Tag: NFL Gambling

Gridiron Tales Week 3: Back The Cats In Houston Edition

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Fantasy football running back depth charts: Safest backfields, committees, handcuffs for 2021 - DraftKings Nation

Last Week: 0-5 (-5 units)

Recap: A lot of bad things occurred; nothing more, nothing less.

First Thursday Pick: Christian McCaffrey O5.5 receptions (-115)

Fact #1: CMC has logged 9 and 5 catches, respectively, over the past two games and the latter came through roughly three quarters of play before he got hurt and did not return.

Fact #2: The Texans have given up an average of 4.5 catches to RBs over the first two weeks.


Second Thursday Pick: Chuba Hubbard O2.5 rec yards (-115)

Fact #1: After playing just 11% of the snaps in Week 1 vs the Jets (a close game), CMC’s injury + the score, raised that percentage to 25% in Week 2 vs the Saints.

Logic point #1: Many pundits except this game to be a very one-sided affair and at just 2.5 rec yards, he literally needs just one catch to make this come to fruition.

Fact #2: This will somehow be a game-long sweat!

Third Thursday Pick: Anthony Miller O22.5 rec yds (-120)

Fact #1: It’s his Texans debut!

Fact #2: Both Danny Amendola and Nico Miller are out with injuries.

Fact #3: I’m skeptical on the Panthers Defense because their first test was Zach Wilson in his NFL debut and their second test was the Saints without eight coaches, most of which were on the offensive side of the ball.

Week 17 Gridiron Tales: The What to Make of This Weird Slate Edition

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Kirk Cousins Fantasy football start/sit advice: What to do with the Vikings QB in Week 14 - DraftKings Nation

Last week: 1-5… woof!

Season: 25-18

Recap: I, like many, thought the Eagles were going to have their will on offense against the Cowboys shaky defense. Late Spoiler: That didn’t happen.

As I said in the title, this slate of games is weird because while seeding and playoff spots are up for grabs, so many notable players are out today:

And Schefter had two more tweets of players out for Sunday!


First Pick: Calvin Ridley O87.5 receiving yards vs TB (-124)

Fact #1: Ridley has four straight games with 100+ receiving yards, including a matchup two weeks ago against the Bucs (14 targets, 10 catches, 163 yards, TD

Fact #2: Ridley is 137 receiving yards behind Stefon Diggs for the receiving title and the Bills will reportedly be doing what’s best for their “team and their players.” So yes, I’m saying there’s a chance…

Fact #3: The Bucs defense has allowed four different receivers to eclipse 88 rec yards over their last five games. In fact, the lowest of those four tallies is 130 yards by Robert Woods.


Second Pick: Kirk Cousins O22.5 completions (-112) vs DET

Fact #1: Cousins has eclipsed 23+ completions in five straight contests

Fact #2: You may look at the first matchup from Week 9 and have some questions about why Cousins only had 13 completions. The reason is Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison combined for 275 yards and 2 scores on 34 carries.

Fact #3: The only real fear is a trilogy of poor defense from the Lions in this one, which is what caused both Ryan Tannehill (21 comps, 273 yds, 3 TD) and Tom Brady (22 comps, 348 yds, 4 TD) to largely sit out the second half of their games.

So based on fact #3, you should also play Kirk Cousins O2.5 pass TDs (+120)

That is what we call a segue “in the biz”

Fact #1: The Lions defense has allowed a whopping 17 pass TDs over the last five weeks (most in NFL) with 0 INT!

Which leads us to the next segue…

Fourth pick is Vikings Team Total O28.5 points (-107)

Fact #1: The Lions have allowed 30+ in five straight contests.


Fifth Pick is Mike Glennon O20.5 completions vs IND (+100)

Fact #1: The Colts have allowed an average of 27.4 completions to QBs over the last five weeks

Fact #2: The only way Mike Glennon doesn’t hit 21 completions is him being benched for Minshew, which better not happen.

Gridiron Tales Week 16 Continued: A Thousand Miles (Sanders) Edition

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Eagles RB Miles Sanders week-to-week with lower body injury

Saturday: 0-2

Season: 24-15

Recap: See, what had happened was no one can predict injuries, let alone Stafford suffering an ankle injury early in the first quarter that would naturally sink his completions prop, while also ensuring that Leonard Fournette would only have to play the first half because the Bucs were on fire. We wish Matthew a speedy recovery.

But it’s a new day! Yes, it is!



