showed off his new haircut during his weekly availability on Wednesday that drew more comments and reviews on social media than the few times he has thrown an interception. Herbert shed his shaggy locks for a buzzcut. (AP Photo/Courtesy Los Angeles Chargers, left, and AP Photo, right)


The pick: Justin Herbert O277.5 passing yards vs NYJ (-118)

Fact #1: Herbert got a haircut this week, which means the man means business this week. I only get haircuts ahead of big events.

Fact #2: The Jets have allowed an average of 303.5 passing yards over the past 4 games, which includes performances from Josh Allen (307), Patrick Mahomes (416) and Cam Newton (274).

Fact #3: Herbert has totaled 278 or more passing yards in three of his last four outings (347 vs JAX, 278 at DEN, 326 vs LVR and 187 at MIA).

Julio Jones O80.5 receiving yards vs NO (-125)

Fact #1: Saints top CB Marshon Lattimore (abdominal) is out today. In 4 career games vs ATL, he has allowed 14 out of 24 targets passes in his direction to be completed (58.3%), 0 TD.

Fact # 2: Calvin Ridley (foot) returns to action, which should prevent the Saints defense from trying to zone in more on Julio.

Fact #3: Julio has eclipsed 81 or more receiving yards in three of his last four outings (137 at MIN, 97 vs DET, 137 at CAR and 54 vs DEN).


Chiefs Team Total O3.5 Touchdowns vs LVR (-121)

Fact #1: KC is averaging 34.3 points per game during their 4-game win streak.

“But James, why isn’t their win streak at 5 games?”

Because they lost 40-32 at home to the Raiders in Week 5 — their only blemish on the season. The Raiders were reportedly so impressed (and shocked) by their victory that they took a victory lap around Arrowhead, proving that there is no such thing as “act like you’ve been there before.”

Fact #2: MVP front-runner Patrick Mahomes has 10 total TD (9 pass) over the last eight quarters.

Fact #3: In games that don’t feature gross weather conditions aka the Week 8 game vs Cleveland (16-6 final), the Raiders defense is allowing an average of 31 points on the road.


Damien Harris O63.5 rushing yards vs HOU (-167)

Full disclosure: I hate talking about any props that are juiced more than -130, but this feels like a slam dunk. Also, DraftKings didn’t have Mike Davis rushing props available.

Fact #1: Sony Michel is inactive.

Fact #2: The Texans have allowed 683 rushing yards over the last five weeks — the most in the NFL over that span — and they’ve only d four games over that span.

Fact #3: Harris’s rushing totals the last 3 games: 102 at BUF, 71 at NYJ and 121 vs BAL

Gridiron Tales: Week 11 Thursday Night Football Edition

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Last week: 2-3
Season: 5-4

Let’s summarize what happened last week real quick.

Lone positive: Nick Chubb broke all gamblers hearts by running out of bounds and not scoring against the Texans, but for your boy, that long run cashed the over on his rushing yards prop.

Negatives: Jared Goff decided to continue to feed Josh Reynolds as much as he did Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, which meant we narrowly missed our reception totals for both players.

But like Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus say:

“Everybody makes mistakes
Everybody has those days (oh yeah)
Everybody knows what I’m talkin’ ’bout
Everybody gets that way (that’s right)”

And with that we’re onto Week 11 : Belichick voice

The pick: D.K. Metcalf Under 79.5 receiving yards

Unless there are major snowfalls or torrential downpours, I loathe unders because what’s fun about rooting for no points?! But tonight will be football at its best because we get Metcalf vs Patrick Peterson (again).

Flashback: Week 7 featured a classic that resulted in a 37-34 OT win for the Cardinals.

Fact #1: In that high-scoring affair, Metcalf was limited to 5 targets, 2 catches, 23 yards — all season lows.

Fact #2: According to NextGenStats, Peterson shadowed Metcalf on 42 of his 49 routes during that game. Metcalf recorded 1 catch for six yards on four targets with Peterson on him.

Fact #3: In 3 career meetings vs ARI, Metcalf has posted a combined total of 10 targets, 3 catches and 29 yards.

Fact #4: Metcalf has been held below 30 yards in two of his last four games (Other game: Jalen Ramsey).

Gridiron Tales: Week 10 Edition Pt 2

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Season total: 4-1


Thanks to my favorite “Rivers,” Philip, we enjoyed a worry-free game as the future Hall of Famer threw the rock all night long.

Let’s move ahead to today’s slate and we’ll start with what I call “low hanging fruit.” You take these apples whenever you can get them and this week’s Tree of Life comes to us in the form of the Seahawks secondary aka the tree that keeps on giving.

Cooper Kupp O6.5 receptions (+122) and Robert Woods O5.5 receptions (-104)

Prior to their bye, Kupp totaled a career-high 20 targets and a career-high-tying 11 receptions against Miami in Week 8. Woods finished with 8 targets and 7 catches. Goff threw a whopping 61 times with only 17 points to show for it.

