Recap: Missing the Lock prop by 2 completions is infuriating when you realize that they ran the clock out with 3 straight runs to end the game. Tonyan had 2 catches in the first quarter and just one over the final three, but the TD prop did cash.
Today’s Pick: DeAndre Hopkins O87.5 receiving yards (-112) and O7.5 catches (+106) vs PHI
Fact #1: Eagles top corner Darius Slay is out today… not like that has appeared to matter the past couple of weeks
Fact #2: The Eagles have allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to WRs over the last five weeks (943)
Fact #3: Hopkins has 24 targets (8 and 9 catches, respectively) over the last two games
Fact #4: The Eagles have surrendered 8+ catches to DK Metcalf (10), Davante Adams (10) and Michael Thomas (8) over their last three games
2nd Pick: Rashard Higgins O51.5 receiving yards (+100) vs NYG
Fact #1: I hate picking props against my team
Fact #2: Higgins has 95 and 68 yards, respectively over his last two games while also seeing his snap % increase over each of the past five games
Fact #3: The Giants will be without top cornerback James Bradberry, who is on the Covid list
Highlight the Highs: David Montgomery is in a groove right now and no one plays catch-up football like Kirk Cousins
Loathe the Lows: The Chargers continue to play funk 4th quarter football as last week’s game vs ATL and now Thursday’s tilt against the Raiders showed. Also, Mike Glennon was well on his way to reaching his completion total until he was benched due to his defense not tackling Derrick Henry.
But today is a special day. Why? Because we get NFL games + it’s Saturday!
And now that you’ve been all in your feelings about how awesome 2001 music was, I bring you today’s first pick:
Drew Lock O21.5 completions (-118) vs BUF
Fact #1: Lock is coming off his best game of the season last week against the Panthers (280 and 4 scores)
Fact #2: Buffalo is allowing an average of 24 completions per game on the road compared to 22.9 at home
Fact #3: Buffalo has allowed four of its last five opponents to complete at least 22 completions, including Russell Wilson (28), Kyler Murray (22), Justin Herbert (31) and Nick Mullens (26).
Robert Tonyan O3.5 receptions (-124) vs CAR
Fact #1: The Panthers have allowed 27 catches to TE over the past 5 weeks — T-5th-most in the NFL over that span — despite only playing 4 games (Avg: 6.75)
Fact #2: Tonyan has 4+ catches in four straight games, including a TD in each of those contests
Fact #3: Since Week 8, Hayden Hurst (5), Travis Kelce (10), T.J. Hockenson (4), Kyle Rudolph (7) and both Nick Vannett (4) and Troy Fumagalli (4) have all caught at least four passes against Carolina.
TLDR: Every TE except Gronk (Bucs) has reached at least 4 receptions against the Panthers since Week 8.
Bonus: Panthers have allowed 3 TE TDs over their last four games, which when combined with Tonyan’s current TD streak, makes it worth a sprinkle at the very least (+160 anytime TD)
Highlight the Highs: Everything went well last week, including a Tuesday night special that saw Andy Dalton go over with his completions.
Nothing to loathe when you go 4-0!
The pick: Mike Glennon O23.5 completions (-106) vs Titans
Fact #1: The Titans defense is allowing an average of 26.2 completions per game — the most in the NFL over the past 5 weeks
Fact #2: Glennon turned 31 on Saturday, so this would be a great present to himself and over suitors
Fact #3: They’ll be playing catch-up when their defense lets Mr. Henry run all over them
The pick: Kirk Cousins O22.5 completions (-118) vs the Buccaneers
Fact 1: The Bucs have allowed an average of 31.3 completions per game over the past five weeks — the most in the NFL over this span (4 games played)
Fact #2: Tompa Bay has allowed the fewest rushing yards to RBs over this same 5-week span (233; 58.3 rush yds/game). So as great as Mr. Cook is, Tompa Bay is built to slow him down.
Fact #3: Since Week 7, Teddy “2 Gloves” (18) is the only QB not to complete at least 23 passes against Tompa Bay.
