Tag: Dave Dombrowski

Three Burning Questions for the Red Sox on First Official Day of Spring Training

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With most of us still flying high from the Pats’ big victory just a week and a half ago, it might be pretty easy to forget that our other reigning champion sports squad is set to begin work on their title defense this week.

On Wednesday morning, your world champion Boston Red Sox held their first official spring training practice down in Fort Meyers. (Even though a lot of players arrived last week and have already been practicing – including Chris Sale, who has been “cleared to have a normal spring training,” according to Dave Dombrowski [h/t ESPN Boston]. That’s big news for the lefty after last year’s late-season injury woes.)

After an offseason where the Sox literally made zero noteworthy moves besides resigning Nathan Eovaldi, we’re pretty much going to see the same team this year. Gone are Joe Kelly and Craig Kimbrel (who is still a free agent, however, and could potentially return at the right price, per The Boston Globe‘s Pete Abraham):

But other than that it’s going to be the same dudes you rooted for throughout all of last season. That’s certainly not a bad thing.

Still, that does not mean that this team comes without questions or concerns. Yes, we haven’t even passed Valentine’s Day yet, and the season is still over a month and a half away, but there are definitely some things that Cora & Co. need to figure out before the real action begins in Seattle on March 28:

(Who’s Going to Replace Kelly and Kimbrel?)

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To be honest, even though Joe Kelly had one of the most dominant posteason runs any Red Sox reliever has ever had (11.1 IP, 1 ER, 13 Ks), he’s actually been a pretty lackluster bullpen guy for most of his career otherwise. After he signed with the Dodgers in mid-December, I let you all know that I wasn’t really that worried, and there’s definitely enough already in tow to replace him and his 4.39 ERA from last season.

But Kimbrel? Sure, I laughed at the fact that he thought he was worth $100 million when he first hit free agency. And yes, he also had a horrible 2018 postseason and is prone to meltdowns every now and then. But besides an abnormal 3.40 ERA in 2017, the man has posted sub-2.75 ERAs in every other season in his nine-year career. Overall, his career ERA is actually 1.91, and he has lead the league in saves four times. So, not only do I think the Sox should try to resign him at what should now be a much more reasonable price, but if they don’t then they are going to be missing a pretty big piece at the end of games this year.

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The team’s got some decent bullpen depth from which to draw, especially after the emergence of guys like Ryan Brasier last year and the low-risk re-signing of Carson Smith (a move I made sure to highlight and highly endorse), with the former being my choice to replace Kimbrel if he doesn’t come back. And, there was also this from ESPN’s Dave Schoenfield earlier today:

“Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said the team’s plan to replace Craig Kimbrel as closer will be ‘somebody internal.’ He said — at the risk of sounding old-fashioned — that he does prefer one guy rather than a bullpen by committee approach and mentioned Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Tyler Thornburg and Steven Wright as possibilities. As for the chance of still signing Kimbrel: ‘I can’t get into the conversations with free agents.'”

This will remain the biggest question throughout all of spring training, and we may not get an answer for quite a while.

(Can We Trust the Rotation?)

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Considering the Red Sox as a team led the league in pretty much every notable batting category last year, it should be no surprise that the second question featured here also has to do with pitching.

Chris Sale, David Price, and Nathan Eovaldi came up huge in the postseason last year. Rick Porcello, too, was very solid, allowing just two runs in 11.1 innings outside of a rough Game 4 in the ALCS. But each one of these guys did not come without their struggles during the regular season last year:

  • Sale suffered his late-season shoulder issues, which caused him to be shut down or severely limited over the last two months of the season. (He pitched a total of 14 innings from July 27 through the end of September.)
  • Price may have finally exorcised his big-game demons last October and has posted sub-4.00 ERAs in each of the past three years. But still, ya never know with this guy.
  • After winning the Cy Young Award in 2016, Porcello has two straight seasons of ERAs over 4.20.
  • Eovaldi is another unproven guy who really didn’t shine until September (and, of course, October). He had pretty much been a flame-throwing mid-4.00-ERA type of guy for most of his career before coming over from Tampa Bay last season.
  • And, even though he’s not mentioned above, this is also a huge year for lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. The 25-year-old pitched to a solid 13 wins and 3.82 ERA last year, but had been wildly inconsistent – both physically and emotionally – beforehand, so he’s no guarantee yet. However, apparently he’s now “in the best shape of his life,” so that’s a good start.

I don’t think there’s necessarily a ton to worry about as of right now, but things could take a turn for the worst pretty quickly here if things don’t go right. Adding a little more depth in this area would be a smart move if Dombrowski can make something happen this spring.

(What’s Up with Dustin Pedroia?)

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Remember this guy??!! Ya know, the diminutive little spark plug who used to be the heart and soul of the franchise? He’s also a four-time Gold Glove-winning second baseman who won Rookie of the Year AND a World Series in 2007. He then won the MVP award the following season, before also helping the team win another World Series with another All-Star season in 2013.

But after playing in just three games last season, and only 105 the year before that, it seems as though he’s almost been forgotten entirely. (Your team achieving a record-setting, championship season without you being involved whatsoever can do that to a guy, I guess.) In fact, many people I’ve talked to have just assumed he was “done.”

If you know anything about Pedroia, though, you know there was just no way he was going out like that. And if anyone can come back and prove all the haters wrong at 35 years old, it’s this dude.

