Tag: Fantasy Football

Gridiron Tales Week 3 Continued: Austin (Ekeler) 3:16 Says Edition

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Chargers Austin Ekeler presents problems for Raiders as a receiver | Las Vegas Review-Journal

Thursday: 1-2 (-1.17 units)

Season: 1-7 (-6.17 units)

Recap: CMC getting hurt helped no one, but we wish him a speedy recovery. Mooney had an interesting stat line, recording 4 catches for 20 yards and TD… ugh!

First Sunday Pick: Austin Ekeler O54.5 rushing yards at KC (-115) +104 with 20% DK profit boost

Fact #1: The Chiefs have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to RBs through the first two weeks (260).

Fact #2: Ekeler has posted rushing totals of 57 and 54 yards, respectively this season.

Fact #3: Ekeler ran for over 90 yards in their first meeting last season.

Second Sunday Pick: Derrick Henry O102.5 rushing yards vs IND (-115) +104 with 20% DK profit boost

Fact #1: Henry’s last 3 rushing totals vs Indy: 149, 103 and 178.

Fact #2: Less you forge he ran for 182 on Seattle last week.

Third Sunday Pick: Davante Adams O86.5 receiving yards at SF (-115)

Fact #1: Adams went for 10-173-1 on this San Fran team last season.

Fact #2: Adams is also fresh off an 8-121-0 game on Monday vs Detroit.

I’m also going to sprinkle Adams anytime TD at -110 because he’s without one this season and that’s uncharacteristic as he hasn’t gone three straight games without a TD since November 2019.

Fifth and Sixth Sunday Pick: Matthew Stafford O26.5 completions vs Bucs (-120) +100 with 20% DK profit boost and Robert Woods O5.5 catches (-115)

Fact #1: These two teams clashed last season with Goff at the helm for the Rams and he went 39/51, 376 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT, so using the transitive property, Stafford should be able to do that or better since he’s an upgrade from Goff.

Fact #2: Darrell Henderson is out with a rib injury today and no team has successful rushing outings vs the Bucs anyway, so McVay will be calling passing plays early and often. Last season they attempted just 20 rushes.

Gridiron Tales Week 3: Back The Cats In Houston Edition

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Fantasy football running back depth charts: Safest backfields, committees, handcuffs for 2021 - DraftKings Nation

Last Week: 0-5 (-5 units)

Recap: A lot of bad things occurred; nothing more, nothing less.

First Thursday Pick: Christian McCaffrey O5.5 receptions (-115)

Fact #1: CMC has logged 9 and 5 catches, respectively, over the past two games and the latter came through roughly three quarters of play before he got hurt and did not return.

Fact #2: The Texans have given up an average of 4.5 catches to RBs over the first two weeks.


Second Thursday Pick: Chuba Hubbard O2.5 rec yards (-115)

Fact #1: After playing just 11% of the snaps in Week 1 vs the Jets (a close game), CMC’s injury + the score, raised that percentage to 25% in Week 2 vs the Saints.

Logic point #1: Many pundits except this game to be a very one-sided affair and at just 2.5 rec yards, he literally needs just one catch to make this come to fruition.

Fact #2: This will somehow be a game-long sweat!

Third Thursday Pick: Anthony Miller O22.5 rec yds (-120)

Fact #1: It’s his Texans debut!

Fact #2: Both Danny Amendola and Nico Miller are out with injuries.

Fact #3: I’m skeptical on the Panthers Defense because their first test was Zach Wilson in his NFL debut and their second test was the Saints without eight coaches, most of which were on the offensive side of the ball.

Gridiron Tales Week 2: Dak to Life, Dak to Reality Edition

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What would you do if the Cowboys offered Dak Prescott to the Jets? - Gang Green Nation

Last season: 25-18 (58.1%)

It feels so good to be back. I took Week 1 “off” from making official picks because I didn’t want to write prop suggestions based on feelings because I’m a stats and research kind of guy. Week 1 was enough of a sample size + I’ll very much utilize player history where applicable.

First Pick: Dak Prescott O26.5 completions at LAC (-105)

Fact #1: In 5 full games under Mike McCarthy, Dak’s completion totals are: 25, 34, 37, 14 and 42 last week.

Fact #2: At 55 points, this is the highest O/U this week, so points are expected to come early and often.


Second Pick: Jalen Hurts O19.5 completions vs SF (-130)

Fact #1: In 4 full games as the starter, Hurts has compiled completion totals of 17, 24, 21 and 27 last week.

