Tag: Craig Kimbrel

True to Form the Red Sox Bullpen Blew Eduardo Rodriguez’ 20th Win

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Thats 31 blown saves on the year for anyone counting, solidifying my position that the Closer by Committee analytics bozos can go shit in a hat. The 6th inning is not the same as the 9th inning, even if your calculator says so. The Red Sox struggled all year long and not having a lockdown closer waiting in the bullpen was a huge reason why. Sure there were massive injuries to the starting rotation and major letdown seasons from a host of players, but those are things you can’t necessarily plan for. Having a bullpen is something you can plan. Now I’m not saying I would have given Craig Kimbrel the gigantic contract he wanted because he hasn’t been very good this year either, but I would have brought in someone who actually has “Closer” on their resume. Thats just smart business. But the Red Sox punted on smart business the day after winning the World Series last year and once again falling into the trap of thinking they’re smarter than everyone else. Its a goddamn cycle in this town.

TLDR; My guy Eduardo Rodriguez got screwed out of the only accomplishment that would have given me a little optimism heading into what will likely be a nuclear winter for the Sox.

Dave Dombrowski Threw a Tantrum Because Nobody Likes His Bullpen “Additions”

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So Dave Dombrowski threw a temper tantrum over the weekend because nobody lauded his ingenious “additions” to the bullpen. I mean, by all accounts, he’s not wrong. Nathan Eovaldi can be a very effective reliever when healthy. We saw him do just that in the playoffs last year so why aren’t people falling all over themselves to pat Dombrowski on the back?

Oh yea, thats right because this isn’t an addition you disingenuous dummy. This is a guy the Sox paid big bucks to anchor their rotation down who was IMMEDIATELY injured and has missed all but 4 games this season. So forgive me if I’m not super excited for an injured starter coming back being hailed as the savior of the bullpen.

For Dombrowski to get all pissy because “people seem to, not, like grasp” this is hilarious. This is exactly what I said would happen last year after the Sox won the World Series too. I know this will come off as peak whiny Boston fan, but that doesn’t mean its not true. Last year Dombrowksi punted on making real additions to the bullpen and pulled Nathan Eovaldi and Ryan Brasier out of his ass while David Price pitched out of the pen, and Joe Kelly went on an all-time postseason run.

All that did was embolden Dombrowski to again make no real additions to the bullpen, let Joe Kelly go to the Dodgers, AND let their closer walk all in one offseason. “Hey I did it last year, why can’t I patch this thing together on the fly again?” Because thats not how baseball usually works. Thats why they call it lightning in a bottle.

If Nathan Eovaldi goes on to record 20 saves in the second half of the season then please disregard this blog.

Red Sox Going With Closer by Committee to Start the Season

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WEEI – Matt Barnes. Ryan Brasier. Heath Hembree. Brandon Workman. Brian Johnson, Colten Brewer. Hector Velazquez. Tyler Thornburg.

Thornburg is the highest-paid member of the group at $1.7 million despite not proving to be an effective big leaguer since 2016. Two guys the mix to close games — Barnes and Brasier — have a combined two career saves to their credit. Hembree has never been relied on as a consistent late-inning guy. Workman has never seen a full season in the majors. Johnson and Velazquez are more perceived as long men/spot starters than high-leverage options. And Brewer’s major league debut last season with San Diego resulted in 11 appearances in which he gave up 10 runs on 15 hits and seven walks.

And you know what? Alex Cora genuinely remains really optimistic about what he has to work with.

Closer. By. Committee. The three most feared words in all of baseball. Seriously, it’s NEVER a good idea and I am still scarred by the mere mention of it after the disaster that was the 2003 Red Sox. Byung-Hyun Kim, anyone? Kim, Brandon Lyon, Chad Fox, Mike Timlin, Tim Wakefield, Casey Fossum, Alan Embree, Jason Shiell (who?), Bronson Arroyo, and Robert Person all had saves for the Boston Red Sox in 2003. Thats TEN dudes that got the ball in the 9th inning. There’s a reason they went out and paid boatloads of money for Keith Foulke that offseason and then actually won the World Series the following season.

Lets just take a look at the Red Sox recent championship history as it relates to the closer position.

  • In 2018, there were four guys that recorded a save, with Craig Kimbrel racking up 42/46.
  • In 2013, there were three guys that recorded a save, with Koji Uehara racking up 21/33.
  • In 2007, there were five guys that recorded a save, with Jonathan Papelbon racking up 37/45.
  • In 2004, there were four guys that recorded a save, with Keith Foulke racking up 32/36.

Have I made my point clear enough?

Don’t get it twisted, I am not the guy campaigning to give Kimbrel and his wildly inconsistent performances $100M, but I do prefer to give the job to one guy until he proves he cannot handle the job. None of this closer by committee junk that 100,000% will fail spectacularly.

The manager added, “One thing we found out towards the end, that although the people outside our world think we’re short on pitching, we’re not, and we’re going to be fine.”

I understand that there isn’t a young stud closer waiting the wings. There isn’t a Papelbon pushing Foulke out the door on this roster, but what worries me about the Sox is how they went about this. And I knew they would the second they won the World Series too. All summer we railed against the team for not making any big trades to shore up the bullpen and how it would be the end of them. Naturally they fell ass backwards into Ryan Brasier and Joe Kelly turned into 2003 Eric Gagne for a month and the Sox cruised to another title. Now Dave Dombrowski is pointing to what the team did last year and their philosophy on the position and the results they got. Except the only problem is that shit ain’t normal. Joe Kelly will never pitch that well for that long again. Ryan Brasier could be an absolute diamond in the rough, but he could also revert to the guy that was pitching in Japan before the Sox signed him last year.

