Recap: See, what had happened was no one can predict injuries, let alone Stafford suffering an ankle injury early in the first quarter that would naturally sink his completions prop, while also ensuring that Leonard Fournette would only have to play the first half because the Bucs were on fire. We wish Matthew a speedy recovery.
But it’s a new day! Yes, it is!
The First Pick: Miles Sanders O80.5 rushing yards vs DAL (-112)
Fact #1: The Cowboys have allowed 146.2 rushing yards per game over the last 5 weeks, which is the 2nd-most yards allowed over that span.
Fact #2: The Cowboys have allowed 3 RBs (Dalvin Cook, Antonio Gibson and Gus Edwards) to each eclipse 100 yards on the ground.
Fact #3: Miles did eclipse 81 rush yards against the Saints (115), so we know he can do this with Hurts being more mobile than Wentz.
Second Pick: D.K. Metcalf U70.5 receiving yards vs LAR (-112)
Fact #1: Jalen Ramsey is on the other side of the ball.
Fact #2: The last time Ramsey was on the other side of the ball, Metcalf was held to 4 targets and 2 catches for 28 yards.
Fact #3: Metcalf has posted totals of 61 (vs NYJ) and 43 (at WFT) over the past two weeks.
Third Pick: Jalen Hurts O1.5 passing TDs vs DAL (+100)
Fact #1: The only QBs not to pass for at least 2 scores against Dallas this season are Jared Goff (Week 1), Daniel Jones (Week 5), Alex Smith (Week 12) and Brandon Allen (Week 14). Yes, that means Wentz threw 2 scores on Dallas in the first meeting!
Fact #2: Hurts is coming off a 3-pass TD game against Arizona and this game could very much mirror that one for him.
Fourth Pick: Justin Herbert O24.5 completions vs DEN (-112)
Fact #1: In the first matchup, he totaled 29 back in Week 8, albeit with Keenan Allen in the lineup.
Fact #2: Mahomes (25), Bridgewater (30) and Josh Allen (28) have each completed 25+ passes on Denver’s defenses over the last 3 weeks.
Fact #3: Herbert has completed 25+ passes in three of his last 4 games.
Bonus: With many receivers down in this Browns-Jets game, I have to put a sprinkle on fellow Owl Harrison Bryant to score a TD (+300)
Let’s summarize what happened last week real quick.
Lone positive: Nick Chubb broke all gamblers hearts by running out of bounds and not scoring against the Texans, but for your boy, that long run cashed the over on his rushing yards prop.
Negatives: Jared Goff decided to continue to feed Josh Reynolds as much as he did Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, which meant we narrowly missed our reception totals for both players.
But like Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus say:
“Everybody makes mistakes Everybody has those days (oh yeah) Everybody knows what I’m talkin’ ’bout Everybody gets that way (that’s right)”
And with that we’re onto Week 11 : Belichick voice
The pick: D.K. Metcalf Under 79.5 receiving yards
Unless there are major snowfalls or torrential downpours, I loathe unders because what’s fun about rooting for no points?! But tonight will be football at its best because we get Metcalf vs Patrick Peterson (again).
Flashback: Week 7 featured a classic that resulted in a 37-34 OT win for the Cardinals.
Fact #1: In that high-scoring affair, Metcalf was limited to 5 targets, 2 catches, 23 yards — all season lows.
Fact #2: According to NextGenStats, Peterson shadowed Metcalf on 42 of his 49 routes during that game. Metcalf recorded 1 catch for six yards on four targets with Peterson on him.
Fact #3: In 3 career meetings vs ARI, Metcalf has posted a combined total of 10 targets, 3 catches and 29 yards.
Fact #4: Metcalf has been held below 30 yards in two of his last four games (Other game: Jalen Ramsey).