Fact #2: This is a 9ers team that let Jared Goff and the Lions creep back into last week’s Game with 38 completions on 57 attempts.


Third Pick: David Montgomery O63.5 rush yards vs CIN (-120)

Fact #1: In Week 1, Montgomery turned 16 carries into 108 yards and a score vs a Rams team that did not allow a 100-yard rusher all last season.

Fact #2: I know the Bengals held Dalvin Cook to 61 rush yards on 20 carries, but no one believes Cincy is on the same defensive playing field as the Rams.


Fourth Pick: Chris Carson O68.5 rush yards vs TEN (-115)

Fact #1: Carson turned 16 carries into 91 yards against the Colts, who allowed the third-fewest rushing yards to RBs last season.

Fact #2: In Week 1, the Titans allowed 53 rush yards to James Conner and 63 to Chase Edmonds. With Rashad Penny out, that’s even more breathing room for Carson to take more of the rushing attempts.


Fifth Pick: Christian McCaffrey O6.5 receptions vs NOLA (+105)

Fact #1: CMC caught all nine of his targets vs the Jets.

Fact #2: In 6 career games vs Nola, his reception totals are 9, 5, 8, 1, 9 and 7. New head coach, but the feeding doesn’t look like it will stop.

Gridiron Tales Week 16 Continued: A Thousand Miles (Sanders) Edition

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Eagles RB Miles Sanders week-to-week with lower body injury

Saturday: 0-2

Season: 24-15

Recap: See, what had happened was no one can predict injuries, let alone Stafford suffering an ankle injury early in the first quarter that would naturally sink his completions prop, while also ensuring that Leonard Fournette would only have to play the first half because the Bucs were on fire. We wish Matthew a speedy recovery.

But it’s a new day! Yes, it is!



The First Pick: Miles Sanders O80.5 rushing yards vs DAL (-112)

Fact #1: The Cowboys have allowed 146.2 rushing yards per game over the last 5 weeks, which is the 2nd-most yards allowed over that span.

Fact #2: The Cowboys have allowed 3 RBs (Dalvin Cook, Antonio Gibson and Gus Edwards) to each eclipse 100 yards on the ground.

Fact #3: Miles did eclipse 81 rush yards against the Saints (115), so we know he can do this with Hurts being more mobile than Wentz.


Second Pick: D.K. Metcalf U70.5 receiving yards vs LAR (-112)

Fact #1: Jalen Ramsey is on the other side of the ball.

Fact #2: The last time Ramsey was on the other side of the ball, Metcalf was held to 4 targets and 2 catches for 28 yards.

Fact #3: Metcalf has posted totals of 61 (vs NYJ) and 43 (at WFT) over the past two weeks.


Third Pick: Jalen Hurts O1.5 passing TDs vs DAL (+100)

Fact #1: The only QBs not to pass for at least 2 scores against Dallas this season are Jared Goff (Week 1), Daniel Jones (Week 5), Alex Smith (Week 12) and Brandon Allen (Week 14). Yes, that means Wentz threw 2 scores on Dallas in the first meeting!

Fact #2: Hurts is coming off a 3-pass TD game against Arizona and this game could very much mirror that one for him.


Fourth Pick: Justin Herbert O24.5 completions vs DEN (-112)

Fact #1: In the first matchup, he totaled 29 back in Week 8, albeit with Keenan Allen in the lineup.

Fact #2: Mahomes (25), Bridgewater (30) and Josh Allen (28) have each completed 25+ passes on Denver’s defenses over the last 3 weeks.

Fact #3: Herbert has completed 25+ passes in three of his last 4 games.

Bonus: With many receivers down in this Browns-Jets game, I have to put a sprinkle on fellow Owl Harrison Bryant to score a TD (+300)

Gridiron Tales Week 12: MNF Birds Edition

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Carson Wentz Finally Has What He's Needed All Along – Dynamic Young Wideouts – NBC10 Philadelphia

Sunday: 2-1

Season: 11-7

Highlight the Highs: Gallman took advantage of Cincy’s porous run defense, while Kirk Cousins dug himself out of a hole for a big passing day

Loathe the Lows: Daniel Jones had success passing on Cincy, but was unable to convert anything into a passing TD, which includes Evan Engram being caught inside the 5 and Darius Slayton not running full speed to track down a deep pass attempt… Oh and the hamstring injury in the second half didn’t help either.

Tonight, we have birds against birds. One team has faired well against the pass the season, while the other team is the league’s get-right pass defense for opponents.