So to not only double down on that devil may care attitude with the bullpen, but then to also make no moves while guys like Kelly and (probably) Kimbrel walked is not ideal.

But hey did you hear that Tyler Thornburg is close to returning from injury for the third consecutive year??

Oh man, I hope this Durbin Feltman kid really does fly through the minor leagues this year and is ready for prime time because this could get ugly quick. Hopefully he’s more Papelbon than Craig Hansen though.

It’s not that I’m down on all of the individual relievers themselves because they’ve all proved they can be more than effective…in certain roles. If we are looking to go the 2003 route where the Sox had 10 guys vying for saves, then I think this team is in big trouble.

Three Burning Questions for the Red Sox on First Official Day of Spring Training

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With most of us still flying high from the Pats’ big victory just a week and a half ago, it might be pretty easy to forget that our other reigning champion sports squad is set to begin work on their title defense this week.

On Wednesday morning, your world champion Boston Red Sox held their first official spring training practice down in Fort Meyers. (Even though a lot of players arrived last week and have already been practicing – including Chris Sale, who has been “cleared to have a normal spring training,” according to Dave Dombrowski [h/t ESPN Boston]. That’s big news for the lefty after last year’s late-season injury woes.)

After an offseason where the Sox literally made zero noteworthy moves besides resigning Nathan Eovaldi, we’re pretty much going to see the same team this year. Gone are Joe Kelly and Craig Kimbrel (who is still a free agent, however, and could potentially return at the right price, per The Boston Globe‘s Pete Abraham):

But other than that it’s going to be the same dudes you rooted for throughout all of last season. That’s certainly not a bad thing.

Still, that does not mean that this team comes without questions or concerns. Yes, we haven’t even passed Valentine’s Day yet, and the season is still over a month and a half away, but there are definitely some things that Cora & Co. need to figure out before the real action begins in Seattle on March 28:

(Who’s Going to Replace Kelly and Kimbrel?)

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To be honest, even though Joe Kelly had one of the most dominant posteason runs any Red Sox reliever has ever had (11.1 IP, 1 ER, 13 Ks), he’s actually been a pretty lackluster bullpen guy for most of his career otherwise. After he signed with the Dodgers in mid-December, I let you all know that I wasn’t really that worried, and there’s definitely enough already in tow to replace him and his 4.39 ERA from last season.

But Kimbrel? Sure, I laughed at the fact that he thought he was worth $100 million when he first hit free agency. And yes, he also had a horrible 2018 postseason and is prone to meltdowns every now and then. But besides an abnormal 3.40 ERA in 2017, the man has posted sub-2.75 ERAs in every other season in his nine-year career. Overall, his career ERA is actually 1.91, and he has lead the league in saves four times. So, not only do I think the Sox should try to resign him at what should now be a much more reasonable price, but if they don’t then they are going to be missing a pretty big piece at the end of games this year.

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The team’s got some decent bullpen depth from which to draw, especially after the emergence of guys like Ryan Brasier last year and the low-risk re-signing of Carson Smith (a move I made sure to highlight and highly endorse), with the former being my choice to replace Kimbrel if he doesn’t come back. And, there was also this from ESPN’s Dave Schoenfield earlier today:

“Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said the team’s plan to replace Craig Kimbrel as closer will be ‘somebody internal.’ He said — at the risk of sounding old-fashioned — that he does prefer one guy rather than a bullpen by committee approach and mentioned Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Tyler Thornburg and Steven Wright as possibilities. As for the chance of still signing Kimbrel: ‘I can’t get into the conversations with free agents.'”

This will remain the biggest question throughout all of spring training, and we may not get an answer for quite a while.

(Can We Trust the Rotation?)

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Considering the Red Sox as a team led the league in pretty much every notable batting category last year, it should be no surprise that the second question featured here also has to do with pitching.

Chris Sale, David Price, and Nathan Eovaldi came up huge in the postseason last year. Rick Porcello, too, was very solid, allowing just two runs in 11.1 innings outside of a rough Game 4 in the ALCS. But each one of these guys did not come without their struggles during the regular season last year:

  • Sale suffered his late-season shoulder issues, which caused him to be shut down or severely limited over the last two months of the season. (He pitched a total of 14 innings from July 27 through the end of September.)
  • Price may have finally exorcised his big-game demons last October and has posted sub-4.00 ERAs in each of the past three years. But still, ya never know with this guy.
  • After winning the Cy Young Award in 2016, Porcello has two straight seasons of ERAs over 4.20.
  • Eovaldi is another unproven guy who really didn’t shine until September (and, of course, October). He had pretty much been a flame-throwing mid-4.00-ERA type of guy for most of his career before coming over from Tampa Bay last season.
  • And, even though he’s not mentioned above, this is also a huge year for lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. The 25-year-old pitched to a solid 13 wins and 3.82 ERA last year, but had been wildly inconsistent – both physically and emotionally – beforehand, so he’s no guarantee yet. However, apparently he’s now “in the best shape of his life,” so that’s a good start.

I don’t think there’s necessarily a ton to worry about as of right now, but things could take a turn for the worst pretty quickly here if things don’t go right. Adding a little more depth in this area would be a smart move if Dombrowski can make something happen this spring.