At least he showed up. Defensive end Yannick Ngakoue did not report to the team facility with the rest of his teammates because he wants a new contract, a league source told ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
Ramsey said after June’s mandatory minicamp practice that his agent told him the Jaguars will not give him a contract extension in 2019. Roughly an hour later, Ramsey joked on social media that he’s going to “ask for so much money, they have to put me on lay-away.”
Us sports fans are sort of blatant contradiction. Lots of folks try to at least say out loud that at least 95% of their interest in sports lies in the games themselves. In their teams and wins and losses. In successes and failures.
They/we try and say that the rest of what goes into sports – the drama between players and coaches, contract disputes, off the field tomfoolery, doesn’t peak our interest. If it’s not the product on the field/ice/court it is of noooo concern to us. No sir.
At the same time, we all know that is a lie. We discuss amongst ourselves ad nauseum all that drama and gossip as if we just started season 1 of “Gossip Girl” and are trying to figure out the true identity of this mysterious scribe. It is the worst kept secret in fandom.
One of the specific items of interest of late concerns NFL players and their handling of dissatisfaction with their contracts. Arguably the league’s best Running Back, Le’Veon Bell, sat out all of last season losing an entire years pay, rather than play for the Steelers who he decided were not compensating nor treating him fairly. Before that season began, NO ONE would have believed you had you said Bell would forego the whole year to make his point. But he did.
So now it’s pure exhilaration watching contract disputes because the guy might show up or he may just take paddle boarding lessons in San Diego for a year. Who the fuck knows?
Which brings us to our headline. Jalen Ramsay, never one for the subtle or understated, showed up to training camp in an armored car. He quite literally showed his team that he wants them to “back the Brinks truck up” as a sign of his value. What. A. Move. It’s one thing to hold out, like his teammate Yannick Ngakoue. It’s another to tweet. Another to give interviews. But to roll up ready to get ripped off by Affleck, Renner, and the boys is a different play altogether.
Now obviously it is a massive question whether or not this pays off (GET IT!?) for Jalen Ramsey. Does forgoing a respectable luxury car, sports car, limo, or any other normative means of transportation in favor of hopping out of the back of an armored car drive the point home enough? Does it make Jaguars execs look at Ramsey and say, “you know what, he’s right. Pay him,”? I don’t know. Sure am glad I don’t have to make that decision though.
The rest of this preseason should be chock full of contract and roster drama. We’ll all find it fun, even when we pretend we’d rather talk about the 2-0 pitchers duel the Red Sox just put us through in 95 degree heat. We’ll all even know better.
Sunday was an ugly day for the New England Patriots. I was feeling pretty confident heading in and since I was in the great state of New Jersey I even placed a legal wager on my boys to pull it out. Welp, midway through the first quarter I knew I wasn’t getting that money back ever again. What seemed like a steamrolling by the Jaguars was a game that actually pivoted on just a handful of plays and missed opportunities, which I have painstakingly compiled below. Andddd go!
-Gostkowski missed another bunny in a key moment. Yuck, this guy is basically Tuukka Rask to me these days. He’s not as bad as sports talk radio says, but he’s definitely not as great as the team would have you believe. I know it’s only a handful of kicks he’s missed over the years, but they all seem to stick out in my memory because they all came in key situations. Regardless of his FG percentage, I do not want this guy anywhere near a game tying or game winning kick anymore.
-Refs missed a holding call against Gronk (and a potential roughing the passer) and the Pats were forced to kick on 4th down on their first drive, which as we mentioned above Gostkowski shanked with an absolute duck of a kick.
Gostkowski sends it OB right as Patriots end first drive pointless. Either the Telvin Smith jersey tug or Ngakoue “weight drop” should have been drive-extenders.
-A Jacksonville receiver fumbled a ball that jumped like a magic fucking bean right into another Jacksonville receiver’s hands for the luckiest of recoveries.