The Pick: Carson Wentz O21.5 completions vs Seahawks (+105)

Fact #1: The Seahawks have allowed an average of 30 completions over their last 5 games

Fact #2: Piggybacking on that, Seattle has allowed the most in each of these categories over the past 5 weeks: completions (30), passing yards (1,668) and QB rushes (35).

Fact #3: Wentz has only reached 22+ completions once in his last 7 games, but the Hawks have allowed every starting QB they’ve faced not named Nick Mullens to complete at least 27 passes.

Sidebar: I know it “Hurts” to watch Wentz play this season and that his backup reportedly has a package this week, but that shouldn’t deter anyone from loving this as a get-right game for the Eagles offense.


The pick: Jalen Reagor O47.5 receiving yards vs SEA

Fact #1: Over the last 5 weeks, Seattle has allowed 105 receptions to WRs — the most in the NFL over that span — and 15 more than the next closest team (TEN)

Fact #2: Over the last 5 weeks, Seattle has allowed a league-worst 1,125 receiving yards to WRs.

Fact #3: Reagor’s snap % has increased each week since returning from injury: 73%, 88% and 93%. Couple this with 18 targets in those 3 games + Philly potentially chasing points and you have a recipe for potential Reagorbombs.

Gridiron Tales: Week 11 Thursday Night Football Edition

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Last week: 2-3
Season: 5-4

Let’s summarize what happened last week real quick.

Lone positive: Nick Chubb broke all gamblers hearts by running out of bounds and not scoring against the Texans, but for your boy, that long run cashed the over on his rushing yards prop.

Negatives: Jared Goff decided to continue to feed Josh Reynolds as much as he did Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, which meant we narrowly missed our reception totals for both players.

But like Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus say:

“Everybody makes mistakes
Everybody has those days (oh yeah)
Everybody knows what I’m talkin’ ’bout
Everybody gets that way (that’s right)”

And with that we’re onto Week 11 : Belichick voice

The pick: D.K. Metcalf Under 79.5 receiving yards

Unless there are major snowfalls or torrential downpours, I loathe unders because what’s fun about rooting for no points?! But tonight will be football at its best because we get Metcalf vs Patrick Peterson (again).

Flashback: Week 7 featured a classic that resulted in a 37-34 OT win for the Cardinals.

Fact #1: In that high-scoring affair, Metcalf was limited to 5 targets, 2 catches, 23 yards — all season lows.

Fact #2: According to NextGenStats, Peterson shadowed Metcalf on 42 of his 49 routes during that game. Metcalf recorded 1 catch for six yards on four targets with Peterson on him.

Fact #3: In 3 career meetings vs ARI, Metcalf has posted a combined total of 10 targets, 3 catches and 29 yards.

Fact #4: Metcalf has been held below 30 yards in two of his last four games (Other game: Jalen Ramsey).

Gridiron Tales: NFL Week 9 Picks

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Folks, let me introduce myself. I have gone by many names: Big Game, G-Smooth, Jimmy Lips, etc. But for these exercises, I’m just the dude who researches sports information and makes educated guesses on the outcomes of player performances. There will be facts. There will be jokes. And hopefully, there will be success. 

Let’s start out west in the Raiders and Chargers game.

Justin Herbert O270.5 pass yds (-115)

Co-Rookie of the Year favorite, Justin Herbert has been money both on the field and for fantasy owners this season. He has passed for over 271 yards in five of his six starts and the only time he didn’t was in his MNF showdown in Nola, when he finished with 264.

Over the past four games, the Raiders have allowed the following passing yard totals: 

  • Josh Allen – 288
  • Patrick Mahomes – 340
  • Tom Brady – 369 
  • Baker Mayfield – 122

Context is needed for the Mayfield outlier and it should be noted that the winds were howling and it was raining the entire game last Sunday.

DJ Chark O50.5 rec yds (-112)

Jaguars WR DJ Chark was not originally going to make the cut, but sometimes you have to wait (5 days) for good things to happen. 

Texans CB Bradley Roby is out on Sunday due to disciplinary reasons. 

“So what, James?!”

Well, that’s significant because that frees up Chark to roam a bit more comfortably. You’ll recall that Davante Adams just torched the Texans in Week 7 for 13-196-2. I am in no way implying that DJ Chark doo doo doo doo doo doo is Adams, but that Week 7 performance came with Roby on the field. 

Over the past 5 weeks, the Texans have allowed just under 200 rec yds per game to WRs and the 2nd-most TDs to that position over that span (9).