(What’s Up with Dustin Pedroia?)

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Remember this guy??!! Ya know, the diminutive little spark plug who used to be the heart and soul of the franchise? He’s also a four-time Gold Glove-winning second baseman who won Rookie of the Year AND a World Series in 2007. He then won the MVP award the following season, before also helping the team win another World Series with another All-Star season in 2013.

But after playing in just three games last season, and only 105 the year before that, it seems as though he’s almost been forgotten entirely. (Your team achieving a record-setting, championship season without you being involved whatsoever can do that to a guy, I guess.) In fact, many people I’ve talked to have just assumed he was “done.”

If you know anything about Pedroia, though, you know there was just no way he was going out like that. And if anyone can come back and prove all the haters wrong at 35 years old, it’s this dude.

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However, if we’re being honest, it’s not going to be easy. It’s not as though Pedroia is dealing with some freak knee injury he got sliding into second base; rather, it’s an issue with the cartilage that was originally only supposed to keep him out for just a few months last season. Let’s just say things didn’t work out according to plan. Dombrowski also added this little tidbit on the subject this week:

“We’re still not looking at a 150-game player. We’re hopeful that he’s a 125-game player at this point. We do feel we have some people who are solid and can fill in. To fill in if (Pedroia) plays 120, guys like (Brock) Holt, a guy like (Eduardo) Nunez coming over there. Even some depth with Tzu-Wei Lin in our organization we like a great deal. They are also capable of playing more games, that combination. But we’re hopeful that Pedey will be the guy. The main guy.”

Fortunately for him, the second base job still seems to be his for the taking, and he’ll get every chance to reclaim his rightful spot on the field with a solid spring. But as alluded to in the quote above, he’ll face some stiff competition. Yet if he can get the Laser Show going again, it’s going to be tough for anyone to stop him.

There are very few players in Red Sox history I love more than Pedey. Here’s to hoping he bounces back with some great spring ball down in the Sunshine State.

As far as the rest of the team goes, I’d say there are very little questions on offense with this loaded lineup, and I’ll save all the upcoming contract talk for another time. I’m sure some more questions will pop up along the way this spring, but for now let’s just enjoy the fact that the champs are back in action and good weather is just around the corner. Baseball is back, baby!

Craig Kimbrel and His Insane Beard Likely on the Way Out of Boston

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So it looks like there’ll be a lot less facial hair and excessive body-leaning in the ninth inning for the Sox next season. (Seriously, though, Kimbrel’s pre-pitch shtick drives me NUTS. I don’t exactly know why, but I’ve always hated it.)

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WHY, though??!!

On Monday, Sox GM Dave Dombroski issued this little nugget about the 30-year-old free agent and the likelihood of him being back in Boston next season:

OK then.

Even though this technically doesn’t mean anything for certain, Dombrowski’s always been pretty direct, and he’s typically not one to beat around the bush. His comments yesterday combined with the fact that Kimbrel is allegedly looking for a six-year deal (LOL!!!) pretty much signals the end for the bearded one’s time in The Bean.

Easily the game’s top closer for the first five years of his career in Atlanta (186 saves and a 1.43 ERA in 289 innings), Kimbrel has been a bit up-and-down since, hovering between above-average and dominant for the past four seasons, the last three of which being with the Sox.

With the Sox, Kimbrel has seen his seasonal ERA go from 3.40 to 1.43 to 2.74, further demonstrating the inconsistency he’s shown ever since leaving the Peach State. Such is the risk you take with most flamethrowers as they get older, and overall his time in Boston was likely more “good” than “bad.”

BUT there’s no denying the fact that he was atrocious this past postseason, sporting a 5.91 ERA and allowing 19 baserunners in just 10.2 innings pitched. (And this was after a season in which he sported the second-highest walk rate and the highest home-run rate of his career.) Somehow, he never technically blew a save in October, but he certainly wasn’t one of the reasons the Sox won the Series this year. In fact, he was probably one of the main reasons why they could’ve just as easily lost.

But again, I’m not trying to tear the guy down on his way out. After all, he was pretty damn good at times here, and when he’s on his game he can be downright untouchable. However, he’s not “six years” or “$16 million per year” good anymore, and I agree that it’s time to part ways.

I’m with ya on this one, Dave. Now who are we gonna get to replace him?

Craig Kimbrel’s Agent Made an OUTRAGEOUS Claim Yesterday

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This is hyperbole that would make Scott Boras blush and that’s a guy who just said JD Martinez was so good (the best free agent ever in fact) that teams should apologize for underpaying him!

But for Craig Kimbrel’s agent to say he is the *best* closer of ALL-TIME?

Only 319 more saves to go to tie Mariano Rivera, Craig.

Lets take a look at this outrageous statement. Yes, Kimbrel is 14th all-time in MLB history with 333 saves. In fact he and Fernando Rodney, who is 11 years older than Kimbrel, are the only active players in the Top 20 in career saves. But that 333 BARELY puts him halfway to the 652 saves that Rivera racked up in 19 seasons. So if Mo Rivera pitched until his age 43 season and Kimbrel just finished his 9th season at age 30, that means he’d have to average 25 saves a season for the next 13 seasons. I know that doesn’t sound like a lot, but what position is more fickle and fades faster than hard throwing relievers?