The Pick: Justin Herbert O274.5 passing yards (-129) vs ATL
Fact #1: Everyone and their mother expects Herbert to bounce back after last week’s 45-0 drubbing at the hands of new England
Fact #2: Herbert has attempted 154 passes over the past 3 games, resulting in totals of 366 (vs NYJ), 316 (@ BUF) and 209 against New England last week
Fact #3: The Falcons have allowed the 9th-fewest passing yards over the past 5 weeks for two reasons:
Reason No. 1: They’ve faced Taysom Hill twice
Reason No. 2: They’ve played four games when most have played five (bye week)
Fact #4: Herbert averages 314.8 pass yards per game at home compared to 267 on the road
The Pick: David Montgomery O67.5 rushing yards (-112) vs HOU
Fact #1: Montgomery has eclipsed 70 rushing yards in three of his last four games
Fact #2: The Texans have allowed a league-high 620 rushing yards over the last five weeks
Yesterday the Patriots fell into a 10-0 hole almost immediately after the ball was kicked. Or at least it felt like it. The defense was getting the ball ran down its throat and making Rams’ ball catchers like Tyler Higbee look immortal in the passing game. The offense had had a possession or two and we watched Josh McDaniels again INEXPLICABLY abandon his power running offense to try and revert back to a passing first attack. It was 10-0 and it was already feeling hopeless.
And then Cam Newton threw the softest pick six you might ever see.
To a few different text threads I had the same reaction. I just laughed. Because of course that’s what happened. Our QB1 who just hasn’t been able to figure it the fuck out all year wasn’t able to collect himself when the entire 53 man roster was on its heels and put some points on the board. He couldn’t, even for a moment, look like the Cam of old. National champion, Heisman Trophy winner. First overall pick. Former league MVP. A guy who once threw for over 4,000 yards. And he couldn’t put together an even half decent drive when we really needed it.
But that might not be the worst part. The worst part is I still go into every week wondering if the old Cam, the real Cam, the one teams really didn’t want to play on Sundays, would reappear. The worst part is he, at least outwardly, still has the confidence. Not quite boastful swagger, but the confidence of a QB who just knows he is either gonna sling it or run around you or blast through you but one way or another you’re in for a long day. The worst part is I don’t want to give up on that guy.
Circumstance plays a part in all this optimism, in this hope. I know that. It’s not like we have an exciting option on the bench behind Cam Newton. When he caught the ‘rona earlier this year we started Brian Hoyer. Now sitting at #2 on the depth chart is Jarrett Stidham, which is to say, the Year 2 of Brian Hoyer. So we sort of, whether subconsciously or not, have known all along we NEED Cam to become that guy again. We need him to be the most dynamic QB in the league, maybe ever. There really isn’t another option.
But really the highest contributing part of this is Cam is just so easy to root for. He’s always smiling, he’s always having fun. He’s said to be an immensely hard worker and a football junkie. He ALWAYS owns up for his own play when it, often as of late, isn’t so great. He’s quick to talk up his teammates both to the media and on the sidelines. The entire coaching staff loves him and has called him the leader of this team almost since the minute he was signed. And all of this after overcoming years of debilitating injuries that sought to derail a once singularly promising career. He is literally everything you want in your starting QB, except that little part about getting it done on the field.