-This defense looked like swiss cheese all day, which is alarming, but it would be out of character for any Patriots fan to completely overreact. We’ve seen these early season losses when the team is still trying to figure it out. Whether it was the offensive line or the right linebacker rotation, we’ve seen it before and this year is probably no different especially when it comes to the wide receivers. Hell the Pats are like the high school jock who got a little too high on himself and dumped a perfectly nice girl (Kenny Britt), only to try and get her back after he’s put on the freshman 15 at college.
-Eric Rowe got roasted all day long. One of the plays against him was impossible to stop:
But he then immediately got beat for a TD he should have been able to defend.
-The defense got burned on 3rd down all game long as Bortles scrambled and found an open man or ran for first downs himself. Hell he’s got the third highest Avg Yards per Rush for a QB in the history of the league, just a tick behind Michael Vick.
-The defense was bad yes, but lets remember that it took a career day from Blake Bortles (29 of 45 for 377 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception). Literally the best game of his career to topple the Patriots, which kind of stung after I clowned Bortles all week long and lost a little coin in the process, but hey thems the breaks.
Thats the most concerning visual from the entire game. It kind of felt like Brady and McDaniels were starting to worry that this team might not be able to get them where they want to go. Hopefully it’s just the two of them blowing off some steam on the new guys making mental errors.
-Breathe and say it with me….Julian Edelman will be back in 3 weeks.
-I’m pretty sure Mattes and I have stumbled onto some black magic as the two guys we picked for team MVPs on The 300s Podcast, Rex Burkhead and Trey Flowers, have each gotten concussions in the first two weeks. Another guy Mattes picked as a DPOY was Deatrich Wise, who left the game late with what the announcers speculated as some jumbled finger digits. I’m not comfortable with this type of power.
-At one point midway through the second half the broadcast team pointed out that it had been a full 45 minutes since Tom Brady had thrown the ball. That cannot help gameflow and momentum.
-The non-call of the Jags jumping offsides on 4th down late in the game as the Pats tried to draw the penalty before punting. As the broadcast team, and TV shots of a fuming Belichick pointed out, the offensive lineman needs to touch the the defender if he jumps onside otherwise he can reset and the refs won’t call it. Romo even pointed out in the replay you can see the official reach for his flag before deciding against it. That one hurt.
-Before the season I predicted the Pats would split with the Jags and the Texans and be 3-1 after the first month. After Week 2, we’re exactly where I expected so unless they drop a game to the Lions and old friend Matt Patricia
or the Dolphins, who tried their very best to give away a W to the Jets on Sunday, then we’re fine.
-Don’t get it twisted, this defense is somewhere between hot garbage and a cold lunch, BUT its probably a little bit better than the defense that was one stop away from winning back to back Super Bowls last year. So it may not always be pretty, it will probably be infuriatingly bad at times, but at the end of the day it should be good enough to keep the team alive as long as TB12 is under center…..and not a second longer.
-After predicting the Pats would do their best to eviscerate Jalen Ramsey for trash talking Gronk (I may have said something about making his children orphans, but I forget) and they did nothing of the sort. The offense could not get into a rhythm and anytime they did, their momentum was killed by turnovers and missed kicks.
-Cordarrelle Patterson killed a drive when he tripped over the Ghost of Christmas Past on a key third down. After the Pats defense came up huge and forced a quick 3 and out, the offense came out onto the field and these next two tweets came over the span of 6 minutes.
A short series and a terrible punt. The #Patriots have to smell blood here. #Jags
Patterson caught a screen out of the backfield and looked like he had room to run, but his feet would not cooperate as he tripped over nothing and fell down to end the drive in its tracks.
Anddd 5 minutes after that Bortles threw a pick to try and let the Patriots back into the game. Anddd then 3 minutes after that Brady was strip sacked and that was the game.
So I just have to tip my cap to the Jaguars. It’s only Week 2 so I hope they aren’t riding too high….
“It kind of felt like we won a Super Bowl, man,” safety Tashaun Gipson said. “I won’t even kid you. It was that type of atmosphere and environment.