Hell, Jonathan Papelbon is the best closer in Red Sox history, one of the most dominant relievers I’ve ever seen, and he only lasted 12 seasons (7 with Boston). Papelbon is 9th on the all-time list with 368 career saves, but he fell off the map and was done at 35.

So yes, statistically Kimbrel is definitely up there with the best closers of all-time, but have you ever really felt secure when he comes into a game? Yankees fans went two goddamn decades of playing 8 inning games because when Mo Rivera came into the game in the 9th it was over. Meanwhile every single Craig Kimbrel save is a high wire act and god forbid someone is on base or it requires more than 3 outs.

Love ya, Craig. Mean it, wish ya the best. But you are not the greatest closer of all time and the Boston Red Sox will not be paying you anywhere near what you are looking for.

Red Sox MEGA Blog: What’s Next for the World Series Champions?

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The Boston Red Sox are World Series Champions once again and that feels so sweet on my finger tips as I type this from my cubicle. I was at the mall on Monday after work grabbing my fresh new champs hat and will be wearing that everywhere from work to the bar to Thanksgiving dinner. So make sure you enjoy the 4th Sox title in 14 years, but with a gaggle of free agents this winter and some serious question marks around a few core players, lets take a look at what’s next for the Boston Red Sox.

David Price

As we covered the other day, David Price has officially opted into the remaining four years and $127 Million of his Red Sox contract. After his excellent ALCS and World Series run it should come as no surprise he opted to stay. The guy seems to love his teammates, finally got over the hump in the toughest market in baseball, and is coming off a 108 win season and a World Series championship. Why leave now? Quite frankly, with Chris Sale’s health concerns, the Red Sox need him. But how will that contract age? Just about as well as you’d expect a 7 year $217 Million contract for a pitcher that will be 37 by the end of it. And that’s not a knock on Price at all, thats a knock on the cost of doing business in today’s MLB, especially for a team that said we don’t sign pitchers over 30 years old in 2014 only to then sign a pitcher over 30 in 2015 to a 9-figure contract.

Chris Sale

I am extremely worried about the longterm health of Chris Sale and not just because of the recency of his shoulder issues. This is the second year in a row that Sale has worn down and gone on the DL with shoulder injuries. Sale is absolutely lights out dominant and one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy, but at 6’6″ and “180” pounds staying healthy has proved difficult for the big lefty.

Lets look at his K’s/9 IP (Baseball Reference refers to this as S09) real quick just to get a sense of how much he is whipping the ball around because that number jumped *significantly* from his last year in Chicago to his first year in Boston. Sale averaged 9.3 SO9 in his last year with the White Sox in 2016, which jumped up to 12.9 in his first year in Boston and then jumped up again to 13.5 in 2018. That is huge and is especially significant because Sale is a guy that the White Sox had tried to tame a little bit. Chicago had tried to get Sale away from chasing strikeouts in order to get more innings out of the lanky lefty. I can’t find a direct quote, but I remember Sale not being a fan of the approach as it resulted in his lowest SO9 since his first full year in the big leagues. His last two years in Chicago were also his worst two years ERA wise, granted they were 3.41 and 3.34, but still. Some guys just need to let it rip.

The Sox are in a tricky position here because Sale is grossly underpaid at $15M in 2019 (if healthy), but it’s also his contract year. So Sale will likely be looking for a huge payday after making peanuts his whole career relative to his performance. Seriously, take a look at the bargain he’s been his whole career.

Sale has barely made more in his entire career ($44M) than Price made last season ($30M). Even if you’re not about the money, thats gotta piss you off a little bit. And if the Sox have legitimate concerns about his shoulder are they really going to pony up $25-$35 Million a year for another 30-year-old starter? They might have to.

Craig Kimbrel

Over his four years with the Red Sox, statistically Kimbrel was very good. He had 108 Saves and a 2.44 ERA with 305 K’s in 184.1 Innings Pitched. He made the All-Star team each of the 3 years he was with Boston saving 31, 35, and 42 games respectively. But he has shown a knack for the high wire act save, which reared its ugly head in the playoffs this year. Kimbrel is very good, even if he simply cannot pitch effectively in non-save situations or for more than one inning, but for a guy with a “potential path to the Hall of Fame” he is going to command big money. I just don’t think the Sox need to invest that into a closer as we’ve seen effective relievers and closers come out of nowhere year after year across the entire league. You had one on your own team this year as the Sox leaned heavily on Ryan Brasier as a 7th and 8th inning guy in the playoffs. A guy that was pitching in Japan last year. Dave Dombrowski seems to agree with that line of thinking as well.

“We do think that we do have a situation where internally we have a couple candidates to do that. (Matt) Barnes and (Ryan) Brasier are the top candidates,” Dombrowski said, via WEEI.com. “They’re not Craig Kimbrel at this point in their careers. But I don’t think we go into the closer by committee approach. So if it wasn’t Craig it’d be either them or we’d have to see what other alternatives existed outside the organization.”

So while he was very good while he was here, I think Kimbrel’s time with the Red Sox is over.

Dustin Pedroia

Alex Cora has already said Pedroia will hit lead off on Opening Day next year if he’s healthy. Pedroia has traditionally hit in the 2-hole (4,115 Plate Appearances) or as a No. 3 hitter (1,290 Plate Appearances) in a pinch, but Cora said it would be more out of respect to Pedroia if he’s able to come back.

“If he’s ready to go, I think that’s the only game he’s going to lead off next year. He’ll lead off Opening Day,” Cora said. “I told him that a few months ago because he deserves it. So Mookie won’t lead off one game next year. That’s the goal.” 