To defend Cam as much as possible, he doesn’t exactly have the Roman army-equivalent surrounding him. The patchwork offensive line has held up fairly well this season but when it starts to leak, holy damn does the boat go down quick. Yesterday was a perfect example of that as Jermaine Eluemunor was treated like a revolving door by the majority of the Rams defensive line. The irony is that I’ve derided Cam Newton all year for what appeared to be a complete lack of anything resembling pocket presence or feel, and yesterday he had those things in droves. He was stepping up, moving around the pocket, and feeling the rush. But none of that matters when you are the blood in the water and there is an AaronDonald Shark loose in the backfield. Then there are his his targets. I’m not going too far with this because I have another blog coming later on this very topic. But it isn’t like we’ve set up our new QB with a lot of weapons. Or any really. Julian Edelman, our one (1) mainstay at wide out has been hurt. We literally didn’t have a TE yesterday, did that dawn on anybody? Dalton Keene is at this point a rookie mini-offensive tackle and I’m convinced Devin Asiasi is a Greek myth where a potentially talented is football player is drafted by the game’s most storied franchise only to be super glued to the bench for all of eternity to pay for past transgressions of his family, or fucking something along those lines. It’s not great. But with all that said, there are guys open. And that is really all that matters. You can’t blame who the guys are if they are getting open. Byrd, Meyers, Ryan Izzo when he is healthy, and yes, occasionally, when he isn’t blocking from the back, N’Keal Harry all get open. Yet all Cam Newton can due a good percentage of the time is dump the ball in the dirt, miss them by a mile, hit a defensive back in the chest, or completely question his own ability and not attempt the throw, which has happened all too often. None of that even mentions the ABBBSURD amount of passes the 6’5″ and change Newton has had deflected/knocked down this year. There have been games where our passing attack has looked like Mugsy Bogues shooting jump shots on Hakeem Olajuwon and there has been exactly zero explanation for it. This whole season, where his career is, and his own skill-set just have be in his head at this point. I can’t imagine what else it could be.
Through the deflections, the frustrating sacks taken, the overall lapses in judgement (I would have let Damien Harris taken his chances 1-1 in the open field against a linebacker from the five last night, that’s just me) I’m still rooting for Cam Newton. And that’s the thing. I’m still saying “Come on man, you can do this” when if this was any other QB I’d be anonymously reporting that they were exposed to the rona, robbed a bank, pee in the pool, doesn’t tip, or has bad breath. Anything to get them the fuck off my team. With Newton, I want him to do well, and I want him to do well with the Patriots. Still. Despite the asshole outfits. He’s just that easy to root for.
We dropped, in all probability, out of playoff contention last night. So Cam Newton probably will not bring the Pats to the heights that we once hoped, and for a lot of us, kept hoping for. This was most likely a one season thing. It won’t have the same feeling, desperately begging Newton to put it together to win these next few, meaningless games; to dig deep for the moral victories that will let us all sleep easier at night. And that just sucks. Because he is so damn easy to root for.
Sports Illustrated –His path to the top of the Houston Texans’ front office is unlike anything the NFL has ever seen. Many from his past see him as a chaplain with a heart of gold or an underdog outsider with the tools for greatness. Others are skeptical, unable to square his relentless ambition with claims of selflessness. Two years after his arrival in Houston, those inside the Texans’ building describe an atmosphere of mistrust, a state of constant chaos and a sense that he isn’t fit for the roles he’s taken on…Then there was Jack Easterby, hired as the franchise’s executive vice president of team development in April 2019, a man who’d risen from low-level Jaguars intern to Patriots team chaplain to lauded character coach—before making an unprecedented shift into football operations. Easterby, those Texans told each other, was Littlefinger, the nickname of Petyr Baelish, a shadowy and cunning operative who on TV espoused righteousness as a strategy, but sought to consolidate power through chaos and isolation and the pulling of strings behind the scenes.
Chaos is a ladder. This is a blog I meant to write back in October, but never got around to it because I’m a perpetual procrastinator. The headline of that blog I never wrote was: “With Bill O’Brien Fired, Jack Easterby is Officially the Petyr Baelish of the NFL.” A guy who was hired to be a chaplain, a glorified character coach for the Patriots, somehow rose to the rank of General Manager for the Houston Texans. How the fuck did that happen? Seriously, Easterby should walk around with a mockingbird sigil pinned to his chest.
I often thought my disdain for this man I never met was just my Patriots red and blue bleeding through after Easterby trashed Robert Kraft on his way out of New England because he *allegedly* got an HJ from another adult. People that act holier than thou are usually the worst ones behind closed doors. Well, turns out it wasn’t just me as Sports Illustrated just published an extensive article TRASHING Jack Easterby and also borrowing my Baelish analogy.