….because we’ve seen this story before (see: Chiefs 2014), but alas I tip my cap.
-Josh Gordon?? I say yes because of the pure ability coupled with the age; 27 whereas Dez Bryant will be 30 soon.
But obviously the guy has been dealing with issues for years. The last, and only, good season Gordon had came back in 2013. Back when Shane Victorino played for the Red Sox. Tom E. Curran makes a pretty compelling argument against the receiver as well:
He’s played in 11 of a possible 65 games since his absurd 2013 season (86 catches, 1,646 yards). He needs full-time supervision, it seems. Permissiveness, understanding and contorting for Gordon’s needs all offseason got the Browns . . . a game. One catch. A touchdown. And then they threw up their hands.
How’s that return on emotional investment and time spent? Not real good. It’s not inhumane to tell a troubled person he is unemployable, which Gordon has been and seemingly still is.
Besides, the Patriots were already down the road with one wide receiver project, Cordarelle Patterson. Then they added Corey Coleman this week.
If feels like they are at capacity when it comes to getting talented but hard-to-reach downfield receivers assimilated. This isn’t July when there’s nothing to do but conditioning, working on timing and getting on the same page. There are games every seven days now, game plans to install, fine-tune and execute.
The reality is, nobody’s got time for Josh Gordon right now.
Despite all that, the Patriots are at least doing their due diligence on Gordon according to Bert Breer.
So that may have been more than just a few pivot points, but I think its just an early season misstep for the Pats (one that I expected) as they build for the longterm and assess what their strengths and weaknesses are. Plus I feel much more confident going against the Jags in the playoffs going for the split, rather than trying to beat Sacksonville twice in one season.
Up next is old friend Matt Patricia and my worst fantasy draft pick in a decade; Matt Stafford.
Red is 100% right. Jalen Ramsey talking trash about Rob Gronkowski and Tom Brady does ring hollow, and the Patriots will probably hand him the beating of a lifetime this Sunday. Still, I can’t help but admire the balls on this guy.
The greatest quarterback and greatest tight end of all time are coming to town this weekend and he’s not impressed. But perhaps even ballsier than saying that he doesn’t think Gronk “is as great as people think he is,” was him saying that he could play in the NHL with just six months of training. That is despite the fact that he has never skated. That is a lie that Saul Goodman himself would be proud of.
It’s also an epic troll job. The number of NHL players bent out of shape over it is incredible.
Jesus Christ guys, get a grip. Everyone talks about how easygoing hockey players are, but these guys seem like an easy group to get a reaction out of. A football player was talking out of his ass guys, not disrespecting your sport. Disrespecting your sport might sound like someone calling it the fifth-most popular sport in the United States after football, basketball, baseball and college football. Hypothetically speaking.
Shout out to the Springfield Thunderbirds, though. They get it.
That’s an A+ response to Ramsey’s claim that he could play in the NHL. That team’s social media manager deserves a raise.
I don’t think his Patriots trash talk will have any impact on Sunday’s game and I don’t believe he will ever play in the NHL, but goddammit do I respect him for having the balls to make these outrageous statements.
It’s one thing to call Josh Allen and Joe Flacco trash because they are in fact not good at football. However, when Jalen Ramsey starts chirping Rob Gronkowski it kind of rings false.
“I don’t think Gronk’s good,” Ramsey told ESPN.com’s Mina Kimes in a story that was published late last month. He then clarified: “Let me say — I don’t think Gronk is as great as people think he is.”
If I know the Patriots, and I like to think I do, these guys love nothing more than stomping on the heads of their loudest and cockiest enemies before dancing on their graves. With that being said, are Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski going to make a orphans out of Jalen Ramsey’s children?
Not that good? Lets see…Gronk was voted the No. 1 tight end in the league by his peers last year, he is a 4x All-Pro, and thats before we even get into his career stats.