Sterling Shepard O4.5 catches (-118) and O54.5 rec yds (-112)

I know what you’re thinking: “James, I don’t even know you, and yet I can tell this is a homer pick.”

Hear me out with these quick facts, though:

-Shepard has 18 targets over the past two games

-Shepard has has gone over 54 in each of those contests

-Shepard has 6+ catches in three of his four games this season

-WFT has allowed 3 WRs (Kupp, Woods & Cooper) to go over 54 yds in the last 3 gms

So this may very well be a homer pick, but it's a well-researched pick.

The 300s Fantasy Football Round Up – Week 5

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Can you believe we are already more than 1/4 of the way through the season? Pretty crazy considering it feels like yesterday it was June and we were DYING for football. I mean people, when we began this season McKayla Maroney wasn’t even back on IG! Crazy stuff.

Anyway, let’s get to how The 300s writers room did in fantasy football this week.


Joey B (0-5)

Another week and another loss. My team had it’s best squad yet and it just wasn’t enough. Squandered huge days from Thielen and Chark, to name a couple. We’ll try and get them next week.

Dom (2-3)

Another Rough Week for the Nerfherders. I went up against Watson, the Philly D and Thielen, so that makes me feel a little better, but my team did not show up and couldn’t even muster 100 points. I blame the Rams, as their defense has been nonexistent and Brandin Cooks got knocked the F out, but I need me a bounce back week ASAP.

Lippa (2-3)

I have always been a big Sammy Watkins stan, but you have to know there’s always going to be those weeks each year where he’s active and gets hurt on the first drive and gives you a bagel. Well, this was that week. That damn hammy is at it again. I’m at 2-3, but I have the least amount of points in the league which is quite worrisome. Tight End has been an absolute wasteland for me for the most part as I just can’t find anyone to get me good production from the spot.

Papa G (who refuses to ever send his record, 4-1)

Lost in my main league for the first time this weekend. Very lackluster performance from the troops. Lamar Jackson gave me his first dud performance as well. Oh well, at least Will Fuller 5 put up a massive 54 points for me in my other league. Insanity.

Red (Who also never sends me his record, 1-4)

I have scored more points each week for the last 4 weeks in a row and had my highest scoring week yet. Unfortunately I played the 3rd highest scoring team this week and lost by nearly 30 points. DJ Chark has been my best fantasy pickup in years and his 32 points along with Cooper Kupp’s 22 meant nothing since my opponent had 37 from Matt freaking Ryan, 37 from Michael Thomas, 27 from Josh Jacobs and 14 from his kicker. I’m about ready for The 300s Fantasy WNBA League to start back up…

Mattes (4-1)

I’m just waiting for the inevitable crash and burn, but I am FLYING HIGH right now. Besides last week’s heartbreaker, my team has continued to straight steamroll my competition. I’m currently sitting in first place at 4-1, I’m second in the league in the points overall, and goddamn it feels good. Dalvin and Thielen continue to be an unreal 1-2 RB/WR combo. I didn’t even start Dak this week either (went with Dalton against the Cards instead), and he’s set up with some real cupcake matchups in the coming weeks. Breida also had a monster game, and he’s locked in as one of the league’s best running offense’s key contributors. (Also, how bout that sneaky Auden Tate play as my second FLEX. 😎) Still got Kerryon, Robert Woods, Kelce, and a solid bench as well. Again, I still can’t help having this sinking feeling in my gut, and I’m going against the No. 1 team in the league this week. But for now, WEEEEEE!!!!

The 300s Fantasy Football Round Up – Week 4

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I feel like each week I’ve said something along the lines of “we now know what we have” in terms of our fantasy teams and players but doesn’t it feel like after Week 4 we know the same about overall, actual NFL football teams? Like at this point we know who is good or could be and who is ass. It’s an interesting place to be only 1/4 of the way through the year.

Still, weird things continue to happen. The Pats got more from the Bills than we thought they would and Mason Rudolph won a professional football game. Strange times indeed.

Anyway, let’s take a look under the fantasy football hood and see how we did.

Lippa (2-2)

Rough week for your boy as I got no touchdowns outside of my QB. Usually a recipe for disaster, especially when I was going up against Kyle’s first place team. We’ve got to take a serious look at this squad going forward as it’s full of underachievers. Although it’s only a matter of time until Sammy Watkins pops off again. That offense is too good. We’re going to have to back into the waiver bog full of Daltons and Cousins (ew!) for a QB again with Stafford on bye. Perhaps it’s Gardner Minshew SZN, we shall see.