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However, if we’re being honest, it’s not going to be easy. It’s not as though Pedroia is dealing with some freak knee injury he got sliding into second base; rather, it’s an issue with the cartilage that was originally only supposed to keep him out for just a few months last season. Let’s just say things didn’t work out according to plan. Dombrowski also added this little tidbit on the subject this week:

“We’re still not looking at a 150-game player. We’re hopeful that he’s a 125-game player at this point. We do feel we have some people who are solid and can fill in. To fill in if (Pedroia) plays 120, guys like (Brock) Holt, a guy like (Eduardo) Nunez coming over there. Even some depth with Tzu-Wei Lin in our organization we like a great deal. They are also capable of playing more games, that combination. But we’re hopeful that Pedey will be the guy. The main guy.”

Fortunately for him, the second base job still seems to be his for the taking, and he’ll get every chance to reclaim his rightful spot on the field with a solid spring. But as alluded to in the quote above, he’ll face some stiff competition. Yet if he can get the Laser Show going again, it’s going to be tough for anyone to stop him.

There are very few players in Red Sox history I love more than Pedey. Here’s to hoping he bounces back with some great spring ball down in the Sunshine State.

As far as the rest of the team goes, I’d say there are very little questions on offense with this loaded lineup, and I’ll save all the upcoming contract talk for another time. I’m sure some more questions will pop up along the way this spring, but for now let’s just enjoy the fact that the champs are back in action and good weather is just around the corner. Baseball is back, baby!

Red Sox Have Re-signed Nathan Eovaldi

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WEEI – The Red Sox are reportedly nearing a deal with free agent right-hander Nathan Eovaldi on a four-year contract that could be worth nearly $70 million…Eovaldi, 28, was a tremendous find at the trade deadline, going 3-3 with a 3.33 ERA after arriving from Tampa, and then following it up with a dominating postseason that saw him go 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA. He delivered one of the signature performance of the playoffs, even though it ended in defeat, when he tossed six innings of three-hit relief in an 18-inning loss to the Dodgers in Game 3 of the World Series.

While the terms of the deal are still unknown, most of the big baseball writers have been speculating 4 years at $70 million, which is $17.5 per year. It might sound like a lot for a guy who was a midseason pickup that had a really strong second half and an incredible playoff run, but I’m totally on board with this move. The Red Sox needed Nathan Eovaldi for this upcoming season, but more importantly for the next few years.

The Red Sox rotation is stacked, but is also top heavy and comprised of expensive guys in contract years. Chris Sale has had his last 2 seasons start off incredible only to stumble down the stretch due to injuries and is a free agent after this upcoming season. Are the Red Sox prepared to give him a $200 Million contract? I’m not so sure. Rick Porcello is also in a walk year and while he’s had his ups and downs over the years, he will be a 30-year-old free agent with a Cy Young Award under his belt next winter so don’t expect him to come cheap. That leaves the Red Sox with David Price, who has ranged from trainwreck to solid to elite so your guess is as good as mine for what to expect, but Price is signed for the next four years at least. After that the Sox are left with Eduardo Rodriguez, who seems to miss extended time with injuries every year, and a bunch of Triple-A pitchers.

Simply put, the Sox need someone to anchor this staff alongside David Price beyond just next season.

So the Sox needed to make this move. I’m less concerned with Eovaldi’s injury history as I am with projecting future performance. Even though he’s had two Tommy John surgeries, as we’ve said here before; that’s basically a prerequisite to being a great starting pitcher these days. Alex Speier dove a little deeper on that issue:

“The idea that a two-time Tommy John recipient could be seen as something other than an extreme risk illustrates how drastically the landscape has changed over the last decade…the chief risk appears to be whether a pitcher returns to his prior level from a second Tommy John surgery. There is a survival effect. Roughly 20-25 percent of pitchers never make it back from a first or second Tommy John, but those who do appear at no greater risk than other pitchers who hadn’t undergone even a single Tommy John procedure.”

Would I be shocked to see Eovaldi’s performance regress back to the mean next year though? No I would not. But at 4 years this deal is a drop in the bucket for John Henry and the Red Sox. Dave Dombrowski loved what he saw, primarily because Eovaldi saved his bacon and the Boston bullpen en route to a World Series title. Now Dealer Dave likely smells blood and sees a ripe opportunity for the Sox to repeat (and clinch Dombrowski’s spot in the Hall of Fame) so why pinch pennies now? Welcome back to Boston, Nate.

Former Red Sox Top Prospect Yoan Moncada Likely to Switch Positions; Dombrowski Deserves Credit for This Move

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Yahoo – White Sox second baseman Yoán Moncada is “open to a position change,” according to comments made by GM Rick Hahn over the weekend. It appears to be something the club is considering as they head into their third rebuilding year, though Hahn noted that the decision would hinge on any pickups the club makes over the offseason.

It’s not the first time Hahn or Moncada has addressed the potential shift away from second base. After the 23-year-old infielder closed out his 2018 run with 21 errors and a .963 fielding percentage (eclipsed only by the Reds’ José Peraza and Red Sox’ Rafael Devers, the latter of whom committed 24 errors with a .926 fielding percentage), Hahn told reporters he believes Moncada’s athleticism will make him an “above-average defender at other positions.” Moncada himself said he’d be willing to move back to third base, a position he occupied during his rookie campaign with the Red Sox in 2016. There’s also a possibility that he could be considered at shortstop or center field, although he has yet to play either position at the major league level.