Long story short, Easterby worked his way up from camp counselor to college character coach to chaplain for teams like the Chiefs and Patriots, before heading to Houston for a promotion in Player Development (Easterby then also tried to poach Nick Caserio while at Kraft’s house for a Super Bowl ring ceremony), and then *nine* months after being on the job for the Texans, he somehow slides into the EVP of Football Operations/GM role after the vacuum left by the firing of current GM and coach, Bill O’Brien.
THAT is some ladder climbing folks.
Easterby’s role wasn’t clearly described to many of his new colleagues, but he was expected to build on the position he held in New England, setting an organizational culture and mentoring players.
These are the kinds of hires that are always disasters in companies because if nobody really knows what somebody is supposed to be doing then it allows them to, at best, be unproductive and at worst work in the shadows to craft their own job description.
One former staffer says that when Easterby is asked for specifics about a subject on which he’s out of his depth—not uncommon considering his scope of responsibilities and limited NFL experience—he’ll artfully deflect and move on to a new topic. They watched curiously as Easterby’s responsibilities expanded well beyond the role for which he was hired—in some cases, outside his areas of expertise. As another colleague puts it, “Jack was basically doing everything O’Brien was doing, except for calling plays.”
See what I mean?
But you seriously have to read this entire SI article just to see the long winding road a guy with zero actual NFL chops somehow jumped from position to position, manipulating relationships (and to be honest probably naive, hyper-religious people) from team to team, until he somehow went from character coach to the guy in charge of a National Football League franchise. Unreal, you almost have to respect it.
While Easterby aspires to be a transformational leader, guided by religion and morality, people who have worked alongside him in Houston have increasingly come to see him as transactional. Says a colleague: “If you combine a faith-healing televangelist with Littlefinger, you’d get Jack Easterby.”
The one thing that I can’t seem to figure out is his apparent close relationship with Belichick. You would think this is a guy Bill would tell to get the hell away from him. He has always been distrustful of charlatans like Tom Brady’s guy, Alex Guererro. Although it seemed like his act may have been wearing thin and more people were starting to wise up in the Patriots organization.
One person who saw his sideline histrionics up close says they were more show than substance: When you see him and the big personality and how he’s moved up the ladder so fast, you’re like, ‘Man, this isn’t authentic. Something doesn’t feel genuine about this.’ ” Others saw him sidling up to assistants. They noticed that he hired an agent who represented coaches and executives, an unheard-of move for a chaplain in pro sports. One Patriots staffer compared Easterby to a preacher at a megachurch—a man of God who stands onstage and denounces the ills of poverty, then slips out the backdoor, into a private jet. Several current and former colleagues, from Foxboro and Houston, agree that this description is accurate.
Theres also a ton of stuff in there about Easterby seemingly straight up lying on his resume and experience such as helping 50+ universities in their coaching searches over the years without offering any specifics. Until he got called on it that is.
As recently as November, a bio for Easterby that appeared on the website for the Greatest Champion Foundation (a nonprofit with a goal of serving athletes holistically through faith and founded by Easterby and his father) claimed that Easterby has over the years “been entrusted with over 50 head coaching searches at both power-five and mid-major universities for multiple sports.” Neither the Texans nor Easterby addressed specific questions from SI about which programs he has worked with on coaching searches and in what capacity.
That foundation’s site was down for most of the past month—a staffer explained that it was due to a redesign and migration to a new content management system—and when the new version launched last weekend, Easterby no longer had a bio.
It seems like the Texans may finally be wising up to Littlefinger’s act of ladder climbing as well. Apparently they sent out an email to all season ticket holders announcing a star studded team devoted to finding the next GM and coach of the team. Just as it ended for Baelish, you can only climb so high on trafficking misinformation before you make enough enemies that it catches up to you.
After reading that absolute hit piece by SI though, if I had to summarize Easterby in one gif, it’s this.