Stuff like this worries me because despite all the shit Pedroia took on the airwaves the last couple of years, like being snidely labeled “the little leader,” he still is the heart of this team. So Cora saying Pedroia deserves this ceremonial at bat has a certain “last hurrah” type feel to it. I’ve blogged about it in the past, but I think Pedroia’s days as a full time second baseman are likely done. Even Dombrowski had said that Pedroia’s knee was something they would have to monitor for the rest of his career, so we might start to see the beginning of Pedroia the platoon player next year if healthy.

Joe Kelly

The real life Rick Vaughn could be a guy the Sox turn to for closer duties in 2019 if he can replicate anything close to his 2018 postseason performance. I would think a player who has had such an up and down career with 2 Saves on his resume wouldn’t have a huge price tag, but you never know. For a guy that seemed to really buy into Alex Cora’s plan and became someone that fans adored after inciting a riot with the Yankees, I’d be shocked if he wasn’t on the Red Sox in 2019.

Drew Pomeranz

I’ve stuck to my take 2+ years that the Red Sox lost the Drew Pomeranz trade and I think I’ve generally been proven right. He seems like a really nice dude so I’m not gonna trash him (plus he can snatch beers out of the sky with the best of them), but I just never loved the move. Look I know the prospect we traded for him, Anderson Espinoza, blew his arm out and hasn’t done much in the minor leagues, but thats never been the point. The point has always been that Espinoza was the Boston Red Sox No. 1 pitching prospect and the No. 13 prospect in all of baseball at the time. In fact he’s still the No. 89 prospect in all of baseball despite not throwing a pitch last year. The Sox sold incredibly low on that kind of equity. You should have been able to get a much better return than a starter/reliever one-time All-Star with injury concerns in Drew Pomeranz. Not to mention a guy who was INJURED AT THE TIME as the Padres got caught fudging his medical records. All that combined with the fact that Cora acted as if Pomeranz was Boston Kryptonite and kept him securely fastened to the bullpen bench, I still think the Sox lost that trade.

Eduardo Nunez

He exercised his $5 Million player option for next season so he’ll be back. While Nunez had a bit of a down year, he showed in the playoffs why he is such a valuable bench player. He can play multiple positions, pinch hit, and generally plays balls to the wall all the time. If he can stay healthy this is a great guy to have on your bench.

Nathan Eovaldi

Have you ever gone to a concert of your favorite band and been so blown away that you legit started getting emotional? That’s what Nathan Eovaldi did in the playoffs this year. He was so good in the World Series that he literally made Rick Porcello cry.

He went 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA in 6 appearances (2 starts) with 22.1 Innings Pitched, 16 K’s, and only FOUR Earned Runs. Incredible. I was on the brink of tears when he wasn’t named MVP and I watched my +5000 lottery ticket float away, but still an incredible month from Nasty Nate. I would love for the Sox to bring him back, but Eovaldi likely pitched his way into a 9 figure deal with his dominant postseason run and I just don’t think the Sox have the payroll flexibility or the stomach to pony that up. He is a guy with two Tommy John surgeries already on his resume so that could be another reason the team shies away, but with Chris Sale already dealing with injuries, Eduardo Rodriguez constantly on the DL, and Rick Porcello on the last year of his contract next season, the Sox could certainly use another young stud pitcher (he’ll be 29 at the start of next year) for now and the future.

Steve Pearce

MVPearce would be a great fit to return and platoon with Mitch Moreland as the two formed a bash brothers duo this season. However, after putting on an absolute show in the playoffs and taking Clayton Kershaw out behind the shed to earn World Series MVP honors, it would not surprise me if a team threw way more money at him than the Sox are comfortable with. This is a toss up, but we’ll never forget the short time we shared together. Steve Pearce does owe me $2,500 after he stole the MVP away from my guy Nathan Eovaldi though…

Ian Kinsler

The Catching Situation

Sandy Leon, Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart are all under contract for next season so what does a team do with 3 catchers? Vazquez recently signed an extension, the team loves Leon’s game calling, and the Sox also made room for Swihart rather than dishing him at the trade deadline. Something has to give though, especially with Swihart all but requesting a trade earlier this season due to lack of playing time. You could probably get a prospect back for Swihart, but I think the team has tanked his stock to really make it worth it. I would expect the team to move on from Leon and integrate the switch hitting Swihart more into the mix while Vazquez takes over primary duties. Especially after Vazquez started 12 games in the playoffs with more than twice as many Plate Appearances as Leon.

We Hardly Knew Ye, Carson

Oh and the Red Sox finally kicked Carson Smith to the curb after his tour de force asshole performance back in May.

After throwing 14.1 innings and getting taken out of a game Smith slammed his glove and blew out his shoulder doing so. You may remember though that he threw Alex Cora and the coaching stuff under the bus blaming his workload for his injury. The guy who was never healthy was now throwing a fit in front of the media. Hit the bricks pal, best of luck.

The Barren Boston Red Sox Farm System

The Red Sox farm system is BARREN right now and everybody knew that would be the case from the second Dave Dombrowski walked in the door. It’s just how he operates. Trade any and all prospects to acquire proven MLB (preferably Tigers) talent. And it won you a World Series so I am not going to complain for one second about that. But, if you take a peek down the road, there are no reinforcements coming for this team. God forbid the Sox are unable to re-sign their own young studs like Mookie Betts and/or Xander Bogaerts. Not to mention David Price is 33, Chris Sale has had shoulder injuries 2 years in a row, Porcello is in a walk year, and the rotation behind them consists of JAGs like Brian Johnson, Hector Velazquez and Steven Wright.