The First Pick: Miles Sanders O80.5 rushing yards vs DAL (-112)

Fact #1: The Cowboys have allowed 146.2 rushing yards per game over the last 5 weeks, which is the 2nd-most yards allowed over that span.

Fact #2: The Cowboys have allowed 3 RBs (Dalvin Cook, Antonio Gibson and Gus Edwards) to each eclipse 100 yards on the ground.

Fact #3: Miles did eclipse 81 rush yards against the Saints (115), so we know he can do this with Hurts being more mobile than Wentz.


Second Pick: D.K. Metcalf U70.5 receiving yards vs LAR (-112)

Fact #1: Jalen Ramsey is on the other side of the ball.

Fact #2: The last time Ramsey was on the other side of the ball, Metcalf was held to 4 targets and 2 catches for 28 yards.

Fact #3: Metcalf has posted totals of 61 (vs NYJ) and 43 (at WFT) over the past two weeks.


Third Pick: Jalen Hurts O1.5 passing TDs vs DAL (+100)

Fact #1: The only QBs not to pass for at least 2 scores against Dallas this season are Jared Goff (Week 1), Daniel Jones (Week 5), Alex Smith (Week 12) and Brandon Allen (Week 14). Yes, that means Wentz threw 2 scores on Dallas in the first meeting!

Fact #2: Hurts is coming off a 3-pass TD game against Arizona and this game could very much mirror that one for him.


Fourth Pick: Justin Herbert O24.5 completions vs DEN (-112)

Fact #1: In the first matchup, he totaled 29 back in Week 8, albeit with Keenan Allen in the lineup.

Fact #2: Mahomes (25), Bridgewater (30) and Josh Allen (28) have each completed 25+ passes on Denver’s defenses over the last 3 weeks.

Fact #3: Herbert has completed 25+ passes in three of his last 4 games.

Bonus: With many receivers down in this Browns-Jets game, I have to put a sprinkle on fellow Owl Harrison Bryant to score a TD (+300)

Gridiron Tales Week 16: Thy Rod and Thy (Matthew) Stafford, They Comfort Me Edition

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Last Week: 4-2

Season: 24-13

Recap: After a disappointing start with the Saturday games, DeAndre Hopkins and Rashard Higgins provided us with a 3-0 Sunday/Monday bounce back.


Today’s Pick: Matthew Stafford O23.5 completions vs TB (-112)

Fact #1: Tampa has allowed the 4th-most completions over the past five weeks (33.5 per game), despite only playing four games in this span.

Fact #2: Since Week 7, Teddy Bridgewater (18 in Week 10) is the only opposing QB that hasn’t reached at least 24 completions vs TB.

Fact #3: Stafford is averaging 25.3 completions over his last four, including 24+ in three of those contests.


Second Pick: Leonard Fournette O65.5 rushing yards vs DET (-118)

Fact #1: The Bucs are again without Ronald Jones.

Fact #2: Over the last three weeks, the Lions have allowed David Montgomery (72), Aaron Jones (69) and Derrick Henry (147) to all eclipse 65 rushing yards.

Fact #3: Fournette turned 14 rushes in 49 yards and two scores last week against a much better run defense in Atlanta, so one can reasonably assume he reaches his total against a struggling run defense.

Gridiron Tales Week 15 Continued: Late Slate WR Edition

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Saturday: 1-2

Season: 21-13

Recap: Missing the Lock prop by 2 completions is infuriating when you realize that they ran the clock out with 3 straight runs to end the game. Tonyan had 2 catches in the first quarter and just one over the final three, but the TD prop did cash.

Today’s Pick: DeAndre Hopkins O87.5 receiving yards (-112) and O7.5 catches (+106) vs PHI

Fact #1: Eagles top corner Darius Slay is out today… not like that has appeared to matter the past couple of weeks

Fact #2: The Eagles have allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to WRs over the last five weeks (943)

Fact #3: Hopkins has 24 targets (8 and 9 catches, respectively) over the last two games

Fact #4: The Eagles have surrendered 8+ catches to DK Metcalf (10), Davante Adams (10) and Michael Thomas (8) over their last three games


2nd Pick: Rashard Higgins O51.5 receiving yards (+100) vs NYG

Fact #1: I hate picking props against my team

Fact #2: Higgins has 95 and 68 yards, respectively over his last two games while also seeing his snap % increase over each of the past five games

Fact #3: The Giants will be without top cornerback James Bradberry, who is on the Covid list

Gridiron Tales Week 15: It’s Saturday (Oooh! Ooooh!) Football Edition

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Last Week: 2-2

Season: 20-11

Highlight the Highs: David Montgomery is in a groove right now and no one plays catch-up football like Kirk Cousins

Loathe the Lows: The Chargers continue to play funk 4th quarter football as last week’s game vs ATL and now Thursday’s tilt against the Raiders showed. Also, Mike Glennon was well on his way to reaching his completion total until he was benched due to his defense not tackling Derrick Henry.