Full disclosure: I am a HUGE prospect guy. I hem and haw about every trade the Red Sox make that involves high level prospects. For better or for worse, I am very reluctant to include top prospects in a deal. Maybe it’s the Theo Epstein in me, who knows? Big Z is the exact opposite when it comes to handling prospects, but it’s what makes us different that makes us great, guys.

I think Dealer Dave has as much regard for individual prospects as a college kid has for what brand of beer he drinks, but Dombrowski deserves credit for making the right decision here.

I have been fond of beating on the drum that Dave Dombrowski primarily makes moves that any of us could make like signing the most expensive free agents in David Price and JD Martinez or trading top prospects for premiere talent like Craig Kimbrel and Chris Sale. Something that I have yet to give him credit for though is making the absolute correct decision in the Chris Sale trade.

The Red Sox coveted Chris Sale for years and the season before they finally pried him away from Chicago, reports had mentioned the White Sox wanted Mookie Betts AND Andrew Benintendi in any deal.

Obviously that didn’t happen, but when the trade was finally consummated the Red Sox and Dombrowski essentially said to Chicago we can’t give you those two guys, but we can give you our *top* prospect in Yoan Moncada, who was also the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball at the time. And again, full disclosure, I was big on Moncada so this is far from revisionist history.

Some of my commentary aged better than others…

“I feel like Costanza after he ate one of Kramer’s mangoes from Joe’s fruit shop. You want to talk about excited? How about having a player waiting in the wings that many scouts say projects to be most similar to Mike Trout…Whether he sticks at 2B remains to be seen, Pedroia is signed through 2021 so that could be a logjam issue.” – April 25, 2016

So while Chris Sale has been lights out (when healthy), it was still hard to trade away a guy as talented as Moncada. Things haven’t really gone so well for him thus far though. While still only 23 years old, Moncada has been an unmitigated disaster to put it lightly.

In 901 Plate Appearances in 211 games over parts of three seasons, Moncada is batting .234/.319/.399. That amounts to a little less than two full seasons so it’s not a huge sample size, but Moncada also led the league in strike outs last season with 217 K’s, which is alarming.

But at least he can play defense right? Well, actually he made 21 errors at second base last year, good for third in the league.

Now Chicago has publicly broached the idea of moving Moncada to another position like third base, center field or even shortstop, which makes no sense. Shortstop is a much harder position defensively with a longer throw to first. It seems like the White Sox are just looking for somewhere to plant Moncada while they shuffle some roster pieces around. It’s been reported that the White Sox are going to court Manny Machado who could play either SS or 3B and they also have another first round pick coming up in the system that apparently is a stud 2B and Moncada seems like anything but a natural second baseman.

Now just to go back to me giving Dombrowski some credit for a second; the Red Sox could have very easily traded Benintendi as part of that deal instead. So lets take a look at how Benny’s numbers stack up when compared to Moncada.

Benintendi is nearly a year older than Moncada and has a bit more experience at the major league level with 1,437 Plate Appearances over 333 games in parts of three seasons. For his career, Benintendi is slashing .282/.359/.447. The power is about even so far between the two as Benintendi wacked 16 dingers to Moncada’s 17 last season. Whether you value it or not, Benintendi also topped him in steals 21 to 12 last year. I won’t get into RBIs because thats largely dependent on the team around you, which is garbage in Chicago. In another display of power, Benintendi also bested Moncada in doubles last season 41 to 32.

Benintendi has essentially been twice as valuable to the Red Sox with a career WAR of 7.0 to Moncada’s 3.5 (3.9 to 2.0 in 2018 alone).

So it would take some serious mental gymnastics to argue that Moncada has been or remains the better prospect thus far, especially with Benintendi playing such a vital role in the playoffs for a 108 win Red Sox team.

The best prospect Chicago got in the Sale trade now seems more likely to be Michael Kopech than it is Moncada. Kopech is the No. 4 overall prospect in all of baseball on MLB.com and looks like an absolute stud in the making. Just look at his MLB.com scouting report:

“Kopech throws as hard and is as difficult to hit as any starter in the Minor Leagues, which has prompted comparisons to Noah Syndergaard. His fastball, which sits at 96-99 mph, repeatedly hits triple digits with late run that keeps it off barrels. Hitters who try to sit on his heater get embarrassed by his upper-80s slider, which features two-plane break and is a plus-plus offering at its best.

Kopech just needs some refinement before he’s ready to pitch at the front of a big league rotation.”

Butttt he only threw 14.1 innings last year as he tore his UCL and underwent Tommy John Surgery because of course he did. So as big as I am on Kopech, his timeline was obviously pushed back a couple of years with the elbow injury.

Dombrowski swung and missed on the Drew Pomeranz – Anderson Espinoza trade, but he absolutely nailed the Chris Sale – Yoan Moncada trade and to that I tip my cap.

 

Red Sox MEGA Blog: What’s Next for the World Series Champions?

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The Boston Red Sox are World Series Champions once again and that feels so sweet on my finger tips as I type this from my cubicle. I was at the mall on Monday after work grabbing my fresh new champs hat and will be wearing that everywhere from work to the bar to Thanksgiving dinner. So make sure you enjoy the 4th Sox title in 14 years, but with a gaggle of free agents this winter and some serious question marks around a few core players, lets take a look at what’s next for the Boston Red Sox.