Back in 2016 the Red Sox had the No. 1 overall prospect in baseball in Yoan Moncada and the No. 5 overall prospect in Andrew Benintendi leading the way for their six prospects in the Top 100. Obviously some of those guys were involved in the Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel trades, moves that helped you win the World Series. But, keeping an eye on this team’s long term viability, the Sox now only have ONE prospect in the Top 100 in Michael Chavis, who got popped for PEDs last year so your guess is as good as mine for how he’ll pan out.

One of Boston’s most exciting prospects, Jay Groome, was ranked No. 43 by MLB in 2017 before he blowing out his arm last year. Groome has the build that makes scouts drool as a 6’6″ lefty, but after Tommy John surgery won’t be back on the mound until late in 2019 at the earliest. He would likely start at Single A when he comes back from injury so Groome could still be years away from making an impact at Fenway. I still have sky high hopes for the kid, and not just because he was working out last offseason with current Red Sox ace Chris Sale. Just look at this MLB.com scouting report from 2016:

“Groome works with a 90-95 mph fastball that peaks at 97 with armside run, and he could throw harder as he gets stronger. Nevertheless, his best pitch is a curveball with power and depth that many evaluators believed was the best breaking ball in the 2016 Draft… Groome’s 6-foot-6 frame is built for durability and he uses it to generate good downhill plane on his pitches. His athleticism enables him to repeat his clean mechanics and fill the strike zone. He has the potential to become an ace if his makeup issues don’t get in his way, and he could be the best pitcher signed and developed by the Red Sox since Roger Clemens.”

So there are a ton of questions to answer for this team, but first there are a ton of beers that need drinking and a ton of Schrute Bucks that need spending on all of the World Series Champions swag.

Is Dave Dombrowski the Smartest Man Alive or Did He Kinda Sorta Get Lucky?

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This will be one of the most fiercely debated questions when we look back at the 2018 World Series. Is Dave Dombrowski the smartest man alive for the way he built this team or is he just lucky?

Before the playoffs started everyone, myself included, ripped Dombrowski for not making the “big name” move and getting an arm for the bullpen at the trade deadline. And it was a completely justifiable question as this team’s relievers were struggling bad down the stretch. The only guy that you could trust was essentially Craig Kimbrel, who ironically enough you could not trust in the playoffs. Then the playoffs come and they turned into the ’98 Yankees. Some real Freaky Friday shit.

Ryan Brasier, formerly of the Japanese League, became a dominant 7th/8th inning guy out of absolutely nowhere. Joe Kelly went from blowing the first game of the year to excellent to benches clearing brawl spark plug back to awful during the season and almost didn’t even make the postseason roster. Kelly morphed into a triple digit hurling shutdown setup man. And Nathan Eovaldi, who was coming off his SECOND Tommy John Surgery and who the Sox acquired for the immortal Jalen Beeks(!), became “The Rover.” The ultimate weapon out of the bullpen. I honestly don’t know if the Sox win the Series without Eovaldi. For my money (literally) he should have been World Series MVP, which he probably would have won if the Sox took the 18 inning affair in Game 3.

Now my main point is whether we’ll look back at this championship and praise Dombrowski for being a genius with moves like adding Eovaldi and World Series MVP Steve Pearce. Incredible moves. Or will we look back and say wow I can’t believe that actually worked out.

I can’t help but imagine Dealer Dave as Happy Gilmore after this championship run though. Looootta luck involved.

Dave Dombrowksi:

Plus I would argue most, if not all, of the credit should go to Alex Cora. The way he managed that bullpen was absolutely flawless, if not dangerous. I heard Cora use the phrase “All in, all the time” and it just perfectly captures what this team was doing. From the very first game in the ALDS, Cora was bringing out starters rather than trust it to a traditional bullpen guy. He had David Price starting, relieving, or warming up in just about every single World Series game, then brought in their ace in Chris Sale to close it out. You just don’t see that.

So yes ultimately Dombrowski’s moves paid off in the end, but without Alex Cora and all the shrewd managerial moves he made, I think this team falters much earlier on and Dombrowski is on the hottest of hot seats.

PS – Jon Wallach made a great point on Toucher and Rich this morning. It looks like Cora may have established the new norm for how to manage a bullpen in the playoffs. You never see this habitual usage of starters in the playoffs outside of Game 7 scenarios. Now, as Wallach said, you could very easily wreck your staff by the sheer amount of usage, but hey it worked.

Top 5 Takeaways from Game 1 of the World Series

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The Red Sox took a 1-0 lead in the World Series after a thrilling Game 1 last night. After jumping on Clayton Kershaw early it seemed like the Sox were going to throttle the guy who had never pitched in a game below 50 degrees before. With 1 out and 2 runs already in, JD Martinez got picked off at first and Xander Bogaerts popped out to end the inning though and Kershaw settled in. The Sox were able to pull out the W with contributions from pretty much everyone, so lets look at the Top 5 Takeaways from Game 1 of the World Series.

