TNF Recap: If you had D.K. Metcalf going in PPR fantasy, he gave you a respectable, 3-46-1, and I’m happy for you. Thankfully, those 46 yards fell well under his prop total of 79.5 receiving yards. As Hannah Montana would say, “you get the best of both worlds.”
The pick: Justin Herbert O277.5 passing yards vs NYJ (-118)
Fact #1: Herbert got a haircut this week, which means the man means business this week. I only get haircuts ahead of big events.
Fact #2: The Jets have allowed an average of 303.5 passing yards over the past 4 games, which includes performances from Josh Allen (307), Patrick Mahomes (416) and Cam Newton (274).
Fact #3: Herbert has totaled 278 or more passing yards in three of his last four outings (347 vs JAX, 278 at DEN, 326 vs LVR and 187 at MIA).
Julio Jones O80.5 receiving yards vs NO (-125)
Fact #1: Saints top CB Marshon Lattimore (abdominal) is out today. In 4 career games vs ATL, he has allowed 14 out of 24 targets passes in his direction to be completed (58.3%), 0 TD.
Fact # 2: Calvin Ridley (foot) returns to action, which should prevent the Saints defense from trying to zone in more on Julio.
Fact #3: Julio has eclipsed 81 or more receiving yards in three of his last four outings (137 at MIN, 97 vs DET, 137 at CAR and 54 vs DEN).
Chiefs Team Total O3.5 Touchdowns vs LVR (-121)
Fact #1: KC is averaging 34.3 points per game during their 4-game win streak.
“But James, why isn’t their win streak at 5 games?”
Because they lost 40-32 at home to the Raiders in Week 5 — their only blemish on the season. The Raiders were reportedly so impressed (and shocked) by their victory that they took a victory lap around Arrowhead, proving that there is no such thing as “act like you’ve been there before.”
Fact #2: MVP front-runner Patrick Mahomes has 10 total TD (9 pass) over the last eight quarters.
Fact #3: In games that don’t feature gross weather conditions aka the Week 8 game vs Cleveland (16-6 final), the Raiders defense is allowing an average of 31 points on the road.
Damien Harris O63.5 rushing yards vs HOU (-167)
Full disclosure: I hate talking about any props that are juiced more than -130, but this feels like a slam dunk. Also, DraftKings didn’t have Mike Davis rushing props available.
Fact #1: Sony Michel is inactive.
Fact #2: The Texans have allowed 683 rushing yards over the last five weeks — the most in the NFL over that span — and they’ve only d four games over that span.
Fact #3: Harris’s rushing totals the last 3 games: 102 at BUF, 71 at NYJ and 121 vs BAL