David Price

As we covered the other day, David Price has officially opted into the remaining four years and $127 Million of his Red Sox contract. After his excellent ALCS and World Series run it should come as no surprise he opted to stay. The guy seems to love his teammates, finally got over the hump in the toughest market in baseball, and is coming off a 108 win season and a World Series championship. Why leave now? Quite frankly, with Chris Sale’s health concerns, the Red Sox need him. But how will that contract age? Just about as well as you’d expect a 7 year $217 Million contract for a pitcher that will be 37 by the end of it. And that’s not a knock on Price at all, thats a knock on the cost of doing business in today’s MLB, especially for a team that said we don’t sign pitchers over 30 years old in 2014 only to then sign a pitcher over 30 in 2015 to a 9-figure contract.

Chris Sale

I am extremely worried about the longterm health of Chris Sale and not just because of the recency of his shoulder issues. This is the second year in a row that Sale has worn down and gone on the DL with shoulder injuries. Sale is absolutely lights out dominant and one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy, but at 6’6″ and “180” pounds staying healthy has proved difficult for the big lefty.

Lets look at his K’s/9 IP (Baseball Reference refers to this as S09) real quick just to get a sense of how much he is whipping the ball around because that number jumped *significantly* from his last year in Chicago to his first year in Boston. Sale averaged 9.3 SO9 in his last year with the White Sox in 2016, which jumped up to 12.9 in his first year in Boston and then jumped up again to 13.5 in 2018. That is huge and is especially significant because Sale is a guy that the White Sox had tried to tame a little bit. Chicago had tried to get Sale away from chasing strikeouts in order to get more innings out of the lanky lefty. I can’t find a direct quote, but I remember Sale not being a fan of the approach as it resulted in his lowest SO9 since his first full year in the big leagues. His last two years in Chicago were also his worst two years ERA wise, granted they were 3.41 and 3.34, but still. Some guys just need to let it rip.

The Sox are in a tricky position here because Sale is grossly underpaid at $15M in 2019 (if healthy), but it’s also his contract year. So Sale will likely be looking for a huge payday after making peanuts his whole career relative to his performance. Seriously, take a look at the bargain he’s been his whole career.

Sale has barely made more in his entire career ($44M) than Price made last season ($30M). Even if you’re not about the money, thats gotta piss you off a little bit. And if the Sox have legitimate concerns about his shoulder are they really going to pony up $25-$35 Million a year for another 30-year-old starter? They might have to.

Craig Kimbrel

Over his four years with the Red Sox, statistically Kimbrel was very good. He had 108 Saves and a 2.44 ERA with 305 K’s in 184.1 Innings Pitched. He made the All-Star team each of the 3 years he was with Boston saving 31, 35, and 42 games respectively. But he has shown a knack for the high wire act save, which reared its ugly head in the playoffs this year. Kimbrel is very good, even if he simply cannot pitch effectively in non-save situations or for more than one inning, but for a guy with a “potential path to the Hall of Fame” he is going to command big money. I just don’t think the Sox need to invest that into a closer as we’ve seen effective relievers and closers come out of nowhere year after year across the entire league. You had one on your own team this year as the Sox leaned heavily on Ryan Brasier as a 7th and 8th inning guy in the playoffs. A guy that was pitching in Japan last year. Dave Dombrowski seems to agree with that line of thinking as well.

“We do think that we do have a situation where internally we have a couple candidates to do that. (Matt) Barnes and (Ryan) Brasier are the top candidates,” Dombrowski said, via WEEI.com. “They’re not Craig Kimbrel at this point in their careers. But I don’t think we go into the closer by committee approach. So if it wasn’t Craig it’d be either them or we’d have to see what other alternatives existed outside the organization.”

So while he was very good while he was here, I think Kimbrel’s time with the Red Sox is over.

Dustin Pedroia

Alex Cora has already said Pedroia will hit lead off on Opening Day next year if he’s healthy. Pedroia has traditionally hit in the 2-hole (4,115 Plate Appearances) or as a No. 3 hitter (1,290 Plate Appearances) in a pinch, but Cora said it would be more out of respect to Pedroia if he’s able to come back.

“If he’s ready to go, I think that’s the only game he’s going to lead off next year. He’ll lead off Opening Day,” Cora said. “I told him that a few months ago because he deserves it. So Mookie won’t lead off one game next year. That’s the goal.” 

Stuff like this worries me because despite all the shit Pedroia took on the airwaves the last couple of years, like being snidely labeled “the little leader,” he still is the heart of this team. So Cora saying Pedroia deserves this ceremonial at bat has a certain “last hurrah” type feel to it. I’ve blogged about it in the past, but I think Pedroia’s days as a full time second baseman are likely done. Even Dombrowski had said that Pedroia’s knee was something they would have to monitor for the rest of his career, so we might start to see the beginning of Pedroia the platoon player next year if healthy.

Joe Kelly

The real life Rick Vaughn could be a guy the Sox turn to for closer duties in 2019 if he can replicate anything close to his 2018 postseason performance. I would think a player who has had such an up and down career with 2 Saves on his resume wouldn’t have a huge price tag, but you never know. For a guy that seemed to really buy into Alex Cora’s plan and became someone that fans adored after inciting a riot with the Yankees, I’d be shocked if he wasn’t on the Red Sox in 2019.