1.) Alex Cora Practices the Dark Arts

Big Z and I joked on The 300s Podcast preview of the World Series that Alex Cora has a horseshoe firmly shoved where the sun doesn’t shine. This guy can do no wrong. It seems every move he makes, despite all evidence to the contrary, is the right one and he proved it again last night. Like most of Red Sox Nation I groaned at my TV when I saw Cora pinch hit for Rafael Devers with Eduardo Nunez. Devers was second on the team in batting average this postseason heading into last night, already had an RBI on the night, and Nunez had been struggling mightily. What does Nunez do? Proceeds to SMOKE a three run home run to put the Red Sox up 8-4. Incredible.

2.) Chris Sale Still Isn’t Right 

Don’t get me wrong, the guy was throwing gas to start the game and actually ended up with 7 K’s in 4 innings. But it took him 91 pitches, only 54 of which were strikes, to get through 4. His K/9 IP remain elite, but he doesn’t have the stamina or the health or whatever you want to call it to go deep into games. Perhaps the Sox can use Sale out of the bullpen in this series and just squeeze whatever magic they can out of him, but I am still concerned about his ability to bounce back considering everything he’s dealing with.

3.) The Red Sox Bullpen Continues to Feel Its Way Through the Dark 

As we all know, the Boston bullpen was a huge concern heading into the playoffs and Cora has made it work relying primarily on Ryan Brasier, Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly, and Craig Kimbrel. Last night it was those four guys once again leading the way. Joe Kelly was throwing freakin wiffleballs last night as he had arguably his best outing since he’s been in Boston. Oh and Craig Kimbrel was absolutely filthy with 2 K’s to shut it down (thanks Eric Gagne).

4.) We Officially Have a Name for the Swingman Starter/Reliever

Before Game 1, Cora officially gave a name to what I had been referring to as a swingman/super utility bullpen arm all month. The Rover. For guys like Nathan Eovaldi and Rick Porcello who have started games, pitched in long relief, emergency relief, as setup men; basically doing whatever it takes despite the role. Henceforth, this shall be known as The Rover.

5.) The Red Sox Remain Undefeated Against Instant Replay

Steve Pearce grounded into an inning ending double play and it was a real rally killer. Bummer. Only to come back from the commercial break to find out that Cora was challenging the play at first. And wouldn’t you know it, Pearce beat the throw by a hair and was safe at first to extend the inning. What happens next? JD Martinez absolutely smokes a ball to center field to score Pearce and put the Sox back on top 3-2.

Looking Ahead to Game 2

Tonight we get David Price back on the mound for his first start since his excellent outing in the ALCS. Has he truly exorcised those playoff demons and is he ready to give the Sox a commanding 2-0 lead in the World Series? Or will he revert back to the shaky guy we’ve seen all too much?

Either way, jump on the train now and buy a YUCK sticker before they’re all gone.

The Dodgers will counter with Hyun-Jin Ryu who is 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA this postseason. First pitch is tonight at 8:09 pm. Make sure to grab a coffee on your way home after work because it’s gonna be another long night!

PS – Don’t forget about your free lunch today.

The 300s Red Sox vs Dodgers World Series Preview

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It’s been a grueling five year drought, but the Red Sox are finally back in the World Series and they’re taking on the Brooklyn LA Dodgers. The last time the Red Sox won the World Series was 2013 in one of the most unlikely championship runs I’ve ever seen. With the rallying cry of Boston Strong as their mantra, a group of journeymen having career years led the way. This year was just a little bit different as the Sox set a franchise record with 108 wins in the regular season and won the division running away. Now they’re just four wins away from their 4th championship in the past 15 years.

You can also listen to Big Z and I preview the World Series on The 300s Podcast here.

Game Times:

  • Game 1 (at BOS): Tuesday, Oct. 23 at 8:09 p.m. ET on Fox
  • Game 2 (at BOS): Wednesday, Oct. 24 at 8:09 p.m. ET on Fox
  • Game 3 (at LAD): Friday, Oct. 26 at 8:09 p.m. ET on Fox
  • Game 4 (at LAD): Saturday, Oct. 27 at 8:09 p.m. ET on Fox
  • *Game 5 (at LAD): Sunday, Oct. 28 at 8:15 p.m. ET on Fox
  • *Game 6 (at BOS): Tuesday, Oct. 30 at 8:09 p.m. ET on Fox
  • *Game 7 (at BOS): Wednesday, Oct. 31 at 8:09 p.m. ET on Fox

*If necessary

Betting Lines:

  • Opening odds from the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook
    • Red Sox at -135 and the Dodgers at +115.
  • Gambling.com World Series MVP prop bets
    • Mookie Betts +550
    • Chris Sale +600
    • JD Martinez +650

Top Storylines:

ESPN noted in its preview that if the Red Sox win the World Series it may be one of the most impressive runs of all time. After winning 108 games to set a franchise record, they went through TWO other 100 win teams to reach the World Series.

Only five teams since 1961 have won at least 108 games and won the World Series:

1998 New York Yankees: 114-48
1961 New York Yankees: 109-53
1970 Baltimore Orioles: 108-54
1975 Cincinnati Reds: 108-54
1986 New York Mets: 108-54

The Red Sox, arguably, will have had the toughest trek through the postseason of any of these teams. Only the ’98 Yankees had to go through three rounds, but the Red Sox had to knock off the 100-win Yankees and 103-win Astros just to reach the World Series — and did so by winning seven of nine games.

Mookie at Second Base?