I’ll spare you the recap of telling you how awesome I was with Mayfield’s over completions and David Montgomery’s over rushing total hitting before the third quarter; You don’t want to hear that stuff! Derek Carr did give us a bit of a scare though,
The Pick: Andy Dalton O20.5 completions vs BAL (+100)
Disclosure: When I looked at this 2 hours ago, it was +100, DraftKings now shows -124, which is still good.
Fact #1: Ravens are allowing 23.6 completions per game over their last 5 — 7th most in NFL over that span.
Fact #2: Cam Newton (13) and Joe Burrow (19) are the only QBs to not hit 21+ vs DAL this season.
Fact #3: Since returning from a concussion, Dalton’s 2 games are 21 (@ MIN) and 25 (vs WFT) completions.
Highlight the Highs: I was proud of myself for nailing Wentz’s over completion total given that he and the Eagles had an abysmal start on MNF against the Seahawks.
Loathe the Lows: I expected Jalen Reagor to catch one deep ball on that suspect Seahawks secondary and it just never came to fruition.
The Pick: David Montgomery O61.5 rushing yards vs DET (-148)
Let me preface this with the fact that when I looked at this prop on Saturday night, it was around the -110/-120 area. Even with the heavier juice, I still like it and here’s why:
Fact #1: The Lions have allowed the second-most rushing yards over the last five weeks (594)
Fact #2: Back in Week 1, Montgomery finished with 13 carries for 64 yards
Fact #3: Montgomery has had rushing totals of 89, 30 and 103, respectively, over his last three games
The Pick: Derek Carr O23.5 completions vs NYJ (+101)
Fact #1: This prop is more about the opposing defense than it is the QB
Fact #2: The Jets have allowed the 5th-most completions (122) to QBs over the last five weeks, despite only playing 4 games in that span (avg of 30.5)
Fact #3: Since Week 5, only one QB (Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 6) has failed to complete fewer than 24 passes against New York.
The Pick: Baker Mayfield O227.5 passing yards vs TEN (-112)
Fact #1: The Titans have allowed the 3rd-most completions (132) and fifth-most passing yards (1,373) to QBs over the last five weeks (avg of 274.6)
Fact #2: Over the last four weeks, only Lamar Jackson (186) failed to pass for fewer than 295 yards against TEN, which includes QBs Nick Foles and Philip Rivers x2
This has become somewhat of a running joke, what is Bruce Arians going to say to throw Tom Brady under the bus this week? Without fail, Arians always delivers and needlessly dumps all the responsibility in Brady’s lap. Last time it was Tom Brady, the greatest quarterback to ever play the game, a 20 year veteran, suddenly was getting confused by coverages?
This week, after bringing the Bucs back to within 3 points after Arian’s defense gave up 200+ yards to Tyreek Hill in the first QUARTER, Arians blamed the play calling on the player. Not taking responsibility himself or even criticizing the Offensive Coordinator, Byron Leftwich. Nope he instead blames it all on the player.
Bruce Arians, to me last night, on Tom Brady: "He picks all the plays now. We call what he picks. We just have to get better. He's getting more comfortable every week. We're getting close." (Note: Arians was upbeat about Brady's skillset. This is a process.) More on The Aftermath
Granted you can still see Brady and his Tampa Bay receivers missing on plays that were automatic in New England. But thats what happens with new guys. It’s hard to replicate the familiarity with a teammate like Brady had after nearly 600 completions to Julian Edelman. Brady and Edelman played together for 10 YEARS and they did summer workouts in Cali, and offseason workouts in Montana. All those extra reps add up so when the blitz is coming both Brady and Edelman knew what the other guy was thinking and where they needed to be.
With that being said, this Bucs team would probably be better off if Brady just ripped the green dot off his helmet and ran his own offense at all times.
What Arians is doing week after week personally offends me. I feel like the girlfriend of the guy who doesn’t want to complain to the waiter that he got the wrong order. I ain’t having it, Bruce.