But today is a special day. Why? Because we get NFL games + it’s Saturday!

And now that you’ve been all in your feelings about how awesome 2001 music was, I bring you today’s first pick:


Drew Lock O21.5 completions (-118) vs BUF

Fact #1: Lock is coming off his best game of the season last week against the Panthers (280 and 4 scores)

Fact #2: Buffalo is allowing an average of 24 completions per game on the road compared to 22.9 at home

Fact #3: Buffalo has allowed four of its last five opponents to complete at least 22 completions, including Russell Wilson (28), Kyler Murray (22), Justin Herbert (31) and Nick Mullens (26).



Robert Tonyan O3.5 receptions (-124) vs CAR

Fact #1: The Panthers have allowed 27 catches to TE over the past 5 weeks — T-5th-most in the NFL over that span — despite only playing 4 games (Avg: 6.75)

Fact #2: Tonyan has 4+ catches in four straight games, including a TD in each of those contests

Fact #3: Since Week 8, Hayden Hurst (5), Travis Kelce (10), T.J. Hockenson (4), Kyle Rudolph (7) and both Nick Vannett (4) and Troy Fumagalli (4) have all caught at least four passes against Carolina.

TLDR: Every TE except Gronk (Bucs) has reached at least 4 receptions against the Panthers since Week 8.

Bonus: Panthers have allowed 3 TE TDs over their last four games, which when combined with Tonyan’s current TD streak, makes it worth a sprinkle at the very least (+160 anytime TD)

Gridiron Tales Week 14: You Like That Edition

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Last week: 4-0

Season: 18-9

Highlight the Highs: Everything went well last week, including a Tuesday night special that saw Andy Dalton go over with his completions.

Nothing to loathe when you go 4-0!


The pick: Mike Glennon O23.5 completions (-106) vs Titans

Fact #1: The Titans defense is allowing an average of 26.2 completions per game — the most in the NFL over the past 5 weeks

Fact #2: Glennon turned 31 on Saturday, so this would be a great present to himself and over suitors

Fact #3: They’ll be playing catch-up when their defense lets Mr. Henry run all over them

The pick: Kirk Cousins O22.5 completions (-118) vs the Buccaneers

Fact 1: The Bucs have allowed an average of 31.3 completions per game over the past five weeks — the most in the NFL over this span (4 games played)

Fact #2: Tompa Bay has allowed the fewest rushing yards to RBs over this same 5-week span (233; 58.3 rush yds/game). So as great as Mr. Cook is, Tompa Bay is built to slow him down.

Fact #3: Since Week 7, Teddy “2 Gloves” (18) is the only QB not to complete at least 23 passes against Tompa Bay.

James Koh on Twitter: "PODCAST! Broncos insider @TroyRenck gives us the latest news regarding Kirk Cousins and how keeping or cutting Emmanuel Sanders/Demaryius/CJ Anderson will play a role in signing him. https://t.co/gtQRqGUdD2…

The Pick: Justin Herbert O274.5 passing yards (-129) vs ATL

Fact #1: Everyone and their mother expects Herbert to bounce back after last week’s 45-0 drubbing at the hands of new England

Fact #2: Herbert has attempted 154 passes over the past 3 games, resulting in totals of 366 (vs NYJ), 316 (@ BUF) and 209 against New England last week

Fact #3: The Falcons have allowed the 9th-fewest passing yards over the past 5 weeks for two reasons:

Reason No. 1: They’ve faced Taysom Hill twice

Reason No. 2: They’ve played four games when most have played five (bye week)

Fact #4: Herbert averages 314.8 pass yards per game at home compared to 267 on the road

The Pick: David Montgomery O67.5 rushing yards (-112) vs HOU

Fact #1: Montgomery has eclipsed 70 rushing yards in three of his last four games

Fact #2: The Texans have allowed a league-high 620 rushing yards over the last five weeks

The 300s Bloggers’ Fantasy Football Round Up – Week 1

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Hey Everybody,

So I am going to start posting this every week. An opportunity for you the reader  to both revel and commiserate with your favorite (Me, maybe Big Z) or least favorite (Bills Fan) 300s blogger. So without further or do……….