Drew Pomeranz

I’ve stuck to my take 2+ years that the Red Sox lost the Drew Pomeranz trade and I think I’ve generally been proven right. He seems like a really nice dude so I’m not gonna trash him (plus he can snatch beers out of the sky with the best of them), but I just never loved the move. Look I know the prospect we traded for him, Anderson Espinoza, blew his arm out and hasn’t done much in the minor leagues, but thats never been the point. The point has always been that Espinoza was the Boston Red Sox No. 1 pitching prospect and the No. 13 prospect in all of baseball at the time. In fact he’s still the No. 89 prospect in all of baseball despite not throwing a pitch last year. The Sox sold incredibly low on that kind of equity. You should have been able to get a much better return than a starter/reliever one-time All-Star with injury concerns in Drew Pomeranz. Not to mention a guy who was INJURED AT THE TIME as the Padres got caught fudging his medical records. All that combined with the fact that Cora acted as if Pomeranz was Boston Kryptonite and kept him securely fastened to the bullpen bench, I still think the Sox lost that trade.

Eduardo Nunez

He exercised his $5 Million player option for next season so he’ll be back. While Nunez had a bit of a down year, he showed in the playoffs why he is such a valuable bench player. He can play multiple positions, pinch hit, and generally plays balls to the wall all the time. If he can stay healthy this is a great guy to have on your bench.

Nathan Eovaldi

Have you ever gone to a concert of your favorite band and been so blown away that you legit started getting emotional? That’s what Nathan Eovaldi did in the playoffs this year. He was so good in the World Series that he literally made Rick Porcello cry.

He went 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA in 6 appearances (2 starts) with 22.1 Innings Pitched, 16 K’s, and only FOUR Earned Runs. Incredible. I was on the brink of tears when he wasn’t named MVP and I watched my +5000 lottery ticket float away, but still an incredible month from Nasty Nate. I would love for the Sox to bring him back, but Eovaldi likely pitched his way into a 9 figure deal with his dominant postseason run and I just don’t think the Sox have the payroll flexibility or the stomach to pony that up. He is a guy with two Tommy John surgeries already on his resume so that could be another reason the team shies away, but with Chris Sale already dealing with injuries, Eduardo Rodriguez constantly on the DL, and Rick Porcello on the last year of his contract next season, the Sox could certainly use another young stud pitcher (he’ll be 29 at the start of next year) for now and the future.

Steve Pearce

MVPearce would be a great fit to return and platoon with Mitch Moreland as the two formed a bash brothers duo this season. However, after putting on an absolute show in the playoffs and taking Clayton Kershaw out behind the shed to earn World Series MVP honors, it would not surprise me if a team threw way more money at him than the Sox are comfortable with. This is a toss up, but we’ll never forget the short time we shared together. Steve Pearce does owe me $2,500 after he stole the MVP away from my guy Nathan Eovaldi though…

Ian Kinsler

The Catching Situation

Sandy Leon, Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart are all under contract for next season so what does a team do with 3 catchers? Vazquez recently signed an extension, the team loves Leon’s game calling, and the Sox also made room for Swihart rather than dishing him at the trade deadline. Something has to give though, especially with Swihart all but requesting a trade earlier this season due to lack of playing time. You could probably get a prospect back for Swihart, but I think the team has tanked his stock to really make it worth it. I would expect the team to move on from Leon and integrate the switch hitting Swihart more into the mix while Vazquez takes over primary duties. Especially after Vazquez started 12 games in the playoffs with more than twice as many Plate Appearances as Leon.

We Hardly Knew Ye, Carson

Oh and the Red Sox finally kicked Carson Smith to the curb after his tour de force asshole performance back in May.

After throwing 14.1 innings and getting taken out of a game Smith slammed his glove and blew out his shoulder doing so. You may remember though that he threw Alex Cora and the coaching stuff under the bus blaming his workload for his injury. The guy who was never healthy was now throwing a fit in front of the media. Hit the bricks pal, best of luck.

The Barren Boston Red Sox Farm System

The Red Sox farm system is BARREN right now and everybody knew that would be the case from the second Dave Dombrowski walked in the door. It’s just how he operates. Trade any and all prospects to acquire proven MLB (preferably Tigers) talent. And it won you a World Series so I am not going to complain for one second about that. But, if you take a peek down the road, there are no reinforcements coming for this team. God forbid the Sox are unable to re-sign their own young studs like Mookie Betts and/or Xander Bogaerts. Not to mention David Price is 33, Chris Sale has had shoulder injuries 2 years in a row, Porcello is in a walk year, and the rotation behind them consists of JAGs like Brian Johnson, Hector Velazquez and Steven Wright.

Back in 2016 the Red Sox had the No. 1 overall prospect in baseball in Yoan Moncada and the No. 5 overall prospect in Andrew Benintendi leading the way for their six prospects in the Top 100. Obviously some of those guys were involved in the Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel trades, moves that helped you win the World Series. But, keeping an eye on this team’s long term viability, the Sox now only have ONE prospect in the Top 100 in Michael Chavis, who got popped for PEDs last year so your guess is as good as mine for how he’ll pan out.