FUCKING Red (more on that later) (1-3)

Ya boy finally got on the board with his first W of the year and it could not have come at a better time. 0-3 is a hole, 0-4 is a death sentence. So shout out to Davante Adams and his 27 points that came at the expense of a toe injury so this win might end up actually sinking my season in the long run to be honest. Also Austin Hooper continues to be one of the best TE’s in the league with another 17 points after doing nothing the first two weeks of the season. Roller coaster ride engaged.

Dom (2-2)

Woof. I had a rough week. I was projected to win all of my contests this week, and ended up losing all of them. The Scruffy Looking Nerfherders finally came down to earth. James Conner broke out, but with TY out, Mack getting hurt, Brady and the Rams defense not showing up at all, I couldn’t even muster 100 points. Here’s to a Week 5 rebound.

Joey B (0-4)

I had a hard enough time waking up to find out I was now 0-4, then I received Red’s correspondence where he declared my record a death sentence. Hey fuck you pal. A week ago we were brothers in sorrow, now you’re sitting pretty with one win, swirling your brandy, throwing coins on the ground and watching me chase after them as they scatter. The silver lining is that I won my weekly office pool despite Andy Dalton’s best efforts to lose me both the fantasy week and the pot.

Papa G (4-0)

I’ve somehow arrived at 4-0. Lamar Jackson has leveled off these past two weeks so it’s really a team effort we got going on. Ekeler had what will probably be his last massive performance for me, now that Gordon is coming back. Conner has been meh lately given the Steelers’ lackluster start. I have to tip my cap to Lippa for having an off week, because without it I don’t see how I win this week under normal circumstances. No complaints from me though!

 

The 300s Fantasy Football Round Up – Week 3

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Blogger’s Note: Sorry for the tardiness this week. Big time snooze button week for the boys at The 300s. Leave us alone.

Welcome back. Week 3 has come and gone already. So have the playoff hopes of many of your favorite teams. Sorry I’m not sorry. Anyway, it was an interesting week in fantasy football, particularly within this modest enterprise. Losers became winners. Winners became losers. Some things didn’t change. Let’s check it out.


Biz Z (2-1)

Week 3 was a good week for the Z Men. A very good week. We rolled up 191 points. A personal record, and the highest one-week total in the 12-year history of my league. My only regret was starting Allen Robinson over Brandin Cooks. That kept me from hitting two bills. (Side note – my league’s scoring system is a bit goofy. Even in a standard Yahoo league I would’ve posted 159.)


Dom (2-1)

The Scruffy Looking Nerfherders did it again. Led by a 43 point showing by Keenan Allen and rounded out by solid games by Brady, Zeke, TY Hilton, Marlon Mack, I hardly noticed the duds by Conner and Andrews. Conner is really starting to frustrate me, but luckily I have the depth to wait him out or try to make a 2 for 1 trade. I’m only 5 points back of the league lead in points, so I’m feeling great going into Week 4.

Joey B (0-3)

I would have finally gotten on the board had I started recently acquired Rex Burkhead. But I did not. Did I err in starting someone else? Nope, just simply forgot to sub him in. “Things fall apart, the center cannot hold.”


Red (0-3)

Another week, another painful fantasy loss for your boy. This one was especially tough to swallow because my opponent jumped into the way back machine to pull out the W. I lost by 4 points after Lesean fucking Mccoy went off for 21 points like it was 2013 again. It also did not help that Ezekiel Elliott’s own backup outscored him by 5 points with garbage time points. Goddamnit.

 

Mattes (3-0)

My entire team dominated this week, and I ended up being the third-highest scorer yet again. That’s now three-straight top-three finishes, and I cannot believe how great of a start it’s been. Even my flexes showed out this week, as I got unreal performances from both Sterling Shepard and Rex Burkhead. Dak, Dalvin, and Kelce continue to roll; Kerryon is at least getting volume and is due to explode soon; Thielen finally got a bit more involved on Sunday; and my bench is still stacked, with Scary Terry McLaurin set to get his first start this week as well. I’m waiting for the inevitable crash and burn, but I’ll take 3-0!!!

 

Lippa (2-1)

A solid 138 point week from my team to move to 2-1. Things were looking a little hazy when Mike Evans scored a bazillion points in the first half of his game, but Tyler Lockett and Alvin Kamara balled out in the second half of that Seahawks/Saints game to get me up to 2-1. Next week QB streaming continues, as Josh Allen goes to the waiver bog, and Matthew Stafford, your time is now, as you face a porous Chiefs secondary.