Say what you will about Bray and Belichick’s relationship getting a little frosty towards the end in New England, but BB never publicly criticized Tom. Remember the time the Patriots got absolutely demolished by the Chiefs in 2014? A lot of people were saying Brady looked cooked. Hell, Trent Dilfer went out on a limb to roast the Patriots and probably regrets it to this day.
After that game a lot of people were asking the question would Belichick consider moving on from his 37-year-old quarterback and go with the kid they drafted in the 2nd round that year, Jimmy Garoppolo. Remember Bill’s response?
The Patriots won the Super Bowl that year.
Remember back in 2016 when a reporter asked if Jimmy G played well enough during Tom Brady’s four game Deflategate suspension, could he earn the job full time? Bill nearly spit on the guy.
The Patriots won the Super Bowl that year.
You see my point yet? Look, I’m not saying Brady is this unquestionable, beyond reproach, Christ-like figure (though he might be), but when you have a guy with Brady’s resume who is still playing at an elite level (3,300 yards, 28 touchdowns and on pace for his most TD passes in over a decade) maybe you figure out a way to work with the guy rather than trying to dump all the blame in his lap?
"Right now Bruce Arians is wasting Tom Brady. He got served on a silver platter the greatest quarterback to ever play, and all you had to do was use him the right way."
I mean the Bucs are 7-5 and are currently the No. 6 seed in the NFC. So they’re still in a great position to make a playoff run.
What are you doing, Bruce?
Tom Brady is simply too nice of a guy to ever say this, but Arians is the guy in charge and if he’s not going to take some of the blame for his team’s struggles then he needs to go. Ever the positive person (AKA a politician) Brady has refused to get down in the mud, but he did abruptly end his post game presser after about 2 minutes when grilled on his relationship with Arians.
Only one of these guys in Tampa has the GOAT title and it sure as hell ain’t the guy that coached Jameis Winston into 30 interceptions. So if the Bucs flame out this year, don’t be surprised to see Arians get axed and one of “Brady’s guys” comes in to take over.
Whether you’re looking for a new C’s shirt now that Tatum has signed a long term extension, some Pats gear, Bear Force One swag, or just shirts that generally mock the Red Sox, we’ve got you covered. We also have plenty of The 300s merch too if you want to rep the brand around town. So grab your shirts, stickers, hoodies and more today and save 20% with code DEALS2020. Shop now!
Highlight the Highs: Gallman took advantage of Cincy’s porous run defense, while Kirk Cousins dug himself out of a hole for a big passing day
Loathe the Lows: Daniel Jones had success passing on Cincy, but was unable to convert anything into a passing TD, which includes Evan Engram being caught inside the 5 and Darius Slayton not running full speed to track down a deep pass attempt… Oh and the hamstring injury in the second half didn’t help either.
Tonight, we have birds against birds. One team has faired well against the pass the season, while the other team is the league’s get-right pass defense for opponents.
The Pick: Carson Wentz O21.5 completions vs Seahawks (+105)
Fact #1: The Seahawks have allowed an average of 30 completions over their last 5 games
Fact #2: Piggybacking on that, Seattle has allowed the most in each of these categories over the past 5 weeks: completions (30), passing yards (1,668) and QB rushes (35).
Fact #3: Wentz has only reached 22+ completions once in his last 7 games, but the Hawks have allowed every starting QB they’ve faced not named Nick Mullens to complete at least 27 passes.
Sidebar: I know it “Hurts” to watch Wentz play this season and that his backup reportedly has a package this week, but that shouldn’t deter anyone from loving this as a get-right game for the Eagles offense.
The pick: Jalen Reagor O47.5 receiving yards vs SEA
Fact #1: Over the last 5 weeks, Seattle has allowed 105 receptions to WRs — the most in the NFL over that span — and 15 more than the next closest team (TEN)
Fact #2: Over the last 5 weeks, Seattle has allowed a league-worst 1,125 receiving yards to WRs.
Fact #3: Reagor’s snap % has increased each week since returning from injury: 73%, 88% and 93%. Couple this with 18 targets in those 3 games + Philly potentially chasing points and you have a recipe for potential Reagorbombs.
The 300s 