Fact #1: The Seahawks have allowed two receivers to catch at least 8 passes in three straight games

Fact #2: According to PFF, the Seahawks have allowed the most receiving yards to slot WRs (977). The next closest team is the Browns at 694!

Fact #3: Seattle will be without top corners Shaq Griffin and Quinton Dunbar


Emmanuel Sanders O3.5 receptions (+112)

Fact #1: This is a revenge game. Sanders signed a two-year deal with Nola after not being able to come to terms with a Niners team that traded for him last season.

Fact #2: Sanders has logged 4+ catches in four straight games

Fact #3: Sanders was quoted as saying, “I want to kick their ass, and then after the game we can hug it out.”


Nick Chubb O72.5 rush yards (-112)

Fact #1: The Texans have allowed an average of 127 rush yards per game over their last four contests

Fact #2: The forecast in Cleveland calls for a repeat of what occurred in their Week 8 clash with the Raiders that featured swirling winds and rain throughout. That means fewer throws and more runs

Fact #3: Chubb reportedly will “play until he gets tired” following a 4-game absence with an MCL sprain.


Bonus Longshot Anytime TD Scorers:

Marcedes Lewis (+600): Revenge game against his old team (Jaguars)

Eric Ebron (+180): Bengals have allowed a league-high 6 TE TDs over the last five weeks


Gridiron Tales: Week 10 Thursday Night Football Edition

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Last week: 3-1

It felt like a possible 4-0 week was in the cards as soon as D.J. Chark caught a 70+ yd TD pass in the opening minute of last Sunday’s contest against Houston. But Sterling Shepard wasn’t able to get the yardage total we needed, despite logging six catches.

Let’s talk about tonight: Colts at Titans

Philip Rivers O23.5 pass completions (-134)

“But why, James?!”

Fact 1: Tennessee’s pass defense has not been good over the last 5 weeks:

Passing yards allowed 1,472 4th-most

Pass TDs allowed 12 T-2nd most

Completions allowed 151 Most

To quote the kids, “That’s it; that’s the (only) fact.”

With that said, Philip Rivers has completed O23.5 passes in two of his last three with those totals being 29, 23, and 25, respectively. The Titans boast the league’s 7th-highest scoring offense this season, which lends itself to believe the Colts will need to pass a lot in this one, especially given their RBBC approach.

Bonus, just for fun: Corey Davis anytime TD (+175)


I’ll be back Sunday morning to hit you with some gems for the afternoon slate.

Gridiron Tales: NFL Week 9 Picks

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Folks, let me introduce myself. I have gone by many names: Big Game, G-Smooth, Jimmy Lips, etc. But for these exercises, I’m just the dude who researches sports information and makes educated guesses on the outcomes of player performances. There will be facts. There will be jokes. And hopefully, there will be success. 

Let’s start out west in the Raiders and Chargers game.

Justin Herbert O270.5 pass yds (-115)

Co-Rookie of the Year favorite, Justin Herbert has been money both on the field and for fantasy owners this season. He has passed for over 271 yards in five of his six starts and the only time he didn’t was in his MNF showdown in Nola, when he finished with 264.

Over the past four games, the Raiders have allowed the following passing yard totals: 

  • Josh Allen – 288
  • Patrick Mahomes – 340
  • Tom Brady – 369 
  • Baker Mayfield – 122

Context is needed for the Mayfield outlier and it should be noted that the winds were howling and it was raining the entire game last Sunday.

DJ Chark O50.5 rec yds (-112)

Jaguars WR DJ Chark was not originally going to make the cut, but sometimes you have to wait (5 days) for good things to happen. 

Texans CB Bradley Roby is out on Sunday due to disciplinary reasons. 

“So what, James?!”

Well, that’s significant because that frees up Chark to roam a bit more comfortably. You’ll recall that Davante Adams just torched the Texans in Week 7 for 13-196-2. I am in no way implying that DJ Chark doo doo doo doo doo doo is Adams, but that Week 7 performance came with Roby on the field. 

Over the past 5 weeks, the Texans have allowed just under 200 rec yds per game to WRs and the 2nd-most TDs to that position over that span (9).

Sterling Shepard O4.5 catches (-118) and O54.5 rec yds (-112)

I know what you’re thinking: “James, I don’t even know you, and yet I can tell this is a homer pick.”

Hear me out with these quick facts, though:

-Shepard has 18 targets over the past two games

-Shepard has has gone over 54 in each of those contests

-Shepard has 6+ catches in three of his four games this season

-WFT has allowed 3 WRs (Kupp, Woods & Cooper) to go over 54 yds in the last 3 gms

So this may very well be a homer pick, but it's a well-researched pick.