One of Boston’s most exciting prospects, Jay Groome, was ranked No. 43 by MLB in 2017 before he blowing out his arm last year. Groome has the build that makes scouts drool as a 6’6″ lefty, but after Tommy John surgery won’t be back on the mound until late in 2019 at the earliest. He would likely start at Single A when he comes back from injury so Groome could still be years away from making an impact at Fenway. I still have sky high hopes for the kid, and not just because he was working out last offseason with current Red Sox ace Chris Sale. Just look at this MLB.com scouting report from 2016:

“Groome works with a 90-95 mph fastball that peaks at 97 with armside run, and he could throw harder as he gets stronger. Nevertheless, his best pitch is a curveball with power and depth that many evaluators believed was the best breaking ball in the 2016 Draft… Groome’s 6-foot-6 frame is built for durability and he uses it to generate good downhill plane on his pitches. His athleticism enables him to repeat his clean mechanics and fill the strike zone. He has the potential to become an ace if his makeup issues don’t get in his way, and he could be the best pitcher signed and developed by the Red Sox since Roger Clemens.”

So there are a ton of questions to answer for this team, but first there are a ton of beers that need drinking and a ton of Schrute Bucks that need spending on all of the World Series Champions swag.

Is Dave Dombrowski the Smartest Man Alive or Did He Kinda Sorta Get Lucky?

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This will be one of the most fiercely debated questions when we look back at the 2018 World Series. Is Dave Dombrowski the smartest man alive for the way he built this team or is he just lucky?

Before the playoffs started everyone, myself included, ripped Dombrowski for not making the “big name” move and getting an arm for the bullpen at the trade deadline. And it was a completely justifiable question as this team’s relievers were struggling bad down the stretch. The only guy that you could trust was essentially Craig Kimbrel, who ironically enough you could not trust in the playoffs. Then the playoffs come and they turned into the ’98 Yankees. Some real Freaky Friday shit.

Ryan Brasier, formerly of the Japanese League, became a dominant 7th/8th inning guy out of absolutely nowhere. Joe Kelly went from blowing the first game of the year to excellent to benches clearing brawl spark plug back to awful during the season and almost didn’t even make the postseason roster. Kelly morphed into a triple digit hurling shutdown setup man. And Nathan Eovaldi, who was coming off his SECOND Tommy John Surgery and who the Sox acquired for the immortal Jalen Beeks(!), became “The Rover.” The ultimate weapon out of the bullpen. I honestly don’t know if the Sox win the Series without Eovaldi. For my money (literally) he should have been World Series MVP, which he probably would have won if the Sox took the 18 inning affair in Game 3.

Now my main point is whether we’ll look back at this championship and praise Dombrowski for being a genius with moves like adding Eovaldi and World Series MVP Steve Pearce. Incredible moves. Or will we look back and say wow I can’t believe that actually worked out.

I can’t help but imagine Dealer Dave as Happy Gilmore after this championship run though. Looootta luck involved.

Dave Dombrowksi:

Plus I would argue most, if not all, of the credit should go to Alex Cora. The way he managed that bullpen was absolutely flawless, if not dangerous. I heard Cora use the phrase “All in, all the time” and it just perfectly captures what this team was doing. From the very first game in the ALDS, Cora was bringing out starters rather than trust it to a traditional bullpen guy. He had David Price starting, relieving, or warming up in just about every single World Series game, then brought in their ace in Chris Sale to close it out. You just don’t see that.

So yes ultimately Dombrowski’s moves paid off in the end, but without Alex Cora and all the shrewd managerial moves he made, I think this team falters much earlier on and Dombrowski is on the hottest of hot seats.

PS – Jon Wallach made a great point on Toucher and Rich this morning. It looks like Cora may have established the new norm for how to manage a bullpen in the playoffs. You never see this habitual usage of starters in the playoffs outside of Game 7 scenarios. Now, as Wallach said, you could very easily wreck your staff by the sheer amount of usage, but hey it worked.

MLB Trade Deadline Day: Red Sox Trade for Second Baseman Ian Kinsler

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In the midst of walking off with their 75th win of the season, the Red Sox and Dave Dombrowksi were working the phones and acquired second baseman Ian Kinsler from the Angels while most of us were sleeping.

The Sox PR team wasted no time in announcing the trade as I got this email at 1:02 AM.

Now I know what you’re thinking, no, Ian Kinsler is not a relief pitcher. The Indians, Astros, and Yankees continue to load up on bullpen arms while the Sox are doubling down on whats gotten them this far; hitting the shit out of the ball. So while I would like to see the Sox acquire some arms for the pen, barring any deadline day deals it doesn’t seem to be a top priority for them.

I guess the thinking is you can just take whoever doesn’t make the playoff rotation and throw them in the pen with the rest of that motley crew. So take Nathan Eovaldi, Drew Pomeranz, and Hector Velazquez and have them handle some innings in the playoffs. It worked with David Price last year, but I’m also not crazy about throwing starting pitchers into high leverage relief situations in October and hoping for the best.

Anyways, Kinsler is a big name and a 4-time All-Star with more pop than your typical second baseman. Similar to my old favorite Dan Uggla, except Kinsler is actually a pretty slick fielder having won a Gold Glove in 2016. He’s not the same guy he used to be as he’s now 36-years-old, but I like the addition.

He’s batting a weak .239 on the year, but if you factor out a slow start to the season he’s been pretty good the past 2 months.

“In 51 games since May 29, the right-handed batter has hit .286 (57-for-199) with an .866 OPS, including .417 (20-for-48) with a 1.137 OPS in his last 13 games.”

Incredible irony in the move though as Kinsler is taking over for the injured Dustin Pedroia at second base, years after Pedroia took Kinsler’s job.