4th all time in Touchdowns for a TE
11th all time in Receiving Yards for a TE
21st all time in Receptions for a TE
1st all time in Receiving Yards per Game for a TE
All of that despite being *92nd* in Career Games Played for a TE. Gronk is one of the all-time greats and a hands down first ballot Hall of Famer at the ripe old age of 29.
Yet Jalen Ramsey has decided to put a target on his back by chirping Gronk for some reason.
Jaguars CB Jalen Ramsey on facing Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski. Ramsey previously said he didn’t think Gronk “is as great as people think he is.” pic.twitter.com/23erBn80vM
In the run-up to a December clash between the two AFC powerhouses in 2007, second year Steelers safety Anthony Smith guaranteed a win against the (undefeated) Patriots. When asked about it, he doubled down
Brady and the Patriots not only heard Smith, they went directly at him when the game began. Randy Moss caught a 63-yard touchdown running past Smith. And the Patriots used a double pass play to exploit Smith for a second score
Brady himself found Smith after one score, making sure his thoughts were understood.
Tom Brady and Randy Moss took that to heart and ruthlessly attacked Smith, roasted him, and just went out of their way to embarrass the guy on national TV for having the gall to question the Patriots.
Hell even Belichick got into the mud to put the finishing touches on the battered, bruised and beaten safety.
“We’ve played against a lot better safeties than him, I’ll tell you,” said the Patriots coach. By the game’s end, the stats told a stark picture. The Patriots passed 46 times for 399 yards and four touchdowns, barely bothering with a run game.
Now obviously Jalen Ramsey is no Anthony Smith, rather he was All-Pro last season, but you keep knocking on the devils door and sooner or later someone’s going to answer.
After a solid performance against the Texans at home in Week 1, the Patriots already have their first tough matchup of the year. This Sunday, they’re set to square off on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who, were it not for a big fourth-quarter Patriots comeback – capped off by a HUGE touchdown from Danny “Playoff” Amendola with 2:48 remaining – would have been last year’s AFC champions.
As always, here’s a quick snapshot of when, where, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:
Somehow, the Patriots are favored in this one, but BUYER BEWARE. I don’t know if people are still somehow basing their opinion off of old, outdated perceptions, but these ain’t your granddaddy’s Jaguars.
Again, this is a team that was leading 20-10 early on in the fourth quarter against the Pats in last year’s AFC championship, and one that is bringing back pretty much every starter from a truly stifling defense that finished second in both yards allowed and points per game allowed in 2017. They also finished second in both sacks and interceptions to boot. Point being: their D is absolutely lethal, perhaps even “all-time” good. (Yes, they really are that freakin’ good.)
Jalen Ramsey (left) and A.J. Bouye (right) form unquestionably the best corner pairing in the game right now.
On the offensive side of things, the Jags are not quite as daunting, but they’re certainly not bereft of talent. Stud running back Leonard Fournette is expected to play, as long as his hamstring, which forced him out of action early on in Week 1, holds up at practice on Friday:
It’s the Patriots game. Only way Fournette is missing that is if there’s a setback. Hard to do with more rest. So, I’d relax. @_fournette also gotta keep snacking on kale, avocado, beans, & nuts etc.. #AntiCrampingFoods and of course stay hydrated. https://t.co/zuo4ohtoaN
Even though the Pats held him to just 3.2 yards per carry in January, he’s still probably one of the game’s best. Also, backup T.J. Yeldon, one of this week’s hottest fantasy pickups, is no slouch either; he finished the game with almost 70 total yards in relief of Fournette last Sunday, and let’s not forget he averaged 5.2 yards per carry as the team’s backup ball-carrier last year. Both backs can also catch balls out of the backfield, so the Pats will need to watch out for them all over the field on Sunday.