He’s actually played there more than I thought in his career with 15 games played at 2B, but only about half of one game since 2014. So besides the almost non-existant experience at the major league level, this is moronic for one reason; he is an ELITE outfielder. As Big Z said on The 300s Podcast, you literally hit the instant replay jackpot and stole an out with this play in Houston.

Mookie is such a great outfielder that Cowboy Joe West ruled, from 50 yards away, that he was definitively going to make one of the greatest catches in postseason history were it not for fan interference. Not to mention his canon of an arm that led to him hosing down Jose Altuve at second base, his other leaping catch to rob a HR etc. etc. Yea, lets not get cute boys.

Who Plays and Who Sits in Los Angeles?

With the NL stripping us of the DH, who are you sitting? JD Martinez and Mookie obviously aren’t sitting so are you benching the .185 hitter in Jackie Bradley Jr. and putting Andrew Benintendi in center or are you riding JBJ’s hot streak? I mean when that guy gets hot he gets HOT, he’ll hit .150 for 4 months then hit .500 for a month straight so maybe he’s in the middle of one of those heaters? Lets play it by ear and see how JBJ and Benintendi play at Fenway in Games 1 and 2, but I’m leaning towards benching Bradley in LA and using him as a defensive replacement late in games. 

Chris Sale’s Health

He already was dealing with the shoulder issue and now he was out with this bizarre stomach issue. The beat guys were saying that he was walking around with a bottle of pedialyte and that he even lost weight somehow. I don’t know how you can’t be concerned. We saw in his first start off the DL against the Orioles were he struck out 13 guys…before relapsing and only throwing about 15 innings the rest of the season, and then again in his first postseason start where he started off lights out against the Yankees before faltering. I think with the extended time off Chris Sale will look pretty good in Game 1, but to expect much more than that afterwards is asking a lot considering all the ailments he’s been dealing with. 

Has David Price Actually Exorcised His Playoff Demons?

I hope so. I hope whatever mechanical adjustment he figured out before his Game 5 start gives him the confidence and the momentum he needs to repeat the success of his last start. However, he is currently sporting a 5.11 ERA this postseason, which is actually even worse than his career 5.04 ERA in the postseason. Soo I think its a shaky bridge that I am cautiously optimistic about, but far from confident.

YUCK Stickers are now available just in case.

Manny Machado, Still a Dirtbag

Matt Barnes still wants Machado dead for possibly ending Dustin Pedroia’s career last year with a dirty slide.

“You’re talking about a play in which Pedey still hasn’t played since then, really,” Barnes said per The Eagle-Tribune. “When you take out a captain, a leader of a team, that’s not going to sit well with anybody. It kind of is what it is. You move on. I don’t see anything happening, I really don’t, but it doesn’t mean that we’ve forgotten about it.”

Big Z and I wondered aloud if the Sox get up big in a clinching game, do they send out Joe Kelly to just bean Machado in the ass to take care of some family business? Whether Pedroia wants it or not, justice will be served (again).

Yasiel Puig is GOOD for Baseball

In a sport full of late starts, long games, and older fans, Yasiel Puig is exactly what baseball needs. He is the anti-Mike Trout. He is fun as all hell to watch. While Peter Gammons might not exactly enjoy Puig rounding the bases after a HR telling everyone to suck it like he’s a member of DX, I sure as shit do.

Will We See Regular Season Kershaw or Postseason Kershaw?

Kershaw is essentially the west coast version of David Price. While he’s been pretty good in the playoffs this year with a 2-1 record and a 2.37 ERA , overall for his career he is 9-8 with 4.09 ERA in 141 postseason IP. His career postseason stats are about a full seasons worth with 28 starts, which is a good sample size. While a 4.09 ERA is far from disastrous, it’s definitely not the quote unquote best pitcher of our generation. Kershaw seems to be on a roll this year, but I would not be surprised if a guy from Texas who’s played his entire career in LA suddenly pitching in 30 degree weather in Fenway in October rattles him.

Lets All Just Appreciate Justin Turner

As a fellow redhead with a Wildling-esque beard, I am a huge Justin Turner guy. Really putting redheads on the map the past couple of years.

MVP

I’m going with Nathan Eovaldi because he has been an absolute saving grace for this Red Sox team and he is a guy that will pitch Game 3 and a potential Game 7, not to mention any random relief appearances Cora utilizes him for. I know only 3 pitchers have won the World Series MVP in the past 15 years, but if you win Game 3 and Game 7 it would be hard to not give that guy the award. It also doesn’t hurt that Gambling.com has Eovaldi at +2200 to win series MVP!

Unsung Hero

I’m going with Rafael Devers. Cora played the matchups with Devers in the ALCS, which had Devers on the bench to start the series before giving way to the young gun in Game 5 and he took Verlander deep. So I know Cora has been leaning on the analytics but Devers has looked great in his limited playing time. Granted he only has 20 AB’s, Devers is actually second on the team in Batting Avg at .350 so I think he’s a pretty good bet to make an impact in this series.

 

Official Prediction

I’m picking the Red Sox in 7 games. They just have the IT factor this year, they have the juice, whatever you want to call it. The bullpen is cobbled together with bubble gum and duct tape, they have a guy in Ryan Brasier who was pitching in JAPAN last year holding it down as the setup man. Whatever they’re doing, it’s working AND apparently Eric Gagne has fixed Craig Kimbrel. Not to mention every decision Alex Cora makes just seems to be the right one. So if the Red Sox can get decent starts from their rotation then I think the offense carries this team the rest of the way. 

Sox in 7.