“Pedroia and Kinsler were teammates in college at Arizona State, where Pedroia took over Kinsler’s starting shortstop spot in 2002. Kinsler then transferred to Missouri the following year.”

For all the hype “Dealer Dave” gets he sure does love trading for the same players over and over again, having traded for Kinsler when he was with the Tigers in 2013.

Unfortunately this probably takes the Sox out of the running for old friend Adrian Beltre as the Kinsler move frees up Brock Holt and Eduardo Nunez to platoon at third in Rafael Devers’ absence.

We’ve got just a few hours before the Trade Deadline so we’ll keep our eyes peeled for any additional moves the Red Sox make today.

Yankees Add Stud Closer Zach Britton, Red Sox Continue to Do Nothing

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This is a headline that seems to be repeating itself over and over again like we’re in the damn Matrix. American League team x adds a weapon for the stretch run, Red Sox do nothing. The Indians added Brad Hand, the Yankees added Zach Britton, and the Astros continue to be on the hunt for bullpen arms with a deep farm system to deal from. Of course this all stems back to Dave Dombrowski absolutely gutting the Sox farm system.

Now those trades were made to acquire Craig Kimbrel and Chris Sale, which have worked out pretty well, but this is why I am pro-prospect. Big Z and I argue about this constantly on The 300s Podcast. He wants to dish prospects all day every day because most of them don’t pan out, which I understand. But in my opinion, prospects are more about their perceived value than their actual intrinsic value. They are poker chips. Some of them turn into Mookie Betts, others fizzle into Casey Kelly. So, no you can’t hold onto all of them, but to trade away so many of your top prospects in 2 years is just risky.

—Begin Pomeranz Rant—

This is why the Drew Pomeranz trade still bugs me. The Sox traded Anderson Espinoza, who was their top pitching prospect, straight up for the NL All-Star, who was in his first year as a starter and known to have injury issues. In 2+ seasons with Boston, Pomeranz has posted ERAs of 4.78, 3.84, and 5.70 this year.

Not to mention he’s hit the DL four different times since joining the Red Sox. Excellent trade, Dave!

Now Espinoza actually pitched pretty poorly in the Padres system before blowing out his elbow in 2017, but thats besides the point. I wasn’t against trading Espinoza because I thought he was the second coming of Pedro, I was against trading our top pitching prospect (and No. 73 prospect in all of baseball in 2016 after his first pro season) for a guy with an injury history (which the Padres’ GM was suspended for lying about) and a minuscule track record of success. Espinoza was a blue chip prospect and should have gotten a better return.

This is also why I’m always hesitant to trade from pitchers from the NL, unless they are studs with a pedigree because jumping from the NL to the AL East almost always adds a run onto a pitchers ERA. In the first half of 2016 with the Padres, Pomeranz had an ERA of 3.15, which ballooned to 4.78 for the Sox in the second half. Not impressed, Dave.

—End of Pomeranz Rant—

The Sox are an offensive juggernaut this year with a Cy Young candidate ace, pretty good starting pitching behind him, and a dominant closer. Outside of Kimbrel though their bullpen is a high wire act every night. So now the Sox, one of the best and most expensive teams in baseball, can’t make a deal for a Snickers bar because their farm system is full of JV players.

If they bow out early in the playoffs yet again because their bullpen implodes then Dombrowski should absolutely be on the hot seat. The guy who comes into town with his beautiful lettuce and does nothing but trade away top prospects and sign the highest price free agents hasn’t proved anything to me since he got here in 2015. Tony Mazz laid it out pretty well in this article from the other day. Not to mention, the biggest knock against Dombrowski over the years has been his inability to build a great bullpen. Great…

This team as currently constituted will not win a World Series, especially not with their direct competition adding weapons like Zach Britton right in their face. But, I don’t know what the Sox can really do aside from picking someone off the scrap heap and hoping to catch lightning in a bottle like they did with Doug Fister last year. If this team doesn’t make a significant move, wins 100+ games, and gets bounced in the first round again then someone needs to get fired.

Is This the End for Dustin Pedroia?

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ESPN – Boston Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia has doubts about whether he’ll be able to return this season as he continues to recover from major reconstructive knee surgery in the offseason. Pedroia, 34, returned to the lineup on May 26 but was back on the disabled list on June 2 with soreness in his knee. He is headed to Arizona to continue his rehabilitation treatment.

The Red Sox have not ruled Dustin Pedroia out for the year. In fact Alex Cora even said he expects to see Pedroia back on the field this year, but Pedey himself was much more cynical when asked about his return date.

“I’ve healed quick with every other injury I’ve had. But this is obviously different,” Pedroia told reporters Wednesday. “You can’t risk it. If I come back too early and the graft fails, then that’s it.”

That is scary. That sounds like a guy who is seriously concerned about his ability to recover from an injury. Forget returning to previous form, that is a guy who sounds like he might be done entirely.

It all goes back to the ominous quote from Dave Dombrowski last year when Pedroia injured his knee.

“The problem for Dustin is and will be, he has a bad knee. He’s had it for years. He’s going to have to deal with that and he does…but he has a bad knee that he’s going to have to watch and we’re going to have to watch for the rest of his career.”

At the time it was kind of out of left field. Sure we all knew Pedroia was constantly battling injuries, but I thought they were just an undersized dirt dog getting banged up from various ailments. Turns out it was a chronic knee issue and Dombrowski let it slip before any of the fans in town even realized.