Fortunately, the Jaguars have Blake Bortles and a depleted receiving corps responsible for the other half of the offense. Bortles is perhaps one of the most intriguing players in the entire league; here’s a guy who’s thrown over 20 touchdowns in three straight seasons, including 35 of them in 2015, but one who has also thrown 48 picks over that same time frame and can oftentimes look like a lost Pop Warner player on the field.
To be fair, though, Bortles did come on strong toward the end of last season, and he played very well in the AFC championship (23/36, 293 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 98.5 RTG). You could do a lot worse than him at quarterback, and if you’re not careful he can flame you. However, after letting Allen Hurns walk this offseason and losing Marquis Lee for the year due to injury, the Jags receiving corps is still trying to flesh itself out. Besides Keelan Cole – who I’m expecting a big year from and who truly might’ve been one of the best receivers in the NFL over the last five or so weeks of 2017 – it’s a lot of young, highly-drafted guys (Dede Westbrook, D.J. Chark) or extremely overrated veterans (Donte Moncrief, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins) to choose from for Blakey Boy.
Stephon Gilmore and the rest of the secondary should be able to keep Bortles and the receivers at bay in this one, but Fournette and Yeldon could do some work against a Pats defense that gave up the second most receiving yards out of the opposing backfield last season. The Patriots also allowed the Texans to rush for over five yards per carry as a team last week – even when taking Deshaun Watson out of the picture and only accounting for their running backs – so the team could struggle to stop the ground game this week.
Though he was sacked three times, Brady played great against the Jags in January (26/38, 290 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT, 108.4 RTG), but with much less to work with in terms of talent around him, things could be a bit more difficult this time around. Jalen Ramsey should be able to lock down Hogan (if, of course, he’s not on Gronk instead) and A.J. Bouye should be able to take care of whoever else. (Yeah, I know how good Phillip Dorsett looked last week, but don’t expect a repeat performance in Jacksonville.) Rex Burkhead and James White will likely be relied upon heavily again down in the Sunshine State as well.
Storylines to Keep an Eye On
(Can Trent Brown and the Boys Up Front Keep it Up?): Brown passed his first test in a Patriots uniform last week against a strong Texans pass-rush, but Houston’s front pales in comparison to the group the Jags possess. From monster-man Calais Campbell (12.5 sacks in 2017) to guys like Dante Fowler, Yannick Ngakoue, and Malik Jackson, Brown and the rest of the O-line are going to have their hands full once again.
(Will We See Sony Michel?/Running Back Rotation): After missing Week 1 while still recovering from a knee injury, rookie Sony Michel has been participating in positional drills once again at practice this week. While there’s been no real indication from anyone of note as to whether or not he’ll play this Sunday, Kevin Duffy of the Boston Herald points out that the rookie is hopeful:
“I’m doing all I can do to prepare,” Michel said in his first interview since suffering the knee injury. “Whatever coach’s plan is, I don’t know what his plan is, but my mindset is prepare as if I’m playing.”
After losing Jeremy Hill for the season this week to an ACL tear, Michel would certainly be a welcomed presence. I am unsure if the team wants the rookie to begin his NFL life against such a tough defense, but then again Bill is certainly not averse to throwing people right into the fire. If not, then newly signed Kenjon Barner might get a little more run than expected. Kenneth Farrow (Melvin Gordon’s backup with the then-San Diego Chargers in 2016) or preseason standout Ralph Webb could also get promoted from the practice squad. Otherwise, Burkhead and White are both going to be in for a long afternoon.
Come ahhhn, Sony. We’re getting anxious over here.
Prediction
The Patriots come out trying to establish the run and are not so successful. With Hogan and Gronk being locked down by the Jags secondary, this ultimately causes Brady to have to force balls to the likes of Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson, and that doesn’t go so well. Meanwhile, Bortles is able to move the ball a little better than expected against the Pats defense, to the tune of 300 yards and two scores. Brady, as he always does, finds a way to finally punch one or two in later in the game. Unfortunately, though, the Jags win out in the end 20-14.
The 300s 