Papa Giorgio
(Joey B’s Note: PG’s starting quarterback IRL is Nathan Peterman)

“Two words: Total Domination. Was it easy? No. Did I almost throw up blood when Aaron Rodgers was carted off the field with a knee injury? You betcha! Someone I managed to come out of week one 3-0 in all my leagues combined. As someone who does not take fantasy football too seriously, it was a nice start to what inevitably will be a horrifying, disastrous finish.”

Big Z

“I kept Le’Veon Bell in My keeper league. I picked up James Conner as his handcuff, but played Devonta Freeman instead in Week 1. Figured Pittsburgh had lots of other weapons, and might not lean too heavily on the second year player. Conner outscored Freeman by a cool 28 points, as I lost my Week 1 matchup by 12.”

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Joey B

I had a solid, straightforward week 1 win. I only do one team because I honestly just can’t keep track of more than one. Team-wise, I grabbed Gronk in the first because it’s smart and I picked up/started James Connor because the Steelers have relied heavily on the run since Lincoln still had the back of his head. The only thing grinding my gears a bit is that I lost out on the league high score for the week because rather than having even an underwhelming, sub-average game Matthew Stafford shat the bed completely. Oh well, 1-0.

Now we get to the absolute novels written by Red and MATTES GOOOODDDAMN. Asked these guys for a blurb on their fantasy football week and I got Will Hunting’s thesis on the market economy in the southern colonies.

Red

“Ya know, I was initially pretty upset about accidentally drafting Matt Stafford in the 8th round because time ran out on my pick, but now? Well now I’m fucking furious. Thats what I get for playing chicken with the Yahoo fantasy football draft pick timer.

I won a fantasy league I was in with Donovan McNabb as my QB that I picked up in like the 15th round. It was his last year in Philly and his last year as a productive NFL starter, which was perfect for me. Drafting a QB late has been my template ever since. Welp, not this year.

Sure you could attribute my opening day loss to lack of preparation (I didn’t buy an $11 draft magazine this year) or the fact that I continue to rely on Seahawks running backs not named Marshawn Lynch prior to 2015, but I prefer to point out that Matthew Stafford threw 4 picks in the same week Alvin Kamara dropped 38 points on me.

Here’s to hoping Sam Darnold continues to do just what I had hoped and throw the ball to my sleeper pick, Quincy Enunwa, more than anyone else on the Jets. Quincy had 10 targets last night compared to 11 for the rest of the team combined.

On my bench, of course.

Goddamnit, why do I play this game?”

 

Mattes

“I tell ya, it really sucks to be 0-2 after just one week of football. BOTH sqauds lost this weekend, and neither matchup was close in either league. Even worse is the fact I was expected to be the week’s high-scorer in my full-point PPR league – with guys like Larry Fitz, Michael Thomas, David Johnson, and Jarvis Landy – but only two of those guys actually showed up. There was a few fleeting minutes of hope in my matchup against our very own Papa Giorgio, when Aaron Rodgers looked like he was about to be placed on the shelf for the second straight season. But alas, the legend came back and put up another THIRTY-TWO points to crush my Week 1 dreams. Although, with Amari Cooper putting up two whole points on Monday night, maybe it wouldn’t have mattered anyway. It also didn’t help to have the Saints defense in both leagues, who fell victim to some serious FitzMagic and blew chunks in their home opener. In one league, the got me -4, and the other they got me -8.

So I literally would’ve been better off not even starting a D/ST this week. COOL. I did have one particular Saints player, though, who went absolutely BANANAS, catching 16 balls for 180 yards and a score; his name is Michael Thomas, as previously mentioned, and I’m glad I snagged him for the second year in a row. Jordan Howard and Carlos Hyde look like a decent back pairing in one league, but David Johnson and Alex Collins didn’t live up to expectations in the other. Hopefully Kerryon Johnson, my sneaky pick for Rookie of the Year, takes the job away from a hopefully-washed-up LeGarrette Blount and serves as a solid No. 3 behind Howard and Hyde. And if Rex Burkhead ends up being the Patriots offensive MVP, as I predicted in the Pats preview podcast, I could be OK in my other league, too. Russell Wilson also proved he’s matchup-proof, putting up over 30 against a nasty Broncos D. Philip Rivers and Kirk Cousins look like a solid pairing in my two-QB league as well, so I’m not getting too down after the first week. It can only go up from here…right?”