So Pedroia seems to now be in wait and see mode as there’s not really much you can do to speed up recovery from a knee injury other than flying to Germany to get the A-Rod/Peyton Manning special sauce. For now he’ll chill out in Arizona and rehab at his own speed, but I doubt we see him back on the field at Fenway in 2018.

So if he does miss the rest of the year then what are the prospects for a 35 year old coming off a knee injury regaining his form next season? Can’t be great, right?

It’s something we discussed on The 300s Podcast on a recent episode; the days of Dustin Pedroia as your starting second baseman may be gone. Because when healthy, Pedroia can still absolutely mash and is one of the toughest outs in baseball, but therein lies the problem; Pedroia is rarely healthy anymore. Not even including the lost season that is 2018, in the past 3 years he’s played 105, 154, and 93 games. So in the past 3+ seasons he’s played more than 105 games once. Not a great trend.

The best option for Pedroia may be to accept a utility role and even then the Red Sox may be less than thrilled paying a guy $12-$15 million per year to play 75 games. But, hey that contract of 8 years for $110M was a fucking steal at the time he signed it and anyone who says otherwise is just lying to your face. Pedroia can still hit so slip him into the DH role a couple nights a week and maybe you squeak 100 games out of the former MVP. It’s not ideal, but it’s better than the 3 games he played in 2018 (so far).

PS – Let us never forget that Pedroia’s knee injury flared up and has refused to heal since one very specific incident and that was when that dirtbag Manny Machado spiked him sliding into second last year. If you want Machado on this team then you can’t drink from my canteen.

The 300s Podcast: Red Sox on Pace for 100+ Wins? Are You Team Brady or Team Belichick?

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The latest episode of The 300s Podcast is LIVE! Click here to listen or download on iTunes or Google Play.

On this episode Red and Big Z discuss:

-For a team on pace to win 100+ games I don’t feel overly confident about this Red Sox team in the playoffs.

-The Sox cut their No. 3 hitter and it took less than a week for it to blow up in their face with both Dustin Pedroia and Mookie Betts now on the DL.

-Is JD Martinez the Best Red Sox Free Agent Signing Since Manny Ramirez?

-How concerned are Red and Big Z about all this Patriots drama?

-Are you Team Brady or Team Belichick?

Less Than a Week After Cutting Hanley Ramirez, Red Sox Place Mookie Betts and Dustin Pedroia on the DL

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Solid plan guys. I understand keeping Hanley Ramirez may have just been a fit issue with fellow 1B/DH Mitch Moreland absolutely crushing the ball lately (.305 and 10 HRs), but you couldn’t find a way to make it work?

As much as I don’t want to see JD Martinez in the outfield, you know he wants to play the field so rotate him out there and get Hanley at 1B or DH and just wait out his recent cold streak. He was only hitting .259 with 6 dingers, but he was still the Sox No. 3 hitter. The guy can rake like no one else when he gets going so to just dust him because the *Boston Red Sox* are worried about $22 Million next year is insane.

In a hilarious turn of events the move blows up in their faces not even a week later with both Mookie Betts and Dustin Pedroia going on the DL. So now we’re relying on Brock Holt and Blake Swihart. Oh and the Sox also called up Sam Travis who was hitting a cool .213 in Pawtucket. Forgive me if I’m not jumping at those options over Hanley.

The Sox also signed veteran 1B free agent Adam Lind too, which would have been awesome if it were 2009. He’ll be emergency depth as the Sox have stashed him at Pawtucket while paying him what I can only assume is the veteran minimum. So its peanuts for a guy, who in fairness, did hit .303 in 301 plate appearances for the Nationals last year. I guess if you’re the Sox you’d rather pay a guy $500,000 to hit just above the Mendoza line than risk locking yourself into $22 million next year.

But have the Sox been penny wise and pound foolish? I would expect Mookie to not miss much time, but its impossible to say what will happen with Pedroia. He’s coming off an invasive knee surgery and will soon be 35-years-old. When healthy he’s still very productive and a tough out, but he’s rarely been healthy recently. Pedroia has played in more than 105 games just once in the last 3 seasons so thats not exactly confidence inspiring. Ideally the Sox would have another bat that could play 2B to fill in for Pedroia rather than trying to mishmash Hanley into the lineup around two other guys that play the same position. However, the Sox don’t have that luxury this year as Eduardo Nunez has crashed back to Earth hitting .259 with just 17 extra base hits on the year.

So long story short? Don’t cut guys that can swing the stick for no other reason than to maybe save a few bucks next year. Not if you’re the Boston Red Sox. Unless of course John Henry and co. are stuffing cash under the mattress to go after a guy like Bryce Harper or Manny Machado this offseason. If thats the case then I’ll print this blog out and eat it with a nice lemon zest for flavor.

PS – Its possible the Sox got rid of Hanley because he was just a total cancer in the clubhouse. I don’t know whether thats true or not, but Ken Rosenthal strongly implies that was a big reason. If thats the case, then do what you gotta do.

“Some with the team believe the removal of Ramirez from the clubhouse will create more room for others to assert themselves and become leaders,” Rosenthal said in a video on FOXSports.com. “One player who is a top candidate to assume such a role? J.D. Martinez. Dustin Pedroia is the only other prominent veteran among the team’s position players and he is back on the DL.”