Last Week: 3-2
Recap the Hits: Metcalf went way under vs the Cards, Herbert went well over vs the Jets and the Chiefs needed all 60 minutes to score 4 TDs, but we got there.
Recap the Misses: Julio Jones’s nagging hamstring resurfaced and despite having 30ish rushing yards and a TD in the first quarter, Damien Harris did not draw many more touches after that against Houston.
The Pick: Kirk Cousins O227.5 passing yards vs CAR (-112)
Fact #1: Cousins has passed for 290+ yards in two straight games
Fact #2: The Panthers have allowed the 4th-most passing yards over the last 5 weeks (1,459) — an average of 291.8 per game
Fact #3: Yes, there is no Adam Thielen today, which conventional wisdom suggests leads to the Vikings selling out to stop Dalvin Cook. Justin Jefferson would appreciate the focus not being on him.
Wayne Gallman O56.5 rushing yards vs CIN (-130)
Fact #1: The Bengals defense is allowing 122.5 rushing yards per game to RBs over its last four games
Fact #2: Gallman’s rushing attempts have gone up each of the past 4 games: 10, 12, 14 and 18.
Fact #3: Down Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon on offense, this is a game the Giants should be able to dictate from the beginning, meaning there should be lots of running
Fun Fact: Gallman has a rushing TD in 4 straight (5 in span). I don’t hate his +105 anytime TD prop as a bonus play.
Daniel Jones O1.5 passing TDs vs CIN (-112)
Fact #1: The Bengals have allowed 12 TD passes to QBs over their last 4 games
Fact #2: 6 of the last 7 QBs the Bengals have faced have thrown for at least 2 scores
Fact: #3: Jones has thrown for 2 scores in 2 of his last 4 games